| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | TS2512 | TS2603 | TF2512 | TF2603 | T2512 | T2603 | TL2512 | TL2603 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.384 | 102.292 | 105.775 | 105.665 | 108.170 | 107.865 | 114.76 | 114.41 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.370 | 102.274 | 105.685 | 105.570 | 108.065 | 107.750 | 114.44 | 114.11 | | | 涨跌 | 0.014 | 0.018 | 0.090 | 0.095 | 0.105 | 0.115 | 0.320 | 0.300 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The precious metals market continues to perform strongly, with gold and silver prices hitting new highs. The long - term narrative of gold as the ultimate safe - haven asset is becoming more prominent, and its demand is expected to increase further. [1][2][18] - The copper market is affected by factors such as tight concentrate supply, high smelting output, and the Indonesian mine accident, which may lead to a supply - demand gap and support copper prices in the long term. [2][19] - The crude oil market has a short - term downward breakthrough trend, although the demand is expected to grow in the next two years according to OPEC's report. [3][12] - The stock index is likely to maintain a long - term upward trend, but short - term fluctuations may increase due to Sino - US trade issues. The market style may become more balanced in the fourth quarter. [9] - The bond market is expected to be supported by a loose monetary policy, and the price of bond futures is recommended to be bullish. [10][11] Summary by Directory 1. Main News Concerns International News - US President Trump hinted at canceling new tariffs on China. [5] - The leaders of the US, Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar signed a cease - fire agreement for Gaza at the "Peace Summit" in Sharm El - Sheikh. [1][3][12] Domestic News - In September, China's goods trade imports and exports increased by 8% year - on - year. The export was 2.34 trillion yuan, up 8.4%, and the import was 1.7 trillion yuan, up 7.5%. China's rare earth exports in September decreased for the third consecutive month. [6] Industry News - China has officially implemented a special port fee for US ships starting today. [7] 2. Overseas Market Daily Returns | Variety | Unit | 10/12 | 10/13 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | S&P 500 | Points | 6,552.51 | 6,654.72 | 102.21 | 1.56% | | European STOXX50 | Points | 4,701.04 | 4,719.93 | 18.89 | 0.40% | | FTSE China A50 Futures | Points | 14,978.00 | 14,805.00 | - 173.00 | - 1.16% | | US Dollar Index | Points | 98.82 | 99.26 | 0.44 | 0.44% | | ICE Brent Crude Continuous | USD/Barrel | 62.09 | 63.39 | 1.30 | 2.09% | | London Gold Spot | USD/Ounce | 4,017.85 | 4,110.02 | 92.17 | 2.29% | | London Silver | USD/Ounce | 50.13 | 52.33 | 2.20 | 4.39% | | LME Aluminum | USD/Ton | 2,746.00 | 2,757.00 | 11.00 | 0.40% | | LME Copper | USD/Ton | 10,374.00 | 10,802.00 | 428.00 | 4.13% | | LME Zinc | USD/Ton | 2,984.50 | 3,012.00 | 27.50 | 0.92% | | LME Nickel | USD/Ton | 15,215.00 | 15,180.00 | - 35.00 | - 0.23% | | ICE No.11 Sugar | Cents/Pound | 16.1 | 15.57 | - 0.53 | - 3.29% | | ICE No.2 Cotton | Cents/Pound | 63.77 | 63.54 | - 0.23 | - 0.36% | | CBOT Soybeans | Cents/Bushel | 1,007.00 | 1,008.25 | 1.25 | 0.12% | | CBOT Soybean Meal Current | USD/Short Ton | 275.60 | 274.50 | - 1.10 | - 0.40% | | CBOT Soybean Oil Current | Cents/Pound | 49.97 | 50.53 | 0.56 | 1.12% | | CBOT Wheat Current | Cents/Bushel | 498.75 | 496.75 | - 2.00 | - 0.40% | | CBOT Corn Current | Cents/Bushel | 413.50 | 410.50 | - 3.00 | - 0.73% | [8] 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: After the high - level shock in September, the stock index is likely to enter a direction - selection stage again, with a high probability of maintaining a long - term upward trend. Short - term fluctuations may increase due to Sino - US trade issues. The market style may become more balanced in the fourth quarter. [9] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally rose, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond dropped to 1.754%. With a loose monetary policy expected, the price of Treasury bond futures is recommended to be bullish. [10][11] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC rebounded 0.27% at night. Although OPEC expects oil demand to grow in the next two years, the short - term trend is downward. [3][12] - **Methanol**: Ma fell 0.26% at night. With high inventory and expected import arrivals, methanol is short - term bullish. [13] - **Rubber**: Natural rubber prices fell on Monday. With smooth supply and slow inventory reduction, the price is expected to be weak in the short term. [14] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures are weakly operating. The price follows the cost - end fluctuations, and the market sentiment is cautious. [15] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures continue to be weak, and soda ash futures closed positive. The market is cautious, and the focus is on consumption in autumn and policy changes. [16][17] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold benefits from concerns about the resurgence of the trade war and expectations of two interest rate cuts this year. It is expected to strengthen as the ultimate safe - haven asset. [2][18] - **Copper**: Copper prices rose 1.64% at night. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap, supporting copper prices in the long term. [2][19] - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose 0.13% at night. Domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones, and it follows copper prices in the short term. [20] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand both increased, and the inventory decreased. The price is supported, and there is an expectation of project resumption. [21] Black Commodities - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - session prices were weak, and short - term fluctuations are expected to intensify due to factors such as steel production and Sino - US trade issues. [22] - **Iron Ore**: With strong demand from steel mills and reduced global shipments, the iron ore market is expected to be bullish. [23] - **Steel**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The market has a weak supply - demand balance, and hot - rolled coils perform better than rebar. [24] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Night - session prices of soybean and rapeseed meal rose. US soybean prices are expected to be weak, while domestic prices may rise due to supply concerns. [25] - **Oils and Fats**: Night - session prices were strong. Although short - term pressure exists due to inventory and trade issues, long - term support comes from the production season and bio - diesel policies. [26] - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be volatile, and domestic sugar prices are expected to be weak due to supply pressure. [27][28] - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and domestic cotton prices are expected to be weak due to factors such as new - cotton supply and weak downstream demand. [29] Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The text seems to have a wrong insertion, repeating the content of precious metals. No valid information about container shipping to Europe is provided. [30]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - **Protein Meal**: The night - session of soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated and closed higher. Tensions in Sino - US trade relations weakened the export prospects of US soybeans, depressing US soybean prices. Although the market strongly expects the US Department of Agriculture to lower the US soybean yield per unit in this month's USDA report, the report is postponed due to the US government shutdown, suppressing market trading. With US soybeans being harvested and listed, reduced export demand will continue to pressure US soybean prices, which are expected to be weak. In the domestic market, the previous valuation of Sino - US trade improvement will be revised upwards due to the renewed trade conflict. The expectation of tight supply in the later period and the expectation of tariff upgrades will boost the performance of Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean meal [2]. - **Oils and Fats**: The night - session of oils and fats showed a strong performance. The MPOB released this month's supply - demand report. In September, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.841 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73%; exports were 1.428 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.7%, basically in line with market expectations. As of the end of September, Malaysia's palm oil inventory was 2.3609 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.2%. The MPOB report shows that inventory accumulation is higher than expected. Meanwhile, uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations and increased macro - disturbances may put short - term pressure on the oils and fats market. However, in the medium to long term, the Southeast Asian production areas will enter the production - reduction season, and international biodiesel policies will continue to support the consumption demand for oils and fats [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8,268, 9,364, and 10,022 respectively, with changes of - 34, - 74, and - 39, and percentage changes of - 0.41%, - 0.78%, and - 3.15%. For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts, the previous day's closing prices were 2,932, 2,400, and 8,844 respectively, with changes of 10, - 58, and 26, and percentage changes of 0.34%, - 2.36%, and 0.29% [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current values of spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 were - 320, - 538, and - 380 respectively, compared with previous values of - 296, - 574, and - 602. The current values of ratios - spreads like M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, and M - RM09 were - 74, 3, and 458 respectively, compared with previous values of - 85, 0, and 396 [1]. 3.2 International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4,473 ringgit/ton, 1,008 cents/bushel, 51 cents/pound, and 275 dollars/ton respectively, with changes of - 26, 1, 1, and - 1, and percentage changes of - 0.58%, 0.12%, 1.12%, and - 0.40% [1]. 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil were 8,470 and 8,570 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.82% and - 0.81%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil were 9,320 and 9,260 respectively, with percentage changes of - 2.10% and - 2.11%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil were 10,270 and 10,270 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.96% and - 1.06% [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil and other products were 202, etc. The current spot spreads such as the difference between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil was - 560, compared with a previous value of - 590 [1]. 3.4 Import and Crushing Profits - The current values of import and crushing profits for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, etc. were - 465, 29, etc., compared with previous values of - 60, - 210, etc [1]. 