Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Polyolefin futures continued to be weak. Spot prices: some linear LL from PetroChina were lowered by 200, while Sinopec kept stable; some拉丝 PP from PetroChina were lowered by 50, with Sinopec remaining stable. Downstream demand had a high overall开工 rate with steady release, but market sentiment was affected by the weakness of crude oil and commodities. Polyolefin's own valuation was low in the short - term, and future focus should be on marginal consumption, supply, and production scheduling levels [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6699, 6763, and 6804 respectively, with changes of - 8, - 5, and - 8 and percentage changes of - 0.12%, - 0.07%, and - 0.12%. For PP, the prices were 6295, 6393, and 6435, with changes of 30, 26, and 5 and percentage changes of 0.48%, 0.41%, and 0.08% [2] - **Trading Volume**: For LL, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 270004, 103306, and 1204. For PP, they were 306411, 95171, and 2239 [2] - **Open Interest**: For LL, the open interests for January, May, and September contracts were 495726, 232562, and 4234, with changes of - 1873, 10864, and 376. For PP, they were 557253, 263547, and 12254, with changes of - 29319, 19590, and 661 [2] - **Spreads**: For LL, the spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 64, - 41, and 105 (current values), compared to - 61, - 44, and 105 (previous values). For PP, they were - 98, - 42, and 140 (current values), compared to - 102, - 63, and 165 (previous values) [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: Methanol futures were at 2118 yuan/ton (previous value 2100), Shandong propylene at 6050 yuan/ton (previous value 6075), South China propane at 574 dollars/ton (previous value 564), PP recycled materials at 5600 yuan/ton (unchanged), North China powder at 6140 yuan/ton (unchanged), and mulch film at 8700 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2] - **Mid - stream**: For LL, the prices in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6900 - 7350, 6700 - 7000, and 7000 - 7350. For PP, they were 6250 - 6450, 6150 - 6350, and 6350 - 6550 [2] Information - Due to the US Thanksgiving holiday, trading was light. International oil prices continued to rise in volatility. WTI for January 2026 was at 59.10 dollars/barrel in electronic trading, up 0.45 dollars or 0.77%. Brent crude for January 2026 settled at 63.34 dollars/barrel, up 0.21 dollars or 0.33% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may be on the stronger side, while zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - Night - time copper prices closed higher. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output continues to grow strongly. Grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production is negative, and the real estate market is weak. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, supporting copper prices in the long term. Suggestions include monitoring changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventories are generally high. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production is negative, and the real estate market is weak. Overall, zinc supply - demand differences are not significant, and prices may fluctuate within a range [2] Market Data | Metal | Domestic Previous Date Futures Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (yuan/ton) | Previous LME 3 - Month Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium (USD/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 86,930 | 60 | 10,930 | 16.56 | 156,500 | - 75 | | Aluminum | 21,470 | - 60 | 2,832 | - 28.45 | 541,725 | - 2,000 | | Zinc | 22,380 | 45 | 3,022 | 165.44 | 49,925 | 1,925 | | Nickel | 116,710 | - 2,980 | 14,840 | - 197.06 | 254,520 | 1,038 | | Lead | 16,945 | - 60 | 1,984 | - 38.94 | 264,975 | 400 | | Tin | 301,460 | - 4,590 | 37,925 | 126.15 | 3,125 | 40 | [2]

