1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The HC2601 contract of hot - rolled coils may fluctuate strongly. The Fed's expected rate cut in December and China's governance of disorderly corporate price competition on the macro - front, along with increased hot - rolled coil production, slightly reduced but resilient terminal demand, and positive macro expectations, support steel prices. Attention should be paid to rhythm and risk control [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary 3.1.1. Market Review - As of November 28, the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3302 yuan/ton (+32), and the spot price of Hangzhou Liantie hot - rolled coils was 3320 yuan/ton (+0). - Hot - rolled coil production increased to 319.01 million tons (+3), a year - on - year increase of 12.92 million tons. - Apparent demand declined. The current period's apparent demand was 320.22 million tons (-4.2), a year - on - year increase of 3.13 million tons. - Factory inventory remained flat, and social inventory decreased. The total inventory was 400.9 million tons (-1.21), a year - on - year increase of 95.18 million tons. - The steel mill profitability rate was 35.06%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 16.89 percentage points from last year [5]. 3.1.2. Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, market expectations for the December meeting fluctuate between "rate cut" and "maintain unchanged". After Williams and Waller supported a rate cut, the market probability of a rate cut has risen to about 80%. Domestically, the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on cost determination for disorderly price competition. - **Supply - demand aspect**: The weekly production of hot - rolled coils continued to increase, with the capacity utilization rate rising to 81.49%, higher than the same period last year. Terminal demand slightly declined, but the apparent demand remained at 3.2 million tons, higher than the same period last year, and inventory decreased. - **Cost aspect**: Although the fundamentals of iron ore are generally in a state of loose supply, due to positive macro expectations, ore prices remain strong. Coking coal and coke continue to weaken. - **Technical aspect**: The HC2601 contract fluctuated strongly, with the daily K - line above multiple moving averages and breaking through the 3300 mark. The MACD indicator shows that DIFF and DEA are running near the 0 axis, and the red column is stable [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1. Futures Price - This week, the HC2601 contract was range - bound. The price of the HC2601 contract was stronger than that of the HC2605 contract. On the 28th, the price difference was 14 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2.2. Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions - On November 28, the hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 141,932 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,156 tons. - On November 28, the net position of the top 20 in the hot - rolled coil futures contract was a net short position of 63,178 contracts, an increase of 3,385 contracts from the previous week [19]. 3.2.3. Spot Price - On November 28, the spot price of 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3320 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3318 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan/ton. - This week, the spot price of hot - rolled coils was weaker than the futures price. On the 28th, the basis was 18 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 32 yuan/ton [26]. 3.3. Upstream Market Conditions 3.3.1. Furnace Charge Prices - On November 28, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden iron ore powder at Qingdao Port was 843 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/dry ton. - On November 28, the spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1760 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton [31]. 3.3.2. Ore Arrival and Shipment - From November 17 to 23, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 32.784 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.38 billion tons. The shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 26.374 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.713 billion tons. - From November 17 to 23, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 29.395 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.696 billion tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 28.171 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.482 billion tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 14.383 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.97 billion tons [37]. 3.3.3. Iron Ore Port Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 159.0122 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.6637 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.4406 million tons, an increase of 0.0067 million tons. - On November 27, the billet inventory in Tangshan, Hebei was 1.1476 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0134 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.2478 million tons [41]. 3.3.4. Coking Plant Conditions - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 72.02%, an increase of 0.92%. The daily coke output was 504,000 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons. The coke inventory was 452,100 tons, an increase of 177,000 tons. The total coking coal inventory was 8.6093 million tons, a decrease of 0.2829 million tons. The available days of coking coal were 12.8 days, a decrease of 0.6 days [45]. 3.4. Industry Conditions 3.4.1. Supply - side: Steel Export and Production - In October 2025, China's crude steel production was 72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%. From January to October, China's crude steel production was 817.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. - In October 2025, China's steel exports were 9.782 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.5%; imports were 503,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. From January to October, the cumulative steel exports were 97.737 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%; the cumulative imports were 5.041 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9% [48]. 3.4.2. Supply - side: Hot - Rolled Coil Production - On November 28, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.09%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.53 percentage points. