研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 11305 | -20 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 154627 | -1466 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 823 | 300 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -44014 | -1368 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 11 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - On December 15, the JM2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1061.0, up 3.16%. After continuous decline, coking coal had a technical rebound. The macro - situation emphasized the comprehensive improvement of "involution - style" competition. Fundamentally, Mongolian customs clearance vehicles remained at a high level at the end of the year, and the inventory at Ganqimaodu Port continued to accumulate. Technically, the daily K - line was below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, with a short - term weak and volatile trend [2]. - On December 15, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1503.5, up 0.30%, with a second - round price cut in the spot market. The macro - situation aimed to guide the standardized export of steel products. Fundamentally, iron - water production decreased, and coke inventory was moderately weak. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 44 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line was below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, with a short - term weak and volatile trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价 rose to 1061.00 yuan/ton, up 44.50; J主力合约收盘价 rose to 1503.50 yuan/ton, up 28.50 [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量 decreased to 738631.00 hands, down 20458.00; J期货合约持仓量 decreased to 44452.00 hands, down 2146.00 [2]. - The net position of the top 20 coking coal contracts increased to - 38651.00 hands, up 13096.00; the net position of the top 20 coke contracts increased to 95.00 hands, up 459.00 [2]. - The JM5 - 1 month contract spread rose to 95.50 yuan/ton, up 24.50; the J5 - 1 month contract spread rose to 167.50 yuan/ton, up 14.50 [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts increased to 300.00, up 200.00; coke warehouse receipts remained at 2070.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimaodu Mongolian No.5 raw coal remained at 930.00 yuan/ton, and the price of Tangshan Grade - I metallurgical coke remained at 1775.00 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Russian main coking coal forward spot remained at 161.50 US dollars/wet ton, and the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade - I metallurgical coke remained at 1570.00 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Australian imported main coking coal at Jingtang Port decreased to 1410.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00; the price of Tianjin Port Grade - I metallurgical coke remained at 1670.00 yuan/ton [2]. - The J主力合约基差 decreased to 271.50 yuan/ton, down 28.50; the JM主力合约基差 decreased to 549.00 yuan/ton, down 44.50 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants increased to 27.90 million tons, up 0.80; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants increased to 332.40 million tons, up 11.00 [2]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants increased to 0.38%, up 0.02; the monthly raw coal output increased to 42679.00 million tons, up 2004.00 [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite increased to 4405.30 million tons, up 231.30; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines decreased to 189.80, down 0.60 [2]. - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports increased to 481.60 million tons, up 11.00; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports increased to 248.60 million tons, up 2.80 [2]. - The weekly total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises increased to 1037.30 million tons, up 28.10; the weekly inventory of coke of independent coking enterprises increased to 87.32 million tons, up 10.88 [2]. - The weekly coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide decreased to 794.65 million tons, down 3.62; the weekly coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills increased to 635.28 million tons, up 10.03 [2]. - The weekly available days of coking coal of independent coking enterprises decreased to 12.82 days, down 0.06; the weekly available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills increased to 11.66 days, up 0.37 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of coking coal decreased to 1059.32 million tons, down 33.04; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke decreased to 0.00 million tons, down 73.00 [2]. - The monthly output of coking coal increased to 4231.51 million tons, up 255.59; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises decreased to 73.16%, down 0.68 [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants increased to 44.00 yuan/ton, up 14.00 [2]. - The monthly output of coke decreased to 4170.00 million tons, down 19.60 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide decreased to 78.61%, down 1.53; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased to 85.90%, down 1.16 [2]. - The monthly crude steel output decreased to 6987.00 million tons, down 212.70 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Work Conference emphasized measures to promote investment recovery, increase the scale of central budgetary investment, and comprehensively improve "involution - style" competition and develop new kinetic energy [2]. - The Ministry of Finance pointed out the need to maintain appropriate fiscal deficits, debt - scale, and expenditure, and make good use of government bond funds and issue ultra - long - term special treasury bonds [2]. - The housing - purchase interest - subsidy policy attracted attention, and some cities saw a more than 15% month - on - month increase in new - home transactions after the pilot [2].