1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic trade ore remains stable. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has rebounded, but the port inventory of nickel ore in China has decreased, resulting in a tight raw material situation. [3] - In July, the production rhythm of leading enterprises remained stable, the output of several smelters increased, and new production capacity is still planned to be put into operation, driving a slight increase in the overall refined nickel output. [3] - The profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, leading to increased production. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, the nickel price has declined, the downstream purchasing atmosphere at low prices has improved, the spot premium has increased, and the domestic inventory has slightly decreased, while the overseas LME inventory has also decreased. [3] - Technically, the decline in positions and the rise in price indicate a weakening of the bearish sentiment. Attention should be paid to the battle at the 120,000 mark. It is recommended to wait and see for now, or go long lightly at low prices, with a reference range of 119,500 - 124,000. [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 120,310 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 700 yuan; the spread between the September - October contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan. [3] - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 14,975 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 35 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 111,421 lots, an increase of 9,036 lots. [3] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 36,593 lots, a decrease of 1,224 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 209,748 tons, an increase of 150 tons. [3] - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 26,943 tons (weekly), a decrease of 19 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants total 7,998 tons, an increase of 24 tons. [3] - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 22,552 tons, a decrease of 36 tons. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 120,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 550 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 120,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 550 yuan. [3] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel in the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [3] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract is 940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 330 yuan. [3] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 175.83 US dollars/ton, an increase of 11.13 US dollars. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 500.58 million tons, an increase of 65.92 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,205.85 million tons (weekly), an increase of 110.69 million tons. [3] - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 63.77 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.08 US dollars/ton; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 22,200 metal tons, a decrease of 400 metal tons. [3] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, an increase of 21,018.74 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 835,900 tons, a decrease of 205,500 tons. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 4.59 million tons less; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 590,100 tons, an increase of 7,400 tons. [3] 3.6 Industry News - The vice - minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Xiong Jijun, said that the dominant position of enterprises in innovation will be strengthened, and the in - depth integration of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation will be promoted. Key core technologies such as GPU chips will be quickly broken through, and the supply of basic and common technologies will be expanded. The scale of intelligent computing power in China will increase by more than 40% this year. [3] - Powell said that the stable labor market indicators allow the Fed to consider policy adjustments carefully. The change in the baseline outlook and risk balance may require the Fed to adjust its policy stance. The labor market has achieved a "strange balance" due to the significant slowdown in both supply and demand, indicating an increased downside risk to employment. In the short term, the inflation risk is upward. The Fed has adjusted its monetary policy framework, eliminating the policy of tolerating high inflation and promising to anchor long - term inflation expectations. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will guide the construction of computing power facilities in an orderly manner and accelerate the breakthrough of key core technologies such as GPU chips. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory of spot goods at Qingdao Port continued to decline, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory reduction. Overseas goods arriving at the port for warehousing decreased, while downstream tire companies had a positive purchasing sentiment, and warehouse shipments were better than expected. - Last week, the domestic tire production capacity utilization rate increased, but this week, it may decline slightly due to factors such as high - temperature weather and limited overall orders. Some enterprises may adjust production schedules or conduct maintenance at the end of the month, dragging down the overall production capacity utilization rate. - The RU2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,650 - 16,200 in the short - term, and the NR2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,650 - 13,000 in the short - term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 15,905 yuan/ton, up 265 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 12,785 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan. - The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 105 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 10 - 11 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 30 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,115 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 132,930 lots, up 1,723 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 57,206 lots, up 2,876 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 32,531 lots, up 3,267 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 7,221 lots, up 1,111 lots. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 178,470 tons, down 40 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 44,655 tons. [2] 现货市场 - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, down 202 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,805 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,805 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 975 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 1,025 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,873 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 357 yuan/ton, up 108 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 61.55 Thai baht/kg, up 1.55 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 57.6 Thai baht/kg, up 0.37 Thai baht. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 55 Thai baht/kg, up 0.3 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 49.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.3 Thai baht. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 235 US dollars/ton, up 19.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 37.8 US dollars/ton, up 4.6 US dollars. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 12.19 million tons, up 0.1 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 25.95 million tons, down 2.13 million tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.76%, up 1.67 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.13%, up 1.06 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 39.76 days, up 0.25 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 47.05 days, up 0.32 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.75 million pieces, up 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 56.97 million pieces, up 1.74 million pieces. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 19.62%, down 0.91 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.34%, up 0.21 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.71%, up 0.22 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.7%, up 0.21 percentage points. [2] Industry News - In the first week of August 24 - 30, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, heavy rainfall in some areas increased the impact on tapping; in the southern hemisphere, rainfall in most areas was low, slightly reducing the impact on tapping. - As of August 24, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao (bonded and general trade) was 606,200 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.71%. The bonded area inventory was 73,300 tons, a decline of 4.70%; the general trade inventory was 532,900 tons, a decline of 1.28%. - As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a month - on - month increase of 2.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a month - on - month increase of 2.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points. [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - BZ2603 shows a weakening and oscillating trend, closing at 6,206 yuan/ton. The supply of pure benzene is expected to remain abundant, while the consumption may continue to be weak. The situation of supply exceeding demand in the domestic pure benzene market is expected to continue, exerting pressure on prices. In the short term, BZ2603 is expected to show an oscillating trend, with technical support around 6,100 and resistance around 6,300 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main closing price of pure benzene is 6,206 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the main settlement price is 6,217 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The main trading volume is 5,336 lots, down 410 lots; the main open interest is 13,064 lots, up 371 lots. The mainstream prices in different domestic markets have different changes, with some remaining unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of pure benzene in South Korea's FOB middle - price is 736 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars; the CFR middle - price in China is 750.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The spot price in the domestic market is 6,225 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 68.49 US dollars/barrel, up 0.21 US dollars; the CFR middle - price of naphtha in the Japanese region is 584.5 US dollars/ton, up 9 US dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 78.14%, up 0.13%; the weekly output is 45.08 million tons, up 0.56 million tons. The port inventory of pure benzene is 14.4 million tons, down 0.2 million tons. The production cost is 5,327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan/ton; the production profit is 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene is 78.53%, up 0.35%; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam is 95.72%, up 6.41%. The capacity utilization rate of phenol is 78.54%, down 0.46%; the capacity utilization rate of aniline is 69.24%, down 0.1%. The capacity utilization rate of adipic acid is 64.3%, up 2 [2]. Industry News - From August 15th to 21st, the profit of PetroChina's benzene was 707 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. As of August 25th, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene ports in Jiangsu was 13.8 million tons, a decrease of 4.17% compared with the previous period [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, the impact of the restart of previous petroleum - benzene devices has expanded, with the capacity utilization rate of petroleum benzene up 0.98% to 78.99%, while the number of shut - down and load - reducing devices of hydro - benzene in North China has increased, with the capacity utilization rate down 5.03% to 57.69%. On the demand side, the operating rates of pure - benzene downstream industries changed differently last week, with the weighted operating rate of pure - benzene downstream up 0.19% to 78.42%. The inventory of pure benzene in East China ports decreased by 4.17% to 13.8 million tons. This week, petroleum - benzene devices are expected to operate stably, and there are both shut - down and restart devices for hydro - benzene. Overall, the domestic pure - benzene output is expected to change little. The arrival volume of imported pure benzene in East China will increase, and the supply may remain abundant. Terminal demand is insufficient, and all five major downstream industries of pure benzene are in the red, so the consumption of pure benzene may continue to be weak [2]. Cost and Price Forecast - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September has increased, and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine meeting is limited. The international oil price