瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.12」 沪铜市场周报 供给小增需求谨慎，沪铜或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线震荡偏强，周线涨跌幅为+1.4%，振幅4.16%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价94080元/吨。 后市展望：国际方面，美联储12月议息：宣布在未来30天内购买400亿美元短债，在3张异见票中降息25个基点，声明措 辞新增"将考虑进一步调整利率的幅度和时机"，点阵图中值维持对明后两年各降息1次的预期。鲍威尔称可以等待并观 察经济如何发展，没人预期会加息，利率处于中性水平区间的上端，购债规模将在未来数月保持在高位。国内方面，统计 局：11月CPI同比上涨0.7%，环比下降0.1%；PPI同比下降2.2%，环比上涨0.1%。基本面原料端，铜精矿现货加工费指 数保持负值低位运行，矿紧预期将在较长的时期持续奏效于铜冶炼端，提供成本支撑。供给方面，冶炼副产品硫酸价格表 现仍较优，弥补冶 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2070 - 2170 in the short term [7]. - This week, the port methanol market oscillated within a range, while the inland methanol price declined weakly. The low - priced port supplies continuously flowed into and significantly impacted the inland market [8]. - Recently, the output loss of domestic methanol due to maintenance and production cuts is less than the output increase from restored production, resulting in an overall increase in production. The total inventory of domestic methanol producers may accumulate in the short term, and the port inventory has significantly decreased. The MTO industry's operating rate is expected to decline [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2070 and 2170 in the short term [7]. - Market review: The port methanol market oscillated within a range this week, with Jiangsu prices between 2060 - 2120 yuan/ton and Guangdong prices between 2040 - 2100 yuan/ton. The inland price declined weakly, with Ordos' northern line prices between 1980 - 2007 yuan/ton and Dongying's receiving prices between 2200 - 2223 yuan/ton. Low - priced port supplies impacted the inland market [8]. - Market outlook: Domestic methanol production increased. The total inventory of producers may accumulate in the short term, and the port inventory decreased significantly. The MTO industry's operating rate is expected to decline [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the main Zhengzhou methanol futures contract oscillated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 3.32% [12]. - Inter - delivery spread: As of December 12, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 32 [14]. - Position analysis: As of December 12, there were 8623 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, an increase of 1047 from last week [22]. Spot Market - Domestic prices: As of December 11, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2107.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.5 yuan/ton from last week. The mainstream price in Northwest China's Inner Mongolia area was 1972.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 135 yuan/ton, an increase of 52.5 yuan/ton from last week [27]. - Foreign prices: As of December 11, the CFR price at China's main ports was 246 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and China's main ports was 71 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton from last week [32]. - Basis: As of December 11, the Zhengzhou methanol basis was 33.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.5 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3. Industry Chain Analysis Upstream - Coal and gas prices: As of December 10, the market price of Qinhuangdao 5500 - calorie thermal coal was 705 yuan/ton, the same as last week. As of December 11, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.23 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 1.1 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [39]. Industry - Production and operating rate: As of December 11, China's methanol production was 2039705 tons, an increase of 16240 tons from last week. The plant capacity utilization rate was 89.81%, a month - on - month increase of 0.81% [42]. - Inventory: As of December 10, the inventory of sample methanol producers in China was 35.28 tons, a decrease of 0.87 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40%. The pending orders of sample enterprises were 20.75 tons, a decrease of 3.22 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 13.45%. The total port inventory was 123.44 tons, a decrease of 11.5 tons from the previous data [47]. - Imports and profits: In October 2025, China's methanol imports were 161.26 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.01%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative imports were 1127.93 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.10%. As of December 11, the methanol import profit was - 15.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.37 yuan/ton from last week [50]. Downstream - Operating rate: As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 90.20%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.68%. The MTO industry's operating rate declined due to plant maintenance [53]. - Profits: As of December 12, the domestic methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 833 yuan/ton, a decrease of 89 yuan/ton from last week [56]. 4. Options Market Analysis No relevant information provided.

