1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the market is affected by multiple factors. In the US, the soybean situation is complex with increased inventory but lower - than - expected planting area. Domestically, the supply of rapeseed meal is affected by the increase in imported soybeans and the rise in oil - mill operating rates, while the demand is boosted by the aquaculture season but weakened by the substitution advantage of soybean meal. The price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the international market is influenced by factors such as the MPOB report, international biodiesel policies, and international oil prices. Domestically, it is in the off - season for consumption, with a loose supply and high inventory pressure. However, the decrease in oil - mill operating rates and the potential tightening of Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may have an impact on the market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9548 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2579 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; ICE rapeseed is 719.1 Canadian dollars/ton, up 0.4 Canadian dollars; and rapeseed is 5058 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2]. - Spreads and positions: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 56 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 264 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 19088 lots, down 5701 lots; for rapeseed meal, it is - 12451 lots, down 7960 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 805, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal is 15218, down 1014 [2]. 3.2现货市场 - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9750 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2500 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9782.5 yuan/ton, down 72.5 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed is 5148.66 yuan/ton, down 9.02 yuan [2]. - Price differences and ratios: The oil - meal ratio is 3.77, down 0.04. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 143 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is - 79 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1590 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1240 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons. The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 33.55 million tons, down 15.37 million tons. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; that of rapeseed meal is 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operating rates: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 15 million tons, unchanged. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 11.46%, down 2.8% [2]. 3.4 Industrial Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 11.15 million tons, down 1.05 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.1 million tons, up 0.09 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 61.59 million tons, down 1.46 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory is 36.9 million tons, up 0.07 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 6.9 million tons, down 0.3 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 30.1 million tons, down 0.7 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 3 million tons, up 0.19 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 3.48 million tons, up 0.61 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production and consumption: The monthly production of feed is 2762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons. The monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons. The monthly social consumer retail sales of catering revenue is 4578.2 billion yuan, up 411.2 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied and historical volatilities: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 16.94%, down 1.59%; that of put options is 16.93%, down 1.6%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 14.43%, up 0.16%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 19.26%, down 0.87%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed oil is 12.77%, up 0.52%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.1%, up 0.31%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.89%, down 0.03% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Canadian rapeseed futures: On Friday, Canadian rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) traded in a narrow range, with closing prices mixed. The 11 - month contract rose 0.2 Canadian dollars to 719.70 Canadian dollars/ton; the 1 - month contract was flat at 727.40 Canadian dollars/ton; the 3 - month contract fell 0.5 Canadian dollars to 732.90 Canadian dollars/ton [2]. - US soybean situation: As of June 1, the US soybean inventory was 1.008 billion bushels, a 4% increase from the same period last year, higher than the analyst's expectation of 980 million bushels. The US soybean planting area in 2025 is 83.38 million acres, lower than the March forecast of 83.5 million acres and the analyst's estimate of 93.655 million acres, a 4.2% decrease from the same period last year [2].

苹果产业日报 2025-07-07 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) | 7733 | -6 10月合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) | 7733 | -6 0 | | | 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) | 89653 | -6669 仓单数量:苹果(日,张) | 0 | | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果(日,手) | 5853 | -1403 | | | | | 山东烟台栖霞现货价格(纸袋80#以上一 | 4.1 | 甘肃静宁苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, 0 | 4.5 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 二级果农货)(日,元/斤) 山东沂源苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, | | 元/斤) 陕西洛川苹果现货价格(纸袋70#以上半 | | | | | | 2.6 | 0 | 4.2 | 0 | | 上游情 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Eggs have entered the seasonal demand off - season, with high laying - hen inventory and large pressure from newly - laid eggs of previously replenished hens, resulting in sufficient egg supply. Affected by the rainy season, high - temperature and high - humidity climate increases egg storage