Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - PTA market is expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations in the short term, with supply reduction and potential restarts of previously - shut - down capacity, and downstream polyester开工 to seasonally weaken [3] - The ethylene glycol market is expected to oscillate at low levels under the expectation of reduced supply and demand, with continuous inventory accumulation in recent weeks [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Market Performance**: On December 03, the PTA main futures contract TA2601 dropped 0.46%, and the basis strengthened to - 29 yuan/ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: The market price in East China was 4705 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The crude oil price in the cost side dropped, and the OPEC+ meeting maintained the decision to suspend production increase in Q1 2026. The PTA capacity utilization rate was 73.81%, and the weekly PTA factory inventory days were 3.78 days, a decrease of 0.03 days from the previous week [3] - **Main Force Movements**: The long - position main force reduced positions [3] - **Expectations**: There has been significant reduction in PTA supply recently, with previously - shut - down capacity gradually restarting. There is a phased de - stocking. The cancellation of export restrictions by India's BIS boosts exports. The downstream polyester开工 is expected to seasonally decline. Attention should be paid to plant restarts under the repair of processing fees [3] MEG (Ethylene Glycol) - **Market Performance**: On December 03, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2601 dropped 1.55%, and the basis strengthened to 1 yuan/ton [4] - **Fundamentals**: The market price in East China was 3829 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan/ton from the previous day. The crude oil price in the cost side dropped, and the production profit of coal - based ethylene glycol remained in the red. The weekly inventory at East China's MEG ports totaled 70.8 tons, an increase of 7.5 tons from the previous week [4] - **Main Force Movements**: The short - position main force increased positions [4] - **Expectations**: Ethylene glycol has been continuously accumulating inventory in recent weeks, and the expectation has not changed. Some domestic plants plan to reduce production or conduct maintenance, alleviating the supply - side pressure. A 3.3 - million - ton Iranian plant has recently shut down, with an undetermined restart time. The downstream polyester开工 remains stable but has entered the off - season [4]

本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/12/03 金信期货日刊 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 纸浆主力合约日内涨超3%，后市怎么看？ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 12月2日纸浆主力合约涨2.62%至5272元/吨，最高涨幅超过3% ，但后市大概率维持震荡格局，中长期则 有中枢上移潜力。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 短期来看，上涨主要源于交割品不足引发的盘面资金博弈，而非基本面实质改善 。 当前国内港口库存仍达217.2万吨，针叶浆库存高位且需求疲软，下游纸厂对高价原料采购谨慎，仅刚需采 浆，询盘积极性未明显提升。 虽阔叶浆货源偏紧、外盘成本支撑其价格抗跌，但整体供需改善有限，浆价难持续单边上涨。 中长期而言，2026年海外纸浆新增产能少且有减产转产计划，欧洲需求回暖或减少国内进口量 。 同时国内成品纸产能扩张将带来浆料边际需求增量，当前浆价估值偏低，价格中枢有望上移。 后续需重点关注港口去库进度及下游成品纸涨价落地效果，这两大因素将主导浆 ...

