宏观 消息 行业 信息 评论 及策 略 普遍上涨，10年期国债活跃券收益率下行至1.627%。央行公开市场操作净投放1586亿元，此前央行降低存款准 备金率0.5个百分点，下调7天期逆回购操作利率10bp，是继去年9月24日以来的再次双降，推动短期限债券利率普遍 回落，市场资金面转松。美联储如期按兵不动，维持联邦基金利率，英国和美国就关税贸易协议条款达成一致，欧盟 公布对950亿欧元美国商品报复清单，美债收益率回升，中方决定同意与美方进行接触，下一步的关注点将是谈判的进 展情况。受外部冲击和季节性变化影响，4月制造业景气水平有所回落，加上房地产市场尚未企稳，预计央行仍会根据 国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，加大货币政策调控强度，市场资金面有望保持宽松，将继续支撑短端国债 期货价格，目前长短端利差处于历史低位，再度压缩空间有限，如果关税谈判取得一定进展，市场避险情绪阶段性缓 和，长端国债期货价格波动有可能加大。 声明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业 ...

| | 申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | | | | | LL | | | PP | | | | 1月 5月 9月 1月 5月 | | | | | | 9月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 6948 | 7290 | 7016 | 6904 | 7082 | 6985 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 | 6979 | 7263 | 7046 | 6952 | 7115 | 7029 | | 货 | 涨跌 | -31 | 27 | -30 | -48 | -33 | -44 | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -0.44% | 0.37% | -0.43% | -0.69% | -0.46% | -0.63% | | 场 | 成交量 | 27193 | 792 | 274110 | 17713 | 701 | 266940 | | | 持仓量 | 6 ...

20250509申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 林新杰（从业编号：F3032999 交易咨询号：Z0014722） linxj@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50586279 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪金2506 | 沪金2512 | 沪银2506 | 沪银2512 | | | | 现价 | 784.54 | 790.42 | 8154.00 | 8221.00 | | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 794.80 | 800.38 | 8235.00 | 8306.00 | | | 货 | 涨跌 | -10.26 | -9.96 | -81.00 | -85.00 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -1.29% | -1.24% | -0.98% | -1.02% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 127407 | 51018 | 232016 | 108449 | | | | 成交量 | 197963 | 17040 | 274975 | 16641 | | | | 现货升贴水 | 8 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The European container shipping line (EC) opened low and then fluctuated upwards. The 06 contract closed at 1283 points, down 3.64%. Some shipping companies slightly reduced their freight rates for the second half of May, and the average online price for 40 - foot containers dropped to around $1750, close to the cost price, which may increase the shipping companies' willingness to suspend voyages. Although the expected peak season for the European line has not been completely falsified, the supply - surplus situation in the European line has been exacerbated by the overflow of capacity from the US line. After the previous decline, the market lacks upward drivers, and the peak - season space is also cautiously viewed. It is expected that the overall situation will continue to fluctuate in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Directory EC Contract Volume and Price - **EC2506**: The latest transaction price was 1283 points, down 3.64%. The trading volume was 45,529, and the open interest on one side was 38,142. The net long position of the top 20 members was - 408 [1]. - **EC2508**: The latest transaction price was 1556.4 points, down 2.45%. The trading volume was 28,090, and the open interest on one side was 36,029. The net long position of the top 20 members was - 910 [1]. - **EC2510**: The latest transaction price was 1273.2 points, down 2.94%. The trading volume was 6765, and the open interest on one side was 16,670. The net long position of the top 20 members was 0 [1]. - **EC2512**: The latest transaction price was 1458.6 points, down 1.54%. The trading