恒力期货研究院|数据周报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2012]338 号 作者：周云 F03089066 Z0016657 原油运费高位震荡，中东航线有价无市 2026.3.12 1 恒力期货研究院|数据周报 2 一、数据点评 根据最新的运价数据，上周波罗的海原油运价指数+58 点，涨幅 2.02%。受地缘冲突持续 升级及霍尔木兹海峡航运受阻影响，航运市场情绪维持高位。TD3C 中东至中国/TD15 西非至 中国/TD22 美湾至中国运费分别+2.99%/-23.49%/-3.54%。VLCC 运费整体维持高位震荡。受 地缘风险推动，中东航线有价无市特征，运价飙升而市场参与者多持观望态度。霍尔木兹海峡 关闭导致部分东向压载船转向西非，西非航线运价有所回调。此外，本周 Aframax 与 Suezmax 船型运价上涨幅度较为明显。整体来看，地缘风险持续向运价传导，市场波动加剧。 二、数据监控 www.hengliqihuo.com 市场有风险，投资需谨慎 www.hengliqihuo.com 市场有风险，投资需谨慎 恒力期货研究院|数据周报 分析师承诺： 本人具有中国期货业协会授予的期货执业资格或相当的专业 ...

数据周报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2012]338 号 作者：郭瑾雯 F03124046 Z0023457 EIA ——美国丙烷出口迎来转机 2026.3.12 一、数据点评 根据 EIA 于 3 月 11 日发布的数据，截至 3 月 6 日当周，美国丙烷和丙烯库存减少 167.6 万桶，至 7167.5 万桶。库存下降的主要原因是出口增加，出口量环比上升 42.6 万桶/日，达到 203.5 万桶/日，为 2 月以来的最高水平。 后续来看，外部地缘因素正在重塑市场预期。随着中东战事持续，霍尔木兹海峡通行受阻， 已对中东多国的 LPG 生产及出口造成严重影响。当前中东货源无法运出，形成了实质性的全球 供应缺口。即便海峡后续重新开放，装置重启及能源出口的恢复仍需一定时间。这一突发性缺 口，为美国此前高企的库存带来了消化转机。 在此背景下，中国和印度及其他东南亚需求国将被迫在短期内紧急寻找替代供应来源。美 国凭借其充足的出口能力、灵活的贸易流向以及庞大的库存规模，有望成为填补这一缺口的首 选。这种由地缘冲突驱动的贸易流向突变，预计将迅速提振美国丙烷的出口需求，加速其库存 消化进程，从而为其全年价格走势提供有力 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, significantly impacts the prices of various commodities. Oil - related products are particularly sensitive to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, with supply disruptions leading to price fluctuations. - Different industries face different supply - demand dynamics. For example, some industries have supply shortages due to geopolitical factors, while others are affected by domestic policies and seasonal demand. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Oil Products 3.1.1 Crude Oil - Logic: Oil prices dropped significantly during the day as the US - Iran situation showed signs of cooling. - Fundamentals: The Strait of Hormuz is not navigable. Kuwait has stopped oil production, and Iraq has cut production by 70%. Refineries have reduced their operating loads, causing a shortage of refined oil products. The G7 and the IEA are discussing the release of oil reserves, and Saudi Aramco is providing spot oil supplies, which has eased market pressure [3]. - Macro: Geopolitical tensions have led to soaring oil prices, impacting inflation and economic growth. Middle - Eastern countries face increased fiscal pressure, and the market has a short - term risk - aversion tendency [3]. - Geopolitical: The US - Iran conflict is the focus. Trump said the war would end soon, and the oil price showed a downward trend with the cooling of geopolitical tensions. Geopolitical premiums are expected to remain high in the short term [3]. 3.1.2 Fuel Oil - Logic: High - sulfur fuel oil continues to be strong due to supply disruptions in the Middle East, while low - sulfur fuel oil has limited fundamental support [5][6]. - Fundamentals: High - sulfur fuel oil: On March 9, FU hit the daily limit again due to supply cuts in the Middle East. The G7 is discussing the release of strategic oil reserves. The war - risk insurance rate in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz has increased. The high - sulfur internal - external price difference has decreased but is still high. Russian supply disruptions also support high - sulfur fuel oil. Low - sulfur fuel oil: It has risen with crude oil, but the fundamentals are weak. There are new supplies from some refineries, and the demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is weak [5][6]. 3.1.3 LPG - Logic: Be wary of the risk of price decline after continuous increases. - Fundamentals: Geopolitical tensions persist, the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, and the supply of LPG from the Middle East is expected to shrink. Crude oil prices have soared, strengthening cost support. LPG prices at home and abroad have risen significantly. However, there is a risk of a price correction after continuous increases [7]. 3.2 Aromatics - Polyester 3.2.1 PTA - Logic: Pay attention to the latest developments in the geopolitical conflict. - Fundamentals: The TA2605 contract rose 7.53% overnight and significantly reduced its positions. The spot market has a weak trading atmosphere, and the spot basis is strong. PTA production capacity utilization is 81% (+4.4 pct). An PX device in East China has stopped unexpectedly. The demand side shows that the production capacity utilization of polyester, texturing, weaving, and dyeing has increased. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang over the weekend were good, but weak on the day of the report [9]. 3.3 Coal Chemical Industry 3.3.1 Urea - Logic: Supply and policies limit the emotional premium. - Fundamentals: The guidance price restricts the price increase. Factories stabilize prices to fulfill orders, and downstream demand is cautious. The domestic urea market has a situation of both supply and demand being strong. Spring plowing demand is ongoing, and industrial demand is recovering, providing some support to the price. However, the high daily production and the stable guidance price limit the price increase space [11]. 