Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - This week, the inventory level of inland methanol enterprises decreased due to pre - National Day holiday stocking by mid - and downstream enterprises and increased external procurement by some olefin enterprises in Inner Mongolia. However, domestic methanol ports continued to accumulate inventory significantly, and it is expected that the port inventory will continue the accumulation trend next week, with the specific accumulation amplitude depending on the unloading speed of foreign vessels. - With the profit recovery, the operating rate of some olefin enterprises in East China increased. The operating rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants increased slightly last week. After the offset of the expected restart of Shenhua Xinjiang in the middle of the month and the short - term shutdown of Qinghai Salt Lake olefin plant, the short - term industry operating rate may decline slightly. - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2360 - 2440 in the short term [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2407 yuan/ton, with a change of 9 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread was - 2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton. - The position of the main contract was 755,966 lots, a decrease of 12,659 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 108,488 lots. - The number of warehouse receipts was 14,519, an increase of 983 [2]. b. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2285 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2127.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 157.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 122 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton. - The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 262 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 323 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 297 euros/ton, an increase of 2 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 61 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. c. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.1 US dollars/million British thermal units, unchanged [2]. d. Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 100.23 tons, an increase of 11.33 tons; the inventory in South China ports was 42.54 tons, an increase of 1.51 tons. - The import profit of methanol was 17.36 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly import volume was 1.1027 million tons, a decrease of 0.1175 million tons. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 341,100 tons, an increase of 7700 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises was 84.84%, unchanged [2]. e. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 37.73%, a decrease of 4.31 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 4.83%, a decrease of 2.19 percentage points. - The operating rate of acetic acid was 84.24%, a decrease of 1 percentage point; the operating rate of MTBE was 62.22%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points. - The operating rate of olefins was 84.72%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefin was - 1073 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton [2]. f. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 13.77%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 17.96%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.3%, a decrease of 1.86 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 15.3%, a decrease of 1.86 percentage points [2]. g. Industry News - As of September 10, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 342,600 tons, a decrease of 4500 tons compared with the previous period, a 1.31% decrease; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 250,700 tons, an increase of 9400 tons compared with the previous period, a 3.91% increase. - As of September 10, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.5503 million tons, an increase of 122,600 tons compared with the previous data. The inventory in East China increased by 87,200 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 35,400 tons. - As of September 4, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 87.07%, a 0.62% increase compared with the previous period [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - L2601 is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short - term. Technically, attention should be paid to the support around 7200 and the pressure around 7300. The total inventory pressure is not large and is expected to maintain a destocking trend. The supply pressure in the industry is difficult to improve. The cost side provides certain support to international oil prices [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene is 7226 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the 1 - month contract is 7226 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the 5 - month contract is 7237 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the 9 - month contract is 7176 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan. The trading volume is 178,117 lots, an increase of 12,282 lots, and the open interest is 517,187 lots, a decrease of 790 lots. The 9 - 1 spread is - 50, up 29. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 345,595 lots, a decrease of 4219 lots; the short positions are 389,807 lots, an increase of 643 lots; the net long positions are - 44,212 lots, a decrease of 4862 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 7256.52 yuan/ton, down 6.09 yuan; in East China is 7335.95 yuan/ton, up 4.76 yuan. The basis is 27.52, up 15.91 [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore is 64.23 US dollars/barrel, up 0.31 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 597.25 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia is 841 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate is 80.55%, up 1.86 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film is 50.48%, up 0.92 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes is 30.33%, up 0.16 percentage points; the operating rate of PE agricultural film is 20.18%, up 2.72 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 6.62%, up 0.21 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.41%, up 0.12 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.22%, down 0.38 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 10.23%, down 0.35 percentage points [2] Industry News - From August 29th to September 4th, China's polyethylene production was 632,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.37%. The capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 80.55%, a week - on - week increase of 1.87 percentage points. The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products increased by 0.8% compared with the previous period. As of September 10th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 487,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.03%; as of September 5th, the inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses was 560,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, it is expected that supply will be abundant, demand will