1. Reported Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the market is expected to follow the cost - end fluctuations in the short term, with supply reduction and potential restarts of previously shut - down capacities, and downstream polyester开工 to seasonally weaken. For MEG, it may oscillate at a low level under the expectation of both supply and demand reduction [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **主力合约**: On December 2nd, the PTA main futures contract TA2601 rose 0.34%, and the basis weakened to - 32 yuan/ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: The market price of PTA in East China today was 4720 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cost - end crude oil price rose, OPEC + maintained the resolution to suspend production increase in Q1, 2026. The PTA capacity utilization rate was 73.81%, and the weekly PTA factory inventory days were 3.78 days, a decrease of 0.03 days compared to the previous week [3] - **主力动向**: Long - position main players reduced their positions [3] - **预期**: Recently, PTA supply has decreased significantly. Previously shut - down capacities will gradually restart, leading to a phased de - stocking of PTA. India's BIS cancellation is a boost to exports. The downstream polyester开工 is expected to seasonally weaken. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production by plants under the repair of processing fees [3] MEG - **主力合约**: On December 2nd, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2601 fell 0.41%, and the basis weakened by - 6 yuan/ton [4] - **Fundamentals**: The market price of ethylene glycol in East China today was 3876 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cost - end crude oil price increased, and the production profit of coal - based ethylene glycol remained in the red. The weekly inventory of MEG ports in East China totaled 70.8 tons, an increase of 7.5 tons compared to the previous week [4] - **主力动向**: There was a divergence among long and short main players [4] - **预期**: Ethylene glycol has been accumulating inventory in recent weeks, and the expectation has not changed. Some domestic plants plan to reduce production and conduct maintenance, alleviating the supply - side pressure of ethylene glycol. A 3.3 - million - ton plant in Iran has recently shut down, and the restart time is undetermined. The downstream polyester开工 remains stable but has entered the consumption off - season [4]

Report Overview - The report is a daily publication from GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD, dated December 2, 2025, covering various futures markets including coking coal, stock index, gold, iron ore, glass, methanol, and pulp [1][2] Coking Coal Futures - **Investment Rating**: Bullish - **Core View**: The core logic for going long on coking coal futures revolves around supply - demand tight balance, policy support, and industrial chain linkage [3] - **Key Points** - **Supply - side Contraction**: At the end of the year, coal mines are affected by safety production assessment inspections and are close to their annual production targets, leading to active production cuts. Although Mongolian coal has high short - term customs clearance volume, its inventory is low, and winter low temperatures will drag down the clearance volume. With the normalization of environmental protection inspections, supply increment is limited, and the whole - chain inventory continues to decline, supporting price increases [3] - **Robust Demand**: Coking coal is the core raw material for coking. After the price increase of coke is implemented, coke enterprises are operating at a high level, and steel mills' pig iron production has increased year - on - year, resulting in strong rigid demand for coking coal. The winter stockpiling and replenishment of steel mills will start, and the procurement demand will be released intensively, further pushing up the price [3] - **Policy and Industrial Chain Linkage**: Under the "anti - involution" policy in the second half of the year, the industry self - regulates production, and the energy bureau checks over - production, leading to the fermentation of supply contraction expectations. Coking coal has a high correlation with futures such as rebar, and the recovery of steel prices drives the linked rise of coking coal futures. Traders have a strong willingness to hold prices under low inventory, which also helps the futures market to follow the rise [4] Stock Index Futures - **Core View**: On December 1st (Monday), the Shanghai Composite Index had a good start, and the trading volume, which had been shrinking, increased significantly. Technically, the current upward cycle is not over, and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to fill the previous gap. It is recommended to buy on dips [7] Gold Futures - **Core View**: Gold is currently in a complex oscillation process, which is expected to continue for some time. It is not advisable to chase the rise or kill the fall [9] Iron Ore Futures - **Core View**: The market is looking for a bottom, and domestic demand support is weak. Technically, it should be regarded as a wide - range oscillation, with high - selling and low - buying strategies [11] Glass Futures - **Core View**: The daily melting volume has declined, and inventory reduction started this week, mainly driven by policy - side stimulus policies and the "anti - involution" policy for supply - side clearance. Technically, the market has fallen today and should be regarded as a short - term oscillation [15][16] Methanol Futures - **Core View**: The price has risen by more than 5% this week. Multiple factors support the market, including a sharp decline in coastal sample port inventories, supply disruptions caused by the centralized