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 87.98%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.60 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.18 percentage points. The daily average pig iron output was 2.3468 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.016 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0081 million tons. - On November 27, the weekly production of hot - rolled coils of 37 hot - rolled coil production enterprises was 3.1901 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from last week and an increase of 0.1295 million tons from the same period last year [52]. 3.4.3. Supply - side: Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory - On November 27, the in - factory inventory of hot - rolled coils of 37 hot - rolled coil production enterprises was 780,200 tons, an increase of 0 tons from last week and a year - on - year decrease of 3,700 tons. The social inventory of 33 major cities was 3.2288 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.9555 million tons. The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 4.009 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.9518 million tons [57]. 3.5. Downstream Conditions 3.5.1. Automobile Industry - From January to October 2025, automobile production and sales were 24.466 million and 24.624 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% and 2.7% respectively. From January to October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 9.779 million and 9.75 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 33% and 33.9% respectively. The sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 39.6% of the total sales of new vehicles [60]. 3.5.2. Home Appliance Industry - From January to October 2025, the cumulative production of household air conditioners was 230.344 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3%. The production of household refrigerators was 89.959 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. The production of household washing machines was 101.078 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.4% [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn futures fluctuated and rose this week. The international corn market price is under pressure, but the domestic corn market is supported by factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, tight transportation capacity, increased processing consumption, and strong procurement by enterprises. The corn futures price is generally strong and volatile, and investors should be cautious about chasing up [6]. - Corn starch futures also oscillated and closed higher. Although the supply - side pressure increases due to sufficient raw material supply and rising industry operating rates, the downstream demand is good, inventory has decreased, and the starch futures price has risen in sync with the corn market, with caution advised for chasing up [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights 3.1.1. Corn - **Market Review**: The main 2601 contract of corn futures closed at 2,244 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton from last week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: International supply pressure is high, while in the domestic market, factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, tight transportation, and increased consumption support the price. The futures price is strong and volatile, and cautious chasing is recommended [6]. 3.1.2. Corn Starch - **Market Review**: The main 2601 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2,566 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton from last week [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply - side pressure increases, but downstream demand is good, inventory has decreased, and the futures price has risen in sync with the corn market, with caution advised for chasing up [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Price Trends and Position Changes - Corn futures' January contract oscillated and closed higher, with a total position of 959,620 hands, an increase of 10,180 hands from last week. Corn starch futures' January contract also oscillated and closed higher, with a total position of 238,140 hands, an increase of 1,212 hands from last week [14]. 3.2.2. Net Positions of the Top Twenty - The net position of the top twenty in corn futures this week was - 202,716, compared with - 108,473 last week, indicating an increase in net short positions. The net position of the top twenty in starch futures was - 33,782, compared with - 43,094 last week, showing a slight decrease in net short positions [20]. 3.2.3. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 60,215, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 0 [24]. 3.2.4. Spot Prices and Basis Trends - As of November 27, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,325.29 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active January contract of corn and the spot average price was + 81 yuan/ton [32]. - The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,650 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,800 yuan/ton, with a slight increase this week. The basis between the January contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 84 yuan/ton [36]. 3.2.5. Inter - month Spread Changes - The 1 - 3 spread of corn was + 5 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 1 - 3 spread of starch was - 9 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [42]. 3.2.6. Futures Spread Changes - The spread between the January contracts of starch and corn was 322 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared with last week [51]. 3.2.7. Substitute Spread Changes - As of November 27, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,506.44 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,325.29 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 181.15 yuan/ton. In the 48th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 601 yuan/ton, an increase of 147 yuan/ton compared with last week [56]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1. Corn - **Supply Side**: - As of November 21, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 28.4 tons, an increase of 1.10 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 31.5 tons, a decrease of 4.00 tons from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 115.6 tons, a decrease of 1.4 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume from the four northern ports was 74.4 tons, an increase of 34.40 tons week - on - week [46]. - As of November 27, the overall progress of domestic corn sales was 30%, a 3% increase from November 20, and a 3% increase compared with the same period last year [58]. - In October 2025, China's corn import volume was 35.90 