研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,061.00 | -11↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 2197330 | -41257↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | 11510 | -44083↓ RB10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -19 | +2↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 36441 | +7273↑ HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 130 | +1↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,210.00 | -10↓ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,292 | -10↓ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,250.00 | -10↓ 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,160.0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the precious metals market has intensified long - short games, with short - term dives in Shanghai gold and silver. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 95.3%, and the rate - cut expectation is likely to be postponed to after September, causing short - term upward resistance for gold prices. Gold may face short - term correction pressure, and if trade negotiations progress smoothly, gold prices may continue to be under pressure. In the long - term, factors like the continuous expansion of the US fiscal deficit support gold prices, but it may mainly fluctuate within a range. Silver is expected to remain firm due to a tight supply - demand structure and the restoration of its industrial attributes [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 771.3 yuan/gram, down 5.76; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 8872 yuan/kilogram, down 47. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold are 175,760 hands, up 720; those of Shanghai silver are 229,481 hands, down 21,237. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract are 141,279 hands, down 1,840; those of Shanghai silver are 85,369 hands, down 2,361. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 21,456 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver is 1,330,695 kilograms, down 9,051 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price is 767.8 yuan/gram, down 3.2; the silver spot price is 8912 yuan/kilogram, up 15. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 3.5 yuan/gram, up 2.56; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is 40 yuan/kilogram, up 62 [3] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings are 947.66 tons, unchanged; silver ETF holdings are 14,868.74 tons, up 22.62. The CFTC non - commercial net positions of gold are 195,004 contracts, down 5,644; those of silver are 62,947 contracts, down 4,227. The quarterly total supply of gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.84; the annual total supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4. The quarterly total demand for gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.83; the annual global total demand for silver is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 [3] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.01%, down 0.37; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.53%, up 0.08. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 21.01%, up 0.23; that of at - the - money put options is 21.01%, up 0.24 [3] 3.5 Industry News - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that the trade negotiations are at a dead - end in the final stage, with a busy 72 - hour period ahead. The deadline of August 1 is set, and if no agreement is reached, tariffs will return to the April level. Elon Musk founded the "American Party" on July 5, having a disagreement with Trump over the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill. Trump signed the bill, terminating clean - energy tax credits and favoring traditional energy. According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 95.3%, and in September is 30.6% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate still show a situation of excessive supply and weak demand for now, but the industry expectations have improved, and the supply - demand situation may gradually improve [2]. - The option market sentiment is bullish, with the call position dominant and the implied volatility slightly decreasing [2]. - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis and the green bars are converging [2]. - The operation suggestion is to conduct short - selling transactions on rallies with a light position and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 63,660 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 79,406 hands, up 3,550 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 322,535 hands, down 2,753 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 80 yuan/ton, down 440 yuan; the warehouse receipts on GEA are 21,036 hands/ton, down 1,844 hands [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 62,550 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 60,950 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 1,110 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 696 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 5,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 1,655 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly production of lithium carbonate is 42,100 tons, down 5,800 tons; the monthly import volume is 21,145.78 tons, down 7,190.11 tons; the monthly export volume is 286.74 tons, down 447.55 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, down 6 percentage points; the monthly production of power batteries is 123,500 MWh, up 5,300 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 28,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 50,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobalt oxide is 218,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 144,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 120,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 125,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 55%, up 2 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 30,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 49%, up 2 percentage points; the monthly production of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 1,270,000 vehicles, up 19,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,307,000 vehicles, up 81,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 43.99%, up 1.25 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume and year - on - year increase are 5,608,000 vehicles, up 1,713,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 212,000 vehicles, up 12,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume and year - on - year increase are 855,000 vehicles, up 336,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 21.65%, up 0.03 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 24.77%, down 0.46 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position is 188,165 contracts, up 10,192 contracts; the total put position is 100,314 contracts, down 1,986 contracts; the put - call ratio of the total position is 53.31%, down 4.1689 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.22%, down 0.0065 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - GGII: From January to May, the cumulative global sales of new energy vehicles were 6.975 million, a year - on - year increase of 28%, driving the global power battery installed capacity to about 369.8 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 35%. China's power battery installed capacity accounted for 61.4% of the global share, and six of the top ten enterprises were from China [2]. - According to Cui Dongshu, the secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, in May 2025, the transaction volume of the national second - hand car market was 1.604 million, a month - on - month decrease of 6% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%, and the transaction amount was 103 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. From January to May, the cumulative transaction volume of second - hand cars was 7.91 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, and the transaction amount was 516.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.1% [2]. - According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing purchasing managers' index in June was 49.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, rising month - on - month for two consecutive months. Although the index is still in the contraction range, the consecutive two - month slight increase reflects that the global economic recovery strength has rebounded [2]. - The US House of Representatives passed a comprehensive tax and expenditure reform bill led by President Trump. The major adjustment of the subsidy mechanism for electric vehicles (EV) has attracted wide market attention. The $7,500 federal tax credit for new cars and the $4,000 credit for second - hand cars will officially end on September 30, which is expected to have a profound impact on the US new energy vehicle market [2].