3.3.2 Methanol - Logic: Be wary of the risk of a high - level correction after the overnight plunge in oil prices. - Fundamentals: The energy - chemical sector rose collectively on Monday, but the night session opened high and went low. The near - month contracts did not continue to hit the daily limit due to high port inventories and exchange risk - control measures. The market is worried about the supply disruption of Middle - Eastern goods in the long - term, increasing the activity of far - month contracts. There is a risk of negative feedback from downstream and a disconnection between futures and spot prices [12][13]. 3.4 Salt Chemical Industry 3.4.1 Soda Ash - Logic: High - level fluctuations intensify. - Fundamentals: The short - term spot sentiment follows the futures market. The cost of coal has not increased, and the supply remains high, but the daily output has decreased slightly. The demand is mainly speculative. In the long - term, the high - inventory situation needs to be improved through factory production cuts or increased exports, but the upward driving force is not clear [14]. 3.4.2 Glass - Logic: High - level fluctuations intensify. - Fundamentals: The spot sentiment has improved, following the futures market. Two production lines were shut down, reducing the supply. The short - term speculative demand has been released, but the actual rigid demand is still weak. The supply is expected to continue to decline, and the market will fluctuate between weak demand and low supply. The real improvement in the supply - demand situation may come after the real - estate market recovers in the second quarter [15][17]. 3.4.3 Caustic Soda - Logic: High - level fluctuations intensify. - Fundamentals: The shortage of ethylene affects foreign production capacity. Although the domestic caustic soda market has a contradiction between high production and high inventory, the expected improvement in exports supports the price increase. The key to the price increase lies in the navigation time of the Strait of Hormuz. If the export demand, new alumina production demand, and spring inspection demand of caustic soda factories resonate, the price may rise further [18]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - Logic: The conflict may end, and copper prices are oscillating strongly. - Fundamentals: Inventories in Shanghai and London have increased, and the short - term macro - risk aversion has declined, with the US dollar falling, supporting copper prices. Although downstream demand has improved, it is suppressed by the strong US dollar. After the Lantern Festival, the resumption of work has accelerated, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. Trump's hint that the war is about to end has led to an increase in copper prices [19]. 3.5.2 Gold - Logic: The employment market has declined, and gold prices are oscillating strongly. - Fundamentals: The Middle - East situation may lead to long - term inflation through the energy channel, which may cause central banks to tighten monetary policies, reducing the anti - inflation appeal of gold. Trump's statement that the war is about to end has led to a weakening of the US dollar, supporting the rise of gold prices [20][21]. 3.5.3 Silver - Logic: The price has broken through the resistance and risen. - Fundamentals: The US non - farm unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%, and the weak data has made the market expect the Fed to accelerate interest rate cuts. However, the strong US dollar and the escalation of the Middle - East conflict have suppressed silver prices. Trump's statement that the war may end soon has led to a decline in the US dollar's safe - haven function, and silver prices have broken through [22].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View In August, the import and export data of the polyester chain showed differentiation. PX imports continued to grow, and ethylene glycol imports remained stable. PTA exports declined, while polyester exports continued to rise year - on - year. Textile and clothing exports also showed different trends, with textile exports rebounding and clothing exports decreasing. The short - term impact of tariffs on clothing and textile exports has decreased, but the tariff negotiation dynamics need continuous attention [2]. 3. Summary by Content PX Import - In August, PX imports reached 87.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12% and a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. From January to August, the cumulative import was 615.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate continued to expand. The top three import sources were South Korea, Japan, and Brunei [6][8]. PTA Export - In August, PTA exports were 29.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.8%. From January to August, the cumulative export was 253 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9%. The top five export destinations from January to August were Vietnam, Egypt, Oman, Turkey, and Pakistan. In August, exports to Turkey and India decreased significantly [3]. Ethylene Glycol Import - In August, ethylene glycol imports were 59.2 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The import volume from Saudi Arabia decreased, but the increase from Kuwait, Oman, and the United States offset the reduction. From January to August, the cumulative import was 502.