gas - limited shutdown of Iranian plants (a major international exporter), and the linkage effect formed by active port trading sentiment. Opportunities for long positions should be grasped [18] Pulp Futures - **Core View**: As of November 27, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.172 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 0.05%. The inventory has changed little in this cycle, showing a trend of slight inventory reduction. Changshu Port has seen inventory accumulation. The futures market has shown an oscillatory trend recently [22]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core View - PTA market is expected to follow the cost - end to fluctuate in the short term, with supply reduction and inventory drawdown, and downstream polyester开工 to decline seasonally [3]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to oscillate at a low level under the expectation of supply - demand reduction, with continuous inventory accumulation and unresolved negative expectations [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Market Performance**: On December 1st, the PTA main futures contract TA2601 rose 1.93%, and the basis weakened to - 31 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The market price in East China was 4705 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cost - end crude oil price increased, OPEC+ maintained the decision to suspend production increase in Q1 2026. The production capacity utilization rate was 73.81%, and the weekly inventory days of PTA factories were 3.78 days, a decrease of 0.03 days compared to the previous week [3]. - **Main Force Trends**: Long - position main forces increased their positions [3]. - **Expectations**: Supply reduction is significant recently, previously shut - down capacities will gradually restart, and there will be a phased inventory drawdown. The cancellation of India's BIS will boost exports. The downstream polyester开工 is expected to decline seasonally. Pay attention to the resumption of production of plants under processing fees, and the PTA market is expected to follow the cost - end to fluctuate in the short term [3]. MEG - **Market Performance**: On December 1st, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2601 rose 0.28%, and the basis weakened by 4 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The market price in East China was 3897 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cost - end crude oil price increased, the production profit of coal - based ethylene glycol remained in the red, and the weekly inventory in East China ports totaled 70.8 tons, an increase of 7.5 tons compared to the previous week [4]. - **Main Force Trends**: Short - position main forces reduced their positions [4]. - **Expectations**: Inventory has been accumulating in recent weeks, and the negative expectation has not been reversed. Some domestic plants plan to reduce production or shut down for maintenance to relieve supply - side pressure. A 3.3 - million - ton plant in Iran has shut down recently with an undetermined restart time. The downstream polyester开工 remains stable but has entered the off - season. It is expected to oscillate at a low level under the expectation of supply - demand reduction [4].

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report is bullish on the PVC second - main contract, and there are four reasons for this view: valuation and cost support, export demand increment, policy and supply - demand marginal improvement, and sentiment and funds drive [2][3]. - For stock index futures, the current rebound is expected to continue, and it is recommended to buy on dips [7]. - Gold is in a complex oscillation process, and it is not advisable to chase rising or sell on dips [12]. - Iron ore is in a wide - range oscillation, and a high - selling and low - buying strategy is recommended [14]. - Glass can be viewed with a slightly bullish oscillatory mindset due to policy - driven supply - side adjustment [19]. - Methanol prices have risen by over 5% this week, and there are multiple factors supporting the market, so it is advisable to grasp long opportunities [21]. - Pulp futures are in a slightly bearish oscillatory trend, with inventory showing a slight decline [25]. Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Second - Main Contract - Valuation and cost: The current PVC price is at a near - decade low, with the whole industry in loss (700 yuan/ton loss for the calcium carbide method and 560 yuan/ton for the ethylene method). Coal prices are firm, and the decline in caustic soda prices weakens the "subsidizing chlorine with alkali" support, leading to a supply contraction expectation [3]. - Export demand: India has a demand gap of 3 million tons/year, and China's exports to India account for over 40%. From January to September 2025, exports increased by 47.78% year - on - year. After India cancelled the BIS certification, an additional 200,000 - 300,000 tons of exports are expected in the fourth quarter [3]. - Policy and supply - demand: The implementation of "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" and urban village renovation policies will boost the demand for downstream pipes and profiles in the real estate industry. The new production capacity has been put into operation, and some enterprises have reduced their loads, alleviating supply pressure [3]. - Sentiment and funds: Macroeconomic policies have released positive signals, increasing market risk appetite and driving up futures prices [3]. Stock Index Futures - The index opened lower in the morning on the last day of November, then rose and closed at the daily high. The current rebound is expected to continue next week, and it is recommended to buy on dips [7][8]. Gold - Gold is in a complex oscillation process, which is expected to last for some time. It is not advisable to chase rising or sell on dips [12]. Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of supply loosening has further fermented. The domestic demand support is weak, and it is recommended to use a high - selling and low - buying strategy in the wide - range oscillation [14][15]. Glass - The daily melting volume has declined, and inventory reduction started this week. The main drivers are policy - driven supply - side adjustment. Technically, it can be viewed with a slightly bullish oscillatory mindset [19]. Methanol - Methanol prices have risen by over 5% this week. Multiple factors support the market, including a sharp decline in coastal port inventories, supply disruptions due to concentrated gas restrictions at Iranian plants, and active port trading sentiment [21]. Pulp - As of November 27, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.172 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous period, a 0.05% month - on - month decline. The inventory trend shows a slight decline, and the futures market is in a slightly bearish oscillatory trend [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, OPEC+ is expected to keep its policy of suspending production increases in the first quarter of 2026. The main trading logic remains unchanged. Short - term price rebound is limited, and the long - term trend is oscillating weakly [3] - For PX & PTA, PX domestic load is high, overseas is low. PTA supply is shrinking, and the price is expected to oscillate with the cost in the short term [3] - For MEG, the domestic load drops slightly, and the price is expected to oscillate widely. High inventory is the core factor suppressing the price [4] - For BZ & EB, pure benzene price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the rebound of styrene price may not be sustainable [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - OPEC+ will hold a new round of meetings this Sunday, and the policy of suspending production increases in Q1 2026 is expected to remain unchanged [3] - The main trading logic remains unchanged. Positive factors are the continuation of US sanctions on oil - producing countries and geopolitical uncertainties, while negative factors are production increase expectations and poor global economy and demand [3] - Geopolitical situation shows a缓和 trend, but instability still exists. Short - term price rebound is limited, and long - term is oscillating weakly [3] PX & PTA PX - Domestic weekly average capacity utilization is 89.74%, up 0.53% from last week; Asian weekly average is 79.4%, down 0.39% from last week [7] - PX - naphtha spread is stable at about $250/ton [7] - India's cancellation of BIS certification is beneficial for exports. With limited maintenance in Q4 and no new domestic capacity in H1 2026, supply - demand is stable, and PXN is supported. Price is expected to oscillate with crude oil [7] PTA - The spot market price is 4,630 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week. The weekly average capacity utilization is 71.92%, down 2.37% from last week [12] - Factory inventory days are 3.78 days, down 0.03 days from last week. PTA processing fee is restored to 208 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton from last week [12] - With supply reduction, strong polyester load and increased export demand, the inventory accumulation expectation is reversed, and there may be a phased inventory reduction [12] MEG - The price hits a new low this year, with a weekly market price of 3,904 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton from last week. The total domestic capacity utilization is 62.67%, down 1.25% from last week [16] - Coal - based MEG capacity utilization is 56.22%, down 1.2% from last week. Production profit is - 1,047 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton from last week [16] - A 1 - million - ton/year MEG plant in East China plans to shut down in early December. Port inventory is rising, with 70.8 tons in East China, up 7.5 tons from last week [16] BZ & EB Pure Benzene - The weekly average capacity utilization is 76.59%, down 0.08% from last week. The port inventory is 16.4 tons, up 1.7 tons from last week [25] - Downstream caprolactam may have collective production cut actions. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [4] Styrene - The weekly average capacity utilization is 67.29%, down 1.66% from last week. The port inventory is 16.42 tons, up 1.59 tons from last week [25] - The downstream 3S inventory pressure is large, and the terminal demand is weak. The price rebound may not be sustainable [4] Polyester and Terminal Weaving - The weekly average capacity utilization of the domestic polyester industry is 87.38%, down 0.21% from last week. Polyester staple fiber and filament have a slight inventory increase [20] - The comprehensive starting rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 66.93%, down 0.76% from the previous period. Terminal weaving order days are 13.04 days, down 0.51 days from last week [20] - Terminal weaving finished product inventory is 23.45 days, up 0.59 days from last week. Domestic cold - proof fabric orders are almost over, and new orders are scarce [20]

