| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2506 | TS2509 | TF2506 | TF2509 | T2506 | T2509 | TL2506 | TL2509 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.368 | 102.590 | 106.020 | 106.315 | 108.770 | 108.920 | 119.26 | 119.52 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.402 | 102.608 | 106.165 | 106.420 | 108.970 | 109.100 | 119.4 | 119.6 | | | 涨跌 | -0.034 | -0.018 | -0.145 | -0.105 | -0.200 | -0.180 | -0.140 | -0.080 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0.0 ...

| | 1、据马来西亚棕榈油协会（MPOA）发布的数据，马来西亚4月1-20日棕榈油产量预估增加19.88% | | --- | --- | | | 。2、据美国农业部，美国2024/2025年度大豆出口净销售为27.7万吨，前一周为55.5万吨；美国 | | | 2024/2025年度对中国大豆净销售0.2万吨，前一周为7.3万吨。3、USDA最新干旱报告显示，截至 | | 行业 | 4月22日当周，约21%的美国大豆种植区域受到干旱影响，而此前一周为23%，去年同期为20%。4、 | | 信息 | 据巴西植物油行业协会（Abiove）董事表示，预计在贸易冲突背景下，巴西将在2025年向中国出 | | | 口更多大豆以及向主要客户出口更多的豆粕。5、加拿大谷物委员会发布的数据显示，截至04月20 | | | 日当周，加拿大油菜籽出口量较前周减少31.76%至14.05万吨，之前一周为20.59万吨。 | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆菜粕偏弱运行。国内豆粕短期库存偏低，近期贸易商报价大幅上行。但二季度国 | | | 内进口大豆供应增加，供应压力将限制价格上方空间。新季美豆种植面积下降，目前早播种地区 | | | 已 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The A-share market shows increasing resilience. Future focus should be on China's policies to boost the domestic economy. It is recommended to take a cautious long - position approach in operations. The impact of tariffs on the market has decreased, but the outcome of the Sino - US tariff dispute remains uncertain [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Futures**: The closing prices of IF contracts for different periods increased, with the increase ranging from 1.60 to 6.00. The trading volume of IF next month was 48,747.00, the highest among IF contracts. The open interest of most contracts decreased, except for the IF far - season contract which increased by 149.00 [1]. - **IH Futures**: The closing prices of IH contracts for different periods all increased, with an increase of about 8.00 - 8.80. The trading volume of IH next month was 24,156.00. The open interest of some contracts decreased, while the current - month and far - season contracts increased [1]. - **IC Futures**: The closing prices of IC contracts for different periods decreased, with a decrease of about 15.80 - 18.80. The trading volume of IC next month was 39,686.00. The open interest of most contracts decreased, except for the far - season contract which increased by 385.00 [1]. - **IM Futures**: The closing prices of IM contracts for different periods decreased significantly, with a decrease of about 52.20 - 55.60. The trading volume of IM next month was 135,094.00. The open interest of some contracts decreased, while the far - season and next - season contracts increased [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased compared to the previous values [1]. 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.07%, the SSE 50 index increased by 0.25%, the CSI 500 index decreased by 0.52%, and the CSI 1000 index decreased by 1.07%. Different industries in the CSI 300 index showed different trends, with industries such as energy rising and industries such as telecommunications business falling [1]. 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis of different futures contracts relative to the corresponding spot indexes changed compared to the previous two - day values [1]. 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.58%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index decreased by 0.42%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.68% [1]. - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.74%, the Nikkei 225 increased by 0.49%, the S&P 500 increased by 2.03%, and the DAX index increased by 0.47% [1]. 5. Macroeconomic Information - The 2025 version of the Market Access Negative List reduced the number of items from 117 in the 2022 version to 106, further relaxing market access restrictions. New business forms such as unmanned aerial vehicle operations and new - type tobacco products were included in the negative list [2]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs clarified that there were no ongoing Sino - US economic and trade negotiations [2]. - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng emphasized promoting cross - border trade facilitation [2]. - The central bank governor stated China's stance on opening - up, free trade, and maintaining global economic and financial stability [2]. - The Ministry of Commerce said China will continue to expand high - level opening - up and support foreign - invested enterprises [2]. 6. Industry Information - Seven ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an implementation plan for the digital and intelligent transformation of the pharmaceutical industry from 2025 - 2030 [2]. - In the first quarter, the cumulative telecom business revenue was 446.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.7%, and the telecom business volume increased by 7.7% at constant prices of the previous year [2]. - China is willing to resolve Sino - EU electric vehicle trade frictions through dialogue [2]. - In the first quarter, China's freight volume increased by 4.9% year - on - year, and transportation fixed - asset investment reached 675.2 billion yuan [2]. - Shanghai issued measures to cultivate the commercial space advanced manufacturing cluster, aiming for an industrial scale of 100 billion yuan by 2027 [2]. 