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16%, and the year - on - year growth rate narrowed. Saudi Arabia is the main source of ethylene glycol imports, and future imports are expected to increase [6]. Polyester Export - From January to August, the cumulative polyester export was 962 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.8%. In August, the export was 122.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.8% and a year - on - year increase of 9.1%. Short - fiber and filament exports performed well, while bottle - chip and film exports decreased month - on - month. The top five export destinations from January to August were Vietnam, Indonesia, South Korea, Pakistan, and India [4][5]. Textile and Clothing Export - From January to August, the cumulative textile and clothing export was $197.3 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. Among them, textile exports were $94.53 billion, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%, and clothing exports were $102.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. In August, textile exports increased both year - on - year and month - on - month, while clothing exports decreased [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Crude Oil - The macro - economic data in Europe and the US are positive, and tariff negotiations have made progress, boosting market sentiment. However, high - interest - rate pressure persists, and there are differences in expectations for a September rate cut. Attention should be paid to actions related to tariffs next week [9]. - OPEC supply is generally stable. The EU's sanctions on Russian refined oil will affect India and Turkey's purchase of Russian oil and intensify competition for Middle - Eastern oil. The US may relax sanctions on Venezuela due to heavy - oil shortages [9]. - Global refinery maintenance will decrease by 640,000 barrels per day next week, and the current peak - season demand supports oil prices. But the room for further increase is limited [9]. - US and ARA crude inventories are decreasing, and US refinery operations are at a high level. Gasoline and diesel inventories are at relatively low levels, and the demand for crude oil processing is expected to be strong [9]. - Brent and WTI spreads are falling, and Dubai spreads are slightly rebounding. Overall, the spreads' support for oil prices is weakening [9][16]. - Diesel cracking remains high, but there are signs of weakening in both gasoline and diesel cracking, and the support for oil prices will weaken in the future [9][18]. - In the short term, although macro - sentiment is positive, supply concerns and limited demand growth space put pressure on oil prices. In the long term, OPEC's potential production increase and insufficient demand growth will lead to a downward trend in oil prices [9]. Gasoline and Diesel - Diesel cracking has rebounded, but the upside space is limited in the off - season. The retail price adjustment of gasoline has led to a decrease in the wholesale - retail price difference [140][141]. - The operating rate of major refineries is expected to continue to rise in August, while the operating rate of independent refineries in the East China region has declined, and the operating rate of Shandong refineries has increased [140]. - The export quota of refined oil has increased by 900,000 tons, and the export expectation still has room to rise [140]. - Typhoons have led to a short - term decline in gasoline demand, but the summer season still provides support. Diesel demand in East China has improved [140]. - Gasoline inventories are increasing, and diesel inventories of major refineries are also rising. The supply pressure of diesel will be the main factor affecting future trading [140]. Fuel Oil - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the near - term supply pressure remains, and the spreads continue to decline. Although demand has improved, supply is still abundant. The cracking spreads have rebounded, but the rebound in Singapore is relatively small [201]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the near - term supply is sufficient, and the spreads are also falling. However, the Danagote plant upgrade may lead to a supply shortage in the medium term, and the low - sulfur cracking spreads may rebound [201]. - The demand for marine fuel is expected to continue to improve, and the demand for power generation has different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil. The feedstock demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in the US and China has increased [201]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil Macro - European and US economic data are good, and tariff negotiations have advanced, reducing risk - aversion sentiment. Market expectations for the Fed to keep rates unchanged next week are high, but there are differences in expectations for a September rate cut [9][10][15]. Supply - OPEC supply is stable, and Russia's production increase may be slow. The US may relax sanctions on Venezuela. Non - OPEC supply shows different trends, with Mexico's exports decreasing and Brazil and Guyana's exports increasing [9][44]. - The EU's sanctions