Report Highlights 1. Industry Investment Rating - The macro and global economy is rated as (slightly bullish) [1] 2. Core View - The global economy maintains an upward direction, with the US economy showing signs of expansion, the euro - zone manufacturing stabilizing, and China's manufacturing also having positive developments [1] 3. Summary by Related Content Important Information - The US Senate passed the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill by a narrow margin of 1 vote, and some Democratic senators criticized it as "robbing the poor to help the rich" [1] - In May, US JOLTS job openings were 7.769 million, higher than the expected 7.3 million, and the number of voluntary job - leavers increased from 3.215 million to 3.293 million, indicating a tight labor market [1] - Goldman Sachs believes that the S&P 500 index will continue its upward trend in July and may start to decline next month, driven by improved liquidity, lower volatility, fading recession concerns, and seasonal factors [1] - Last week, the net buying of bank stocks by hedge funds reached the highest level in nearly a decade. Market expectations of banking regulatory relaxation and Fed rate - cut expectations are supporting bank stocks [1] - The price increase of Chinese - made goods sold on the US Amazon website has exceeded the overall US inflation rate, and tariffs are hitting US consumers [1] - Morgan Stanley reported that the US tariff revenue reached an astonishing level, with an annualized tariff revenue of $327 billion in June, equivalent to 1.1% of the US GDP [1] - The euro - zone manufacturing showed signs of stabilization in June, with the PMI rising to 49.5, and the German manufacturing PMI reaching a 34 - month high with new orders growing at a 39 - month high [1] - About one - third of Bank of Japan observers expect the next interest rate hike to be in January next year [1] Global Economic Logic - The US Treasury Secretary expects to sign a series of new trade agreements before July 9. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September [1] - The final value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52.0, continuing to expand. China's June PMI production index continued to expand, and the new order index resumed expansion [1] - China is comprehensively rectifying involution - style competition, and the photovoltaic glass industry has collectively cut production by 30% [1] - The European Central Bank has cut interest rates 8 times. Germany is expanding its military by 30%, which promotes the recovery of European manufacturing prosperity [1] - Musk's Neuralink brain - machine interface has made a major technological breakthrough. Morgan Stanley believes that China may take the lead in the "robot race" due to its manufacturing foundation and policy support [1]

新华社北京7月1日电 中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席、中央财 经委员会主任习近平7月1日上午主持召开中央财经委员会第六次会议,研 会议指出,纵深推进全国统一大市场建设,基本要求是"五统一、一开 放",即统一市场基础制度、统一市场基础设施、统一政府行为尺度、统 一市场监管执法、统一要素资源市场,持续扩大对内对外开放。会议强调, 纵深推进全国统一大市场建设,要聚焦重点难点,依法依规治理企业低价 无序竞争,引导企业提升产品品质,推动落后产能有序退出;规范政府采 购和招标投标,加强对中标结果的公平性审查,规范地方招商引资,加强 招商引资信息披露;着力推动内外贸一体化发展,畅通出口转内销路径, 培育一批内外贸优质企业;持续开展规范涉企执法专项行动,健全有利于 市场统一的财税体制、统计核算制度和信用体系:引导干部树立和践行正 确政绩观,完善高质量发展考核体系和干部政绩考核评价体系。 数据来源:国家统计局,格林大华期货研究院整理 同2024年"924"政策预期推升股股票和期货市场多头情绪一样，新的会议精神再次被解读为供给侧改革2.0版的吹风。从广期所的碳酸 鯉、多晶硅、多晶硅到郑商所的纯碱、玻璃,再到大商所的焦煤焦 ...

2025年07月02日 1、今年春节前后部分地区仔猪腹泻对年中出栏供给形成一定程度的影响。 2、政策指引下集团企业阶段性降重基本完成。5月底政策指引部分集团企业 主动降重,至6月中下旬阶段性降重计划基本完成,体重压力得到部分释放。 3、月底月初规模场常规性出栏节奏放缓,今日猪价涨幅有所扩大。卓创数据 显示,截至6月30日生猪日度出栏量较6月27日减少25.8%、7月1日日度出栏较6 月27日减少19.3%。今日生猪全国均价为15.33元/公斤,较前一日涨0.23元/公斤。 卓创预计明日猪价稳中偏强,河南猪价稳定在15-15.8元/公斤。 > 后市观点 生猪短期出栏缩量现货走强 期货向上修复贴水 今日生猪期货强势拉涨,截至收稿2509合约涨至14300元/吨,涨幅2.95%。 > 上涨驱动分析 > 风险因素:宏观政策、产业政策、疫病风险等。 格林大华 期货研究院 证监许可 [2011] 1288号 张晓君 从业资格:F0242716 交易咨询资格:Z0011864 联系电话0371-65617380 意均采源于公开谈科，我公司对这些信息的能帮位及完整区不作任何保证。不保证报告信息已做最新变更。也不保证分析师做出 ...

