Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On Wednesday, the RB2605 contract fluctuated with a slight upward trend. Macroscopically, the Central Financial Office responded to economic hot - issues, stating that next year efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market from both supply and demand sides. The supply side should strictly control increments, revitalize stocks, and accelerate inventory digestion, while the demand side should take more targeted measures to fully release residents' rigid and improvement - oriented housing demands. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar dropped to 1.7878 million tons, at a historically low level in the same period. The terminal demand in the off - season continued to shrink, with the apparent demand dropping to 2.0309 million tons, significantly lower than the same period last year. Overall, the rebar market faced weak supply and demand, and the futures price fluctuated within a range due to the influence of furnace materials and domestic macro - expectations. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract showed that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,084 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the position volume was 1,604,729 lots, down 10,413 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was 27,107 lots, down 7,450 lots; the RB1 - 5 contract spread was 11 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 78,657 tons, unchanged; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread was 161 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; (actual weight) was 3,385 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,490 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,160 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 216 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/wet ton, up 5 yuan; the first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB price) was 1,640 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,140 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,940 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 154.2786 million tons, up 1.3152 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 499,600 tons, up 55,100 tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.3522 million tons, up 99,700 tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.1165 million tons, down 16,000 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.61%, down 1.53 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.90%, down 1.16 percentage points [2]. Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar of sample steel mills was 1.7878 million tons, down 105,300 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 39.19%, down 2.31 percentage points; the mill inventory was 1.408 million tons, down 18,800 tons; the social inventory in 35 cities was 3.387 million tons, down 224,300 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 68.75%, up 1.04 percentage points; the monthly output of domestic crude steel was 69.87 million tons, down 2.13 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese rebar was 1.475 million tons, up 41,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 948,400 tons, up 20,400 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The national real - estate prosperity index was 91.90, down 0.52; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was - 2.60%, down 0.90 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion was - 15.90%, down 1.20 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was - 1.10%, down 1.00 percentage points [2]. Industry News - As of December 16, 5 steel mills announced their winter - storage policies for 2026, covering the Northeast, North, and Northwest regions. The policies require full payment before December 20. Unsettled resources will be settled at the average price from March 16 to April 15 next year, with a daily settlement cap of 15%. The interest - calculation method is 6‰ per day, and the interest will stop accruing on the day of price - fixing. Handan launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather on December 14. Steel enterprises in the jurisdiction strictly implemented production - restriction and control measures. Three blast furnaces of plate mills were under maintenance, and the daily hot - metal output was expected to decrease by about 15,000 tons. Another blast furnace planned to join the maintenance, which would further affect the daily hot - metal output by about 5,000 tons [2]. Key Points to Watch - The weekly output, in - mill inventory, and social inventory of rebar on Thursday [2]

国债期货日报 2025/12/17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.005 | 0.1% T主力成交量 | 72309 | -4956↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.840 | 0.06% TF主力成交量 | 56518 | -11258↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.434 | 0.01% TS主力成交量 | 24444 | -10340↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 112.140 | 0.63% TL主力成交量 | 126024 | -22833↓ | | 期货价差 | TL2603-2606价差 | -0.19 | -0.03↓ T03-TL03价差 | -4.14 | -0.65↓ | | | T2603-2606价差 | -0.02 | -0.01↓ TF03-T03价差 | -2.16 | -0.05↓ | | | TF2603-2606价差 | 0.00 | +0.00↑ TS03-T03价差 | -5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the I2605 contract increased in volume and rose. In terms of the macro - situation, the US added 64,000 non - farm payrolls in November 2025, higher than the market expectation of 50,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. In terms of supply and demand, the shipment and arrival volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil increased simultaneously. With the continuous decline of hot metal production, the iron ore port inventory is expected to continue to increase. Overall, the ports show a trend of inventory accumulation, and the supply is relatively loose. However, the raw material inventory of steel mills is generally at a medium - low level, and there is a certain expectation of buying near the end - of - year winter storage. Coupled with the futures discount to the spot price, it provides support for the futures price. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebound upwards. It is recommended for short - term trading and attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 768 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the position volume of the I main contract is 488,996 lots, up 9,427 lots; the spread between the I 1 - 5 contracts is 20.5 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is 8,171 lots, down 7,174 lots; the Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt of I is 1,400 lots, unchanged; the quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract as of 15:00 is 103.55 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar [2] 现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 843 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 840 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan; the price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port is 752 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 72 yuan, down 6 yuan; the 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 106.20 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 3.09, down 0.03; the estimated import cost is 862 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly, 10,000 tons) is 3,592.50, up 224.00; the arrival volume of 47 ports in China (weekly, 10,000 tons) is 2,928.10, up 358.90; the iron ore inventory of 47 ports (weekly, 10,000 tons) is 16,111.47, up 120.36; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly, 10,000 tons) is 8,834.20, down 150.53; the iron ore import volume (monthly, 10,000 tons) is 11,054.00, down 77.00; the available days of iron ore (weekly, days) is 21.00, up 4; the daily output of 266 mines (weekly, 10,000 tons) is 37.87, up 0.07; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly, %) is 60.07, up 0.05; the iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly, 10,000 tons) is 44.97, up 5.41; the BDI index is 2,204.00, up 11.00; the iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 25.00 US dollars/ton, up 2.84 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 10.525 US dollars/ton, down 0.30 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly, %) is 78.61, down 1.53; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly, %) is 85.90, down 1.16; the domestic crude steel output (monthly, 10,000 tons) is 6,987, down 213 [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily, %) is 12.85, up 0.48; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily, %) is 15.41, up 0.10; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily, %) is 15.96, up 1.37; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily, %) is 15.82, down 0.93 [2] Industry News - On December 15, the total port inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 16,092.66 tons, an increase of 68.68 tons from the previous Monday; the total inventory at 45 ports was 15,382.46 tons, a week - on - week increase of 33.48 tons. From December 8 to December 14, the total inventory of iron ore at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1.172 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23,600 tons, showing a slight decline. The current inventory level is slightly lower than the average since the fourth quarter of this year [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The latest non - farm report shows that the US labor market remains weak, with the unemployment rate rebounding sharply in November. The expectation of an FOMC rate cut in March next year has increased, and the main platinum and palladium futures contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continue to rise strongly [2]. - The recent price increase of platinum and palladium is mainly driven by spot shortages and arbitrage trading. The tightening of physical supply and the increase in palladium ETF holdings exacerbate the supply - demand contradiction, and high basis and spreads stimulate arbitrage motives [2]. - In the medium and long term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit, and the expansion of medium - to - long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand is weakening due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the popularization of new energy vehicles, but the bullish sentiment driven by rate - cut expectations may support prices, and its current low price may make it a cost - effective choice again [2]. - Due to the recent large increase in the precious metal market, short - term correction risks should be noted. Specific price ranges for different contracts and spot prices are provided [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum main contract closing price (daily, yuan/g): 527.55, up 34.50; Palladium main contract closing price (daily, yuan/g): 455.15, up 29.75. - Main contract positions: Platinum (daily, lots): 10387.00, down 277.00; Palladium (daily, lots): 3179.00, up 90.00 [2] 3.2现货市场 - SGE platinum spot price (Pt9995): 497.89, up 26.57; Yangtze River palladium spot price: 406.00, up 21.00. - Platinum main contract basis (daily, yuan/g): - 29.66, down 7.93; Palladium main contract basis (daily, yuan/g): - 49.15, down 8.75 [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly, contracts): 9966.00, down 243.00; Palladium CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly, contracts): 3003.00, down 342.00. - Total platinum supply (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 220.40, down 0.80; Total palladium supply (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 293.00, down 5.00. - Total platinum demand (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 261.60, up 25.60; Total palladium demand (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 287.00, down 27.00 [2] 3.4 Macro Data - US dollar index: 98.22, down 0.02; VIX volatility index: 16.48, down 0.06; 10 - year US Treasury real yield (%): 1.92, down 0.01. - In November, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 64,000, higher than the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. In October, non - farm payrolls decreased by 105,000, far more than the expected 25,000. The data for August and September were also revised down by a total of 33,000. The average hourly wage in November increased by 3.5% year - on - year, the lowest growth rate since May 2021. - In October, US retail sales were flat month - on - month, slightly lower than the expected 0.1% growth, mainly dragged down by a 1.6% decline in auto sales. Core retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month, slightly exceeding expectations. - The preliminary value of the US S & P Global Manufacturing PMI in December dropped to 51.8, a 5 - month low. The preliminary value of the Services PMI dropped from 54.1 to 52.9, and the preliminary value of the Composite PMI dropped to 53, all at 6 - month lows. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent is optimistic about the US economic outlook, expecting the full - year GDP growth rate in 2025 to reach 3.5%, and Trump will announce the candidate for the Fed Chairman in early January next year [2] 3.5 Key Points to Follow - On December 17 at 21:30, pay attention to the year - on - year change of US retail sales (%); on December 18 at 21:30, pay attention to the month - on - month change of US core CPI (%) [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report anticipates short - term shock adjustment of Shanghai nickel and suggests attention to the pressure of MA5. The fundamental situation shows that the import volume of nickel ore is on a downward trend as the Philippines enters the rainy season. Although there are potential variables in Indonesia's RKAB approval and possible export policy changes, the recent impact on supply is limited. On the smelting side, the supply pressure in the pure nickel market is relatively high. On the demand side, the production volume of stainless steel is expected to be high, and new energy vehicles contribute a small increase in demand. Both domestic and overseas nickel inventories are increasing [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 113,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,510 yuan/ton; the 01 - 02 contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 40 yuan/ton. The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 14,255 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 40 US dollars/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 94,065 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 11,503 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures positions of Shanghai nickel is - 26,857 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,773 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 253,392 tons, with no change; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 44,677 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2,169 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants total 9,528 tons, with no change; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 38,261 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 432 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 115,300 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 550 yuan/ton; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 115,300 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 450 yuan/ton. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no change; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no change. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,550 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 960 yuan/ton. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 189.26 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0.99 US dollars/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of nickel ore is 468.28 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 143.17 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,455.87 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 13.84 million tons. The average import unit price of nickel ore is 57.33 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0.61 US dollars/ton; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, with no change [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of ferronickel is 22,900 metal tons, with an increase of 1,200 metal tons. The import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 18,631.22 tons; the import volume of ferronickel is 905,100 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 180,200 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8 million tons, with an increase of 37,300 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 587,700 tons, with an increase of 2,400 tons [2]. Industry News - The US employment continues to cool down. In November, non - farm payrolls rebounded slightly, but the unemployment rate reached a four - year high. Traders estimate two interest rate cuts next year. The "New Fed News Agency" said that the non - farm data is unlikely to significantly change the Fed's judgment when weighing whether to cut interest rates again. The US Markit composite PMI in December hit a six - month low, with a sharp rise in price indicators and weak employment indicators. The eurozone manufacturing PMI in December accelerated its contraction, with Germany hitting a 10 - month low and France and Italy also showing weak performance. The macro - level shows that although the non - farm employment in the US in November exceeded expectations, the unexpected rise in the unemployment rate to a four - year high did not significantly change the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The central financial office said that the growth rates of investment and consumption are expected to recover next year, and the real estate supply side should strictly control the increment and revitalize the stock [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall non - farm payroll report is weak, increasing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in March next year. The London silver price soared in the early session, and the Shanghai silver main contract broke through the significant threshold of 15,000 yuan per kilogram, hitting a new record high [1] - The growth of employment in the US in November remains weak, and the unemployment rate rises, indicating a continued cooling in the labor market. There are differences within the Fed regarding whether to be more worried about inflation or the employment market, and FOMC officials currently show low willingness to continue cutting interest rates [1] - In the context of easing tariff tensions, the core inflation approaching the target range paves the way for further actions. If subsequent non - farm data is stronger than expected, the Fed's internal stance may turn hawkish [1] - In the short term, considering the market has fully priced in the Fed's interest rate cut, the recent pulse - like rise in silver may increase the risk of short - term corrections, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 979.720 yuan/gram, up 8.3 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 15,512 yuan/kilogram, up 846 yuan [1] - The main contract holding volume of Shanghai gold is 197,105 hands, up 899 hands; that of Shanghai silver is 18,292 hands, up 938 hands [1] - The main contract trading volume of Shanghai gold is 275,889 hands, down 18,015 hands; that of Shanghai silver is 1,627,068 hands, up 55,692 hands [1] - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai gold is 91,722 kilograms, up 420 kilograms; that of Shanghai silver is 911,924 kilograms, up 21,209 kilograms [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 972.71 yuan/gram, up 7.82 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver is 15,190 yuan/kilogram, up 318 yuan [1] 3.3 Basis - The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 7.01 yuan/gram, down 0.48 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 322 yuan/kilogram, down 528 yuan [1] 3.4 Supply and Demand - The SPDR gold ETF holding is 1,051.68 tons, unchanged; the SLV silver ETF holding is 16,018.29 tons, down 42.31 