数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：I：铁矿石 铁矿石产业链日报 2025/8/26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 776.50 | -10.50↓ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 452,852 | -11978↓ | | | I 9-1合约价差（元/吨） | 20.5 | +1.00↑ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -5873 | -9565↓ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 2,000.00 | 0.00 | | | | | 新加坡铁矿石主力合约截止15：00报价(美元/吨) | 102.35 | -0.91↓ | | | | 现货市场 | 青岛港61.5%PB粉矿 (元/干吨) | 842 | -8↓ 青岛港60.8%麦克粉矿 (元/干吨) | 827 | -8↓ | | | 京唐港56.5%超特粉矿 (元/干吨) | 720 | -5↓ I 主力合约基差 (麦克粉干吨-主力合约) | 51 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The inventory of old - season apples is low, which still supports prices. However, the increasing supply of early - season apples with uneven quality restricts price increases, resulting in a range - bound market. It is recommended to conduct range trading and pay attention to the coloring and listing of early - season apples [2]. 3) Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple futures contract is 8124 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract is 72112 lots, a decrease of 5542 lots compared to the previous period. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 588 lots [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for apples is 19.87%, with a 0.59% increase [2]. Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, and Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged 75 and above, paper - bagged 70 and above semi - commodities) are 4 yuan/jin, 2.3 yuan/jin, and 4 yuan/jin respectively [2]. Upstream Situation - The annual national apple output is 5128.51 million tons, and the weekly average wholesale price of apples is 9.66 yuan/kg, with a 0.02 yuan increase. The average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.5 yuan/kg [2]. - The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 39.45 million tons, a decrease of 6.56 million tons compared to the previous week. The storage capacity ratios of Shandong and Shaanxi apples are 0.07 and 0.01 respectively [2]. - The monthly export volume of apples is 50,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly export value of apples is 6328.4 million US dollars, and the monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits, and nuts is 1742602 million US dollars, a decrease of 212886 million US dollars [2]. - The weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples is 0.4 yuan/jin [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale prices of mandarins, bananas, and watermelons are 9.76 yuan/kg, 5.75 yuan/kg, and 3.54 yuan/kg respectively, with decreases of 0.35 yuan/kg, 0.13 yuan/kg, and 0.04 yuan/kg [2]. - The early - morning average daily arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Guangdong Xiaqiao, and Guangdong Chalong fruit wholesale markets is 11.4, 4.8, and 14.4 respectively, with an increase of 3.8 and 7.2 at the Jiangmen and Chalong markets [2]. Industry News - In the western producing areas, the trading of Gala apples is in the later stage, with uneven quality of the remaining goods, few high - quality goods, chaotic prices, and price determined by quality [2]. - The market of Shandong cold - storage Red Fuji apples is under pressure, with slow sales and a prominent sense of urgency to sell in cold - storage. The prices of early - season apples in Shandong fluctuate slightly depending on the supply volume [2]. - On Tuesday, the Apple 2510 contract closed down 0.23%. According to preliminary estimates by Mysteel based on bagging volume survey data, the national apple output in the new season is expected to be 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season [2].

螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/8/26 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,113.00 | -25↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1308206 | -39624↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -112560 | -8361↓ RB10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -72 | +14↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 162206 | 0.00 HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 254 | +3↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,320.00 | -20↓ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,405 | -21↓ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,320.00 | 0.00 天津 HRB400E 20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Trump's move to remove Fed Governor Cook and potential tariff plans have boosted market risk aversion, causing a short - term spike in London spot gold prices. The main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver opened higher, but the upward momentum of Shanghai silver was insufficient. - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has slightly increased, and the market has fully priced in two rate cuts by the end of the year. However, the upward momentum on the market has weakened, and some long - position funds have flowed out, possibly due to the less - than - expected rise in rate - cut expectations after the weekend meeting. - The mid - term logic of rate cuts is bullish for gold and silver prices, but in the short term, the lack of major macro - catalysts may lead to range - bound trading. It is recommended to lightly build positions after a pullback, and short - term long - position holders should be aware of pullback risks. Specific price ranges are provided for different contracts and external markets [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Shanghai gold main contract closing price: 781.12 yuan/gram, up 1.94; Shanghai silver main contract closing price: 9354 yuan/kilogram, down 40. - Shanghai gold main contract open interest: 174,588 lots, down 5,563; Shanghai silver main contract open interest: 303,822 lots, down 18,952. - Net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold main contract: 161,166 lots, up 1,140; net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver main contract: 109,203 lots, down 9,168. - Gold warehouse receipts: 37,503 kilograms, down 12; silver warehouse receipts: 1,127,333 kilograms, up 13,692 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price: 776.86 yuan/gram, up 1.14; Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network silver spot price: 9319 yuan/kilogram, down 17. - Shanghai gold main contract basis: - 4.26 yuan/gram, down 0.8; Shanghai silver main contract basis: - 35 yuan/kilogram, up 23 [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings: 958.49 tons, up 1.72; silver ETF holdings: 15,288.82 tons, unchanged. - Gold CFTC non - commercial net positions (weekly): 212,590 contracts, down 16,895; silver CTFC non - commercial net positions (weekly): 46,549 contracts, up 2,281. - Quarterly total gold supply: 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84; annual total silver supply: 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4. - Quarterly total gold demand: 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83; annual global total silver demand: 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 [2]. 3.4 Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of gold: 8.48%, up 0.17; 40 - day historical volatility of gold: 10.6%, up 0.14. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold: 16.29%, up 0.02; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold: 16.29%, up 0.02 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump removed Fed Governor Cook due to alleged dishonesty and potential criminal behavior. - The Trump administration plans to impose a 50% tariff on Indian products. - Major investment banks expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, and some banks expect additional cuts in December. - Japan Post will temporarily stop receiving some mail to the US due to new tariff exemption rules [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, the supply - side pressure of US soybeans still exists, but the reduction in planting area supports the price. In the domestic market, the relatively high oil - mill operating rate and the accumulation of soybean meal inventory suppress the rapeseed meal price, while the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand support it. The overall rapeseed meal market is in a strong - side shock, and a bullish view is maintained [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the increase in Canada's rapeseed production and inventory, along with China's anti - dumping measures, may put pressure on Canadian rapeseed prices. Domestically, the off - season of oil consumption and sufficient supply restrain the price, but low oil - mill operating rates, fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases, and anti - dumping measures reduce supply pressure. The rapeseed oil market shows a narrow - range shock and is recommended to be participated in with a bullish view [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Rapeseed oil: The futures closing price of the active contract is 9821 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the 1 - 5 month spread is 167 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The main - contract position is 290274 lots, down 1009 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 5402 lots, down 963 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 3487, unchanged [2]. - Rapeseed meal: The futures closing price of the active contract is 2526 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; the 1 - 5 month spread is 63 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan. The main - contract position is 432019 lots, up 9503 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 10950 lots, down 6068 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 7987, down 79 [2]. - ICE rapeseed: The futures closing price of the active contract is 660.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 4.6 Canadian dollars [2]. - Rapeseed: The futures closing price of the active contract is 4857 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu is 9980 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the average price is 10045 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 89 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan [2]. - Rapeseed meal: The spot price in Nantong is 2600 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is 74 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan [2]. - Rapeseed: The spot price in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Substitute products: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8730 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9470 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume is 17.6 tons, down 0.85 tons; the import cost of rapeseed is 8191.22 yuan/ton, down 155.75 yuan/ton. The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 15 tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 12.79%, up 0.85% [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Import volume: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 15 tons, up 4 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal is 0.05 tons, up 0.05 tons [2]. - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 10.5 tons, up 2.1 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 27.03 tons, down 0.45 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 53.6 tons, down 0.6 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region is 32.86 tons, down 0.73 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 4.9 tons, down 0.1 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 21.4 tons, down 0.4 tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 2.81 tons, down 0.95 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 2.79 tons, down 0.45 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2937.7 tons, up 175.6 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 476.9 tons, up 41.8 tons; the monthly catering revenue in social consumer goods retail is 4707.6 billion yuan, up 129.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Rapeseed meal: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 20%, down 0.89%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.99%, down 0.9%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 32.42%, up 0.1%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 21.71%, down 0.4% [2]. - Rapeseed oil: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 14.32%, down 0.07%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 14.32%, down 0.08%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 17.48%, down 2.08%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 14.4%, down 0.45% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On Monday, the Canadian rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) rose first and then fell, with the benchmark contract down 1.07%, following the decline of Chicago soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil futures. The Pro Farmer report predicts that the average yield of US soybeans will reach a record - high of 53.0 bushels per acre, and the total output is expected to be 4.246 billion bushels [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and the pressure of newly - opened laying hens supplemented in the early stage is large, resulting in sufficient egg supply. The continuous delivery of cold - storage eggs further exacerbates the supply pressure. Meanwhile, terminal demand is weak, and the hot weather makes the market cautious, leading to sluggish demand. Breeding enterprises are more willing to sell at low prices to reduce inventory, causing the spot market price to continuously fall short of expectations, and the breeding end to remain in a loss state. Additionally, the slowdown of capacity reduction in the industry may continue to restrict egg prices during the peak seasons of school openings and Mid - Autumn Festival preparations. From a market perspective, under the pressure of weak spot prices and high production capacity, the futures price generally maintains a weak trend [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 3013 yuan/500 kilograms, down 8 from the previous period; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 54965 hands, down 12313; the egg futures monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 99 yuan/500 kilograms, unchanged; the futures holding