| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | 2025/9/3 | 星期三 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | | | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | IF当月 | IF下月 | IF下季 | IF隔季 | | | | | | | | 前两日收盘价 | 4510.60 | 4503.00 | 4487.80 | 4466.20 | 前日收盘价 | 4481.20 | 4475.60 | 4461.20 | 4439.00 | | | 涨跌 | -32.60 | -31.40 | -30.80 | -30.00 | 沪深300 | 涨跌幅 | - ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Gold futures prices have strongly broken through, with London spot gold surpassing the $3,500 per ounce mark and COMEX gold futures hitting a new high. Multiple institutions predict that after a four - month consolidation, precious metals may start a new upward trend. Morgan Stanley has set the year - end target price of gold at $3,800 per ounce [1]. - In 2025, domestic liquidity remains loose, and it is in a policy window period. More incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year to boost the real economy. The external risks are gradually easing, and the probability of a Fed rate cut in September increases, enhancing the attractiveness of RMB assets. The current market is at the resonance of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", and the market trend is likely to continue [3][9][10]. 3. Summaries by Catalog a. Key Varieties - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are strengthening, and gold shows a convergent breakthrough. Trump's attempt to fire Fed governors and the USGS's proposal on silver import tariffs, along with dovish signals from the Fed and weak employment data, are positive for precious metals. However, inflation rebound, geopolitical risk reduction, and other factors limit the upside of gold. In the long - term, gold is still supported [2][18]. - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes declined. The previous trading day saw index differentiation, with small and medium - cap stocks correcting significantly. The domestic market has a high probability of continued market trends, but one needs to adapt to accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation. Different indexes have different characteristics in terms of risk and return [3][9][10]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, but the smelting output continues to grow. Multiple factors are intertwined, and the copper price may fluctuate within a range [3][19]. b. Main News on the Day - **International News**: Trump's government will request the Supreme Court to expedite the ruling on the global tariff case to overturn the federal court's decision that multiple tariffs are illegal. Market analysts believe that corporate bond issuance and budget concerns in developed countries are the main reasons for the stock market decline [4]. - **Domestic News**: China will expand the scope of visa - free countries, implementing a visa - free policy for Russian ordinary passport holders from September 15, 2025, to September 14, 2026 [5]. - **Industry News**: In August 2025, there were 2.65 million new A - share accounts, a year - on - year and month - on - month significant increase [6]. c. Daily Gains of Overseas Markets - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas market varieties on September 1 and 2, 2025, including the FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, etc. [7] d. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes declined, and the domestic market has a high probability of continued trends, with different indexes having different risk - return characteristics [9][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds fell slightly. The market funds are loosening, and the equity market is volatile. The stock - bond seesaw effect continues, and one should pay attention to the impact of the equity market on the bond market [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose at night. Geopolitical factors affect oil exports, and the OPEC and its allies will discuss production policies. One should follow up on OPEC's production increase [12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate and coal - to - olefin plant operating rate changed, and the coastal inventory is at a relatively high level. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term [13]. - **Other Energy and Chemical Products**: Rubber may continue to correct in the short term; polyolefin prices are generally weak; glass and soda ash futures are weak, and the market focuses on supply - side contraction and consumption in autumn [14][16][17]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are strengthening, with multiple factors influencing their trends, and the market focuses on this week's non - farm payroll data [18]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night, with multiple factors affecting it, and it may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Other Metals**: Zinc may fluctuate weakly within a range; the short - term trend of lithium carbonate is affected by emotions, and one should be cautious about short - selling; iron ore is expected to be bullish in the medium - term; the steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand; double - coking products are in a high - level oscillation state; protein meal is expected to fluctuate narrowly; oils and fats are expected to continue to oscillate; sugar and cotton are expected to maintain an oscillating trend; the container shipping European line may oscillate in the short term [20][22][23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The previous trading day saw a general decline in Treasury bond futures prices, with the T2512 contract down 0.04% and a decrease in open interest [2]. - The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each Treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2]. - Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends, with the SHIBOR 7 - day rate down 0.7bp, the DR007 rate down 0.43bp, and the GC007 rate down 1bp [2]. - Yields of key - term Treasury bonds in China showed mixed trends, with the 10Y Treasury bond yield rising 0.01bp to 1.83%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread at 36.2bp [2]. - In the overseas market, the 10Y US Treasury bond yield rose 5bp, the 10Y German Treasury bond yield rose 3bp, and the 10Y Japanese Treasury bond yield fell 1.8bp [2]. - Treasury bond futures prices have stabilized as market liquidity has eased and the equity market has fluctuated more. However, the stock - bond seesaw effect continues, and attention should be paid to the impact of equity market changes on bond market sentiment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume Data**: The prices of Treasury bond futures contracts such as TS2512, TS2603, TF2512, etc. declined, with decreases ranging from - 0.01% to - 0.20%. Open interest for some contracts decreased (e.g., T2512 decreased by 1747), while others increased (e.g., TS2603 increased by 193). Trading volumes varied among different contracts [2]. - **Spreads**: The inter - delivery spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts were 0.054, 0.100, 0.265, and 0.330 respectively, with some spreads changing compared to the previous values [2]. - **IRR**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR 7 - day, DR007, and GC007 rates decreased, while GC001 rate increased [2]. - **Chinese Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields of key - term Treasury bonds in China showed mixed trends. The 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 0.01bp to 1.83%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 36.2bp [2]. - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: In the overseas market, US and German Treasury bond yields generally rose, while Japanese Treasury bond yields fell. The 10Y US Treasury bond yield rose 5bp, the 10Y German Treasury bond yield rose 3bp, and the 10Y Japanese Treasury bond yield fell 1.8bp [2]. Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On September 2, the central bank conducted 255.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 150.1 billion yuan. In August, MLF had a net injection of 300 billion yuan, PSL had a net withdrawal of 160.8 billion yuan, and the open - market buy - out reverse repurchase had a net injection of 300 billion yuan [3]. - **Fiscal Policy**: The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced four tax - exemption measures to support the operation and management of state - owned equity and cash income transferred to the social security fund, which will directly increase the investment return rate of the social security fund [3]. - **Real Estate Policy**: The work of using local government special bond funds to acquire idle land has continued to advance. As of the end of August, the number of idle land parcels to be acquired was 4,574, with an area of over 2.3 billion square meters, and the total amount of land to be acquired was over 610 billion yuan, with an actual issuance of about 175.2 billion yuan [3]. - **Overseas News**: US President Trump announced an appeal to the US Supreme Court regarding the global tariff case. The US ISM manufacturing index in August was 48.7, lower than the market expectation of 49 [3]. Industry Information - **Money Market Interest Rates**: On September 2, most money market interest rates showed mixed trends. The weighted average interest rate of pledged repurchase in the inter - bank market for the 1 - day variety increased by 0.19BP, and the 7 - day variety decreased by 0.79BP [3]. - **US Treasury Bond Yields**: US Treasury bond yields generally rose. The 2 - year yield rose 1.85bp, the 3 - year yield rose 3.10bp, the 5 - year yield rose 2.77bp, the 10 - year yield rose 3.50bp, and the 30 - year yield rose 3.70bp [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The prices of gold and silver are showing strong upward trends. Trump's attempt to dismiss a Federal Reserve governor and challenge the Fed's independence has made the market uneasy. The USGS's proposal to include silver in the 2025 critical minerals list has raised concerns about silver import tariff risks. Powell's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole meeting and the disappointing July non - farm payrolls data have increased the expectation of a September interest rate cut, which is beneficial to precious metals. However, the split within the Fed, the rebound of US inflation data in July, and the easing of geopolitical risks have restricted the upward space of gold to some extent. The overall trade environment has deteriorated, and the long - term drivers of gold still have support. Currently, gold and silver may show a relatively strong trend as the interest rate cut approaches and due to Trump's interference in the Fed's independence, and the market is focusing on this week's non - farm payrolls data [4] Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 801.58 and 803.38 respectively, with price increases of 1.02 and 1.18, and