免责声明 锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/12/15 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,758.00 | +28.00↑ SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,518.00 | +48.00↑ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 591,272.00 | -26008.00↓ SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 419,373.00 | -17684.00↓ | | | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -31,508.00 | -18637.00↓ 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -34,128.00 | -3592.00↓ | | | SM5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 56.00 | +2.00↑ SF5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 68.00 | +26.00↑ | | | SM 仓单（日，张） 内蒙古锰硅 FeMn68Si18 （日，元/吨） | 25,232.00 5,530.00 | 0.00 S ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - As the new jujube harvest progresses, the production in each producing area is becoming clearer. As of December 11, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of jujubes this week was 15,790 tons, an increase of 1,880 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 13.52% and a year - on - year increase of 22.01%. The inventory of sample points increased month - on - month. In the 2025 production season, the acquisition structure of grey jujubes was scattered, large enterprises had a limited acquisition cycle, some large enterprises did not conduct harvesting, and most of the goods were concentrated in the hands of small and medium - sized merchants in the inland. With the carry - over inventory of old jujubes and the new supply, the overall jujube supply was relatively loose, while downstream consumption lacked highlights. There was little obvious increase in the deep - processing and terminal markets. With two months until the Spring Festival, the peak - season consumption situation should be monitored [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for jujubes was 9,025 yuan/ton, the main contract position was 119,469 lots (a decrease of 5,836 lots), the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 8,903 lots, the number of warehouse receipts was 883 (unchanged), and the total valid warehouse receipt forecast for jujubes was 769 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of jujube varieties in different regions remained stable. For example, the unified price of Kashgar jujubes was 6.5 yuan/kg, the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 4.4 yuan/jin, and the price of special - grade jujubes in Guangdong was 10.6 yuan/kg [2]. 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual jujube production was 318.7 million tons, and the planting area was 199.3 million hectares (a decrease of 4.1 million hectares) [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national jujube inventory was 15,790 tons (a weekly increase of 1,880 tons), the monthly jujube export volume was 2,205,220 kg (a decrease of 78,451 kg), and the cumulative monthly jujube export volume was 25,753,622 kg [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative sales volume of jujubes of Hao Xiang Ni was 36,480.43 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year production growth rate was 1.47% (a decrease of 34.59 percentage points) [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The acquisition of grey jujubes in Xinjiang producing areas was nearing completion. There was little remaining and tradable supply in each producing area. The mainstream prices of general - grade jujubes in different areas were as follows: 5.00 - 5.30 yuan/kg in Aksu, 5.50 - 5.80 yuan/kg in Alar, 6.20 - 6.80 yuan/kg in Kashgar, and 6.00 - 6.30 yuan/kg in Makit. The raw material acquisition in the producing areas was priced according to quality, adhering to the principle of high - quality products at high prices [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On December 15, 2025, the Treasury bond spot yields on the ultra - long end weakened significantly, with the 2 - 7Y maturity yields rising about 0.5 - 1.5bp, and the 10Y and 30Y yields rising about 1.55bp and 3.05bp to 1.86% and 2.28% respectively. Treasury bond futures weakened collectively, with the TS, T, TF, and TL main contracts falling 0.01%, 0.03%, 0.12%, and 0.99% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 oscillated around 1.44%. [4] - Domestically, in November, industrial added - value increased year - on - year, social retail sales slowed marginally, fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate remained stable. November's financial data showed structural differentiation. With the boost of direct financing, the increase in aggregate social financing exceeded expectations; credit continued to weaken, with household loans being the main drag, and the medium - and long - term investment demand of enterprises remained weak. Affected by the base effect, the growth rates of M1 and M2 declined, and the M1 - M2 gap widened again. In November, CPI continued to improve, rising 0.7% year - on - year; the marginal slowdown of the anti - involution effect led to a slight expansion of the year - on - year decline in PPI. [4] - In terms of news, the December Politburo meeting pointed out that next year's economic work should continue to implement a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, give play to the integrated effect of existing and incremental policies, and increase counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected in December, the third rate cut this year. The Fed said that the current unemployment rate has risen slightly, but inflation remains high, and the future interest - rate path will be decided based on economic data. [4] - Overall, the December Central Economic Work Conference and Politburo meeting set a positive tone. Next year's fiscal and monetary policies will continue the loose tone, and the expectation of loose money has increased. However, the uncertainty of the market about the implementation rhythm of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts has increased. In the short term, there is a lack of new information guidance, and the sentiment in the bond market remains weak, and it may continue the adjustment trend in the short term. [4] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 107.870 (-0.12%), 105.785 (-0.03%), 102.454 (-0.01%), and 111.530 (-0.99%) respectively. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 101,896 (up 4,380), 78,602 (up 3,843), 36,811 (up 3,534), and 160,418 (down 8,058) respectively. [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Multiple futures spreads changed, such as the TL2603 - 2606 spread decreased by 0.03 to -0.22, and the T03 - TL03 spread increased by 0.83 to -3.66. [2] - **Futures Positions**: The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL all increased, with changes of 851, 2,976, 2,279, and 3,039 respectively. The net short positions of T and TL decreased by 2,271 and 704 respectively, while those of TF and TS increased by 235 and 503 respectively. [2] 2. CTD Bonds - The net prices of several CTD bonds changed, with most showing a downward trend, such as 250018.IB (6y) decreasing by 0.0792 to 100.2498, except for 230002.IB (2y) which increased by 0.0104 to 102.6436. [2] 3. Active Treasury Bonds - The yields of active Treasury bonds with different maturities increased, with 1y remaining unchanged at 1.3875%, 3y increasing by 0.50bp to 1.4150%, 5y increasing by 2.00bp to 1.6150%, 7y increasing by 2.75bp to 1.7275%, and 10y increasing by 2.75bp to 1.8425%. [2] 4. Short - term Interest Rates - The silver - pledged overnight rate decreased by 1.44bp to 1.2856%, the Shibor overnight rate decreased by 0.50bp to 1.2740%, the silver - pledged 7 - day rate increased by 5.00bp to 1.5100%, the Shibor 7 - day rate decreased by 1.90bp to 1.4320%, the silver - pledged 14 - day rate decreased by 3.00bp to 1.4900%, and the Shibor 14 - day rate increased by 0.20bp to 1.5110%. [2] 5. LPR Rates - The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively. [2] 6. Open - market Operations - The issuance scale of open - market operations was 130.9 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 122.3 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days. Additionally, on December 15, the central bank carried out a 600 - billion - yuan 6 - month (182 - day) outright reverse - repurchase operation. [2][3] 7. Macroeconomic Data - In November, China's social消费品 retail总额 was 438.98 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. From January to November, it was 4,560.67 billion yuan, a 4.0% increase. Fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to November decreased by 2.6% year - on - year. The added - value of industrial enterprises above designated size in November increased by 4.8% year - on - year. The national urban survey unemployment rate in November was 5.1%, unchanged from the previous month. [2] - In November, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month overall, and the year - on - year decline widened. [3]

贵金属期货日报 2025/12/15 | | 项目类别 数据指标 最新 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 970.660 12.5↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | | 14793 | | -99.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) 203,038.00 -836.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | | 7,206.00 | | -196.00↓ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 439,719.00 +147983.00↑ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | | 2,357,087.00 | | +630503.00↑ | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) 91302 0↑ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | | 820,921 | | 36893↑ | | 现货市场 | 上金所黄金现货价 0.00 0.00↑ 华通一号白银现货价 | | 14,638.00 | | -83.00↓ | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) -970.66 -96 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 IF主力合约（2512） | 4545.6 | -29.2↓ IF次主力合约（2603） | 4501.0 | 环比 -30.4↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IC主力合约（2512） | 7115.8 | -63.2↓ IC次主力合约（2603） | 6940.8 | -60.6↓ | | | IH主力合约（2512） | 2983.8 | -2.4↓ IH次主力合约（2603） | 2977.0 | -2.0↓ | | | IM主力合约（2512） | 7308.0 | -60.2↓ IM次主力合约（2603） | 7073.0 | -55.0↓ | | | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1561.8 | -25.4↓ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 2570.2 | -29.8↓ | | 期货盘面 | IM-IC当月合约价差 | 192.2 | +4.4↑ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 4132.0 | -55.2↓ | | | IM-IF当月合约价差 | 2762.4 | -25.4↓ IM-I ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of synthetic rubber is sufficient and the production profit is high, but the downstream is firm in pressing prices, resulting in high pressure on the spot market. It is expected that the inventories of production enterprises and trading enterprises will both increase slightly in the short term. The resumption of production scheduling of previously overhauled enterprises has driven the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises to increase month - on - month, but it is in the seasonal off - season, with a slow overall shipment rhythm and limited capacity utilization rate increase. As the finished product inventory continues to rise, some enterprises may overhaul or reduce production in the future. The short - term price of the br2602 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,300 and 11,000 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,845 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 125 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 98,043, with a month - on - month increase of 8,209. The 1 - 2 spread of synthetic rubber is - 40 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,650 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,600 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 10,700 yuan/ton; and that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 10,900 yuan/ton, all with no month - on - month change. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 95 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 25 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of Brent crude oil is 61.12 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 US dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil is 57.44 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 US dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 548.75 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.5 US dollars/ton; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 745 US dollars/ton, with no month - on - month change; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 870 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10 US dollars/ton; the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 7,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 159,300 tons, with no month - on - month change; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 71.17%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 35,900 