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract declined, with a weekly drop of approximately 0.36%. The new sugar - making season is entering its peak, supply is increasing, and the spot price is weakening. Without positive drivers, the sugar price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the future [5]. - Future factors to watch include the domestic new sugar crushing situation and demand [6]. 3) Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.36% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: As of the week ending December 10, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased to 44 from 53 the previous week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped dropped to 1.5131 million tons from 1.826 million tons, a 17.14% decline. In the domestic market, the prices of processed sugar and beet sugar are relatively stable. With the arrival of new sugar from Guangxi in the sales areas and poor market transactions, competition among the three sugar sources has a negative impact on prices. As of now, 66 sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing in the 25/26 season, 5 fewer than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 537,500 tons, a decrease of 29,000 tons year - on - year. Four more mills are expected to start next week. In Yunnan, 26 sugar mills have started crushing, 9 more than last year, and more than half of the mills have begun operations [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Sugar Futures**: The price of the US Sugar March contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.27%. As of November 4, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 195,528 lots, an increase of 28,109 lots from the previous week. Long positions were 165,775 lots, up 1,384 lots, and short positions were 361,303 lots, an increase of 29,493 lots [12]. - **International Raw Sugar Spot Price**: This week, the international raw sugar spot price was 14.59 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.22 cents per pound from last week [16]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract declined this week, with a weekly drop of approximately 0.36%. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 63,969 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 611 [20][27]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures Spread**: The spread between the 5 - 9 contracts of Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 22 yuan/ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou sugar basis was + 246 yuan/ton [32]. - **Spot Market Price**: As of December 12, the new sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,460 yuan/ton, and the sugar price in Nanning was 5,400 yuan/ton [38]. - **Imported Sugar Cost and Profit**: This week, the estimated profit for in - quota Brazilian sugar was 1,380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit for out - of - quota Brazilian sugar was 128 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan/ton. The estimated profit for in - quota Thai sugar was 1,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53 yuan/ton; the estimated profit for out - of - quota Thai sugar was 64 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton [44]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Production Increase**: As of the end of October 2025, the total sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season in China was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [48]. - **Supply Side - Industrial Inventory**: As of August 2025, the domestic sugar industrial inventory was 116,230 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45,000 tons or 27.91%, and a year - on - year increase of 6,010 tons or 5.45% [51]. - **Supply Side - Imported Sugar Quantity**: In October 2025, China's sugar imports were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.62% and a month - on - month increase of 200,000 tons. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 3.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.12% [55]. - **Demand Side - Sugar Sales Rate**: As of the end of October 2025, the sugar mills in the 2024/25 sugar - making season had all stopped crushing. The total sugar production in this season was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [61]. - **Demand Side - Finished Sugar and Soft Drink Production**: In October 2025, China's monthly finished sugar production was 883,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.1%. The monthly soft drink production was 10.962 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3% [65]. 3.4 Option and Stock - Related Markets - **Option Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for sugar this week is presented, but no specific value is mentioned in the text [66]. - **Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry**: A chart of the price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is provided, but no specific analysis or value is given in the text [70].