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.06% and a month - on - month increase of 30.25 tons [62]. - As of November 27, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 27.83 days, an increase of 1.60 days from last week, a week - on - week increase of 6.10%, but a year - on - year decrease of 4.72% [66]. - **Demand Side**: - At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.80 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 2.9%. The inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7% and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.2% [70]. - As of November 21, 2025, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 135.9 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets was - 234.63 yuan/head [74]. - As of November 27, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 3 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 500 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 579 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 252 yuan/ton [79]. 3.3.2. Corn Starch - **Supply Side**: - As of November 26, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 269.8 tons, a decrease of 1.06% [84]. - From November 20 to November 26, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 62.46 tons, an increase of 1.22 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 32.34 tons, an increase of 0.84 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 61.38%, an increase of 1.59% from last week. As of November 26, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 106.9 tons, a decrease of 4.00 tons from last week, a weekly decrease of 3.61%, a monthly decrease of 5.23%, and a year - on - year increase of 19.04% [88]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis - As of November 28, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2601 contract of corn was 11.05%, a rebound of 2.63% from 8.42% last week. The implied volatility rebounded significantly this week and was at a relatively high level compared with the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [91].

瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.11.28」 甲醇市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议： MA2601合约短线预计在2080-2170区间波动。 「 期货市场情况」 甲醇期货价格走势 郑州甲醇期货价格走势 • 本周郑州甲醇主力合约价格震荡收涨，当周主力合约期价+6.54%。 4 来源：博易大师 「 期货市场情况」 3 行情回顾：本周港口甲醇市场止跌反弹，其中江苏价格波动区间在1990-2110元/吨，广东价格波 动在1980-2080元/吨。内地甲醇价格上涨，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1985-1990元/ 吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间2155-2175元/吨。港口价格走高且套利内地空间收窄，跌价内地 供需矛盾不大影响，企业出货良好，下游买涨心态浓厚。 行情展望：近期国内甲醇检修、减产涉及产能损失量少于恢复涉及产能产出量，整体产量增加。 本周部分预售下周期货量，叠加烯烃企业外采量略缩，内地 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai nickel will rebound and adjust in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 119,000 yuan. The stainless - steel futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, facing the pressure of MA20 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary 3.1.1. Shanghai Nickel - **Weekly Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel rebounded from a low level, with a weekly increase of +2.66% and an amplitude of 3.21%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 117,080 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomically, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost determination of disorderly price competition. In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, while the manufacturing and power sectors had relatively rapid growth in the first 10 months. Fundamentally, the rainy season in the Philippines has led to a downward trend in nickel ore imports. The RKAB approval in Indonesia and possible changes in export policies are potential variables, but they have limited impact on supply recently. On the smelting side, the production of nickel iron in Indonesia remains at a high level, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. Multiple new refined nickel projects in China and Indonesia have been put into operation one after another. Although the shortage of intermediate raw materials and profit losses have led to partial production cuts, the production is still at a high level, and the supply pressure in the pure nickel market is relatively large. On the demand side, the price of nickel iron, the raw material for stainless steel, has decreased, the profits of steel mills have improved, and the production volume is expected to be at a high level. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand. The domestic nickel inventory continues to increase, the market mainly purchases on demand, and the spot premium has increased. The LME inventory overseas also shows an increasing trend. Technically, the position is stable while the price is adjusting, and the divergence between long and short positions has increased [7]. 3.1.2. Stainless Steel - **Weekly Review**: This week, stainless steel rebounded from a low level, with a weekly increase of +0.61% and an amplitude of 1.71%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 12,365 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: On the raw material side, the Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, and the grade of nickel ore is decreasing. The raw material inventory of domestic nickel - iron plants is tightening. However, the production of nickel iron in Indonesia remains at a high level, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. Recently, the price of nickel iron has decreased significantly, and the raw material cost has decreased. On the supply side, the production profits of stainless - steel plants have improved. Although the traditional peak demand season has passed, the actual decline in production is expected to be limited, and the supply pressure has increased. On the demand side, downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the export volume of stainless steel is showing a downward trend. The impact of the previous export squeeze is beginning to appear. The market's purchasing willingness is not high, and the overall inquiry and trading performance are average. Therefore, the social inventory of stainless steel across the country shows a narrow increase. Technically, the position has decreased, the price is under pressure, and the short - selling atmosphere has weakened [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1. Price Trends - As of November 28, the average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) nationwide was 885 yuan/nickel, unchanged from last week. The closing price of Shanghai nickel was 117,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,030 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 12,365 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton from last week [13]. 