on Russian refined oil will affect the purchase of Russian oil by India and Turkey [50]. Demand - Global refinery maintenance will decrease next week, and the peak - season demand supports oil prices. The demand for light, medium, and heavy crude oil is increasing, and the demand for medium - quality oil has increased significantly [67][70]. - The improvement in international and domestic aviation coal demand is positive for oil demand [79][82]. Inventory - US refinery operations are at a high level, and gasoline and diesel inventories are at relatively low levels. ARA, Middle - East, Singapore, and Japanese inventories show different trends [9][108][114]. Freight - Crude - oil tanker freight rates are generally falling, while refined - oil tanker freight rates are slightly rising [117][120]. Position - The net long positions of Brent and WTI managed funds have significantly decreased, indicating a pessimistic market sentiment [123]. Gasoline and Diesel Price Structure - Diesel cracking has rebounded, but the upside is limited. The wholesale - retail price difference of gasoline and diesel has decreased [140][141]. Supply - The operating rate of major refineries is expected to rise in August, while the operating rate of independent refineries in East China has declined and that in Shandong has increased. The export quota of refined oil has increased [140]. Demand - Typhoons have affected short - term gasoline demand, but the summer season provides support. Diesel demand in East China has improved [140]. Inventory - Gasoline inventories are increasing, and diesel inventories of major refineries are rising [140]. Transaction - The crackdown on illegal diesel sales has improved the production - sales situation of independent refineries' truck - loaded diesel [194]. Fuel Oil Price Structure - High - sulfur spreads are falling, and cracking spreads have rebounded. Low - sulfur spreads are also falling, and there is a potential for a rebound in cracking spreads due to the Danagote plant upgrade [201]. Supply - High - sulfur supply is abundant in the near term, with high Russian and Iranian exports expected. Low - sulfur supply may be tight in the medium term due to the Danagote plant upgrade [201]. Demand - Marine - fuel demand is improving, and the demand for power generation and feedstock shows different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil [201]. Inventory - Inventories in Singapore, Fujeirah, and the US are increasing, while those in ARA and Japan are slightly decreasing [201].

Group 1: Overall Situation - In May, the import and export data of the polyester chain showed differentiation. PX imports were relatively stable, while ethylene glycol imports were expected to decrease in the next two months. PTA exports declined significantly, but polyester exports continued to be booming. Textile and clothing exports also showed differentiation [2]. Group 2: PTA Exports - In May, PTA exports were 26.5 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39% and a month - on - month decrease of 32.3%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative exports were 160.2 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.5%. Exports to Turkey decreased by 12 tons in a single month [3]. - From January to May, the top five export destinations were Vietnam, Oman, Turkey, Egypt, and Russia. In May, exports to Turkey and Egypt decreased, while exports to Southeast Asia increased [3]. - From January to May, the top five PTA export provinces were Jiangsu, Fujian, Shandong, Liaoning, and Guangdong, accounting for 94.5% [3]. Group 3: Polyester Exports - From January to May, polyester cumulative exports were 594.3 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.3%. In May, exports were 136.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.6% and a year - on - year increase of 24.4% [4]. - In May, the export scale of each polyester product increased. Bottle chips, staple fibers, filaments, polyester films, and slices all had year - on - year growth [4]. - From January to May, the top five export destinations were Vietnam, Indonesia, South Korea, Pakistan, and Turkey. The exports were concentrated in Zhejiang and Jiangsu, accounting for 57.5% [4][5]. Group 4: Imports - In May, PX imports were 77.3 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.1%. From January to May, the cumulative imports were 373.5 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%, but the decline in cumulative year - on - year growth rate narrowed [6][8]. - In May, EG imports were 60.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.7% but a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. From January to May, the cumulative imports were 322.