Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic liquidity in 2025 is expected to remain loose, and more incremental policies may be introduced in Q4 to boost the real economy. The external risks are gradually easing, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is increasing, which further enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets. The current market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but it is necessary to adapt to the accelerating rotation of sectors and structural differentiation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes, which have more technology - growth components, are more offensive and volatile but may bring higher returns, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300, which have more dividend - blue - chip components, are more defensive with less volatility but relatively weaker price elasticity. The stock index has been rising since July and may experience short - term shock consolidation, but the probability of a medium - to - long - term upward trend is high [2][11]. - The double - coking futures are in a high - level shock trend. The current demand is in the off - season, and factors such as the expectation of coke price cuts and the low near - far - month price difference put pressure on the market, but policy expectations and the impact of over - production checks provide support [3][23]. - The palm oil price may be under pressure in the short term due to the lower - than - expected exports of Malaysian palm oil in August [3][25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Main News Concerns of the Day - **International News**: On September 10, Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs, had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio. Both sides emphasized the importance of the strategic guidance of the heads - of - state diplomacy, proper management of differences, and exploration of practical cooperation to promote the stable development of Sino - US relations [4][5]. - **Domestic News**: In August 2025, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.4% year - on - year. The average consumer price from January to August decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period of the previous year [6]. - **Industry News**: Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly deployed a special rectification action for network chaos in the automotive industry, aiming to strengthen the handling of network chaos such as online water armies, "black public relations", "black mouths", and "fan circles" in the automotive industry [7]. 3.2. Daily Earnings of Overseas Markets - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas market varieties on September 9 and 10, 2025, including the FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, etc. For example, the FTSE China A50 futures rose by 0.48% from September 9 to 10, and ICE Brent crude oil rose by 1.61% [8]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to have short - term shock consolidation but a high probability of medium - to - long - term upward trend. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures prices continued to fall. With the stabilization of the equity market and the gradual tightening of funds, the stock - bond seesaw effect continued. The new regulations on fund redemptions also disturbed the market, and long - term treasury bond futures prices hit new lows and are expected to remain weak [12]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 0.82% at night. Eight countries decided to increase the daily crude oil production quota by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the 1.65 million barrels of daily production cuts may be partially or fully restored [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 0.04% at night. The coastal methanol inventory increased significantly, and the overall device operating load increased. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term [14]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term. The supply is affected by the rainy season in the main production areas, and the demand is in the off - season with uncertainties [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins are running weakly. The supply has shrunk, and the market pressure has eased. The support from downstream inventory replenishment needs to be monitored [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures are in shock consolidation, and soda ash futures rebounded after hitting the bottom. Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and the futures prices are weak and approaching the spot prices. Attention should be paid to the autumn consumption and policy changes [18]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are strong. The weak US economic data and the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Fed, as well as other factors, support the rise of gold. Gold and silver are expected to be strong when the interest rate cut is approaching [19]. - **Copper**: Copper prices may fluctuate within a range. The concentrate supply is tight, and the smelting output is growing, while the downstream demand has both positive and negative factors [20]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices may fluctuate weakly within a range. The smelting output is expected to increase, and the short - term supply may be in surplus [21][22]. - **Black Products** - **Double - Coking**: The double - coking futures are in a high - level shock trend, with both pressure and support factors [3][23]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: Protein meal futures are expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The US soybean has strong support at the bottom, and the domestic raw material supply is expected to be loose [24]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil prices may be under pressure in the short term due to lower - than - expected exports from Malaysia in August [3][25]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be weak, while the domestic sugar price is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory but is also dragged down by import pressure. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the weak trend of international sugar [26]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton prices rose slightly. The domestic cotton market is waiting for new cotton acquisition and traditional peak - season demand guidance, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak in the short term [27]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index is in shock and decline. The spot freight rate of European routes is in the off - season and is expected to continue to decline. The market may be more in a shock state [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range as there are both bullish and bearish factors. Night - time copper prices rose 0.5%. The concentrate supply is tight, squeezing smelting profits, yet smelting output continues to grow strongly. The power industry shows positive growth, PV installations increased sharply year - on - year but future growth may slow, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector remains weak [2]. - Zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range and weak fluctuations. Night - time zinc prices rose 0.14%. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally recovered, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue rising. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly, and short - term supply - demand may tilt towards surplus [2]. Summary by Related Content Copper - Market performance: Night - time copper prices rose 0.5%, with the domestic previous date futures closing price at 79,780 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price at 10,013 dollars/ton, LME spot at a discount of 56.61 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract, and LME inventory at 155,275 tons, down 550 tons [2]. - Fundamental factors: Concentrate supply is tight, smelting profits are under pressure, but smelting output is growing strongly. The power industry has positive growth, PV installations increased sharply year - on - year with potential slowdown, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and real estate is weak [2]. - Outlook: Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range, and investors should focus on the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand changes [2]. Zinc - Market performance: Night - time zinc prices rose 0.14%, with the domestic previous date futures closing price at 22,140 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price at 2,888 dollars/ton, LME spot at a premium of 23.01 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract, and LME inventory at 51,025 tons, down 2,050 tons [2]. - Fundamental factors: Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally recovered, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly, infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and real estate is weak [2]. - Outlook: Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range and weak fluctuations, and investors should pay attention to the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand changes [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: Domestic previous date futures closing price was 20,790 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 50 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price at 2,622 dollars/ton, LME spot at a premium of 2.92 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract, and LME inventory at 485,275 tons with no change [2]. - Nickel: Domestic previous date futures closing price was 120,600 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 1,740 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price at 15,146 dollars/ton, LME spot at a discount of 182.88 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract, and LME inventory at 218,070 tons, up 456 tons [2]. - Lead: Domestic previous date futures closing price was 16,760 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 120 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price at 1,987 dollars/ton, LME spot at a discount of 44.17 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract, and LME inventory at 239,325 tons, down 3,800 tons [2]. - Tin: Domestic previous date futures closing price was 270,250 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 1,120 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price at 34,635 dollars/ton, LME spot at a premium of 27.00 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract, and LME inventory at 2,355 tons, up 75 tons [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Polyolefins are running weakly. The spot market of polyolefins is still mainly influenced by supply and demand. This summer's maintenance has been balanced. Currently, PE inventory is being slowly digested, and PP inventory has also improved. Last week, the production ratios of both decreased, supply contracted, market pressure eased, and the rebound of international crude oil prices also helped polyolefins stop falling. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of the situation in the Middle East on crude oil against the increase of OPEC, as well as potential changes in the Fed's interest rate policy. In the short term, focus on the support of downstream stockpiling for raw materials [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7226, 7237, and 7176 respectively, with changes of -3, -4, and 26 and percentage changes of -0.04%, -0.06%, and 0.36%. The trading volumes were 178117, 4302, and 50, and the open interests were 517187, 33638, and 8053 with changes of -790, -638, and 0. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -11, 61, and -50 compared to previous values of -12, 91, and -79 [2] - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6948, 6971, and 6854 respectively, with changes of -1, 4, and 33 and percentage changes of -0.01%, 0.06%, and 0.48%. The trading volumes were 172820, 6722, and 447, and the open interests were 614906, 52117, and 2319 with changes of 4233, 1211, and -379. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -23, 117, and -94 compared to previous values of -18, 146, and -128 [2] Raw Material & Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2408 yuan/ton, 6675 yuan/ton, 598 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2400 yuan/ton, 6625 yuan/ton, 594 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream**: For LL, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7150 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7350 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6750 - 6950 yuan/ton, 6700 - 6950 yuan/ton, and 6750 - 7000 yuan/ton respectively [2] Information - On Wednesday (September 10), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.67 per barrel, up $1.04 or 1.66% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.72 - $64.08. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.49 per barrel, up $1.10 or 1.66% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $66.66 - $67.78 [2]