price increase rates of 0.13% and 0.15%. The current prices of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 9836.00 and 9855.00 respectively, with price increases of 61.00 and 57.00, and price increase rates of 0.62% and 0.58% [2] - **Position and Volume**: The positions and trading volumes of沪金2510 are 140,691 and 313,792, and those of沪金2512 are 178,201 and 132,324. The positions and trading volumes of沪银2510 are 294,815 and 884,674, and those of沪银2512 are 322,354 and 301,127 [2] - **Spot Premium**: The spot premiums of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are - 7.10 and - 8.90, and those of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are - 84.00 and - 103.00 [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The price of Shanghai Gold T + D is 794.48, with a price increase of 12.78 and a price increase rate of 1.63%. The price of London gold is 797.53, with a price increase of 7.36 and a price increase rate of 0.93%. The price of London silver is 40.67, with a price increase of 0.98 and a price increase rate of 2.48%. The price of Shanghai Silver T + D is 9752.00, with a price increase of 387.00 and a price increase rate of 4.13% [2] - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between沪金2512 and沪金2510 is 1.80 (previous value: 1.64), the price spread between沪银2512 and沪银2510 is 19 (previous value: 23), the gold - to - silver ratio (spot) is 81.47 (previous value: 83.47), the ratio of Shanghai gold to London gold is 7.11 (previous value: 7.05), and the ratio of Shanghai silver to London silver is 7.46 (previous value: 7.34) [2] Inventory - **Changes**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold increased by 120 kg to 39,744 kg, the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver increased by 11,231 kg to 1,207,227 kg, the COMEX gold inventory increased by 161,216.26 ounces to 38,925,853 ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory increased by 1,037,585 ounces to 518,232,360 ounces [2] Related Market Indicators - **Changes**: The US dollar index decreased by 0.19% to 97.6793, the S&P index decreased by 0.64% to 6460.26, the US Treasury yield increased by 0.24% to 4.23, the Brent crude oil price increased by 0.01% to 68.16, and the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate increased by 0.02% to 7.1221 [2] Derivatives - **Changes**: The position of the SPDR Gold ETF increased by 1 ton to 44,315 tons, the position of the SLV Silver ETF increased by 1 ton to 44,315 tons, the net position of CFTC speculators in silver increased by 481 to 33,486, and the net position of CFTC speculators in gold decreased by 1451 to 32,895 [2] Macroeconomic News - **US News**: US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that Trump may declare a national housing emergency this fall. The nominee for the Fed governor, Milan, is likely to take office before the September Fed meeting [3] - **European News**: ECB President Lagarde said that the 2% inflation target has been achieved. The acting governor of the Slovenian central bank said that the ECB's "easing cycle has ended". The final value of the euro - zone manufacturing PMI in August rose to a three - year high of 50.7, and the euro - zone unemployment rate in July dropped to 6.2%, tying the historical low set in November 2024 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Market Overview**: The A - share market showed a strong oscillation on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.46% to 3875.53 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.05%, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.29%. The trading volume in the market was 2.78 trillion yuan. The non - ferrous industry strengthened across the board, and gold stocks soared. The CPO giants led the AI hardware segment to strengthen again, while the satellite Internet concept weakened and the large - finance sector declined generally [1]. - **Key Products Analysis** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver showed a strong upward trend. Factors such as Trump's attempt to interfere with the Fed, the proposed inclusion of silver in the key minerals list, and the increased expectation of a September interest rate cut were positive for precious metals. However, factors like the rebound of US inflation data and the easing of geopolitical risks restricted the upward space of gold. In the long - term, the continuous increase of gold reserves by the People's Bank of China provided support for gold [2]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index rose in the previous trading session, with the communication sector leading the gain and the non - bank financial sector leading the decline. The trading volume was 2.78 trillion yuan. In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, and more incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year. The probability of a Fed interest rate cut in September increases the attractiveness of RMB assets. The market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but sector rotation is accelerating [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment and has high volatility. The supply is increasing, and the demand for lithium in cathode materials is also rising. The inventory situation is complex, with upstream de - stocking and downstream restocking. There is a risk of correction after the previous rapid increase, but if the inventory starts to decline, the lithium price may rise [4]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Daily Main News Concerns - **International News**: Fed理事提名人米兰很可能在9月美联储会议前就职，几位美联储主席人选也有望担任理事 [6]. - **Domestic News**: President Xi Jinping stated at the "Shanghai Cooperation Organization +" meeting that China is willing to jointly build an AI application cooperation center with all parties to share the dividends of AI development [7]. - **Industry News**: In the first half of this year, the total net profit attributable to the parent company of A - share listed companies was 2.99 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.45%. Nearly 77% of the stocks achieved profitability, and the proportion of stocks with a year - on - year positive growth in net profit attributable to the parent company was nearly 46%. Wanchen Group had a 504 - fold increase in performance in the first half of the year [8]. b. Overseas Market Daily Returns | Variety | Unit | 8/31 | 9/1 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FTSE China A50 Futures | Points | 14,965.58 | 14,904.15 | - 61.43 | - 0.41% | | London Gold Spot | US dollars/ounce | 3,447.57 | 3,478.96 | 31.39 | 0.91% | | London Silver | US dollars/ounce | 39.67 | 40.65 | 0.98 | 2.47% | [9] c. Morning Comments on Major Products - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index rose in the previous trading session, with the communication sector leading the gain and the non - bank financial sector leading the decline. The trading volume was 2.78 trillion yuan. The market is in a favorable situation, but sector rotation needs attention [3][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly, with the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond falling to 1.77%. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 1057 billion yuan. The Fed's possible interest rate cut and the domestic economic situation affect the bond market, and the stock - bond seesaw effect continues [11][12]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 1.1% at night. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine affect oil exports, and OPEC and its allies will discuss production policies. The market is concerned about OPEC's production increase [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 0.68% at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory in coastal areas increased. The short - term trend is mainly bullish [14]. - **Rubber**: Rubber had a narrow - range oscillation on Monday. The price is mainly supported by the supply side, but the demand side is weak. The short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded after hitting the bottom. The spot market is mainly affected by supply and demand, and the inventory is slowly being digested. It remains to be seen whether the futures can drive the spot price to stop falling [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures mainly declined, and soda ash futures continued to be weak. Both are in a process of inventory digestion, and the market focuses on supply - side contraction and future consumption [17]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are strongly bullish. Multiple factors affect the price, and the market focuses on this week's non - farm payrolls data [2][18]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the downstream demand has both positive and negative factors. The price may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee has increased, and the supply - demand situation may turn to surplus. The price may fluctuate weakly within a range [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment. The supply is increasing, and the demand is also rising. There is a risk of correction, but if the inventory decreases, the price may rise [4][21]. - **Black Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by steel mills' production. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the inventory is being depleted. The market expects an increase in shipments in the second half of the year. The price is expected to be volatile and bullish [23]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, and the inventory is accumulating. The export situation is complex, and the market has a weak supply - demand balance. The short - term trend is a correction [24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke are in a high - level oscillation. The high - level iron - water production boosts the demand, but factors such as inventory changes and price cut expectations put pressure on the prices [25]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meals**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meals oscillated and rose at night. The US soybean production outlook is optimistic, but the decrease in planting area and strong bio - fuel demand provide support. The domestic market is expected to oscillate narrowly [26]. - **Oils and Fats**: The prices of oils and fats oscillated at night. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased slightly in August, and the export increased. The market is expected to continue to oscillate [27]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is entering a stock - building stage, and the domestic market is affected by supply and demand factors. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [28]. - **Cotton**: The price of US cotton decreased. The domestic cotton supply is relatively tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish [29]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index rebounded, rising 1.53%. The market is mainly gambling on the off - season freight rate space. The price may be weakly volatile in September and may be supported at the end of September and early October [30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Polyolefin futures rebounded from the bottom and closed with a lower shadow yesterday. The spot market for linear LL was stable for Sinopec and partially stable for PetroChina, while the spot market for拉丝PP saw some price cuts of 50 yuan by Sinopec and stability from PetroChina. The market enthusiasm has cooled, and the polyolefin spot market is mainly driven by supply - demand factors. Summer maintenance is in balance, and inventory is being slowly digested. The overall spot price of polyolefins is weak at the beginning of the month. Whether the stop - fall of the futures market can drive the spot market to stop falling remains to be seen [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7270 yuan, 7276 yuan, and 7204 yuan respectively, with price drops of - 17 yuan, - 23 yuan, and - 26 yuan and declines of - 0.23%, - 0.32%, and - 0.36% compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 324382, 11181, and 5021, and the open interests were 468822, 29742, and 9200, with changes of + 28457, + 294, and - 3708 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 6, 72, and - 66, compared to previous values of - 12, 69, and - 57 [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6965 yuan, 6982 yuan, and 6871 yuan respectively, with price drops of - 9 yuan, - 13 yuan, and - 11 yuan and declines of - 0.13%, - 0.19%, and - 0.16% compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 294958, 8448, and 1912, and the open interests were 558606, 43187, and 6477, with changes of + 30363, + 1920, and - 680 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 17, 111, and - 94, compared to previous values of - 21, 113, and - 92 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and plastic film were 2387 yuan/ton, 6605 yuan/ton, 575 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous values of 2364 yuan/ton, 6575 yuan/ton, 574 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6800 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Mid - stream Spot Market**: For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7200 - 7700 yuan, 7150 - 7450 yuan, and 7400 - 7750 yuan respectively, compared to previous ranges of 7300 - 7700 yuan, 7200 - 7450 yuan, and 7400 - 7750 yuan. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6800 - 7000 yuan, 6800 - 7000 yuan, and 6800 - 7050 yuan respectively, compared to previous ranges of 6850 - 7000 yuan, 6800 - 7000 yuan, and 6800 - 7050 yuan [2]. News - On Monday (September 1st), the trading range of the WTI crude oil futures contract for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.66 - $64.88 per barrel. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures contract for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $68.15 per barrel, up $0.67 or 0.99% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $67.12 - $68.36 [2].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range due to the combination of tight concentrate supply, high smelting output growth, and mixed downstream demand [2]. - Zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range weak fluctuations as the supply - demand balance may tilt towards surplus, with rising smelting output and mixed downstream demand [2]. Summary by Related Content Copper - The night - session copper price closed lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Power industry shows positive growth, PV installation has a sharp year - on - year increase but future growth may slow. Automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 79,770 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of 220 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 9,884 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 86.27 dollars/ton, and the LME inventory is 158,900 tons with a daily increase of 950 tons [2]. Zinc - The night - session zinc price closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, turning smelting profits positive, and smelting output is expected to continue rising. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 22,150 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 85 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 2,833 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is 14.98 dollars/ton, and the LME inventory is 56,500 tons with a daily decrease of 1,500 tons [2]. Other Metals - **Aluminum**: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 20,660 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 30 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 2,620 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is 4.72 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 481,050 tons with a daily decrease of 100 tons [2]. - **Nickel**: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 123,220 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 2,140 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 15,439 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 183.35 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 209,544 tons with a daily decrease of 132 tons [2]. - **Lead**: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 16,810 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 140 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 2,004 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 42.47 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 261,050 tons with a daily decrease of 1,450 tons [2]. - **Tin**: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 272,900 yuan/ton, domestic basis is 640 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 35,060 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is 148.