Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range due to the low concentrate processing fees, low copper prices testing smelting output, and a mix of positive and negative factors in downstream demand. Key factors to watch include US tariff progress, the US dollar, copper smelting, and household appliance production [2]. - Zinc prices may experience wide - range short - term fluctuations. With the continuous recovery of concentrate processing fees and expected improvement in concentrate supply this year, the market anticipates a possible resumption of smelting supply. Key factors to monitor are similar to those for copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Copper - Night - time copper prices closed lower. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with power industry showing positive growth, auto production and sales growing, household appliance output growth slowing, and the real estate sector remaining weak. Given these factors, copper prices may fluctuate within a range [2]. Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed lower. Concentrate processing fees have been rising. Domestic auto production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, household appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. The market expects an improvement in concentrate supply this year and a possible resumption of smelting supply, leading to potential wide - range short - term price fluctuations [2]. Market Data | Metal | Domestic Previous Futures Closing Price (Yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (Yuan/ton) | Previous LME 3 - Month Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium/Discount (CASH - 3M, USD/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 78,450 | - 55 | 9,644 | - 62.07 | 108,725 | 625 | | Aluminum | 20,485 | - 80 | 2,597 | - 3.40 | 400,275 | 4,550 | | Zinc | 22,180 | - 15 | 2,733 | - 5.61 | 105,250 | - 350 | | Nickel | 121,700 | - 430 | 15,065 | - 214.82 | 206,178 | 1,440 | | Lead | 17,030 | - 230 | 2,005 | - 32.78 | 249,375 | - 3,000 | | Tin | 266,850 | 130 | 33,560 | - 109.00 | 1,970 | - 45 | [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Report Core View - Polyolefins are trading in a consolidating manner. The consumption of polyolefins has entered a relative off - season, and the spot prices are generally mediocre. The price fluctuations of the futures market follow costs and market sentiment. With the cooling of the Middle East conflict and the decline of international oil prices, the cost support has weakened, and polyolefins are gradually consolidating to digest selling pressure. Attention should be paid to the supply contraction effect during the summer equipment maintenance [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - For Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LL), the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7288, 7258, and 7284 respectively, with price changes of 10, 16, and - 7, and price change rates of 0.14%, 0.22%, and - 0.10%. The trading volumes were 58745, 525, and 307887, and the open interests were 116541, 2367, and 421336, with changes of 2138, 301, and - 11185 [2]. - For Polypropylene (PP), the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7067, 7060, and 7067 respectively, with price changes of 13, 23, and - 2, and price change rates of 0.18%, 0.33%, and - 0.03%. The trading volumes were 30531, 454, and 229429, and the open interests were 106189, 4816, and 391848, with changes of 48, 320, and - 2340 [2]. - The current spreads for LL (January - May, May - September, September - January) are 30, - 26, - 4, and for PP are 7, - 7, 0 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - In the raw materials market, the current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film are 2400 yuan/ton, 6335 yuan/ton, 567 US dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6880 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - In the spot market, the current price ranges for LL in East China, North China, and South China are 7200 - 7650 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7350 - 7550 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the price ranges in East China, North China, and South China are 7000 - 7150 yuan/ton, 7000 - 7100 yuan/ton, and 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton respectively [2]. News and Evaluation - On July 14, 2025, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for August 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was 66.98 US dollars per barrel, down 1.47 US dollars or 2.15% from the previous trading day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was 69.21 US dollars per barrel, down 1.15 US dollars or 1.63% from the previous trading day [2].