3.2.2. Basis Trends - As of November 28, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 119,500 yuan/ton, with a basis of 2,420 yuan/ton; the closing price of stainless steel was 13,200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 835 yuan/ton [18]. 3.2.3. Price Ratio Trends - As of November 28, the price ratio of Shanghai nickel to stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 9.47, an increase of 0.19 from last week; the price ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.61 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.06 from last week [25]. 3.2.4. Net Position Trends - As of November 28, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel was - 25,372 lots, a decrease of 1,681 lots from November 24, 2025. The net position of the top 20 in stainless steel was - 11,728 lots, a decrease of 2,567 lots from November 24, 2025 [31]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1. Supply Side - **Nickel Ore and Production Profit**: As of November 21, the nickel ore inventory in major domestic ports was 14.9976 million tons, a decrease of 97,300 tons from last week. As of November 28, the production profit of electrowinning nickel was 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,550 yuan/ton from last week [37][38]. - **Domestic Production and Import**: In September 2025, the production of electrolytic nickel was 36,795 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.25%. In October 2025, the import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 9,939.649 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65.21%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 197,125.63 tons, a year - on - year increase of 173.13% [43]. - **Inventory**: As of November 28, the inventory of Shanghai nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 40,782 tons, an increase of 4,031 tons from last week. The LME nickel inventory was 255,450 tons, an increase of 4,014 tons from last week [49][50]. 3.3.2. Demand Side - **Stainless Steel Production and Export**: In October 2025, the total production of stainless crude steel was 3.5138 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.54%. Among them, the production of 400 - series stainless steel was 659,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.57%; the production of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%; the production of 200 - series stainless steel was 1.054 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.44%. The import volume of stainless steel was 121,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,000 tons; the export volume was 300,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 48,200 tons. From January to October, the cumulative net import volume was - 2.2457 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 178,700 tons [54]. - **Regional Inventory**: As of November 28, the stainless - steel inventory in Foshan was 334,940 tons, an increase of 2,477 tons from last week; the inventory in Wuxi was 553,664 tons, an increase of 7,131 tons from last week [59]. - **Production Profit**: As of November 28, the production profit of stainless steel was - 1 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton from last week [64]. - **Related Industries**: From January to October 2025, the newly started area of housing was 490.6139 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.8%; the completed area of housing was 348.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9%; real estate development investment was 735.627 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. In October 2025, the production of air conditioners was 14.204 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 12.33%; the production of household refrigerators was 8.788 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.04%; the production of household washing machines was 11.035 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.07%; the production of freezers was 2.153 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.91%. In October 2025, the production of new energy vehicles in China was 3.359 million units, a year - on - year increase of 36.3%; the sales volume was 3.322 million units, a year - on - year increase of 26.9%. The production of excavators was 30,880 units, a year - on - year increase of 13%; the production of large and medium - sized tractors was 21,903 units, a year - on - year increase of 5.47%; the production of small tractors was 9,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 25% [68][73].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the zinc market are mixed, with short - term support at the bottom. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the range of 22,300 - 22,600 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated and adjusted, with a weekly increase of 0.13% and an amplitude of 1.43%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 22,425 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - level**: The Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost determination of disorderly price competition. In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, while the manufacturing and power sectors grew rapidly in the first 10 months [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Upstream, the import volume of zinc ore declined, and the loss of importing zinc concentrates in China widened. Domestic smelters started winter raw material reserves and preferred domestic zinc concentrates, leading to a significant drop in processing fees and a contraction in smelter profits. Overseas supply remained tight, and the export window was open. On the demand side, the downstream market was entering the off - season, with the real estate sector dragging down, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors weakening, while the automotive sector had some bright spots. Downstream buyers purchased on demand at low prices [7]. - **Technical - level**: The position decreased while the price adjusted, and both long and short positions were cautious. Attention should be paid to the support of MA60 [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Fluctuation**: As of November 28, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai zinc was 22,425 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.13%) from November 21, 2025. As of November 27, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 3,022 US dollars/ton, up 18.5 US dollars/ton (0.62%) from November 21, 2025 [10]. - **Net Position of Top 20 in Shanghai Zinc**: As of November 28, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 