Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market was influenced by macro - sentiment, with rubber prices fluctuating. Imported rubber market offer prices rose, but actual transaction prices weakened. Futures prices fluctuated higher with an unstable center. Domestic natural rubber spot prices adjusted slightly, and downstream demand was weak [7]. - Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting to tap. In Yunnan, weather disturbances persist, and raw material acquisition is difficult with firm prices. In Hainan, the resumption of tapping is slow, and raw material supply is limited. Qingdao port's total spot inventory continues to increase significantly, with bonded warehouses slightly reducing inventory and general trade warehouses continuing to accumulate large amounts of inventory. Downstream enterprises are mainly digesting inventory [7]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased. Next week, as enterprise maintenance ends, production will recover, which will boost the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises [7]. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,900 - 14,500 in the short - term, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,500 in the short - term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market was driven by macro - sentiment, with rubber prices fluctuating. Imported rubber offer prices rose, but actual transaction prices weakened. Futures prices fluctuated higher, and domestic spot prices adjusted slightly. Downstream demand was weak [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting to tap. Yunnan has weather problems, and Hainan's tapping recovery is slow. Qingdao port's inventory is increasing. This week, tire enterprise capacity utilization decreased, and it will recover next week [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 13,900 - 14,500, and the nr2508 contract between 12,000 - 12,500 in the short - term [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price Movement**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fell by 0.28% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber fell by 1.1% week - on - week [12]. - **Spread**: As of July 4, the spread between September and January contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 865, and the spread between August and September contracts of 20 - rubber was 10 [21]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of July 4, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 188,850 tons, a decrease of 3,110 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 29,736 tons, an increase of 2,118 tons from last week [25]. - **Spot Market** - **Price and Basis**: As of July 3, the price of state - owned whole latex was 14,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of 20 - rubber was 207 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton from last week, and the non - standard basis was - 115 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [31][36]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - **Thailand**: As of July 3, the price of field latex in Thailand was 54.5 (- 2.5) baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 48.55 (+ 1.4) baht/kg. As of July 4, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 6.6 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.8 dollars/ton from last week [40]. - **Domestic**: As of July 3, the price of Yunnan latex was 13,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week, and the price of Hainan fresh latex was 13,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [43]. - **Import**: In May 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 453,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.35% and a year - on - year increase of 30.41%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 2.6623 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.25% [47]. - **Inventory**: As of June 29, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,800 tons, an increase of 2.40%. The bonded area inventory was 80,700 tons, a decrease of 0.62%, and the general trade inventory was 551,400 tons, an increase of 2.85% [51]. - **Downstream** - **Tire Start - up Rate**: As of July 3, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.13%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.27 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 15.85 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.70 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.96 percentage points [54]. - **Tire Exports**: In May 2025, China's tire exports were 758,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to May, the cumulative tire exports were 3.4042 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [57]. - **Domestic Demand**: In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. From January to June, the cumulative sales of heavy - trucks were about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [60]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant information provided.