costs, making downstream dealers cautious in purchasing. Egg prices are continuously at a relatively low level compared to the same period, and the breeding side is in a continuous loss state. However, after the price reaches a relatively low level, the process of old - hen elimination accelerates, reducing the inventory expectation. The near - month futures price drops again due to the decline of the spot price, while the far - month contract is obviously resistant to decline, and it is advisable to try to go long on the far - month contract with a light position [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 3449 yuan/500 kilograms, down 133 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 30493 hands, up 1462 hands; the egg futures monthly spread (9 - 1) is - 57 yuan/500 kilograms, down 108 yuan; the futures holding volume of the active contract is 181589 hands, up 933 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 153 hands, up 3 hands [2] 现货市场 - The egg spot price is 2.62 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is - 831 yuan/500 kilograms, up 77 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national laying - hen inventory index is 110.89 (2015 = 100), down 1.46; the national eliminated laying - hen index is 108.68 (2015 = 100), up 11.92; the average price of egg - chicken chicks in the main production areas is 3.9 yuan/feather, down 0.1 yuan; the national new - chick index is 106.78 (2015 = 100), down 31.9; the average price of egg - chicken compound feed is 2.72 yuan/kilogram, down 0.02 yuan; the egg - chicken breeding profit is - 0.58 yuan/head, down 0.17 yuan; the average price of eliminated chickens in the main production areas is 9.4 yuan/kilogram, up 0.16 yuan; the national eliminated - chicken age is 506 days, down 4 days [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.66 yuan/kilogram, up 0.08 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.36 yuan/kilogram, up 0.02 yuan; the average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.14 yuan/kilogram, up 0.02 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.22 days, up 0.18 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.12 days, up 0.2 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12792.51 tons, down 110.81 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales area is 7937 tons, up 410 tons [2] Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong, the main production area, is 5.04 yuan/kilogram, down 0.16 yuan from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 4.90 yuan/kilogram, down 0.09 yuan; in Guangdong, it is 6.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.20 yuan; in Beijing, it is 5.30 yuan/kilogram, down 0.20 yuan [2]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.04」 聚乙烯市场周报 研究员：林静宜 添加客服 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员：徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 价格：本周聚乙烯主力期货在7219-7340区间震荡。截至2025年7月2日收盘，L2509合约报收于7282 元/吨，较上周收盘下跌0.27%。 基本面：供应端，本周停车、重启装置变动密集，PE产量环比+3.95%至61.89万吨，产能利用率环比 +3.02%至79.46%。需求端，本周PE下游制品平均开工率环比-0.09%，持续季节性下降。库存方面， 生产企业库存环比-2.19%至43.84万吨，社会库存环比+9.09%至50.71万吨，总库存压力不大。成本利 润方面，本周油制LLDPE成本环比-4.23%至7646元/吨，油制利润环比+152元/吨至-310元/吨；煤制 LLDPE成本环比+0.22%至5869元/吨，煤制利润环比-189元/吨至1364 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main PVC futures price fluctuated in the range of 4807 - 4956. As of the close on July 4, 2025, the V2509 contract closed at 4906 yuan/ton, down 0.26% from last week's close [9]. - On the supply side, affected by the shutdown and maintenance of plants such as Ningxia Yinglite and Inner Mongolia Sanlian this week, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.65% month - on - month to 77.44%. On the demand side, the downstream PVC operating rate increased by 0.1% month - on - month to 42.88%, among which the pipe operating rate increased by 0.94% month - on - month to 39.5%, and the profile operating rate decreased by 0.25% month - on - month to 34.75%. In terms of inventory, this week's PP commercial inventory decreased by 0.09% month - on - month to 78.51 tons, at a neutral level in the same period of the past three years. In terms of cost, this week, the national average cost of the calcium carbide method increased slightly to 5109 yuan/ton, and the national average cost of the ethylene method increased to 5647 yuan/ton. The losses of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method processes deepened to varying degrees [9]. - In July, domestic PVC plants will have centralized maintenance. Next week, plants such as Shanxi Yushe, Yanhu Haina, and Ordos have shutdown plans, and it is expected that the capacity utilization rate will maintain a downward trend. In July, plants such as Wanhua, Bohua, and Tianjin Dagu are planned to be put into production. The policy to promote the withdrawal of backward production capacity is expected to relieve the future supply pressure. It is the off - season for domestic downstream demand, and the demand in the Indian market is suppressed by the rainy season. The Indian BIS certification has been postponed to mid - December, and the anti - dumping policy may be implemented in early July. In terms of cost, the impact of power rationing in Inner Mongolia has weakened, and some calcium carbide plants have resumed production; the United States has revoked the restrictions on ethane exports to China, which may drive down the cost of the ethylene method in the future. In the short term, the expectation of production capacity withdrawal and real - estate support policies gives room for the premium of the main futures contract, but the contract price is suppressed by the weak supply - demand and cost in the real market. It is expected that V2509 will fluctuate weakly next week. Technically, pay attention to the support around 4810 and the resistance around 4960 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Price: The main PVC futures price fluctuated in the range of 4807 - 4956. The V2509 contract closed at 4906 yuan/ton, down 0.26% from last week [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply - side capacity