关 注 我 们 获 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12. 12」 贵金属市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 ◆ 本周观点：本周贵金属市场整体偏强运行。联储降息如期兑现，在全球白银实物库存持续紧缺引起的挤仓以及美 联储降息预期提振下，银价续创历史新高，金价走势较为震荡，金银比继续向历史均值收敛。鲍威尔表示货币政 策没有预设路径，未来将依赖数据逐次会议决策。当前通胀仍高于目标，但非关税因素导致的核心通胀已明显回 落。若无新增关税，商品通胀预计将在2026年第一季度触顶。目前利率已处于中性区间上沿，政策正从限制性向 中性过渡。"美联储传声筒"尼克表示，尽管美联储已连续三次会议决定降息，但其内部对于应更担忧通胀还是 就业市场，存在"不同寻常的分歧"。这种分歧导致官员们暗示，继续降息的意愿目前并不高。整体而言，本次 美联储的降息操作略显鹰派，2026年FOMC或仅展开一次25基点的降息操作，鲍威尔反复强 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures declined, with a weekly drop of about 4.24%. As the new jujube harvest progresses, the production in each producing area is becoming clearer. The overall jujube supply is relatively loose, and downstream consumption lacks highlights. With about two months until the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the consumption situation during the peak season [9][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - Future trading tips include monitoring spot prices and the consumer end - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures declined this week, with a weekly drop of about 4.24% - As of December 11, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of jujubes this week was 15,790 tons, an increase of 1,880 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 13.52% and a year - on - year increase of 22.01% - In the 2025 production season, the acquisition structure of gray jujubes is decentralized. The overall jujube supply is relatively loose, and downstream consumption lacks highlights [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price trends**: The price of the Zhengzhou jujube 2605 contract declined this week, with a weekly drop of about 4.24% [13] - **Top 20 positions**: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in jujube futures was - 10,354 lots [14] - **Warehouse receipts**: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou jujube warehouse receipts was 883 [19] - **Futures spreads**: As of this week, the spread between the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jujube futures 2605 contract and the 2609 contract was - 320 yuan/ton [22] - **Basis**: As of this week, the basis between the spot price of Hebei gray jujubes and the main contract of jujube futures was 855 yuan/ton [25] - **Purchase prices in main producing areas**: As of December 12, 2025, the purchase price of jujube bulk goods in Aksu was 5.15 yuan/kg, in Alar was 5.65 yuan/kg, and in Kashgar was 6.5 yuan/kg [28] - **First - grade jujube spot prices**: As of December 12, 2025, the wholesale price of first - grade gray jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei was 4.4 yuan/jin, and in Henan was 4.45 yuan/jin [32] - **Special - grade jujube spot prices**: As of December 12, 2025, the spot price of special - grade gray jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei was 9.78 yuan/kg, and the wholesale price in Henan was 9.9 yuan/kg [36] 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply side - Inventory situation**: As of December 11, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of jujubes this week was 15,790 tons, an increase of 1,880 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 13.52% and a year - on - year increase of 22.01% - **Supply side - Possible decline in production**: The jujube production in the 2025/26 production season is expected to decline - **Demand side - Monthly jujube export volume**: In October 2025, China's jujube export volume was 2,205,220 kg, with an export value of 35,238,139 yuan and an export average price of 15,979.42 yuan/ton. The export volume decreased by 3.44% month - on - month and 33.29% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export was 25,753,622 kg, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.18% - **Demand side - Inactive trading of BOCE Xinjiang Jujube Good Brand**: This week, the order volume of BOCE Xinjiang Jujube Good Brand had a small amount of transactions [40][44][48][53] 3.4 Options Market and Futures - Stock Linkage - **Options market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options of jujubes this week was presented in a chart, but no specific data was given - **Stock market - Hao Xiang Ni**: A chart of the price - earnings ratio of Hao Xiang Ni (002582) was presented, but no specific analysis was provided [54][56]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro: The Politburo meeting on December 8 emphasized ensuring the supply of important livelihood commodities, and coal policies focus on stable production, supply, and clean utilization [7]. - Overseas: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 9 - 10, and most investment banks predict a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut in 2026, mainly in the first half [7]. - Supply - demand: Market transactions are mainly for terminal rigid - demand restocking, with neutral inventory. Profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia are in the red, and the December HeSteel 75B ferrosilicon tender price dropped by 80 yuan/ton [7]. - Technical: The weekly K - line of ferrosilicon's main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [7]. - Strategy: Supply is expected to decline in December