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.04」 鸡蛋市场周报 现货维位偏弱运行 盘面有止跌回暖倾向 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 策略建议：轻仓试多远月合约。 Ø 鸡蛋： Ø 行情回顾：本周鸡蛋震荡收涨，08合约收盘价为3582元/500千克，较前一周+39元/500千克。 Ø 行情展望：鸡蛋步入季节性需求淡季，且目前蛋鸡存栏量处于高位，前期补栏的蛋鸡新开产压力 较大，鸡蛋供应比较充足。同时，受梅雨季节影响，高温高湿气候下鸡蛋存储成本增加，下游经 销商采购谨慎，蛋价持续处于同期偏低水平，养殖端也持续处于亏损状态。不过，价格来到相对 低位后，老鸡淘汰进程有所加快，降低存栏预期。盘面来看，期价跌至低估值区域后，近来有止 跌回暖倾向。 「 期现市场情况」 期价走势及前二十名持仓 图1、大商所鸡蛋主力合约期货价格走势 图2、大商所鸡蛋指数期货前二十名持仓变化 3 来 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main Zhengzhou cotton 2509 contract rose by about 0.15%, while the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract fell by 0.52%. Internationally, weak US cotton weekly export sales and favorable weather for crop growth limited the rebound of US cotton. Domestically, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with poor new orders and a slow decline in the overall operating rate. Cotton is in the process of destocking, but the destocking speed is slow due to the off - season, showing a slightly stronger overall oscillation. The high - temperature weather in Xinjiang poses a risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Analysis**: The main Zhengzhou cotton 2509 contract rose by about 0.15% this week, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract fell by 0.52% [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Weak US cotton export sales, favorable weather for growth and a rise in the good - quality rate limited the rebound of US cotton. In China, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with poor new orders and a slow decline in the operating rate. Cotton is destocking slowly. The high - temperature weather in Xinjiang poses risks [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract fell by about 1.28% this week. As of June 24, 2025, the non - commercial long - position of ICE No. 2 cotton increased by 5.61% month - on - month, the non - commercial short - position decreased by 1.86% month - on - month, and the CFTC net position increased by 14.91% month - on - month [9]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: For the week ending June 26, US current - market - year cotton export sales increased by 23,700 bales, a 13% decrease from the previous week and a 66% decrease from the four - week average. Next - market - year export sales increased by 106,600 bales. US cotton export shipments were 255,800 bales, a 39% increase from the previous week and a 9% increase from the four - week average. As of July 1, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was 78.9 cents per pound, a 1.56% decrease month - on - month [14]. - **Futures Market**: The main Zhengzhou cotton 2509 contract rose by about 0.15% this week, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract fell by 0.52%. As of this week, the top - 20 net position of cotton futures was - 27,247, and that of cotton yarn futures was - 113. The cotton futures warehouse receipt was 10,067, and the cotton yarn futures warehouse receipt was 2 [17][24][30]. - **Spot Market**: As of July 4, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,200 yuan per ton, and the Chinese cotton yarn spot C32S index price was 20,420 yuan per ton. As of July 3, 2025, the CY index:OEC10s (rotor yarn) was 14,560 yuan per ton [35][45]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of July 2, 2025, the imported cotton price index (FC Index):M:1% quota port pick - up price was 13,667 yuan per ton, a 0.15% decrease month - on - month; the sliding - scale duty port pick - up price was 14,400 yuan per ton, a 0.06% decrease month - on - month. As of June 25, 2025, the imported cotton yarn price index (FCY Index):port pick - up price:C32S was 20,997 yuan per ton, a 0.10% increase month - on - month [51]. - **Imported Cotton Cost - Profit**: As of July 2, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 763 yuan per ton; the cost - profit of imported cotton quota port pick - up price (1%) was 1,496 yuan per ton [55]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of May, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a 16.71% decrease month - on - month and an 8.36% decrease year - on - year. As of the end of May, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 941,100 tons, a 13,100 - ton decrease month - on - month [59]. - **Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In May 2025, China imported about 40,000 tons of cotton, a 20,000 - ton decrease month - on - month and an 86.3% decrease year - on - year. From September 2024 to May 2025, China imported about 920,000 tons of cotton. In May 2025, China's cotton yarn import volume was 100,000 tons, a 14.5% decrease year - on - year and a 16.67% decrease month - on - month [63]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side**: As of the end of May, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 22.34 days, an increase of 1.36 days from the previous month. The grey fabric inventory was 31.2 days, an increase of 1.72 days from the previous month [67]. - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative export of textile and clothing was 838.33 billion yuan, a 2.1% increase year - on - year. In May, the export of textile and clothing was 188.84 billion yuan, a 0.2% increase year - on - year and an 8.9% increase month - on - month. As of May 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 613.8 billion yuan, a 3.3% increase year - on - year [71][73]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - related Market - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week is presented, but no specific data is given [75]. - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd.**: Information about the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. is presented, but no specific data is given [80].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.04」 贵金属市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 ◆ 行情回顾：本周贵金属市场受关税政策预期反复、美联储降息博弈及就业数据扰动影响，整体呈震荡偏强 走势。周初白宫宣布中美达成协议暂缓对等关税，市场避险情绪边际降温，金价上行承压，但特朗普施压 美联储紧急降息及财政赤字扩张预期仍提供支撑。随后，ISM制造业PMI虽小幅回升但仍处收缩区间，叠加 ADP就业数据意外下滑，市场对非农放缓的预期升温，推动金价突破3350美元/盎司关键阻力。然而，6月非 农新增人数超出市场预期，失业率由劳动力参与率下降的作用下意外下滑，叠加ISM服务业PMI回暖，令7月 降息概率回落，美元与美债收益率反弹压制金价涨幅。尽管本次就业人数录得超预期增长，但仍有迹象表 明就业市场呈现放缓态势，主要反映出招聘活动进一步放缓，失业人群再次就业的比例显著 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc oscillated and adjusted, with a weekly gain - loss of +0.00% and an amplitude of 1.90%. The closing price of the main contract was 22,410 yuan/ton. - Macroscopically, the non - farm payrolls in the US in June exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped. The ISM services PMI index showed mixed signals, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations decreased significantly. - Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad increased, the zinc ore processing fees continued to rise, and the smelter profits were further repaired. The supply growth accelerated due to new capacity release and the resumption of previous maintenance capacity. The import window was closed, and the inflow of imported zinc decreased. The downstream entered the off - season, the processing enterprise operating rate decreased year - on - year, and the consumption gradually weakened. However, the increase in LME zinc premium and the decline in inventory overseas drove up the domestic price. - Technically, the positions decreased, and both long and short sides were cautious. The price returned to the previous operating range, and attention should be paid to the MA10 support. - Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Periodic and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: As of July 4, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc was 22,410 yuan/ton, unchanged from June 27. As of July 3, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 2,738 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 32 US dollars/ton or 1.16% from June 27. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased. [9] - **Net Positions and Total Positions**: As of June 26, 2025, the net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc were 23,127 lots, an increase of 21,680 lots from June 20. As of July 4, 2025, the position volume of Shanghai Zinc was 262,733 lots, a decrease of 7,500 lots or 2.78% from June 27. [11] - **Price Spreads**: As of July 4, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton from June 27. As of June 27, 2025, the lead - zinc futures price spread was 5,285 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton from June 20. [16] - **Spot Premiums**: As of July 4, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton or 0.88% from June 27. The spot premium was 65 yuan/ton, an increase from last week. As of July 3, 2025, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was - 21.99 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 19.71 US dollars/ton from June 26. [22] - **Inventory**: As of July 4, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 112,325 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons or 5.79% from June 27. The Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventory was 45,364 tons, an increase of 1,731 tons or 3.97% from last week. As of July 3, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 63,600 tons, an increase of 4,700 tons or 7.98% from June 26. [25] 3.2 Industry Situation - **Upstream - Zinc Ore**: ILZSG data showed that in April 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.0192 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.61% and a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. Customs data showed that in May 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 491,522.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64% and a year - on - year increase of 85.28%. [29] - **Supply - Global Refined Zinc**: ILZSG data showed that in April 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1384 million tons, an increase of 0.59 million tons or 0.52% from the same period last year. The global refined zinc consumption was 1.1224 million tons, an increase of 0.0238 million tons or 2.17% from the same period last year. The global refined zinc surplus was 0.016 million tons, compared with a surplus of 0.0339 million tons in the same period last year. The WBMS report showed that the global zinc market supply - demand balance was 0.0227 million tons in April 2024. [32] - **Supply - Chinese Refined Zinc**: National Bureau of Statistics data showed that in May 2025, the zinc output was 583,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. From January to May, the cumulative zinc output