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沪铜产业日报-20250908
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-08 08:25
免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料,瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠,但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证,据此投资,责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议, 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有,未经书面许可,任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发,需注明 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院,且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 数据来源第三方,观点仅供参考。市场有风险,投资需谨慎! 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 沪铜产业日报 2025/9/8 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 79,650.00 | -490.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9,904.00 | +6.50↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 30.00 | +30.00↑ 主力 ...
瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20250908
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-08 08:24
数据来源第三方,观点仅供参考。市场有风险,投资需谨慎! 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料,瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠,但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证,据此投资,责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议, 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院,且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铝类产业日报 2025/9/8 | 项目类别 数据指标 | 环比 | 最新 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20,720.00 | +25.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,960.00 | -46.00↓ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 35.00 | 0.00 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -29.00 | -5.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 195,780.00 | -1613.00↓ ...
瑞达期货宏观市场周报-20250905
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 09:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the US, employment indicators continue to slow, and a rate cut is almost certain. The "asymmetry" between economic resilience and the slowdown in employment and inflation continues to disrupt the long - end yield of US Treasuries, making it difficult for the US dollar to establish a real interest rate differential advantage. If the non - farm payroll data continues to cool, it will further solidify the rate - cut expectation [10]. - In Europe, core inflation has a mild rebound, and the economic outlook has improved. The inflation level remains relatively firm, manufacturing activities show improvement, and the economic outlook within the region is becoming more optimistic as external trade pressure eases [10]. - In China, the 8 - month official manufacturing PMI has improved, and it is expected to continue to show marginal improvement in September. However, there are significant structural differentiations in the manufacturing industry, and subsequent policies are expected to favor high - tech manufacturing [11]. - In the capital market, A - share major indices generally declined this week, except for the ChiNext Index. The four stock index futures also fell collectively. The bond market's trend is restricted by the change in market risk preference. Commodity indices are expected to strengthen due to the strong performance of gold. The US dollar has a rebound, and the euro is fluctuating [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions - **Stock Market**: The CSI 300 fell 0.81%, and the CSI 300 stock index futures fell 1.02%. A - share major indices generally declined this week, except for the ChiNext Index. The four stock index futures also fell collectively, with large - cap blue - chip stocks being relatively firm. The market was dull on Monday, weakened from Tuesday to Thursday due to the 8 - month manufacturing PMI in the contraction range, and rebounded strongly on Friday due to the increased expectation of a Fed rate cut. The daily trading volume remained above 2 trillion. The allocation suggestion is to buy on dips [6]. - **Bond Market**: The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.26% this week, with a weekly change of - 0.48BP, and the main 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.10%. The bond market's trend is restricted by market risk preference. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [6]. - **Commodity Market**: The Wind Commodity Index rose 4.69%, and the CSI Commodity Futures Price Index rose 1.00%. A series of poor US economic data have strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, which has boosted the price of gold and the commodity index. The allocation suggestion is to mainly watch [6]. - **Foreign Exchange Market**: The euro against the US dollar fell 0.17%, and the euro against the US dollar 2509 contract fell 0.15%. Before the release of non - farm payroll data, the long - short game of the US dollar intensified. The market has fully priced in a 25 - bps Fed rate cut in September. The euro is fluctuating. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [6]. - **Central Bank's Open - Market Operations**: This week, the central bank of China had a net withdrawal of 1.2047 trillion yuan in the open market. It conducted a 1 - trillion - yuan 3 - month repurchase operation on September 5 to renew the same - term maturing instruments. Although the current liquidity is seasonally loose, there is still 300 billion yuan of 6 - month repurchase maturing this month. In the context of slowing economic growth, a stable exchange rate, and an increased probability of a Fed rate cut, the central bank is expected to continue to inject medium - term liquidity [12]. 