2025年09月11日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | 021-50586292 | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2512 | TS2603 | TF2512 | TF2603 | T2512 | T2603 | TL2512 | TL2603 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.350 | 102.290 | 105.425 | 105.350 | 107.490 | 107.205 | 114.76 | 114.38 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.378 | 102.320 | 105.570 | 105.480 | 107.775 | 107.510 | 115.72 | 115.36 | | | 涨跌 | -0.028 | -0.030 | -0.145 | -0.130 | -0.285 | -0.305 | -0.96 ...

20250910申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 | | | | linxj@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50586279 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪金2510 | 沪金2512 | 沪银2510 | 沪银2512 | | | | 现价 | 832.60 | 835.26 | 9760.00 | 9782.00 | | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 834.48 | 837.10 | 9846.00 | 9867.00 | | | 货 | 涨跌 | -1.88 | -1.84 | -86.00 | -85.00 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -0.23% | -0.22% | -0.87% | -0.86% | | | 场 | | | | | | | | | 持仓量 | 124881 | 210552 | 223011 | 352855 | | | | 成交量 | 262249 | 153993 | 526614 | 277038 | | | | 现货升贴水 | -0.69 | -3.35 | 87.00 | 65. ...

报告日期：2025 年 9 月 10 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：蓄势调整，未来可期 国家体育总局副局长李静提出到 2030 年，体育产业总规模超过 7 万亿元。市场 监管总局已经及时约谈主要外卖平台，抵制恶性补贴。美国非农年度修正比预期 还差，下修 91.1 万，美联储降息压力加大，特朗普政府火力全开。美国最高法 院将快速审理特朗普关税案。马克龙任命第 5 位法国总理，为现年 39 岁的国防 部长勒科尔尼。原油盘中涨超 2%，以色列称精准打击卡塔尔的哈马斯高层、特 朗普"批准"。 重点品种：股指、原油、双焦 股指：美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指震荡回落，房地产板块领涨，电子板 块领跌，市场成交额 2.15 万亿元。资金方面，9 月 8 日融资余额增加 262.36 亿 元至 22975.43 亿元。2025 年我们认为国内流动性延续宽松，同时处于政策窗口 期，四季度为提振实体经济可能会出台更多的增量政策，同时外部风险逐步缓和， 美联储 9 月降息概率增加进一步提升人民币资产吸引力。当前市场处于"政策底 +资金底+估值底"共振期，但需适应板块轮动加速与结构分化。科技成长成分居 多的中证 500 和中证 ...

20250910申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 摘要 | 铜： 可能短期区间波动 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅偏弱波动 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收低。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润承压，但冶炼产量延 续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力行业延续正增长，光伏抢装同比陡 | | | 铜 | 增，未来增速可能放缓；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲 | 可能短期区 间波动 | | | 弱。多空因素交织，铜价可能区间波动。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需求 | | | | 等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨。锌精矿加工费总体回升，冶炼利润转正，冶炼产量有望 | | | | 持续回升。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存周度增加。基建投资累计增速小幅正增 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | 长，汽车产销正增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。短期供求差异可 | 幅偏弱波动 | | | 能向过剩倾斜，锌价可能区间偏弱波动。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下游需 | | | | 求等变化。 | | | | 分析师：李野 | | | | 从业资格号：F0 ...

2025年09月10日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2512 | TS2603 | TF2512 | TF2603 | T2512 | T2603 | TL2512 | TL2603 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.378 | 102.320 | 105.570 | 105.480 | 107.775 | 107.510 | 115.72 | 115.36 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.396 | 102.348 | 105.585 | 105.505 | 107.865 | 107.585 | 116.06 | 115.72 | | | 涨跌 | -0.018 | -0.028 | -0.015 | -0.025 | -0.090 | -0.075 | -0.34 ...

20250910申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃（LL&PP） | | 申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | | | | | LL | | | PP | | | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 7229 | 7241 | 7150 | 6949 | 6967 | 6821 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 | 7251 | 7261 | 7165 | 6968 | 6984 | 6853 | | 货 | 涨跌 | -22 | -20 | -15 | -19 | -17 | -32 | | 市 | 涨跌幅 成交量 | -0.30% 165835 | -0.28% 4725 | -0.21% 937 | -0.27% 164435 | -0.24% 5910 | -0.47% 277 | | ...

报告日期：2025 年 9 月 9 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：黄金高歌猛进，能化绿意盎然 中国 8 月按美元计价出口同比增长 4.4%，进口同比增长 1.3%，集成电路和汽车 出口增长明显；大宗商品进口季节性复苏、原油铁矿石铜回升，大豆进口量创历 史新高，稀土量减价增，出口价值环比上涨 51%。特朗普称准备对俄罗斯实施第 二阶段制裁。美财长称若最高法院维持裁决，将被迫退还半数关税。贝森特给出 "前瞻指引"：美国经济将在四季度"大幅加速"，制造业"不能弹指一挥间建 工厂"，批评美联储政策滞后。一年内第三位法国总理下台，贝鲁未通过信任投 票。 重点品种：股指、黄金、原油 股指：美国三大指数小幅上涨，上一交易日股指震荡分化，基础化工板块领涨， 通信板块领跌，市场成交额 2.46 万亿元。资金方面，9 月 5 日融资余额增加 70.96 亿元至 22713.07 亿元。2025 年我们认为国内流动性延续宽松，同时处于政策窗 口期，四季度为提振实体经济可能会出台更多的增量政策，同时外部风险逐步缓 和，美联储 9 月降息概率增加进一步提升人民币资产吸引力。当前市场处于"政 策底+资金底+估值底"共振期，但需适应板 ...