was 2.919 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. Customs data showed that in May 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 26,716.51 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%, and the export volume was 1,414.24 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.97%. [37][40] - **Downstream - Galvanized Sheets**: From January to May 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 769,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.49%. In May 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 36,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.3%, and the export volume was 338,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.57%. [43] - **Downstream - Real Estate**: From January to May 2025, the new housing construction area was 231.8361 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.95%, and the housing completion area was 183.8514 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 40.94%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 4.023241 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%, among which personal mortgage loans were 564.452 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.5%. In May 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.72, a decrease of 0.13 from the previous month and an increase of 1.81 from the same period last year. [46][47][52] - **Downstream - Infrastructure**: From January to May 2025, the infrastructure investment increased by 10.42% year - on - year. [53] - **Downstream - Home Appliances**: In May 2025, the refrigerator output was 8.51 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. From January to May, the cumulative refrigerator output was 40.713 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. The air - conditioner output was 29.48 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. From January to May, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 134.909 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. [55][56] - **Downstream - Automobiles**: In May 2025, the automobile sales volume in China was 2,686,337 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.15%, and the automobile output was 2,648,536 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.65%. [60]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of Zhengzhou jujube's main contract fluctuated this week, with a weekly decline of about 2.34%. As the weather gets hotter, seasonal fresh fruits are on the market, which substitutes for nourishing products like jujubes. It's the seasonal off - peak season for jujube demand, and inventory digestion is slow. Although the number of inquiring customers has increased and the inventory has decreased slightly, the high inventory of old fruits restricts the upward space of the futures price. The jujube trees in the producing areas are in the fruit - setting period, and the current growth is relatively good, but the yield is uncertain. Next week, there will be high - temperature weather in some parts of southern Xinjiang, which may still affect the futures price. It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou jujube 2509 contract [10][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights - Future trading reminders include weather impact and the consumer side [9]. - This week, the price of Zhengzhou jujube's main contract fluctuated, with a weekly decline of about 2.34%. The jujube market is in the off - peak season, and the inventory is slowly digested. The 36 sample physical inventories in the 27th week were 10,520 tons, a decrease of 168 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.57%, and a year - on - year increase of 71.08%. The jujube trees in the producing areas are in the fruit - setting period, and the growth is relatively good, but the yield is uncertain. Next week, there will be high - temperature weather in some parts of southern Xinjiang, which may affect the futures price. It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou jujube 2509 contract [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures price: The price of Zhengzhou jujube's main contract fluctuated this week, with a weekly decline of about 2.34% [13]. - Futures positions: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in jujube futures was - 15,805 lots [18]. - Futures warehouse receipts: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou jujube warehouse receipts was 8,699 [19]. - Futures spreads: As of this week, the spread between the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's jujube futures 2509 contract and the 2601 contract was - 990 yuan/ton [23]. - Basis: As of this week, the basis between the spot price of Hebei gray jujubes and the main contract of jujube futures was - 565 yuan/ton [24]. - Spot prices: As of July 4, 2025, the unified purchase price of Aksu jujubes was 4.8 yuan/kg, that of Alar jujubes was 5.2 yuan/kg, and that of Kashgar jujubes was 6 yuan/kg. The wholesale price of first - grade gray jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei and Henan was 4.35 yuan/jin. The wholesale price of special - grade gray jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei was 9.85 yuan/kg, and that in Henan was 9.8 yuan/kg [27][31][33]. 