has rebounded recently, but the impact of OPEC+ production increase restricts the upward space of oil prices. In the short term, BZ2603 is expected to show an oscillating trend, with technical support around 6,100 and resistance around 6,300 [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - For soda ash, supply is expected to remain ample, demand will continue to decline, and prices will generally face downward pressure. However, with anti - involution speculation, there may be variables. It's recommended to buy soda ash futures on dips in the short - term [2]. - For glass, the supply remains at a low level with no change in production, and demand is affected by the poor real - estate situation. There is a small increase in inventory, but the de - stocking trend remains. It's advisable to buy glass futures on dips in the short - term, but avoid over - chasing the long position [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash: The closing price of the main contract is 1337 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan), the position of the main contract is 1372600 lots (down 10676 lots), the net position of the top 20 is - 325488 (down 23179), the exchange warehouse receipt is 9064 tons (down 9 tons), the spread between September and January contracts is - 111 (down 11), and the basis is - 121 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan) [2]. - Glass: The closing price of the main contract is 1191 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan), the position of the main contract is 1148707 lots (down 60017 lots), the net position of the top 20 is - 234728 (down 21109), the exchange warehouse receipt is 1643 tons (unchanged), the spread between September and January contracts is - 192 (down 16), and the basis is - 101 (down 13) [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Soda ash: The price of North China heavy soda is 1220 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan), Central China heavy soda is 1325 yuan/ton (unchanged), East China light soda is 1265 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Central China light soda is 1220 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Glass: The price of Shahe glass大板 is 1064 yuan/ton (down 8 yuan), and Central China glass大板 is 1090 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash: The weekly operating rate of soda ash plants is 88.48% (up 1.16%), and the weekly inventory of soda ash enterprises is 189.73 tons (up 0.35 tons) [2]. - Glass: The weekly operating rate of float glass enterprises is 75.34% (unchanged), the weekly in - production capacity is 15.96 million tons/year (unchanged), the number of in - production lines is 223 (unchanged), and the weekly inventory of glass enterprises is 6360.6 ten - thousand heavy boxes (up 18 ten - thousand heavy boxes) [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Real estate: The cumulative new construction area is 352060000 square meters (up 48416800 square meters), and the cumulative completion area is 250340000 square meters (up 24673900 square meters) [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The central bank will conduct 600 billion yuan of MLF operations on Monday [2]. - From January to July 2025, the national actual use of foreign capital was 467.34 billion yuan [2]. - The Hang Seng Index added China Telecom, JD Logistics, and Pop Mart, with the number of constituent stocks increasing to 88 [2]. - The central bank and SAFE solicited public opinions on the "Regulations on the Inter - bank Foreign Exchange Market (Draft for Comment)" [2]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association called for resisting vicious competition at prices below cost and blind expansion [2].

空间已开启，但对港口市场提货暂无明显提振，预计港口甲醇库存继续累库。需求方面，上周各烯烃装置 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 稳定运行，陕西延长中煤榆林二期装置重启后提负荷运行，整体开工有所提升，本周中石化中原烯烃装置 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 甲醇产业日报 2025-08-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2424 | 14 甲醇1-5价差(日,元/吨) | 22 | 1 6735 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 675269 | -22877 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -104768 | | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 10566 | -100 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2295 | 5 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 2072.5 | 2.5 | | | 华东 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The freight index (European line) futures prices mostly rose on Monday, with the main contract EC2510 up 2.57% and the far - month contracts down 1% to 1%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index dropped 55.31 points from last week, a 8.7% decline. Spot indicators are falling, expected to drive down futures prices. Top shipping companies are in a "price war", and market expectations are turning cold. The plan to impose tariffs on steel, chips and semiconductors increases global trade uncertainty. The Fed's view on interest - rate cuts is divided, and the market's expectation of a September rate cut is weakening. The Q2 2025 euro - zone GDP growth slightly exceeded expectations, and the ECB has more flexibility in interest - rate policy. Overall, due to trade war uncertainties, weak demand expectations for the freight index (European line), and large fluctuations in futures prices, investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1358.000, up 8.50; EC second - main contract closing price: 1696.7 - EC2510 - EC2512 spread: + 13.50 (up), EC2510 - EC2602 spread: - 138.90, up 17.10 - EC contract basis: - 238.97 (down) - EC main contract open interest: 54357, up 102 [1] Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1990.20, down 189.97; SCFIS (US West Coast line) (weekly): 1041.38, down 64.91 - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1415.36, down 44.83; container ship capacity: 1227.97 (no change) - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1174.87, down 18.47; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1757.74, down 32.73 - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1944.00, down 51.00; Panama freight index (daily): 1770.00, down 51.00 - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 13907.00, up 118.00; average charter price (Capesize ship): 19777.00, down 1423.00 [1] Industry News - China and the US are natural agricultural cooperation partners, and China is the largest export market for US agricultural products - Fed Chairman Powell said the risk balance is changing, and traders increased bets on a September rate cut - US