Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's restart of interest - rate cuts has driven the prices of platinum - group metals to continue rising, with the price of London platinum hitting a new record high. The recent price increases of platinum and palladium are mainly driven by spot shortages and arbitrage trading [2]. - In the medium - to - long - term, platinum prices may continue to be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the structural supply - demand deficit pattern, and the expected expansion of long - term demand in the hydrogen economy. However, the demand outlook for palladium is weakening due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new - energy vehicles. The palladium market is shifting from a supply shortage to a surplus, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may provide some support for its price [2]. - Given the significant recent price increases in the precious - metal market, short - term correction risks should be noted. Specific price ranges for different contracts and spot prices are provided [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum: The closing price of the platinum main contract was 485.75 yuan/gram, up 11.65 yuan. The main - contract holding volume was 10,387 hands, down 277 hands [2]. - Palladium: The closing price of the palladium main contract was 423.85 yuan/gram, up 19.15 yuan. The main - contract holding volume was 3,179 hands, up 90 hands [2]. 3.2现货市场 - Platinum: The spot price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (Pt9995) was 471.32 yuan/gram, up 4.47 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract was - 14.43 yuan/gram, down 7.18 yuan. The non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC (weekly) were 9,966 contracts, down 243 contracts [2]. - Palladium: The spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River market was 385 yuan/gram, up 19 yuan. The basis of the palladium main contract was - 38.85 yuan/gram, down 0.15 yuan. The non - commercial long positions of palladium in CFTC (weekly) were 3,003 contracts, down 342 contracts [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Platinum: The total annual supply in 2025 is expected to be 220.4 tons, down 0.8 tons. The total annual demand in 2025 is expected to be 261.6 tons, up 25.6 tons [2]. - Palladium: The total annual supply in 2025 is expected to be 293 tons, down 5 tons. The total annual demand in 2025 is expected to be 287 tons, down 27 tons [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index was 98.28, down 0.12. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.93%, unchanged. The VIX volatility index was 16.50, up 0.76 [2]. - US economic data: The December New York Fed Manufacturing Index was - 3.9 (expected 9.7, previous 18.7); the December NAHB Housing Market Index was 39 (expected 38, previous 38) [2]. - Fed officials' statements: Williams expects the US unemployment rate to fall to 4.5% by the end of 2025, noting increased labor - market risks and eased inflation risks. Milan believes the Fed's policy stance is an unnecessary constraint on the economy, and supports larger - scale interest - rate cuts in the future [2]. - CME "FedWatch": The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed in January next year is 24.4%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 75.6%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 43.5%, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 47.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 9.1% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The Fed's restart of interest - rate cuts has pushed up the prices of platinum - group metals. The recent price increases of platinum and palladium are due to spot shortages and arbitrage trading. The tightening of physical supply and increased ETF holdings of palladium have exacerbated the supply - demand contradiction, while large basis and spread differences have spurred arbitrage [2]. 3.6 Key Points of Attention - On December 16, at 21:30, the US November non - farm payrolls report will be released. At 23:00, the US Markit S&P Global PMI (services & manufacturing) will be released [2].

股指期货全景日报 2025/12/16 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF主力合约（2512） | 4499.4 | -52.8↓ IF次主力合约（2603） | 4451.4 | -57.0↓ | | | IH主力合约（2512） | 2951.4 | -36.8↓ IH次主力合约（2603） | 2943.8 | -37.6↓ | | | IC主力合约（2512） | 7010.2 | -113.2↓ IC次主力合约（2603） | 6843.4 | -108.0↓ | | | IM主力合约（2512） | 7189.0 | -127.0↓ IM次主力合约（2603） | 6960.2 | -118.0↓ | | | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1548.0 | -13.8↓ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 2510.8 | -59.4↓ | | 期货盘面 | IM-IC当月合约价差 | 178.8 | -13.4↓ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 4058.8 | -73.2↓ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 16, the JM2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1067.5, up 1.33%. After continuous decline, coking coal saw a technical rebound. In the short - term, it is expected to run weakly with fluctuations. [2] - On December 16, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1514.5, up 1.34%. The spot price had a second - round reduction. In the short - term, it is expected to run weakly with fluctuations. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price was 1067.50 yuan/ton, up 6.50 yuan; J main contract closing price was 1514.50 yuan/ton, up 11.00 yuan. [2] - JM futures contract holding volume was 736419.00 lots, down 2212.00 lots; J futures contract holding volume was 42837.00 lots, down 1615.00 lots. [2] - Net holding volume of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 35457.00 lots, up 3194.00 lots; net holding volume of the top 20 coke contracts was 912.00 lots, up 817.00 lots. [2] - JM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 94.00 yuan/ton, down 1.50 yuan; J 5 - 1 month contract spread was 155.50 yuan/ton, down 12.00 yuan. [2] - Coking coal warehouse receipts were 200.00 sheets, down 100.00 sheets; coke warehouse receipts were 2070.00 sheets, unchanged. [2] - JM main contract basis was 542.50 yuan/ton, down 6.50 yuan; J main contract basis was 260.50 yuan/ton, down 11.00 yuan. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Ganqimaodu Mongolian No. 5 raw coal price was 940.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; Tangshan Grade - 1 metallurgical coke price was 1775.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - Russian prime coking coal forward spot price was 161.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke price was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal price was 1490.00 yuan/ton, up 80.00 yuan; Tianjin Port Grade - 1 metallurgical coke price was 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal price was 1630.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke price was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal price was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price was 1350.