due to losses and no new capacity. Demand will continue to fall as the country maintains the policy of reducing crude steel output. The ferrosilicon 2603 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Macro: The Politburo meeting focused on livelihood and coal policies, and the Fed cut interest rates [7]. - Supply - demand: Market transactions are for rigid - demand restocking, with neutral inventory. Inner Mongolia's spot profit is - 440 yuan/ton, and Ningxia's is - 565 yuan/ton. The December HeSteel 75B ferrosilicon tender price dropped by 80 yuan/ton [7]. - Technical: The weekly K - line of the main contract is bearish [7]. - Strategy: Supply will decline in December, demand will continue to fall, and the 2603 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: As of December 12, the ferrosilicon futures contract open interest was 439,900 lots, a decrease of 21,400 lots. The 5 - 1 contract spread was 42, an increase of 8. The warehouse receipt quantity was 13,082, a decrease of 506. The Ningxia ferrosilicon price was 5200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [13][19] - Spot Market: As of December 12, the ferrosilicon basis was - 350, a decrease of 26 points [25] 3.3 Industry Chain - Supply - demand: The national 136 - enterprise sample's capacity utilization rate was 32.44%, a decrease of 1.36%. The daily output was 15,180 tons, a decrease of 2.32%. The five - major steel grades' ferrosilicon weekly demand was 18,048 tons, a decrease of 3.83%. The national ferrosilicon weekly supply was 106,300 tons [29] - Inventory: The national 60 - enterprise sample's inventory was 77,840 tons, an increase of 7.16%. Inner Mongolia's inventory increased by 6000 tons, while Ningxia's decreased by 200 tons [34] - Upstream: As of December 8, the Ningxia electricity price increased by 2.53%, and the Inner Mongolia electricity price remained unchanged. As of December 11, the domestic market price of semi - coke remained unchanged [38] - Profit: As of December 12, the Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon production cost was 5564 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.20%, and the profit was - 444 yuan/ton, a decrease of 62.04%. Ningxia's production cost was 5665 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the profit was - 565 yuan/ton, unchanged [42] - Downstream: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 31,000 tons week - on - week and 32,700 tons year - on - year. From January to October, China's ferrosilicon exports decreased by 8.85% year - on - year [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Rapeseed Oil - This week, rapeseed oil futures first declined and then rose. The closing price of the 05 contract was 9,347 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton from the previous week. The Canadian rapeseed production increase and export decline restrain the market price, but the change in German regulations boosts rapeseed oil biodiesel consumption. The increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory and weak exports drag down palm oil prices. In China, the supply of imported rapeseed is structurally tightened, and rapeseed oil will continue to be in a destocking mode. Customs inspections on non - GMO rapeseed oil imports support its price. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and abundant soybean oil supply limit rapeseed oil demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [8]. 2.2 Rapeseed Meal - This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated narrowly and closed lower. The closing price of the 05 contract was 2,347 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous week. The ample supply of US soybeans during the export season and competition from Brazilian soybeans, along with the uncertainty of China's soybean purchases, cause US soybean prices to decline. In China, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal is restricted, but the arrival of Australian rapeseed, weakening aquaculture demand due to lower temperatures, and the substitution advantage of soybean meal lead to a situation of weak supply and demand. The market is affected by the decline in US soybean prices, and attention should be paid to China's soybean purchase situation [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary 3.1.1 Rapeseed Oil - **Market Review**: The 05 contract of rapeseed oil futures closed at 9,347 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous week [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Canadian rapeseed production increased by 13.3% to 21.8 million tons. German policy changes boost biodiesel consumption. Malaysian palm oil inventory increased by 13.04% to 2.84 million tons. In China, supply is tightened, and customs inspections support prices, but the arrival of Australian rapeseed and abundant soybean oil limit demand. Short - term trend is volatile [8]. 3.1.