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 2,010 tons with a daily increase of 115 tons [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, SC rose 0.21% on Friday night. Concerns about supply disruptions due to geopolitical factors and potential interest - rate cuts may boost oil demand. US crude and product inventories decreased last week, and subsequent attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3]. - For methanol, it fell 0.89% on Friday night. The domestic methanol overall plant operating rate decreased slightly, while the coal - to - olefins plant operating rate increased. Coastal methanol inventory is at a high level but the accumulation rate has slowed, and methanol is short - term bullish [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Crude Oil - Price changes: SC near - month rose 0.85% (4.0 yuan), SC next - month rose 0.73% (3.5 yuan), WTI near - month rose 0.72% (0.46 dollars), WTI next - month rose 0.69% (0.44 dollars), Brent near - month fell 0.22% (- 0.15 dollars), Brent next - month fell 0.28% (- 0.19 dollars) [2]. - Volume and open interest: SC near - month volume was 98,327, open interest was 31,938 with a decrease of 3904; SC next - month volume was 193,074, open interest was 294,186 with a decrease of 10952; WTI near - month volume was 106,713, open interest was 199,459 with an increase of 1571; WTI next - month volume was 105,363, open interest was 159,322 with a decrease of 49565; Brent near - month volume was 330,931, open interest was 607,763 with an increase of 19824 [2]. - Spreads: SC near - month - SC next - month spread was - 8.2 yuan (previous - 8.7 yuan), SC near - month - WTI near - month spread was 18.9 yuan (previous 18.2 yuan), SC near - month - Brent near - month spread was - 8.2 yuan (previous - 13.2 yuan), WTI near - month - WTI next - month spread was 3.92 dollars (previous 3.78 dollars), Brent near - month - Brent next - month spread was 0.66 dollars (previous 0.62 dollars) [2]. Methanol - Price changes: 01 contract fell 0.51% (- 12.0 yuan), 05 contract fell 0.46% (- 11.0 yuan), 09 contract fell 0.94% (- 21.0 yuan) [2]. - Volume and open interest: 01 contract volume was 419,697, open interest was 821,019 with an increase of 35186; 05 contract volume was 16,487, open interest was 95,958 with an increase of 3509; 09 contract volume was 26,306, open interest was 12,902 with a decrease of 16307 [2]. Spot Market Crude Oil - International market: OPEC basket crude price was 69.65 dollars (previous 69.75 dollars), Brent DTD was 67.51 dollars (previous 67.38 dollars), Russian ESPD was 64.60 dollars (previous 64.15 dollars), Oman was 69.81 dollars (previous 69.43 dollars), Dubai was 69.98 dollars (previous 69.45 dollars), Cinta was 65.46 dollars (previous 65.20 dollars) [2]. - Domestic market: Daqing was 64.90 dollars (previous 64.71 dollars), Shengli was 65.11 dollars (previous 65.10 dollars), China gasoline wholesale price index was 7,919 yuan/ton (previous 7,929 yuan/ton), China diesel wholesale price index was 6,811 yuan/ton (previous 6,820 yuan/ton), FOB naphtha (Singapore) was 63.75 dollars (previous 63.31 dollars), aviation kerosene ex - factory price was 5,605 yuan/ton (previous 5,676 yuan/ton) [2]. Methanol - Port price was 257 dollars, East China was 2245 yuan, North China was 2220 yuan, South China was 2247 yuan, with price decreases in all regions [2]. Comment and Strategy Crude Oil - Geopolitical factors such as India - US tariff issues and Russia - Ukraine attacks on energy infrastructure have raised supply concerns. Interest - rate cut expectations may stimulate oil demand. US crude and product inventories decreased last week, and OPEC's production increase situation should be monitored [3]. Methanol - As of August 28, the domestic methanol overall plant operating rate was 72.19% (down 0.82 percentage points month - on - month but up 0.81 percentage points year - on - year), and the coal - to - olefins plant operating rate was 82.24% (up 0.83 percentage points month - on - month). Coastal methanol inventory was 129.95 tons (up 5.1 tons from August 21, a 4.08% increase and 19.71% higher year - on - year), and the estimated import volume from August 29 to September 14 is 94.05 - 95 tons. Methanol is short - term bullish [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range due to the combination of factors such as tight concentrate supply, high smelting output growth, and mixed downstream demand [2]. - Zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range weak fluctuations as short - term supply - demand differences may tilt towards surplus [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices closed higher. Concentrate supply remains tight, smelting profits are under pressure, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Downstream demand shows mixed trends: power industry has positive growth, photovoltaic rush - installation increased year - on - year but future growth may slow, automobile production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 79,440 