| | | 甲醇产业日报 2025-10-14 地区集中卸货导致库存明显增加，10 月甲醇进口预期依然充足，港口库存仍有上升可能。需求方面，青海 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2274 | -68 甲醇1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -26 | -14 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 1051360 | 59418 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -146230 | -30507 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 11282 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2230 | -60 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 2082.5 | 12.5 8 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 147.5 | -72.5 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -44 | | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The domestic sugar market has a significant increase in inventory compared to the previous season, with the combined industrial inventory of Guangxi and Yunnan reaching 646,800 tons as of September, a year - on - year increase of over 60%. With the start of production in sugar factories in the northern sugar beet producing areas and the expected arrival of 460,000 tons of out - of - quota raw sugar in September, the supply will gradually increase. The Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract should be treated as short - term bearish [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5,397 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan; the main contract position is 422,156 lots, up 32,133 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts is 8,488, down 193; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 68,435 lots, up 6,829 lots; the total forecast of effective warehouse receipts for sugar is 0, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The import processing estimated price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,426 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan; the import processing estimated price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4,446 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan; the estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,621 yuan/ton; the estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,647 yuan/ton; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,780 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price in Nanning is 5,810 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price in Liuzhou is 5,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the planting area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares; the national total sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, up 54,900 tons; the national total sugar sales volume is 9.9998 million tons, up 449,800 tons; the national sugar sales rate is 89.98%, up 1 percentage point; the monthly import volume of sugar is 830,000 tons, up 90,000 tons; the total sugar exports from Brazil are 3.2458 million tons, down 498,200 tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,257 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) is 62 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,237 yuan/ton; the price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) is 36 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan [2] 产业情况 - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,257 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) is 62 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,237 yuan/ton; the price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) is 36 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 454,100 tons, up 44,100 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1.7758 million tons, down 20,800 tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.31%, up 0.13 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 8.32%, up 0.14 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.89%, up 0.16 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.69%, up 0.06 percentage points [2] Industry News - India exported 7.75 million tons of sugar from October 2024 to September 2025. Brazil exported 1.8014 million tons of sugar in the first two weeks of October, with an average daily export volume of 225,200 tons, a 33% increase compared to the average daily export volume of 169,500 tons in October last year. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) fell 0.49 cents, or 3.0%, to settle at 15.61 cents per pound due to the prospect of oversupply [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The new - season main - producing area's jujube growth is better than last year, and the new jujubes are expected to be harvested about a week earlier than last year. Attention should be paid to the new jujube purchase price. The physical inventory of 36 sample points as of October 9, 2025, decreased by 36 tons compared with last week, a 0.39% month - on - month decrease and a 93.89% year - on - year increase. During the Double Festival, the arrival volume in the sales area was small, and the number of customers was average. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the Zhengzhou Jujube 2601 contract in the short term [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for jujubes was 11,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 160,756 lots, a decrease of 2,198 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 3,401 lots, a decrease of 630 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 0, and the total valid warehouse receipt forecasts were 0 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The unified price of Kashgar jujubes was 6 yuan/kg, the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 4.75 yuan/jin, the unified price of Alar jujubes was 5.2 yuan/kg, the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Henan was 4.75 yuan/jin, the unified price of Aksu jujubes was 4.8 yuan/kg, the price of special - grade jujubes in Henan was 10.5 yuan/kg, the price of special - grade jujubes in Hebei was 10.61 yuan/kg (an increase of 0.06 yuan), the price of special - grade jujubes in Guangdong was 11.6 yuan/kg, and the price of first - grade jujubes in Guangdong was 10.6 yuan/kg [2]. 