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Market Review**: The 05 contract of rapeseed meal futures closed at 2,347 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous week [10]. - **Market Outlook**: Ample US soybean supply, competition from Brazilian soybeans, and uncertainty of China's purchases affect prices. In China, supply is restricted, but demand is weak due to the arrival of Australian rapeseed, lower temperatures, and soybean meal substitution. The market is affected by US soybean price decline [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Rapeseed Oil**: This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed lower. The total open interest was 171,027 lots, an increase of 40,771 lots from last week. The net short position of the top 20 futures holders decreased slightly to - 2,529 from - 6,768 last week. The registered warehouse receipts were 3,476 lots [15][21][25]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated narrowly and closed lower. The total open interest was 581,668 lots, an increase of 86,710 lots from last week. The net short position of the top 20 futures holders increased significantly to - 70,504 from - 56,560 last week. The registered warehouse receipts were 0 lots [15][21][26]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9,890 yuan/ton, with little change from last week. The basis between the active contract futures price and the Jiangsu spot price was + 543 yuan/ton [35]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,410 yuan/ton, a slight increase from last week. The basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active contract futures price was + 63 yuan/ton [41]. 3.2.3 Other Market Indicators - **Futures Month - to - Month Spread**: The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was + 79 yuan/ton, at a medium level in recent years. The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal was - 52 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in recent years [47]. - **Futures - to - Spot Ratio**: The ratio of the 05 contract of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal was 3.982; the average spot price ratio was 4.10 [50]. - **Price Spread between Oils and Meals**: The 05 contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,353 yuan/ton, with narrow fluctuations this week. The 05 contract spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 795 yuan/ton, with a narrow and expanding spread this week. The 05 contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 423 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 650 yuan/ton as of Thursday [59][65]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Rapeseed - **Supply**: As of the end of the 49th week of 2025, the domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 65,000 tons. The estimated arrival volumes in December, January, and February 2025 were 150,000 tons, 450,000 tons, and 420,000 tons respectively. The import volume in October 2025 was 0 tons. The spot crushing profit was + 1,278 yuan/ton as of December 11. The coastal oil mill crushing volume was 0.0 tons in the 49th week of 2025, with an operating rate of 0.0% [71][75][79][83]. 3.3.2 Rapeseed Oil - **Supply**: As of the end of the 49th week of 2025, the domestic imported and crushed rapeseed oil inventory was 406,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from last week, a 4.47% month - on - month decline. The import volume in October 2025 was 140,700 tons, a 10.11% year - on - year decrease and a 1.59 - ton month - on - month decrease [87]. - **Demand**: As of October 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 427,600 tons, and the monthly catering revenue was 519.9 billion yuan. As of the end of the 49th week of 2025, the contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 50,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from last week, a 0.81% month - on - month increase [91][95]. 3.3.3 Rapeseed Meal - **Supply**: As of the end of the 49th week of 2025, the domestic imported and crushed rapeseed meal inventory was 0.0 tons, unchanged from last week. The import volume in October 2025 was 220,600 tons, a 27.99% year - on - year decrease and a 63,000 - ton month - on - month increase [99][103]. - **Demand**: As of October 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2,957,000 tons [107]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - As of December 12, this week, rapeseed meal fluctuated and closed lower. The implied volatility of the corresponding options was 17.2%, a decrease of 0.08% from 17.28% last week, at a medium level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [111].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.12」 焦炭市场周报 二轮提降&原料下行，焦炭跟随成本下行 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 合约持仓量+1527手，焦炭月差+4个点 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 「 周度要点小结2」 行情回顾及展望 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面，中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，会议提到要做好岁末年初重要民生商品保供工作，关心困难群众生产生活，坚 决防范遏制重特大事故发生。根据几大煤炭主产区十五五规划建议，稳产稳供，做好产能接续，加强煤炭清洁高效利用几个特 点是政策核心方向。 2. 海外方面，美联储12月9日和10日举行议息会议，会议降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%–3.75%。全球大 多数投资银行预测，美联储将在2026年的两次降息中累计降息50个基点，且降息时间预计主要在上半年完成。 3. 供需方面，需求端，本期铁水产量229.20，-3.10万吨，焦炭库存中性偏弱。