3.3 Industry Chain - Supply side: In the 27th week, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,520 tons, a decrease of 168 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.57%, and a year - on - year increase of 71.08%. The crop growth is good, and the jujube yield in the 2024/25 production season is expected to recover [38][42]. - Demand side: In May 2025, China's jujube export volume was 2,229,227 kg, a year - on - year decrease of 5.61%. From January to May, the cumulative export volume was 15,350,567 kg, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.99%. The trading of BOCE Xinjiang Jujube Good Brand was inactive this week, and the order volume was not transacted [46][50]. 3.4 Options Market and Futures - Stock Correlation - Options market: The implied volatility of at - the - money jujube options this week is presented in the report, but specific data is not mentioned [52]. - Stock market: The report shows the price - to - earnings ratio of Hao Xiang Ni, but specific data is not mentioned [54].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of polypropylene futures fluctuated in the range of 7,025 - 7,120 yuan/ton. As of July 2, 2025, the PP2509 contract closed at 7,078 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from last week's close [6]. - On the supply side, affected by the shutdown of plants such as Yanchang Zhongmei, this week's production decreased by 1.96% month - on - month to 773,700 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.86% month - on - month to 77.44%. On the demand side, the average operating rate of PP downstream industries decreased by 0.27% month - on - month to 48.78%. In terms of inventory, the commercial inventory of PP decreased by 0.09% month - on - month to 785,100 tons, which is at a neutral level in the same period of the past three years [6]. - In July, the overhaul capacity of PP plants remains high, but considering the large production scale from June to July, the overall supply pressure in the industry is expected to be relatively high. Next week, affected by the shutdown of plants such as Yanchang Zhongmei and Tianjin Bohua, the production and capacity utilization rate are expected to decline slightly. The off - season atmosphere in the downstream is strong, and the number of product order days mainly decreases. The operating rate of PP downstream industries may continue to decline slightly. Overseas demand has limited improvement. In terms of cost, the overall supply and demand of global crude oil is weak, and short - term geopolitical intensification is limited, so international oil prices are under pressure. In the short term, PP2509 is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the support around 7,030 and the pressure around 7,140 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Price**: The main contract of polypropylene futures fluctuated in the range of 7,025 - 7,120 yuan/ton, and the PP2509 contract closed at 7,078 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from last week [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased, demand weakened, and inventory showed different trends. Cost and profit also changed, with oil - based and PDH - based profits improving, while coal - based profits shrinking [6]. - **Outlook**: In July, supply pressure is high, downstream demand is weak, and cost is under pressure. PP2509 is expected to fluctuate [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The main contract fluctuated, and trading volume decreased [8]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: The main position changed little, and the number of registered warehouse receipts decreased slightly [13]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 monthly spreads weakened slightly, while the 5 - 9 monthly spread strengthened. The L - PP spread strengthened slightly [20][25]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Spot Price**: The domestic PP price in East China was around 7,170 yuan/ton [30]. - **Basis**: The basis shrank, and the futures market was at a discount [34]. 3.4 Upstream Market - **Energy Prices**: Crude oil prices fluctuated strongly, and coal prices rose slightly [38]. - **Propane Price**: The CIF price of propane was 545 US dollars/ton, and the spot price in Shandong was 6,610 yuan/ton [44]. - **Methanol Price**: The price of methanol in Jiangsu decreased to 2,470 yuan/ton [50]. 3.5 Industrial Chain - **Supply**: The operating rate of PP plants of petrochemical enterprises decreased, and the total inventory decreased [53][56]. - **Cost and Profit**: Oil - based costs decreased, coal - based costs increased slightly, and PDH - based costs decreased. Oil - based and PDH - based profits improved, while coal - based profits shrank [60][65][68]. - **Import and Export**: PP import was at a loss, and the import window was closed [77]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate decreased. In May, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of plastic product output was 5.4%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of export value was - 2.0% [81][86]. 