3.5 Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, and other products were 25,444, 1,500, etc., compared with previous values of 25,444, 1,570, etc [1]. 3.6 Industry Information - As of October 11, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 11.1%, compared with 8.2% last week, 9.1% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 16.9% [2]. - The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) of the United States will release its September report on Thursday. Analysts expect the soybean crushing volume in September to be around 185 million to 190 million bushels, compared with 189.81 million bushels in August and 178.2 million bushels in the same period last year [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given documents. 2. Core View of the Report - After experiencing high - level fluctuations in September, the stock index is likely to enter a direction - selection phase again, with a high probability of maintaining a bullish trend. In the short term, due to the impact of Sino - US trade, market risk - aversion sentiment may intensify, and stock market volatility may increase. From a capital perspective, the domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents are likely to increase their allocation of equity assets. Additionally, with the Fed's interest rate cuts and the appreciation of the RMB, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In terms of market style, although technology growth has been the core theme in the current upward market trend, considering the expected increase in Q4 pro - growth policies and the potential resonance of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market style in Q4 may shift towards value and become more balanced compared to Q3 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4613.80, 4600.40, 4592.20, and 4571.80 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 4585.60, 4572.40, 4562.60, and 4541.20 respectively, with declines of - 29.60, - 31.20, - 30.60, and - 30.00. The trading volumes were 44944.00, 9140.00, 97200.00, and 16995.00, and the open interests were 49745.00, 12664.00, 163856.00, and 57094.00, with changes of - 1285.00, 3532.00, 885.00, and 1646.00 respectively [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IH contracts were 2976.00, 2973.60, 2975.80, and 2974.00, and the previous day's closing prices were 2966.20, 2962.60, 2961.60, and 2962.00, with declines of - 7.80, - 10.60, - 11.60, and - 10.60. The trading volumes were 19083.00, 3473.00, 44552.00, and 6422.00, and the open interests were 20024.00, 4171.00, 65965.00, and 13363.00, with changes of - 1061.00, 1081.00, - 1723.00, and - 517.00 respectively [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IC contracts were 7382.00, 7311.20, 7266.00, and 7100.60, and the previous day's closing prices were 7350.00, 7278.00, 7231.00, and 7059.80, with declines of - 39.60, - 42.00, - 41.60, and - 49.40. The trading volumes were 42277.00, 11392.00, 101843.00, and 21216.00, and the open interests were 49319.00, 22616.00, 143038.00, and 52606.00, with changes of - 1211.00, 3775.00, 2838.00, and 2103.00 respectively [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IM contracts were 7514.20, 7421.80, 7340.40, and 7120.00, and the previous day's closing prices were 7476.80, 7395.00, 7305.80, and 7077.60, with declines of - 42.80, - 32.40, - 40.60, and - 49.80. The trading volumes were 65213.00, 20080.00, 169889.00, and 31368.00, and the open interests were 68201.00, 28943.00, 190790.00, and 83351.00, with changes of - 2755.00, 6744.00, 7523.00, and 2846.00 respectively [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 4593.98, 2967.21, 7376.56, and 7519.76 respectively, with declines of - 0.50, - 0.26, - 0.29, and - 0.19. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 315.01, 70.16, 258.03, and 288.40, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 7140.02, 1857.83, 4732.86, and 4709.91 respectively [1]. - **Industry Indexes**: Among different industries in the CSI 300 industry index, the raw materials industry had a growth rate of 1.93%, while industries such as optional consumption, pharmaceutical and healthcare, etc. had declines, with optional consumption at - 2.02%, pharmaceutical and healthcare at - 2.33% [1]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts Basis**: The previous day's basis of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) against the CSI 300 were - 8.38, - 21.58, - 31.38, and - 52.78 respectively, compared to - 3.03, - 16.43, - 24.63, and - 45.03 two days ago [1]. - **IH Contracts Basis**: The previous day's basis of IH contracts against the SSE 50 were - 1.01, - 4.61, - 5.61, and - 5.21 respectively, compared to 1.15, - 1.25, 0.95, and - 0.85 two days ago [1]. - **IC Contracts Basis**: The previous day's basis of IC contracts against the CSI 500 were - 26.56, - 98.56, - 145.56, and - 316.76 respectively, compared to - 16.22, - 87.02, - 132.22, and - 297.62 two days ago [1]. - **IM Contracts Basis**: The previous day's basis of IM contracts against the CSI 1000 were - 42.96, - 124.76, - 213.96, and - 442.16 respectively, compared to - 19.62, - 112.02, - 193.42, and - 413.82 two days ago [1]. 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - Sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3889.50, 13231.47, 8189.82, and 3078.76 respectively, with declines of - 0.19%, - 0.93%, - 1.25%, and - 1.11% [1]. - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 25889.48, 48088.80, 6654.72, and 24387.93 respectively, with changes of - 1.52%, - 1.01%, 1.56%, and 0.60% [1]. 