President Trump threatened to fire Fed Governor Cook if she doesn't resign voluntarily [1] Key Data to Focus On - August 26, 20:30: US July durable goods orders monthly rate - August 26, 21:00: US June FHFA housing price index monthly rate - August 26, 21:00: US June S&P/CS20 major cities unadjusted housing price index annual rate [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The international raw sugar price is in a low - level oscillation. Asian major sugar - producing countries have a good production outlook with a loose global supply expectation, but there are concerns about the sugar content of Brazilian sugarcane in the 2025/26 season and signs of improved demand. In the domestic market, the profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, with a significant increase in sugar imports in July, which is the highest in the same period in the past decade, and the peak period will last until August and September. Beet sugar will start to be squeezed in September, increasing the supply. The demand is expected to increase due to the upcoming Double - Festival stocking. The inventory pressure of domestic sugar is not large currently, but the de - stocking process has slowed down. The new - season production is expected to be at a high level in the past four years. Overall, the domestic sugar price is supported by the Double - Festival stocking expectation and low inventory pressure, showing a pattern of strong domestic and weak foreign markets. However, factors such as increased imports, upcoming northern sugar mill openings, and high new - season production expectations will limit the upward space of the price. The operation suggestion is to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5688 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 15 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 367,664 hands, with a change of 5,745 hands. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 15,385, with a decrease of 170. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 16,517 hands. The effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1, with no change. The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton; the estimated price of Thai sugar within the quota is also 4,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton. The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,769 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,755 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; in Nanning, it is 5,970 yuan/ton, with no change; in Liuzhou, it is 6,030 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The sown area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons. The national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points. The monthly sugar import volume is 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000 tons. The total sugar export volume from Brazil is 359.37 million tons, an increase of 23.47 million tons. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current Liuzhou sugar price within the quota is 1,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is also 1,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current Liuzhou sugar price outside the quota (50% tariff) is 101 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 115 yuan/ton, an increase of 73 yuan/ton [2]. 3.5下游情况 - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.16%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is also 8.16%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.54%, a decrease of 1.29 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.13%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - A survey of 10 traders and analysts shows that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 39.7 million tons, lower than the February forecast of 41.6 million tons and the previous year's 40.2 million tons [2].

| | | 来说，虽然8月出栏压力较大抑制现货价格表现，但是国家开展储备收储提振市场信心，加上即将开学带来 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 需求改善预期，预计短期生猪期价在区间内偏强震荡，关注出栏节奏和下游需求情况。操作上，建议暂时 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 观望。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 生猪产业日报 2025-08-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - The supply of polysilicon is increasing while the demand is weakening. It is expected that the polysilicon market will continue to adjust next week. Although the price is supported by cost and policies, the upside space is limited by the downstream acceptance, and it is likely to continue to show a volatile trend. The overall situation will still maintain a volatile state. Today, polysilicon showed an overall upward and then downward trend, maintaining a volatile state. It is expected that the future price center may further decline. The operation suggestion is to layout put options [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 51,580 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 175; the 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2,380, with a week - on - week decrease of 155 [2] - The main position volume of polysilicon is 136,801 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 5,596; the spread between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 42,660 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 235 [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 49,000 yuan/ton, with no change; the average price of polycrystalline silicon (cauliflower material) is 30 yuan/kg, with no change [2] - The basis of polysilicon is - 2,580 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 175; the average price of polycrystalline silicon (dense material) is 36 yuan/kg, with no change [2] - The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, with no change; the average price of polycrystalline silicon (re - feeding material) is 34.8 yuan/kg, with no change [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 8,745 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 110; the export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons per month, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] - The spot price of industrial silicon is 9,350 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100; the import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons per month, with a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons [2] - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 324,700 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 19,500 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 105,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,170 