7. Stock Index Views - The three major US indexes rose. In the previous trading session, the stock indexes were divided, with the beauty care sector leading the gain and the computer sector leading the decline. The total trading volume was 1.14 trillion yuan. The financing balance on April 23 increased by 2.026 billion yuan to 1.799789 trillion yuan [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The European container shipping line (EC) is operating weakly, with the 06 contract closing at 1358.4 points, a decline of 9.40%. Spot freight rates continue to be weak, and shipping companies' price cuts have intensified market pessimism about May and June freight rates. The 06 contract has basically followed the decline of spot freight rates and is now at a discount to the 04 contract [1]. - Under the influence of factors such as the regular recovery of cargo volume, the overflow of capacity from the US line, limited capacity control by shipping companies, and tariff policies, the central freight rate for large containers in early May has dropped below $2000. The market is pessimistic about May and June freight rates, but there are still expectations for the peak seasons in July and August. In the current weak reality, there is a lack of upward driving force, and caution is also exercised in terms of space [1]. - The current point of contention lies in the performance of the peak season. The market has become insensitive to shipping companies' price increases, and it is necessary to see the arrival of the inflection point of peak - season cargo volume. It is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend in the short term. Before the post - ponement of the peak - season point is falsified, the 06 - 08 reverse spread can continue to be monitored [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price | Contract | Latest Transaction Price (Points) | Latest Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume | Open Interest (Unilateral) | Long Positions (Top 20 Members) | Short Positions (Top 20 Members) | Net Long Positions (Top 20 Members) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2504 | 1439 | - 0.42 | 87 | 909 | 743 | 824 | - 81 | | EC2506 | 1358.4 | - 9.40 | 86705 | 44468 | 24379 | 25911 | - 1532 | | EC2508 | 1577 | - 6.93 | 34562 | 33302 | 21679 | 22592 | - 913 | | EC2510 | 1299.6 | - 3.88 | 10589 | 16862 | - | - | - | | EC2512 | 1465 | - 4.06 | 2667 | 4248 | - | - | - | | EC2602 | 1304 | - 3.43 | 1116 | 2806 | - | - | - | | Total | - | - | 135726 | 102595 | 46801 | 49327 | - 2526 | [1] Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes | Indicator | Latest Period | Month - on - Month Increase/Decrease | Previous Period | Month - on - Month Increase/Decrease | Two Periods Ago | Month - on - Month Increase/Decrease | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Index (Weekly) - SCFIS (Points) | 1508.44 | 7.6% | 1402.35 | - 1.4% | 1422.42 | - 3.5% | | SCFI ($/TEU) | 1316 | - 2.9% | 1356 | 1.5% | 1336 | 1.4% | | Spot Freight Rate (Daily) - TCI(20GP) ($/TEU) | 1441 | 0.0% | 1441 | - 1.1% | 1457 | - 1.3% | | Spot Freight Rate (Daily) - TCI(40GP) ($/FEU) | 2281 | - 1.4% | 2315 | - 1.9% | 2359 | - 1.3% | [1] Spot Market Data - Shipping Capacity and Related Information | Category | Details | Value | | --- | --- | --- | | Capacity - Asia - Europe Route Capacity Deployment (TEU) | - | 500628 | | Capacity - Increase in Asia - Europe Route Capacity Deployment (TEU) | - | 0 | | Capacity - Idle Capacity Ratio (%) | Global | 1.8 | | Capacity - Idle Capacity Ratio (%) | 17000TEU+ Container Ships | 0.9 | | Capacity - Idle Capacity Ratio (%) | 12000 - 16999TEU Container Ships | 0.6 | | Capacity - Idle Capacity Ratio (%) | 8000 - 11999TEU Container Ships | 1.5 | | Speed - Average Speed of Container Ships (Knots) | - | 13.98 | | Speed - Average Speed of 17000TEU+ Container Ships (Knots) | - | 15.4 | | Speed - Average Speed of 12000 - 16999TEU Container Ships (Knots) | - | 15.11 | | In - Port Capacity (10,000 TEU) | Rotterdam | 27.75 | | In - Port Capacity (10,000 TEU) | Hamburg Port | 11.73 | | In - Port Capacity (10,000 TEU) | Singapore | 35.78 | | Bypass Situation - Number of Ships Passing Through the Gulf of Aden (Vessels) | - | 7 | | Bypass Situation - North - bound Traffic Volume of the Suez Canal (Vessels) | - | 4 | | Bypass Situation - South - bound Traffic Volume of the Suez Canal (Vessels) | - | 2 | | Time - Charter Rates (6 - 12 months) - 9000TEU ($/day) | - | 106000 | | Time - Charter Rates (6 - 12 months) - 6500TEU ($/day) | - | 73500 | | Time - Charter Rates (6 - 12 months) - 2500TEU ($/day) | - | 33750 | [4]

| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/4/24 星期四 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 IF当月 | IF下月 | IF下季 | IF隔季 | | 前两日收盘价 3760.60 | 3733.00 | 3675.40 | 3652.00 | | 前日收盘价 3765.20 | 3734.00 | 3677.00 | 3652.20 | | 涨跌 -2.80 沪深300 | -6.00 | -5.20 | -8.40 | | 涨跌幅 -0.07 | -0.16 | -0.14 | -0.23 | | 成交量 24629.00 | 48170.00 | 8497.00 | 2833.00 | | 持仓量 ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2506 | TS2509 | TF2506 | TF2509 | T2506 | T2509 | TL2506 | TL2509 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.368 | 102.590 | 106.020 | 106.315 | 108.770 | 108.920 | 119.4 | 119.6 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.402 | 102.608 | 106.165 | 106.420 | 108.970 | 109.100 | 119.92 | 120.05 | | | 涨跌 | -0.034 | -0.018 | -0.145 | -0.105 | -0.200 | -0.180 | -0.520 | -0.450 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0.0 ...

