免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) | 8915 | -50 主力合约持仓量:红枣(日,手) | 124292 | 4529 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:红枣(日,手) | -9865 | -1309 仓单数量:红枣(日,张) | 982 | 99 | | | 有效仓单预报:红枣:小计(日,张) | 1145 | 11 | | | | 现货市场 | 喀什红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) | 6.5 | 0 河北一级 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the domestic market, the cotton picking and delivery in Xinjiang are almost finished, and the ginning mills' lint processing volume is increasing. The national commercial inventory is growing. As of December 12, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 470.23 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 23.73 million tons (a 5.31% increase). On the demand side, the peak - season procurement of downstream textile enterprises has ended, but the orders for medium - and high - count yarns are stable. Most enterprises choose to replenish inventory as needed. With potential long - term benefits, the short - term cotton price may continue to rise [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price was 13,925 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; cotton futures' top 20 net positions were - 148,999 lots, a decrease of 518 lots; the main contract's cotton position was 731,267 lots, an increase of 17,680 lots; the cotton warehouse receipt quantity was 3,482 lots, an increase of 283 lots. - The main contract closing price of cotton yarn was 20,085 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the top 20 net positions of cotton yarn futures were - 838 lots, a decrease of 232 lots; the main contract's cotton yarn position was 22,447 lots, an increase of 359 lots; the cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity was 9 lots, a decrease of 2 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,144 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 12,863 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - scale tariff) was 13,892 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan. - The China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,830 yuan/ton, unchanged; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 21,065 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton combed yarn 32s was 22,237 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,686 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan; the national industrial cotton inventory was 850,000 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton was 90,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 140,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the profit of imported cotton was 1,238 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan; the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.9306 million tons, an increase of 1.9089 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn were 26.12 days, an increase of 1.27 days; the inventory days of grey fabric were 31.97 days, an increase of 0.85 days; the monthly output of cloth was 2.62 billion meters, a decrease of 0.18 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn was 2.001 million tons, a decrease of 0.073 million tons; the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 110,034,804,300 US dollars, a decrease of 14,497,665,700 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 112,584,189,200 US dollars, a decrease of 7,080,970,800 US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options was 2.09%, a decrease of 11.87%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options was 13.96%, an increase of 2.38%; the 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 6.77%, an increase of 0.07%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 7.01%, an increase of 0.05% [2] 3.7 Industry News - The Brazilian Cotton Growers Association (Abrapa) reported that Brazil's cotton planting area in 2026 is estimated to be 2.05 million hectares, 5% lower than in 2025, and the output is estimated to be 2.83 million tons, a 10% year - on - year decrease. - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures closed lower on Tuesday due to weak export sales and expected future supply increases. The ICE March cotton futures contract fell 0.84 cents, or 1.31%, to settle at 63.10 cents per pound [2]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is available in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of沪铜shows a fluctuating trend, with an increase in open interest, a spot discount, and a weaker basis. In the raw material aspect of the fundamentals, the spot processing fee index of copper concentrates remains at a low negative level, and the expectation of tight ore supply will have a long - lasting effect on the copper smelting end, providing cost support. In terms of supply, the price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting, is still relatively good, making up for some profit losses of smelters. Although the operating rate of smelters has rebounded due to the resumption of production after previous maintenance, the increase is only slight due to raw material shortages. In terms of demand, boosted by macro - expectations, the copper price has been strong in the short term, but the high price has suppressed the purchasing sentiment of downstream buyers, who have become more cautious, and social inventories have slightly accumulated. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.26, a month - on - month increase of 0.0111, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the two lines are below the 0 - axis and the red bars are expanding. The report suggests light - position short - term long - buying at low prices, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of沪铜is 92,820 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 900 yuan. The price of LME 3 - month copper is 11,680 dollars/ton, a daily increase of 88 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 70 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 20 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of沪铜is 223,974 lots, a daily increase of 6,600 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of沪铜is - 32,306 lots, a daily increase of 1,775 lots. The LME copper inventory is 166,600 tons, a daily increase of 725 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 89,389 tons, a weekly increase of 484 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 64,400 tons, a daily decrease of 1,000 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 44,877 tons, a daily decrease of 2,856 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 92,145 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 445 yuan. The price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 92,285 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 290 yuan. The CIF (Bill of Lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 48 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 45.5 dollars/ton, a daily increase of 2.