1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a stage of increasing supply and demand with inventory reduction. The price of lithium carbonate may be supported. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and control risks [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The weekly line of the lithium carbonate main contract fluctuated strongly, with a change rate of +5.05% and an amplitude of 7.32%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 79,520 yuan/ton [7]. - **Macro Aspect**: The communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee was released, setting the main goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Overseas miners continue to support prices. The current demand of lithium salt plants is good, and the ore price rises with the lithium price. The smelters maintain a high production schedule, and the domestic lithium carbonate supply shows a stable growth trend. The downstream material factories have good production and order situations. The power battery benefits from the peak consumption season of the new energy vehicle industry, and the energy storage market also maintains a high growth rate. The domestic demand for lithium carbonate is strong, and the industrial inventory is gradually reduced [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and control trading rhythm to manage risks [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of October 24, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 79,520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,820 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 600 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 120 yuan/ton [14]. - **Spot Price**: As of October 24, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 75,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,050 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 4,120 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,770 yuan/ton [20]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Spodumene**: As of October 24, 2025, the average price of spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 897 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45 US dollars/ton. The spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1221, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04% [24]. - **Lepidolite**: As of the latest data, the average price of lepidolite (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,835 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 112 yuan/ton. The average price of lithiophilite was 8,250 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 700 yuan/ton [31]. 3.4 Industry Supply - **Imports and Exports**: As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 19,596.9 tons, a decrease of 2,250.01 tons from August, a decline of 10.3%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.49%. The monthly export volume was 150.816 tons, a decrease of 218.09 tons from August, a decline of 59.12%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.07% [34]. - **Production**: As of September 2025, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 47,140 tons, an increase of 1,260 tons from August, an increase of 2.75%, and a year - on - year increase of 47.59%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [34]. 3.5 Downstream Demand - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: As of October 24, 2025, the average price was 95,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16,000 yuan/ton. As of September 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 211,050 tons, an increase of 18,950 tons from August, an increase of 9.86%, and a year - on - year increase of 45.25% [38]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of the latest data, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 33,400 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. As of September 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 246,300 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons from August, an increase of 2.63%, and a year - on - year increase of 35.93%. The monthly operating rate was 59%, a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - year decrease of 1% [41]. - **Ternary Materials**: As of September 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 63,140 tons, a decrease of 2,720 tons from August, a decline of 4.13%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.56%. The monthly operating rate was 53%, a month - on - month decrease of 2% and a year - on - year decrease of 4%. As of the latest data, the prices of ternary materials 811 type, 622 type, and 523 type continued to strengthen [46]. - **Lithium Manganate**: As of September 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 9,920 tons, a decrease of 410 tons from August, a decline of 3.97%, and a year - on - year decrease of 5.52%. As of the latest data, the average price of lithium manganate was 32,000 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [51]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of the latest data, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 343,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 yuan/ton. As of September 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 15,080 tons, an increase of 100 tons from August, an increase of 0.67%, and a year - on - year increase of 103.23% [54]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: As of September 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 46.09%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55% and a year - on - year increase of 7.52%. The monthly production was 1,617,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 16.25%, and the monthly sales were 1,604,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 14.98%. The cumulative export volume was 1.758 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 89.44% [56][61]. 3.6 Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying is 0.23, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and the fundamental situation, it is recommended to go long on volatility by constructing a long straddle option [66].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.24」 铝类市场周报 预期向好库存去化，铝类或将有所支撑 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 电解铝：基本面供给端，氧化铝现货价格持续走弱，叠加国内宏观预期释放提振铝价，令电解铝冶炼利润增厚，生产 积极性提升。但由于在运行产能临近行业上限，故国内电解铝供给量增量有限仅小幅度。需求端，"十五五"规划改 善国内消费预期，叠加传统旺季带来的下游开工率转暖，令电解铝消费走强，铝锭库存去化，但需谨慎观测过高铝价 对下游需求的抑制作用。整体来看，沪铝基本面或处于供给小增、消费走强的阶段，产业库存去化、预期向好。 策略建议：沪铝主力合约轻仓逢低短多交易，注意操作节奏及风险控制。 3 行情回顾：沪铝震荡偏强，周涨跌幅+1.51%，报21225元/吨。氧化铝低位震荡，周涨跌+0.36%，报2810元/吨。 