碳酸锂产业日报 2025/10/27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 81,900.00 | +2380.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -188,469.00 | -4674.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 483,478.00 | +52304.00↑ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -380.00 | -200.00↓ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 27,739.00 | -960.00↓ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 76,550.00 | +1150.00↑ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 74,300.00 | +1150.00↑ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | -5,350.00 | -1230.00↓ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价（日，美元/吨） | 941.00 | +44. ...

观点总结 重点关注 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：IF:沪深300 IH:上证50 IC:中证500 IM：中证1000 IO:沪深300期权 A股主要指数收盘普遍上涨。三大指数高开后震荡上行，上证指数逼近4000点整数关口。截止收盘，上证指数指涨 1.18%，深证成指涨1.51%，创业板指涨1.98%。沪深两市成交额重回两万亿。全市场超3300只个股上涨。行业板块 普遍上涨，通信、电子等板块大幅走强。海外方面，中美双方于10月25日至26日在马来西亚举行经贸磋商。双方就解 决多项共同关心的重要经贸问题的安排达成基本共识。美财长贝森特周日在接受CBS采访时表示，在进行了"两天非常 好的会谈"后，对中国征收额外 100% 关税"实际上已不予考虑"。贸易关系缓和提振风险资产价格。国内方面，经 济基本面，1-9月份，国内规上工业企业利润增速明显加快，其中高技术制造业及装备制造业带动明显，此前公布的数 据同样显示，高技术制造业带动9月份国内规上工业增加值超预期上行，新质生产力对经济起到支撑。政策端，二十届 四中全会公报指出将加快高水平科技自立自强，引领发展新质生产力，"十五五"期间推动 ...

Report Overview - The report is an industrial daily for the aluminum industry dated October 27, 2025, covering various aspects of the aluminum market including futures, spot, upstream, downstream, and industry news [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The aluminum market shows different trends in different segments. Alumina may see supply reduction and slight demand increase, supporting its price; electrolytic aluminum may experience a small increase in supply and strong consumption with inventory reduction; cast aluminum may be in a tight supply - demand balance with inventory reduction [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21,360 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 75 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the main contract holding volume was 311,269 lots, up 9,063 lots; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote was 2,856.5 dollars/ton, down 8.5 dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 473,125 tons, down 4,550 tons [2] - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,829 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 40 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the main contract holding volume was 372,484 lots, down 5,950 lots [2] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20,715 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 140 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the main contract holding volume was 6,366 lots [2] Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum price was 21,160 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price was 21,130 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount was - 60 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was 3.19 dollars/ton, down 5.02 dollars [2] - **Alumina Spot**: The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,795 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the alumina basis was - 34 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The national alumina开工率 was 85.98%, up 3.05 percentage points; the production was 799.9 million tons, up 7.42 million tons; the demand from the electrolytic aluminum part was 704.31 million tons, down 21.49 million tons; the supply - demand balance was 46.85 million tons, up 18.12 million tons [2] - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan was 16,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shandong it was 16,300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; China's import of aluminum scrap was 155,414.4 tons, down 17,195.97 tons; exports were 68.54 tons, up 15.31 tons [2] Industry Situation - **Aluminum Production**: The electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 56.8 million tons, up 31,034.96 million tons; the total production capacity was 4,523.2 million tons, unchanged; the production of aluminum products was 590 million tons, up 35.18 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 65.65 million tons, up 2.06 million tons [2] - **Aluminum Trade**: The import of primary aluminum was 246,797.1 tons, up 31,034.96 tons; exports were 28,969.92 tons, up 3,365.58 tons; exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 52 million tons, down 1 million tons; exports of aluminum alloy were 2.35 million tons, down 0.56 million tons [2] Downstream and Application - **Automobile Production**: The monthly automobile production was 322.65 million vehicles, up 47.42 million vehicles [2] - **Real Estate**: The national real estate climate index was 92.78, down 0.27 [2] Option Situation - **Aluminum Options**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 8.59%, up 0.20 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 7.77%, up 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money was 11.97%, up 0.0053 percentage points; the call - put ratio was 1.21, down 0.0391 [2] Industry News - **Sino - US Economic and Trade Consultation**: Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held consultations in Kuala Lumpur, reaching a basic consensus on issues such as maritime logistics, tariffs, and trade [2] - **Financial Report**: The central bank governor reported on financial work, including implementing a moderately loose monetary policy and strengthening financial supervision [2] - **US CPI Data**: The US September CPI rose 3% year - on - year, lower than expected, and the market fully priced in two 25 - basis - point Fed rate cuts [2] - **15th Five - Year Plan**: The "15th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes "agriculture, rural areas, and farmers" issues, and is expected to bring new market space and investment demand [2] Alumina View Summary - **Market Trend**: The alumina main contract showed a volatile trend, with a decrease in holding volume, spot discount, and weakening basis [2] - **Fundamentals**: Supply may decrease due to squeezed smelter profits; demand may be slightly boosted by high - level electrolytic aluminum production and positive macro expectations; prices may be supported [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The 60 - minute MACD showed double lines above the 0 axis with slightly expanding red bars [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Light - position short - term long trading at low prices, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Electrolytic Aluminum View Summary - **Market Trend**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract opened low and strengthened, with an increase in holding volume, spot discount, and weakening basis [2] - **Fundamentals**: Supply may increase slightly due to increased smelting profits; demand may be strong due to the "15th Five - Year Plan" and traditional peak season; inventory is decreasing; the option market is bullish [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The 60 - minute MACD showed double lines above the 0 axis with slightly expanding red bars [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Light - position short - term long trading at low prices, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Cast Aluminum Alloy View Summary - **Market Trend**: The cast aluminum main contract was slightly stronger in a volatile market, with a decrease in holding volume, spot premium, and weakening basis [2] - **Fundamentals**: Supply may be limited by tight raw material supply; demand is resilient due to positive macro expectations and the peak season; inventory is decreasing slightly [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The 60 - minute MACD showed double lines above the 0 axis with slightly converging green bars [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Light - position oscillatory trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market shows a situation of both supply and demand being weak, with industrial inventory accumulating. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. It is recommended to conduct light - position trading with a slightly bullish trend, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 88,370 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 11,036 dollars/ton, up 73.5 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 10 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 293,381 lots, up 17,709 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 23,535 lots, up 1,433 lots. The LME copper inventory is 136,350 tons, down 575 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 104,792 tons, down 5,448 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrant is 35,392 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 88,215 yuan/ton, up 1,795 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 88,275 yuan/ton, up 1,835 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 52 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 34.5 dollars/ton, down 4.