瑞达期货研究院 「 2026.01.23」 甲醇市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议： MA2605合约短线关注前期高点附近压力，暂以观望为主。 3 行情回顾：本周港口甲醇市场震荡整理运行，其中江苏价格波动区间在2180-2250元/吨，广东价 格波动在2180-2240元/吨。内地甲醇价格持续下行，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1787- 1835元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间2115-2115元/吨。宏观情绪溢价消散，国产现货供应充 裕，中下游环节库存高企，需求季节性淡季等利空犹存，节前企业积极降价排库为主。 行情展望：近期国内甲醇检修、减产涉及产能损失量多于恢复涉及产能产出量，整体产量减少。 随着节前排库的进行，本周内地企业库存小幅下降，港口库存略有积累，江苏沿江主流库区提货 良好，少量卸货导致库存下降，而浙江烯烃目前均处停车，外轮集中卸货导致库存积累；华南港 口库存呈现累库，进口及 ...

研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.23」 白糖市场周报 关 注 微信客 服 号 添加客服 业务咨询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周郑糖2605合约价格下跌，周度跌幅约1.48%。 行情展望：据巴西蔗糖工业协会Unica称，2025年12月下半月巴西中南部地区压榨 甘蔗217.1万吨，同比增加26.6%；产糖5.6万吨，同比下降14.90%；25/26榨季(25 年4月-26年3月)截至1月1日巴西中南部累计压榨甘蔗6.004亿吨，同比下滑2.28%， 累计产糖4022.2万吨，同比增加0.86%，累计制糖比50.82%，高于去年同期 48.16%的2.66%。以上数据可以看出，12月下半月巴西产糖量同比下降，压榨尾 声，可压榨甘蔗趋于减少，预计后市供应减少，提供原糖价格一定支撑。国内基本 面表现相对平淡，春节备货接近尾声，且销区港口货物持续增加，旺季不旺背景下， 现货价格下调，期货市场缺乏现货支撑，价格继续下探可能。 未来关注因素： 1、国内进口 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「 2026.01.23」 尿素市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议： UR2605合约短线预计在1760-1820区间波动。 3 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场表现偏弱窄幅波动，截止本周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂至1690- 1740元/吨，均价环比下降25元/吨。各地尿素企业将陆续启动春节收单计划，随着工业需求减弱， 尿素日产逐渐提升，短时行情僵持中窄幅波动为主。 行情展望：前期部分检修装置恢复，带动国内尿素产量增加，下周暂无企业装置计划停车，4-6家 停车企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，预计产量增幅有限。近期苏皖以及其 他区域春节前农业备肥需求持续推进，但增量有限。工业领域维持刚需采购，复合肥本周产能利 用率环比回升，但因成品走货量减少，产能利用率或提升有限，板材开工逐渐下降，工业需求对 尿素支持减弱。本周国内尿素企业库存继续下降，降库主要集中在内蒙古区域，主产销区尿素企 业维持弱 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.23」 玉米类市场周报 现货市场偏强支撑 玉米期价继续收涨 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 3 联系电话：0595-86778969 Ø 玉米： Ø 行情回顾：本周玉米期货震荡收涨。主力2603合约收盘价为2300元/吨，较上周+19元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：美玉米供需格局较为宽松，继续牵制国际玉米市场价格。国内方面，东北产区截止1月 20日中储粮储备玉米累计销售成交量已近87万吨，随着拍卖底价下调，成交率大幅提升，市场看 涨预期有所收敛，加之随着年关临近，基层售粮主体基于变现需求，售粮心态已出现松动迹象， 深加工企业收购价格偏高，带动潮粮销售进度加快。深加工企业整体库存同比略低，春节前仍存 在一定备货需求，对价格仍有较强支撑作用。华北黄淮产区雨雪天气继续缩减，随着天气转好物 流运输陆续恢复，贸易商为缓和资金压力，也有意销售变现，整体购销活跃度有 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.23」 沪铜市场周报 供应充足需求暂稳，沪铜或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 80000 130000 180000 230000 280000 330000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 110000 2025-02-27 2025-04-27 2025-06-27 2025-08-27 2025-10-27 2025-12-27 主力合约收盘价及持仓 CUZL.SHF CUZL.SHF 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线高位震荡，周线涨跌幅为+0.57%，振幅2.77%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价101340元/吨。 后市展望：国际方面，美国2025年第三季度GDP终值年化环比增长4.4%，高于4.3%的初值，创下近两年来最快增速。美 联储青睐的通胀指标——11月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，环比上涨0.2%，均符合预期。美国上 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available Core Viewpoints of the Report - Most prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures rose this week. The main contract EC2604 closed down 1.24%, and the far - month contracts closed down 3 - 8% [6][42]. - The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight index was 1954.19, down 2.1 points from last week, a 0.1% month - on - month decline [6][42]. - The cancellation of full tax refunds for photovoltaic products is expected to lead to a rush for shipping, boosting long - term contract cargo volume. But after the trading sentiment stabilizes, the price increase fades, and with weakened spot - end support, the futures price declined [6][42]. - China's foreign trade in December 2026 rebounded beyond expectations, with both imports and exports improving significantly, possibly due to the cancellation of VAT export tax refunds for some goods and pre - holiday rush exports [6][42]. - China's