Report Information - Report Name: GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD Daily Report - Report Date: November 28, 2025 - Report Author: GOLDTRUST FUTURES Research Institute Group 1: PVC Investment Analysis - Investment Rating: Bullish on PVC second - tier contract - Core View: There are four reasons to be bullish on the PVC second - tier contract - Detailed Points: - Valuation and cost support: Current PVC prices are at a near - decade low, with the entire industry in losses (700 yuan/ton loss for calcium carbide method and 560 yuan/ton for ethylene method). There is a strong demand for valuation repair and limited downside. Rising coal prices lift the cost center, and the falling caustic soda price weakens the "alkali - chlorine compensation" support, leading to an expected supply contraction [3]. - Export demand increment: India has a demand gap of 3 million tons/year, and China's exports to India account for over 40%. From January to September 2025, exports increased by 47.78% year - on - year. After India cancelled the BIS certification, an additional 200,000 - 300,000 tons of exports to India are expected in the fourth quarter, which can digest domestic high inventories [3]. - Policy and supply - demand marginal improvement: The implementation of "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" and urban village renovation policies is accelerating, which will boost the demand for downstream pipes and profiles in the real estate industry. On the supply side, new capacity has been put into production, and some enterprises have reduced their loads due to profit compression, with the operating rate declining month - on - month, thus alleviating supply pressure [3]. - Sentiment and capital drive: Frequent release of positive macro - policies has increased market risk appetite. Capital inflows have promoted the repair of futures prices. Previous negative factors have been fully digested, and the cost - effectiveness of going long is prominent [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis of Various Futures Stock Index Futures - Core View: Technically, from a 5 - minute cycle, it is expected that there will be an upward rush in the early trading session tomorrow. Overall, chasing the rise is not recommended [7]. Gold Futures - Core View: Gold is currently in a complex oscillation process, which is expected to continue for some time. The strategy is not to chase the rise or kill the fall [11]. Iron Ore Futures - Core View: Iron ore is in the process of finding a bottom, with weak domestic demand support. Technically, it should be viewed with a wide - range oscillation idea, and high - selling and low - buying are recommended [13]. Glass Futures - Core View: Technically, there have been many glass factory overhauls recently, and sentiment has improved. It can be viewed with an oscillation - bullish idea [15]. Methanol Futures - Core View: As of November 26, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.3635 million tons, a decrease of 115,800 tons from the previous period. This week, there was a significant destocking of methanol port inventory. Long - term long opportunities should be grasped [18]. Pulp Futures - Core View: As of November 20, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.173 million tons, an increase of 63,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.0%. The inventory has been accumulating for two consecutive weeks. The futures market has recently shown an oscillation - bearish trend [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For PTA, recent supply has decreased significantly, and the cancellation of India's BIS has boosted export demand, leading to a slight reduction in inventory in the short - term. However, downstream polyester production may gradually weaken, and long - term supply remains in excess. The PTA market is expected to fluctuate following the cost side in the short term [3]. - For MEG, inventory has been continuously rising, and although the rate of inventory accumulation has decreased, the expectation has not reversed. Some domestic plants plan to reduce production or undergo maintenance, and an Iranian 330 - million - ton plant has recently shut down. With downstream polyester production stable but entering the off - season, the market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern under the expectation of reduced supply and demand [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Market Situation**: On November 27, the PTA main futures contract TA2601 fell 0.73%, and the basis strengthened to - 29 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The market price in East China was 4615 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cost of crude oil prices stabilized after a decline. The PTA capacity utilization rate was 71.17%. The weekly PTA factory inventory days were 3.81 days, a decrease of 0.16 days from the previous week. The PTA processing fee recovered to over 200 yuan/ton [3]. - **Main Force Movements**: Long - position main forces increased their positions [3]. MEG - **Market Situation**: On November 27, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2601 fell 0.23%, and the basis strengthened to 2 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The market price in East China was 3889 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cost of crude oil prices stabilized after a decline, and the production profit of coal - based ethylene glycol remained in the red. The weekly inventory at East China MEG ports totaled 63.3 tons, an increase of 1.5 tons from the previous week [4]. - **Main Force Movements**: Short - position main forces increased their positions [4].

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/11/27 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 看多玻璃次主力合约的3大可能性分析 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 当前玻璃期货次主力合约处于"弱现实"与"强预期"的博弈中，从成本、供应、库存、政策及盘面资金等维度 看，存在诸多支撑因素，长期具备抄底价值，以下五大理由为看多逻辑提供核心支撑。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 一，成本端形成强力托底，下跌空间受限 行业盈亏平衡点约980 - 1000元/吨，而玻璃次主力合约11月21日报1113元/吨，虽当前部分企业仍能承压，但 价格若进一步下探，将触发更多企业限产停产，成本硬约束下，合约价格下跌空间已十分有限。 二，供应收缩持续加码，供需格局逐步优化 供应端收缩动作不断落地，沙河地区4条燃煤生产线已集中停产冷修，合计日熔量达2650吨，直接带动全国浮法 玻璃日产量环比下降1.33%。此外广东有企业公示平板玻璃生产线产能出让方案，进一步减少市场供应。 三 ...