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.1%. There were expectations of import reduction in the next two months [6][10]. Group 5: Textile and Clothing Exports - From January to May, textile and clothing cumulative exports were $1166.8 billion, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. Textile exports increased by 2.3% year - on - year, while clothing exports decreased by 1% year - on - year [7]. - In May, textile exports were $16.3 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 2% and a month - on - month increase of 0.4%. Clothing exports were $135.8 billion, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% and a month - on - month increase of 17% [7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **LPG**: The supply from the US is expected to decrease in mid - late May as the tariff grace period for "in - transit goods" ends, while the Middle East will maintain high output. China's demand may decline due to high tariffs, and India's demand is expected to increase. The EIA inventory has risen, and the price shows a pattern of FEI with butane stronger than propane and May CP with propane stronger than butane. After May 13th, the US exports to China may significantly decrease, and the future situation in Japan and India needs further attention [10]. - **Methanol**: The supply, including domestic production, imports, and traditional downstream, is under pressure. The demand from downstream and olefins is weakening. The inventory situation shows that the support of low inventory for the basis is weakening. The price structure is weak, and the overall pattern of methanol is bearish. It is recommended to short on rebounds, and the price above 2300 points in the long - term is under pressure [56]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply of PP and PE has support from coal - chemical summer maintenance, but the demand is weakening as it enters the off - season. The inventory, cost, and price structure show certain characteristics. Affected by oil prices and tariff policies, the market sentiment is poor, and the polyolefin market is expected to run weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [124]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LPG - **Supply** - **US**: The "in - transit goods" tariff exemption is about to end, and the output will gradually decrease in mid - late May, with the export focus shifting to other regions [10][14]. - **Middle East**: It is expected to maintain a strong output pattern to China and India in May [10][22]. - **Demand** - **Asia**: South Korea's demand is poor, and Japan will receive a large amount of US LPG in May [29]. - **China and India**: The arrival volume of US LPG will decrease in mid - late May, and India is turning to the US to purchase cheaper propane [35]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of May 2, the US propane and propylene inventory level has risen for the third consecutive week, and the production has slightly decreased but is still higher than the same period in previous years [10]. - **Price and Structure** - **Price**: As of May 8, FEI propane prices were stable, and butane prices were relatively strong. The May CP price of propane decreased by 5 dollars/ton, and butane decreased by 15 dollars/ton [10]. - **Structure**: The FEI - MOPJ spread widened, and the CP propylene - butane spread widened, reflecting China's attempt to find alternative supplies [10]. Methanol - **Supply** - **Domestic**: Short - term maintenance is rare, and the high - level supply pressure will be maintained. The weekly average output in late May is expected to slightly decrease to the range of 95 - 100 tons [56]. - **Import**: The arrival is increasing, and the pressure of import recovery will gradually appear in May. The overseas overall start - up has slightly declined [56]. - **Traditional**: The start - up of formaldehyde and acetic acid is at a high level, but the start - up of MTBE continues to decline [56]. - **Demand** - **Downstream**: The olefin load has decreased due to coal - chemical maintenance. As of May 8, the MTO start - up rate was 75.99% (- 2.08%) [56]. - **Inland**: The inland market has entered the off - season with low inventory [56]. - **Inventory** - **Inland**: As of May 7, the sample inventory of inland production enterprises was 30.39 tons (+ 2.06), and the pending orders were 23.78 tons (- 1.19) [56]. - **Port**: As of May 9, the total inventory was 61.9 tons (+ 0.1), and the negotiable inventory was 21.2 tons (- 1.2). The support of low inventory for the basis is weakening [56]. - **Price and Structure** - **Basis and Spread**: The near - end basis in East China is around 09 + 150/160, and the spread MA9 - 1 = - 63 ( + 2 compared with before the holiday) [56]. - **PP - 3MA**: As of May 9, 09MTO = 286 ( + 6 compared with before the holiday), and the spread trend is difficult to predict [56]. Polyolefins - **Supply**: The start - up rates of PP and PE are 80.2% (+ 3.9%) and 79.2% (- 1.95%) respectively as of May 8. There is support from coal - chemical summer maintenance, and attention should be paid to the PDH start - up and the impact of tariff policies on PE imports from the US [124]. - **Demand**: The start - up of PP downstream industries has seasonally declined, and the start - up of PE downstream industries has also weakened, with the industry entering the off - season [124]. - **Inventory**: As of May 9, the inventory of the two major oil companies was 79 tons (- 1.5), and attention should be paid to the inventory depletion speed after the holiday [124]. - **Cost**: The oil price performance is poor, and the support for polyolefin valuation is limited [124]. - **Price and Structure** - **Basis and Spread**: The PP9 - 1 = 81 yuan/ton ( + 23 compared with before the holiday), and L9 - 1 = 65 yuan/ton ( + 4 compared with before the holiday) [124]. - **PP - L**: As of May 9, 09PP - L = - 9 yuan/ton ( + 33 compared with before the holiday), and the spread is dominated by the difference in the fluctuation range of the two varieties [124].