exports are expected to maintain high growth in 2026 as its export competitiveness strengthens [6][42]. - Spot freight rates for the sixth week were between $2000 - $2600 for large containers. Some shipping companies in the PA alliance lowered their spot quotes in early February [6][42]. - There is an expectation that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may end in the first half of 2026, and the expectation of Red Sea shipping resumption has improved [6][42]. - The market is optimistic about the economic recovery in the eurozone, and inflation is approaching the target level, supporting the expectation that the European Central Bank will keep interest rates unchanged in the foreseeable future [6][42]. - The current price increase by shipping companies boosts the futures price, and the rush - export effect of the photovoltaic tax - refund policy supports contracts after April. However, China's exports to the US are still under pressure, and the traditional peak - season boost may be weaker than expected. Investors are advised to be cautious [7][43]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The main contract price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures first fell and then rose this week [13]. - The trading volume and open interest of the EC2604 contract both decreased [15]. - Here are the specific data of futures contracts and spot index: | Futures/Spot | Contract/Index Name | Weekly Change Rate (%) | Weekly Change | Closing Price | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Futures | EC2602 | 0.33 | 5.70 | 1717.70 | | Futures | EC2604 | - 1.24 | - 14.30 | 1138.30 | | Futures | EC2606 | 4.71 | 63.50 | 1412.90 | | Futures | EC2608 | 1.67 | 24.50 | 1495.50 | | Futures | EC2610 | 1.62 | 17.40 | 1093.00 | | Futures | EC2612 | 1.05 | 13.90 | 1338.50 | | Spot | SCFIS | - 0.10 | - 2.10 | 1954.19 | [10] 2. News Review and Analysis | News | Impact | | --- | --- | | The central bank governor said that in 2026, a moderately loose monetary policy will continue, with room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts. The financial market will be kept stable, and the RMB exchange rate will be basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. | Neutral | | The Greenland crisis has turned around. Trump announced an agreement framework on Greenland with the NATO Secretary - General, and the originally planned tariffs on February 1 will not be implemented. | Bearish | | The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3% and also raised the forecasts for China, the US, the eurozone, and Japan. | Bullish | | Fed Governor Bowman said that the current monetary policy is moderately restrictive. If employment does not improve, the Fed should be ready to cut interest rates further. | Neutral | [18] 3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts both shrank this week [26]. - The export container freight index fluctuated slightly this week [30]. - Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, and the shipping capacity on the European line rebounded slightly. The BDI and BPI declined, and freight rates fluctuated slightly [34]. - The charter price of Panamax ships rebounded this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar narrowed [37]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The current price increase by shipping companies boosts the futures price, and the rush - export effect of the photovoltaic tax - refund policy supports contracts after April. However, China's exports to the US are still under pressure, and the traditional peak - season boost may be weaker than expected. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping - capacity, and cargo - volume data in a timely manner [7][43].