格林大华期货研究院专题报告 期货研究院 能源化工 2025年7月2日 能源化工研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格证号： F3085283 交易咨询证号： Z0019267 联系方式： wuzhiqiao@greendh .com 摘要： 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288号 成文时间：2025年7月2日星期三 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 纯苯期货上市前瞻 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 6月27日，中国证监会已同意大连商品交易所纯苯期货和期权注册 ，纯苯期货自2025年7月8日（星期二）上市交易，纯苯期货开展夜盘 交易。首批上市交易合约为BZ2603、BZ2604、BZ2605、BZ2606。 按照目前的供求关系，国内纯苯供减需增，但供应压力仍在于进 口维持高位水平（预计月均进口45万吨水平），静态基本面略好转。 下游五大需求（苯乙烯，己内酰胺，己二酸，苯胺和苯酚）中苯乙烯 和己内酰胺检修结束后产量恢复，将支撑纯苯价格；预计7-8月纯苯基 本面阶段性好转，库存去化但受制于高进口，去库斜率可能偏缓慢。 中长期看，芳烃调油驱动有限，原油消费旺季结束后或面临下行风险 ，纯苯基本 ...

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 7 月 2 日星期三 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周二尿素主力合约 | 2509 | 期价上涨 | 6 | 元至 | 1721 | 元/吨，华中主流地区尿素现货价格稳 | | | | | 定在 | 1780 | 元/吨，多头持仓增加 | 12489 | 手至 | 17.79 | 万手，空头持仓增加 | 11313 | 手至 | 19.43 | 万手。 | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 | 19.86 | 万吨，较上一工作日减少 | 0.12 | 万吨，较去年同 | | | | | | | 期增加 | 2.91 | 万吨；开 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating, but Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight recommendation for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [2] Core View - The market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market. The central financial and economic commission's efforts to promote the construction of a unified national market and regulate disorderly competition among enterprises are expected to boost the performance of listed companies. Multiple foreign capital giants are bullish on Chinese assets, and the reallocation of global financial assets away from the US is expected to accelerate the inflow of international funds into A-shares [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the main indices of the two markets showed strong consolidation and closed slightly higher. The innovative drug sector led the gains. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1.46 trillion yuan, with little change. The CSI 1000 index closed at 6373 points, up 17 points or 0.28%; the CSI 500 index closed at 5934 points, up 19 points or 0.33%; the SSE 50 index closed at 2717 points, up 5 points or 0.21%. The CSI 1000 index futures saw a net inflow of 2.8 billion yuan in precipitation funds [1] Important News - The central financial and economic commission meeting studied the in-depth promotion of the construction of a unified national market, aiming to regulate disorderly low-price competition among enterprises and promote the exit of backward production capacity - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission issued measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, including providing necessary medical insurance data services for R & D - Huawei officially announced the open - source of its Pangu models and related inference technologies - Leading domestic photovoltaic glass enterprises plan to cut production by 30% starting from July, and the domestic glass output in July is expected to drop to about 45GW - Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times by 25 basis points each in September, October, and December this year, and lower the terminal interest rate forecast to 3 - 3.25% - Goldman Sachs expects the profit growth of the S & P 500 in Q2 to slow down significantly to 4%, a two - year low - Morgan Stanley believes that technology giants hope to expand AI tools to the physical world through open - source, and China may lead in the "robot race" - Elon Musk said Neuralink aims to explore the nature of human consciousness and improve the human thinking transmission speed - The US dollar index fell 10.8% in the first half of the year, the worst half - year performance since 1973 - US Treasury Secretary expects to sign a series of new trade agreements before July 9 and believes it is unreasonable to expand the issuance of long - term Treasury bonds [1][2] Market Logic - On Tuesday, the main indices of the two markets showed strong consolidation and closed slightly higher. The central financial and economic commission's meeting on promoting the unified national market and Goldman Sachs' expectation of Fed rate cuts contributed to the market sentiment. Multiple foreign capital giants are bullish on Chinese assets [2] Future Outlook - The central financial and economic commission's efforts to promote the unified national market and regulate competition, the production cuts in the photovoltaic glass industry, the expected Fed rate cuts, and the bullish stance of foreign capital on Chinese assets are all positive factors. The market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market [2] Trading Strategy - For futures trading, be bullish on the four major stock index futures contracts, as growth - style indices have higher elasticity - For option trading, buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on stock indices as the market is expected to trend upward [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore in the black building materials industry is "Oscillating Bullish" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The iron ore market has a strong downward driving force in July, with the upper pressure level of the main contract rising to 738 and the support level at 690. Existing short positions should be held with stop - losses set [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the main iron ore contract closed at 708.5, down 1.32%; the secondary main contract closed at 685.0, down 1.08%. It closed higher in the night session [1] Important Information - The Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission studied issues such as promoting the construction of a unified national market and high - quality development of the marine economy, emphasizing governance of low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises, standardization of government procurement, and promotion of integrated development of domestic and foreign trade [1] - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a 4% month - on - month increase from May and a 29% year - on - year increase from 71,400 vehicles in the same period last year. It has seen three consecutive months of year - on - year growth since April, with the growth rate expanding monthly [1] - The third round and fourth batch of 8 central ecological and environmental protection inspection teams completed the on - site inspection phase in 5 provinces (Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Shaanxi, Ningxia) and 3 central enterprises [1] Market Logic - On Tuesday, the iron ore futures market declined significantly, weaker than the finished steel market, and stopped falling at night. The profit per ton of steel is about 100 yuan, some blast furnaces have resumed production but not at full capacity. The molten iron output remains above 2.4 million tons, close to the phased top and may decline later. The arrival and shipment volumes of iron ore decreased this period, and the port inventory decreased, releasing much inventory pressure [1] Trading Strategy - Hold existing short positions and set stop - losses [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global financial assets are being reallocated, with funds flowing to Chinese assets, and A-shares are expected to evolve into a capital-driven upward trend [2][3][4] - Multiple factors, including US debt monetization, countervailing tariffs, crude oil price surges, and China's anti-involution efforts, are contributing to a global inflationary trend [2][14][18] - Various factors such as Fed rate cut expectations and China's anti-involution are influencing the prices of different asset classes, including equities, commodities, gold, bonds, and foreign exchange [3][4][32] Summary by Related Catalogs Geopolitical Situation - The Israel-Iran ceasefire is a prelude to a larger conflict, and Iran may become "Gaza-like." Israel's actions against Iran are likely to occur in four steps [10] Crude Oil Market - The crude oil price surge in June was likely the first wave. In the context of the Israel-Iran conflict, future disruptions to Iran's oil production and potential blockades of the Strait of Hormuz could cause oil prices to skyrocket, similar to the 1970s [12][16] Global Inflation - US debt monetization, countervailing tariffs, crude oil price pulses, and China's anti-involution efforts are jointly contributing to a global inflationary curve [2][14][18] Global Financial Asset Reallocation - Global investment institutions are "de-Americanizing," selling US stocks, bonds, and the dollar, and reallocating funds to Chinese assets [2][20][23] Equity Market - Global financial asset reallocation and the migration of household savings and insurance funds to the stock market are driving A-shares towards a capital-driven upward trend [2][3][32] Commodity Market - China's anti-involution and Fed rate cut expectations are expected to help industrial product prices recover [3][32][36] Gold Market - Stablecoins are replacing the dollar in trade settlements, accelerating the decline of the dollar's credit, while gold is still in a technical adjustment phase [3][41][43] Bond Market - With a large-scale bond issuance and the central bank removing the mention of "timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts," the bond market faces certain pressures [44] Foreign Exchange Market - China is expected to achieve a double surplus in trade and capital, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is expected to continue strengthening [3][4][45] July Outlook for Various Asset Classes - **Equity Assets**: Global financial asset reallocation and the migration of household savings are driving funds into Chinese equities [4][46] - **Commodities**: Anti-involution and Fed rate cut expectations are expected to boost industrial product prices [4][36][46] - **Gold Assets**: Stablecoins are replacing the dollar in trade, and gold is in a technical adjustment [4][41][46] - **Bond Assets**: The central bank's policy adjustment and large-scale bond issuance are putting pressure on the bond market [4][44][46] - **Foreign Exchange Assets**: A double surplus in trade and capital is expected to strengthen the offshore RMB [4][45][46]