报告日期：2025 年 11 月 27 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：能化夜盘低位反弹 美联储发布褐皮书显示，根据美联储 12 个辖区中的大部分报告，自上次报告以 来，经济活动基本持平；不过有 2 个辖区指出经济小幅下滑，1 个辖区报告经济 小幅增长。整体前景基本未变，部分人士指出未来几个月经济活动放缓的风险加 大。六部门联合发布《关于增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费的实施方案》， 从拓展增量、深挖存量、场景赋能等 5 方面部署 19 项重点任务，目标是到 2027 年，消费品供给结构明显优化，形成 3 个万亿级消费领域和 10 个千亿级消费热 点。 重点品种：股指、双焦、原油 股指：美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指反弹为主，通信板块领涨，国防 军工板块领跌，市场成交额 1.80 万亿元。资金方面，11 月 25 日融资余额 增加 39.90 亿元至 24462.88 亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技自立，预计科 技板块是长期方向。11 月以来"权重走强、成长走弱"主要是短线交易节 奏、事件扰动与资金防御需求共同作用的结果。若后续海外科技业绩落地、 小盘股完成补跌，市场风格有望重新趋于均衡；但在政策与流动性 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The copper price may be on the strong side, and the zinc price may fluctuate within a range [2] - For copper, the concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output continues to grow at a high rate. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices [2] - For zinc, the zinc concentrate processing fee has declined, and the concentrate supply is in a stage of tightness, but the smelting output continues to increase. The overall supply - demand difference of zinc is not obvious [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Market Situation**: Night - session copper prices closed higher. The concentrate supply remains tight, smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output continues to grow. Grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales grow positively, home appliance production scheduling shows negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a global copper supply - demand gap [2] - **Strategy Direction**: The copper price may be on the strong side. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - **Market Data**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 86,560 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 60 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 10,953 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 8.83 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 156,575 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was 825 tons [2] 3.2 Zinc - **Market Situation**: Night - session zinc prices closed. The zinc concentrate processing fee has declined, the concentrate supply is in a stage of tightness, but the smelting output continues to grow. The galvanized sheet inventory is generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is showing negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The overall supply - demand difference of zinc is not obvious [2] - **Strategy Direction**: The zinc price may fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - **Market Data**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,360 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 55 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,055 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 163.36 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 48,000 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was 575 tons [2] 3.3 Other Metals - **Aluminum**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 21,425 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 30 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,864 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 26.84 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 543,725 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 2,225 tons [2] - **Nickel**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 115,940 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 3,190 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 14,845 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 198.49 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 253,482 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was 0 tons [2] - **Lead**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,005 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 60 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,974 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 40.08 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 264,575 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 700 tons [2] - **Tin**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 294,640 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 330 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 38,090 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 185.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 3,085 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was 0 tons [2]

2025年11月27日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.370 | 102.416 | 105.735 | 105.745 | 107.850 | 107.910 | 114.29 | 114.5 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.422 | 102.470 | 105.980 | 105.960 | 108.220 | 108.275 | 115.16 | 115.31 | | | 涨跌 | -0.052 | -0.054 | -0.245 | -0.215 | -0.370 | -0.365 | -0.870 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures have returned to a weak trend. Although the overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level and demand is steadily released, market sentiment is still affected by the weakness of crude oil and commodities as a whole. In the short term, the valuation of polyolefins themselves is at a low level, and the market may continue to fluctuate at a low level in the future [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LL) - **Price Changes**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6707, 6768, and 6812 respectively, down 55, 52, and 43 from the prices two days ago, with declines of -0.81%, -0.76%, and -0.63% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 396126, 147085, and 1807 respectively, and the open interests were 497599, 221698, and 3858 respectively. The changes in open interest were +9240, +22622, and +574 [2] - **Spreads**: The spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -61, -44, and 105 respectively, compared with -58, -35, and 93 previously [2] Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Changes**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6265, 6367, and 6430 respectively, down 52, 53, and 48 from the prices two days ago, with declines of -0.82%, -0.83%, and -0.74% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 442760, 138529, and 3752 respectively, and the open interests were 586572, 243957, and 11593 respectively. The changes in open interest were -19187, +35651, and +1074 [2] - **Spreads**: The spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -102, -63, and 165 respectively, compared with -103, -58, and 161 previously [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market Raw Materials - **Prices**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and plastic film were 2098 yuan/ton, 6075 yuan/ton, 564 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6140 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, compared with 2071 yuan/ton, 6025 yuan/ton, 561 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6160 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton previously [2] Spot Market - **LL**: The current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6900 - 7350 yuan/ton, 6700 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 7000 - 7350 yuan/ton respectively, remaining the same as before except for a slight change in the South China market's upper - limit price [2] - **PP**: The current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6250 - 6450 yuan/ton, 6150 - 6350 yuan/ton, and 6350 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively, remaining unchanged from before [2] Consumption Information - On Wednesday (November 26), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.65 per barrel, up $0.70 from the previous trading day, a 1.21% increase, with a trading range of $57.66 - $58.72. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $63.13 per barrel, up $0.65 from the previous trading day, a 1.04% increase, with a trading range of $62.11 - $63.20 [2]