utilization decreased by 0.65% to 77.44%; demand - side downstream operating rate increased by 0.1% to 42.88%, with pipe operating rate up 0.94% and profile operating rate down 0.25%. PP commercial inventory decreased by 0.09% to 78.51 tons. Calcium carbide method cost rose to 5109 yuan/ton, and ethylene method cost rose to 5647 yuan/ton, with losses deepening [9]. - Outlook: July has centralized plant maintenance, capacity utilization is expected to decline. New plant launches and policy - driven capacity withdrawal may relieve supply pressure. It's the off - season for domestic demand, and Indian demand is affected by the rainy season. Cost may decline. The futures contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - The V2509 contract fluctuated. The registered warehouse receipt volume increased slightly. The main contract's open interest fluctuated slightly, and the 9 - 1 spread weakened slightly [10][13]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - CFR China quoted at 700 dollars (- 20); Southeast Asia quoted at 660 dollars (- 20); India quoted at 720 dollars (- 20). The spot prices of calcium carbide method and ethylene method PVC in East China fluctuated slightly. The basis was slightly weak, and the futures contract was at a premium [20][25][28]. 3.3 Industry Conditions 3.3.1 Upstream - The price of semi - coke remained stable, and calcium carbide was slightly stronger. The semi - coke operating rate was 39.59%, and the calcium carbide operating rate was 63.86%. The VCM CIF intermediate price was 520 dollars/ton, and the EDC international price was 184 dollars/ton [36][41][45]. 3.3.2 Industry Chain - Supply: The PVC capacity growth rate in 2025 is expected to be 10.77%. The output in June was 1.9913 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. The capacity utilization rate decreased week - on - week [49][53]. - Demand: The pipe operating rate increased week - on - week, and the profile operating rate decreased. The export of PVC floor products in May decreased month - on - month. In May, imports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while exports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [57][61][64]. - Inventory: PVC social inventory changed from destocking to stocking [69]. - Cost: The cost of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method increased week - on - week [73]. - Profit: The losses of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method processes deepened [80]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was reported at 12.99%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 21.7% [86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The iron ore market is influenced by both macro and industrial factors. Macro factors, including tariff disturbances and anti - cut - throat competition governance, have a significant impact on the sentiment of the black - series commodities. Industrially, the supply of iron ore has little change, inventory increases slightly, and hot metal production remains at a high level, providing demand support. Overall, considering the market situation, the I2509 contract is recommended for range trading, and attention should be paid to operation rhythm and risk control. Also, it is suggested to continue holding short positions in out - of - the - money call options [8][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary 3.1.1 Price - As of July 4th, the closing price of the iron ore main contract was 732.5 (+16) yuan/ton, and the price of Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 773 (+18) yuan/dry ton [6]. 3.1.2 Shipment - The total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2,882.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 178.5 million tons. From June 23rd to June 29th, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,357.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 149.1 million tons [5][6]. 3.1.3 Arrival - From June 23rd to June 29th, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2,413.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 359.4 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2,363.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 199.7 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,217.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 63.7 million tons [6]. 3.1.4 Demand - The daily average hot metal production was 2.4085 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.44 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.53 million tons [6]. 3.1.5 Inventory - As of July 4th, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14,485.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.67 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1,109.76 million tons. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 8,918.57 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 71.1 million tons [6]. 3.1.6 Profit Rate - The profit rate of steel mills was 59.31%, remaining the same as last week and a year - on - year increase of 14.72 percentage points [6]. 3.1.7 Market Outlook - Macro: Overseas, Trump's tariff policies and trade agreements with Vietnam have an impact; domestically, the central government emphasizes anti - cut - throat competition and the National Development and Reform Commission allocates over 300 billion yuan for the third - batch of "two major" construction projects in 2025. - Supply - demand: The shipment and arrival of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decrease, while the domestic port inventory continues to increase slightly. The blast furnace operating rate and hot metal production of steel mills decline but remain at a high level, and the demand for hot metal still provides support. - Technical: The I2509 contract of iron ore moves upwards, with the daily K - line above multiple moving averages; the MACD indicator shows that DIFF and DEA continue to rise, and the red bars expand. - Strategy: Considering the macro and industrial situations, the I2509 contract is recommended for range trading, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price - This week, the I2509 contract fluctuated strongly. It was weaker than the I2601 contract, with the spread on the 4th being 25.