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual jujube output was 6.069 million tons, an increase of 3.187 million tons; the jujube planting area was 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national jujube inventory was 9,167 tons, a decrease of 36 tons; the monthly jujube export volume was 2,364,893 kg, an increase of 580,729 kg; the cumulative monthly jujube export volume was 21,264,731 kg, an increase of 2,364,893 kg [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative quarterly sales volume of jujubes by Hao Xiang Ni was 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons; the cumulative year - on - year quarterly jujube production growth rate was 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, 5 trucks of jujubes arrived, and after the weather cleared, the number of customers increased, with about 40% of the market transactions. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 1 truck of jujubes arrived, the price remained stable, and customers purchased as needed, with fair transactions in the market and cold storage [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic supply - demand of pure benzene remains weak, with petroleum benzene profits staying at a relatively low level. This week, the restart of some domestic petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene plants is expected to further increase pure benzene production. In October, new downstream plants of styrene, caprolactam, and phenol are planned to be put into operation, with a converted production capacity higher than that of pure benzene. However, large - scale styrene plants are still in the maintenance period, and there are expectations of a decline in the load of caprolactam, phenol, and adipic acid plants this week, resulting in a persistently weak demand side in the short term. The market sentiment is weak due to the ongoing Sino - US trade dispute, and the downward trend of the BZ2603 contract may continue [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main pure benzene contract was 5,597 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; the settlement price was 5,624 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan. The trading volume was 5,926 lots, down 742 lots; the open interest was 14,189 lots, up 635 lots. The mainstream price of pure benzene in the East China market was 5,630 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; in the North China market, it was 5,510 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of pure benzene in the South China market was 5,650 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in the Northeast region, it was 5,505 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. The offshore intermediate price of pure benzene in South Korea was 690 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars; the CFR intermediate price of pure benzene in China was 703.08 US dollars/ton, down 3.02 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 64.38 US dollars/barrel, down 0.7 US dollars; the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in the Japanese region was 566.75 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 78.14%, up 0.13 percentage points; the weekly output was 46.02 tons, up 0.32 tons. The port inventory of pure benzene was 9.1 tons, down 1.5 tons. The production cost was 5,327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan; the production profit was 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene was 73.61%, up 2.37 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam was 95.72%, up 6.41 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of phenol was 78.54%, down 0.46 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of aniline was 69.24%, down 0.1 percentage point; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid was 64.3%, up 2 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From October 4th to 10th, the capacity utilization rate of petroleum benzene increased by 0.55% to 79.29%, and that of hydrogenated benzene decreased by 0.75% to 63.24%. The weighted开工率 of pure benzene downstream increased by 1.56% to 77.72%. As of October 13th, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports was 9.0 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.10%. The BZ2603 contract fell 1.93% to close at 5,597 yuan/ton. From October 9th to 11th, the profit of Chinese petroleum benzene was 314 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan/ton from the previous week [2].

积累，限制需求端提升空间。库存压力偏高，或维持缓慢去化趋势。近期美国对华关税言论有所软化，昨 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 日国际油价小幅反弹。受中美贸易争端持续影响，市场情绪偏弱，日内工业品以跌为主。技术上，EB2511 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 6544 429156 | -146 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, 16200 11月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) 手) | 219541 6544 | -5144 -146 | | 期货市场 | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | | | | | | | | 319760 | 1239 前20名持仓:净买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | -3028 | 6636 | | | 手) 前20名持仓:卖单量:苯乙烯(日,手) 现货价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 432184 ...

苹果产业日报 2025-10-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) 26 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果(日,手) | 8664 5696 | 1474 | 116620 | -6193 | | 现货市场 | 甘肃静宁苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, 山东沂源苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, | 5 | 1 | 2.3 | 0 | | | 元/斤) 陕西洛川苹果现货价格(纸袋70#以上半 元/斤) 山东烟台栖霞现货价格(纸袋80#以上一 | | | | | | | | 4.2 | 0 | 3.7 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 商品)(日,元/斤) 二级果农货)(日,元/斤) 全国:苹果产量(年,万吨) | 5128.51 | 168.34 | | | | 产业情况 | 批发价:苹果(周,元/公斤) -0.08 平均批发价:富士苹果(周,元/公斤) | 9.69 | | 9.34 | 0. ...

。对工业硅需求为负。铝合金方面，整体库存继续大幅上行，价格走高，但铝合金行业开工情况稳定，但 需求表现较为一般，对工业硅拉动有限。整体而言，三大下游行业对工业硅总需求依旧呈现负向。当前行 免责声明 业库存仍处于高位，尽管标准仓单数量有所减少，但库存消化仍面临一定压力。今日工业硅有所补跌，但 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 是后期供应预计减少，操作上建议,逢低布局多单。 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 工业硅产业日报 2025-10-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 8520 | -285 主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 162674 | -3048 | | | 前20名净持仓(日,手) | -42519 ...