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.1.23」 股指期货周报 作者：廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息面概览 3、周度市场数据 4、行情展望与策略 「摘要」 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅% | 周五涨跌幅% | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF2603 | -0.03 | -0.15 | 4709.2 | | | IH2603 | -1.51 | -0.66 | 3037.8 | | | IC2603 | 5.45 | 3.36 | 8658.2 | | | IM2603 | 4.13 | 3.06 | 8516.6 | | 现货 | 指数名称 | | | 收盘价 | | | 沪深300 | -0.62 | -0.45 | 4702.50 | | | 上证50 | -1.54 | -0.69 | 3032.19 | | | 中证500 | 4.34 | 2.42 | 8590.17 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market sentiment has recovered as some negative factors eased. The regulatory adjustment of the margin ratio for margin trading cooled the equity market, leading to a decline in market risk appetite. In 2025, China's economic structural contradictions still need improvement. In the next stage, facing significant external uncertainties, the endogenous growth foundation of the economy needs further consolidation, and expanding domestic demand will become the policy focus. The central bank stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year as internal and external constraints weaken. The issuance pace of interest rate bonds in January was stable, alleviating market concerns about the supply pressure of long - term bonds. It is expected that interest rates will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, and the market is still waiting for new incremental information for directional selection [102][103]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 30 - year TL2603 contract rose 1.03%, the 10 - year T2603 contract rose 0.12%, the 5 - year TF2603 contract rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2603 contract rose 0.02%. The trading volume of TF, T, TS, and TL main contracts decreased. The open interest of the TS main contract decreased, while that of TF, T, and TL main contracts increased [12][27]. 3.2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.0% year - on - year, with a 4.5% increase in the fourth quarter. Fiscal and financial policies to boost domestic demand were introduced, including a 500 billion yuan private investment special guarantee plan and loan discount policies. The National Development and Reform Commission planned to implement measures to boost employment and income, and support the service industry. The first batch of 93.6 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for equipment renewal was issued [33][34]. - **Overseas News**: The US economy showed strong data, with the Q3 2025 GDP final value growing at an annualized rate of 4.4% quarter - on - quarter. The core PCE price index in November increased by 2.8% year - on - year. The situation in Greenland eased, and the US president reached a "framework agreement" with NATO on the Greenland issue [35][102]. 3.3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes**: The yield spreads between 10 - year and 5 - year, and 10 - year and 1 - year bonds narrowed. The spreads between 2 - year and 5 - year, and 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts widened. The 10 - year contract's inter - period spread narrowed, the 30 - year contract's inter - period spread widened, the 5 - year contract's inter - period spread narrowed, and the 2 - year contract's inter - period spread fluctuated [41][50][54]. - **Main Contract Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 holders of the T main contract increased significantly [68]. - **Interest Rate Changes**: Overnight, 2 - week, and 1 - week Shibor rates increased, while the 1 - month Shibor rate decreased. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded to around 1.49%. The yields of treasury bonds decreased across the board, with the 1.7 - year yield decreasing by 1 - 4.3bp, and the 10 - year and 30 - year yields decreasing by 1.1bp and 4.85bp to 1.83% and 2.26% respectively. The yield spreads between US and Chinese 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds widened [72][78]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the total bond issuance was 1.569038 trillion yuan, the total repayment was 1.019335 trillion yuan, and the net financing was 549.703 billion yuan [85]. - **Market Sentiment**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.9929, up 149 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates narrowed. The 10 - year US treasury bond yield increased, the VIX index rose sharply and then fell. The 10 - year treasury bond yield in China decreased, and the A - share risk premium remained the same as last week [91][94][99]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategies - **Domestic**: In 2025, China's economy maintained a stable and progressive growth trend, but there were significant internal structural differences. The growth momentum mainly relied on strong exports and stable production, while domestic demand recovery was more policy - driven, and the self - growth momentum of investment and consumption was insufficient [102]. - **Overseas**: The US economic data was strong, and the consumer resilience supported economic expansion. The situation in Greenland improved [102]. - **Outlook**: With the easing of some negative factors, the bond market sentiment has recovered. It is expected that interest rates will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, and the market is waiting for new information for directional selection [103].

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.1.23」 宏观市场周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 作者：廖宏斌 联系电话：4008-8787-66 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、本周小结及下周 配置建议 2、重要新闻及事件 3、本周国内外经济 数据 4、下周重要经济指 标及经济大事 「本周小结及下周配置建议」 | 股票 | 债券 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪深 300 -0.62% | 10 年国债到期收益率-0.37%/本周变动-0.68BP | | | 沪深 300 股指期货 -0.21% | 主力 10 年期国债期货 +0.12% | | | 本周点评：A股主要指数本周普遍上涨，除创业板指下 | 本周点评：本周国债期货集体走强，TS、TF、T、TL主 | | | 跌外，其余指数均有不同程度上涨。四期指亦表现分化， | 力合约分别上涨0.02%、0.07%、0.12%、1.03%。随 | | | 中小盘股表现强势，而大盘蓝筹股走弱。本周，国内 | 着部分利空因素缓和，债市情绪持续好转。2025年我 | | | 2025年经济数据公布，全年经济增 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.23」 生猪市场周报 备货启动在即，供需博弈加剧 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z001845 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 联系电话：059586778969 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：生猪价格破位下跌，主力合约2603合约周度下跌3.46%。 行情展望：上中旬出栏节奏偏慢，月末出栏恐保持正常出栏节奏，且有可能2月出栏提前出栏，供应 或有所增加，关注养殖端出栏节奏。需求端，预计未来三周春节前备货逐渐启动，需求有望再度改善。 总体来说，供应增加，春节前备货也将启动，供需双双增加，两者博弈加剧，生猪价格震荡运行。中 期供应仍将继续兑现，价格上方承压。 「 期货市场情况」 4 「 期货市场情况」 本周期货净持仓净空减少，期货仓单815张 图2、生猪前20名持仓变化 本周期货下行 图1、大连生猪期货价格走势图 来源：文化财经 瑞达期货研究院 生猪价格破位下跌，主力合约2603合约周度下跌3.46%。 来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院 图3、生猪期货仓单情况 0 ...