Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Group 2: Core View - On Friday, iron ore prices declined both during the day and in the night session. Although iron ore inventory continued to rise and approached 180 million tons, the inventory pressure was expected to be acceptable and would not drive the price down. The rigid demand for iron ore was unlikely to increase as the change in molten iron production was minimal approaching the holiday. It is expected that the lower limit of 750 for the iron ore futures main contract before the holiday would still serve as strong support. Traders were advised to hold light positions or be out of the market approaching the holiday [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Review - Iron ore prices declined on Friday and in the night session [1] Important Information - The China National Machinery Industry Federation predicted that the growth rate of the main indicators of the machinery industry in 2026 would be around 5.5% [1] - The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in January 2026 was 51%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The China Construction Machinery Association reported that the operating rate of excavators in China in January 2026 was 48.6% [1] - Last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills across the country was 103.1664 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.4805 million tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by the sampled steel mills was 282,240 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,290 tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 36.55 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 days [1] - Last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 179.1468 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.5642 million tons; the total inventory at 45 ports was 171.4071 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.1845 million tons [1] - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.53%, a week - on - week increase of 0.53 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points. The daily average molten iron output was 2.2858 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.006 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0014 million tons [1] Market Logic - The current daily molten iron output was 2.2858 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.006 million tons. As the holiday approached, the change in molten iron production was minimal, so the rigid demand for iron ore was unlikely to increase. Iron ore inventory continued to rise and approached 180 million tons. After comprehensively analyzing the inventory structure, it was expected that the inventory pressure was acceptable and would not drive the price down [1] Trading Strategy - It was expected that the lower limit of 750 for the iron ore futures main contract before the holiday would still serve as strong support. Traders were advised to hold light positions or be out of the market approaching the holiday [1]

| | 3、仔猪数量来看，2025年1-9月新生仔猪数量环比持续增加（仅7月环比下降），对 | | --- | --- | | | 应今年3月前生猪出栏头数仍呈增加趋势；2025年10、11、12月新生仔猪连续3个月 | | | 环比下降，分别下降1%、0.8%、1.2%，对应今年4月起供给压力有所缓解。 | | | 4、体重来看，生猪出栏体重环比继续回落。截至2月5日生猪出栏均重为124.27公斤 | | | ，较前一周减少0.23公斤，环比降幅扩大。 | | | 5、肥标价差来看，2月6日生猪肥标价差为0.47元/斤，较前一日持平。 | | | 6、仓单数量来看，2月6日生猪期货仓单较前一日增减0手，共计647手。 | | | 7、2月6日农业农村部发布 "关于落实《中共中央国务院关于锚定农业农村现代化 | | | 扎实推进乡村全面振兴的意见》的实施意见"，文件提及'强化生猪产能综合调控 | | | ，对头部生猪养殖企业实行年度生产备案管理，有序调控全国能繁母猪存栏量，促 | | | 进市场供需更加适配。 | | | 【市场逻辑】 | | | 短期来看，本周进入春节前集中备货阶段，养殖端积极出栏，生猪市场 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 9 日星期一 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周五夜盘瓶片主力价格 6122 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6235 元/吨（+0），华南 瓶片价格 6250 元/吨（+0）。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 973 手至 7.39 万手，空头持 仓减少 1425 手至 7.7 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | | 【重要资讯】 1、供应和成本利润方面，本周国内聚酯瓶片产量为 30.3 万吨，环比+0.38 万吨。 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 65.4%，环比+0.8%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5662 元， 环比-151 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-26 元/吨，环比+22 元/吨。 2、2025 年 12 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 58.87 万吨，较上月增加 5. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond futures in the macro and finance sector is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Friday, the main contracts of bond futures opened higher across the board and fluctuated upwards throughout the day, with the 30-year variety showing stronger performance. The 1-year inflation expectation in the US dropped from 4% to a 13-month low of 3.5%. The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, falling back below the boom-bust line. The bond futures may fluctuate in the short term, and trading investors are advised to conduct band operations [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday, the main contracts of bond futures opened higher across the board and fluctuated upwards throughout the day. The 30-year bond futures main contract TL2603 rose 0.42%, the 10-year T2603 rose 0.08%, the 5-year TF2603 rose 0.03%, and the 2-year TS2603 rose 0.02%. The Wind All A index opened lower, rose in the morning session, and slightly declined in the afternoon, closing down 0.19% from the previous trading day, forming a small Yang line with an upper shadow, with a trading volume of 2.16 trillion yuan, a slight contraction compared to the previous trading day's 2.19 trillion yuan [1][2] Important Information - Open market: On Friday, the central bank conducted 31.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations and 300 billion yuan of 14-day reverse repurchase operations. With 477.