关需求疲软，光伏玻璃需求也面临库存压力。基差维持正常范围，后续市场交易更多是政策预期，预计反 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 弹高度和力度将较为有限，操作上短线建议逢低多，中长线依旧维持逢高空思维。 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-07-07 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 1168 149 | -6 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 1 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1019 1801178 | -7 100920 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1587598 | 45540 纯碱前20名净持仓 | ...

生猪产业日报 2025-07-07 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 14245 | -60 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 73418 | -3761 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 447 | -3 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -11481 | -917 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 15000 | -200 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 14600 | -100 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | 16600 | -900 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | 755 | -140 | | 上游情况 | 生猪存栏(月,万头) | 41731 | -1012 生猪存栏:能繁母猪(月,万头) | 4042 | 4 | | 产业情况 | CPI:当月同比(月,%) | -0.1 | 0 现货价:豆粕:张家港(日,元/吨) | 2800 | -20 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term of the MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2430 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate decreased last week, and the Sinopec Zhongyuan olefin plant is planned to stop this week, so the operating rate may continue to decline [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2392 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 685,709 lots, a decrease of 9,054 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 98,061 lots, a decrease of 5,204 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8,625, a decrease of 30 [3] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2415 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1995 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The East - Northwest price difference is 420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 23 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton. CFR China Main Port is 282 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton; CFR Southeast Asia is 340 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton. FOB Rotterdam is 248 euros/ton, a decrease of 7 euros/ton; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia price difference is - 58 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.39 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.01 US dollars [3] Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 50.95 million tons, an increase of 1.35 million tons; in South China ports, it is 16.42 million tons, a decrease of 1.03 million tons. The methanol import profit is 1.27 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.47 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 129.23 million tons, an increase of 50.46 million tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 352,300 tons, an increase of 10,700 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate is 88.18%, a decrease of 3.13 percentage points [3] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 46.07%, a decrease of 2.88 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 5.19%, a decrease of 3.97 percentage points; the acetic acid operating rate is 93.42%, a decrease of 1.93 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate is 65.06%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points; the olefin operating rate is 84.6%, a decrease of 2.81 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefins disk profit is - 919 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 29.45%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 24.89%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 18.53%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.68%, unchanged [3] Industry News - As of July 2, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 352,300 tons, an increase of 10,700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.14%; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 241,300 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.23%. Due to the sub - optimal recovery of some olefin plants in the Northwest and the normal operation of supporting methanol