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 27.90 million tons, up 0.80 million tons; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 332.40 million tons, up 11.00 million tons. [2] - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.38%, up 0.02%; the monthly raw coal output was 42679.00 million tons, up 2004.00 million tons. [2] - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 4405.30 million tons, up 231.30 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 189.80 million tons, down 0.60 million tons. [2] - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 481.60 million tons, up 11.00 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports was 248.60 million tons, up 2.80 million tons. [2] - The weekly total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 1037.30 million tons, up 28.10 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 87.32 million tons, up 10.88 million tons. [2] - The weekly inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 794.65 million tons, down 3.62 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 635.28 million tons, up 10.03 million tons. [2] - The weekly available days of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 12.82 days, down 0.06 days; the weekly available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 11.66 days, up 0.37 days. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 1059.32 million tons, down 33.04 million tons; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 0.00 million tons, down 73.00 million tons. [2] - The monthly output of coking coal was 4231.51 million tons, up 255.59 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.16%, down 0.68%. [2] - The weekly profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was 44.00 yuan/ton, up 14.00 yuan/ton. [2] - The monthly output of coke was 4170.00 million tons, down 19.60 million tons. [2] - The weekly blast furnace operation rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 78.61%, down 1.53%; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.90%, down 1.16%. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of crude steel was 6987.00 million tons, down 212.70 million tons. The steel market is facing a situation of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the price in January will first decline and then stabilize with a slight downward shift in the center of gravity. [2] - From January to November, infrastructure investment decreased by 1.1% year - on - year; manufacturing investment increased by 1.9%; real estate development investment decreased by 15.9%, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 7.8%. [2] 3.6 Industry News - On December 12, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs jointly announced to include some steel products in the scope of export license management. In the short - term, it will bring challenges such as slower export rhythm and increased compliance costs, but in the long - term, it will optimize the export structure and support the green and low - carbon transformation of the steel industry. [2]

| | | 贵金属期货日报 | | | 2025/12/16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 数据指标 | 环比 | 最新 | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 971.420 | -11.7↓ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | | 14666 | -127.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) 196,206.00 | -6832.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | | 17,354.00 | +10148.00↑ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 293,904.00 | -145858.00↓ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | | 1,571,376.00 | -785850.00↓ | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) 91302 | 0↑ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | | 890,715 | 32901↑ | | 现货市场 | 上金所黄金现货价 964.89 | -11.93↓ 华通一号白银现货价 | | 14,872.00 | 234.00↑ | | | 沪金主 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - As of December 11, 2025, the apple cold storage inventory in the main producing areas of China decreased by 49,700 tons compared to the previous week. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong and Shaanxi decreased. The sales atmosphere in Shandong was still weak, and the shipment in Shaanxi was relatively cold. The arrival volume in the sales area decreased, and the sales were not fast due to high prices. Oranges and other citrus fruits impacted apple sales. The current festival stocking was light, and there was a possibility of short - term price decline [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract was 9,129 yuan/ton, and the main contract position was 152,850 lots, an increase of 3,019 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 2,946 lots, an increase of 5,073 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, Shaanxi Luochuan, and Shandong Yantai Qixia remained unchanged, at 5.25 yuan/jin, 2.6 yuan/jin, 4.2 yuan/jin, and 4 yuan/jin respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The annual apple output in China was 51.2851 million tons, an increase of 1.6834 million tons. The weekly average wholesale price of apples was 9.37 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg. The weekly average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.13 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg. The total cold storage inventory of apples in China was 7.5855 million tons, a decrease of 49,600 tons. The storage capacity ratio of apples in Shandong was 53.73%, a decrease of 0.24%. The storage capacity ratio of apples in Shaanxi was 57.86%, a decrease of 0.35%. The monthly export volume of apples was 80,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts decreased by 58%. The monthly year - on - year export amount of apples decreased by 14.3%. The weekly profit of 80 first - and second - grade paper - bag apple storage merchants was 0 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale prices of pears, bananas, and watermelons were 6.74 yuan/kg, 5.47 yuan/kg, and 6.33 yuan/kg respectively. The weekly average daily arrival volume of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Guangdong Chalong, and Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale markets was 14.6, 17.8, and 23.8 respectively, with decreases of 2.6, 1.8, and 3 respectively [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and at - the - money put options for apples was 23.28% and 23.3% respectively, with increases of 1.02% and 1.04% [2] Industry News - The price of general - quality late - Fuji apples from fruit farmers in the producing areas weakened, and the transaction did not improve significantly. The shipment speed of late - Fuji apples in the producing areas was slow. The price in the Gansu producing area decreased with the decline in quality, while the prices in other producing areas remained stable [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The physical inventory of 36 sample points of red dates this week was 15,790 tons, an increase