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.12」 铁矿石市场周报 港口库存继续增加 铁矿期价反弹承压 研究员：蔡跃辉 添加客服 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 目录 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 1. 宏观方面:海外，（1）美联储在为期两天的政策会议后宣布下调利率，但同时释放出谨慎信号，暗示2026年可能仅降息一次， 这与市场部分预期形成鲜明对比。国内，（1）中央经济工作会议：要加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度 继续实施适度宽松的货 币政策。推动投资止跌回稳，适当增加中央预算内投资规模。坚持创新驱动，深化拓展"人工智能 "。深入整治"内卷式" 竞争。 2. 供需方面:本期澳巴铁矿石发运量增加，到港量减少，国内港口库存则继续提升；钢厂高炉开工率、产能利用率和铁水产量继 续下调，铁水降至229万吨/周，相对低位。 3. 技术方面：铁矿I2605合约反弹受阻，日K线运行于多日均线下方，短线或继续测试750附近支撑；MACD指标显示DIFF与 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.12」 热轧卷板市场周报 库存去化缓慢 热卷期价震荡偏弱 添加客服 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1. 价格：截至12月12日收盘，热卷主力合约期价为3232（-88），杭州涟钢热卷现货价格为3290（-40）。（单 位：元/吨/周） 2. 产量：热卷产量下调。308.71（-5.6），（同比-11.41）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求下滑。本期表需311.97（-2.89），（同比-2.26）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库增、社库降。总库存397.09（-3.26），（同比+88.34）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率35.93%，环比上周减少0.43个百分点，同比去年减少12.12个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 行情展望 本周期货价格震荡下行 图1、热轧卷板主力合约收盘及持仓量 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12. 12」 铂钯金市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 ◆ 本周观点：广期所铂钯金主力合约本周震荡偏强运行，铂2606主力合约周涨2.67%报452.05元/克，钯 2606主力合约周涨2.58%报389.45元/克。在联储降息的利好消息驱动下，铂钯金价格突破前期震荡整 理区间并重拾上行动能。宏观方面，美联储如期展开25个基点的降息操作，鲍威尔强调当前通胀仍高 于目标，但非关税因素导致的核心通胀已明显回落。若无新增关税，商品通胀预计将在2026年第一季 度触顶。目前利率已处于中性区间上沿，政策正从限制性向中性过渡。铂金在美联储宽松预期、供需 结构性赤字格局延续、氢能经济中长期需求预期扩张的支撑下，中长期或继续支撑铂金价格。钯金在 汽车催化剂领域的过度集中化，以及新能源汽车的持续普及，使其需求端预期走弱，钯金市场正逐步 由供不应求转向供应过剩，供需格局预期较为宽松，但降息预期所带 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.12」 宏观市场周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、本周小结及下周 配置建议 2、重要新闻及事件 3、本周国内外经济 数据 4、下周重要经济指 标及经济大事 「本周小结及下周配置建议」 | 股票 | | 债券 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪深 300 -0.08% | 10 年国债到期收益率-0.06%/本周变动-0.11BP | | | | 沪深 300 股指期货 -0.09% | 主力 10 年期国债期货 +0.09% | | | | 本周点评：A股主要指数本周普遍上涨，除上证指数外 | 本周点评：12月中央经济工作会议定调积极，明年财政、 | | | | 均有不同幅度上涨。四期指表现分化，中小盘股强于大 | 货币政策将延续宽松基调，宽货币预期增强。但受公募 | | | | 盘蓝筹股。周四召开的中央经济工作会议延续了周一政 | 基金赎回新规、银行年末兑现浮盈需求等因素扰动，当 | | | | 治局会议的积极定 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.12」 股指期货周报 作者：廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息面概览 3、周度市场数据 4、行情展望与策略 「摘要」 • 周度观点：A股主要指数本周普遍上涨，除上证指数外均有不同幅度上涨。四期指表现分化， 中小盘股强于大盘蓝筹股。本周海内外消息不断，周一，中央政治局会议召开，会议对明年 财政、货币政策的定调维持宽松；周四，美联储于凌晨宣布降息25个基点重启短期国债购买， 流动性宽松环境下美元指数大幅回落；此外，周四召开的中央经济工作会议延续了周一政治 局会议的积极定调。年底重要政策会议为A股提供底部支撑。本周，市场成交活跃度较上周 明显回升。 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 「行情回顾」 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅% | 周五涨跌幅% | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF2512 | -0.01 | 0.66 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Macro environment is weak, and import volume is surging, causing the coking coal futures price to run weakly. The short - term market sentiment of coking coal is weakening, facing pressure from supply - demand and delivery. The decline trend of crude steel output will continue, and the downstream restocking willingness is insufficient. The coking coal futures 2605 contract should focus on the 1000 support, and the coke futures 2601 contract price should focus on the 1450 - 1500 support [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Week - to - Week Summary 1.1 Market Review - The daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines is 189.8 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons compared to the previous week. - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants is 27.9 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons compared to the previous week. - The total inventory of coking coal (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) is 1949.79 tons, an increase of 36.89 tons compared to the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 4.19%. - The warehouse receipt of Tangshan Mongolian 5 clean coal is reported at 1350, with the discounted futures price at 1130. - The average profit per ton of coke from 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 44 yuan/ton. - The profitability rate of steel mills is 35.93%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points compared to last week and a decrease of 12.12 percentage points compared to last year. - The daily average pig iron output is 229.2 tons, a decrease of 3.10 tons compared to last week and a decrease of 3.27 tons compared to last year [7]. 