利润方面，本期全国30家独立焦化 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Christmas stocking demand is conducive to the recovery of futures prices. Most shipping companies slightly raised their freight rates in mid - and late December, which also supported the futures prices. However, most of them are still waiting and seeing for the January quotes, and the subsequent focus should be on Maersk's price increase announcement. [8][9][38][39] - Although the trade relations are gradually improving, China's exports to the US are still under pressure due to the nearly 40% tax rate, which has a certain negative impact on the pre - Christmas demand. The boosting effect of the traditional peak season may be weaker than expected. [9][39] - The current freight rate market is greatly affected by news, and the futures prices are expected to fluctuate more violently. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner. [9][39] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review - The futures prices of the Container Freight Index (European Line) fluctuated slightly this week. The main contract EC2602 closed up 3.95%, while the far - month contracts had gains and losses ranging from - 1% to 4%, with relatively small fluctuations. [8][12][38] - The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1509.10, up 25.45 points from last week, a month - on - month increase of 1.7%. [8][12][38] - In November, China's manufacturing PMI data showed a slight recovery, generally in line with the seasonal pattern. The new export order index rebounded to 47.9, indicating that the terminal transportation demand recovered before Christmas. [8][38] - The trading volume and open interest of the EC2512 contract increased this week, and the trading sentiment warmed up. [18] 3.2. News Review and Analysis - Fed Chairman Powell said that monetary policy has no preset path and will be decided based on data in each meeting. Inflation is still high, but non - tariff - driven core inflation has improved significantly. If there are no new tariffs, commodity inflation is expected to peak in the first quarter of 2026. Interest rates are at the upper end of the neutral range, and the policy is transitioning from restrictive to neutral. US President Trump criticized Powell for the small rate cut. [23] - According to a report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, global trade volume will increase by about 7% (an increase of $2.2 trillion) in 2025, reaching a record of $35 trillion, driven by East Asia, Africa and South - South trade. [23] - Ukrainian President Zelensky discussed a new peace plan draft with leaders of the UK, France and Germany. They reached a consensus on security guarantees for Ukraine, post - war reconstruction and next steps, and also discussed defense support for Ukraine. [23] - Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao said that during the 15th Five - Year Plan period, China will implement a special consumption - boosting action, expand and upgrade commodity consumption, and increase inclusive policies for consumers. It will also expand independent opening - up, promote innovative development of trade and expand two - way investment cooperation. [23] - The EU is considering postponing the plan to ban the sale of new fuel - powered vehicles by five years to 2040, and the new plan may allow the sale of plug - in hybrid and extended - range electric vehicles for up to five years after 2035. [23] 3.3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and price difference of the Container Freight Index (European Line) futures contracts shrank this week. [26] - The global container shipping capacity continued to grow, while the shipping capacity on the European line decreased slightly. The BDI and BPI rebounded this week, and the freight rates were slightly raised. [31] - The charter price of Panamax ships continued to rise this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar converged. [34] 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The Christmas stocking demand and the slight increase of freight rates by most shipping companies in mid - and late December support the futures prices, but the January quotes are still uncertain, and Maersk's price increase announcement should be closely watched. [9][38][39] - China's exports to the US are still under pressure due to high tax rates, which weakens the pre - Christmas demand and the boosting effect of the peak season. [9][39] - The futures prices are expected to fluctuate more violently, and investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to risk control and track relevant data. [9][39]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.12」 螺纹钢市场周报 表需继续回落 螺纹期价弱势运行 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格及价差：截至12月12日收盘，螺纹主力合约期价3060（-97），杭州螺纹中天现货价格3280（-50）。（单 位：元/吨/周） 2. 产量：螺纹产量继续下调。178.78（-10.53），同比（-39.29）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求回落。本期表需203.09（-13.89），（同比-34.57）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库和社库继续下滑。螺纹钢总库存479.5（-24.31），（同比+56.53）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率35.93%，环比上周减少0.43个百分点，同比去年减少12.12个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）美联储在为期两天的政策会议 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.12」 鸡蛋市场周报 市场情绪仍然悲观 鸡蛋近月再度下探 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 Ø 鸡蛋： Ø 行情回顾：本周鸡蛋震荡收跌，2603合约收盘价为3024元/500千克，较前一周-56元/500千克。 Ø 行情展望：养殖端持续亏损使得补栏积极性下滑且老鸡淘汰量有所增加，蛋鸡存栏小幅回落，市 场氛围略有好转。且现货价格持续偏低，养殖端仍处于亏损状态，市场补栏积极性欠佳，利好远 期价格。不过，当前蛋鸡在产存栏仍然处于高位，老鸡尚未出现超淘，高产能仍然牵制近月市场 价格表现。