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The global logistics of pure benzene is experiencing significant changes, with an increasing proportion of US dollar-denominated pure benzene supplies entering factories and warehouses [1] - After the return of maintenance of styrene plants in China from December 2024 to January 2025, China has once again become a net exporter of styrene, and this trend is expected to continue [29] Summary by Directory Japan's Pure Benzene and Styrene Import and Export Data from January to February 2025 - Japan's pure benzene exports exceeded 30,000 tons for two consecutive months in January and February 2025, with 74,400 tons in January (a record high) and 59,000 tons in February. The increase was due to the maintenance of multiple styrene plants in Japan, leading to a decline in pure benzene demand. Asian supplies, including those from Japan and South Korea, are expected to have a strong bearish impact on the US market in March [1] - Japan's styrene exports were at a five-year low in the same period due to numerous plant maintenance. In January, 31,300 tons were exported, and in February, 14,700 tons were exported. 65% of Japan's styrene exports from January to February went to South Korea. Japan's first export of styrene to Mexico reflects the current situation where the US has no trouble exporting styrene after a large number of European styrene plants shut down [3] South Korea's Pure Benzene and Styrene Import and Export Data from February to March 2025 - In March 2025, South Korea exported 299,777 tons of pure benzene, with 287,975 tons to China, 11,802 tons to Taiwan, 6,000 tons to Singapore, and 500 tons to Japan. South Korea's exports to the US and Taiwan were at historical lows in the same period. The significant reduction in South Korea's pure benzene trade volume to Taiwan was due to low downstream demand and a shift in procurement to Indian pure benzene [5] - In February 2025, South Korea exported 18,200 tons of styrene (a month-on-month decrease of 11,900 tons) and imported 61,600 tons (a month-on-month increase of 21,000 tons), resulting in a net import of 43,400 tons. South Korea exported 14,400 tons of styrene to Turkey due to the maintenance of Middle Eastern plants and imported 10,000 tons of US styrene that was shipped at the end of December [8] - South Korea's pure benzene production decreased from 560,000 tons in January to 480,000 tons in February. With low production and high exports in February, South Korea's pure benzene inventory decreased by about 30,000 tons. Some refinery reforming units in South Korea are planned to reduce production or undergo maintenance from April to May, and production is expected to decline. However, the current expectations of production reduction and maintenance from April to May have basically been reflected in the Alpha price in May (rising from $18 to $22) [12] - South Korea's styrene production decreased from 150,000 tons in January to 140,000 tons in February. The inventory from January to February was at a historical low in the same period [14] China's Pure Benzene and Styrene Import and Export Data from January to February 2025 - China's pure benzene imports remained at a high level from January to February 2025, with 470,000 tons imported in January and 518,000 tons in February. China's pure benzene imports have entered the "500,000-ton era." The rumored 50,000 tons of Saudi pure benzene shipment to China in late January was disproven by customs data (only 10,000 tons of Omani pure benzene were imported in February). The shutdown of Saudi styrene plants did not lead to a large-scale pure benzene logistics flow from the Middle East to China but instead redirected the logistics to India. In the import structure from January to February, the import volume of Indian supplies increased significantly, reaching a record high, with 38,600 tons imported in January and 24,000 tons in February. The pure benzene trade volume from Southeast Asia also increased significantly, mainly due to the shutdown and maintenance of styrene plants in Singapore and phenol plants in Thailand, as well as fewer pure benzene maintenance activities in Southeast Asia from January to February. Only Indonesia's exports of pure benzene to China decreased due to the shutdown of the aromatics complex of TPPI and Pertamina [19] - China's estimated pure benzene imports in March 2025 are around 530,000 tons. The proportion of US dollar-denominated pure benzene supplies to trade warehouses decreased significantly in the first quarter of 2025. From January to March 2025, the proportion of US dollar-denominated pure benzene supplies in total imports is expected to be less than 25%. This reflects two issues: ① Traders with downstream pure benzene factory resources prefer to directly send goods to factories. Especially for