行情展望： 氧化铝：基本面原料端，铝土矿港口库存小幅回落，土矿供给受海外季节变化影 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market may oscillate due to the current weak supply - demand situation and positive future expectations [6] - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a state of temporary supply - demand weakness, with industrial inventory accumulating, but domestic macro - control may gradually repair consumption expectations [6] - It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades and control trading rhythm and risks [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Summary - The Shanghai copper main contract showed a slightly stronger weekly oscillation, with a weekly increase of 3.95% and an amplitude of 4.09%. The closing price of the main contract this week was 87,720 yuan/ton [6] - Internationally, the US federal government "shutdown" may lead to the suspension of the food - stamp program in November, affecting 42 million low - income people. Domestically, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period [6] - Fundamentally, copper concentrate supply is continuously tight, TC fees are in the negative range, and the ore price is firm. Domestic smelting capacity has decreased due to many maintenance operations and tight raw - material supply, and refined - copper supply has slightly tightened. High copper prices have suppressed downstream demand, and currently, downstream buyers mainly make purchases based on rigid demand and are highly watchful [6] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Contracts**: As of October 24, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 1,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,685 yuan/ton. The main - contract price was 87,720 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,330 yuan/ton, and the position volume was 275,672 lots, a week - on - week increase of 60,099 lots [12] - **Spot Prices**: As of October 24, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 86,420 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 690 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of the Shanghai copper main contract was 20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton [15] - **Premiums and Positions**: As of the latest data this week, the average CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 52 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 US dollars/ton. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 24,968 lots, a decrease of 14,125 lots from last week [24] 3. Option Market - As of October 24, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main - contract at - the - money option fell to around the 75th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week's data, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option positions was 0.7873, a week - on - week increase of 0.0388 [29] 4. Upstream Situation - **Mining Quotes and Processing Fees**: The quotes of upstream copper mines have strengthened, and the processing fees of blister copper have weakened. As of the latest data this week, the quote of copper concentrate in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 76,710 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 520 yuan/ton. The processing fee of southern blister copper this week was 900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton [30] - **Imports and Price Differences**: As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5869 million tons, a decrease of 172,000 tons from August, a decline of 6.23% and a year - on - year increase of 6.24%. As of the latest data this week, the price difference between refined and scrap copper (tax - included) was 3,425.14 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 483.43 yuan/ton [36] - **Global Production and Inventories**: As of August 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1.937 million tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from July, a decline of 0.26%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 77.5%, a decrease of 0.4% from July. As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 468,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41,000 tons [41] 5. Industry Situation - **Refined - Copper Production**: As of September 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.266 million tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons from August, a decline of 2.69% and a year - on - year increase of 11.25%. As of August 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2.451 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from July, a decline of 0.33%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 81%, a decrease of 0.5% from July [44] - **Refined - Copper Imports**: As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 374,075.583 tons, an increase of 66,847.36 tons from August, an increase of 21.76% and a year - on - year increase of 7.44%. As of the latest data this week, the import profit and loss amount was - 1,608.72 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,053.96 yuan/ton [50][51] - **Social Inventories**: As of the latest data this week, the total LME inventory decreased by 300 tons from last week, the total COMEX inventory increased by 1,917 tons from last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 7,778 tons from last week. The total social inventory was 189,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,700 tons [54] 6. Downstream and Application - **Copper Products**: As of September 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.232 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from August, an increase of 0.45%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 490,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons from August, an increase of 13.95% and a year - on - year increase of 2.08% [60] - **Applications**: As of August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 0.54% and 13.99% respectively. As of September 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of the monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs were 5.6%, - 3%, - 2%, - 6.7%, and 3.9% respectively [64] - **Real Estate and Integrated Circuits**: As of September 2025, the cumulative completed investment in real - estate development was 6.770571 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% and a month - on - month increase of 12.26%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 381.88702 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 8.6% and a month - on - month increase of 11.37% [71] 7. Overall Situation - According to ICSG statistics, as of August 2025, the global supply - demand balance of refined copper showed an oversupply, with a monthly value of 47,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of August 2025, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 256,500 tons [76][77]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The U.S. government shutdown has led to the non - release of the crop progress report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, causing cautious market trading. As the U.S. corn harvest progresses, supply pressure will gradually increase, putting downward pressure on U.S. corn prices. However, the estimated lower corn yield in the U.S. this year than the previous USDA forecast provides some support for prices [3]. - In the domestic Northeast region, the accelerated harvest of new - season corn, the purchase of new grain by multiple Sinograin direct - affiliated warehouses, and the improvement of corn storage conditions have led to a slowdown in the shipment of some growers. Although deep - processing enterprises have raised quotes, the pressure of concentrated supply of new - season corn still exists, and prices fluctuate slightly. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the remaining grain in the market is scarce, and the market supply is increasing rapidly, causing the purchase price to fluctuate weakly [3]. - For corn starch, the increasing supply of new - season corn reduces cost support, and the substitution advantage of tapioca starch squeezes market demand. However, the industry's operating rate is lower than the same period in previous years, the supply - side pressure is not large, and enterprise inventories have slightly declined. The corn starch market is generally in a bearish trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2140 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the 1 - 5 monthly spread is - 104 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the open interest of the active contract is 892,982 lots, up 39,613 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 74,538 lots, up 1,689 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 61,968 lots, unchanged [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2450 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; the 11 - 1 monthly spread is - 21 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the open interest of the active contract is 207,369 lots, up 5,801 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 51,697 lots, up 7,186 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 12,504 lots, unchanged; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 344 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2]. - CBOT corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 423.75 cents/bushel, up 4 cents; the total open interest is 1,543,065 contracts, up 13,269 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 51,186 contracts, down 15,017 contracts [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2253.33 yuan/ton, down 4.91 yuan; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2180 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CIF price of imported corn is 1981.94 yuan/ton, down 0.33 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 44 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main corn contract is 113.33 yuan/ton, down 11.91 yuan [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2510 yuan/ton, 2750 yuan/ton, and 2680 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 84 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the spread between Shandong starch and corn is 490 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 299 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 184 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Forecasted sown areas: In the U.S., it is 425.26 million hectares; in Brazil, it is 131 million hectares; in Argentina, it is 53 million hectares; in China, it is 295 million hectares; in Ukraine, it is 32 million hectares, all unchanged except for Ukraine which is up 1.5 million hectares [2]. - Forecasted yields: In the U.S., it is 36.44 million tons; in Brazil, it is 22.6 million tons; in Argentina, it is 7.5 million tons; in China, it is 44.3 million tons, all unchanged except for Brazil which is up 0.55 million tons [2]. - Corn inventories: In southern ports, it is 38.7 million tons, up 5.5 million tons; in northern ports, it is 93 million tons, down 22 million tons; the deep - processing corn inventory is 203.6 million tons, down 8.2 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn is 4 million tons, down 2 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 14,800 tons, down 1,140 tons [2]. - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2,927.2 million tons, up 99.9 million tons [2]. - Corn starch processing profits: In Shandong, it is 75 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Hebei, it is 89 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, it is 55 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Feed: The sample feed corn inventory days are 24.44 days, down 0.05 days; the deep - processing corn consumption is 122.31 million tons, up 3.04 million tons [2]. - Alcohol and starch enterprises: The alcohol enterprise operating rate is 53.19%, down 1.77%; the starch enterprise operating rate is 55.62%, down 1.12% [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Corn historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility is 8.32%, up 0.18%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.88%, up 0.06% [2]. - Corn option implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 10.28%, down 0.13%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.28%, down 0.13% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of October 20, the planting progress of the first - season corn in the 2025/26 season in Brazil's Paraná state was 94%, up from 90% last week [2]. - The Trump administration plans to provide a new round of aid funds to farmers affected by the trade war and bumper harvests and restart some core functions of the U.S. Department of Agriculture during the government shutdown [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the domestic market, the supply side shows that in mid - October 2025, the new cotton picking and selling progress in Xinjiang is faster than last year, but recent cold and snowy weather will slow down the picking. The new cotton price is around 6.2 yuan/kg, and the cost is still supported. The demand side indicates that the spinning mills' operating rate is low, and the peak season is weak, so the restocking enthusiasm is expected to be low. Overall, the large - scale acquisition and processing of new - season cotton bring significant hedging demand, with upward pressure and cost - based support below. Short - term cotton prices are expected to fluctuate [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13,575 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closed at 19,820 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. - Cotton futures' top 20 net positions were - 117,362 lots, down 10,259 lots; cotton yarn futures' top 20 net positions were - 139 lots, down 59 lots. - Cotton main contract positions were 599,556 lots, up 6,744 lots; cotton yarn main contract positions were 23,684 lots, up 449 lots. - Cotton warehouse receipts were 2,526 lots, down 39 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 6 lots, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - China's cotton price index (CCIndex:3128B) was 14,784 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,106 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan. - China's yarn price index for pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 20,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the arrival price of imported pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 21,213 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons. - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,716 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the national industrial cotton inventory was 861,000 tons, down 9,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton imports were 100,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, unchanged. - The profit from imported cotton was 733 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.0217 million tons, down 460,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days were 26.58 days, down 0.65 days; the grey fabric inventory days were 33.87 days, down 1.31 days. - The monthly cloth output was 2.701 billion meters, up 0.01 billion meters; the monthly yarn output was 2.0279 million tons, up 36,400 tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 14,145,904,000 US dollars, down 1,015,855,000 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 12,393,202,000 US dollars, up 789,193,000 US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options was 8.07%, down 1.26%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options was 8.07%, down 1.22%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 8.57%, down 0.02%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 7.98%, down 0.03% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of October 21, 2025, the cumulative notarized inspection of cotton in the 2025/26 season was 4,331,712 bales, totaling 978,606 tons, a year - on - year increase of 84.07%. The cumulative notarized inspection of Xinjiang cotton was 961,248 tons, a year - on - year increase of 85.69%. - ICE cotton futures fell on Wednesday due to the ongoing US government shutdown, which delayed the release of USDA reports and left the market without clear trading guidance. The December ICE cotton futures contract closed down 0.68 cents, or 1.06%, at 63.74 cents per pound [2].