volume was 1379, and the open interest on one side was 3986 [1]. - **EC2602**: The latest transaction price was 1286.8 points, down 2.31%. The trading volume was 667, and the open interest on one side was 2736 [1]. - **EC2604**: The latest transaction price was 1173 points, down 1.76%. The trading volume was 360, and the open interest on one side was 1122 [1]. - **Total**: The total trading volume was 82,790, and the total open interest on one side was 98,685. The net long position of the top 20 members was - 1318 [1]. Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - **SCFIS (weekly)**: The latest index was 1379.07 points, down 3.5% from the previous period [1]. - **SCFI ($/TEU)**: The latest price was $1200, down 4.8% from the previous period [1]. - **TCI (20GP) spot freight rate ($/TEU)**: The latest price was $1340, with no change from the previous period [1]. - **TCI (40GP) ($/FEU)**: The latest price was $2112, with no change from the previous period [1]. - **Basis spread**: The basis spread on the previous trading day was 96.07 points, up 5.2 points from the day before [1]. Spot Market Data - **Capacity**: The capacity of the Asia - Europe route was 514,749 TEU, a decrease of 456 TEU. The idle capacity ratio was 1.6% [4]. - **Average speed**: The average speed of container ships was 13.88 knots. The average speed of container ships over 17,000 TEU was 15.55 knots, and that of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU container ships was 15.01 knots [4]. - **In - port capacity**: The in - port capacity in Rotterdam was 219,600 TEU, in Hamburg was 94,600 TEU, and in Singapore was 355,300 TEU [4]. - **Routing situation**: The number of ships passing through the Gulf of Aden was 11, the north - bound traffic volume through the Suez Canal was 1, and the south - bound traffic volume was 2 [4]. - **Time charter rates**: The 6 - 12 - month time charter rate for 9000 TEU ships was $105,000 per day, for 6500 TEU ships was $72,000 per day, and for 2500 TEU ships was $33,750 per day [4].

报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 | | 20250508申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | | | | | 铝： 短期内或以震荡偏弱为主。 | | | | 镍： 可能短期区间波动运行 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价小幅收低。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产 | | | | 量。根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动电力 投资高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新能源渗透率提升有望 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 巩固汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美国关 | 幅波动 | | | 税谈判进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价小幅收高。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来 看，国内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电表现良好，地产数据降幅缩 | | | 锌 ...

报告日期：2025 年 5 月 8 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：中国持续释放政策利好 通胀压力下美联储按兵不动 在 4 月美国新增非农就业人口大超预期，体现劳动力市场仍有韧性的背景下，5 月美联储利率会议继续按兵不动，声明表示经济前景有关的不确定性进一步增 加"，"并判定，失业率上升和通胀上升的风险已经增加。""新美联储通讯社" 称，美联储官员在考虑重点是就业的风险还是通胀的风险。外交部回应中美经贸 高层会谈表示会谈是应美方请求举行的。昨日国新办"一揽子金融政策"中，中 国人民银行行长潘功胜同时宣布降准降息。金融监管总局提出八项举措全力巩固 经济回升向好的基本面。中国 4 月外汇储备规模环比上升 1.27%，央行连续六个 月增持黄金。欧洲方面表示美谈判失败，欧盟准备反制，将对波音飞机征收关税。 重点品种：股指、原油、铝 股指：美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指大幅高开，国防军工和银行板块领涨， 传媒板块领跌，全市成交额 1.51 万亿元，其中 IH2505 上涨 0.76%，IF2505 上涨 0.55%，IC2505 上涨 0.25%，IM2505 上涨 0.22%。资金方面，5 月 6 日融资余额 增 ...