明显，但整体房价依旧是一线龙头企稳，其他城市未有良好表现，故需求端企稳迹象恐难持续，本周市场 重新交易贸易战再起后对于央行能否重新启动新的货币政策工具，后续有望从供需端交易，转向政策端交 易，节后供应小幅收缩、库存压力减轻、政策预期支撑" 的格局，价格震荡上行概率较大，但仍需警惕需 求不及预期的风险。玻璃今日继续下跌，房地产依旧未有较大机会，整体来说玻璃依旧底部徘徊。操作上 建议，玻璃主力短期逢低布局多单，注意操作风险。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-10-14 | 最新 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 项目类别 | 最新 环比 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The high production capacity pressure still exists, and combined with the decline in spot prices, the short - term near - month contracts should be treated with a short - selling strategy on rallies. The far - month contracts may be stronger than the near - month contracts, supported by the logic of production capacity reduction [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 2852 yuan/500 kilograms, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 13430 hands, with a week - on - week increase of 3531 hands [2]. - The egg futures monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 102 yuan/500 kilograms, and the trading volume of the active futures contract is 201629 hands, with a week - on - week decrease of 32748 hands [2]. - The registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 28 hands [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 2.81 yuan/jin, and the basis (spot - futures) is - 38 yuan/500 kilograms, with a week - on - week decrease of 44 yuan/500 kilograms [2]. Upstream Situation - The laying hen inventory index nationwide is 114.4 (with 2015 = 100), and the culled laying hen index is 93.61 (with 2015 = 100), with a week - on - week decrease of 5.59 [2]. - The average price of laying hen chicks in the main producing areas is 2.6 yuan/feather, and the new chick index nationwide is 73.35 (with 2015 = 100), with a week - on - week decrease of 5.05 [2]. - The average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.76 yuan/kg, and the breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.4 yuan/hen, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.51 yuan/hen [2]. - The average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas is 8.92 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.36 yuan/kg, and the age of culled chickens nationwide is 510 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 2 days [2]. Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables is 18.48 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of pork is 4.99 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan/kg [2]. - The average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.66 yuan/kg, the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.34 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 days [2]. - The weekly inventory in the production link is 1.5 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.24 days, and the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13121.03 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 264.92 tons [2]. Downstream Situation The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales area is 7179 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 442 tons [2]. Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong, the main producing area, is 5.51 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged from yesterday; the average price in Hebei is 5.40 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.22 yuan/kg from yesterday; the average price in Guangdong is 6.40 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged from yesterday; the average price in Beijing is 5.96 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged from yesterday [2]. - The inventory of laying hens in production is still high, old hens have not been over - culled, high production capacity is still the main concern of the market, and post - festival consumption has seasonally declined. The loose supply - demand situation of eggs is expected to continue, which also continuously suppresses the near - month contracts [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday, the HC2601 contract decreased with increasing positions. In terms of macro - aspects, from January to September this year, the State Grid completed fixed - asset investment of over 420 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.1%. It is expected that the annual investment scale of the State Grid will exceed 650 billion yuan for the first time this year. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils remains high with a capacity utilization rate of 82.58%; demand has declined and inventory has increased. Overall, furnace materials have corrected, weakening cost support, and tariff disturbances will continue to affect market sentiment in the short term. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are operating below the 0 - axis. The operation strategy is to be bearish on the oscillation, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,241 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the position volume of the HC main contract is 1,451,729 lots, up 29,205 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is - 40,941 lots, up 6,074 lots; the HC1 - 5 contract spread is - 7 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt report of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 59,778 tons, up 8,406 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread is 180 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,320 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; in Guangzhou is 3,260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Wuhan is 3,370 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Tianjin is 3,220 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract is 79 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price difference between Hangzhou hot - rolled coils and rebar is 80 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port is 791 yuan/wet ton, up 4 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,280 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 2,940 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 140.2867 million tons, up 313,200 tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 425,500 tons, up 34,900 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.5057 million tons, down 125,400 tons; the inventory of Hebei billets is 1.276 million tons, up 79,400 tons [2] Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 84.25%, down 0.02 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.53%, down 0.10 percentage points. The output of hot - rolled coils of sample steel mills is 3.2329 million tons, down 14,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils of sample steel mills is 82.58%, down 0.37 percentage points. The inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 836,000 tons, up 24,000 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities is 3.293 million tons, up 299,200 tons. The domestic crude steel output is 77.37 million tons, down 2.29 million tons; the net export volume of steel is 9.917 million tons, up 907,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles is 3.276 million vehicles, up 460,600 vehicles; the monthly sales of automobiles is 3.226 million vehicles, up 369,400 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners is 16.8188 million units, down 3.7777 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators is 9.4532 million units, up 722,500 units; the monthly output of household washing machines is 10.1318 million units, up 1.3575 million units [2] Industry News - In early October 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.88 million tons, an increase of 1.21 million tons from the previous ten - day period, a growth of 8.2%; an increase of 3.51 million tons from the beginning of the year, a growth of 28.4%; an increase of 60,000 tons from the same ten - day period last month, a growth of 0.6%; an increase of 1.15 million tons from the same ten - day period last year, a growth of 7.8%; a decrease of 480,000 tons from the same ten - day period the year before last, a decline of 2.9%. From January to September, the production and sales of automobiles were 24.333 million and 24.363 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 12.9%. Among them, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles both exceeded 11 million, a year - on - year increase of over 30%, and the sales of new - energy vehicles accounted for 46.1% of the total sales of new vehicles [2]