| | | 沪镍产业日报 2025-10-23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 121380 | 0 11-12月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -230 | 30 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 15140 | -70 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 127005 | 5694 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -38124 | -1705 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 250854 | -24 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 34419 | 1300 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 6252 | -24 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 26881 | -72 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#镍现货价(日,元/吨) | 122150 | 50 现货均价:1#镍板:长江有色(日,元/吨) | 122150 | -50 | | | 上海电解镍: ...

沪锌产业日报 2025-10-23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22345 | 345 11-12月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | -45 | -30 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 3019.5 | 26 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 216678 | -13155 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | 5255 | 8190 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 65529 | 320 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 109627 | 2677 LME库存(日,吨) | 35300 | -1975 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网0#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 22100 | 200 长江有色市场1#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 22220 | 440 | | | ZN主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -245 | -145 LME锌升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | 338.74 | 39.4 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract oscillates strongly, with increasing open interest, spot discount, and weakening basis. Fundamentally, the tight supply of copper concentrates persists, TC fees remain in the negative range, and overseas mine disturbances still impact, keeping ore prices firm. On the supply side, due to many maintenance operations and tight supplies of copper ore and blister copper, smelting capacity may be limited. Additionally, the price of smelting by - product sulfuric acid shows signs of decline, affecting smelting profits and potentially reducing the operating rate, leading to a gradual contraction of domestic refined copper supply. On the demand side, copper prices remain high due to cost support and overseas macro - sentiment. Downstream buyers are hesitant due to high prices, adopting a cautious wait - and - see procurement strategy, resulting in a weak spot market trading sentiment. High copper prices suppress downstream demand. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with industrial inventory accumulation. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.25, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0273, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market and a slight decline in implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are above the 0 - axis with expanding red bars. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 86,070 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 10,800 dollars/ton, up 137 dollars. The spread between different months of the main contract is 70 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 248,626 lots, up 15,265 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 20,115 lots, down 2,529 lots. The LME copper inventory is 136,850 tons, down 300 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange cathode copper inventory is 110,240 tons, up 550 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 9,275 tons, down 525 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange cathode copper warrants are 36,048 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 85,490 yuan/ton, up 535 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 85,465 yuan/ton, up 410 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 50 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 40 dollars/ton, up 6 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 580 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 6.36 dollars/ton, up 23.86 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 258.69 million tons, down 17.20 million tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 40.97 dollars/thousand tons, down 0.61 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 75,730 yuan/metal ton, up 410 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 76,430 yuan/metal ton, up 410 yuan. The southern processing fee for blister copper is 1,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the northern processing fee is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 126.60 million tons, down 3.50 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 490,000 tons, up 60,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 58,190 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 71,850 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 650 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 223.20 million tons, up 1.00 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 379.576 billion yuan, up 48.079 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 6,770.571 billion yuan, up 739.652 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,371,236,100 pieces, up 120,949 pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 22.66%, down 0.08%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.94%, unchanged. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month is 16.34%, down 0.0124. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.25, down 0.0273 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The new development concept of innovation, coordination, green development, openness, and sharing is the "ballast stone" and "power source" for China's economic ship to foster new opportunities in crises and open new situations in changes. China should develop new - quality productivity according to local conditions and enhance the support capacity of the modern industrial system for high - quality development. Trump expects to reach a good trade agreement with Chinese leaders during the APEC informal leaders' meeting next week, but the meeting may be cancelled. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responds that head - of - state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable strategic leading role in Sino - US relations, and the two leaders maintain close communication. The "Energy - Saving and New - Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0" is released, aiming for a new - energy passenger vehicle penetration rate of over 85% by 2040, with BEV accounting for 80%, and the full popularization of L4 - level intelligent connected vehicles and the entry of L5 - level intelligent connected vehicles into the market. The deputy minister of the Ministry of Natural Resources says that the total output value of China's geographic information industry in 2025 will reach nearly one trillion yuan, and efforts should be made to strengthen the construction of spatio - temporal information infrastructure and open data resources related to people's livelihood. The US government shutdown has lasted 22 days, and it may last until November and exceed the 35 - day record in Trump's first term [2]