pure benzene traders with long-term contracts, they are bound to incur losses this year, and storing goods in traders' warehouses will further magnify the losses. Therefore, actively matching downstream factories is a good way to reduce losses. ② The pure benzene directly arriving at Lianyungang Ruiheng and Satellite may be the marginal volume contributing to the decrease in the proportion of US dollar-denominated BZ arriving at the main ports in East China [27] - In January 2025, China imported 51,500 tons of styrene and exported 3,400 tons. In February, the import volume was 17,100 tons, and the export volume was 48,800 tons. After the 140,000-ton/year styrene plant of Hong Kong Petrochemical (now acquired by Guoen) restarted at the beginning of January after a long-term shutdown, China's South China region began to export styrene to Hong Kong in February. Due to the planned maintenance of many styrene plants in Japan in the first quarter, 3,000 tons of styrene were exported to Japan in January. Overall, after the return of maintenance of styrene plants in China from December 2024 to January 2025, China has once again become a net exporter of styrene, and this trend is expected to continue. It is estimated that China's styrene exports will further increase in March, with about 30,000 tons to South Korea and 20,000 - 30,000 tons to other countries (Taiwan, India) [29] India's Pure Benzene and Styrene Import and Export Data in 2024 - In 2024, India exported a total of 1.27 million tons of pure benzene, an increase of 140,000 tons compared to 2023. In terms of flow direction, the volume to the Middle East decreased significantly (-154,100 tons), while the volume to Northeast Asia increased significantly (+273,500 tons). Among them, 143,000 tons were exported to China (+82,000 tons) and 227,000 tons to Taiwan (+191,000 tons) [32] - In 2024, India imported a total of 1.12 million tons of styrene, an increase of 50,000 tons compared to 2023. Specifically, the styrene exports from Northeast Asia to India increased by 95,500 tons, and those from the Middle East to India increased by 76,100 tons. The styrene exports from Southeast Asia to India decreased by 110,000 tons [40]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In January and February 2025, the import and export data of the polyester chain showed differentiation. PTA and polyester exports had a good start, with cumulative exports increasing by 14.9% and 16.9% year - on - year respectively. On the import side, PX imports shrank, with a 16.4% year - on - year decline in cumulative imports from January to February, while ethylene glycol imports exceeded expectations, with a 37.5% increase in cumulative imports. After the "rush to export" in the textile and clothing market ended, the export scale contracted [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX Import - PX imports contracted, with cumulative imports from January to February down 16.4% year - on - year. In January, China imported 70.9 tons of PX, a single - month year - on - year decrease of 18.3%, and in February, it imported 68.6 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.4%. From the perspective of import sources, Brunei surpassed Taiwan, China to become one of the top three import sources [6][9]. PTA Export - PTA exports in February increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year, and cumulative exports in the first two months grew steadily. In January and February, PTA exports were 27.2 and 38.3 tons respectively, with a year - on - year decrease of 22.3% in January and an increase of 74% in February. Cumulative exports from January to February 2025 were 65.5 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.9%. The top five export destinations from January to February were Oman, Vietnam, Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey. The top five export provinces were Jiangsu, Fujian, Shandong, Liaoning, and Guangdong [3]. EG Import - EG imports exceeded expectations and increased significantly, with cumulative imports from January to February up 37.5% year - on - year. In January and February, EG imports were 67.7 and 59.4 tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 33.4% and 42.4%. Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Canada were still the main import sources [6][15]. Polyester Export - Polyester exports continued to perform excellently, with all categories maintaining rapid growth. Cumulative polyester exports from January to February were 210.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.9%. Among them, bottle chips, filaments, staple fibers, polyester films, and slices all had varying degrees of year - on - year growth. The top five export destinations were Vietnam, Indonesia, Pakistan, South Korea, and India. Exports were concentrated in Zhejiang and Jiangsu [4][5]. Textile and Clothing Export - After the "rush to export" ended, textile and clothing exports contracted. Cumulative textile and clothing exports from January to February were $42.88 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. In February, textile and clothing exports were poor, dragging down the cumulative export growth rate from January to February [3][36].