stabilize, and prices will remain under pressure overall. However, there may be variables due to anti - involution speculation. It is recommended to take long positions on the soda ash main contract at low levels in the short term, while paying attention to operational risks [2]. - For glass, it is advisable to wait for the bottoming signal before making a move, and it is recommended to wait and see for now. The market will fluctuate around the demand side, and the overall de - stocking trend remains unchanged. If the domestic market follows the interest - rate cut passively, the market may see growth [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1,281 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan), glass main contract closing price is 1,181 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan). Soda ash main contract position is 1,449,657 lots (down 20,863 lots), glass main contract position is 1,280,165 lots (down 7,519 lots) [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net position is - 273,172 (up 49,214), glass top 20 net position is - 154,993 (up 8,546). Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 7,759 tons (down 440 tons), glass exchange warehouse receipts are 2,088 tons (down 5 tons) [2]. - Soda ash September - January contract spread is - 119 (unchanged), glass September - January contract spread is - 186 (down 24). Soda ash basis is - 75 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan), glass basis is - 89 (up 7) [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1,203 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan), Central China heavy soda ash is 1,300 yuan/ton (unchanged). East China light soda ash is 1,250 yuan/ton (unchanged), Central China light soda ash is 1,200 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Shahe glass sheets are 1,096 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan), Central China glass sheets are 1,110 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 86.22% (up 3.75 percentage points), float glass enterprise operating rate is 76.01% (up 0.33 percentage points) [2]. - Glass in - production capacity is 15.96 million tons/year (unchanged), glass in - production production lines are 225 (up 1). Soda ash enterprise inventory is 1.8231 million tons (up 0.1 million tons), glass enterprise inventory is 63,050,000 weight boxes (up 484,000 weight boxes) [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Cumulative value of new real - estate construction area is 35,206 million square meters (up 4,841.68 million square meters), cumulative value of real - estate completion area is 25,034 million square meters (up 2,467.39 million square meters) [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Henan Haohua Junhua's soda ash plant resumed production with stable prices; Zhongyan Anhui Hongsifang's soda ash plant reduced production; Chongqing Heyou Industry's 400,000 - ton/year soda ash plant reduced operation; Tangshan Sanyou's 2.3 - million - ton/year soda ash plant reduced operation to about 70% capacity; Shandong Haitian Bio - Chemical's 1.5 - million - ton/year soda ash plant operated at about 70% capacity; Shandong Haihua's 3 - million - ton/year soda ash plant reduced operation; Guangdong Southern Alkali's 600,000 - ton/year soda ash plant operated at about 80% capacity; Anhui Huainan Alkali Plant's plant was under maintenance with a delayed start - up; Sichuan - Chongqing soda ash market was stable, and supply was expected to increase with plant resumption [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash: Supply is expected to be abundant, demand will stabilize, prices will be under pressure, but there may be variables due to anti - involution speculation. The short - term fundamental suppression still exists, and attention should be paid to capacity maintenance [2]. - Glass: Supply and demand are both at a low level. The market will fluctuate around the demand side, and the overall de - stocking trend remains unchanged. The growth of the automobile industry has weakened, and the probability of interest - rate cut is rising [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the freight index (European Line) futures prices showed mixed trends. The main contract EC2510 closed down 0.42%, and the far - month contracts declined between 1%. The spot indicators continued to fall with a wider decline, weakening the support for futures prices. The "price war" in the shipping market has put continuous pressure on the fundamentals. The US labor market is weakening, increasing the market's expectation of an interest rate cut this month. The internal demand in the eurozone remains weak. Overall, due to the uncertainty of the trade war and weak demand expectations for the freight index (European Line), the futures prices fluctuate greatly. Investors are advised to be cautious and control risks, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data [1] Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1267.400, down 5.4; EC second - main contract closing price: 1674, down 0.40 - EC2510 - EC2512 spread: - 406.60, up 7.60; EC2510 - EC2602 spread: - 256.60, up 2.10 - EC contract basis: 299.06, up 1.30 - EC main contract open interest: 47320, up 114 [1] Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly): 1566.46, down 207.14; SCFIS (US West Coast Line) (weekly): 980.48, down 33.42 - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1444.44, down 0.62; container ship capacity: 1227.97 (ten thousand TEUs), up 0.04 - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1149.14, down 7.18; CCFI (European Line) (weekly): 1638.77, down 47.03 - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 2079.00, down 60.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1923.00, down 77.00 - Average charter price (Panamax): 13741.00, up 493.00; Average charter price (Capesize): 27780.00, up 980.00 [1] Industry News - The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the high - quality completion of the "14th Five - Year Plan" series of themes. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the achievements of the industry and telecommunications industry in the past five years and responded to topics such as irrational competition in the industry, AI - empowered new industrialization, 5G new infrastructure progress, and optimizing the development environment for small and medium - sized enterprises - The State Council Information Office held a policy briefing. Relevant officials from the General Administration of Sport, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the Ministry of Commerce introduced the "Opinions on Releasing the Potential of Sports Consumption and Further Promoting the High - quality Development of the Sports Industry". The opinions put forward 20 measures with three prominent features: clear overall development goals (by 2030, the total scale of the sports industry will exceed 7 trillion yuan and a number of world - influential sports enterprises and events will be cultivated), a determination to strengthen the sports consumption market, and a solid foundation for industrial development - The US government released preliminary benchmark