plants, enterprise inventory accumulated rapidly. As of July 2, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 673,700 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 13,500 tons, while that in South China decreased by 10,300 tons. Recently, the production capacity loss from domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts was more than the production capacity output from recovery, resulting in a slight decrease in overall production [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 7, the SM2509 contract closed at 5,646 yuan/ton, down 0.77%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia ferromanganese was reported at 5,520 yuan/ton. The Central Financial and Economic Commission's Sixth Meeting emphasized eliminating backward production capacity and anti - involution. The factory's operating rate has rebounded for 6 consecutive weeks at a low level, and the overall inventory remains high. The port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 26,000 tons this period, and the downstream hot metal production is running at a high level. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia it is - 170 yuan/ton. Steel mills' procurement is cautious, and the tender price continues to decline. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the market should be treated as a volatile one [2]. - On July 7, the SF2509 contract closed at 5,364 yuan/ton, down 0.74%. The spot price of Ningxia ferrosilicon was reported at 5,250 yuan/ton. Trump said that the new tariffs will "most likely" take effect on August 1. The operating rate is running at a low level. The cost of Ningxia semi - coke has decreased, and the steel demand expectation is still weak overall. The current production profit of ferroalloys is negative. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 330 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia it is - 150 yuan/ton. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the market should be treated as a volatile one [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价为5,646元/吨，较昨日下跌2元；SF主力合约收盘价为5,364元/吨，较昨日持平 [2]。 - SM期货合约持仓量为587,310手，较昨日减少2,318手；SF期货合约持仓量为405,006手，较昨日减少308手 [2]。 - 锰硅前20名净持仓为 - 34,158手，较昨日增加144手；硅铁前20名净持仓为 - 45,631手，较昨日减少3,557手 [2]。 - SM1 - 9月合约价差为52元/吨，较昨日增加8元；SF1 - 9月合约价差为12元/吨，较昨日增加12元 [2]。 - SM仓单为88,213张，较昨日减少473张；SF仓单为12,587张，较昨日增加310张 [2]。 3.2 Spot Market - 内蒙古锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,520元/吨，较昨日下跌30元；贵州锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,520元/吨，较昨日下跌30元；云南锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,500元/吨，较昨日持平 [2]。 - 内蒙古硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,270元/吨，较昨日下跌30元；青海硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,200元/吨，较昨日持平；宁夏硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,250元/吨，较昨日下跌30元 [2]。 - 锰硅指数均值为5,531元/吨，较上周增加41元；SF主力合约基差为 - 114元/吨，较昨日下跌30元；SM主力合约基差为 - 126元/吨，较昨日下跌28元 [2]。 3.3 Upstream Situation - 南非矿Mn38块天津港价格为35元/吨度，较昨日持平；硅石（98%西北）价格为210元/吨，较昨日持平 [2]。 - 内蒙古乌海二级冶金焦价格为850元/吨，较昨日持平；兰炭（中料神木）价格为640元/吨，较昨日持平 [2]。 - 锰矿港口库存为425万吨，较上周增加2.6万吨 [2]。 3.4 Industry Situation - 锰硅企业开工率为40.34%，较上周增加1.13个百分点；硅铁企业开工率为31.95%，较上周增加0.25个百分点 [2]。 - 锰硅供应为180,110吨，较上周增加875吨；硅铁供应为100,200吨，较上周增加2,700吨 [2]。 - 锰硅厂家库存为222,300吨，较半月前增加500吨；硅铁厂家库存为6.7万吨，较半月前减少0.24万吨 [2]。 - 锰硅全国钢厂库存可用天数为15.15天，较上月减少0.29天；硅铁全国钢厂库存可用天数为15.20天，较上月减少0.24天 [2]。 3.5 Downstream Situation - 五大钢种锰硅需求为126,789吨，较上周增加908吨；五大钢种硅铁需求为20,481.7吨，较上周增加127.5吨 [2]。 - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.44%，较上周下降0.4个百分点；247家钢厂高炉产能利用率为90.27%，较上周下降0.58个百分点 [2]。 - 粗钢产量为8,654.5万吨，较上月增加52.6万吨 [2]。 3.6 Industry News - 当地时间7月4日，美国总统特朗普表示美国政府将从当天起致函贸易伙伴设定新的单边关税税率，新关税“十有八九”从8月1日开始生效，关税税率可能在60%、70%到10%、20%不等 [2]。 - 中国物流与采购联合会称6月份全球制造业采购经理指数为49.5%，较上月上升0.3个百分点，连续两个月环比上升 [2]。 - 印度4日向世界贸易组织通报，因美国对汽车及零部件加征关税冲击印度出口，印度计划对美国征收报复性关税 [2]。 - 美国总统特朗普当地时间7月4日签署“大而美”税收和支出法案，提前终止多项清洁能源税收抵免，而油气等传统能源获大幅倾斜 [2]。

铁矿石产业链日报 2025/7/7 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构 成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、 复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 731.00 | -1.50↓ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 647,845 | -3972↓ | | | I 9-1合约价差（元/吨） | 27 | +1.50↑ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -44642 | +146↑ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 3, ...