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 185 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 9,902 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 80.26 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 157,950 tons with a daily increase of 1,850 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, automobile production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 22,130 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 55 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 2,814 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 6.12 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 58,000 tons with a daily decrease of 2,025 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 20,765 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 30 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 2,619 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 2.98 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 481,150 tons with a daily decrease of 100 tons [2]. - Nickel: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 121,450 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 1,590 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 15,421 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 174.22 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 209,676 tons with a daily increase of 456 tons [2]. - Lead: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 16,840 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 150 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 1,991 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 41.07 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 262,500 tons with a daily decrease of 4,975 tons [2]. - Tin: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 278,300 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 1,530 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 34,950 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 175.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 1,895 tons with a daily decrease of 30 tons [2].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - On Friday, polyolefins mainly declined. The spot market of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Currently, from a fundamental perspective, market enthusiasm has cooled, and the polyolefin spot market is still mainly driven by supply and demand. Summer maintenance is in balance, and inventory is being slowly digested. Terminal stocking demand may gradually pick up in mid - to late August. International crude oil prices have fluctuated at low levels recently, which also has a certain impact on the short - term trend of chemicals. In the future, attention should be paid to the rhythm of the autumn stocking market after supply - demand digestion, the rhythm of spot production scheduling and maintenance, especially the short - term repair rhythm on the supply side. [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - **Prices**: For linear LL futures, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7287, 7299, and 7230 respectively, with price drops of - 71, - 63, and - 84 and declines of - 0.96%, - 0.86%, and - 1.15% compared to two days ago. For拉丝PP futures, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6974, 6995, and 6882 respectively, with price drops of - 46, - 38, and - 55 and declines of - 0.66%, - 0.54%, and - 0.79% compared to two days ago. [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of linear LL futures for January, May, and September contracts were 282715, 6342, and 12925 respectively, and the open interests were 440365, 29448, and 12908 respectively, with changes of 26798, 2196, and - 10361. The trading volumes of拉丝PP futures for January, May, and September contracts were 217926, 4683, and 9349 respectively, and the open interests were 528243, 41267, and 7157 respectively, with changes of 31778, 1008, and - 6409. [2] - **Spreads**: For linear LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 12, 69, and - 57 respectively, compared to previous values of - 4, 48, and - 44. For拉丝PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 21, 113, and - 92 respectively, compared to previous values of - 13, 96, and - 83. [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2365 yuan/ton, 6575 yuan/ton, 574 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6800 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, with previous values of 2376 yuan/ton, 6550 yuan/ton, 571 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6820 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton. [2] - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of linear LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7300 - 7700, 7200 - 7450, and 7400 - 7750 respectively, and the previous price ranges were 7300 - 7700, 7250 - 7450 (also 8100 - 8250 in North China), and 7400 - 7800. The current price ranges of拉丝PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6850 - 7000, 6800 - 7000, and 6800 - 7050 respectively, and the previous price ranges were 6900 - 7050, 6900 - 7000, and 6850 - 7100. [2] News - On Friday (August 29), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $64.01 per barrel, down $0.59 or 0.91% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.88 - $64.55. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $68.12 per barrel, down $0.50 or 0.73% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $67.9 - $68.39. [2]