Report Title - "2025.12.12 Weekly Report on Shanghai Tin Market: Macroeconomic Improvement Boosts Sentiment, Anticipating Strong Adjustment in Tin Prices" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai tin market is expected to undergo a short - term strong adjustment. Attention should be paid to the support at MA5 and the resistance at the 345,000 level [5] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main Shanghai tin contract continued to rise significantly, with a weekly increase of 4.88% and an amplitude of 8.76%. The closing price of the main contract was 333,000 yuan/ton [5] - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - level**: The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that a moderately loose monetary policy will continue, and various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be used flexibly and efficiently. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market, resolve local government debt risks, and boost consumption [5] - **Fundamental - level**: - **Supply**: Tin ore imports in China are still relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees remain low. Although the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply, the overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level. Refined tin production is expected to be limited, and imports are likely to decline [5] - **Demand**: Downstream buyers show purchasing interest when tin prices decline, but rising prices suppress transactions. Inventory has increased slightly [5] - **Technical - level**: There is a significant increase in trading volume and open interest, and the market sentiment is bullish [5] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: As of December 12, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 332,720 yuan/ton, up 4.98% from December 5. As of December 11, the closing price of LME tin was 41,880 US dollars/ton, up 3.31% from December 5. The basis of Shanghai tin was 0 yuan/ton, down from 150 yuan/ton last week [10] - **Ratio Changes**: As of December 12, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.86, an increase of 0.16 from December 5. As of December 11, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 7.61, a decrease of 0.17 from December 4 [14] - **Open Interest**: As of December 12, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 1960 lots, an increase of 2168 lots from December 8. The open interest of Shanghai tin was 118,433 lots, an increase of 10,033 lots or 9.26% from December 5 [19] 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - side**: - **Import and Production**: In October 2025, the import of tin ore and concentrates was 11,632.30 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.36%. From January to October, the cumulative import was 103,020.65 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.54%. The refined tin production in October was 15,618 tons, and the cumulative production from January to October was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [25][26] - **Processing Fees**: On December 12, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, and that for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from December 11 [31] - **Import Profit and Loss**: As of December 11, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was - 2,471.06 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,186.86 yuan/ton from December 5. In October, the import volume of refined tin was 526.12 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 58.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 82.75% [34][35] - **Inventory**: As of December 11, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 3,695 tons, an increase of 520 tons or 16.38% from December 4. As of December 12, the inventory of Shanghai tin was 7,391 tons, an increase of 526 tons or 7.66% from last week [43] - **Demand - side**: - **Semiconductor Index**: On December 11, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,411.48, an increase of 2.71% from December 4 [46] - **Integrated Circuit Output**: From January to October 2025, the integrated circuit output was 386.6 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 9.52% [47] - **Tin - Plated Sheet**: As of October 2025, the tin - plated sheet production was 110,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10%. The export volume was 222,589.82 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.63% [50]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.12」 沪锌市场周报 宏观改善炼厂减产 预计锌价强势调整 研究员： 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 行情回顾：本周沪锌主力大幅上涨，周线涨跌幅为+1.29%，振幅3.48%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价23605 元/吨。 行情展望：宏观面，中央经济工作会议指出，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准降息等 多种政策工具，着力稳定房地产市场，积极有序化解地方政府债务风险，深入实施提振消费专项行动，清 理消费领域不合理限制措施。基本面，上游锌矿进口量下滑，因内外比价继续走差，中国进口锌精矿亏损 扩大；国内炼厂原料冬季储备已经启动，更倾向采购国产锌精矿，不过炼厂采购国产矿竞争加大，国内外 加工费均明显下跌，国内炼厂利润收缩，预计产量将明显下降。同时海外供应紧张局面持续，近期沪伦比 值维持低位，国内进口亏损，且出口窗口保持打开，预计未来将转为净出口局面，缓解国内供应压力。需 ...