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.422 | 102.470 | 105.980 | 105.960 | 108.220 | 108.275 | 115.16 | 115.31 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.418 | 102.472 | 105.995 | 105.980 | 108.335 | 108.330 | 115.58 | 115.63 | | | 涨跌 | 0.004 | -0.002 | -0.015 | -0.020 | -0.115 | -0.055 | -0.420 | ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [2] Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may be on the stronger side, while zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [2] - The Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand situation into a deficit, providing long - term support for copper prices [2] - The supply - demand difference of zinc is not obvious overall, and it may fluctuate within a range [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - time copper prices closed lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output continues to grow at a high rate [2] - Grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales show positive growth, home appliance production scheduling shows negative growth, and the real estate sector remains weak [2] - Domestic copper futures' previous day's closing price was 86,540 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 50 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 10,833 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 9.52 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 155,750 tons, and the daily change was 725 tons [2] Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but smelting output continues to grow [2] - Galvanized sheet inventory is generally at a high level. Infrastructural investment's cumulative growth rate is slowing down, automobile production and sales show positive growth, home appliance production shows negative growth, and the real estate sector remains weak [2] - Domestic zinc futures' previous day's closing price was 22,360 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 35 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 3,000 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 120.77 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 47,425 tons, and the daily change was 100 tons [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 21,425 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 20 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,801 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 30.45 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 545,950 tons, and the daily change was - 2,050 tons [2] - Nickel: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 115,940 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 4,080 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 14,920 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 190.51 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 253,482 tons, and the daily change was - 468 tons [2] - Lead: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 17,005 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 50 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 1,982 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 35.57 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 265,275 tons, and the daily change was 2,425 tons [2] - Tin: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 294,640 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,580 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 37,695 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 135.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 3,085 tons, and the daily change was 0 tons [2]

2025年11月25日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2512 | TS2603 | TF2512 | TF2603 | T2512 | T2603 | TL2512 | TL2603 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.460 | 102.418 | 105.890 | 105.995 | 108.505 | 108.335 | 115.76 | 115.58 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.460 | 102.410 | 105.855 | 105.905 | 108.430 | 108.240 | 115.57 | 115.37 | | | 涨跌 | 0.000 | 0.008 | 0.035 | 0.090 | 0.075 | 0.095 | 0.190 | 0.2 ...

报告日期：2025 年 11 月 25 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：权益商品反弹在即 11 月 24 日晚，国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话。习近平指出，釜山会 晤以来，中美关系总体稳定向好，受到两国和国际社会普遍欢迎，事实再次说明， 中美"合则两利、斗则俱伤"是经过实践反复验证的常识，中美"相互成就、共 同繁荣"是看得见、摸得着的实景。双方要保持住这个势头，坚持正确方向，秉 持平等、尊重、互惠态度，拉长合作清单、压缩问题清单，争取更多积极进展， 为中美关系打开新的合作空间。习近平阐明了中方在台湾问题上的原则立场，强 调台湾回归中国是战后国际秩序重要组成部分。中美曾并肩抗击法西斯和军国主 义，当前更应该共同维护好二战胜利成果。 重点品种：股指、双焦、原油 股指：美国三大指数明显反弹，上一交易日股指涨跌分化，中小盘股经过多 日调整后明显反弹，国防军工和传媒板块领涨，石油石化和煤炭板块领跌， 市场成交额 1.74 万亿元。资金方面，11 月 21 日融资余额减少 292.08 亿元 至 24451.78 亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技自立，预计科技板块是长期方 向。11 月以来"权重走强、成长走弱"主要是 ...