天然橡胶产业日报 2025-10-14 ，装置产能将逐步释放，本周国内轮胎企业产能利用率预计将明显走高。ru2601合约短线预计在14750-154 00区间波动，nr2512合约短线预计在11850-12350区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 数据指标 | 项目类别 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | | 14845 | -95 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 11990 | -50 | | 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | 期货市场 | 15 | 0 20号胶11-12 ...

沪铅产业日报 2025-10-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 17050 | -45 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 1993.5 | | -21 | | 期货市场 | 11-12月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -10 | 5 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 83607 | | 874 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | -3855 | 528 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 30705 | | 1136 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 39916 | -1978 LME铅库存(日,吨) | 237000 | | 0 | | | 上海有色网1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 16875 | -50 长江有色市场1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 16990 | | -140 | | 现货市场 | 铅主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -175 | -5 LME铅升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | -45.35 | ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4692 | -29 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 736644 | 94686 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1254279 | 19246 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 921931 | 15375 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 1077284 | 17675 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -155353 | -2300 | | 现货市场 | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 4890 | 0 华东:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4625 | -19.23 | | | 华南:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 4845 | -40 华南:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4694.38 | -5 | | | PVC:中国:到岸价(日,美元/吨) | 700 | 0 PVC:东南亚 ...

研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-10-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 10780 | -140 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 29075 | -2938 | | | 合成橡胶10-11价差(日,元/吨) | -110 | -20 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 3070 | 200 | | | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 11150 | -50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 11100 | -100 | | 现货市场 | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | 11100 | 东(日,元/吨) -100 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | 11200 | -100 | | | 海(日,元/吨) 基差:合成橡胶(日 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic cotton market has low commercial inventory, but the new - year harvest is significant, increasing supply pressure. The demand side shows no obvious improvement in textile factory orders, with the operating rate lower than the same period last year, and the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season did not occur. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to post - holiday restocking and the listing rhythm [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closed at 13,265 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closed at 19,290 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 66,624 lots, up 551 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures was - 560 lots, down 214 lots. - The position volume of the main cotton contract was 567,989 lots, up 4,581 lots; the position volume of the main cotton yarn contract was 16,412 lots, up 2,780 lots. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 2,823, down 44; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged [2] Spot Market - China's imported cotton price index (1% tariff) was 14,755 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the landed price of imported cotton yarn (pure - combed 32 - count) was 20,440 yuan/ton, unchanged. - China's imported cotton price index (sliding - scale duty) was 13,866 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the landed price of imported cotton yarn (pure - combed 32 - count) was 22,524 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, up 0.54 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,685 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton was 870,000 tons, up 13,000 tons. - The monthly import volume of cotton was 70,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 130,000 tons, up 20,000 tons. - The profit of imported cotton was 903 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national commercial inventory of cotton was 1.4817 million tons, down 708,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days were 26.58 days, down 0.65 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were 33.87 days, down 1.31 days. - The monthly output of cloth was 2.701 billion meters, up 0.01 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn was 2.0279 million tons, up 36,400 tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 14,145,904,000 US dollars, down 1,015,855,000 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 12,393,202,000 US dollars, up 789,193,000 US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton was 9.72%, up 0.95%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton was 9.71%, up 0.98%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 7.29%, down 0.03%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 7.76%, unchanged [2] Industry News - In September 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 24.4197 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.50% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.99%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing exports were 221.6863 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. - The ICE cotton futures closed down on Monday due to lingering demand concerns caused by trade tensions [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea supply level has little fluctuation, with daily output around 200,000 tons. After the holiday, due to the start - up of device maintenance in individual enterprises in Ningxia and Shanxi, and the continuous shutdown and transformation of enterprises in Jincheng, Shanxi, the output continues to decline. Domestic agricultural demand has a slight increase but no obvious improvement overall. Industrial demand is relatively stable. The autumn fertilizer production of compound fertilizers is in the later stage, and the demand in most parts of North China is weakening. The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate is expected to decline slightly. India's RCF has issued a new round of international urea import tenders, but due to the approaching end of China's export window period and the unclear export policy, the impact on the domestic urea market needs continuous tracking. The domestic enterprises still face high - inventory pressure. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,580 - 1,630 yuan/ton in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is 1,597 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 74 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan. The main contract's position is 321,992 lots, down 4,162 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 44,696. The exchange's warehouse receipts are 6,570, down 347 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei is 1,570 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; in Henan, it is 1,520 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is 1,530 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Shandong, it is 1,550 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Anhui, it is 1,550 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is - 47 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan. FOB Baltic is 370 US dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB China's main port is 385 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 415,000 tons, down 38,000 tons; the enterprise inventory is 1,443,900 tons, up 212,200 tons. The urea enterprise's operating rate is 85.66%, up 0.08%. The daily urea output is 200,400 tons, up 200 tons. The urea export volume is 800,000 tons, up 23. The monthly urea output in September 2025 is 5,747,700 tons, 181,200 tons less than last month and 110,900 tons more than the same period [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer's operating rate is 25.5%, down 6.96%. The melamine's operating rate is 65.47%, up 3.95%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 177 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with outsourced urea is 31 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 5,313,300 tons, up 1,092,100 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 30,000 tons, up 1,800 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of October 9, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 144.39 million tons, up 17.23% from last week. The port inventory is 41.5 million tons, down 8.39% from last week. In September 2025, China's urea output is 5.7477 million tons, 181,200 tons less than last month and 110,900 tons more than the same period. The daily urea output has a slight decline, but it remains above 190,000 tons in the short term [2] 3.6 Tip for Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]

塑料产业日报 2025-10-14 情绪偏弱，日内工业品以跌为主。短期L2601预计震荡走势，技术上关注6891附近低位支撑与7034附近五 日均线压力。 免责声明 长期看PE供应或将出现较大幅度提升。下游棚膜需求逐渐进入年内高位，但目前农膜订单、开工表现均不 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 及往年水平。近期美国对华关税言论有所软化，昨日国际油价小幅反弹。受中美贸易争端持续影响，市场 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6918 | -65 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6918 | -65 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/ ...

料需求增长将部分抵消P型过剩，可能对价格有一定的支撑作用。市场目前正在观察下游能否顺利涨价，但 情况不容乐观，多晶硅继续受到了基本面情绪压制，但近期市场依旧有消息再影响多晶硅市场，今日市场 研究员: 黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 有开会消息传出，后经证实，为月度例会，但市场当下对于光伏行业依旧处于产能限制焦点阶段，故短期 免责声明 多晶硅预计在46000-48000区间内寻找支撑。操作建议，逢低布局多单 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 多晶硅产业日报 2025-10-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.170 | 0.11% T主力成交量 | 125811 | 39884↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.775 | 0.1% TF主力成交量 | 73462 | 13182↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.384 | 0.02% TS主力成交量 | 32167 | 509↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 114.760 | 0.34% TL主力成交量 | 155935 | 31191↑ | | 期货价差 | TL2512-2603价差 | 0.35 | +0.02↑ T12-TL12价差 | -6.59 | -0.22↓ | | | T2512-2603价差 | 0.31 | -0.01↓ TF12-T12价差 | -2.40 | -0.02↓ | | | TF2512-2603价差 | 0.11 | -0.01↓ TS12-T12价差 | -5.79 | -0.09↓ | | | TS251 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - On October 14, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,153.5, up 0.74%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was reported at 1,422, equivalent to 1,202 on the futures market. The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will be held from October 20 to 23 in Beijing. During the National Day, some regional coal mines carried out maintenance, leading to a slight decline in production and an increase in mine - end inventory. The cumulative growth rate of imports has been declining for three consecutive months, while inventory has been rising for three consecutive weeks with a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On October 14, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,653.5, up 0.74%. The price increase of coke was implemented on October 1. The World Steel Association released a new steel short - term demand forecast report on October 13, predicting a 1.3% mild rebound in global steel demand in 2026. In terms of fundamentals, on the demand side, the current hot metal output is 2.4181 million tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons, with hot metal remaining in a high - level oscillation. The total coke inventory is higher than the same period. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 9 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 1,153.50 yuan/ton, up 7.50 yuan; J main contract closing price: 1,654.50 yuan/ton, up 12.00 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract holding volume: 826,618.00 lots, up 25,658.00 lots; J futures contract holding volume: 50,460.00 lots, up 487.00 lots [2]. - Net holding volume of the top 20 JM contracts: - 92,926.00 lots, down 4,051.00 lots; net holding volume of the top 20 J contracts: - 4,449.00 lots, down 264.00 lots [2]. - JM 5 - 1 month contract spread: 80.50 yuan/ton, down 16.00 yuan; J 5 - 1 month contract spread: 142.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 200.00 sheets, unchanged; coke warehouse receipts: 2,190.00 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal: 1,030.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan; Tangshan Grade - 1 metallurgical coke: 1,720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR): 151.00 US dollars/wet ton, down 0.50 US dollars; Rizhao Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke: 1,520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal: 1,490.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port Grade - 1 metallurgical coke: 1,620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal: 1,630.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke: 1,520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal: 1,450.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan; J main contract basis: 65.50 yuan/ton, down 12.00 yuan [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1,180.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM main contract basis: 296.50 yuan/ton, down 27.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The refined coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants: 25.70 million tons per day, down 1.10 million tons; the refined coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants: 280.20 million tons per week, down 22.60 million tons [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants: 0.35%, down 0.02%; raw coal output: 39,049.70 million tons per month, up 951.00 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite imports: 4,600.30 million tons per month, up 326.30 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines: 183.90 million tons, down 10.30 million tons [2]. - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports: 507.47 million tons per week, up 5.00 million tons; the inventory of coke at 18 ports: 252.59 million tons per week, down 4.00 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The total inventory of coking coal in all - sample independent coking enterprises: 959.06 million tons per week, down 78.65 million tons; the total inventory of coke in all - sample independent coking enterprises: 63.84 million tons per week, up 1.53 million tons [2]. - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide: 781.13 million tons per week, down 6.93 million tons; the coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills: 650.82 million tons per week, down 12.58 million tons [2]. - The available days of coking coal in all - sample independent coking enterprises: 12.66 days per week, down 0.07 days; the available days of coke in 247 sample steel mills: 11.42 days per week, down 0.18 days [2]. - Coking coal imports: 1,016.22 million tons per month, up 55.50 million tons; coke and semi - coke exports: 55.00 million tons per month, down 34.00 million tons [2]. - Coking coal production: 3,696.86 million tons per month, down 392.52 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises: 75.18%, up 0.05% [2]. - Coke production: 4,259.70 million tons per month, up 74.20 million tons; the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants: 9 yuan/ton [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide: 84.25%, down 0.02%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 90.53%, down 0.10% [2]. - Crude steel production: 7,736.86 million tons per month, down 228.96 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From January to September, China exported 87.955 million tons of steel, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, with 10.465 million tons exported in September [2]. - The World Steel Association predicted that global steel demand will remain flat in 2025 at about 1.75 billion tons and will have a 1.3% mild rebound in 2026 to 1.772 billion tons [2]. - From January to September, the State Grid completed fixed - asset investment of over 420 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.1%, and the annual investment is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan for the first time [2]. - The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development proposed to develop new - quality productivity, accelerate the R & D and industrialization of new building materials, develop intelligent construction, and establish three systems for housing inspection, housing safety management funds, and housing insurance [2]. - Four mediating countries signed the "Comprehensive Document of the Gaza Cease - fire Agreement" [2].