tons [1] - The non - commercial net long position of gold in CFTC (weekly) is 204,588 contracts, down 5,751 contracts; that of silver is 32,188 contracts, down 1,828 contracts [1] - The total quarterly supply of gold is 1,313.07 tons, up 86.24 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 32,056 tons, up 482 tons [1] - The total quarterly demand for gold is 1,257.90 tons, up 174.15 tons; the total annual demand for silver is 35,716 tons, down 491 tons [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index is 98.22, down 0.06; the real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond is 1.92%, down 0.01% [1] - The VIX volatility index is 16.48, down 0.01; the ratio of S&P 500 to gold price is 1.57, down 0.01; the gold - silver ratio is 68.66, up 1.09; the CBOE gold volatility indicator is 20.18, down 1.02 [1] 3.6 Industry News - The US added 64,000 non - farm jobs in November, higher than the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. The non - farm jobs in October decreased significantly by 105,000, far exceeding the expected 25,000 decline, and the figures for August and September were also revised down by 33,000 in total. The average hourly wage in November increased 3.5% year - on - year, the lowest growth rate since May 2021 [1] - The US retail sales in October were flat month - on - month, slightly lower than the expected 0.1% growth, mainly dragged down by a 1.6% decline in auto sales. Core retail sales increased 0.5% month - on - month, slightly exceeding the expected 0.4% growth [1] - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in December dropped to 51.8, a 5 - month low. The preliminary value of the service PMI dropped from 54.1 to 52.9, and the preliminary value of the composite PMI dropped to 53, all hitting 6 - month lows [1] - US Treasury Secretary Bessent expressed optimism about the US economic outlook, expecting the full - year GDP growth rate in 2025 to reach 3.5%. Bessent pointed out that Trump will announce the candidate for the Fed Chairman in early January next year [1]

苹果产业日报 2025-12-17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) -7 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) | 9122 | | | 142268 | -10582 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果(日,手) | 3749 | 803 | | | | | | 甘肃静宁苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, 山东沂源苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, | 5.25 | 0 | | 2.6 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 元/斤) 元/斤) 陕西洛川苹果现货价格(纸袋70#以上半 山东烟台栖霞现货价格(纸袋80#以上一 | | | | | | | | | 4.2 | 0 | | 4 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 商品)(日,元/斤) 全国:苹果产量(年,万吨) 二级果农货)(日,元/斤) 水果批发价:苹果(周,元/公斤) 0 平均批发价:富士苹果(周,元/公斤) | 5128.51 9.37 | 168.34 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 17, 2025, the SM2603 contract was reported at 5,758 yuan/ton, up 0.17%, and the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot was reported at 5,540 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The central financial office stated that expanding domestic demand is the top - priority task for next year. In terms of fundamentals, inventory is rising rapidly, production is slightly falling from a high level, and inventory has been rising for 11 consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore at the raw material end decreased by 30,000 tons, and the overall molten iron demand is seasonally falling. The Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 250 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit is - 400 yuan/ton. The steel group's first - round inquiry for silicon - manganese in December is 5,700 yuan/ton, compared with the November pricing of 5,820 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [2]. - On December 17, 2025, the SF2603 contract was reported at 5,546 yuan/ton, up 1.06%, and the Ningxia ferrosilicon spot was reported at 5,250 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. Most global investment banks predict that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by a cumulative 50 basis points in two rate cuts in 2026. In terms of supply - demand, market transactions are mainly for terminal rigid demand restocking, and the inventory is at a neutral level. The Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 340 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit is - 490 yuan/ton. In December, the tender price of HBIS 75B ferrosilicon is 5,600 yuan/ton, 80 yuan/ton lower than the previous round. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM main contract closing price: 5,758 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton; SF main contract closing price: 5,546 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton [2]. - SM futures contract open interest: 576,377 lots, down 14,856 lots; SF futures contract open interest: 407,708 lots, down 15,399 lots [2]. - Net positions of the top 20 in SM: - 31,625 lots, down 2,746 lots; net positions of the top 20 in SF: - 33,843 lots, down 2,433 lots [2]. - SM 5 - 1 month contract spread: 60 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; SF 5 - 1 month contract spread: 62 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton [2]. - SM warehouse receipts: 24,832 pieces, down 200 pieces; SF warehouse receipts: 12,972 pieces, down 96 pieces [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,540 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [2]. - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,200 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,570 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,250 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [2]. - Manganese - silicon index average (weekly): 5,544 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton; SF main contract basis (daily): - 296 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton [2]. - SM main contract basis (daily): - 218 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 lump, Tianjin Port: 32 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; silica (98%, Northwest): 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke: 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; semi - coke (medium material, Shenmu): 850 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory (weekly): 448.30 million tons, down 30,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate (weekly): 36.85%, up 0.14 percentage points; ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate (weekly): 32.44%, down 1.36 percentage points [2]. - Manganese - silicon supply (weekly): 189,245 tons, up 1,295 tons; ferrosilicon supply (weekly): 106,300 tons, down 2,500 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory (half - monthly): 381,000 