revision data. In the year ending March this year, the number of non - farm payrolls in the US was revised down by 911,000, equivalent to an average monthly decrease of nearly 76,000. This is the largest downward revision since 2000, worse than market expectations. More signs of a weakening labor market may lay the foundation for a series of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve starting as early as next week - Japan's Minister of Economic Revitalization, Akazawa Ryosei, said that the special measures of the Trump administration to lower auto tariffs on Japan and reduce the "reciprocal tariff" burden are expected to be implemented before the 16th [1] Key Data to Watch - September 11, 20:15: Eurozone ECB deposit facility rate as of September 11 - September 11, 20:30: US unadjusted CPI annual rate in August - September 11, 20:30: US initial jobless claims (in ten thousand) for the week ending September 6 - September 11, 20:30: US unadjusted core CPI annual rate in August [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry chain shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with limited price increases and high terminal transaction pressure. It is expected that the price will weaken, which will suppress the demand for polysilicon. The polysilicon market is expected to continue to adjust next week, and there is a greater possibility of a short - term downward trend due to fundamental factors. The report suggests to wait and see or consider laying out put options [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract is 52,885 yuan/ton, down 635 yuan; the open interest is 137,072 lots, down 5,908 lots; the 11 - 12 spread is - 2,425 yuan, down 145 yuan; the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread is 44,220 yuan/ton, down 890 yuan [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon is 51,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the basis is - 1,920 yuan/ton, up 2,140 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.2 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average prices of cauliflower, dense, and re - feeding materials are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2]. - **Upstream (Industrial Silicon)**: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract is 8,665 yuan/ton, up 255 yuan; the spot price is 9,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; monthly export volume is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; monthly output is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons; the total social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2]. - **Polysilicon Industry**: Monthly polysilicon output is 125,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; monthly import volume is 1,170 tons, up 57 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 6.76 US dollars/kg, up 0.14 US dollars; the monthly average import price is 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars [2]. - **Downstream**: Monthly solar cell output is 6.6382 million kilowatts, down 100,400 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB; monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 110,432,680 units, up 21,456,820 units; monthly import volume is 14,525,650 units, up 3,429,750 units; the monthly average import price is 0.29 US dollars/unit, down 0.02 US dollars; the photovoltaic industry comprehensive price index (SPI) for polysilicon is 29.72, up 0.62 [2]. 3.2 Industry News - On September 9 after the market, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced an adjustment to the trading fee standards and trading limits for certain industrial silicon and polysilicon futures contracts. Starting from September 11, the trading fee for the polysilicon futures PS2511 contract will be adjusted to 0.015% of the trading volume, and the same for intraday closing positions [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The weekly output of polysilicon is increasing, and the inventory has decreased slightly this week. However, due to industry anti - involution, the subsequent increase is expected to be limited [2]. - **Demand**: The price of silicon wafers is stable, and some enterprises have raised prices, but downstream buyers are hesitant. The weak terminal demand is gradually affecting the market [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase next week, with significant growth in the Southwest region due to the resumption of production during the wet season, while production in Xinjiang remains relatively stable [2]. - The overall demand from the three major downstream industries for industrial silicon remains flat. The organic silicon market is declining, reducing the expected increase in production and negatively impacting the demand for industrial silicon. The polysilicon industry is expected to significantly increase production in August, increasing the demand for industrial silicon, but the long - term demand for photovoltaic industry may shrink, limiting the continuous growth of polysilicon's demand for industrial silicon. The aluminum alloy industry has stable production but limited demand for industrial silicon [2]. - The industry inventory is still at a high level, and although the number of standard warehouse receipts has decreased, inventory digestion still faces pressure. The industrial silicon market is still weak, and it is recommended to consider mid - to long - term long positions if the price falls below 8,200 yuan [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,665 yuan/ton, up 255 yuan; the position of the main contract is 278,065 lots, down 7,975 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 73,146 lots, up 6,013 lots; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 49,955 lots, up 33 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon is 160 yuan, down 20 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 435 yuan/ton, down 255 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,020 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,840 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly output of silicone DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the overseas price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.2 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24,908.89 tons, down 861.29 tons; the weekly operating rate of silicone DMC is 70.59%, unchanged; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.536 million tons, down 133,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2]. Industry News - On the evening of September 9, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced an adjustment to the trading commission standards and trading limits for relevant contracts of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures. Starting from the trading session on September 11, the trading commission standard for the polysilicon futures PS2511 contract will be adjusted to 0.015% of the trading volume, and the intraday closing commission standard will also be adjusted to 0.015% of the trading volume [2]. - From January to July, the total operating income of national state - owned and state - holding enterprises was flat compared with