| | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | 2025/12/11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 33.7↑ EC次主力收盘价 1092.7 | 1689.000 | | +9.40↑ | | 期货盘面 | EC2602-EC2604价差 +11.80↑ EC2602-EC2606价差 462.00 | 596.30 | | +22.40↑ | | | EC合约基差 -23.80↓ | -179.90 | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 241↑ | 31623 | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） 25.45↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） 960.51 | 1509.10 | | 11.74↑ | | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） -5.50↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） 1,227.97 | 1397.63 | | 0.00↑ | | 现货价格 | CCFI（综合指数）（周） -6.91↓ CCFI（欧线）（周） 1,447.56 | 11 ...

5.0%。前10日出口数据依然偏弱，短期马棕现实供应压力依然偏大。短期棕榈油弱势震荡为主。 棕榈油产业日报 2025-12-11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:棕榈油(日,元/吨) | 8642 | 100 棕榈油1-5价差(日,元/吨) | 14 | 0 0 | | | 期货持仓量(活跃合约):棕榈油(日,手) | 355564 | 190193 注册仓单量:棕榈油(日,手) | 950 | | | 期货市场 | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:棕榈油(日,手) | -13189 | 4028 期货结算价(连续):BMD毛棕榈油(日,马来 | 4025 | -6 | | | 期货结算价(活跃合约):NYMEX轻质原油( | 58.46 | 西亚林吉特/吨) 0.21 | | | | | 日,美元/桶) 现货价:棕榈油(24度):广东(日,元/吨) | 8680 | 40 棕榈油(马来西亚):FOB离岸价(日,美元/吨 | 1030 | | | 现货价格 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai nickel will experience a short - term weak adjustment, and investors should pay attention to the competition at the 116,000 - yuan mark. The Philippines is in the rainy season, leading to a decline in nickel ore imports. The potential variables of Indonesia's RKAB approval and possible export policy changes have limited impact on supply recently. The supply of the pure nickel market is under great pressure, while the demand side shows positive trends. Both domestic and overseas nickel inventories are increasing, and the technical side shows a bearish atmosphere [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 115,870 yuan/ton, down 1,220 yuan; the 01 - 02 month contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 190 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 14,675 US dollars/ton, down 75 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 106,302 lots, an increase of 3,719 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 18,301 lots, an increase of 3,129 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 253,092 tons, an increase of 564 tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 42,508 tons, an increase of 1,726 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 9,390 tons, an increase of 336 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 33,939 tons, a decrease of 296 tons [2]. 现货 Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 118,850 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 118,750 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 2,980 yuan/ton, an increase of 920 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 192.16 US dollars/ton, down 1.7 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 468.28 tons, a decrease of 143.17 tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,469.71 tons, a decrease of 17.62 tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 57.33 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.61 US dollars. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 2.29 million metal tons, an increase of 0.12 million metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, a decrease of 18,631.22 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 90.51 tons, a decrease of 18.02 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 3.73 tons, and the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 58.53 tons, a decrease of 1.23 tons [2]. Industry News - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but three voting members opposed it. It still expects to cut interest rates once next year and will buy short - term bonds worth 40 billion US dollars. Powell said that the bond - buying scale may remain at a high level in the next few months, the labor market is gradually cooling but slower than expected, and it can wait patiently at the current interest rate, and the impact of tariffs is expected to gradually subside next year. China's CPI in November increased by 0.7% year - on - year, the highest since March 2024, and the year - on - year decline of PPI slightly widened. Hassett said that Trump will make a final decision on the candidate for the Fed chairman in the next 1 - 2 weeks [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report expects short - term strong adjustment of Shanghai Tin, with a focus on the range of 315,000 - 325,000 yuan/ton. The macro - situation includes the Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut, and the supply side has a relatively tight domestic tin ore import supply. The demand side shows that downstream has purchasing willingness when tin prices decline, but high prices suppress transactions. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin futures main contract is 320,600 yuan/ton, down 2,030 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 40,010 dollars/ton, up 160 dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin is 42,785 lots, down 4,714 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 430 lots, down 1,183 lots. LME tin's total inventory is 3,655 tons, up 605 tons, and the cancelled warrants are 165 tons, down 95 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's stock of tin is 6,865 tons (weekly), up 506 tons, and the warehouse receipts are 7,024 tons (daily), down 127 tons. [3] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 320,000 yuan/ton, up 3,300 yuan. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 320,770 yuan/ton, up 3,630 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 5,930 yuan/ton, down 9,610 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 30 dollars/ton, down 11 dollars. [3] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, up 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 308,000 yuan/ton, up 6,000 yuan, with a processing fee of 10,500 yuan/ton (unchanged). The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 312,000 yuan/ton, up 6,000 yuan, with a processing fee of 6,500 yuan/ton (unchanged). [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, down 518.38 tons. [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 205,370 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 124.54 million tons, up 13.61 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 22.26 million tons, up 2.5 million tons. [3] Industry News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, with three voting members opposing. It is still expected to cut rates once next year and will buy short - term bonds worth 40 billion dollars. China's November CPI rose 0.7% year - on - year, the highest since March 2024, and the year - on - year decline of PPI slightly expanded. Hassett said Trump would make a final decision on the Fed chairman candidate in the next 1 - 2 weeks. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The trading volume of late Fuji apples remains sluggish, with limited orders from merchants in the production areas. The出库 in Shandong is slow and the in - warehouse trading is limited. In Shaanxi, farmers are not eager to sell. The arrival volume in the sales areas has increased slightly, but the trading atmosphere is still light, with overstocking in transit warehouses. Affected by citrus fruits, the terminal sales are slow, and prices are expected to decline [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract is 9,505 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest is 130,067 lots, a decrease of 8,564 lots compared to the previous period. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 6,502 lots, an increase of 304 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged above 75), Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged above 75), Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged above 70 semi - commercial), and Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged above 80 first - grade) are 5.25 yuan/jin, 2.6 yuan/jin, 4.2 yuan/jin, and 4 yuan/jin respectively, with no change from the previous period [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The annual national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons. The weekly wholesale price of apples is 9.37 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg compared to the previous period. The average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.07 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg. The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 758.55 million tons, a decrease of 4.96 million tons. The capacity utilization ratios of apple cold - storage in Shandong and Shaanxi are 0.54 and 0.58 respectively, with no change. The monthly apple export volume is 80,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts decreased by 5.8%, and the monthly year - on - year export value of apples decreased by 14.3%. The monthly import value decreased by 503,616 US dollars to 1,334,364 US dollars. The weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples is 0 yuan/jin [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale prices of pears, bananas, and watermelons are 6.74 yuan/kg, 6.33 yuan/kg, and 5.47 yuan/kg respectively, with changes of - 0.02 yuan/kg, + 0.33 yuan/kg, and + 0.06 yuan/kg compared to the previous period. The early - morning average daily vehicle arrivals at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets are 17.2, 19.6, and 26.8 vehicles respectively, with changes of + 1.2, 0, and + 1.6 vehicles compared to the previous period [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for apples is 22.17% and 22.18% respectively, with changes of - 0.24% and - 0.21% compared to the previous period [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of December 11, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory is 758.55 million tons, a decrease of 4.97 million tons from the previous week. The capacity utilization ratio in Shandong is 53.73%, a decrease of 0.24% from the previous week, and in Shaanxi is 57.86%, a decrease of 0.35% from the previous week [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic cotton market has a sufficient supply as the current inspection volume of new - cotton has exceeded 4.6 million tons and port cotton stocks remain high. The import quota for this year is almost used up, with limited RMB exports and more imports than exports at ports. As of December 4th, the inventory at major import cotton ports increased by 1.92% week - on - week, reaching a total of 387,600 tons, a five - month high. The downstream demand is relatively differentiated, with the demand for high - count yarn improving, which boosts the cotton market. Overall, the demand margin is improving and the price center may continue to rise [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price was 13,860 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price was 20,005 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 155,603 lots, down 19,526 lots; for cotton yarn futures, it was - 506 lots, down 256 lots. The main contract holding volume for cotton was 443,647 lots, down 30,671 lots; for cotton yarn, it was 20,500 lots, up 2,442 lots. The cotton warehouse receipt quantity was 2,967 sheets, down 3 sheets; for cotton yarn, it was 12 sheets, unchanged. The China Cotton Price Index: CCIndex: 3128B was 15,013 yuan/ton; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 20,800 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The 1% tariff - included China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM was 12,846 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan; the sliding - duty price was 13,873 yuan/ton. The arrival price of imported pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 21,038 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; for pure - cotton combed 32 - count yarn, it was 22,211 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B) was 5,787 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. The national industrial inventory of cotton was 850,000 tons, up 65,000 tons. The monthly import volume of cotton was 90,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; for cotton yarn, it was 140,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. The daily profit from importing cotton was 1,131 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The national commercial inventory of cotton was 2.9306 million tons, up 1.9089 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn was 26.12 days, up 1.27 days; for grey cloth, it was 31.97 days, up 0.85 days. The monthly output of cloth was 2.62 billion meters, down 180 million meters; for yarn, it was 2.001 million tons, down 73,000 tons. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 110,034,804,300 dollars, down 14,497,665,700 dollars; for textile yarns, fabrics and products, it was 112,584,189,200 dollars, down 7,080,970,800 dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton was 13.96%, up 2.38%; for at - the - money put options, it was also 13.96%, up 2.38%. The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 5.6%, down 0.15%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 6.42%, down 0.01% [2] 3.7 Industry News - From December 1st to 7th, the average purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 5.99 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous week and 0.13 yuan/kg year - on - year. The average purchase price of hand - picked cotton was 6.6 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous week and up 0.02 yuan/kg year - on - year. The average purchase price of seed cotton in the inland was relatively stable at 6.86 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week. The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures closed higher on Wednesday, with the March cotton futures contract up 0.26 cents, or 0.41%, at 64.12 cents per pound [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - situation shows that the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but three voting members opposed. It still expects one more rate cut next year and will buy $40 billion in short - term bonds. The impact of tariffs is expected to gradually subside next year. Fundamentally, zinc ore imports have declined due to the worsening internal - external price ratio and increased losses in importing zinc concentrates. Domestic refineries' raw material winter reserves have started, with a preference for domestic zinc concentrates. Refinery profits have shrunk, and production is expected to drop significantly. Overseas supply remains tight, and China is expected to turn into a net exporter, easing domestic supply pressure. On the demand side, the downstream market is entering the off - season, with the real estate sector being a drag, while the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are weakening, and there are some bright spots in the automotive sector. The zinc price has corrected recently, the trading atmosphere has improved, the domestic inventory has decreased significantly, and the LME zinc inventory has rebounded. Technically, the price has corrected with shrinking volume and reduced positions, and the bullish sentiment has declined. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will undergo high - level adjustments, and attention should be paid to the battle at the 23,000 yuan/ton mark [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,995 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the 01 - 02 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 5 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote is 3,075 dollars/ton, down 14 dollars. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 200,606 lots, down 2,682 lots. The net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 10,858 lots, down 1,296 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory is 91,916 tons, down 4,000 tons, and the LME inventory is 59,800 tons, up 1,650 tons [2] Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 23,110 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 23,060 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is 115 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. The LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread is 158.52 dollars/ton, down 4.47 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 19,710 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan, and the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 21,000 tons, up 6,800 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, up 17,700 tons. The global zinc mine production by ILZSG is 1.0976 million tons, up 21,400 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 625,000 tons, down 26,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, down 164,500 tons [2] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, down 3,840.75 tons, and the refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, up 6,040.84 tons. The social zinc inventory is 132,500 tons, down 1,400 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons, and the sales volume is 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 490.6139 million square meters, up 36.6239 million square meters, and the monthly housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, up 37.3212 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 3.279 million vehicles, up 52,000 vehicles, and the monthly air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, down 3.8908 million units [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 12.87%, down 1.38 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 12.93%, down 1.32 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.61%, down 0.21 percentage points, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.85%, down 0.08 percentage points [2] Industry News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but three voting members opposed. It still expects one more rate cut next year and will buy $40 billion in short - term bonds. China's CPI in November increased by 0.7% year - on - year, the highest since March 2024, and the year - on - year decline in PPI slightly widened. Hassett said that Trump will make a final decision on the Fed chairman candidate in the next 1 - 2 weeks [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The price of Douyi is more robust due to factors such as the suspension of trading by traders, the full - completion of Cofco's competitive procurement, and the enhanced reluctance of farmers to sell. With the arrival of cold weather, the terminal market may have a replenishment wave in the middle and late December [2]. - The market doubts the actual procurement scale and shipping