总体而言，市场博弈于弱现实与强预期之间。短期近月合约或处于宽幅震荡状态,可轻 仓试多远月。 「 期现市场情况」 期价走势及前二十名持仓 图1、大商所鸡蛋主力合约期货价格走势 来源：大商所 wind 来源：大商所 瑞达期货研究院 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the silicon-manganese market is currently experiencing bottom - level oscillations supported by costs, with weak supply - demand dynamics and high inventory. The manganese silicon主力2603 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5550 - 5900. The overall production will remain stable, while the demand for crude steel will continue to decline, and the alloy is likely to remain in a loss - making state [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: In 2026, the national new - built commercial housing sales area is expected to decline by 6.2% year - on - year, the new - start area to decline by 8.6%, and real estate investment to decline by 11%. The core policy directions for major coal - producing areas include stable production and supply, capacity continuation, and enhanced clean and efficient coal utilization [7]. - **Overseas Aspect**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points during the December 9 - 10 meeting, setting the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75%. Most global investment banks predict a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut in 2026, mainly in the first half of the year [7]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: Inventory has rebounded rapidly, production has slightly declined from a high level, and inventory has increased for 11 consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has increased by 13000 tons, and the demand for hot metal has seasonally declined. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 320 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 420 yuan/ton. HeSteel Group's first - round inquiry price for silicon - manganese in December is 5700 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In December, the production in southern regions may further decline, while northern regions remain relatively stable. Inner Mongolia has new production capacity and production conversion, and overall production will be stable. Ningxia may have maintenance in December due to cost and hedging pressure, but the reduction in production is expected to be small. The national crude - steel production reduction policy will continue in 2025, and the alloy is likely to remain in a loss - making state [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of December 12, the silicon - manganese futures contract open interest was 617000 lots, a decrease of 15700 lots from the previous period. The 5 - 1 contract spread was 54, an increase of 4 points. The manganese - silicon warehouse receipts increased by 4025 to 25232, and the spread between manganese - silicon and silicon - iron active contracts decreased by 24 points to 260 [13][17]. - **Spot Market**: As of December 12, the silicon - manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous period. The basis was - 238 yuan/ton, a decrease of 76 points [25]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Industry**: The national capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 36.85%, an increase of 0.14%. The daily average production was 27035 tons, an increase of 185 tons. The weekly demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel types decreased by 3.26% to 112787 tons, and the weekly supply increased by 0.69% to 189245 tons. The inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises increased by 5500 tons to 381000 tons [28][33]. - **Upstream**: As of December 10, the price of South African and Australian manganese ore remained unchanged. As of December 8, the electricity price in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged, while that in Ningxia increased by 2.53%. As of December 5, the total manganese - ore inventory was 4.513 million tons, an increase of 2.97%. The arrival of South African and Gabonese manganese ore increased, while that of Australian and Ghanaian manganese ore decreased. The silicon - manganese spot production cost in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia increased, and the spot profit in the northern region decreased [38][44][50]. - **Downstream**: The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills was 2.292 million tons, a decrease of 31000 tons from the previous week and 32700 tons from the same period last year. HeSteel Group's first - round inquiry price for silicon - manganese in December was 5700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton from November [54].