the same period last year, and the total profit decreased by 3.3% year - on - year [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On September 10, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1117.0, down 1.93%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was reported at 1366, equivalent to 1146 on the futures market. The coking coal market is expected to move in a range, and investors should pay attention to risk control [2]. - On September 10, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1603.0, down 0.77%. The first - round price cut of coke on the spot market has been implemented. The coke market is expected to move in a range, and investors should pay attention to risk control [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1117.00 yuan/ton, down 6.50 yuan; the closing price of the J main contract was 1603.00 yuan/ton, up 5.50 yuan [2]. - The trading volume of the JM futures contract was 885248.00 lots, down 17361.00 lots; the trading volume of the J futures contract was 52202.00 lots, down 743.00 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 contracts for coking coal was - 117717.00 lots, up 8713.00 lots; the net position of the top 20 contracts for coke was - 4245.00 lots, down 164.00 lots [2]. - The spread between the JM5 - 1 contracts was 78.00 yuan/ton, down 3.50 yuan; the spread between the J5 - 1 contracts was 129.50 yuan/ton, up 1.50 yuan [2]. - The number of coking coal warehouse receipts was 1300.00, down 200.00; the number of coke warehouse receipts was 1430.00, up 120.00 [2]. Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 940.00 yuan/ton, up 8.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan Grade I metallurgical coke was 1720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 149.00 US dollars/wet ton, down 0.50 US dollars; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Australian prime coking coal imported at Jingtang Port was 1560.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Grade I metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of prime coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port was 1540.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the J main contract was 117.00 yuan/ton, down 5.50 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the JM main contract was 153.00 yuan/ton, up 6.50 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 25.60 million tons, up 0.40 million tons; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 280.60 million tons, down 5.60 million tons [2]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.35%, down 0.00%; the monthly raw coal output was 38098.70 million tons, down 4008.70 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 4273.70 million tons, up 712.70 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 188.60 million tons, down 2.60 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 464.77 million tons, up 9.36 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports was 260.76 million tons, down 7.90 million tons [2]. National Industrial Situation - The weekly inventory of coking coal in 247 steel mills was 795.76 million tons, down 16.09 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke in 247 sample steel mills across the country was 623.71 million tons, up 13.64 million tons [2]. - The available days of coking coal in the full - sample of independent coking enterprises was 13.09 days, down 0.16 days; the available days of coke in 247 sample steel mills was 11.71 days, up 0.93 days [2]. - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 962.30 million tons, up 53.11 million tons; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 89.00 million tons, up 38.00 million tons [2]. - The monthly output of coking coal was 4089.38 million tons, up 25.00 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.14%, down 0.22% [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was 64.00 yuan/ton, up 9.00 yuan; the monthly output of coke was 4185.50 million tons, up 15.20 million tons [2]. National Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.38%, down 2.80%; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.77%, down 4.23% [2]. - The monthly output of crude steel was 7965.82 million tons, down 352.58 million tons [2]. Industry News - The US government released preliminary benchmark revision data. In the year up to March this year, the number of non - farm payrolls in the US was revised down by 911,000, equivalent to an average monthly decrease of nearly 76,000 [2]. - The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the high - quality completion of the 14th Five - Year Plan. During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, the incremental value of China's manufacturing industry is expected to reach 8 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 30% of the global total, and the overall scale has remained the world's largest for 15 consecutive years [2]. - A JPMorgan trader said that "the day of the Fed's rate cut in September" would be the time when "the good news is exhausted". If the Fed cuts interest rates as expected at the meeting on September 17, this market - digested positive news may instead become a catalyst for investors to take profits and withdraw temporarily [2]. - Wang Qiuping, the spokesperson of the State Administration for Market Regulation, said that the administration has promptly interviewed major food - delivery platforms. The relevant platforms quickly responded, collectively voiced their commitment to abide by laws and regulations,杜绝 unfair competition, resist vicious subsidies, and promote the standardized and orderly development of the industry [2].

生猪产业日报 2025-09-10 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 13315 | 85 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 75719 | -2241 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 428 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -14964 | 367 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 13400 | -200 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 13000 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Wednesday, the HC2601 contract fluctuated widely. Tariff disturbances resurfaced, coal and coke were under pressure, and cost support weakened. Attention should be paid to the supply - demand data on Thursday. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are adjusting downward, and the red column turns green. Operationally, consider trading in the 3370 - 3310 range in the short term, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,342 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 106,885 lots, up 8,482 lots; the HC10 - 1 contract spread was 35 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 233 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 25,059 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,410 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangzhou was 3,370 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Wuhan was 3,440 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin was 3,320 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The HC main contract basis was 68 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 160 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 798 yuan/wet ton, up 12 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel was 2,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 2,990 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 13,825.32 tons, up 62.30 tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory was 40.66 tons, up 0.95 tons; the sample steel mill coke inventory was 623.54 tons, up 13.42 tons; the Hebei billet inventory was 136.53 tons, up 8.17 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.38%, down 2.80 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.77%, down 4.23 percentage points. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output was 314.24 tons, down 10.50 tons; the sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate was 80.27%, down 2.68 percentage points. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory was 79.98 tons, up 0.30 tons; the 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory was 294.36 tons, up 8.58 tons. The domestic crude steel output was 7,966 tons, down 353 tons; the steel net export volume was 901.00 tons, down 38.00 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly automobile production was 259.11 million vehicles, down 20.30 million vehicles; the monthly automobile sales were 259.34 million vehicles, down 31.11 million vehicles. The monthly air - conditioner production was 2,059.65 million units, down 778.66 million units; the monthly household refrigerator production was 873.07 million units, down 31.68 million units; the monthly household washing machine production was 877.43 million units, down 73.36 million units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Bloomberg reporters asked that according to reports, US President Trump personally told European officials that in order to force Russian President Putin to negotiate with Ukraine, he was willing to significantly increase tariffs on India and China, but only if the EU did the same. In August 2025, the national industrial producer ex - factory price decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month, and the month - on - month change turned from a 0.2% decrease to flat. The industrial producer purchase price decreased by 4.0% year - on - year and was flat month - on - month [2]. 3.7 Key Focus - Pay attention to the weekly hot - rolled coil output, factory inventory, and social inventory on Thursday [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends going long on Shanghai lead futures at low prices [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decrease while demand gradually increases, and combined with market expectations of a Fed rate cut, lead prices are expected to be supported [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,795 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 1,977 dollars/ton, down 15 dollars [3] - The spread between the September - October contracts of Shanghai lead was - 35 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the Shanghai lead open interest was 89,999 lots, up 3,876 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 1,759 lots, up 1,168 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt was 53,689 tons, down 131 tons [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 66,834 tons, up 2,162 tons; the LME lead inventory was 239,325 tons, down 3,800 tons [3] - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network was 16,700 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market was 16,880 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan [3] 现货市场 - The basis of the lead main contract was - 95 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 48.13 dollars/ton, down 4.77 dollars [3] - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 16,254 yuan, up 34 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,660 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan [3] - The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead was - 18,700 tons, up 7,100 tons; the number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 37.88%, up 0.61 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead was 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons [3] - The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 78.2%, unchanged; the weekly output of primary lead was 37,100 tons, unchanged [3] - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports was - 90 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons [3] - The ILZSG global lead mine output was 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons; the monthly lead ore import volume was 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [3] Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate was 400 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [3] - The monthly refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average price of waste batteries in the market was 10,108.93 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41.45 million pieces, down 425,000 pieces; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) was 19,900 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan [3] - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells was 2,208.67 points, up 87.22 points; the monthly automobile production was 2.51 million vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles [3] - The monthly new - energy vehicle production was 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles [3] Industry News - The US Supreme Court will hear Trump's tariff appeal case, with the debate scheduled for early November [3] - Macron appointed Defense Minister Lecornu as the French Prime Minister [3] - Sources said the Bank of Japan may slightly reduce its purchases of ultra - long - term Japanese government bonds in Q4 [3] - Trump said trade negotiations with India are ongoing and he will talk to Modi in the coming weeks [3] - NVIDIA released the Rubin CPX chip for ultra - long context inference, expected to be shipped in 2026 [3] - US employment data was significantly revised downward, with 911,000 jobs revised down in the 12 months up to March [3] - Nepal saw large - scale protests, with curfews declared in many places, and Prime Minister Oli submitted his resignation to President Bhandari [3] Market Outlook - The supply of lead concentrate remains tight, which may limit the increase in primary lead production; primary lead production is expected to remain stable [3] - The supply of recycled lead has significant regional differences, and the tight supply of waste battery raw materials restricts production [3] - The demand for lead - acid batteries is relatively stable, and the market expects an increase in demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" season, with good performance in the emerging energy storage field [3] - However, downstream enterprises are still mostly in a wait - and - see state, and overall demand is in a slow recovery stage [3] - Foreign lead inventories are falling, domestic inventories are rising, and warehouse receipts are decreasing, with overall inventories unchanged; demand has not effectively driven inventory reduction [3]