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 57 tons [2] - The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.46 US dollars/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.16; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2.19 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 66,382,000 kilowatts, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,004,000 kilowatts; the weekly comprehensive price index (SPI) of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 28.48, with a week - on - week increase of 0.62 [2] - The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 110,432,680 units, with a month - on - month increase of 21,456,820 units [2] - The monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 14,525,650 units, with a month - on - month increase of 3,429,750 units; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.29 US dollars/unit, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 [2] Industry News - In the first half of 2025, LONGi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. achieved an operating income of 32.813 billion yuan, with a significant reduction in losses of 2.661 billion yuan compared with the same period of the previous year. This was mainly due to the improvement of operation efficiency, which led to a significant decline in sales and management expenses and a significant reduction in asset impairment losses. Technological innovation became the key to breaking the situation. LONGi Green Energy started a new round of technological engine drive with its leading differentiated BC technology [2] - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and take promoting a reasonable recovery of prices as an important consideration for monetary policy. In terms of polysilicon, from the supply side, the weekly output of polysilicon has climbed, and it is expected that the output of polysilicon will increase in August. If the "production and sales restriction" is implemented in September, the monthly output may be flat compared with the previous month. However, from the current situation, the previously ramping - up bases in the southwest are at full production, and although some enterprises in the northwest are starting and stopping, the overall output still shows an increasing trend [2] View Summary - The supply of polysilicon is increasing, while the demand is weakening. The price of silicon wafers is stable, and some enterprises have raised prices, but the downstream is highly wait - and - see. The impact of weak terminal demand is gradually emerging. Although the quotes of the photovoltaic industry chain have been raised, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the market has not changed, and the terminal transaction pressure is relatively large, which restricts the demand for polysilicon to a certain extent [2] Key Points to Watch - There is no news today [2]

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the plastics industry dated August 25, 2025, covering futures, spot, upstream, industrial, downstream, and options markets, as well as industry news and a summary of views [1][2] Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene was 2423 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 38 yuan; the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contract closing prices were 7423 yuan/ton, 7426 yuan/ton, and 7365 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 43 yuan, 34 yuan, and 44 yuan [2] - The trading volume was 261,365 lots, an increase of 35,677 lots; the open interest was 393,878 lots, a decrease of 364 lots [2] - The 9 - 1 spread was - 58, an increase of 1; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 34,883 lots, an increase of 2410 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7317.83 yuan/ton, an increase of 21.3 yuan; in East China, it was 7385.95 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.9 yuan [2] - The basis was - 62.17, an increase of 27.31 [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 62.71 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.91 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 584.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9 US dollars [2] - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industrial Situation - The national PE petrochemical plant operating rate was 78.72%, a decrease of 5.47 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene packaging film was 49.85%, an increase of 0.78 percentage points; for pipes, it was 30.67%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points; for agricultural films, it was 14.53%, an increase of 0.71 percentage points [2] Industry News - From August 15th to 21st, China's polyethylene production was 618,100 tons, a decrease of 6.50% from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 78.72%, a decrease of 5.48 percentage points [2] - From August 15th to 21st, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.5% from the previous period [2] - As of August 20th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 501,900 tons, an increase of 12.91% from the previous period; as of August 22nd, the social inventory of polyethylene was 562,000 tons, an increase of 0.99% from the previous period [2] Viewpoint Summary - The inventory of production enterprises increased by 12.91% to 501,900 tons, the social inventory decreased by 2.14% to 556,500 tons, and the total inventory pressure is not significant [2] - The polyethylene maintenance plan in August was basically fulfilled, and the concentrated maintenance devices are expected to restart from late September to early October, temporarily relieving the supply pressure [2] - This week, Yulong Petrochemical, Tarim Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical plan to restart, and the production and capacity utilization rate are expected to increase month - on - month [2] - The demand for agricultural films is seasonally increasing, but due to the narrowing of agricultural product profits, the follow - up of greenhouse film orders is limited. High - temperature and heavy - rainfall weather also disturbs the demand for greenhouse films. Packaging film demand is mainly for rigid needs [2] - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September is rising, the progress of the Russia - Ukraine meeting is limited, and the recent international oil price has rebounded, but the impact of OPEC+ production increase restricts the upward space of oil prices [2] - Technically, L2601 should pay attention to the pressure around 7450 [2]