volume of the active contract is 471034 hands, up 8502; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 hands, unchanged [2] 3.2现货市场 - The egg spot price is 3.09 yuan/jin, up 0.05; the basis (spot - futures) is 79 yuan/500 kilograms, up 58 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 113.18 (2015 = 100), up 1.27; the national culled laying hen index is 99.2 (2015 = 100), down 4.89; the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 3.2 yuan/chick, down 0.4; the national new chick index is 78.4 (2015 = 100), up 2.33; the average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.76 yuan/kg, unchanged; the laying hen breeding profit is - 0.15 yuan/hen, up 0.11; the average price of culled hens in the main production areas is 10.1 yuan/kg, down 0.84; the national culling age of hens is 512 days, up 11 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.01 yuan/kg, down 0.1; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.9 yuan/kg, up 0.05; the average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.67 yuan/kg, up 0.1; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.16 days, up 0.13; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.02 days, up 0.1; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12792.51 tons, down 110.81 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7439 tons, down 166 [2] 3.6 Industry News - Today, the average price of eggs in Shandong's main production area is 6.20 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 6.13 yuan/kg, up 0.15 from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 6.20 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 6.90 yuan/kg, up 0.20 from yesterday [2]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20,715.00 | -55.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 3,069.00 | -115.00↓ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 35.00 251,409.00 | -10.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) +3066.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | -6.00 228,725.00 | +5.00↑ +34880.00↑ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 13,250.00 | -800.00↓ 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 103,364.00 | +14952.00↑ | | 期货市场 | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） | 2,622.00 | +29.00↑ LME铝库存（日，吨） | 478,725.00 | -800.00↓ | | | 沪铝前20名净持仓（日 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, Asian major sugar - producing countries have a good production outlook with a loose global supply expectation. However, there are concerns about Brazil's sugar - cane sugar content in the 2025/26 season, and demand shows improvement signs, so the raw sugar price maintains a low - level oscillating trend. Domestically, the profit window for out - of - quota imports remains open, and the import pressure is released. The sugar import volume in July increased significantly month - on - month, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past decade, and the peak will continue from August to September. Beet sugar will start being squeezed in September, increasing the supply. On the demand side, the upcoming double - festival stocking is expected to boost demand. The inventory pressure is not significant due to good previous sales, but the increase in processed sugar has slowed down the de - stocking process. The new - season production is expected to be at a high level in the past four years. Technically, the sugar 2601 contract dropped sharply at noon, hitting a one - week low. Overall, the current domestic sugar inventory pressure is not large, and the double - festival stocking expectation provides support for the sugar price. But the significant increase in imports, the upcoming northern sugar - mill squeezing, and the high - expected new - season production will limit the medium - term upward price space. It is recommended to try short - selling at high prices and control risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5632 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan; the main contract position is 366,130 lots, down 1,534 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts is 15,315, down 70; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 13,924 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1, unchanged; the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4,540 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar (within quota) is 4,540 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 5,769 yuan/ton; the estimated import price of Thai sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 5,755 yuan/ton; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,860 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning, it is 5,950 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Liuzhou, it is 6,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares; the national cumulative sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons; the national cumulative sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume is 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil are 3.5937 million tons, an increase of 0.2347 million tons [2] 产业情况 - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (within quota) is 1,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar (within quota) is 1,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 101 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 115 yuan/ton, an increase of 73 yuan [2] 下游情况 - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point [2] 期权市场 - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.3%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 8.3%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.75%, an increase of 0.22 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.13%, unchanged [2] 行业消息 - Brazil's foreign trade secretariat export data shows that Brazil exported 2,813,944.72 tons of sugar in the first four weeks of August, with an average daily export volume of 175,871.55 tons, a 1% decrease compared to the average daily export volume in August last year. On Monday, the ICE raw sugar October contract closed down 0.3%. On Tuesday, the sugar 2601 contract closed down 0.93% [2]

沪锌产业日报 2025-08-25 | | | 锌价支撑或减弱。技术面，持仓低位价格回升，多空谨慎，关注22200支撑。操作上，建议暂时观望，或短 线逢回调轻仓做多。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22395 | 150 09-10月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | -20 | -20 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 2805.5 | 38.5 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 206625 | -468 ...

单有所释放；同时持货商出货意愿较高，国内市场保持去库趋势，现货升水持稳。技术面，持仓下降价格 回升，空头氛围减弱，关注MA60支撑。操作上，建议暂时观望，或短线轻仓做多。 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 不锈钢产业日报 2025-08-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12880 | 125 09-10月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -95 | -30 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -9146 | -1294 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 144460 | 5650 | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 101925 | -16715 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 13650 | -50 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9650 | 0 | | | ...