| 集运欧线数据日报 | | | | | | | 2025/5/8 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 最新观点 | | | | | | 策略方向 | | | 集运欧线：EC冲高回落，06合约收于1288.2点，下跌1.83%。MSK第21周开舱，维 | | | | | | | | | 持运价不变，大柜继续报价1450美元，HPL和OOCL小幅调降5月运价，大柜均降至 | | | | | | | | | 1700美元。目前5月下半月船司多延用上半月运价，部分船司比如MSC和CMA也是较 | | | | | | | | | 上半月小幅调降，5月下半月船司线上大柜均价降至不到1800美元，基本接近船司 | | | | | | | | | 成本价，或刺激船司停航意愿的增加。目前统计到的5月和6月的船期数据，运力 | | | | | | 震荡 | | | 投放仍相对较多，不过欧线传统旺季的预期尚未完全证伪，同时在关税政策扰动 | | | | | | | | | 下，欧线货量未出现明显影响，关税主要在供给端对运价增加了压力。目前在经 | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The policies announced at the press conference can significantly boost market confidence in the future, and A - shares have risen significantly. It is believed that the stock index is likely to choose a direction in the short - term and experience a relatively long - lasting trend. The wide - straddle option buying strategy is more suitable for trading [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 3817.20, 3785.00, 3725.80, and 3695.00 respectively, with increases of 20.80, 19.20, 17.40, and 16.00. The trading volumes were 28654.00, 56105.00, 12210.00, and 3405.00, and the open interest changes were - 707.00, 3041.00, 1900.00, and 1341.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 2664.80, 2646.40, 2614.00, and 2611.00 respectively, with increases of 20.00, 17.40, 16.80, and 17.80. The trading volumes were 14757.00, 29460.00, 5485.00, and 1256.00, and the open interest changes were 1979.00, 2066.00, 834.00, and 442.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 5718.20, 5620.20, 5482.60, and 5386.00 respectively, with increases of 14.00, 0.80, - 1.00, and 0.20. The trading volumes were 31807.00, 54572.00, 14860.00, and 4699.00, and the open interest changes were - 27.00, 2968.00, 3257.00, and 1616.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 6059.60, 5953.20, 5774.00, and 5640.00 respectively, with increases of 144.80, 139.20, 133.80, and 129.40. The trading volumes were 38439.00, 107389.00, 21597.00, and 7833.00, and the open interest changes were - 771.00, 6886.00, - 64.00, and 2572.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts were - 32.20, - 18.40, - 98.00, and - 106.40 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 31.40, - 16.20, - 83.60, and - 104.00 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 3831.63, 2670.70, 5740.33, and 6111.49 respectively, with increases of 0.61, 0.87, 1.93, and 0.14. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 161.17, 47.06, 162.77, and 233.92, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 2860.11, 806.55, 2170.60, and 2965.22 [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Different industries in the CSI 300 index had different changes. For example, the energy, raw materials, and industrial sectors had increases of 1.05%, 0.57%, and 1.11% respectively, while the information technology sector had a decrease of - 0.34% [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) relative to the CSI 300 index were - 14.43, - 46.63, - 105.83, and - 136.63 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IH contracts relative to the SSE 50 index were - 5.90, - 24.30, - 56.70, and - 59.70 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IC contracts relative to the CSI 500 index were - 32.09, - 130.09, - 267.69, and - 364.29 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IM contracts relative to the CSI 1000 index were - 46.29, - 156.29, - 337.49, and - 471.49 respectively [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3342.67, 10104.13, 6294.55, and 1996.51 respectively, with increases of 0.80%, 0.22%, - 0.20%, and 0.51% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 22691.88, 36779.66, 5631.28, and 23115.96 respectively, with increases of 0.13%, - 0.14%, 0.43%, and - 0.58% [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - **Domestic Policies**: Three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations. The central bank announced ten policy measures, including a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut, a 0.1 - percentage - point policy rate cut, and a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the structural monetary policy tool rate and the provident fund loan rate. The China Financial Regulatory Administration will introduce eight incremental policies, and the CSRC will support Central Huijin and introduce reform measures for the STAR Market and the ChiNext [2] - **Reform of the Public Fund Industry**: The CSRC issued an action plan to promote the high - quality development of public funds, aiming to guide the industry from "scale - oriented" to "return - oriented" [2] - **US Federal Reserve**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% unchanged. After the rate decision, US