1.2 Market Outlook - Macro: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee mentioned in the meeting on December 8 that it is necessary to ensure the supply of important livelihood commodities at the end of the year and the beginning of the new year. The core policy directions for major coal - producing areas in the 14th Five - Year Plan are stable production and supply, capacity continuation, and enhanced clean and efficient utilization of coal. - Overseas: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points during the December 9 - 10 meeting, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%–3.75%. Most global investment banks predict that the Fed will cut interest rates by a total of 50 basis points in two cuts in 2026, mainly in the first half of the year. - Supply - demand: On the import side, the number of customs - cleared vehicles from Mongolia remains high at the end of the year, and the inventory at the Ganqimaodu Port has reached 310 tons. In the industrial aspect, the capacity utilization rate of mines has declined for 3 consecutive weeks, and the clean coal inventory of upstream and mid - stream mines and coal washing plants has increased for 6 consecutive weeks, with a neutral inventory level [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Market 2.1 Futures Market - As of December 12, the open interest of coking coal futures contracts is 75.9 million lots, a decrease of 9.4 million lots compared to the previous period. - As of December 12, the spread between coking coal contracts 5 - 1 is 71.0, a decrease of 13 points compared to the previous period. - As of December 12, the number of registered coking coal warehouse receipts is 100 lots, an increase of 100 lots compared to the previous period. - As of December 12, the ratio of coke to coking coal in January futures contracts is 1.56, an increase of 0.06 compared to the previous period [14][18]. 2.2 Spot Market - As of December 11, 2025, the ex - factory price of Mongolian coking coal (5, Ganqimaodu Port) is reported at 1180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. - As of December 12, the basis of coking coal is 315.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 56.5 points compared to the previous period [26]. 3. Industry Chain Situation 3.1 Production - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is 85.3%, a decrease of 0.3% compared to the previous period. The daily average output of raw coal is 189.8 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons compared to the previous period; the raw coal inventory is 472.4 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons compared to the previous period; the daily average output of clean coal is 75.0 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons compared to the previous period; the clean coal inventory is 255.3 tons, an increase of 8.3 tons compared to the previous period. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants is 38.2%, an increase of 1.7% compared to the previous period; the daily output of clean coal is 27.9 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons compared to the previous period; the clean coal inventory is 332.4 tons, an increase of 11.0 tons compared to the previous period. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 71.92%, a decrease of 0.72% compared to the previous period; the daily output of coke is 50.33 tons, a decrease of 0.5 tons compared to the previous period. - The daily average pig iron output is 229.2 tons, a decrease of 3.10 tons compared to last week and a decrease of 3.27 tons compared to last year [29][34]. 3.2 Inventory - As of December 12, 2025, the total coking coal inventory (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) is 1949.79 tons, an increase of 36.89 tons compared to the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 4.19%. - This week, the inventory of imported coking coal in 16 ports nationwide is 481.60 tons, an increase of 11.00 tons compared to the previous period. - This week, the coking coal inventory of 230 independent coking enterprises is 883.33 tons, an increase of 25.9 tons compared to the previous period; the available days of coking coal are 13.2 days, an increase of 0.52 days compared to the previous period. - This week, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills is 794.65 tons, a decrease of 3.62 tons compared to the previous period; the available days of coking coal are 12.82 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared to the previous period; the pulverized coal injection inventory is 422.86 tons, an increase of 4.15 tons compared to the previous period; the available days of pulverized coal injection are 12.55 days, an increase of 0.24 days compared to the previous period [38][42][46]. 3.3 Profitability - The average profit per ton of coke from 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 44 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke is 61 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke is 100 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is 5 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke is 89 yuan/ton [50]. 