3.6 Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the main PP contract was 13.24%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 10.32% [92].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.7.4」 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 取 更 多 资 讯 关 注 我 们 获 业务咨询 添加客服 「摘要」 • 周度观点：A股主要指数本周普遍上涨，除科创50外均录得上涨。四期指表现分化，大盘蓝 筹股强于中小盘股。本周一，国内6月PMI公布，三大PMI指数均较上月回升，市场情绪受到 推动；周二至周四市场震荡整理；周五午间，商务部发言人表示中美双方将各自解除经贸限 制，带动A股午后拉升。本周，市场成交活跃度较上周小幅回落。 2 来源：瑞达期货研究院 股指期货周报 作者：廖宏斌 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息面概览 3、周度市场数据 4、行情展望与策略 1、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 「行情回顾」 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅% | 周五涨跌幅% | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF2509 | 1.53 | 0.46 | 3936.0 | | | IH2509 | 1.39 | 0.62 | 2717.2 | | | IC2509 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - The alumina market is expected to have relatively sufficient supply and stable demand, with cost providing support for the spot price [6] - The Shanghai aluminum market may face relatively stable supply, seasonal decline in demand, and increasing inventory, but industry expectations remain positive due to the macro - environment [6] - The casting aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with seasonal inventory accumulation, and long - term expectations and cost support may provide some support for the price [8] Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai aluminum showed a slightly upward trend with a weekly increase of 0.27%, closing at 20,635 yuan/ton; alumina rebounded from a low level, with a weekly increase of 1.27%, at 3,024 yuan/ton; cast aluminum rose 0.48% to 19,885 yuan/ton [6][8] - **Market Outlook**: Alumina has sufficient raw material supply, stable demand, and cost - supported prices; Shanghai aluminum has stable supply, seasonal demand decline, and increasing inventory but positive industry expectations; casting aluminum alloy has weak supply and demand, seasonal inventory accumulation, and long - term positive expectations [6][8] - **Strategy Suggestions**: Lightly short - sell the main Shanghai aluminum contract on rallies, lightly go long on the main alumina contract on dips, and trade the main cast aluminum contract with a light position in a range - bound manner, while controlling risks [6][8] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: As of July 4, 2025, Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,815 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from June 27; LME aluminum closed at $2,605.5/ton on July 3, up 0.79% from June 27; alumina futures rose 2.76% to 3,160 yuan/ton; cast aluminum alloy futures rose 0.48% to 19,885 yuan/ton [11][14] - **Position and Spread**: Shanghai aluminum's open interest increased by 3.02% to 691,036 lots; the net position of the top 20 increased by 10,219 lots; the aluminum - zinc spread decreased by 55 yuan/ton to 1,775 yuan/ton; the copper - aluminum spread decreased by 245 yuan/ton to 59,095 yuan/ton [17][22] - **Spot Prices**: Alumina spot prices in Henan rose 0.32% to 3,100 yuan/ton, while those in Shanxi and Guizhou were flat; the national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was flat at 20,100 yuan/ton; Shanghai aluminum spot prices fell 0.91% to 20,750 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened [25][29] 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: LME aluminum inventory increased by 5.96% to 356,975 tons; SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 11.91% to 38,485 tons; social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 424,000 tons, unchanged from June 26 [31][34] - **Raw Materials**: Aluminum ore imports increased, and the nine - port inventory rose by 19 tons to 2,449 tons; waste aluminum prices slightly decreased, and both imports and exports increased [37][44] - **Production and Sales**: In May 2025, alumina production was 748.8 tons, up 5% year - on - year; electrolytic aluminum production was 382.8 tons, up 5% year - on - year; aluminum products production was 576.2 tons, up 0.4% year - on - year; cast aluminum alloy production was 61.6 tons; aluminum alloy production was 164.5 tons, up 16.7% year - on - year [37][54][64] - **Market Demand**: The real estate market slightly declined, with the housing market sentiment index falling; infrastructure investment was positive, and automobile production and sales increased year - on - year [67][70] 4. Options Market Analysis - Given the expected slight decline in aluminum prices in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [75]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.04」 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 库存处于低位，价格震荡略偏强 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z0018457 关 注 微信服 务 号 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况及期权 4、期股关联 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周苹果期货2510价格震荡，周度上涨0.55% 苹果市场周报 行情展望：新季苹果方面，产区套袋工作结束，产量问题逐渐明朗，根据市场对 陕西苹果主产区坐果和套袋情况调研来看，陕西今年坐果套袋情况较去年同期减 产幅度预计在5%-10%。根据Mysteel数据，截至2025年7月2日，全国主产区苹果 冷库库存量为99.31万吨，环比上周减少7.60万吨，淡季走货速度不快，环比上周 放缓，同比有所减慢。山东产区库容比为13.98%，较上周减少0.78%，去库速度 同比减慢。山东产区目前客商数量不多，客商仍青睐性价比高的货源，整体走货 不快。陕西产区库容比为6.43%，较上周减少0.68%，走货较上周表现略慢。陕西 产区交易仍集中于陕北地区，其余产区清库。当前库存处于五年同期低位，对价 格具有较强支撑，只是夏季消暑水果大 ...