20250424申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 林新杰（从业编号：F3032999 交易咨询号：Z0014722） linxj@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50586279 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪金2506 | 沪金2512 | 沪银2506 | 沪银2512 | | | | 现价 | 782.10 | 786.70 | 8347.00 | 8409.00 | | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 831.42 | 835.76 | 8174.00 | 8238.00 | | | 货 | | | | | | | | | 涨跌 | -49.32 | -49.06 | 173.00 | 171.00 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -5.93% | -5.87% | 2.12% | 2.08% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 204671 | 46497 | 339593 | 99907 | | | | 成交量 | 872580 | 42687 | 951417 | 29238 | | ...

| 集运欧线数据日报 | | | | | | | 2025/4/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 最新观点 | | | | | | 策略方向 | | | 集运欧线：EC反弹，06合约收于1509.1点，小幅上涨0.33%，主要受到美国总统特 | | | | | | | | | 朗普对于中美关税政策的态度缓和影响，市场风险偏好有所回升，现货运价方面 | | | | | | | | | 仍延续弱势。EMC再度调降5月1日起报价，大柜调降200美元至2060美元，CES航线 | | | | | | | | | 报价低于2000美元，OOCL调降wk18起报价，大柜多降至1900美元，部分航线降至 | | | | | | | | | 1721和1850美元。在货量常规性回升、美线运力外溢、船司控班力度有限再加上 | | | | | | | | | 关税政策等的扰动下，目前5月上旬大柜运价中枢降至2000美元之下，市场对于5 | | | | | | 震荡 | | | 月和6月旺季启动预期概率偏低。在旺季节点后移后，7月和8月的旺季预期仍存， ...

首席点评：关税政策摇摆，市场波动加大 特朗普称或将"大幅降低"对华关税，中国外交部：打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞 开。中国外交部发言人郭嘉昆强调，如果美方真的想通过对话谈判解决问题，就 应该停止威胁讹诈，在平等、尊重、互惠的基础上同中方对话。一边说要同中方 达成协议，一边不断搞极限施压，这不是同中方打交道的正确方式，也是行不通 的。美国 4 月 Markit 综合 PMI 超预期下降创 16 个月新低，信心挫、价格涨，制 造业 PMI 不降反升好于预期。数据表明，4 月美国商业活动增长降至 16 个月低 点，对未来一年商业前景的预期也下降至自疫情以来最低之一；商品和服务的销 售价格上涨幅度为一年多来最大，尤其是制造品价格大幅上涨，与关税有关。就 业指数低迷。 重点品种：原油、贵金属、橡胶 原油：SC 夜盘回落 2.25%。有消息援引哈萨克新任命的能源部长的话说，在决定 石油产量水平时，哈萨克斯坦将优先考虑国家利益，而非欧佩克及其减产同盟国 的利益。他还表示，该国未能减少三大产油项目的石油产量，因为这些项目为海 外巨头控制。路透社援引三位熟悉欧佩克及其减产同盟国会谈的消息人士的话说， 一些成员国将建议该集团在 6 ...

报告日期：2025 年 4 月 22 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：美股全线回落，特朗普呼吁降息 中共中央、国务院：推动货物贸易优化升级、支持有条件自贸区深化智能网联汽 车道路测试。意见提出，要打造高能级科技创新生态，促进创新链产业链融合， 扩大国际科技交流合作。要建设现代化产业体系，提升产业链现代化水平，推动 建设先进产业集群，促进自由贸易试验区产业协同联动。鼓励自由贸易试验区开 展全产业链集成创新。继上周四和周五炮轰鲍威尔后，特朗普本周一称，能源和 鸡蛋等食品成本下降，几乎没有通胀，但经济可能放缓，除非"太迟先生"、大 输家鲍威尔现在就降息。"新美联储通讯社"认为：特朗普呼吁降息旨在缓和贸 易战影响，这次关税规模更大、通胀可能比他第一个任期严重，美联储可能更难 取舍。 重点品种：铜，原油，贵金属 原油：SC 夜盘下跌 0.47%。欧佩克周三在网站上发布消息说，已收到伊拉克、哈 萨克斯坦和其他国家进一步减产的最新计划，以弥补以前超过配额的产量。据计 算，最新计划要求七个国家从现在到 2026 年 6 月期间，每月额外减少日产量 36.9 万桶。根据最新补偿计划，从本月到 2026 年 6 月，每月减产量 ...