目录 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.12」 国债期货周报 宽货币预期升温，超长债仍待企稳 研究员 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号 F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证号 Z0020723 关 注 我 们 获取更多资讯 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 政策及监管：1、工信息部办、中国人民银行发布《关于用好绿色金融政策支持绿色工厂建设的通知》。其中提到，拓宽直接融资渠道。支持 符合条件的企业发行绿色债券和转型债券，募集资金加大绿色工厂建设投入，鼓励金融机构做好绿色债券发行承销和投资等配套服务；2、中 央经济工作会议指出，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准 降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域；3、 商务部将出台加快零售业创新发展的意见，通过统筹规划、合理布局，提升商品和服务质量，协同优化存量和增量，推动线上线下公平竞争 等，实现新供给、新需求的良性互动。 基本面：1、国内:1）11月份我国制造业PMI为49.2%，比上 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The BR2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,300 - 11,000 yuan in the short - term [8]. - The rising transaction center of butadiene in the spot market provides some support for the price of butadiene rubber. With the influence of external news such as the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia and the US interest rate cut in the natural rubber market, the low - price offer center of the butadiene market has slowly moved up [9]. - Most previously shut - down butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and domestic production has recovered. Although the inventory of some previously shut - down production enterprises has decreased significantly, most production enterprises still face high shipment pressure. The inventory of production enterprises has decreased slightly, while the inventory of trading enterprises has increased slightly. In the short term, the inventory of both production and trading enterprises is expected to increase slightly [9]. - The resumption of production by previously shut - down tire enterprises has led to a week - on - week increase in the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises. However, as the industry enters the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises is slow, and most enterprises are in a state of flexible production control, which limits the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. With the continuous increase in finished product inventory, some enterprises may shut down or reduce production in the future [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The BR2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,300 - 11,000 yuan in the short - term [8]. - Market review: The rising transaction center of butadiene in the spot market supports the price of butadiene rubber. With external news, the low - price offer center of the butadiene market has moved up. The price of butadiene rubber in Shandong market has slightly increased, with the spot price ranging from 10,000 to 10,750 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 is 10,600 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies is 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton [9]. - Market outlook: Production capacity has recovered, production enterprise inventory has decreased slightly, trading enterprise inventory has increased slightly, and both are expected to increase slightly in the short term. The demand side has a week - on - week increase in capacity utilization rate, but the increase is limited, and some enterprises may shut down or reduce production in the future [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - Price trend: The main contract price of synthetic rubber futures fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 2.73% [13]. - Position analysis: No specific analysis content provided. - Inter - period spread: As of December 12, the 1 - 2 spread of butadiene rubber was - 30 [20]. - Warehouse receipts: As of December 12, the warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber were 4,560 tons, an increase of 1,220 tons from last week [23]. Spot Market - Spot price: As of December 11, the price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 in Shandong market was 10,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - Basis: As of December 11, the basis of butadiene rubber was - 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton from last week [28]. 3.3 Industry Situation Upstream - Naphtha and ethylene prices: As of December 11, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 554.25 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 9.5 US dollars/ton from last week. The CIF mid - price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 745 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton from last week [31]. - Butadiene capacity utilization rate and port inventory: As of December 12, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 71.17%, an increase of 0.77% from last week. The port inventory of butadiene was 35,900 tons, a decrease of 5,200 tons from last week [34]. Industry - Production and capacity utilization rate: In November 2025, the domestic production of butadiene rubber was 130,100 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons from the previous month. As of December 11, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 70.69%, a decrease of 2.84% from last week [37]. - Production profit: As of December 11, the domestic production profit of butadiene rubber was 349 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton from last week [40]. - Inventory: As of December 12, the domestic social inventory of butadiene rubber was 31,950 tons, a decrease of 380 tons from last week. The manufacturer inventory was 26,500 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from last week, and the trader inventory was 5,450 tons, an increase of 220 tons from last week [44]. Downstream - Tire capacity utilization rate: As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a week - on - week increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a week - on - week increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points [47]. - Tire export volume: In October 2025, China's tire export volume was 653,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 6.79%. From January to October, the cumulative tire export volume was 7.0438 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.68%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 225,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.82%. The cumulative export volume from January to October was 2.7266 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.08%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 398,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.85%. The cumulative export volume from January to October was 4.0265 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.53% [50]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis No relevant information provided.

瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.12.12」 「 期货市场情况」 尿素市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场窄幅波动，截止本周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂至1660-1700元/吨， 均价环比持平。尿素市场窄幅松动，尿素工厂暂时有订单支撑，上下游暂时僵持为主。尿素市场 交投气氛走低，成交重心小幅下移。 行情展望：部分前期检修装置恢复，带动国内尿素产量小幅增加，下周预计2家企业装置计划停车， 1家停车企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到企业的短时故障，产量变动幅度预计有限。进入12月份之 后储备需求有所放缓，但短期仍有补仓需求。复合肥工业对尿素需求较为坚挺，企业继续排产冬 储肥，复合肥产能利用率预计稳中有升。目前尿素分批进行港口发运，部分企业发运进行收尾阶 段。工业复合肥对尿素的刚需推进、储备需求的适当补仓，以及部分企业出口订单的兑现，助推 本周尿素工厂库存继续下降。短期工业复合肥开工较高，持续需求推进，部分 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market was affected by external factors, with rubber prices first falling and then rising. Imported rubber market offer prices declined, and domestic natural rubber spot offers adjusted with the market. The trading atmosphere was average, and real - deal prices weakened [5]. - The raw material supply in domestic Yunnan has stopped, and prices are stable with some still at low levels. In Hainan, fresh latex dry content has declined due to rain, and overall raw material output is seasonally decreasing. Qingdao port inventories continue to accumulate, but the rate of accumulation has narrowed. Tire companies are restocking as needed, and the overall procurement sentiment has slightly improved [5]. - The production capacity utilization rate of domestic tire companies has increased this week, but it is in the seasonal off - season, with slow sales and flexible production control. As finished product inventories continue to rise, some companies may conduct maintenance or reduce production in the future [5]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14950 - 15350, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12000 - 12650 [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: Affected by external factors, rubber prices first fell and then rose. Imported rubber offer prices dropped, and domestic spot offers adjusted. Trading was average, and real - deal prices weakened [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Yunnan has stopped production, and Hainan's raw material output is decreasing. Qingdao port inventories are still accumulating, but the rate has slowed. Tire companies' procurement sentiment has slightly improved. Tire production capacity utilization has increased, but sales are slow, and inventories are rising [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14950 - 15350, and the nr2602 contract between 12000 - 12650 [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose with a weekly increase of 1.1%, and the 20 - number rubber main contract price rose with a weekly increase of 2.41% [8]. - As of December 12, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was 15, and the spread between 20 - number rubber 1 - 2 was - 30 [19]. - As of December 12, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 56990 tons, an increase of 11460 tons from last week; 20 - number rubber warehouse receipts were 59573 tons, an increase of 2218 tons from last week [24]. - **Spot Market** - As of December 11, the state - owned whole latex was reported at 14850 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - As of December 11, the 20 - number rubber basis was 613 yuan/ton, a decrease of 177 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 705 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from last week [34]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - As of December 12, the field glue in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 55.25 (+0.25) Thai baht/kg; cup glue was 49.45 (+1.11) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 53.8 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10.6 US dollars/ton from last week [37]. - As of December 11, the price of fresh latex in Hainan was 14300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; Yunnan was in the off - season [40]. - **Import** - In October 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 51.08 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 522.81 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [43]. - **Inventory** - As of December 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 48.87 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.72 tons or 1.49%. Bonded area inventory was 7.39 tons, an increase of 2.08%; general trade inventory was 41.48 tons, an increase of 1.38% [46]. - **Downstream** - As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a month - on - month increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points [49]. - In October 2025, China's tire exports were 65.31 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.05 and a year - on - year decrease of 6.79%. From January to October, the cumulative export volume was 704.38 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.68% [52]. - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 6% and a year - on - year increase of about 46%. From January to November, the cumulative sales exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [55]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis There is no content about option market analysis in the report.

「2025.12.12」 棉花（纱）市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信客 服 号 瑞达期货研究院 未来交易提示： 1、关注外棉价格变化2、需求3、库存情况 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周郑棉主力2601合约价格上涨，周度涨幅约0.62%。 行情展望：据美国农业部(USDA)报告显示，11月13日止当周，2025/26年度美国陆 地棉出口销售净增18.76万包，较前周减少36%，较前四周均值增加10%。2025/26 年度美国陆地棉出口装运量11.32万包，较前周减少17%，较前4周平均水平减少 27%。当周美国棉花出口签约量、装运量均减少。国内市场：供应端，轧花厂皮棉 加工量持续增加，商业库存呈现季节性增长态势。进口方面，进口棉港口基本进多 出少。据Mysteel调研显示，截止至12月11日，进口棉主要港口库存连续第10周增加， 总库存39.03万吨，刷新5个月高点。需求端，下游纺企旺季采购结束，但中高支纱 线订单表现稳定，多选择刚需补货 ...