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 675 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 455 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 9.52 dollars/ton, a daily decrease of 5.13 dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ores and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, a monthly decrease of 13.56 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 43.08 dollars/thousand tons, a weekly decrease of 0.22 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 82,200 yuan/metal ton, a daily decrease of 460 yuan. The price of copper concentrates in Yunnan is 82,900 yuan/metal ton, a daily decrease of 460 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,400 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 100 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the north is 1,000 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 100 yuan. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 120.4 million tons, a monthly decrease of 6.2 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 427,000 tons, a monthly decrease of 13,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 62,790 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 300 yuan. [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 970 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 76,750 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 350 yuan. The output of copper products is 200.4 million tons, a monthly decrease of 22.8 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure construction is 482.434 billion yuan, a monthly increase of 44.627 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 7859.1 billion yuan, a monthly increase of 502.83 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4.39 million pieces, a monthly increase of 213,000 pieces. [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of沪铜is 18%, a daily increase of 0.13%. The 40 - day historical volatility of沪铜is 17.2%, a daily increase of 0.11%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month is 18.15%, a daily increase of 0.0117. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.26, a daily increase of 0.0111. [2] 3.7 Industry News - The relevant person in charge of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Office explained the spirit of the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference, stating that expanding domestic demand is the top priority next year, and efforts should be made to boost consumption from both supply and demand sides, and coordinate to boost consumption and expand investment. In addition, efforts should be made to stabilize the real estate market from both supply and demand sides next year. On the supply side, new supply should be strictly controlled, existing inventory should be revitalized, and inventory digestion should be accelerated. On the demand side, more targeted measures should be taken to fully release the rigid and improvement - oriented housing demand of residents. - According to China Securities Journal, the core tone of the implementation of monetary policy in 2025 has always been "supportive". Looking forward to 2026, this tone is expected to continue. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, adhere to precise policies and coordinated efforts, flexibly use tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to promote the low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost. It will also better use structural monetary policy tools to precisely support key areas and weak links of the real economy. In addition, it will continue to explore and expand the central bank's macro - prudential and financial stability functions, maintain the stability of the financial market, and firmly hold the bottom line of preventing systemic financial risks. - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that the number of non - farm payrolls in the United States increased by 64,000 in November, higher than the market expectation of 50,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, reaching a new high since September 2021. In addition, non - farm payrolls in October decreased significantly by 105,000, far exceeding the expected decrease of 25,000, and the figures for August and September were also revised down by a total of 33,000. The average hourly wage in November increased by 3.5% year - on - year, the lowest growth rate since May 2021. - The preliminary value of the U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in December dropped to 51.8, a five - month low. The preliminary value of the Services PMI dropped from 54.1 to 52.9, and the preliminary value of the Composite PMI dropped to 53, all reaching six - month lows. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - In the domestic market, currently, the quotes of processed sugar and beet sugar are relatively stable. With the arrival of new sugar from Guangxi in the sales areas and poor market transactions, the competition among the three sugar sources affects prices negatively. As of now, in the 25/26 sugar - making season, 66 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, 5 less than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 537,500 tons, 29,000 tons less than last year. In Yunnan, 29 sugar mills have started production, 10 more than last year, and over half of the sugar mills have started operation. Overall, the new sugar - making season is approaching its peak, supply is increasing, spot prices are weakening, and there is a lack of bullish drivers. It is expected that the sugar price will fluctuate at a low level in the future [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5,139 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 487,935 lots, up 6,509 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts is 611, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 81,558 lots, down 2,553 lots; the total valid warehouse receipt forecast is 1,490, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,094 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; the estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,188 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; the estimated import - processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4,116 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,217 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan. The spot price of sugar in Yunnan Kunming is 5,245 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; in Guangxi Nanning, it is 5,320 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Guangxi Liuzhou, it is 5,390 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 tons, up 5.49 tons; the planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, up 8.94 thousand hectares; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 330.2 tons, down 90.3 tons; the cumulative production of cane sugar in Yunnan is 4.48 tons, down 237.4 tons [2] Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,146 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; outside the quota (50% tariff), it is 52 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan. The price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,124 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; outside