tons, up 5,500 tons; ferrosilicon manufacturer inventory (half - monthly): 77,840 tons, up 5,200 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Manganese - silicon inventory days of national steel mills (monthly): 15.84 days, up 0.14 days; ferrosilicon inventory days of national steel mills (monthly): 15.80 days, up 0.13 days [2]. - Manganese - silicon demand of five major steel grades (weekly): 112,787 tons, down 3,804 tons; ferrosilicon demand of five major steel grades (weekly): 18,048 tons, down 718.10 tons [2]. - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly): 78.61%, down 1.53 percentage points; blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly): 85.90%, down 1.16 percentage points [2]. - Crude steel output (monthly): 69.87 million tons, down 2.127 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission pointed out in an article in Qiushi magazine that it is necessary to accelerate the improvement of the institutional mechanism for expanding domestic demand, promote the removal of unreasonable restrictive measures on consumption such as automobiles and housing, and establish a management method suitable for new consumption formats, models, and scenarios [2]. - In 2025, many defaulted real - estate enterprises "shook off their historical burdens", with the task of ensuring the delivery of housing projects basically completed and much progress made in debt restructuring. However, many defaulted real - estate enterprises are reluctant to develop a large amount of land acquired at high premiums before 2021 due to reasons such as easy losses in development and outdated planning that does not conform to market trends. Solving the problem of idle land has become a key issue to be explored [2]. - French President Macron called in a column in the Financial Times for the EU to urgently reshape its relationship with China, emphasizing that addressing global economic imbalances will be at the core of France's agenda as the G7 chair next year. He added that the EU should remain open and allow China to invest in areas where it leads [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 21,915.00 -95.00 | +70.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) +15.00↑ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 2,558.00 -118.00 | +17.00↑ +10.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 293,990.00 | +5157.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 180,426.00 | -10459.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 67,000.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 258,836.00 | -1119.00↓ | | 期货市场 | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） | 2,882.50 | +7.50↑ LME铝库存（日，吨） | 519,600.00 | 0.00 | | | 沪铝前20名净持仓（日，手） | - ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report suggests trading with a light position in a volatile market and controlling risks by paying attention to trading rhythms [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 108,620 yuan/ton, up 8,020 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is -177,850 lots, down 8,717 lots; the position of the main contract is 668,589 lots, up 2,562 lots; the spread between near and far contracts is -1,400 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 15,636 lots/ton, up 350 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 97,050 yuan/ton, up 1,200 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 94,450 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is -11,570 yuan/ton, down 6,820 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 1,230 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 11,600 yuan/ton, up 625 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 4,058 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 53,980 tons, up 2,450 tons; the monthly import volume is 23,880.69 tons, up 4,283.79 tons; the monthly export volume is 245.91 tons, up 95.10 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, unchanged; the monthly output of power batteries is 176,300 MWh, up 5,700 MWh; the prices of manganese - acid lithium, hexafluorophosphate lithium, cobalt - acid lithium, and various ternary materials are unchanged [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The operating rates of ternary cathode materials and lithium iron phosphate cathode materials are 51% and 63% respectively, down 1 percentage point each; the monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,880,000 vehicles, up 108,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,823,000 vehicles, up 108,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 47.48%, up 0.74 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume is 14,780,000 vehicles, up 3,518,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume is 300,000 vehicles, up 44,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume is 2.315 million vehicles, up 1.174 million vehicles [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 53.25%, up 2.75 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility is 51.25%, up 3.05 percentage points; the total call position is 130,660 contracts, up 2,257 contracts; the total put position is 108,401 contracts, up 3,847 contracts; the put - call ratio of the total position is 82.96%, up 1.5377 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money options is up 0.0005 percentage points [2] Industry News - In 2026, the top priority is to expand domestic demand, and efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market from both supply and demand sides; Yichun plans to cancel 27 mining licenses, including Jiangte Motor's mining right, and the company has submitted an objection; it is estimated that in 2026, China's overseas production and sales of automobiles (including exports) will reach 8 million, with a 15% increase, and new energy vehicles will reach 3.5 million, with a two - year compound growth rate of 65%, and the export value of auto parts and lithium batteries will reach 180 billion US dollars [2] Market Analysis - The main contract of lithium carbonate fluctuates strongly, with an increase of 7.61% at the close. The position increases month - on - month, the spot price is at a discount to the futures price, and the basis weakens compared with the previous day. The raw material price is supported by the strong futures market and overseas mines' price - holding. The supply of lithium salt increases steadily due to good profits and new production lines. The demand remains strong due to high - level orders of downstream battery factories, and the industry chain continues to reduce inventory [2] Technical Analysis - On the 60 - minute MACD chart, the two lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars slightly converge [2]