| | | ，现货升水维持400元/吨；LME库存小幅增加，现货升水小幅回升。操作上，建议暂时观望，或轻仓做多 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 。 免责声明 沪锡产业日报 2025-10-23 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 281230 | -450 11月-12月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -420 | -50 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 23, the JM2601 contract closed at 1258.5, up 5.14%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 coking coal was reported at 1460, equivalent to 1240 on the futures market. Due to political unrest in Mongolia affecting port clearance vehicle numbers and supply - side disturbances, the market sentiment was positive. The mine - end开工率 declined due to safety inspections, with neutral inventory, while the coal washery开工率 increased for two consecutive weeks, and inventory was expected to rise seasonally. Technically, the daily K - line was above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a wide - range volatile operation [2]. - On October 23, the J2601 contract closed at 1768.0, up 4.21%. The coke price increase was implemented on October 1. In terms of the macro - aspect, the EU's 19th round of sanctions against Russia would include four companies involved in circumventing Western sanctions in the Chinese oil industry. In terms of fundamentals, the hot metal output this period was 240.95 tons, a decrease of 0.59 tons, with high - level fluctuations. The total coke inventory was higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 13 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line was above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a wide - range volatile operation driven by costs [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价 was 1258.50 yuan/ton, up 49.00; J主力合约收盘价 was 1768.00 yuan/ton, up 58.50 [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量 was 939022.00 hands, up 106904.00; J期货合约持仓量 was 49180.00 hands, up 1686.00 [2]. - The net position of the top 20 JM contracts was - 47469.00 hands, up 30131.00; the net position of the top 20 J contracts was - 3935.00 hands, up 19.00 [2]. - The JM5 - 1 month contract spread was 66.50 yuan/ton, down 8.50; the J5 - 1 month contract spread was 128.00 yuan/ton, down 17.00 [2]. - The JM warehouse receipt was 100.00 (down 100.00); the J warehouse receipt was 2070.00 (unchanged) [2]. - The price of Ganqimao Du Meng 5 raw coal increased by 6.00 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 155.00 US dollars/wet ton, up 2.50 [2]. - The price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke was 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Jingtang Port Australian imported main coking coal was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced main coking coal was 1710.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur main coking coal was 1450.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal was 1230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The JM主力合约基差 was 191.50 yuan/ton, down 49.00; the J主力合约基差 was - 48.00 yuan/ton, down 58.50 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washeries was 26.70 million tons, up 0.60; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washeries was 289.60 million tons, down 0.80 [2]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washeries was 0.37%, up 0.01; the monthly raw coal output was 41150.50 million tons, up 2100.80 [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 4600.00 million tons, up 326.00; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 191.00 million tons, down 5.10 [2]. - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 488.16 million tons, down 19.31; the weekly inventory of coking coal at independent coking enterprises (full - sample) was 997.37 million tons, up 38.31; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports was 252.65 million tons, up 0.06; the weekly inventory of coke at independent coking enterprises (full - sample) was 57.29 million tons, down 6.55 [2]. - The weekly inventory of coking coal at 247 steel mills nationwide was 788.32 million tons, up 7.19; the weekly inventory of coke at 247 sample steel mills was 639.44 million tons, down 11.38 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises (full - sample) was 12.90 days, up 0.24; the weekly available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills was 11.19 days, down 0.23 [2]. - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 1092.36 million tons, up 76.14; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 54.00 million tons, down 1.00 [2]. - The monthly output of coking coal was 3696.86 million tons, down 392.52; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 75.18%, up 0.05 [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 13.00 yuan/ton, down 22.00 [2]. - The monthly output of coke was 4255.60 million tons, down 4.10 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 84.25%, unchanged; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.31%, down 0.22 [2]. - The monthly crude steel output was 7349.01 million tons, down 387.84 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Some open - pit coal mines in Wuhai and Qipanjing stopped production due to slope treatment and resource restructuring. With stricter environmental inspections, the shipment of operating coal mines was restricted, but the impact on output was small. The safety inspection in Qipanjing affected production, reducing the supply of raw coking coal in the Wuhai market. The online auction of coal showed a premium, and the price of clean coal was planned to increase [2]. - Political unrest in Mongolia affected port clearance vehicle numbers, causing supply - side disturbances and positive market sentiment [2]. - The EU's 19th round of sanctions against Russia would include four companies involved in circumventing Western sanctions in the Chinese oil industry [2].