3.2 Important News and Events - **Domestic News**: China and Russia signed more than 20 bilateral cooperation documents in various fields. The "Measures for Marking AI - Generated Synthetic Content" came into effect on September 1. The National Development and Reform Commission will improve the long - term mechanism for private enterprises to participate in major national projects. The SCO member states issued a statement on strengthening digital economy development [14]. - **International News**: Trump appealed to the US Supreme Court regarding the tariff ruling. The Fed's Beige Book showed that economic activities in most parts of the US had little change. ECB President Lagarde said she would ensure the inflation rate stays at 2%. The deputy governor of the Bank of Japan signaled to continue the rate - hike process [16]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **US Economic Data**: The US 8 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, the 7 - month factory orders monthly rate was - 1.3%, the 8 - month ADP employment number was 54,000, the initial jobless claims for the week ending August 30 were 237,000, and the 7 - month trade balance was - 78.3 billion US dollars [17]. - **European Economic Data**: The eurozone 8 - month manufacturing PMI final value was 50.7, the 7 - month unemployment rate was 6.2%, the 8 - month CPI annual rate initial value was 2.1%, the 7 - month PPI monthly rate was 0.4%, and the 7 - month retail sales monthly rate was - 0.5% [17]. - **Other European Countries**: The UK 8 - month manufacturing PMI final value was 47, the German 8 - month manufacturing PMI final value was 49.8, and the French 8 - month manufacturing PMI final value was 50.4 [17]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Next week, important economic data to be released include China's August export and import annual rates in US dollars, CPI annual rate, etc.; Japan's July trade balance; Germany's July industrial output monthly rate; the US's August PPI annual rate, CPI annual rate, etc.; and the eurozone's September 11 European Central Bank deposit mechanism interest rate [78].
集运指数(欧线)期货周报-20250905
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 09:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core View of the Report - The freight rates are still suppressed by the fundamentals in the short term. With demand not significantly improving, over - capacity remains a huge pressure on the supply side, limiting the recovery space of shipping prosperity. - The implementation of the price increase announced by leading shipping companies in December depends on the cargo volume in the fourth quarter. Although the euro - zone economic data has improved, the overall situation is not optimistic. - The uncertainty of tariffs is too high. Despite short - term improvements, the market is generally in a wait - and - see mode. - Freight and industry profitability are expected to be under pressure, and this traditional peak season may show the characteristic of "not a real peak season", with freight rates expected to fluctuate weakly. [6][39] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review - The prices of container shipping index (European line) futures rose collectively this week. The main contract EC2510 closed up 3.4%, and the far - month contracts rose between 3 - 10%. - The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1773.6, down 216.6 points from last week, a 10.9% decline. - The trading volume and open interest of the EC2510 contract declined this week. [6][9][16] 3.2. News Review and Analysis - The US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff measures implemented by President Trump were illegal, which is bullish for the market. - MSC plans to adjust the capacity of Asia - to - Europe routes from week 39 to week 41 due to expected slowdown in demand during the Golden Week, with four voyages cancelled, which is neutral to bearish. - The implementation of the US - Japan trade agreement and Japan's plan to increase US rice purchases are bearish. - The Fed's Beige Book shows that economic activity in most parts of the US has hardly changed, which is neutral. [19] 3.3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of container shipping index (European line) futures contracts converged this week. - The export container freight rate index declined this week. - Container shipping capacity declined in the short term. - The BDI and BPI rebounded due to geopolitical factors. - The charter price of Panamax ships rebounded rapidly this week. - The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar fluctuated mainly. [22][24][28][32] 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The prices of container shipping index (European line) futures rose collectively this week, but the spot index continued to decline, pulling down the futures prices. - The "price war" has put continuous pressure on the fundamentals. - The weakening US labor market has increased the market's expectation of an interest rate cut this month. - The euro - zone internal demand is still weak. - Overall, the freight rates are expected to fluctuate weakly, and factors such as the actual follow - up of shipping companies' cabin opening prices in December, the frequency of Houthi attacks, and trade - war related information need to be continuously monitored. [38][39]
瑞达期货尿素市场周报-20250905
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 09:45
瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.09.05」 尿素市场周报 研究员:林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾:本周国内尿素市场延续低位波动,截止本周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂下跌至1650- 1700元/吨,均价环比下跌5元/吨。 行情展望:近期部分新增装置检修,暂无停车企业装置恢复,国内尿素日产量减少,下周预计3家 企业计划停车,2-4家停车企业恢复生产,考虑到短时的企业故障发生,产量变动的幅度有限。国 内农业需求处于季节性淡季,苏皖农业备肥有小幅增加趋势。工业复合肥因前期原料有一定量的 储备,短期对原料尿素的补仓推进或有下降,下周随着前期停车装置陆续恢复提升负荷,复合肥 产能利用率陆续回升。国内需求推进缓慢,部分企业出货不及预期,本周国内尿素企业库存涨跌 不一,整体库存水平小幅增加,重大活动结束后,下游工业开工有提升预期,加之尿素阶段性集 港出口,尿素企业库存有下降趋势。 策略建议: UR2601合约短线预计在1700-1760区 ...