红枣产业日报 2025-07-07 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) | 10450 | | 35 主力合约持仓量:红枣(日,手) | 136348 | 974 0 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:红枣(日,手) | -8406 | | 7399 仓单数量:红枣(日,张) | 8699 | | | | 有效仓单预报:红枣:小计(日,张) | 1554 | 62 | | | | | 现货市场 | 喀什红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) | 6 | | 0 河北一级灰枣批发价格(日,元/斤) | 4.35 | 0 | | | 阿拉尔红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) | 5.2 | | 0 河南一级灰枣批发价格(日,元/斤) | 4.35 | 0 | | | 阿克苏红枣统货价格(日,单位:元/公斤) | 4.8 | | 0 河南红枣特级价格(元/公斤) | 9.8 | 0 | | | 河北红枣特级价格(元/公斤) | 9. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Report's Core View - The PMI in June shows that the domestic economic prosperity generally maintains an expansion trend, suggesting an increase in stock market holdings based on fundamentals. The State Council's emphasis on strengthening the main position of enterprise technological innovation is expected to bring more benefits to growth - style technology stocks. However, the potential restart of the US - China trade war poses a negative impact on the market. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy for now [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - IF main contract (2509) is at 3918.0, down 12.0; IF sub - main contract (2507) is at 3945.0, down 12.4. IH main contract (2509) is at 2708.0, down 3.2; IH sub - main contract (2507) is at 2713.6, down 3.8. IC main contract (2509) is at 5747.6, down 12.4; IC sub - main contract (2507) is at 5859.2, down 10.8. IM main contract (2509) is at 6111.6, up 4.4; IM sub - main contract (2507) is at 6267.2, up 8.0 [2] - IF - IH current - month contract spread is 1231.4, down 9.4; IC - IF current - month contract spread is 1914.2, up 3.8. IM - IC current - month contract spread is 408.0, up 20.2; IC - IH current - month contract spread is 3145.6, down 5.6. IM - IF current - month contract spread is 2322.2, up 24.0; IM - IH current - month contract spread is 3553.6, up 14.6 [2] - IF current - quarter minus current - month is - 27.0, up 0.8; IF next - quarter minus current - month is - 62, up 2.8. IH current - quarter minus current - month is - 5.6, up 0.2; IH next - quarter minus current - month is - 5.8, up 2.2. IC current - quarter minus current - month is - 111.6, down 2.8; IC next - quarter minus current - month is - 235.4, down 3.4. IM current - quarter minus current - month is - 155.6, down 5.8; IM next - quarter minus current - month is - 340.6, down 10.8 [2] Futures Position - IF top 20 net position is - 30,779.00, up 4.0; IH top 20 net position is - 12,713.00, down 181.0. IC top 20 net position is 8,978.00, down 99.0; IM top 20 net position is - 34,962.00, down 2800.0 [2] Spot Price - CSI 300 is at 3965.17, down 17.0; IF main contract basis is - 47.2, down 1.0. SSE 50 is at 2731.53, down 8.9; IH main contract basis is - 23.5, down 0.3. CSI 500 is at 5900.41, down 11.0; IC main contract basis is - 152.8, down 6.8. CSI 1000 main contract basis is - 2274.53 [2] Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume is 6327.14 billion yuan, up 14.9%. Margin trading balance is 18,529.27 billion yuan, down 15.5%. Northbound trading volume is 1591.20 billion yuan, up 127.31 billion yuan. Reverse repurchase (maturity, operation amount) is - 3315.0 billion yuan, up 1065.0 billion yuan. Main funds (yesterday, today) are - 321.43 billion yuan and - 178.63 billion yuan respectively [2] - The proportion of rising stocks is 60.08%, up 38.50%. Shibor is 1.312%, down 0.001%. IO at - the - money call option closing price (2507) is 31.80, down 10.40; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility is 11.05%, up 0.37%. IO at - the - money put option closing price (2507) is 35.20, up 8.00; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility is 11.05%, up 0.32% [2] - CSI 300 index 20 - day volatility is 9.33%, up 0.19%. Volume PCR is 60.51%, up 12.79%. Position PCR is 70.09%, down 2.52% [2] Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares score 5.40, up 2.00; technical aspect scores 6.00, up 3.90; capital aspect scores 4.80, up 0.10 [2] Industry News - China's official manufacturing PMI in June is 49.7, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; non - manufacturing business activity index is 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points; comprehensive PMI output index is 50.7%, up 0.3 percentage points [2] - US President Trump said on July 4th that the US government will start sending letters to trading partners to set new unilateral tariff rates, which are likely to take effect on August 1st, and the new tariff rates may range from 10% - 20% to 60% - 70% [2] - As of July 6th, 54 A - share listed companies have disclosed their semi - annual performance forecasts for 2025, including 11 with slight increases, 3 turning losses into profits, 4 with continued profits, and 21 with pre - increases [2] Market Performance - A - share major indices generally declined. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.02%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.7%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.21%. Trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased significantly. About 3200 stocks rose. Industry sectors showed mixed performance, with the comprehensive and public utilities sectors strengthening and the coal sector leading the decline [2]