of 1,880 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 13.52% and a year - on - year increase of 22.01%. The inventory of sample points increased month - on - month. In the 2025 production season, the acquisition structure of grey dates was scattered. The acquisition cycle of large enterprises was limited, and some large enterprises did not conduct harvesting. Most of the货源 was concentrated in the hands of small and medium - sized merchants in the inland areas. With the carry - over inventory of old dates and the new - season supply, the overall supply of red dates was relatively loose. The downstream consumption lacked highlights, and there was hardly any obvious increase in the deep - processing and terminal markets. There were still 2 months until the Spring Festival, and the consumption situation during the peak season should be monitored [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of red dates was 8,965 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan; the position of the main contract was 119,763 lots, an increase of 294 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 8,556 lots, an increase of 347 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 883, unchanged; the total number of effective warehouse receipt forecasts was 1,134, an increase of 365 [2] 3.2现货市场 - The prices of red dates in various regions were mostly stable. The unified price of red dates in Kashgar was 6.5 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 4.4 yuan/jin; the unified price of red dates in Alar was 5.65 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Henan was 4.45 yuan/jin; the price of special - grade red dates in Henan was 9.9 yuan/kg; the price of special - grade red dates in Hebei was 9.76 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan; the price of special - grade red dates in Guangdong was 10.6 yuan/kg; the price of first - grade red dates in Guangdong was 9.5 yuan/kg [2] 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual output of red dates was 6.069 million tons, an increase of 3.187 million tons; the planting area was 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The national red date inventory was 15,790 tons, an increase of 1,880 tons. The monthly export volume of red dates was 2,205,220 kg, a decrease of 78,451 kg. The cumulative monthly export volume was 25,753,622 kg, an increase of 2,205,220 kg [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative sales volume of red dates of Hao Xiang Ni was 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons. The cumulative year - on - year increase in the output of red dates of Hao Xiang Ni was 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the Cui'erzhuang market in Hebei, 14 trucks arrived at the parking area, with an increase in arrivals mainly consisting of sub - standard products. After the new - season harvest, the raw materials were gradually returned to the factory for processing. The procurement cost of merchants was clear, and downstream customers purchased according to demand. In the Ruyifang market in Guangdong, 3 trucks arrived, and the mainstream arrival prices in the market were stable. Downstream merchants took goods according to demand. With the progress of the new red date harvest, the output of each production area was gradually becoming clear [2]

天然橡胶产业日报 2025-12-16 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | 15170 25 | -30 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 0 20号胶2-3价差(日,元/吨) | 12385 -5 | 25 -10 | | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 2785 | -55 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 132080 | 328 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 59234 | -1720 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -31306 | -291 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -11913 | -363 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 84260 | 11300 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 59573 | 0 | | | | | 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 14900 | -50 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Supply is sufficient and production profit is high, but downstream price - pressing is firm, resulting in high pressure on the spot market. It is expected that the inventories of both production and trading enterprises will increase slightly in the short term. - The resumption of production by previously - overhauled enterprises has driven the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises to increase month - on - month. However, entering the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises is slow, and most enterprises are in a state of flexible production control, which limits the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. With the continuous increase in finished product inventory, there may be individual enterprises for overhaul or production reduction in the future. - The br2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,600 - 11,000 yuan/ton in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 85 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract is 109,301 lots. - The 2 - 3 spread of synthetic rubber is 5 yuan/ton, and the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 4,560 tons. [2] 3.2. Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies in different regions range from 10,700 to 10,950 yuan/ton, with price changes of 50 - 100 yuan/ton. - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 130 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 35 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3. Upstream Situation - The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, naphtha, Northeast Asian ethylene, and butadiene have different degrees of change. - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 71.17%. The port inventory of butadiene has decreased by 5,200 tons. - The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 55.9%, with a decrease of 0.21 percentage points. [2] 3.4. Downstream Situation - The monthly production of full - steel tires is 590,000 pieces, and that of semi - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces. - The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 40.58 days, and those of semi - steel tires are 45.51 days. - As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 70.14%, a month - on - month increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 64.55%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points. [2] 3.5. Industry News - The resumption of production by previously - overhauled enterprises has driven the capacity utilization rate. - In November, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.75 million tons (- 5.44%) and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate was 68.13%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.27 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.53 percentage points. - As of December 11, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 million tons (- 1.18%). [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - After entering December, the reserve demand has slowed down, but there is still short - term replenishment demand. The demand for urea from the compound fertilizer industry is relatively strong, and the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers is expected to rise steadily. The continuous demand from the high - operating compound fertilizer industry, appropriate replenishment of reserve demand, and the fulfillment of some export orders have led to a continuous decline in urea factory inventories last week. In the short term, the inventories may continue to decline slightly. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1650 - 1720 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1630 yuan/ton, with a change of 1; the 1 - 5 spread is - 43 yuan/ton, with a change of - 6518. The main contract's open interest is 81993 lots, a decrease of 15767 lots, and the net position of the top 20 is - 14734. The exchange warehouse receipts are 11214, a decrease of 31 [2] 3.2现货市场 - In the spot market, the prices in Hebei, Shandong are unchanged at 1710 yuan/ton and 1700 yuan/ton respectively. The prices in Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui decreased by 20 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 10 yuan/ton to 1670 yuan/ton, 1680 yuan/ton, and 1670 yuan/ton respectively. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1. The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports are 347.5 dollars/ton and 387.5 dollars/ton respectively, with no change [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 12.3 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 123.42 million tons, a decrease of 5.63 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 81.85%, an increase of 0.02%. The daily urea output is 197900 tons, with no change. The urea export volume is 120 million tons, a decrease of 17. The monthly urea output is 6000330 tons, an increase of 129060 tons [2] 3.4下游情况 - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 40.62%, an increase of 0.09%. The melamine operating rate is 61.86%, an increase of 0.2%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 137 yuan/ton, an increase of 81 yuan/ton. The weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 13 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 438.25 million tons, an increase of 75.38 million tons. The weekly output of melamine is 32200 tons, an increase of 100 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of December 10, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 123.42 million tons, a decrease of 5.63 million tons from last week, a 4.36% decrease. As of December 11, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 12.3 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons, a 17.14% increase. As of December 11, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 138.54 million tons, an increase of 0.03 million tons, a 0.02% increase [2] 3.6提示关注 - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]

Market Data Summary - The closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract was 13,945 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the closing price of the main cotton yarn futures contract was 20,055 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was -148,481 lots, an increase of 4,769 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures was -606 lots, an increase of 137 lots [2]. - The main contract position of cotton was 713,587 lots, an increase of 366,462 lots; the main contract position of cotton yarn was 22,088 lots, an increase of 457 lots [2]. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 3,199, an increase of 33; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 70, unchanged [2]. - The China Cotton Price Index CCIndex:3128B was 15,130 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index FCIndexM:1% tariff was 12,846 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan [2]. - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2]. - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,700 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the industrial inventory of cotton nationwide was 850,000 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons [2]. - The import volume of cotton was 90,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the import volume of cotton yarn was 140,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2]. - The import cotton profit was 1,187 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan; the commercial inventory of cotton nationwide was 2.9306 million tons, an increase of 1.9089 million tons [2]. - The inventory days of yarn were 26.12 days, an increase of 1.27 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were 31.97 days, an increase of 0.85 days [2]. - The monthly output of cloth was 2.62 billion meters, a decrease of 0.18 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn was 2.001 million tons, a decrease of 0.073 million tons [2]. - The export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 110,034,804,300 US dollars, a decrease of 14,497,665,700 US dollars; the export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 112,584,189,200 US dollars, a decrease of 7,080,970,800 US dollars [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton was 2.09%, a decrease of 11.87%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton was 13.96%, an increase of 2.38% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 6.7%, an increase of 1.06%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 6.96%, an increase of 0.43% [2]. Industry News - As of December 14, 2025, the cumulative notarized inspection of cotton was 23,804,919 bales, totaling 5.373573 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.45%. The cumulative notarized inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton was 5.273822 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.89% [2]. - ICE cotton futures closed higher on Monday, supported by a weak US dollar and speculative buying. The March cotton futures contract rose 0.11 cents, or 0.17%, to settle at 63.94 cents per pound [2]. Core View - On the supply side, the ginning mill's lint processing volume continues to increase, and the commercial inventory shows a seasonal growth trend. In terms of imports, the import cotton ports basically have more outflows than inflows, but the inventory in major import cotton ports has increased for 10 consecutive weeks, reaching 390,300 tons as of December 11, a 5 - month high [2]. - On the demand side, the peak - season procurement of downstream textile enterprises has ended, but the orders for medium - and high - count yarns are stable. They mostly choose to replenish inventory as needed, and with the support of potential long - term benefits, the short - term cotton price center may continue to rise [2].