1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The coking coal market is likely to experience short - term pressure, limited downside and upside potential. The current 2601 contract price is below the mainstream spot warehouse - receipt cost, and there is downstream replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, but the short - term long - short game is intensifying, so bottom - fishing operations should be cautious [3][4] - For the stock index, the Shanghai Composite Index's small - scale adjustment and filling of the gap are conducive to the next day's market, and the current low - buying idea remains unchanged [8] - Gold is in a complex oscillation process and is expected to continue for some time. It is not advisable to chase up or sell short [13] - Iron ore is in a process of finding a bottom with weak domestic demand support. It should be viewed with a wide - range oscillation idea for high - selling and low - buying [15] - Glass has no sign of stabilization and should be viewed with a bearish - oscillation idea [19] - For lithium carbonate, the supply side is steadily releasing, and the demand side is slightly decreasing month - on - month. Opportunities for short positions should be grasped [22] - Pulp has rebounded due to multiple factors, but the fundamental change is not significant. The disk faces great pressure for continuous sharp upward movement, so a wide - range oscillation judgment is maintained for now [24] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus: Coking Coal - On December 9, the price of the coking coal main contract was reported at 1,082.5 yuan/ton, down 2.21% again, and the cumulative decline since November had reached 17% [2] - On the supply side, domestic coal mine production is at a low level in recent years due to over - production checks, but high Mongolian coal customs clearance and concentrated arrival of seaborne coal will continue to suppress prices in December [3] - On the demand side, the current daily hot metal output is 2.32 million tons. More steel mill overhauls in December will further reduce production, and steel mills have sufficient inventory and low procurement willingness [3] Technical Analysis: Stock Index Futures - The overall market on the day was a weak - oscillation market of opening low, rising, surging, and then falling back. After two consecutive days of sharp rises, the Shanghai Composite Index had a small - scale shock adjustment and filled the gap at the end of the day, which is conducive to the next day's market. The current low - buying idea remains unchanged [8][9] Technical Analysis: Gold - Gold is in a complex oscillation process and is expected to continue for some time. It is not advisable to chase up or sell short [13] Technical Analysis: Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of supply relaxation is further fermenting. The terminal demand, except for exports, is still in the process of finding a bottom, and domestic demand support is weak. Technically, it should be viewed with a wide - range oscillation idea for high - selling and low - buying [15][16] Technical Analysis: Glass - Technically, there is no sign of stabilization, and it should be viewed with a bearish - oscillation idea. Daily melting has declined, and inventory has decreased this week, mainly driven by policy - side stimulus policies and anti - involution policies for the clearance of the supply side [19][20] Technical Analysis: Lithium Carbonate - On the supply side, production in December increased by about 3% month - on - month due to the commissioning of new production capacity. On the demand side, although it remained stable overall, it decreased slightly month - on - month. The decline in cell production at a high level weakened short - term upward momentum. Opportunities for short positions should be grasped [22] Technical Analysis: Pulp - Pulp has rebounded due to multiple factors, but the fundamental change is not significant. The 03 and 05 contracts have reached the pressure level of 5,500 - 5,600, but the spot basis has not shown an obvious strengthening trend in recent two days. Although the spot price has followed the rise, the basis has not widened, and the disk faces great pressure for continuous sharp upward movement. A wide - range oscillation judgment is maintained for now [24]

金 信 期 货 P T A 乙 二 醇 日 刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 1 2 / 0 9 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD PTA ibaotu.com 日度市场情况 主力合约：12月09日PTA主力期货合约TA2601今天下跌0.73%，基差走强至-26元/吨。 基本面：今日PTA华东地区市场价4630元/吨，较前一交易日下跌15元/吨。成本端布伦特原油再次跌倒63美元以下，OPEC+会议维持 26年1季度暂停增产决议；供给端PTA产能利用率73.81%；周度PTA工厂库存天数3.92天，环比增加0.14天。 主力动向：多头主力减仓 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 预期：PTA之前检修的产能将逐步开始重启，库存格局逐步转向累库。下游聚酯开工高位小幅下降，预计终端需求将进一步转弱； PTA加工费再次回落至150元附近，短期预计PTA市场依旧跟随成本端震荡运行。 