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2509 | TS2512 | TF2509 | TF2512 | T2509 | T2512 | TL2509 | TL2512 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.380 | 102.468 | 105.920 | 106.005 | 108.730 | 108.775 | 120.29 | 120.12 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.416 | 102.518 | 105.995 | 106.095 | 108.830 | 108.885 | 120.61 | 120.44 | | | 涨跌 | -0.036 | -0.050 | -0.075 | -0.090 | -0.100 | -0.110 | -0.320 | -0.320 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - A-shares have a high investment cost - performance ratio in the medium - to - long term. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more supported by science and technology innovation policies and may bring higher returns due to their high growth. SSE 50 and CSI 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment. Entering July, overseas uncertainties increase, and tariff negotiations may become a short - term focus in the capital market [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - For IF contracts, the previous two - day closing prices for IF current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter were 3997.20, 3979.20, 3972.00, and 3941.60 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 4014.60, 4000.00, 3993.40, and 3965.60 respectively, with increases of 7.80, 10.20, 11.60, and 17.20. The trading volumes were 53455.00, 8979.00, 84781.00, and 16296.00 respectively, and the open interests were 62423.00, 13332.00, 158393.00, and 48480.00 respectively, with changes of 2133.00, 4184.00, 14069.00, and 4222.00 [1] - Similar data are provided for IH, IC, and IM contracts. For example, for IC contracts, the previous two - day closing prices for current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter were 5958.80, 5904.40, 5854.20, and 5731.20 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 6023.00, 5973.40, 5920.40, and 5794.00 respectively, with increases of 55.00, 62.20, 60.60, and 57.80 [1] - The spread between IF next month and IF current month was - 14.60 (previous value - 18.00), and similar spread data are provided for IH, IC, and IM [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - For the CSI 300 index, the previous value of the index points was 4014.81, the trading volume was 262.05 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 4437.81 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 0.12. Similar data are provided for SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 [1] - Different industries in the CSI 300 index had different growth rates. For example, the energy industry had a growth rate of - 1.32%, and the raw materials industry had a growth rate of 0.87% [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis between IF current month and CSI 300 was - 0.21 (previous two - day value - 12.82), and similar basis data are provided for other contracts and corresponding spot indices [1] 4. Other Domestic Main Indexes and Overseas Indexes - For domestic main indexes, the Shanghai Composite Index had a previous value of 3510.18, with a growth rate of 0.01%. The Shenzhen Component Index had a previous value of 10696.10, with a growth rate of 0.61% [1] - For overseas indexes, the Hang Seng Index had a previous value of 24139.57, with a growth rate of 0.46%. The Nikkei 225 had a previous value of 39569.68, with a growth rate of - 0.19% [1] 5. Macro Information - The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued the "Self - Regulatory Guidelines for Science and Technology Innovation Board Listed Companies No. 5 - Science and Technology Innovation Growth Layer", with no additional listing thresholds for unprofitable enterprises and no new investment thresholds for individual investors [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued the "Guidelines for the Application of Issuance and Listing Review Rules No. 7 - Pre - review", allowing eligible enterprises to apply for pre - review of their application documents before formally applying for IPO on the Science and Technology Innovation Board [2] 6. Industry Information - The rent of Beijing's representative financial street in the office market fell below 400 yuan/square meter/month in the second quarter, and new industries are expected to boost demand [2] - The price of polysilicon rose by more than 16% last week, and the market expects accelerated supply - side reform in resource industries [2] - Multiple regions issued risk warnings against stable - coin concepts [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - Polyolefins declined. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP remained stable from Sinopec and PetroChina. Fundamentally, polyolefin consumption entered a relative off - season with average spot prices. Futures prices mainly followed costs and market sentiment. With the cooling of the Middle - East conflict and the decline of international oil prices, cost support weakened. Polyolefins are gradually consolidating horizontally to digest selling pressure. Future focus is on the supply contraction effect during summer plant maintenance [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price Changes**: For LL, the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month futures prices decreased by 34, 37, and 38 yuan respectively, with declines of - 0.46%, - 0.51%, and - 0.52%. For PP, the corresponding prices decreased by 35, 43, and 43 