菜籽类市场周报:贸易谈判消息影响,菜系品种相对震荡-20250905
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 09:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed oil, it's recommended to take a bullish approach and monitor the China - Canada talks. This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated slightly higher. The temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may impact its exports and put pressure on prices. However, the Canadian Prime Minister's involvement in resolving the tariff dispute, concerns about palm oil production and transportation in Indonesia, and strong palm oil export data in Malaysia support the market. Domestically, the terminal consumption boost from the start of school is limited, and the supply - demand of vegetable oils is still relatively loose. But the low oil mill operating rate and fewer near - month rapeseed purchases reduce supply pressure, and the anti - dumping measures weaken long - term supply. The rapeseed oil market is expected to maintain a narrow - range fluctuation in the near term [8][9]. - For rapeseed meal, it's advisable to hold a bullish view and focus on China - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations. This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated slightly higher. The Pro Farmer report shows a high expected US soybean yield, indicating supply pressure. However, the unexpected reduction in planting area supports the market. Domestically, the low near - month rapeseed arrivals, the peak season of aquaculture, and the anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed reduce supply pressure. But the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The ongoing trade negotiations between China - Canada and China - US make the market cautious [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Rapeseed oil: The 01 contract closed at 9,818 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton from the previous week. It's recommended to be bullish and pay attention to China - Canada talks [8][9]. - Rapeseed meal: The 01 contract closed at 2,550 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton from the previous week. It's recommended to be bullish and focus on China - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations [11][12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures market: This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated lower, with a total position of 249,260 lots, down 14,341 lots from last week; rapeseed meal futures fell from a high, with a total position of 396,574 lots, down 17,596 lots from the previous week [17]. - Top 20 net positions: This week, the top 20 net position of rapeseed oil futures changed from net long to net short (- 2,779); the top 20 net position of rapeseed meal futures changed from net short to net long (+ 2,999) [23]. - Registered warehouse receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil are 6,028 lots; the registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed meal are 6,761 lots [29][30]. - Spot price and basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,960 yuan/ton, slightly rising from last week, and the basis is + 142 yuan/ton; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu is 2,540 yuan/ton, with little change, and the basis is - 10 yuan/ton [36][42]. - Inter - month spread: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is + 158 yuan/ton, at a medium level in recent years; the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal is + 89 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in recent years [48]. - Futures - spot ratio: The ratio of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal 01 contracts is 3.85; the average spot price ratio is 3.92 [51]. - Price difference between rapeseed oil and other oils: The 01 contract spread of rapeseed oil - soybean oil is 1,368 yuan/ton, with relative fluctuation this week; the 01 contract spread of rapeseed oil - palm oil is 292 yuan/ton, narrowing this week [61]. - Price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal: The 01 contract spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal is 517 yuan/ton; as of Thursday, the spot spread is 430 yuan/ton [67]. 3.3. Industry Situation - Rapeseed supply: As of August 29, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 100,000 tons; the estimated arrivals in August, September, and October 2025 are 200,000, 130,000, and 150,000 tons respectively. As of September 4, the spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed is + 1,123 yuan/ton. By the 35th week of 2025, the crushing volume of rapeseed in coastal oil mills is 48,000 tons, up 3,000 tons from last week, and the operating rate is 11.74%. In July 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed is 176,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 56.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.85 tons [73][77][81]. - Rapeseed oil supply: By the end of the 35th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed oil is 737,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.20%. In July 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed oil is 133,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.86% and a month - on - month decrease of 16,700 tons [89]. - Rapeseed oil demand: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 476,900 tons; as of July 31, 2025, the monthly catering revenue is 450.41 billion yuan. By the end of the 35th week of 2025, the contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed oil is 139,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 43.61% [93][97]. - Rapeseed meal supply: By the end of the 35th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal is 19,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.52%. In July 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed meal is 183,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.00% and a month - on - month decrease of 87,200 tons [101][105]. - Rapeseed meal demand: As of July 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed is 2,827,300 tons [109]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis As of September 5, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options is 21.53%, down 0.24% from last week, at a slightly medium level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [113].