3.4 Policy and Output - The National Development and Reform Commission aims to continuously enhance the coal production and supply capacity and strengthen the coal's role as a guarantee. In 2025, from January to October, the cumulative output of raw coal in China is 397319.4 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. In October 2025, China's raw coal output is 40675.0 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. - In September 2025, China's coking coal output is 3975.92 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.55% [52][54]. 3.5 Import - From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume of coking coal is 9416.06 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.78%. In October 2025, the total import volume of coking coal is 1059.32 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.02% and a year - on - year increase of 6.39%. The import reduction mainly comes from Mongolia due to the increase of 7 days of legal holidays in October, resulting in a decline in the overall number of customs - cleared vehicles [59].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - This week, the price of Apple Futures Contract 2605 declined with a weekly drop of about 1.24%. The出库 speed of late Fuji apples in the producing areas was slow, with merchants sourcing goods as needed. The price in Gansu producing area decreased due to quality deterioration, while prices in other producing areas remained stable. As of December 11, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas across the country was 7.5855 billion tons, a decrease of 49,700 tons from last week. The market arrival volume in the sales areas decreased, and the sales were not fast year - on - year due to high prices. Oranges and other citrus fruits impacted apple sales. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [6][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Highlights - Futures: The price of Apple Futures Contract 2605 fell, with a weekly decline of about 1.24% [6][11] - Market Outlook: Slow出库 in producing areas, stable prices in most regions, decreased inventory, slow market arrival and sales in sales areas, and impact from citrus fruits. Short - term wait - and - see [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - Price: The price of Apple Futures Contract 2605 dropped by about 1.24% this week [11] - Position and Warehouse Receipt: As of this week, the net position of the top twenty in apple futures was 7,427 lots, and the number of apple futures warehouse receipts was 0 [17] - **Spot Market** - As of December 12, 2025, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade farmer - sourced bagged red Fuji apples in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 4.0 yuan per jin; the price of 75 and above bagged Fuji apples in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.60 yuan per jin [20] 3.3 Industry Situation and Options - **Supply Side** - As of December 11, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas across the country was 7.5855 billion tons, a decrease of 49,700 tons from last week. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 53.73%, a decrease of 0.24% from last week, and that in Shaanxi was 57.86%, a decrease of 0.35% from last week [27] - **Demand Side** - **Wholesale Market Arrival** - As of December 11, the average daily early - morning vehicle arrival at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased [32] - The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was suspended (represented by 0) [32] - **Wholesale Price** - As of December 5, 2025, the average wholesale price of all apple varieties was 9.37 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 yuan per kilogram; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.07 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan per kilogram [36] - **Substitute Products** - As of December 5, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of 5 kinds of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, grapes, pears, and watermelons) was 7.31 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.10 yuan per kilogram [40] - **Export** - In October 2025, China's apple export volume was 80,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.29%, and the export amount was 779.12 million US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 12.62% [44] - **Options Market** - Information on the implied volatility of at - the - money options for apples this week is presented in the form of a chart, but no specific data is given [45] 3.4 Futures - Stock Correlation - The report presents the price - earnings ratio chart of Honghui Fruit & Vegetable Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis or data description is provided [47]

碳酸锂市场周报 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.12」 需求韧性库存去化，锂价或将有所支撑 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：碳酸锂主力周线震荡偏强，涨跌幅为+6.03%，振幅11.39%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价97720元/吨。 后市展望：宏观方面，中央经济工作会议在北京举行，定调明年经济工作，强调要继续实施更加积极的财政政策，保 持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，重视解决地方财政困难。要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，灵活高效运 用降准降息等多种政策工具。基本面原料端，由于碳酸锂盘面走强，拉动矿价上行，海外矿山挺价持续，冶炼厂亦有 一定采购需求，故矿价支撑较稳固。供给端，由于锂价较优，冶炼厂利润情况向好，生产积极性较高，加之新增产线 的逐渐投产，锂盐厂生产保持稳定增长。需求端，下游电芯厂订单排产仍处高位，虽传统消费旺季已过，但动力以及 储能行业的供需两旺，令碳酸锂需求保持较强韧性，产业链持续去库存， ...