期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 农林畜 2025年07月01日 农产品研究员：张晓君 从业资格证号：F0242716 交易咨询证号：Z0011864 联系方式： 0371-65617380 证监许可【2011】1288号 成文时间：2025年07月01日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 题目 此轮蛋鸡去产能路径的相关思考 目录 一、从养殖利润周期看蛋鸡供给 二、此轮蛋鸡去产能路径的相关思考 1、2020 年价格低点和淘鸡日龄比照关系 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 2020 年低于 3 元/斤持续了半年以上时间，第一个低点出 现在 2 月初，第二个阶段低点出现在 5 月中旬到 6 月中旬。 第一个低点对应的淘鸡日龄仍在 500 天以上，第二个阶段性 低点出现且持续对应的淘鸡日龄跌破 500 天，最低达到 446 天，产能才基本出清。 2、今年与 2020 年对比来看 今年价格第一个低点或出现在 7 月上旬，截至 6 月 30 日 馆陶蛋价 2.49 元/斤，对应淘鸡日龄还在 508 天。按照 2017 以及 2020 年历史情况来看，当前低价持续时间较短，只有出 现第二个低点且持续才能驱 ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 7 月 1 日星期二 早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、达利欧称，在接下来的一年里，美国必须出售大约 12 万亿美元国债。需要 1 万 | | | | | 亿美元支付利息，有 9 万亿美元的债务要偿还，必须再出售 2 万亿美元债务，因为 | | | | | 有赤字 2 万亿美元。债务增长累似动脉斑块淤积，美国财政心脏病会随时发作。 | | | | | 2、尽管共和党参议员勉强凑齐票数开启辩论，但法案的最终通过仍悬而未决，其 | | | | | 潜在的巨额债务规模引发党内外担忧，马斯克称之为"荒唐且具有破坏性"，一些 | | | | | 不寻求连任的参议员对法案投下反对票。 | | | | | 3、高盛认为，美 ...