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 146 billion yuan. - Money market: On Friday, the overnight interbank funding market rate remained flat compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.32%, and that of DR007 was 1.48%. - Cash bond market: On Friday, the closing yields of interbank government bonds declined compared to the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of the 2-year government bond dropped 0.37 BP to 1.36%, the 5-year dropped 1.34 BP to 1.56%, the 10-year dropped 0.67 BP to 1.81%, and the 30-year dropped 2.00 BP to 2.25%. - US policy: The US President signed an executive order to impose tariffs on countries trading with Iran, but no new tariffs have been added for now. The US and Iran held "very good talks," and the US will negotiate with Iran again next week. - US inflation expectation: The 1-year inflation expectation in the US dropped from 4% to a 13-month low of 3.5% [1] Market Logic - In January, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, falling back below the boom - bust line, with the new order index at 49.2%, indicating a decline in manufacturing market demand. The business activity index of the construction industry in January was 48.8%, and that of the service industry was 49.5%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month. The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at a necessary level. The central bank governor said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [1][2] Trading Strategy - Trading investors are advised to conduct band operations [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - 1 - month official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, back below the boom - bust line, with a decline in manufacturing market demand; construction and service business activity indices were weak; the Ministry of Finance will maintain necessary levels of fiscal deficit, debt, and expenditure; the central bank governor said there is room for RRR and interest rate cuts this year; the Wande All - A Index was slightly weak this week, and capital interest rates fell compared to last week; treasury bond futures rose overall, and may fluctuate slightly upward in the short term [39] - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [40] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Market Review - This week, most treasury bond futures main contracts showed a trend of hitting bottom and then rebounding. The 30 - year variety was strong. The 30 - year treasury bond rose 0.63% for the whole week, the 10 - year rose 0.12%, the 5 - year rose 0.06%, and the 2 - year rose 0.06% [5] - As of February 6, compared with January 30, the treasury bond spot yield curve shifted downward overall, with the ultra - long end shifting down slightly more. The 2 - year yield dropped 2 BP to 1.36%, the 5 - year dropped 2 BP to 1.56%, the 10 - year remained flat at 1.81%, and the 30 - year dropped 4 BP to 2.25% [7] 3.2 January Manufacturing PMI Data - January manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, back in the contraction range, with large enterprises continuing to expand and medium - and small - sized enterprises' prosperity declining [10] - The production index was 50.6% and the new order index was 49.2%, indicating continued expansion in production but a decline in market demand. The procurement volume index was 48.7%, falling below the boom - bust line [13] - The new export order index was 47.8% and the import index was 47.3%. The new export order index declined compared to December [16] - The main raw material purchase price index and the ex - factory price index were 56.1% and 50.6% respectively, both expanding compared to the previous month. The average value of the South China Industrial Products Index rose 4.4% month - on - month and fell 4.75% year - on - year [18] - The raw material inventory index was 47.4% and the finished product inventory index was 48.6%. Inventory remained stable, and the profits of large - scale manufacturing enterprises increased in 2025 [21] - The manufacturing employment index was 48.1%, with little change in the employment prosperity level. The production and operation activity expectation index was 52.6%, indicating a decline in future prosperity expectations [24] 3.3 January Non - manufacturing Business Activity Index Data - The non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.4%. The construction business activity index was 48.8%, and the service business activity index was 49.5%, falling below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month [27] - The construction new order index was 40.1%, the employment index was 41.1%, and the business activity expectation index was 49.8%, all showing a decline [30] - The service new order index was 47.1%, the employment index was 47.0%, and the business activity expectation index was 57.1%, slightly rising. The input price index was 49.7% and the sales price index was 48.9%. Financial and insurance industries were active, while the real estate industry was weak [33] 3.4 Capital Interest Rate and Market Operation - This week, capital interest rates fell compared to last week. DR001 dropped to 1.275%, DR007 dropped to 1.46%, and the one - year AAA inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate dropped to 1.59%. On February 4, the central bank conducted 800 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operations, with 700 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase maturing on the same day [36]

Report Overview - The report reviews the weekly market conditions of the domestic futures market from February 2 - 6, 2026, covering various sectors including agriculture, black commodities, energy and chemicals, and financial futures [1]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market showed a mixed performance this week, with more declining varieties than rising ones in the commodity futures market. Different sectors were affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical events, and policy regulations [1]. Summary by Sector Agricultural Futures - **Corn**: The spot price had a narrow - range fluctuation, with the futures price rising 0.13% and closing at 2274 yuan/ton. Near - term, the spot market will be quiet due to the approaching Spring Festival, and the futures market is expected to trade within a wide range. The 2603 contract has support at 2250 and short - term pressure at 2280 [4]. - **Pig**: The spot price was weak, with the average price on the 6th at 11.96 