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - **Corn**: This week, corn futures prices dropped from their high levels. The international corn market is under pressure due to the harvest and export season in the US and relatively loose supply - demand globally. However, the reduction of the US corn's ending - stock forecast by USDA supports the price. In the domestic market, the increased purchase by reserve warehouses in the Northeast provides support, but high prices limit procurement and rumors lead to increased supply, causing price adjustments. In the North China and Huang - Huai regions, prices are fluctuating slightly. The short - term price is volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Corn Starch**: Dalian corn starch futures closed lower in a volatile manner. With sufficient raw material supply and increasing industry operating rates, supply pressure grows. But high demand from downstream industries and reduced inventory support the market. Affected by the decline in corn prices, starch prices also fell, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - long Key Points Summary - **Corn**: The closing price of the main 2601 contract was 2233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton from last week. The international market has supply pressure, while the domestic Northeast's reserve purchase supports the price. High prices limit procurement, and rumors increase supply, leading to a high - level price adjustment [6]. - **Corn Starch**: The closing price of the main 2603 contract was 2521 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton from last week. Abundant raw materials and increased operating rates pressure supply, but strong downstream demand and reduced inventory are positive factors [8]. 2. Futures and Cash Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes**: This week, the 3 - month contracts of both corn and corn starch futures dropped from high levels. The total position of the corn 3 - month contract was 937,207 lots, an increase of 127,367 lots from last week, and that of the corn starch 3 - month contract was 109,010 lots, an increase of 12,178 lots [14]. - **Top 20 Net Position Changes**: The net short position of the top 20 in corn futures decreased from - 188,896 last week to - 111,571 this week, and that of corn starch futures decreased from - 44,791 to - 37,848 [20]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 57,355 lots, and those of corn starch were 2,500 lots [26]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: As of December 11, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2356.27 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 3 - month contract and the spot average price was + 123 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2700 yuan/ton and in Shandong was 2800 yuan/ton, and the basis between the 3 - month contract and the Jilin Changchun spot was 179 yuan/ton [31][35]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 3 - 5 spread of corn was - 33 yuan/ton, and that of starch was - 56 yuan/ton, both at medium levels compared to the same period [41]. - **Futures Spread between Corn and Starch**: The spread between the 3 - month starch and corn contracts was 288 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 466 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton from last week [50]. - **Substitute Spread**: As of December 11, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2515.72 yuan/ton, and that of corn was 2356.27 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 159.45 yuan/ton. In the 50th week of 2025, the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch narrowed, with an average spread of 725 yuan/ton, a reduction of 36 yuan/ton from last week [55]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Corn - Supply**: As of December 5, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 6.6 tons, a decrease of 11.5 tons from last week, and the foreign trade inventory was 24.9 tons, a decrease of 8.7 tons. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 153.1 tons, an increase of 16.2 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 80.8 tons, an increase of 27.3 tons. The total sales progress of domestic corn was 40% as of December 11, an increase of 4% from last week. In October 2025, China's corn imports were 35.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.06%. As of December 11, the average inventory of feed enterprises was 29.53 days, an increase of 0.86 days from last week [45][57][61][65]. - **Corn - Demand**: At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. As of the end of October, the inventory of breeding sows was 30.9 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12%. As of December 5, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig breeding profit was - 167.69 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets was - 259.39 yuan/head. As of December 11, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 54 yuan/ton, and the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 491 yuan/ton, - 726 yuan/ton in Jilin, and - 286 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [69][73][78]. - **Corn Starch - Supply**: As of December 10, 2025, the corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 294 tons, an increase of 6.75%. From December 4 to 10, the national corn processing volume was 63.57 tons, an increase of 0.89 tons from last week, and the corn starch output was 33.11 tons, an increase of 0.62 tons. The operating rate was 62.84%, an increase of 1.18%. The starch inventory was 104.9 tons, a decrease of 0.5 tons from last week [82][86]. 4. Option Market Analysis - As of December 12, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the corn main 2603 contract was 10.56%, a decrease of 2.23% from last week's 12.79%, and it was at a medium level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [89].