白糖市场周报-20250905
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 09:38
瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.05」 白糖市场周报 研究员:王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信客 服 号 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾:本周郑糖2601合约价格下跌,周度跌幅约1.45%。 图2、CFTC美糖非商业净持仓情况 来源:wind 瑞达期货研究院 行情展望:国际糖业组织ISO预测显示,2025/26年度全球食糖供需缺口仅为23.1 万吨,尽管与2024/25年度修正值487.9万吨相比,短缺规模的缩小幅度很大,但在 新年度开始之前,这种规模的全球缺口可以忽略不计。国内方面,8月单月广西、 云南销糖数据同比均减少,8月广西单月销糖26.02万吨,同比减少9.69万吨;8月 云南单月销糖13.09万吨,同比减少1.01万吨。不过下游处于双节备货阶段,预计 刚需对价格有所支撑。短期糖价下跌或受限。 交易策略:操作上,建议郑糖2601合约短期观望为主。 未来关注因素: 1、国内产销情况 2、双节备货 3 「 期现市场情况」 本周美糖市场 图1、ICE美糖 ...
苹果市场周报-20250905
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 09:38
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Apple Futures 2510 contract declined slightly, with a weekly decrease of 0.08%. New - season early - maturing Fuji apples are gradually entering the market, with prices and quality higher than expected. In the old - crop market, the inventory in cold storage has decreased, and the shipping has accelerated slightly compared to last week. The consumption of inventory apples in the sales area is generally slow, and the market prefers high - quality goods. It is recommended to take a short - term long - position approach for the Apple 2510 contract, and attention should be paid to the pre - holiday stocking for the Double Festival [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights - **Market Review**: The price of the Apple Futures 2510 contract declined slightly this week, with a weekly decrease of 0.08% [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: New - season early - maturing Fuji apples are gradually entering the market, with prices and quality higher than expected. As of September 3, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 273,500 tons, a decrease of 66,200 tons from last week. The shipping has accelerated slightly. In the Shandong production area, some merchants are choosing to adjust inventory Fuji, and the holders are firm in their asking prices. In the Shaanxi production area, the market is in the final stage, and merchants mainly pick up their own inventory. The consumption of inventory apples in the sales area is generally slow, and the market prefers high - quality goods. Attention should be paid to the pre - holiday stocking for the Double Festival [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to take a short - term long - position approach for the Apple 2510 contract [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Monitor the listing volume of early - maturing Fuji apples and consumption [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The price of the Apple Futures 2510 contract declined slightly this week, with a weekly decrease of 0.08%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in apple futures was 4,290 lots, and the number of apple futures warehouse receipts was 0 [10][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 5, 2025, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade farmer - supplied bagged red Fuji in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 3.7 yuan per catty; the price of bagged 75 and above Fuji apples in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.3 yuan per catty [19]. 3.3 Industry Situation and Options - **Supply Side**: As of September 3, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 273,500 tons, a decrease of 66,200 tons from last week. The shipping has accelerated slightly. The storage capacity ratio in the Shandong production area was 5.46%, a decrease of 0.92% from last week; the storage capacity ratio in the Shaanxi production area was 0.53%, a decrease of 0.48% from last week [27]. - **Demand Side**: - As of September 4, the average daily number of early - morning arrivals at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was 0.30 yuan per catty [31]. - As of August 29, 2025, the wholesale price of all apple varieties was 9.75 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan per kilogram; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 8.54 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 yuan per kilogram [36]. - As of August 29, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of 5 types of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, grapes, pears, and watermelons) was 6.85 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 yuan per kilogram [40]. - As of July 31, 2025, the monthly export volume of apples was 50,000 tons; the monthly export value was 632.84 million US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 46.13%; the cumulative export value was 4,882.89 million US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 14.89% [44]. - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for apples this week is presented in the form of a graph, but specific data is not mentioned [45]. 3.4 Futures - Stock Correlation - The report shows a graph of the price - to - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit & Vegetable Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [47].