yuan, with declines of - 0.49%, - 0.61%, and - 0.60% [2] - **Trading Volume**: LL had trading volumes of 50879, 393, and 274059 for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month futures. PP had trading volumes of 31987, 671, and 241668 [2] - **Open Interest**: LL's open interest was 114403, 2066, and 432521 for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month futures, with changes of 1978, 186, and - 6302. PP's open interest was 106141, 4496, and 394188, with changes of - 2679, 263, and - 2015 [2] - **Price Spreads**: For LL, the 1 - month to 5 - month, 5 - month to 9 - month, and 9 - month to 1 - month spreads were 36, - 49, and 13 (previous values: 33, - 50, 17). For PP, the spreads were 17, - 32, and 15 (previous values: 9, - 32, 23) [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: Methanol futures decreased from 2400 to 2373 yuan/ton, Shandong propylene decreased from 6415 to 6400 yuan/ton, and South China propane decreased from 577 to 567 dollars/ton. PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film prices remained unchanged [2] - **Mid - stream Spot**: For LL, the price ranges in East, North, and South China markets were 7200 - 7650, 7150 - 7400, and 7350 - 7550 yuan/ton. For PP, the price ranges were 7050 - 7150, 7000 - 7100, and 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton [2] Market News - On July 11, 2025, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for August 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $68.45 per barrel, up $1.88 or 2.82% from the previous trading day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $70.36 per barrel, up $1.72 or 2.51% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The prices of treasury bond futures fluctuated, with the T2509 contract down 0.01%. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates were mixed, and the yields of key - term treasury bonds generally increased. Overseas, the yields of US, German, and Japanese treasury bonds also rose. The external environment became more complex, with increased global economic uncertainty due to the "reciprocal tariff" policy. The domestic market had insufficient effective demand, and the prices of treasury bond futures fluctuated more due to the enhanced expectation of real - estate stabilization policies [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The prices of treasury bond futures on the previous trading day were mixed. For example, the T2509 contract fell 0.01%, and the trading volume and open interest of each contract changed. The open interest of TS2509 decreased by 418, while that of TS2512 increased by 231 [2] - **Arbitrage**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - **Domestic Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of key - term domestic treasury bonds generally increased. The 10Y treasury bond yield rose 0.47bp to 1.66%, and the spread between long - and short - term (10 - 2) treasury bonds was 23.61bp [2] - **Overseas Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of overseas key - term treasury bonds increased. The US 10Y treasury bond yield rose 8bp, the German 10Y treasury bond yield rose 6bp, and the Japanese 10Y treasury bond yield rose 0.9bp [2] Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On July 11, the central bank conducted 847 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 507 billion yuan. There will be 4257 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 1000 billion yuan of MLF maturing this week [3] - **Diplomatic Meetings**: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with US Secretary of State Rubio in Kuala Lumpur, and both sides agreed to strengthen communication and dialogue [3] - **Policy Regulations**: The Ministry of Finance required state - owned commercial insurance companies to improve asset - liability management and adjusted the assessment methods of some indicators [3] - **Economic Data**: In the second quarter, high - frequency data in multiple domestic fields improved. The offline consumption heat index increased by 25.5% year - on - year, and the online retail sales of major home appliances rose by 28.0% [3] - **International Trade**: US President Trump announced tariffs on products from Mexico, the EU, and Canada, increasing market concerns about inflation and trade tensions [3] - **Japanese Central Bank Action**: The Bank of Japan launched a "morning quote" for spot transactions, lending Japanese government bonds to support market liquidity [3] Industry Information - **Interest Rate Changes**: On July 11, most money - market interest rates in China increased. US Treasury yields rose across the board, driven by Trump's tariff announcements [3] Comments and Strategies - **Market Situation**: The central bank's open - market operations shifted from net withdrawal to net injection last week. Shibor remained low, and the domestic money market was relatively stable. Overseas, tariff announcements increased concerns about inflation and trade tensions. The domestic economy was generally expanding in June, but market demand was weak, and commodity prices were affected by policies [3] - **Market Outlook**: The external environment became more complex, with increased global economic uncertainty. The domestic market had insufficient effective demand, and the central bank maintained a supportive monetary policy. The "anti - involution" market trend continued, increasing the expectation of real - estate stabilization policies and causing greater fluctuations in treasury bond futures prices [3]