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 155 yuan/ton, up 1,145 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is - 25.97 dollars/ton, down 14.42 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 258.69 million tons, down 17.2 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 42.7 dollars/kiloton, down 1.73 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 78,540 yuan/metal ton, up 1,830 yuan; the price in Yunnan is 79,240 yuan/metal ton, up 1,830 yuan. The south processing fee of blister copper is 900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the north processing fee is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper is 126.6 million tons, down 3.5 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 490,000 tons, up 60,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of scrap copper (1 bright copper wire) in Shanghai is 59,240 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan; the price of scrap copper (2 copper, 94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 72,850 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan. The ex - factory price of sulfuric acid (98%) of Jiangxi Copper is 650 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 223.2 million tons, up 1 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 4,378 billion yuan, up 582.24 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 67,705.71 billion yuan, up 7,396.52 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,371,236,100 pieces, up 120,949,000 pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 22.59%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 17.46%, up 0.04%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money option is 21.18%, up 0.0387%. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 1.18, down 0.0923 [2] 3.7 Industry News - China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, reaching a basic consensus on important economic and trade issues. The 18th meeting of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee heard a report on financial work, proposing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The US CPI in September increased by 3% year - on - year, lower than expected. The "15th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes solving "three rural" issues and is expected to bring new market space [2]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.24」 集运指数（欧线）期货周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号： Z0020723 联系电话：0595-86778969 业务咨询 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 一、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 行情回顾 本周集运指数（欧线）期货价格集体上涨，主力合约EC2512收涨10.42%，远月合约收涨4-10%不等。最新SCFIS欧 线结算运价指数为1031.80，较上周回升108.58点，环比上行10.5%，现货指标转降为升，提振期价运行。主流船司相 继发布11月涨价函，且马士基10月中下旬挺价基本成功，提高了市场对于11月涨价成功的信心。鹿特丹港集装箱装卸 业务全面停滞，超60艘船舶在海上停泊等待，区域供应链不确定性加剧；近期，特朗普改口承认对华高额关税"不可 持续"，从145%峰值转向希望通过协商达成"公平协议"，10月17日，特朗普在福克斯商业频道采访中坦言，对中国 商品征收的高额关税不会长期存在，并透露将在两周后在韩国与中国最高领导人会面，持续释放的缓和信号 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.24」 贵金属市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 取 更 多 资 讯 关 注 我 们 获 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 ◆ 行情回顾：多头获利了结情绪持续释放，关税局势趋于降温，贵金属市场大幅回调后步入震荡格局。美国财政部 最新数据显示，联邦政府债务总额首次突破38万亿美元。与此同时，联邦政府停摆已持续22天，成为历史上持续 时间第二长的停摆事件，仍提供潜在避险支撑。关税压力趋于平缓，特朗普强调后续谈判意愿，中美双方高级领 导人将于马来西亚展开关税谈判，本轮关税局势实质性升温可能性有限。FOMC方面，大多数美联储票委支持重启 宽松路径，就业市场走弱风险为主要考量因素，主席鲍威尔此前表示未来数月可能停止缩表，整体延续鸽派立场， 10月FOMC会议降息25基点基本已成定局，市场当前更关注于就业市场的实际表现，以及未来降息的幅度。日元维 持低位震荡，因市场预期其新政府可能推进财政宽松政策，阶段性提振美元走势，对金价上行构成潜在压力。地 缘方面，美俄会晤 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.24」 股指期货周报 作者：廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息面概览 3、周度市场数据 4、行情展望与策略 「摘要」 • 周度观点：A股主要指数本周集体大幅上涨，科创50及创业板指涨超5%。四期指亦集体上行， 中小盘股强于大盘蓝筹股。本周一，国内三季度经济数据公布，高技术制造业继续支撑经济， 但投资与消费均回落；周二至周四，市场受到海外关税消息反复变化扰动，呈震荡态势；周 五，随着四中全会闭幕，公报内容提振市场情绪，A股大幅走高。本周，市场成交活跃度较 上周进一步回落。 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 「行情回顾」 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅% | 周五涨跌幅% | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF2512 | 3.34 | 1.49 | 4634.8 | | | IH2512 | 2.89 | 1.04 | ...

「2025.10.24」 瑞达期货研究院 苹果市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信服 务 号 添加客服 业务咨询 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周苹果期货2601合约价格上涨，周度涨幅2.61%。 行情展望：西部新季晚熟富士上货量增加，价格出现两极分化较为明显，由于客 商对好货收购积极性较高，一般货源订货积极性一般，导致产地优质货源价格偏 强运行。山东产区受天气影响，目前仍处于上色为主，客商多流转至西部地区收 购。销区市场，苹果批发交易氛围仍显一般，二三级批发商补货力度不强，高货 货源走货不快。另外今年产地多新季晚熟富士上市量增加，下树进度及入库量较 去年同期均有所推迟。西部晚富士交易陆续进入中后期，客商对好货收购积极， 一般货源收购相对谨慎。山东产区新果上货量仍有限，小单车要货增加，客商收 购好货难以足量，入库工作相对零星。销区市场，交易氛围仍显清淡，走货仍不 快，需求端相对承压。不过当前新果好货难寻及优果优价的情况下，预计短期苹 果期价仍维持震荡偏强运行。 2 策略建议：操作上，建议苹果2601合约短期逢回调买入多单思路为主。 未来 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.24」 白糖市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信客 服 号 添加客服 业务咨询 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周郑糖2601合约价格小幅上涨，周度涨幅约0.63%。 行情展望：新榨季全球食糖过剩预估值多数上调，泰国和印度糖产量恢复，对供应 端起到关键影响，其中印度将于2025/26榨季恢复食糖出口，市场初步预期为200 万吨。国内市场，2025/26榨季蒙古、新疆合计有26家糖厂全部开榨 ，总产量预期 140万吨左右，短期北方甜菜糖供应将逐渐增加。另外海关总署公布的数据显示， 2025年9月份，我国食糖进口量为55万吨，环比减少约28万吨，同比增加35.8%； 2025年1-9月份，我国累计进口食糖316万吨，同比增加27万吨或9.4%。三季度进 口糖进度明显提速。根据农业农村部市场预警专家委员会预估，本年度我国进口总 量将超500万吨，加之进口糖配额外窗口打开，后期进口量压力仍明显。下游需求 处于季节性回落中，预计后期成品糖及饮料用货减少。不过盘面价格受成本支撑逐 渐显现，预计价格震荡为主。 