MEG 主力合约：12月09日乙二醇主力期货合约eg2601下跌 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the daily newsletter of GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD, written by the GOLDTRUST FUTURES Research Institute on December 9, 2025 [1] Group 2: Hot News Focus - Coking Coal - On December 8, the price of the main coking coal contract was reported at 1,102.5 yuan per ton, down 7.13% on the day, and the cumulative decline since November has reached 17% [2] - In the future, it will probably show a short - term downward - pressured and volatile trend, with limited downward and upward space. The supply is restricted by domestic coal mine over - production inspections, but high Mongolian coal customs clearance and concentrated arrival of seaborne coal will suppress prices. The demand is weak due to increased steel mill overhauls in December and sufficient steel mill inventories. However, the current contract price is lower than the spot warehouse receipt cost, and pre - Spring Festival restocking demand will support prices [3] - Macroeconomic policy benefits have not yet translated into real demand, short - term bull - bear games have intensified, the main contract has not stabilized, and bottom - fishing operations should be extremely cautious [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - On Monday, the market opened higher and moved higher with weekend benefits, with a slight decline at the end of the session and the Shanghai Composite Index filled the gap. Technically, there were two consecutive positive lines, and the three major indexes formed an upward gap, with a low probability of short - term filling. It is recommended to consider low - buying operations [8] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Gold - Gold is currently in a complex oscillation process, which is expected to continue for some time. It is not advisable to chase rising or killing falling [12] Group 5: Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - Iron ore is in the process of finding a bottom, with weak domestic demand support. Technically, it should be viewed with a wide - range oscillation idea, and high - selling and low - buying operations should be carried out. With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of supply relaxation has further fermented, and terminal demand is weak except for exports [14][15] Group 6: Technical Analysis - Glass - The daily melting volume of glass has declined, and the inventory has decreased again this week, mainly driven by policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for supply - side clearance. Technically, there is no sign of stabilization, and it should be viewed with a downward - biased oscillation idea [18][19] Group 7: Technical Analysis - Fuel Oil - The processing demand of local refineries and the United States has gradually declined, the marine demand has fallen from a high level, the peak power - generation season in the Middle East has ended, the Palestine - Israel conflict has eased, and Egypt's fuel oil procurement demand may be significantly reduced next summer. Opportunities for long positions should be grasped [21] Group 8: Technical Analysis - Pulp - Pulp has rebounded due to multiple factors, but there is little substantial change in the fundamentals. The 03 and 05 contracts have risen to the pressure level of 5,500 - 5,600, but the spot basis has not shown an obvious strengthening trend in recent two days. Although the spot price has followed the rise, the basis has not widened, and there is relatively large pressure for the futures price to continue to rise significantly. It is temporarily judged to be in a wide - range oscillation [23]

Group 1: Report Core Viewpoints - The core logic of short - selling polysilicon futures revolves around supply - demand imbalance, unfulfilled policy expectations, and high inventory pressure [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index, which was sluggish in the morning, rose sharply in the afternoon driven by insurance and brokerage stocks. A small positive line today leaves a question mark on whether the Shanghai Composite Index can fill the upward gap next week. It is recommended to consider low - buying next week [6] - Gold is currently in a complex oscillation process, which is expected to continue for some time. It is not advisable to chase up or sell down [11] - As the Simandou project is put into production, the expectation of loose supply of iron ore further intensifies. The domestic demand support is weak. Technically, it should be viewed with a broad - range oscillation idea, and high - selling and low - buying are recommended [13][14] - The daily melting of glass has declined, and the inventory has decreased again this week. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for the supply - side clearance. Technically, it should be viewed with an oscillating and bearish idea [17][18] - The demand support for polysilicon is even weaker. The production reduction rhythm of wafer enterprises accelerated at the end of November, and the expected production schedule in December dropped sharply. It is recommended to seize short - selling opportunities [21] - Pulp rebounded due to multiple factors, but the fundamental changes are not substantial. The 03 and 05 contracts rose to the pressure level of 5500 - 5600, but the spot basis has not shown an obvious strengthening trend recently. It is temporarily judged to maintain a broad - range oscillation [24] Group 2: Polysilicon Futures Short - Selling Logic Details Supply Aspect - In October, China's polysilicon production reached 137,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.2%. The year - end inventory is likely to exceed 400,000 tons. The new production capacity in the northwest offsets the production reduction in the southwest during the dry season, and the