yuan/kg. The futures price of the 2603 contract dropped 3.21% to 10860 yuan/ton. As the Spring Festival approaches, the average price hovers around 12 yuan/kg. Near - month short positions were suggested to take profits, and far - month short positions were to test the lower support [5][6]. - **Egg**: The egg price dropped sharply and then stabilized, with the Hebei Guantao price at 2.96 yuan/jin on the 6th. The futures price of the 2603 contract fell 3.26% to 2904 yuan/500KG. In the short term, the supply - strong and demand - weak situation may continue to pressure the price. Mid - term, the supply pressure is postponed. Previously held short positions were advised to take profits below 3000, and now it's mainly in a wait - and - see mode [6]. - **Jujube**: The Xinjiang jujube trees are in dormancy, and the Hebei market price is stable. The futures price was weakly oscillating. The supply pressure is the main factor suppressing the price, and the CJ605 contract is expected to seek historical low support. A bearish view is recommended for the medium - to - long - term [6]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar oscillated. The northern beet sugar production is nearly over, and the southern is in the peak season. After the Spring Festival stocking, there is no obvious positive support, but some overseas institutions' reduction of the 2026/27 global sugar surplus may boost the far - month price. It's expected to trade within a range next week [7]. - **Log**: The log futures market is complex. The downstream 3 - meter wood square price in Lanshan is rising, and radiation pine traders' quotes are firm. If the price transmission is smooth, the spot price may rise, and the futures market has some positive factors [7]. - **Apple**: The apple market is structurally differentiated. High - quality apples support the price in the long - term, while ordinary apples face sales pressure. Near the end of the Spring Festival, the market will continue to oscillate widely in the short - term [8]. - **Cotton**: Internationally, cotton supply is tightening, and demand is resilient. Brazilian exports are down, and Australian production is expected to decrease. US net signing and shipping volumes are stable. Domestically, the supply - demand pattern is stable, but demand is seasonally weakening. The Zhengzhou cotton main contract will oscillate between 14500 - 15000 yuan/ton before the Spring Festival [8]. Black Commodities - **Steel Products**: The supply of five major steel products decreased by 0.4% to 819.9 million tons, and the total inventory increased by 4.6% to 1337.75 million tons. Consumption decreased by 5.1%, with a significant drop in building materials and a slight increase in plates. The downstream winter - storage willingness is weak, and the price is expected to remain in the oscillation range before the Spring Festival, with 3050 as strong support for the rebar main contract [9][10]. - **Iron Ore**: Global iron ore shipments and arrivals increased. Domestic mine production decreased, and port inventories continued to accumulate. Iron water production remained stable, and steel mills' pre - holiday replenishment is almost over. The first support for the main contract is 750, the second is 730, and the first pressure is 800, the second is 830 [10]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures oscillated sharply. The supply is decreasing as coal mines close for the holiday, but Mongolian coal imports are high. Steel mills' pre - holiday replenishment is almost done, and the market is expected to oscillate within a range before the Spring Festival [11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Affected by the geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the price fluctuated greatly. The US - Iran negotiation and the US manufacturing PMI affected the market sentiment. Before a conclusion on the US - Iran situation, the price is expected to oscillate upwards [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It was under pressure due to the decline of precious and non - ferrous metals and the strengthening of risk management by the exchange. With the approaching Spring Festival, long - position holders are more willing to close positions. It's expected to oscillate widely between 130,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and a short straddle option strategy can be considered [14]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory is decreasing, and Iranian plants are resuming production. The downstream olefin plant operating rate is low, and the inland market is mainly for inventory clearance. It will continue to oscillate within a range in the short - term [15]. - **Urea**: The seasonal demand is starting, and the upstream inventory pressure is reducing. However, the high - supply situation remains. The price is expected to oscillate strongly within a key range, and investors can wait for price corrections to enter the market [15][16]. - **Bottle Chips**: Affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the fluctuation of crude oil prices, the price followed the raw materials to oscillate widely. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak in the short - term. It's recommended to operate lightly within the 6100 - 6450 yuan/ton range [16]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber oscillated weakly, with cost support from raw materials but weakening demand due to the approaching holiday. Synthetic rubber's BR main contract fell from a high level due to the weakening of raw material cost support and increased market supply. Both are expected to have a weak performance before the Spring Festival [17]. Financial Futures - The new nominee for the Fed Chairman's monetary policy of "rate - cut + balance - sheet reduction" has led to global de - leveraging. The A - share market is in an adjustment period, and the US stock market is accelerating de - leveraging. Before the Spring Festival, it's necessary to prevent the impact of the US stock market on A - shares, and it's recommended to close long positions, reduce equity assets, or hedge risks [18].