报告日期：2025 年 7 月 14 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评："反内卷"长期利好商品价格 今年上半年，我国汽车产销量首次双超 1500 万辆，同比均实现两位数增长。得 益于持续整治"内卷式"竞争，车企生产节奏稳定，压库存状况得到改善，产业 活力持续释放。竞争固然是市场经济的常态，但打价格战、搞"内卷式"竞争， 只会助长"劣币驱逐良币"。单纯向下"卷"价格，最终没有赢家。只有依靠技 术创新、产业升级练好"内功"，才能赢得未来。 重点品种：玻璃、钢材、股指 玻璃纯碱：玻璃期货大幅反弹。基本面，夏季检修行情逐步深化，供给收缩，市 场预期好转。上周玻璃小幅库存消化，市场聚焦供给端收缩带来的进一步成效。 数据方面，本周玻璃生产企业库存 5734 万重箱，环比下降 97 万重箱。纯碱期货 大幅反弹。数据层面，本周纯碱生产企业库存 186.4 万吨，环比增加 3.3 万吨。 综合而言，国内，玻璃纯碱都处于库存承压消化的周期，由于生产利润不佳，目 前的去库进程需要时间。不过，随着国内消费需求的提振，继续关注玻璃纯碱自 身的供需消化过程。目前供给调整仍在深化，关注以时间换存量消化的成效。纯 碱而言，总体供给仍有一些变 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations due to the low concentrate processing fees, low copper prices testing smelting output, and a mix of positive and negative factors in downstream demand. Factors such as US tariff progress, the US dollar, copper smelting, and household appliance production should be monitored [2]. - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range fluctuations. With the continuous recovery of concentrate processing fees and expected improvement in concentrate supply and smelting supply, along with a mixed situation in downstream demand, factors like US tariff progress, the US dollar, zinc smelting, and household appliance production need attention [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Metal Price Performance - **Copper**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 78,570 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 9,663 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 21.57 dollars/ton, the LME inventory daily change was 108,100 tons, and the domestic basis was 975 yuan/ton [2]. - **Zinc**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,335 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,738 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 0.36 dollars/ton, the LME inventory daily change was 105,600 tons, and the domestic basis was - 1,100 yuan/ton [2]. - **Aluminum**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,835 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,602 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 1.23 dollars/ton, the LME inventory daily change was 395,725 tons, and the domestic basis was 4,925 yuan/ton [2]. - **Nickel**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 121,300 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,235 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 202.24 dollars/ton, the LME inventory daily change was 204,738 tons, and the domestic basis was 1,176 yuan/ton [2]. - **Lead**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,045 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,017 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 33.62 dollars/ton, the LME inventory daily change was 252,375 tons, and the domestic basis was - 2,725 yuan/ton [2]. - **Tin**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 263,730 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 33,565 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 15.21 dollars/ton, the LME inventory daily change was 2,015 tons, and the domestic basis was - 45 yuan/ton [2]. Market Analysis - **Copper Market**: Currently, the overall low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices are testing smelting output. Downstream demand in China is generally stable and improving, with positive growth in the power industry, positive growth in automobile production and sales, a slowdown in household appliance production growth, and continuous weakness in the real estate market [2]. - **Zinc Market**: Recently, the concentrate processing fees have been continuously rising. The market expects a significant improvement in concentrate supply this year, and smelting supply may recover. In China, automobile production and sales are growing positively, infrastructure is growing steadily, household appliance production growth is slowing down, and the real estate market remains weak [2].

| | 20250707申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期区间波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 可能窄幅震荡为主 | | | | 镍： 可能短期内震荡 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收平。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 | | | 铜 | 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增 长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织， | 可能短期区 | | | 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | 间波动 | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收跌。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。市 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波 | 幅波动 | | | 动，关注美国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产量等因素变化。 | | | | 铝：夜盘沪 ...

报告日期：2025 年 7 月 7 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：美国设定新单边关税税率 据央视新闻，当地时间 7 月 4 日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国政府将从当天起 开始致函贸易伙伴，设定新的单边关税税率。特朗普称，新关税"十有八九" 从 8 月 1 日开始生效。对于将设定的新关税，特朗普说，"关税税率可能从 60%、70%到 10%、20%不等"。国务院副总理刘国中在广东调研时强调，要加快 推进农业和医疗领域科技创新，因地制宜发展农业新质生产力，提升药品医疗 器械自主创新能力，有力促进产业提质升级和经济高质量发展。要加快构建药 品医疗器械领域全国统一大市场，支持企业参与国际竞争，拓展医药产业发展 空间。欧佩克+同意将 8 月份的石油产量提高 54.8 万桶/日，高于 5 月、6 月和 7 月 41.1 万桶/日，此前市场普遍预期 8 月增幅将继续维持这一幅度。欧佩克+ 代表表示，OPEC+将考虑在下次会议上再增产 54.8 万桶/日。 重点品种：集运、原油、螺纹钢 集运欧线：上周五 EC 午后走弱，08 合约收于 1849.9 点，下跌 1.71%。盘后公布 的 SCFI 欧线为 2101 美元/TE ...