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5,200 tons; the daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 55.9%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.21 percentage points [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 130,100 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 7,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 70.69%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.84 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is 349 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 135 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber is 32,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 300 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory is 26,500 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 600 tons; the weekly trader inventory is 5,450 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 220 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 71.57%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.65 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 64.07%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.57 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1.301 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 59,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5.831 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 663,000 pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 40.58 days, with a month - on - month increase of 1.07 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.51 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.56 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points. The resumption of production scheduling of previously overhauled enterprises has driven the capacity utilization rate. In November, the domestic butadiene rubber output was 130,100 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 7,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber in November was 68.13%, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.27 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.53 percentage points. As of December 11, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 32,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.18% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory of domestic methanol production enterprises may accumulate in the short - term due to sufficient supply in the main production areas and some large methanol plants increasing production, despite a slight decrease in inventory last week. The port inventory decreased significantly last week, and future attention should be paid to the unloading of foreign vessels. The MTO industry's operating rate is expected to decline. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2070 - 2170 in the short - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2074 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 50 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 370491 lots, down 111898 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 159057 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8623, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2095 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1960 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton. The East - Northwest price difference is 130 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is 21 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the Chinese main port is 245 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 317 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 254 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the Chinese main port and Southeast Asia is - 72 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 4.1 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.13 US dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 83.06 tons, down 10.82 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 40.38 tons, down 0.68 tons. The import profit of methanol is - 19.56 yuan/ton, down 6.15 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 161.26 tons, up 18.57 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 352800 tons, down 8700 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 89.81%, up 0.72% [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 41.49%, down 1.42%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 8.98%, up 1.1%. The operating rate of acetic acid is 73.89%, up 4.27%; the operating rate of MTBE is 69.75%, down 0.22%. The operating rate of olefins is 89.95%, down 0.87%. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 918 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 18.54%, down 1.75%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 0.55%. The 40 - day historical volatility of methanol is 17.98%, down 0.57%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.94%, down 0.57% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of December 10, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 35.28 tons, down 0.87 tons or 2.40% from the previous period; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 20.75 tons, down 3.22 tons or 13.45% from the previous period. As of December 10, the total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 123.44 tons, down 11.5 tons from the previous data. As of December 11, the output of domestic methanol increased as the production capacity loss from maintenance and production cuts was less than the output from capacity recovery [2]

鸡蛋产业日报 2025-12-15 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | 3122 | 45 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | -39502 | -1012 | | 克) | 鸡蛋期货月间价差(1-5):(日,元/500千克) | -438 | 35 期货持仓量(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,手) | 82721 | -4363 | | | 注册仓单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | 0 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 鸡蛋现货价格(日,元/斤) | 3.09 | -0.04 基差(现货-期货)(日,元/500千克) | -34 | -85 | | 上游情况 | 产蛋鸡存栏指数:全国(月,2015=100) | 114.24 | -1.02 淘汰产蛋鸡指数:全国(月,2015=100) | 114.44 | -10.19 | | | 主产区平均价:蛋鸡苗(周,元/羽) | 2.8 | -0.05 新增雏鸡指数:全 ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | 美玉米收割步入出口旺季，阶段性供应压力较高。且全球及美玉米供需仍然相对宽松，压制国际玉米市场 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 价格。不过，USDA将2025/26年度美玉米结转库存预测值从上月的21.54亿蒲式耳下调至20.29亿蒲式耳， | | | | | 观点总结（ | 低于分析师预期的21.24亿蒲式耳，对美玉米价格有所支撑。国内方面，东北产区进入12月储备库的收购力 | | | | | 玉米） | 度加大，收储库点持续增多，轮换玉米的采购量也在增加，部分粮库提高收购价，对市场底部构成支撑。 | | | | | | 不过，阶段性高价限制了用 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly, with a decrease in open interest, spot discount, and strengthening basis. In terms of fundamentals, the spot processing fee index of copper concentrates remained at a low negative level, and the expectation of tight ore supply would continue to support the copper smelting end in the long - term. On the supply side, the price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting, was still good, making up for some profit losses of smelters. The smelter operating rate rebounded slightly due to the resumption of production after previous maintenance, but the increase was small due to raw material shortages. On the demand side, although the copper price was strong in the short - term due to macro - expectations, the high price suppressed the downstream purchasing sentiment, and social inventory increased slightly. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.12, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.118, the market sentiment was bullish, and the implied volatility increased slightly. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD had both lines above the 0 - axis, and the green bars slightly converged. The report suggests light - position oscillatory trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 92,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,680 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 11,646 dollars/ton, an increase of 131 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was - 90 yuan/ton, unchanged. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 165,808 lots, a decrease of 22,841 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 32,229 lots, an increase of 3,407 lots. The LME copper inventory was 165,900 tons, an increase of 50 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper was 89,389 tons, an increase of 484 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants were 66,000 tons, a decrease of 650 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper were 42,226 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 92,265 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,330 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 92,395 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,500 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 47 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper was 43 dollars/ton, an increase of 1 dollar. The basis of the CU main contract was - 135 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan. The LME copper cash - 3 months spread was 20.69 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.07 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 245.15 million tons, a decrease of 13.56 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters was - 43.08 dollars/kiloton, a decrease of 0.22 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 84,140 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 1,030 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan was 84,840 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 1,030 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the South was 1,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the processing fee for blister copper in the North was 1,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. The output of refined copper was 120.40 million tons, a decrease of 6.20 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 427,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 64,190 yuan/ton, an increase of 700 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 970 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 78,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 750 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 200.40 million tons, a decrease of 22.80 million tons. The cumulative completed value of power grid infrastructure investment was 4,824.34 billion yuan, an increase of 446.27 billion yuan. The cumulative completed value of real estate development investment was 78,591 billion yuan, an increase of 5,028.30 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,390,000 thousand pieces, an increase of 213,000 thousand pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 18.19%, an increase of 1.49 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 17.00%, an increase of 0.64 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month was 18.62%, an increase of 0.0181 percentage points. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.12, a decrease of 0.118 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - China's November financial data showed that in the first 11 months, RMB loans increased by 15.36 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 33.39 trillion yuan, exceeding that of last year. At the end of November, M2 increased by 8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 4.9% year - on - year, the stock of social financing increased by 8.5% year - on - year, and RMB loan balances increased by 6.4% year - on - year. The growth rates of inclusive small and micro loans, medium - and long - term loans in the manufacturing industry, and technology loans continued to be higher than the overall loan growth rate. Multiple Fed officials spoke. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said inflation was no longer the biggest enemy, and the downside risk to employment was more worrying. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said he voted against a rate cut on Wednesday, expecting more data, and predicted more rate cuts next year than the median forecast. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said they hoped the policy would remain moderately restrictive. The National Development and Reform Work Conference was held in Beijing to deploy key tasks for 2026. It emphasized strengthening economic monitoring and early - warning analysis, perfecting the policy toolbox, and promoting policies to take effect in advance. Measures should be taken to promote investment to stop falling and stabilize, and boost consumption. At the 2025 - 2026 China Economic Annual Conference, Han Wenxiu said that China's main economic indicators were better than expected, and the economic aggregate was expected to reach about 140 trillion yuan this year. In 2026, policies should be introduced according to the situation, and various tasks such as promoting the synchronous growth of residents' income and economic growth should be carried out [2].