the quota (50% tariff), it is 23 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan. The monthly sugar import volume is 75 tons, up 20 tons; the cumulative import volume is 390 tons, up 74 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 88.3 tons, up 34.39 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1,096.2 tons, down 495.5 tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.1%, down 0.46%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 8.12%, down 0.48%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 6.83%, up 1.29%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.84%, up 0.54% [2] Industry News - According to the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association Unica, in the second half of November 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 15.993 million tons of sugar - cane, a year - on - year decrease of 21.08%, and produced 724,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 32.94%. As of December 1, in the 25/26 sugar - making season (April 2025 - March 2026), the central - southern region of Brazil had cumulatively crushed 592 million tons of sugar - cane, a year - on - year decrease of 1.92%, and cumulatively produced 39.904 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 1.13%, with a cumulative sugar - making ratio of 51.12%, higher than 48% in the same period last year. ICE raw sugar futures closed down on Tuesday due to favorable weather in the Brazilian production area. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on ICE closed down 0.13 cents or 0.90% at 14.82 cents per pound [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 17, the JM2605 contract closed at 1062.0, up 0.33%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was reported at 1320, equivalent to 1100 on the futures market. Fundamentally, the number of customs - cleared vehicles from Mongolia remained high at the end of the year, and the inventory at Ganqimaodu Port had reached 329 tons. Technically, the daily K - line was below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, with a short - term outlook of weak and volatile movement [2]. - On December 17, the J2601 contract closed at 1530.5, up 1.93%. The spot price had a second - round price cut. Macroscopically, measures would be taken to stabilize the real estate market from both supply and demand sides next year. Fundamentally, the pig iron output decreased by 3.10 tons to 229.20 tons this period, and the coke inventory was moderately weak. Technically, the daily K - line was below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, with a short - term outlook of weak and volatile movement [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price was 1062.00 yuan/ton, down 5.50 yuan; J main contract closing price was 1530.50 yuan/ton, up 16.00 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract holdings were 708494.00 lots, down 27677.00 lots; J futures contract holdings were 41588.00 lots, down 1248.00 lots [2]. - Net holdings of the top 20 JM contracts were - 49451.00 lots, down 13994.00 lots; net holdings of the top 20 J contracts were 749.00 lots, down 163.00 lots [2]. - JM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 91.50 yuan/ton, down 2.50 yuan; J 5 - 1 month contract spread was 133.00 yuan/ton, down 22.50 yuan [2]. - JM warehouse receipts were 200.00 pieces, unchanged; J warehouse receipts were 2070.00 pieces, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimaodu Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 970.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan Grade I metallurgical coke was 1775.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 160.00 US dollars/wet ton, down 1.50 US dollars; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of imported prime coking coal from Australia at Jingtang Port was 1490.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Grade I metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of prime coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port was 1630.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis was 244.50 yuan/ton, down 16.00 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1350.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM main contract basis was 548.00 yuan/ton, up 5.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 27.30 million tons, down 0.60 million tons; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 327.30 million tons, down 5.10 million tons [2]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.38%, down 0.01%; the monthly raw coal output was 42679.00 million tons, up 2004.00 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 4405.30 million tons, up 231.30 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 189.80 million tons, down 0.60 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 481.60 million tons, up 11.00 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports was 248.60 million tons, up 2.80 million tons [2]. - The weekly total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 1037.30 million tons, up 28.10 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 87.32 million tons, up 10.88 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 794.65 million tons, down 3.62 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 635.28 million tons, up 10.03 million tons [2]. - The weekly available days of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises were 12.82 days, down 0.06 days; the weekly available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills were 11.66 days, up 0.37 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 1059.32 million tons, down 33.04 million tons; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 0.00 million tons, down 73.00 million tons [2]. - The monthly output of coking coal was 4231.51 million tons, up 255.59 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.16%, down 0.68% [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants was 44.00 yuan/ton, up 14.00 yuan; the monthly output of coke was 4170.00 million tons, down 19.60 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 78.61%, down 1.53%; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.90%, down 1.16% [2]. - The monthly output of crude steel was 6987.00 million tons, down 212.70 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission stated in an article in Qiushi Journal that it would accelerate the improvement of the system and mechanism for expanding domestic demand and promote the removal of unreasonable restrictions on consumption such as automobiles and housing [2]. - In 2025, many defaulted real - estate enterprises basically completed the task of ensuring the delivery of housing projects, and made progress in debt restructuring. However, they were reluctant to develop a large amount of land acquired at high premiums before 2021 [2]. - French President Macron called on the EU to reshape its relationship with China and emphasized that addressing global economic imbalances would be the core of France's agenda as the G7 chair next year [2].