8,558 lots, an increase of 1,085 lots from November 21, 2025. The position volume of Shanghai zinc was 188,919 lots, a decrease of 6,325 lots (3.24%) from November 21, 2025 [14]. - **Price Spreads**: As of November 28, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 815 yuan/ton, a decrease of 240 yuan/ton from November 21, 2025. The lead - zinc futures spread was 5,335 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan/ton from November 21, 2025 [18]. - **Spot Premiums**: As of November 28, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingots was 22,360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton (0.53%) from November 21, 2025. The spot premium was 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of November 27, 2025, the spread between the near - month and 3 - month LME zinc was 165.44 US dollars/ton, an increase of 30.69 US dollars/ton from November 20, 2025 [24]. - **Inventory**: As of November 27, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 50,800 tons, an increase of 4,725 tons (10.26%) from November 20, 2025. As of November 28, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventory was 95,916 tons, a decrease of 4,431 tons (4.42%) from the previous week. As of November 27, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 140,600 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons (11.9%) from November 20, 2025 [27]. 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream - Zinc Ore**: In September 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.0666 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.29% and a year - on - year increase of 6.15%. In October 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 340,863.41 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.48% and a year - on - year increase of 3.28% [33][34]. - **Supply - End - Global Refined Zinc**: According to WBMS, the global refined zinc market was in short supply. In September 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1952 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 85,800 tons (7.73%); the consumption was 1.1749 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13,900 tons (1.2%); and there was a surplus of 20,300 tons, compared with a deficit of 51,600 tons in the same period last year [35][39]. - **Supply - End - Refined Zinc Production**: In October 2025, the zinc output in China was 665,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.7%. From January to October, the cumulative zinc output was 6.184 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5% [43]. - **Supply - End - Refined Zinc Export**: In October 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 18,836.76 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 67.39%; the export volume was 8,518.67 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3824.82% [46]. - **Downstream - Galvanized Sheets**: From January to October 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 919,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.85%. In October 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 23,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.74%; the export volume was 328,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.57% [49][50]. - **Downstream - Real Estate**: From January to October 2025, the new housing construction area was 490.6139 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.87%; the housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.31%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 7.885278 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.7%, among which personal mortgage loans were 1.0834 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.8% [55][56]. - **Downstream - Infrastructure**: From January to October 2025, the infrastructure investment increased by 1.51% year - on - year [62]. - **Downstream - Home Appliances**: In October 2025, the refrigerator output was 8.788 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 6%. From January to October, the cumulative refrigerator output was 89.959 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In October 2025, the air - conditioner output was 14.204 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%. From January to October, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 230.344 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3% [64]. - **Downstream - Automobiles**: In October 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 3,322,094 units, a year - on - year increase of 8.82%; the output was 3,358,716 units, a year - on - year increase of 12.09% [68].

瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.11.28」 「 周度要点小结」 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 3 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场窄幅波动。截止本周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂至1600-1640元/吨， 均价环比上涨5元/吨。短时工厂将挺价为主，行情暂时僵持观望，不排除成交重心继续小幅上移。 行情展望：部分装置检修使得国内尿素产量小幅下降，下周预计4家企业装置计划停车、4家停车 企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到企业的短时故障，产量预计小幅波动。近日东北储备需求采购较 为集中，但随着前期适当的补充，采购量或有所放缓。复合肥开工环比提升，企业陆续排产冬储 肥，预计短期复合肥产能利用率稳中有升。随着新一批配额的落地，出口需求逐渐增量。近期因 储备需求的继续推进，复合肥等下游终端补仓影响，以东北、华北为主要区域企业出货加快，尿 素企业库存继续下降，考虑到储备需求推进以及部分出口发运预期，短期尿素库存仍有小幅去库 趋势。 策略建议： UR2601合约短线预计在1650-1700区间波动。 「 期货市场情况」 目录 1、 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11.28」 沪铜市场周报 需求淡季预期向好，沪铜或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线震荡偏强，周线涨跌幅为+2.07%，振幅2.19%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价87430元/吨。 后市展望：基本面原料端，铜精矿加工费仍运行于负值区间，原料供给持续紧张，对铜价成本支撑逻辑仍在。供给方面， 经历前期集中检修后，冶炼产能或再度释放，但原料端铜精矿、废铜供应紧张，对产能将有一定限制，故国内精铜供给量 仅小幅度回升。需求方面，消费淡季影响逐步显现，加之铜价偏高位运行，对下游消费有一定抑制，在此背景下，下游采 买情绪或将偏向谨慎，多采取刚需补货策略。库存方面，社会库存整体保持中低水位运行，但由于消费淡季的影响，或有 一定库存积累。应用消费方面，国内电力基础设施临近年末赶工，加之新能源汽车行业的年终冲量，在一定程度上为需求 进行托底。