红枣市场周报-20250905
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 09:37
瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.05」 红枣市场周报 研究员:王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 业务咨询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场及期股关联 「 周度要点小结」 未来交易提示: 1、现货价格2、消费端 3 行情回顾:本周郑枣主力合约价格下跌,周度跌幅约4.43%。 行情展望:销区市场,到货量偏少,下游采购积极性一般,成交氛围冷清。据 Mysteel 农产品调研数据统计,截止2025年9月4日红枣本周36家样本点物理库存 在9410吨,较上周减少46吨,环比减少0.49%,同比增加76.45%,样本点库存小 幅下降,降幅仍相对有限,供应压力仍在。当前红枣市场处于"青黄不接"的关键 时期,市场情绪和价格走势复杂交织,矛盾与博弈并存。总体来说,下游需求 表现疲软,旧作库存仍较高,供需矛盾尚未得到有效缓解,现货价格开始松动, 红枣期货震荡偏弱走势。 策略建议:操作上,建议郑枣2601合约短期暂且观望。 「 期现市场情况」 来源:郑商所 瑞达期货研究院 「 期现市场情况」 本周郑枣期货 ...
鸡蛋市场周报:现货小幅走强,提振盘面低位反弹-20250905
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 09:37
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current egg production is sufficient due to high laying - hen inventory and the pressure of newly - opened laying hens from previous replenishment, along with the continuous release of cold - storage eggs. Although the demand has slightly increased during the Mid - Autumn Festival stocking and school openings, it is still weak year - on - year. The short - term demand has limited support for prices, and the spot price is at the lowest level of the same period this year. However, the continuous losses of the breeding end may accelerate the culling of old hens and reduce the enthusiasm for replenishment. The futures price has rebounded from a low level, but the momentum for continuous upward movement is insufficient under high - production pressure. The recommended strategy is to sell on rebounds and pay attention to the culling volume of old hens [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights - **Market Performance**: This week, the egg futures price first rose and then fell. The closing price of the 2510 contract was 2964 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 25 yuan/500 kilograms compared with the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: High laying - hen inventory, new production pressure, and cold - storage egg release lead to sufficient supply. Although demand has slightly recovered, it is still weak year - on - year. The short - term demand support for prices is weak, and the spot price is at a low level. Pay attention to the culling of old hens [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a strategy of selling on rebounds and focus on the culling volume of old hens [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The 10 - contract of egg futures first rose and then fell. The position was 349,551 lots, a decrease of 144,211 lots compared with the previous week. The net position of the top 20 decreased slightly [13]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [17]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was 3330 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 214 yuan/500 kilograms compared with the previous week. The basis between the active 10 - contract futures price and the spot average price was 366 yuan/ton [23]. - **Futures Inter - monthly Spread**: The 10 - 1 spread of egg futures was - 389 yuan/500 kilograms, at a relatively low level in the same period [27]. - **Related Product Spot Prices**: As of September 4, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.85 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of monitored vegetables was 5.12 yuan/kg [33]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Supply - Side Indicators**: As of July 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 113.18, a month - on - month increase of 1.13%; the new - chick index was 78.4, a month - on - month increase of 3.06% [39]. - **Culling Indicators**: As of July 31, 2025, the national culled laying - hen index was 99.2, a month - on - month decrease of 4.70%; the average age of culled hens was 512 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of September 4, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2360.59 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 3000 yuan/ton [48]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of August 29, 2025, the breeding profit of laying hens was - 0.21 yuan/hen, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was 2.76 yuan/kg [55]. - **Prices of Laying - Hen Chicks and Culled Hens**: As of August 29, 2025, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas was 3.0 yuan/chick, and the average price of culled hens was 9.66 yuan/kg [60]. - **Egg Exports**: In May 2025, the total egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, an increase of 927.30 tons (7.87%) compared with the same period last year, and a decrease of 81.14 tons compared with the previous month [65]. 3.4 Representative Company - **Xiaoming Co., Ltd.**: Information about its price - earnings ratio change is provided, but no specific analysis is given [67].