progress of Chinese soybean purchases from the US. The USDA monthly report data is neutral to slightly bearish, and the US soybean will continue its weak oscillation. The international soybean price will likely remain in the current low - level range if China's procurement demand does not expand [3]. - The domestic soybean meal spot market is in a stalemate. The inventory is high, and the December crushing volume may be lower than expected. The spot price shows some resistance to decline, and downstream feed enterprises maintain a high - position rolling inventory strategy [3]. - The domestic oil demand is weak. The palm oil import profit has recovered, but the December shipping purchases are few. The soybean oil supply is stable, the inventory is high, and the basis quotation is under pressure, showing a short - term oscillation trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of Douyi's futures main contract is 4173 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 12 compared to the previous period; the closing price of Douer's main contract is 3815 yuan/ton, with an increase of 42. The closing price of soybean meal's main contract is 2750 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 4; the closing price of soybean oil's main contract is 8036 yuan/ton, with an increase of 36. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of Douyi, Douer, soybean meal, and soybean oil are - 22759, 4953, - 484099, and - 107598 respectively [2]. - **CBOT Futures**: The settlement price of CBOT soybeans' active contract is 1091.25 cents/bushel, with an increase of 4; the settlement price of CBOT soybean meal's active contract is 301.2 dollars/short - ton, with a decrease of 0.1; the settlement price of CBOT soybean oil's active contract is 51.09 cents/pound, with an increase of 0.07 [2]. 3.2 Spot Price - **Domestic Spot**: The domestic soybean spot price is 3940 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The soybean oil prices in Rizhao, Zhangjiagang, and Zhanjiang are 8410, 8510, and 8550 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 20, 20, and 30. The soybean meal price in Zhangjiagang is 3060 yuan/ton, with an increase of 20 [2]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of US Gulf soybeans is 4027 yuan/ton, with an increase of 20; the import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3949 yuan/ton, with an increase of 11 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Inventory**: The annual US soybean production is 115.75 million tons, with a decrease of 1.3 million tons; the US soybean's ending inventory is 7.89 million tons, with a decrease of 0.28 million tons. The annual Brazilian production is 175 million tons, remaining unchanged; the Brazilian ending inventory is 36.36 million tons, with a decrease of 0.9 million tons [2]. - **Export and Inspection**: The weekly inspection volume of soybeans is 37569 thousand bushels, with an increase of 3614; the weekly export volume is 927844 tons, with a decrease of 100625. The monthly Brazilian export volume is 281.4 million tons, with a decrease of 144.6 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Inventory and开工率**: The port inventory of imported soybeans is 8303640 tons, with a decrease of 75690; the weekly soybean meal inventory is 116.19 million tons, with a decrease of 4.13 million tons. The national port inventory of soybean oil is 113 million tons, with a decrease of 3.8 million tons. The weekly oil - mill operating rate is 56.55%, with a decrease of 3.99; the weekly oil - mill crushing volume is 205.58 million tons, with a decrease of 14.5 million tons [2]. - **Profit and Spread**: The daily crushing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang is 121.15 yuan/ton, with an increase of 25.1; the daily crushing profit of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is - 21.5 yuan/ton, with an increase of 48.75. The daily soybean - palm oil spread is - 170 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 20; the daily rapeseed - soybean oil spread is 1530 yuan/ton, with an increase of 190 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Consumption and Production**: The annual total domestic consumption of soybeans in China is 126.8 million tons, with an increase of 5.1 million tons; the annual food consumption of soybean oil in China is 18800 thousand tons, with an increase of 900 thousand tons. The monthly production of feed is 29570000 tons, with a decrease of 1717000 tons [2]. - **Livestock Situation**: The price of live pigs (outer ternary) in Daxing, Beijing is 11.67 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.05. The weekly expected profit of pig farming is - 279.82 yuan/head, with a decrease of 32.39. The monthly pig inventory is 436800 thousand heads, with an increase of 12330 thousand heads; the monthly inventory of breeding sows is 39900 thousand heads, with a decrease of 450 thousand heads [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for soybean meal is 11.5%, with an increase of 0.36; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for soybean meal is 11.5%, with an increase of 0.37. The 20 - day historical volatility of soybean meal is 8.68%, with a decrease of 0.29; the 60 - day historical volatility of soybean meal is 9.02%, remaining unchanged [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Private exporters reported selling 136,000 tons of US soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year. Last week, in the Northeast soybean - producing area, due to high raw - grain prices and snow and rain weather, most traders' purchasing activities were blocked, and they suspended trading and turned to a wait - and - see attitude, resulting in difficult outflow of grain sources and a tight supply situation in the sales area [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - For the alumina market, it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading, control the rhythm and trading risks. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand has some resilience. The cost support is weakening, and the 60 - minute MACD shows a red - bar convergence with double lines below the 0 - axis [2]. - For the electrolytic aluminum market, light - position oscillatory trading is also advised. The supply has a slight growth trend, and the demand is transitioning from the peak to the off - season. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the 60 - minute MACD has double lines below the 0 - axis with a red - bar convergence [2]. - For the cast aluminum market, the suggestion is light - position oscillatory trading. The supply is restricted by raw materials and cost, and the demand is in a slight decline with inventory accumulation. The 60 - minute MACD shows double lines below the 0 - axis with a slightly converging red bar [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum and Alumina** - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 21,970 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,469 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. - The main - to - second - consecutive contract spread of Shanghai aluminum is - 95 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; that of alumina is - 57 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan. - The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum are 294,576 lots, up 108,770 lots; those of alumina are 257,111 lots, down 21,743 lots [2]. - **Other Indicators** - The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 2,862.50 US dollars/ton, up 17 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 520,800 tons, down 2,500 tons. - The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.68, down 0.03. - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 20,965 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; its positions are 17,569 lots, up 166 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices** - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum price is 21,890 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the alumina spot price is 2,725 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. - The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots is 21,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 21,740 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan [2]. - **Basis** - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 635 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 80 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan. - The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount is - 60 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount is - 28.51 US dollars/ton, up 3.85 US dollars. The basis of alumina is 256 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina** - The alumina production is 786.50 million tons, down 13.40%; the national alumina start - up rate is 84.37%, down 0.92%; the capacity utilization rate is 86.51%, down 0.45%. - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 730.23 million tons, up 25.92%; the supply - demand balance is 37.98 million tons, down 8.87 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap** - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan is 17,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Shandong, it remains unchanged at 16,700 yuan/ton. - China's import of aluminum scrap is 158,360.01 tons, up 2,945.61 tons; the export is 32.46 tons, down 36.08 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum** - The import of primary aluminum is 248,261.37 tons, up 4,462 tons; the export is 24,573.56 tons, down 4,396.36 tons. - The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 4,524.20 million tons, up 1 million tons; the start - up rate is 98.21%, down 0.03% [2]. - **Aluminum Products** - The aluminum product production is 569.40 million tons, down 20.60 million tons; the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 57.00 million tons, up 7.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Alloy and Related Products** - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 60.83 million tons, down 4.82 million tons; the export of aluminum alloy is 3.09 million tons, up 0.74 million tons. - The total built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 126.00 million tons, unchanged; the aluminum alloy production is 168.20 million tons, unchanged [2]. - **Other Industries** - The national real - estate climate index is 92.43, down 0.34. - The automobile production is 327.90 million vehicles, up 5.25 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 13.33%, down 0.28%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 11.71%, down 0.01%. - The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main - contract at - the - money IV is 10.88%, up 0.0082; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.65, up 0.0537 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50% - 3.75%, the third cut this year. It will start a short - term Treasury purchase program of about 40 billion US dollars per month from December 12. The Fed's dot - plot predicts one 25 - basis - point cut in 2026 and 2027 respectively [2]. - China's CPI in November increased by 0.7% year - on - year, the highest since March 2024; the core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year. The PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month for two consecutive months, and the year - on - year decline widened to 2.2% [2]. - The IMF expects China's economy to grow by 5.0% and 4.5% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, with the forecasts revised up by 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points compared with October [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the supply is tight due to restrictions on Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports and oil mills being shut down. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed for crushing and the weakening demand from aquaculture, along with the negative impact of domestic soybean auctions and the substitution advantage of soybean meal, have led to a weakening of demand. The futures price of rapeseed meal has been dragged down by the decline of US soybeans and has been in a weak and volatile state recently [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is also facing a complex situation. The increase in Canadian rapeseed production and the decline in exports have constrained the futures price. But the change in German bio - fuel policy has provided a substitution space for rapeseed oil, boosting its biodiesel consumption. Domestically, the supply of imported rapeseed is structurally tightened, and oil mills are mostly shut down, leading to a continuous inventory reduction of rapeseed oil, which supports its price. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed for crushing and the abundant supply of soybean oil have limited the demand for rapeseed oil to mainly rigid demand. The rapeseed oil price has rebounded from a low level due to the German biodiesel policy and is expected to maintain a short - term oscillating trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil was 9,599 yuan/ton, up 156 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal was 2,323 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of ICE rapeseed was 615.3 Canadian dollars/ton, down 18 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed was 5,487 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan [2]. - Spread and basis: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was 293 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal was 78 yuan/ton; the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 257 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract was 87 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan [2]. - Positions and warehouse receipts: The position of the rapeseed oil main contract was 76,367 lots, down 13,761 lots; the position of the rapeseed meal main contract was 590,971 lots, up 11,723 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil was - 4,175 lots, up 14,932 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed meal was - 75,885 lots, up 13,249 lots. The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3,490, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,700 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,410 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the average price of rapeseed oil was 9,818.75 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed was 7,688.67 yuan/ton, down 20.24 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the oil - meal ratio was 3.96, down 0.04 [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing was 8,590 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,680 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,060 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,160 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1,060 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 650 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast was 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production was 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume was 0 tons, down 115,300 tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 140,000 tons, down 20,000 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal was 220,600 tons, up 62,900 tons [2]. - Inventory and profit: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 0 tons, down 1,000 tons; the weekly opening rate of imported rapeseed was 0%, unchanged. The import rapeseed crushing profit was 523 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.8 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0.02 million tons, up 0.01 million tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 33.9 million tons, down 1.6 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 19.36 million tons, down 1.9 million tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 0.7 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 23.4 million tons, down 0.9 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil pickup volume was 0 tons, unchanged; the weekly rapeseed meal pickup volume was 0.45 million tons, down 0.67 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2,957 million tons, down 171.7 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly catering revenue in social consumer goods retail sales was 51.99 billion yuan, up 6.904 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Rapeseed meal options: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options of rapeseed meal was 17.03%, up 0.09%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options of rapeseed meal was 17.03%, up 0.1%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 10.46%, up 0.06%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 11.73%, up 0.02% [2]. - Rapeseed oil options: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options of rapeseed oil was 16.37%, up 2.78%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options of rapeseed oil was 16.37%, up 2.78%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 9.57%, down 0.14%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 14%, up 0.05% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On December 10 (Wednesday), ICE rapeseed futures fell for the ninth time in the past ten trading days, but the price remained above the low on Monday. The January rapeseed futures contract closed down 4.50 Canadian dollars at 615.40 Canadian dollars per ton; the March rapeseed futures contract fell 5 Canadian dollars to 626.80 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The US soybean is in the export season, with abundant short - term supply. The US still faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market. The market is also concerned about China's purchase of US soybeans, and the price of US soybeans has recently fallen from a high level [2]. - Statistics Canada reported that the national rapeseed production increased by 13.3% to 21.8 million tons, higher than the 20.03 million tons announced in September and the market expectation of 21.25 million tons. The export of Canadian rapeseed has decreased significantly this year, which has continued to constrain the futures price [3]. - The MPOB report showed that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of November increased by 13.04% to 2.84 million tons compared with the previous month, higher than the market estimate of 2.66 million tons. The export of palm oil in Malaysia in the first 10 days was still declining, and the export was still weak, which dragged down the palm oil price. However, the palm oil production in the producing areas will enter the off - season later, and the implementation of seasonal production reduction needs to be watched [3].