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5 yuan/ton [14]. 3.2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions - On July 4th, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 3,300, a week - on - week increase of 300. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the iron ore futures contract was 44,788, a decrease of 4,795 compared to last week [21]. 3.2.3 Spot Price - On July 4th, the price of 61% Australian Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 773 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 18 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was stronger than the futures price, with the basis on the 4th being 41 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton [27]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Arrival Volume - From June 23rd to June 29th, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 149.1 million tons week - on - week, and the shipment from Australia and Brazil decreased by 178.5 million tons week - on - week. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports decreased by 359.4 million tons week - on - week, while the arrival volume at six northern ports increased by 63.7 million tons week - on - week [30]. 3.3.2 Inventory - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14,485.90 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.67 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 3.3419 million tons, a decrease of 475,000 tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills was 8,918.57 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 71.10 million tons; the daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills was 3.0081 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 440,000 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.65 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.28 days [33]. 3.3.3 Inventory Availability - As of July 3rd, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore for domestic large - and medium - sized steel mills was 19 days, remaining the same as last week. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) on July 3rd was 1,434, a week - on - week decrease of 87 [38]. 3.3.4 Import and Mine Capacity Utilization - In May, China's iron ore imports decreased by 5 million tons compared to the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 4.9%; from January to May, the cumulative imports decreased by 5.2% year - on - year. As of June 27th, the capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 65.49%, a month - on - month increase of 4.17%; the daily output of concentrate powder was 413,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26,300 tons; the inventory was 532,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 51,700 tons [41]. 3.3.5 Iron Ore Production - In May 2025, China's iron ore raw ore production was 85.787 million tons; from January to May, the cumulative production decreased by 10.1% year - on - year. In May, the iron concentrate powder production of 433 domestic iron mines was 24.066 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.051 million tons, an increase of 4.6%; from January to May, the cumulative production decreased by 10.645 million tons, a decrease of 8.5% [44]. 3.4 Downstream Situation 3.4.1 Crude Steel Production - In May 2025, China's crude steel production was 86.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%; from January to May, the cumulative production decreased by 1.7% year - on - year [48]. 3.4.2 Steel Import and Export - In May 2025, China's steel exports were 10.578 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 116,000 tons, an increase of 1.1%; from January to May, the cumulative exports increased by 8.9% year - on - year. In May, China's steel imports were 481,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 41,000 tons, a decrease of 7.9%; from January to May, the cumulative imports decreased by 16.1% year - on - year [48]. 3.4.3 Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Hot Metal Production - On July 4th, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36 percentage points, a year - on - year increase of 0.65 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.54 percentage points, a year - on - year increase of 1.21 percentage points. The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 2.4085 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.44 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.53 million tons [51]. 3.5 Options Market - Due to the anti - cut - throat competition policy boosting the black - series commodities and the increasing iron ore port inventory with potential long - term supply pressure, it is recommended to continue holding short positions in out - of - the - money call options [54].

苯乙烯市场周报 研究员：林静宜 添加客服 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员：徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.04」 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 价格：本周苯乙烯现货受供需偏弱影响下跌，期货价格随国际油价小幅走强，基差部分收敛。截至2025年7 月4日收盘，EB2508合约报收于7340元/吨，较上周收盘价上涨0.58%。 基本面：供应端，本周降负、重启装置并存，苯乙烯产量环比-0.05%至36.66万吨，产能利用率环比-0.05% 至80.03%。需求端，本周下游开工率出现不同程度下降：EPS开工率环比-3.84%至55.88%，PS开工率环 比-5%至52.4%，ABS开工率环比-0.96%至65.04%，UPR开工率环比-1%至29%，丁苯橡胶开工率环比- 0.43%至73.66%。库存方面，本周工厂库存环比-2.99%至19.40万吨，华东港口库存环比+16.24%至9.88万 吨，华南港口库存 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.04」 螺纹钢市场周报 反内卷政策助力 螺纹期价向上走高 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 取 更 多 资 讯 1. 价格及价差：截至7月4日收盘，螺纹主力合约期价3072（+77），杭州螺纹中天现货价格3240（+110）。（单 位：元/吨） 2. 产量：螺纹产量继续上调。221.08（+3.24）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求好于预期，再度增加。本期表需224.87（+4.96），（同比-9.91）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库和社库一降一增，波动幅度不大。螺纹钢总库存545.21（-3.79），（同比-241.38）。