supply - side pressure is difficult to relieve [3] Demand Aspect - The production schedule of downstream wafers in November decreased by 1GW month - on - month. Battery cell enterprises reduced purchases due to inventory accumulation. The photovoltaic terminal over - exploited demand due to the rush to install in the first half of the year, and the component tender volume in the fourth quarter decreased significantly year - on - year, which was transmitted to the polysilicon link [3] Policy Aspect - The promotion of policies such as state reserve and production quota lags behind, and the previous policy expectation premium has been retracted. The market's confidence in policies has weakened, and the positive news has less and less boosting power on the market, which is difficult to support price increases [3] Delivery Aspect - The forced cancellation of warehouse receipts in November will release spot goods. The futures delivery price is higher than the spot price, and long - position holders will suffer losses when taking delivery. Enterprises register warehouse receipts and sell to recover funds, which further intensifies the downward pressure on futures prices [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Different Futures Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index showed a small positive line today, leaving a question about filling the upward gap next week. It is recommended to consider low - buying next week [6] Gold Futures - Gold is in a complex oscillation and is expected to continue. Avoid chasing up or selling down [11] Iron Ore Futures - With the Simandou project's production, supply is expected to be loose. Domestic demand is weak. Adopt a broad - range oscillation strategy with high - selling and low - buying [13][14] Glass Futures - Daily melting declined, and inventory decreased this week due to policies. Technically, it is bearish in oscillation [17][18] Polysilicon Futures - Demand support is weak. Wafer production reduction accelerated in November, and the expected production in December dropped sharply. Seize short - selling opportunities [21] Pulp Futures - Pulp rebounded due to multiple factors, but fundamentals changed little. 03 and 05 contracts reached the pressure level, and the basis did not strengthen. It will maintain a broad - range oscillation [24]

GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD GOLDTRUST FUTURES IFind、Mysteel、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 品种 周度观点 原油 OPEC+决议2026年第一季度保持其暂停增产的政策不变，当下12月每日增加13.7万桶石油供应。目前国际原油市场的主要交易逻辑未发生 变化，利好来自美国对产油国的制裁政策延续和地缘局势的不确定性，而利空则是原油增产预期及全球经济、需求欠佳。地缘局势上不稳定性依 然存在，乌克兰仍在对俄罗斯境内持续袭击，美国或将军事入侵委内瑞拉。预计短期原油价格反弹空间有限，长期仍是维持震荡偏弱格局。 PX&PTA PX国内整体负荷维持高位，海外工厂低负荷运行。印度BIS认证取消对出口格局形成利好，供需格局偏紧，支撑周内PX加工费继续上涨， PXN价格走扩至290美元左右。本周国内PTA开工率提升，虹港250万吨PTA装置重启，中泰120万吨PTA装置提负。前段时间主动"反内卷"的 产能未来将逐步重启、提负。下游聚酯负荷高位持稳，不过终端织造的订单天数和库存水平已显示需求转弱，高开工或不可持续 ...

GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：文华、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 品种 周度观点 需求：需求季节性提振有限，样本屠宰企开工率 34.12%，较上月微降 0.30 个百分点；鲜销率 均值 85.70%，环比下滑 0.75 个百分点，批发市场白条销量难形成有效拉动，终端消费承接力 不足。 供给：全国重点省份养殖企业生猪计划出栏量环比涨 3.20%。年底规模企业冲刺出栏计划，前 期二次育肥猪源集中出栏，全国生猪均重达 123.68kg，大猪供应偏多，整体供应压力较大。 生猪 库存：屠宰企业主动入库积极性低，但猪肉供应偏多导致鲜销困难，部分企业被动入库，冻品 库存呈 "入库量大于出库量" 的增加态势，库存压力抑制企业补库意愿。 利润：养殖端处于微亏状态，在猪价持续承压的情况下，虽然养殖成本有所下降，但利润空间 难以有效修复。当前市场缺乏推动价格强势回升的动力，预计短期养殖利润将继续承压。 结论：供需失衡格局短期难扭转，12 月价格将低位震荡、短暂回弹后承压回落，养殖端微亏持 续，需 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - It is recommended to short Shanghai silver futures due to the fading macro - level benefits, technical callback signals, and potential variables in funds and supply - demand [3][4]. - For stock index futures, it is advisable to treat the market as a high - level oscillation [8]. - For gold, it is in a complex oscillation process, and it is not advisable to chase up or sell down [12]. - For iron ore, it is in the process of bottom - seeking with weak domestic demand support, and a wide - range oscillation strategy of high - selling and low - buying is recommended [14]. - For glass, a bearish oscillation view is taken from a technical perspective [17]. - For coking coal, considering the tight supply and cautious downstream procurement, opportunities for long positions should be grasped [20]. - For pulp, before the end of the domestic Spring Festival peak season, it is advisable to buy on dips [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Silver Futures - Macro - level: The rise of Shanghai silver depends on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. Positive US economic data will cool down the expectation, strengthen the US dollar, and suppress silver prices. The current price has reflected a large amount of the expectation, and price decline may occur after the benefit is realized [3]. - Technical level: After the rise, Shanghai silver is prone to over - buying. Signals such as the KD value turning around above 80, MACD top divergence, price hitting the upper Bollinger Band, large deviation from short - term moving averages, long upper shadows at high levels, and price rising with volume shrinking indicate weak upward momentum, suitable for light - position short - selling trials [3]. - Funds and supply - demand: The sharp rise has led to strong profit - taking demand. A significant decrease in positions during the price rise means capital withdrawal. The high volatility of Shanghai silver is unsustainable, and short - selling volatility can be profitable when it falls. The supply of mined silver may gradually recover, alleviating the supply - demand tension [4]. Stock Index Futures - The market showed an upward trend in the afternoon after morning oscillation today. The Shanghai Composite Index was weak, while the ChiNext and STAR Market indices were strong in the afternoon. Whether the adjustment is over needs further confirmation, and the market should be treated as a high - level oscillation [8][9]. Gold - Gold is in a complex oscillation process, which is expected to continue for some time. It is not advisable to chase up or sell down [12]. Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of supply relaxation has further fermented. On the demand side, except for the remaining strength in exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - seeking with weak domestic demand support. Technically, a wide - range oscillation strategy of high - selling and low - buying is recommended [14][15]. Glass - The daily melting capacity has decreased, and the inventory has decreased again this week. The main driving factors are the supply - side clearance policies. Technically, a bearish oscillation view is taken as the daily line has continuously closed with negative candles [17][18]. Coking Coal - Downstream enterprises' procurement is cautious, with low inventory and mainly for rigid demand. On the supply side, some coal mines have reduced production due to underground problems, and the overall supply remains tight. Opportunities for long positions should be grasped [20]. Pulp - The Lion brand pulp mill in Canada's BC province with an annual output of 380,000 tons will permanently shut down from December, accounting for about 1.5% of the commercial bleached softwood pulp capacity. The Rauma pulp mill of Stora Enso with a capacity of 650,000 tons has a one - month temporary shutdown. Affected by foreign pulp mill production cuts and capital games in deliverable products, the futures price has risen significantly. Before the end of the domestic Spring Festival peak season, it is advisable to buy on dips [23].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA: The PTA market is expected to continue to fluctuate with the cost side in the short - term. Supply reduction is significant recently, but previously shut - down capacities will gradually restart, leading to a shift to inventory accumulation. The cancellation of export restrictions by India boosts exports, while downstream polyester开工 is expected to seasonally weaken [3]. - MEG: Under the expectation of both supply and demand reduction, MEG may oscillate at a low level. It is continuously accumulating inventory, though the accumulation rate has decreased. Some domestic plants plan to reduce production or conduct maintenance, and an Iranian plant has shut down [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Market Performance**: On December 04, the PTA main futures contract TA2601 rose 0.34%, and the basis weakened to - 37 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The market price in East China was 4685 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Brent crude oil fluctuated around $63. OPEC + decided to suspend production increase in Q1 2026. The PTA capacity utilization rate was 73.81%, and the weekly PTA factory inventory days were 3.92 days, a 0.14 - day increase from the previous week [3]. - **Main Force Movements**: Short - side main forces increased their positions [3]. MEG - **Market Performance**: On December 04, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2601 fell 0.41%, and the basis weakened to - 8 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The market price in East China was 3813 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Brent crude oil fluctuated around $63. The production profit of coal - based ethylene glycol remained in the red. The weekly MEG port inventory in East China totaled 71.9 tons, a 1.1 - ton increase from the previous week [4]. - **Main Force Movements**: There was a divergence between long - side and short - side main forces [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On December 3rd, the pulp main contract rose 3.53% to 5,402 yuan/ton, with a maximum increase of over 3%. In the short - term, the rise is due to capital game on the disk caused by insufficient delivery products rather than substantial improvement in fundamentals. In the long - term, the price center is expected to move up. For other commodities, different trends and operation suggestions are given [3][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp - **Short - term**: On December 3rd, the pulp main contract rose 3.53% to 5,402 yuan/ton, with a maximum increase of over 3%. The short - term rise is due to capital game on the disk caused by insufficient delivery products. The current domestic port inventory is 217.2 tons, with high coniferous pulp inventory, weak demand, and downstream paper mills are cautious in purchasing high - priced raw materials. Although the supply of broad - leaf pulp is tight and the price is supported by external costs, the overall supply - demand improvement is limited, and the pulp price is difficult to rise unilaterally continuously [3]. - **Long - term**: In 2026, there will be less new overseas pulp production capacity and there are plans for production cuts and conversions. The recovery of European demand may reduce domestic imports. At the same time, the expansion of domestic finished paper production capacity will bring incremental marginal demand for pulp. Currently, the pulp price is undervalued, and the price center is expected to move up. Attention should be paid to port de - stocking progress and the implementation effect of downstream finished paper price increases [5][6][7]. - **Cultural paper**: There are situations of factory production conversion and load reduction. Due to the large industry production capacity base, the industry supply is abundant. Affected by capital game of delivery products, increase in external quotes, and partial recovery of downstream paper product demand, the disk rebounded significantly yesterday. However, the supply - side pressure persists, the port inventory shows an increasing trend, and the fundamental improvement is not obvious. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term. Attention should be paid to paper mill restocking and macro - impacts [28]. Stock Index Futures The adjustment is mainly for the previous rebound. Whether the adjustment is over needs further confirmation tomorrow. In operation, it is recommended to treat it as a high - level shock [10]. Gold Gold is currently in a complex shock process, which is expected to continue for some time. It is not advisable to chase up or sell down in the strategy [14]. Iron Ore With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of loose supply is further fermented. On the demand side, except for exports still having some momentum, the real estate and infrastructure are still in the process of bottom - seeking, and the domestic demand support is weak. Technically, it should be viewed with a wide - range shock idea, and high - selling and low - buying are recommended [16][17]. Glass Technically, the daily - line level has continuously closed negative, and it should be viewed with a shock - bearish idea. The daily melting has declined, and de - stocking started this week. The main driving forces are the policy - side stimulus policies and the anti - involution policies for the clearance of the supply side [21][22]. Methanol This week, the price has risen by more than 5%. Multiple factors support the market, including a sharp decline in the inventory of coastal sample ports, supply disruptions caused by the centralized gas - limiting shutdown of Iranian plants in major international exporting countries, and the linkage effect formed by active port trading sentiment. Opportunities for long positions should be grasped [24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - PTA market is expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations in the short term, with supply reduction and potential restarts of previously - shut - down capacity, and downstream polyester开工 to seasonally weaken [3] - The ethylene glycol market is expected to oscillate at low levels under the expectation of reduced supply and demand, with continuous inventory accumulation in recent weeks [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Market Performance**: On December 03, the PTA main futures contract TA2601 dropped 0.46%, and the basis strengthened to - 29 yuan/ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: The market price in East China was 4705 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The crude oil price in the cost side dropped, and the OPEC+ meeting maintained the decision to suspend production increase in Q1 2026. The PTA capacity utilization rate was 73.81%, and the weekly PTA factory inventory days were 3.78 days, a decrease of 0.03 days from the previous week [3] - **Main Force Movements**: The long - position main force reduced positions [3] - **Expectations**: There has been significant reduction in PTA supply recently, with previously - shut - down capacity gradually restarting. There is a phased de - stocking. The cancellation of export restrictions by India's BIS boosts exports. The downstream polyester开工 is expected to seasonally decline. Attention should be paid to plant restarts under the repair of processing fees [3] MEG (Ethylene Glycol) - **Market Performance**: On December 03, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2601 dropped 1.55%, and the basis strengthened to 1 yuan/ton [4] - **Fundamentals**: The market price in East China was 3829 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan/ton from the previous day. The crude oil price in the cost side dropped, and the production profit of coal - based ethylene glycol remained in the red. The weekly inventory at East China's MEG ports totaled 70.8 tons, an increase of 7.5 tons from the previous week [4] - **Main Force Movements**: The short - position main force increased positions [4] - **Expectations**: Ethylene glycol has been continuously accumulating inventory in recent weeks, and the expectation has not changed. Some domestic plants plan to reduce production or conduct maintenance, alleviating the supply - side pressure. A 3.3 - million - ton Iranian plant has recently shut down, with an undetermined restart time. The downstream polyester开工 remains stable but has entered the off - season [4]