stocks, the US dollar, and US Treasury yields declined, while gold rose slightly. Traders still expect three rate cuts this year [2] 3.6 Industry Information - **Real Estate**: In the first quarter, the balance of real estate loans increased by more than 750 billion yuan, and the new individual housing loans reached the highest quarterly increase since 2022. The housing rental loans increased by 28% year - on - year. The approved "white - list" loans of commercial banks reached 6.7 trillion yuan [2] - **New Energy Vehicles**: In April, the estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 1.14 million, a 42% year - on - year increase. Tesla China's wholesale sales in April were 58,459, a 6% year - on - year decrease [2] - **Finance**: The China Financial Regulatory Administration approved the preparation of Xingyin Financial Asset Investment Co., Ltd. by Industrial Bank [2] 3.7 Stock Index Views - **Market Performance**: The US three major indexes rose. In the previous trading day, the stock index opened significantly higher, with the national defense and military industry and banking sectors leading the gains, and the media sector leading the losses. The total trading volume of the whole market was 1.51 trillion yuan [2] - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to use the wide - straddle option buying strategy for trading [2]

| 指标 | CNF到岸价: | | | 申万期货品种策略日报- | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 马来西亚棕 榈油:连续 | | 2025/5/8 | 油脂油料 | | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | | 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；投资咨询号:Z0019570） | | | | | | | | lijy@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | 棕榈油主力 | 菜油主力 | 豆粕主力 | 菜粕主力 | 花生主力 | | | 前日收盘价 | 7786 | 7914 | 9335 | 2920 | 2484 | 8844 | | 国 | 涨跌 | 26 | -60 | 119 | 5 | 19 | 26 | | 内 | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.34% | -0.75% | -3.15% | 0.17% | 0.77% | 0.29% | | 期 | 价差 | Y9-1 | P9-1 | OI9-1 | Y-P09 | OI-Y09 | OI-P09 | | 货 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%. After the Fed's interest rate decision, U.S. stocks, the U.S. dollar, and U.S. Treasury yields declined, while gold rose slightly. Traders still expect the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year before July [4]. - Gold continued to be strong, while silver oscillated weakly. Concerns about tariff increases and geopolitical conflicts, along with central bank gold - buying demand, supported the gold price. The market is concerned about the scale of tariff escalation, and future economic data may show a more obvious stagflation trend [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - For gold futures (沪金2506, 沪金2512), the current prices are 800.20 and 806.68 respectively, with daily increases of 0.68% and 0.79%. For silver futures (沪银2506, 沪银2512), the current prices are 8146.00 and 8222.00 respectively, with daily decreases of 1.08% and 1.01% [2]. Spot Market - The previous day's closing prices of Shanghai Gold T+D, London Gold, and London Gold (in dollars per ounce) were 792.87, 796.45, and 3431.105 respectively, with daily increases of 1.72%, 5.25%, and 5.88%. The previous day's closing prices of Shanghai Silver T+D and London Silver (in dollars per ounce) were 8221.00 and 33.21 respectively, with daily increases of 0.71% and 3.78% [2]. Inventory - The current values of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory (in kilograms, daily), Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory (in kilograms, daily), COMEX gold inventory (daily), and COMEX silver inventory (daily) are 15,648, 959,785, 40,607,507, and 501,316,990 respectively. Compared with the previous values, the changes are 0, 96.00, -281,064.04, and 673016 respectively [2]. Related Derivatives - The current values of the spdr gold ETF holdings (in tons), SLV silver ETF holdings (in tons), CFTC speculators' net positions (silver), and CFTC speculators' net positions (gold) are 44315, 44315, 33486, and 32895 respectively. Compared with the previous values, the changes are 1.00, 1.00, 481, and -1451 respectively [2]. Macroeconomic News - The Fed can be patient and does not need to rush to cut interest rates. Tariffs are the main factor driving inflation expectations. The impact of tariffs has been much greater than expected. If tariffs increase significantly as announced, there will be higher inflation and lower employment [4]. - The U.S. Vice - President hopes that the European market will open to U.S. goods. The EU will announce details of counter - measures against U.S. tariffs if the negotiation fails [4]. - Due to concerns about U.S. tariffs on imported drugs, pharmaceutical manufacturers are hoarding large amounts of inventory. In March, U.S. drug imports increased by $20 billion [5].