棉花(纱)产业日报 2026-02-04 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 14680 | 30 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20595 | 180 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -117884 | 8739 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -1374 | 115 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 716331 | -1549 主力合约持仓量:棉纱(日,手) | 8752 | 42 ...

口逐步开启，进口压力增大。需求端，AI领域发展前景强势，将带动焊锡需求明显增长。近期锡价回落，下 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 游采购氛围回暖，库存仓单下降明显，现货升水回升至1150元/吨；LME库存持稳，现货升水走低。技术面 ，持仓增加价格回升，市场情绪修复。观点参考：预计沪锡短期宽幅调整，关注38-42区间。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 392 ...

研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) | 8905 | -15 主力合约持仓量:红枣(日,手) | 119675 | -789 33 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:红枣(日,手) | -19204 | -3 仓单数量:红枣(日,张) | 3350 | | | | 有效仓单预报:红枣:小计(日,张) | 479 | -40 | ...

苹果产业日报 2026-02-04 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) 109 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) | 9594 | | | 106839 | 5478 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果(日,手) 3217 甘肃静宁苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, 山东沂源苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, | 4126 | | | | | | 现货市场 | 元/斤) 陕西洛川苹果现货价格(纸袋70#以上半 山东烟台栖霞现货价格(纸袋80#以上一 | 5.25 | 0 元/斤) | | 2.4 | 0 | | | | 4.2 | 0 | | 3.7 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 商品)(日,元/斤) 全国:苹果产量(年,万吨) 168.34 二级果农货)(日,元/斤) 水果批发价:苹果(周,元/公斤) 0.08 平均批发价:富士苹果(周,元/公斤) | 5128.51 9.55 | | | 9.33 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The SHFE copper main contract fluctuates with a bullish bias, the open interest increases, the spot is at a discount, and the basis strengthens. The raw material cost support logic remains strong due to the tight supply of copper concentrate and geopolitical impacts. The domestic copper production may slightly decline due to raw material supply constraints and the approaching holiday. The downstream may have some demand for bargain hunting after the significant decline in copper prices, but the actual trading remains cautious due to the off - season and the upstream's reluctance to sell. Domestic copper inventories show seasonal accumulation. The option market sentiment is bullish with a slightly lower implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has both lines above the 0 - axis with a slightly shrinking red bar. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades with a light position and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE copper futures main contract is 105,160 yuan/ton, up 660 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 13,457 dollars/ton, down 21 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 290 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the open interest of the SHFE copper main contract is 192,908 lots, up 1021 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of SHFE copper is - 51,182 lots, up 3611 lots. The LME copper inventory is 176,125 tons, up 1450 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 233,004 tons, up 7067 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 37,075 tons, down 800 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warehouse receipts are 159,772 tons, down 2856 tons [2] Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 104,405 yuan/ton, up 3085 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 104,895 yuan/ton, up 3660 yuan. The CIF (Bill of Lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 43 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 35 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is - 755 yuan/ton, up 2425 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 69.40 dollars/ton, down 10.23 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons, up 17.80 million tons. The copper smelter's TC is - 49.84 dollars/kiloton, down 0.05 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 91,590 yuan/metal ton, up 230 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 92,290 yuan/metal ton, up 230 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 2,200 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 132.60 million tons, up 9.00 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 68,190 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 82,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.91 million tons, up 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 639.502 billion yuan, up 79.113 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 8278.814 billion yuan, up 419.724 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345,500 pieces, up 415,345,500 pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of SHFE copper is 43.27%, down 0.47%; the 40 - day historical volatility of SHFE copper is 35.35%, up 0.01%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money option is 35.56%, down 0.0089; the call - to - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.48, up 0.0512 [2] Industry News - Thirty provinces in China have determined their GDP growth targets for 2026, with many major economic provinces setting the target above 5%. Shanghai aims for about 5% GDP growth in 2026 and will accelerate major industrial projects in areas such as integrated circuits and artificial intelligence. In January, the sales volume of 6 types of household appliances and 4 types of digital and smart products exceeded 15 million units, with sales of nearly 59 billion yuan. The offline sales of home appliance trade - ins and new digital and smart product purchases accounted for nearly 80%, with a year - on - year increase of about 20%. Fed's Barkin said that rate - cut measures support the job market and the inflation - fighting task still has the last step. Fed's Mille said that rates need to be cut by slightly more than one percentage point this year. The central government issued the No. 1 central document, aiming to expand rural consumption, support the development of new consumption formats in rural areas, and promote the construction and renewal of rural circulation infrastructure [2]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 23,955.00 -155.00 | +145.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) +10.00↑ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 2,824.00 -195.00 | +15.00↑ -8.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 224,756.00 | -1885.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 375,698.00 | -1256.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 54,525.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 265,223.00 | +42736.00↑ | | 期货市场 | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） | 3,099.00 | +42.50↑ LME铝库存（日，吨） | 495,175.00 | -2000.00↓ | | | 沪铝前20名净持仓（日 ...

口商获得了多达10船加拿大油菜籽船货，预计将在2月至4月间装运，每船约为6.5万吨。当下市场预期仍维持菜系进口或将恢复。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9243 | 28 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2247 | -2 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(5-9):(日,元/吨) | 65 | -15 菜粕月间价差(5-9)(日,元/吨) | -45 | -7 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 285243 | -120 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 926083 | 3682 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | -13908 | 643 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -246685 | -17508 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 625 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 0 | 0 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽( ...

不锈钢产业日报 2026-02-04 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 技术面，持仓增量价格调整，多空交投谨慎。观点参考：预计不锈钢期价震荡调整，关注1.35-1.4区间。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 13825 | 240 03-04月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -105 | -5 -8105 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢( ...

PVC产业日报 2026-02-04 响下，市场对于后市供应压力缓解的预期较为乐观，给到盘面一定支撑。PVC市场弱现实与强预期相博弈， 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 短期盘面预计宽幅震荡。V2605日度区间预计在5000-5200附近。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 5155 | 84 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 2182106 | -24041 | | | 持仓量:聚氯 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1787 | 17 郑州尿素5-9价差(日,元/吨) | 36 | 2 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 228271 | -3727 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -17282 | -2442 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 10969 | -212 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1790 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1770 | 0 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1790 | -10 山东(日,元/吨) | 1770 | 0 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1790 | 0 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -17 | -17 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 394 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 422.5 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) | 14.4 | 1 企业库存( ...