总体来看，沪铜基本面或处于供给小幅回升、需求受淡季影响略收 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market had significant long - short divergence, and rubber prices fluctuated. The import rubber market was mainly for traders to roll and exchange positions. The far - month Thai mixed rubber weakened again after the buying volume decreased due to the positive spread arbitrage. The futures market continued to fluctuate, and the spot quotes of domestic natural rubber adjusted slightly within the range following the market. The willingness of holders to quote was average, and the terminal buyers restocked in moderation at low prices, with light actual transactions [8]. - In the near future, raw materials in Yunnan's production areas were mostly stable with relatively sufficient supplies. In Hainan's production areas, the weather was okay, but yellowing and leaf - falling phenomena appeared in the central and eastern regions, which restricted the overall raw material output. Local processing plants faced high production costs and mainly purchased raw materials as needed. Recently, the cumulative inventory increase at Qingdao Port has expanded month - on - month, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation. Overseas shipments arriving at the port and entering the warehouse remained at a high level, but downstream enterprises were mainly in a wait - and - see mood and had low inventory - building willingness, which led to a large increase in the total inventory at Qingdao Port [8]. - In terms of demand, some semi - steel tire enterprises carried out maintenance this week, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. The full - steel tire enterprises that had been under maintenance resumed work, and the capacity utilization rate recovered. Next week, as the start - up of maintenance enterprises gradually returns to the normal level, it will drive the overall capacity utilization rate to recover, but some enterprises have maintenance arrangements at the end of this month and the beginning of next month, which will limit the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate [8]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15000 - 15700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12200 - 12700 in the short term [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market had long - short divergence this week, with rubber prices fluctuating. The import rubber market focused on position rolling and exchanging. The far - month Thai mixed rubber weakened. The futures market was volatile, and the spot quotes of domestic natural rubber adjusted slightly. The trading volume was light [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Yunnan's raw materials were stable, while Hainan's output was restricted. Qingdao Port's inventory increased significantly. Some semi - steel tire enterprises had maintenance this week, and full - steel tire enterprises resumed work. Next week, the capacity utilization rate will recover but be limited by future maintenance plans [8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15000 - 15700, and the nr2601 contract between 12200 - 12700 in the short term [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated and closed up, with a weekly increase of 1.12%. The main contract price of 20 - rubber fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decrease of 0.08% [11]. - **Spread**: As of November 28th, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was - 35, and the spread between 20 - rubber 1 - 2 was - 15 [23]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 28th, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 41400 tons, an increase of 1800 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 51307 tons, an increase of 1108 tons from last week [29]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of November 27th, the state - owned whole latex was reported at 14850 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [33]. - **20 - Rubber Basis and Non - Standard Basis**: As of November 27th, the 20 - rubber basis was 789 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 680 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from last week [41] 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Thailand's Raw Material Price and Processing Profit**: As of November 27th, the field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 57 (+0) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump was 52.95 (+0) Thai baht/kg. As of November 28th, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 27 US dollars/ton, compared with 4.5 US dollars/ton last week [44]. - **Domestic Production Area Raw Material Price**: As of November 27th, the latex price in Yunnan was 14100 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [47]. 3.3.2 Import - In October 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 51.08 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 522.81 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [51]. 3.3.3 Inventory - As of November 23rd, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 46.89 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.63 tons, or 3.60%. The bonded area inventory was 7.19 tons, an increase of 7.97%; the general trade inventory was 39.7 tons, an increase of 2.84%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 8.20 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.20 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 1.03 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.63 percentage points [54]. 3.3.4 Downstream - **Tire Production Capacity Utilization Rate**: As of November 27th, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.36 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.64 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.71 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.68 percentage points [57]. - **Tire Exports**: In October 2025, China's tire exports were 65.31 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.05 and a year - on - year decrease of 6.79%. From January to October, China's cumulative tire exports were 704.38 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.68%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 22.59 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.82%; from January to October, the cumulative exports of passenger car tires were 272.66 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.08%. The exports of truck and bus tires were 39.85 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.85%; from January to October, the cumulative exports of truck and bus tires were 402.65 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.53% [60]. - **Domestic Demand**: In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22% [63]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis There is no information about option market analysis in the provided content.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai Tin will fluctuate upwards, and attention should be paid to the resistance level at 305,000 yuan/ton. The market shows a bullish atmosphere with increasing volume, open interest, and price. However, the downstream has low acceptance of current high prices and is mostly in a wait - and - see state. There are still concerns about tin ore supply, and smelting production is restricted [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 302,200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,320 yuan/ton. The closing price of the January - February contract of Shanghai Tin is - 360 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 120 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month tin price is 38,090 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 395 US dollars/ton. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 54,843 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 10,116 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 1,812 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 943 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 3,125 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 40 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,229 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 29 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant of tin is 6,219 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 34 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 301,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,600 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 302,640 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,870 yuan/ton. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 680 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 590 yuan/ton. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 86 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 49 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 289,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,600 yuan/ton. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 293,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,600 yuan/ton. The average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee is 6,500 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 518.38 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 194,300 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 4,000 yuan/ton. The cumulative monthly output of tinplate (strip) is 1.2454 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1361 million tons. The monthly export volume of tinplate is 222,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 25,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The Fed's Beige Book shows that economic activity has been basically flat in most of the 12 Fed districts, with 2 districts reporting a slight decline and 1 district reporting a slight increase. The overall outlook is basically unchanged, but some people point out an increased risk of slower economic activity in the next few months. Six departments jointly issued an implementation plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption, aiming to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods by 2027. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 6,000 to 216,000, the lowest in seven months. The initial value of US durable goods orders in September increased by 0.5% month - on - month as expected, and the growth rate of core capital goods orders accelerated to 0.9% more than expected [3]. 3.7 Fundamental Situation - The first batch of reopened mines in Myanmar's Wa State has entered the production capacity ramp - up period. However, two tin mines in Malaysia have suspended production, and the production in Africa and Australia has declined unexpectedly. Africa is about to enter the rainy season, so there are still concerns about tin ore supply. Indonesia's refined tin exports decreased significantly in October, alleviating the previous concerns about supply growth. In the smelting end, the raw material shortage in Yunnan is still severe, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a low level. The waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, and the operating rate remains at a low level, so the production of refined tin is still restricted. On the demand side, there is only a small amount of rigid demand procurement, and the downstream has a low acceptance of current high prices and is basically in a wait - and - see state. The domestic inventory has increased slightly, with a spot premium of 200 yuan/ton. The LME inventory has increased slightly, and the spot premium has risen [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has increased significantly. Overseas shipments arriving at the port for warehousing remain at a high level, but downstream enterprises are mainly in a wait - and - see mood with low stocking willingness. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises will gradually recover next week, but the increase will be limited due to some enterprises' maintenance plans. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,900 - 15,600 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,800 - 12,600 in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,280 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,205 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The positions of both contracts decreased, with the main Shanghai rubber contract's position down 9,867 hands and the main 20 - number rubber contract's position down 2,617 hands [2] Spot Market - The price of Shanghai market state - owned whole latex is 14,650 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Shanghai market Vietnam 3L is 15,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,835 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,825 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 60.91 Thai baht/kg, down 0.46 Thai baht; the price of rubber sheet is 57.15 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 126,100 tons, up 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 256,400 tons, down 61,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 62.25%, down 2.25 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 70.05%, down 3.63 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.42 million pieces, down 720,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 51.68 million pieces, down 8.57 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.18%, down 0.61 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 18.04%, down 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.29%, down 0.27 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.3%, down 0.25 percentage points [2] Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 12% and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October, the cumulative sales exceeded 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. As of November 23, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 468,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.60%. As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.36 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.64 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.71 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.68 percentage points [2]