（单位：万 吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率59.31%，环比上周持平，同比去年增加14.72个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）特朗普表示，到7月9日，"将全面覆盖，关税 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the spot supply and demand of caustic soda in Shandong were weak, the market price of liquid caustic soda declined, the sentiment in the market improved, the price of the futures main contract rose, and the basis converged. As of the close on July 4, 2025, the SH2509 contract closed at 2,380 yuan/ton, up 2.63% from last week's close; the converted 100% price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped to around 2,406 yuan/ton [8]. - In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, affected by the increase in maintenance devices this week, the capacity utilization rate in each region mainly decreased, and the national average utilization rate decreased by 2.0% to 80.5%. On the demand side, last week, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.07% to 80.67%; this week, the viscose staple fiber operating rate decreased by 3.4% to 75.17%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.13% to 60.18%. In terms of inventory, this week, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories decreased by 1.58% to 38.42 tons, which was at a moderately high level compared to the same period. This week, the chlor-alkali profit dropped to around 294 yuan/ton, which was at a neutral level compared to the same period. In July, the purchase prices of alumina plants in Shandong and other places were lowered, and the converted 100% price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped to around 2,406 yuan/ton [8]. - Looking ahead, the planned maintenance capacity in July will decrease. Affected by the restart of shut - down devices and the launch of new production capacity, there is an expectation of an increase in caustic soda supply, but the low price of liquid chlorine restricts the room for improvement in the operating rate. The alumina price is weak, the profit is meager, and the growth of the operating rate is lackluster. The previous high delivery volume of caustic soda plants to alumina enterprises has led to implicit inventory pressure, which restricts future demand. The demand in the non - aluminum off - season is weak, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase based on rigid demand. As the future supply increases, the spot price will still face some pressure against the backdrop of limited demand. In the futures market, the replenishment expectation before the non - aluminum peak season provides some support for the price of the 09 contract, but the rebound space is limited in the absence of positive fundamentals. Technically, the SH2509 contract should pay attention to the support around 2,300 and the resistance around 2,500 [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Price: The spot price of caustic soda in Shandong decreased, while the futures price increased, and the basis converged. The SH2509 contract closed at 2,380 yuan/ton, up 2.63% from last week, and the converted 100% price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped to around 2,406 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply decreased with the national average capacity utilization rate dropping to 80.5%. Demand from alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing industries weakened. Inventory decreased by 1.58% to 38.42 tons, and the chlor - alkali profit dropped to around 294 yuan/ton [8]. - Outlook: Supply is expected to increase, but the low price of liquid chlorine restricts the operating rate. Demand is weak, and the spot price will face pressure. The futures price has some support but limited rebound space [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - The main caustic soda contract fluctuated and rose this week, and the position volume of the 09 contract decreased [9]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - Shandong: The benchmark price of 32% liquid caustic soda was 780 yuan/ton, with a converted 100% price of 2,438 yuan/ton. The price of 99% flake caustic soda was 3,150 yuan/ton, and the price of liquid chlorine was - 300 yuan/ton [15][37]. - Henan: The market price of 32% liquid caustic soda was 864 yuan/ton, with a converted 100% price of 2,700 yuan/ton [27]. - Inner Mongolia: The market price of 32% liquid caustic soda was 880 yuan/ton, with a converted 100% price of 2,750 yuan/ton [32]. - Basis: The spot price decreased while the futures price increased, leading to a convergence of the basis [22]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - Raw salt: The prices of raw salt in the Northwest and Shandong remained stable [44]. - Steam coal: The price of Qinhuangdao 5500K steam coal rose to 621 yuan/ton [49]. 3.3.2 Industry Chain - Supply: In June, the caustic soda output was 3.4167 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.56%. This week, the operating rate dropped to 80.5% [52]. - Demand: The alumina output in May was 7.6323 million tons, and the operating rate last week was 80.67%. This week, the viscose staple fiber operating rate was 75.17%. The prices of alumina and viscose staple fiber remained stable [57][61][64]. - Import and export: In May, the caustic soda import was 0.05 tons, and the cumulative import from January to May was 0.33 tons. In May, the caustic soda export was 33.09 tons, and the cumulative export from January to May was 1.349 million tons [70][76]. - Inventory: The weekly sample inventory of liquid caustic soda was 38.42 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.58% [81]. - Profit: The chlor - alkali profit in Shandong decreased and was at a neutral level compared to the same period [84]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of caustic soda futures was 15.27%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 23.27% [87].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.04」 热轧卷板市场周报 终端需求韧性较强 热卷期价重心上移 添加客服 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）特朗普表示，到7月9日，"将全面覆盖，关税税率可能从60%-70%到10%-20%"。特朗普称各国"将于8 月1日开始支付新关税"。（2）美国总统特朗普宣布与越南达成贸易协议，越南对美出口商品将被征收20%关税，任何转运货物 将被征收40%的关税。另外，越南已同意取消对进口美国商品的所有税费。国内，（1）中央财经委员会强调依法依规治理企业 低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出。（2）国家发改委近日安排超3000亿元支持2025年第三批"两 重"建设项目。至此，今年8000亿元"两重"建设项目清单已全部下达完毕。 2. 供需方面:热卷周度产量延续上调，产能利用率83.83%，维持高位 ...