交易策略 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, industrial silicon prices rose by 1.66%, while polysilicon prices fell by 3.71%. The industrial silicon futures market showed an upward trend due to increased expectations of production cuts during the dry season, while polysilicon prices declined as the market sentiment subsided [4]. - Looking ahead, in the industrial silicon market, supply will see a combination of production cuts in the southwest and increased production in the northwest next week. Demand from polysilicon is highly uncertain, while that from organosilicon and aluminum alloy remains relatively stable. Cost provides support for prices, but high inventory restricts upward price movement. In the polysilicon market, supply will face rising production costs as the dry season approaches in the southwest, and demand remains weak overall, although emerging markets offer some buffer. Policy rumors have boosted market confidence, but the details and implementation time are unclear [4]. - It is recommended that the main contract of industrial silicon oscillates within the range of 8400 - 8600 yuan, with a stop - loss range of 8200 - 8800 yuan. The main contract of polysilicon will oscillate in the short term, within the range of 48000 - 53000 yuan, with a stop - loss range of 46000 - 55000 yuan [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon prices increased by 1.66% this week, and polysilicon prices decreased by 3.71%. The industrial silicon futures market trended upward due to dry - season production cut expectations, while polysilicon prices declined as market sentiment faded [4]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply will see production cuts in Sichuan and Yunnan during the dry - season transition, while Xinjiang will increase production. Demand from organosilicon has some support, but polysilicon demand may weaken, and aluminum alloy demand is stable but has limited price - pulling power [4]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply will face rising costs in the southwest during the dry season, and demand is weak in the photovoltaic industry. Although emerging markets offer some support, European high inventory and uncertain policies add to market uncertainty [4]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract of industrial silicon should be traded within the range of 8400 - 8600 yuan, with a stop - loss range of 8200 - 8800 yuan. The main contract of polysilicon should be traded within the range of 48000 - 53000 yuan, with a stop - loss range of 46000 - 55000 yuan [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price increased this week, while the spot price remained flat, and the basis decreased. As of October 23, 2025, the spot price was 9350 yuan/ton, and the basis was 645 yuan/ton [10][12]. - **Polysilicon**: Both the futures and spot prices increased this week, and the basis strengthened. As of October 23, 2025, the spot price was 52.98 yuan/kg, up 230 yuan/kg from last week, and the basis was 2220 yuan/g [14][16]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Industrial Silicon**: - **Raw Materials and Costs**: Raw material prices remained stable this week. Electricity prices are expected to rise near the dry season, increasing costs, but electricity prices in the northwest are stable [21][24]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased. As of October 23, 2025, the number of warehouse receipts was 48371 lots, a decrease of 1986 lots from the previous period [26][28]. - **Downstream Industries**: - **Organosilicon**: Production and operating rates increased this week. As of October 23, 2025, the weekly production was 4.6 tons, an increase of 0.88%, and the operating rate was 70.05%, an increase of 0.55%. Costs stabilized, spot prices and profits increased, and future production is expected to remain flat [30][35][39]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Spot prices and inventory increased. As of October 23, 2025, the price was 21000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week, and the inventory was 7.53 tons, up 0.09 tons from last week. Demand for industrial silicon is expected to stabilize [41][47]. - **Polysilicon**: - **Downstream Products**: Silicon wafer prices remained flat, and battery cell prices weakened. As of October 23, 2025, the silicon wafer price was 1.48 yuan/piece, unchanged from last week, and the battery cell price was 0.30 yuan/watt, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/watt from last week. This is expected to have a negative impact on polysilicon demand [49][51]. - **Cost, Profit, and Inventory**: Affected by industrial silicon, polysilicon costs decreased, profits increased, and inventory increased. As of October 23, 2025, the profit was 11080 yuan/ton, the average cost was 40672 yuan/ton, and the inventory was 27.84 tons [56][61].