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 | | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | 2025/12/16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | | 1686.800 | | -27.8↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 1112.7 | -25.80↓ | | 期货盘面 | EC2602-EC2604价差 -22.20↓ EC2602-EC2606价差 | 574.10 | | | 396.80 | -42.50↓ | | EC合约基差 | +59.20↑ | -176.34 | | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | -582↓ | 32483 | | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 1.46↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | 15 ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铝类产业日报 2025/12/16 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 21,845.00 -110.00 | -75.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -45.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 2,541.00 -128.00 | +4.00↑ -113.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 288,833.00 | -5540.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 190,885.00 | -15090.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 34,975.00 | 0.00 库存 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly, with an increase in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis [2]. - On the fundamental raw material side, the spot processing fee index of copper concentrate remained at a low negative level, and the expectation of tight ore supply would have a long - term impact on the copper smelting end, providing cost support [2]. - In terms of supply, the price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting, was still relatively good, making up for some of the profit losses of smelters. The operating rate of smelters rebounded due to the resumption of production after previous overhauls, but the increase was only slight due to the tight raw materials [2]. - In terms of demand, boosted by macro expectations, copper prices were strong in the short term, but high prices inhibited the purchasing sentiment of downstream buyers, who became more cautious, and social inventories increased slightly [2]. - In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions was 1.25, a month - on - month increase of 0.1264, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility decreased slightly [2]. - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD chart, the two lines were below the 0 axis, and the green bars slightly converged. The conclusion was to conduct light - position trading in a volatile market and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 91,920.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 480.00 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 11,593.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 62.50 US dollars [2]. - The spread between adjacent months of the main contract was - 50.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 40.00 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 217,374.00 lots, an increase of 51,565.00 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 34,081.00 lots, a decrease of 1,852.00 lots; the LME copper inventory was 165,875.00 tons, a decrease of 25.00 tons [2]. - The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 89,389.00 tons, an increase of 484.00 tons; the cancelled LME copper warrants were 65,400.00 tons, a decrease of 600.00 tons [2]. - The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 45,784.00 tons, a decrease of 2,856.00 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 91,700.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 565.00 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market was 91,995.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400.00 yuan [2]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 48.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 43.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the CU main contract was - 220.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85.00 yuan; the LME copper cash - 3 months spread was - 4.39 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 25.08 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 245.15 million tons, a decrease of 13.56 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 43.08 US dollars/kiloton, a decrease of 0.22 US dollars [2]. - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 82,200.00 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 460.00 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 82,900.00 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 460.00 yuan [2]. - The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 1,400.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 100.00 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north was 1,000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 100.00 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 120.40 million tons, a decrease of 6.20 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 427,000.00 tons, a decrease of 13,000.00 tons [2]. - The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 63,090.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,100.00 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 970.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 0.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 78,150.00 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 200.40 million tons, a decrease of 22.80 million tons; the cumulative investment in power grid construction was 4,824.34 billion yuan, an increase of 446.27 billion yuan [2]. - The cumulative real estate development investment was 78,591.00 billion yuan, an increase of 5,028.30 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,390,000.00 million pieces, an increase of 213,000.00 million pieces [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 17.87%, a decrease of 0.32%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 17.09%, an increase of 0.09% [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month was 16.98%, a decrease of 0.0164%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.25, an increase of 0.1264 [2] 3.7 Industry News - China's economic "report card" for November was released. In November, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 4.8% year - on - year, the service industry production index increased by 4.2% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.3% year - on - year. From January to November, national fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, among which manufacturing investment increased by 1.9% and real estate development investment decreased by 15.9%. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in November remained unchanged at 5.1% [2]. - Xi Jinping's important article "Expanding Domestic Demand is a Strategic Move" was published in Qiushi Journal. The article pointed out that expanding domestic demand is related to both economic stability and economic security, and it is a strategic move rather than a temporary measure. Implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand is necessary for maintaining the long - term, sustainable and healthy development of China's economy and for meeting the people's growing needs for a better life [2]. - Federal Reserve's Williams said that monetary policy is well - prepared for 2026. It is expected that the US unemployment rate will drop to 4.5% by the end of 2025. The risks in the labor market have increased, while inflation risks have eased. The Fed's policy has shifted from mild tightening to neutral. It is expected that the inflation rate will rise to 2.5% in 2026 and fall to 2% in 2027. The Fed is expected to actively use the standing repurchase facility to manage liquidity [2]. - Federal Reserve Governor Milan reiterated that the Fed's policy stance poses unnecessary restrictions on the economy, and believes that after excluding "phantom inflation", the "underlying" inflation level is close to the Fed's target [2]

碳酸锂产业日报 2025/12/16 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建 议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发， 需注明出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 100,600.00 | -460.00↓ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -169,133.00 | -1008.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 666,027.00 | +3842.00↑ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -1,480.00 | +180.00↑ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 15,286.00 | ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 项目 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 107.905 | 0.05% T主力成交量 | 77265 | -24631↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.795 | 0.03% TF主力成交量 | 67776 | -10826↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.426 | -0.02% TS主力成交量 | 34784 | -2027↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 111.390 | -0.19% TL主力成交量 | 148857 | -11561↓ | | 期货价差 | TL2603-2606价差 | -0.16 | +0.06↑ T03-TL03价差 | -3.49 | 0.17↑ | | | T2603-2606价差 | -0.02 | +0.02↑ TF03-T03价差 | -2.11 | -0.02↓ | | | TF2603-2606价差 | 0.00 | +0.00↑ TS03-T03价差 | -5.48 | -0.06↓ | | ...