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 节前钢矿预计下方空间有限 2026年2月6日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：纪晓云 联系方式：010-56711796 期货从业资格证号：F3066027 期货交易咨询号：Z0011402 钢材观点 钢材：临近春节，钢厂陆续放假，供给下降。钢材持续累库，季节惯性。钢材消费总体下降，其中建材降幅较大，板 材微增，下游需求逐渐减少，市场基本处于半停滞状态。其中建材减量显著，板材消费未明显下降。冬储需求看，下 游冬储意愿仍较弱，今年冬储量普遍低于去年。冬储价格多为3100-3150元/吨，对盘面形成支撑，市场对节后多看稳。 上游焦炭提涨，对盘面形成一定支撑。综合判断，当前成材价格并无明显驱动，螺纹主力3050仍为强支撑，预计节前 难突破震荡区间下沿。 铁矿：本期全球铁矿石发运增加，到港量增加。海外继续维持高发运量，供给端预期增加。国内矿山产量下降，铁矿 供给弹性不足。港口进口铁矿库存持续累库。本期铁水日产228.58万吨，周环比增加0.6万吨，临近假期，铁水产量变 化不大，铁矿刚性需求难有增量。多数钢厂节前补库进入尾声，缺口较小，对铁矿石价格支撑不足。预 ...

市场快讯---COMEX白银向下突破70美元 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，不保证报告信息已做最新变更，也不保证分析师做出的任何建议不会发生任何变更。在任何情况下，报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述 期货品种买卖的出价或询价。在任何情况下，我公司不就报告中的任何内容对任何投资所做出任何形式的担保，投资者据此投资，投资风险自我承担。我公司可能发出与本报告意见不一致的其他报告，本报告反映分析师本人的意见与结论，并不 代表我公司的立场。未经我公司同意，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制或对本报告进行有悖原意的删节和修改。 研究员：刘洋 从业资格 F3063825 交易咨询 Z0016580 联系方式 liuyang18036@greendh.com 格林大华 期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288号 2026年2月6日 2月6日，COMEX白银向下突破70美元/盎司，伦敦现货白银一度跌破67美元/盎司。在本周前三天反弹后， 白银转头向下，创出新低。剧烈的波动，引发连锁反应，市场的踩踏导致暴涨之后暴跌。交易所在短期内多次 提高保证金要求。2月5日 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 6 日星期五 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | 黑色建材 | 钢材 | 震荡 | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 周四螺纹热卷收涨。夜盘收跌。 【重要资讯】 1、2026 年 1 月下旬，重点统计钢铁企业共生产粗钢 2128 万吨，平均日产 193.5 万吨，日产环比下降 2.2%；生铁 1915 万吨，平均日产 174.1 万吨，日产环比下降 3.0%；钢材 2130 万吨，平均日产 193.6 万吨，日产环比增长 3.2%。 2、2026 年 1 月下旬，重点统计钢铁企业钢材库存量 1471 万吨，环比上一旬减少 142 万吨，下降 8.8%；比年初增加 57 万吨，增长 4.0%；比上月同旬增加 57 万吨， 增长 4.0%；比去年同旬减少 64 万吨，下降 4.2%，比前年同旬增加 251 万吨，增长 20.6%。 3、Mysteel：1 月全国 ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 受外盘影响，周四两市主要指数低开下行，下午有所反弹。主要指数呈现破位形态， 叠加纳指趋弱，后市不乐观。两市成交额 2.17 万亿元，继续缩量。沪深 300 指数 收 4670 点，跌 28 点，跌幅-0.60%；上证 50 指数收 3059 点，跌 10 点，跌幅-0.33%； 中证 500 指数收 8146 点，跌 152 点，跌幅-1.84%；中证 1000 指数收 8068 点，跌 | | | | | 139 点，跌幅-1.69%。行业与主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的是银行 ETF 天弘、影视 ETF、 食品 ETF 鹏华、旅游 ETF、消费 ETF 华夏，跌幅居前的是光伏 ETF 华夏、黄金股 ETF 工银、中韩半导体 ETF。两市板块指数中涨幅居前的是影视院线、日用化工、医疗 | | | | | 美容、酒店餐饮、中小银行指数，跌幅居前的是光伏设备、贵金属、工业金属、稀 | | | | IF （弱） | 有金属、风电设备指数。沪深 3 ...