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - China has officially implemented a special port - dues policy for US ships starting today. In September, China's goods trade imports and exports reached 4.04 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%, with exports at 2.34 trillion yuan (up 8.4%) and imports at 1.7 trillion yuan (up 7.5%), achieving year - on - year double - growth for four consecutive months. In the third quarter, China's goods trade imports and exports increased by 6% year - on - year, achieving year - on - year growth for eight consecutive quarters. China's rare - earth exports in September were 4000.3 tons, showing a decline for the third consecutive month [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - Since 24:00 on October 13, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have been reduced by 75 yuan and 70 yuan per ton respectively. As of the end of June 2025, during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, China's shipbuilding industry had received 64.2% of global new ship orders, 15.1 percentage points higher than during the "13th Five - Year Plan" period, ranking first in the world for 16 consecutive years. In September, the retail sales of the national passenger - car market reached 2.241 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 6.3% and a month - on - month increase of 11%. From January to September this year, the State Grid completed fixed - asset investments of over 420 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.1%, and it is expected that the annual investment scale will exceed 650 billion yuan for the first time this year [2].

| | 申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | | | LL PP | | | | | | | | | 1月 | | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 6983 | 7029 | 7071 | 6693 | 6748 | 6746 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 | 7037 | 7066 | 7124 | 6722 | 6762 | 6782 | | 货 | 涨跌 | -54 | -37 | -53 | -29 | -14 | -36 | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -0.77% | -0.52% | -0.74% | -0.43% | -0.21% | -0.53% | | 场 | 成交量 | 280022 | 24605 | 231 | 369442 | 45498 | 698 | | | 持仓量 | ...

作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确 地反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 20251014申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 摘要 | 铜： 可能偏强 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 锌： 跟随铜价走势 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨1.64%。年初以来精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈 | | | | 亏边缘，但冶炼产量延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电网投资延续正增 | | | 铜 | 长，电源投资放缓；汽车产销正增长；家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。印 尼矿难大概率导致全球铜供求转向缺口，长期支撑铜价。中美贸易对峙后， | 可能偏强 | | | 市场情绪逐步企稳。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨0.13%。短期锌精矿加工费总体回升，冶炼利润转正，冶炼 产量有望持续回升。中钢协统计的镀锌板 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no specific report industry investment rating provided in the content [2] Group 2: Core Views - Copper may be on the stronger side, while zinc will follow the trend of copper prices [2] - For copper, the morning trading of US copper prices rebounded significantly. Affected by the escalation of Sino - US trade confrontation, copper prices dropped 3.29% during the weekend night session. Concentrate supply has been tight since the beginning of the year, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output has continued to grow at a high rate. Grid investment has continued positive growth, power source investment has slowed down, automobile production and sales have shown positive growth, home appliance production scheduling has shown negative growth, and the real estate market has remained weak. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices. The impact of the escalation of Sino - US trade confrontation may be less than that in April, and market sentiment will gradually stabilize [2] - For zinc, affected by the decline in copper prices, zinc prices dropped 0.72% during the weekend night session. Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory has increased on a weekly basis. Infrastructure investment cumulative growth rate has slowed down, automobile production and sales have shown positive growth, home appliance production scheduling has shown negative growth, and the real estate market has remained weak. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but it will follow the trend of copper prices in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Data Copper - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 85,900 yuan/ton; domestic basis: 15 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 10,374 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: - 31.19 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 139,475 tons; LME inventory daily change: 275 tons [2] Aluminum - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 20,980 yuan/ton; domestic basis: - 60 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 2,746 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: 12.06 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 508,600 tons; LME inventory daily change: 2,200 tons [2] Zinc - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 22,220 yuan/ton; domestic basis: - 55 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 2,985 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: 100.45 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 38,250 tons; LME inventory daily change: 0 tons [2] Nickel - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 121,980 yuan/ton; domestic basis: - 390 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 15,215 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: - 193.95 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 236,892 tons; LME inventory daily change: 4,260 tons [2] Lead - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 17,100 yuan/ton; domestic basis: - 195 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 2,015 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: - 38.22 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 237,450 tons; LME inventory daily change: 1,375 tons [2] Tin - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 286,540 yuan/ton; domestic basis: - 2,930 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 35,350 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: - 61.99 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 2,390 tons; LME inventory daily change: - 115 tons [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a "Bullish" or "Bearish" view for various commodities, with "Bullish" for corn, cotton, apple, zinc, silver, gold, iron ore, hot-rolled coil, rebar, and "Bearish" for crude oil, treasury bonds (T), treasury bonds (TL), and stock index (IM) [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trade concerns have eased, with US stock futures opening higher, S&P 500 futures up 1.1%, and Nasdaq futures up 1.4%. Brent crude futures rose more than 1% at the start, and cryptocurrencies rebounded on Sunday, with Ethereum up more than 10% overnight. Copper in New York rose more than 2% at the start of Asian trading on Monday [1] - After a high-level oscillation in September, the stock index is likely to enter a direction - selection phase again and maintain a bullish trend. In the short term, affected by Sino - US trade, market volatility may increase. The market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter [2][13] - Gold may benefit from the resurgence of the trade war. Central banks around the world are continuously increasing their gold holdings, and investors' recognition of gold as a safe - haven and value - storage asset is rising [3][22] - The resurgence of the Sino - US trade war has led to a decline in oil prices. In the short term, oil prices tend to break downward. However, there is still a possibility of trade friction mitigation, and low oil prices may cause OPEC to slow down production increases [4][5][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Main News Concerns 3.1.1 International News - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) on October 24 at 8:30 am Eastern Time (20:30 Beijing time) [7] 3.1.2 Domestic News - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have implemented export controls on relevant rare - earth items, which is a proper measure to improve the export control system [8] 3.1.3 Industry News - In September, China's Small and Medium - Sized Enterprise Development Index (SMEDI) was 89.0, down 0.1 point from August but higher than the same period last year. Some sub - indexes showed a stable and positive development trend [9][10] 3.2 Outer - Market Daily Earnings - From October 9 to 10, major outer - market indexes such as the S&P 500, European STOXX50, and FTSE China A50 futures declined. The US dollar index also fell, while gold and silver prices rose. ICE Brent crude oil fell 4.81% [11] 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Financial - **Stock Index**: After a high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is likely to maintain a bullish trend. In the short term, trade issues may increase market volatility. The market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter [2][13] - **Treasury Bonds**: Affected by US trade remarks, treasury bond yields have declined, and treasury bond futures prices are expected to remain strong until the end of October. The central bank may implement more relaxed monetary policies in the fourth quarter [15] 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Sino - US trade war has led to a decline in oil prices. Trade friction affects oil prices through supply - chain disruption and risk - asset selling. In the short term, oil prices tend to break downward [4][5][16] - **Methanol**: The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants has increased, and coastal methanol inventories are rising. Methanol is short - term bearish [17] - **Rubber**: The natural rubber futures rebounded slightly last week. Supply pressure may increase later, and the demand support is limited. The post - holiday trend of Shanghai rubber is expected to be oscillating and bullish [18] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures are running weakly. Prices are affected by cost fluctuations and market sentiment is cautious [19][20] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures continue to be weak, and soda ash futures closed down. The market is waiting for autumn consumption to digest inventory and for policy changes [21] 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold may benefit from the resurgence of the trade war. Central banks' gold - buying and investors' recognition of gold as a safe - haven asset support its price [3][22] - **Copper**: The copper price rebounded in the morning. The supply of concentrates has been tight, and the Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap, supporting the copper price in the long term [23] - **Zinc**: The zinc price fell due to the decline in the copper price. The smelting output is expected to increase, and the domestic zinc price may be weaker than the foreign price [24] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has increased, demand is in the peak season, and inventory is decreasing. The lithium salt price is supported, and there is an expectation of project resumption [25][26] 3.3.4 Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures were weak on Friday night. The fundamentals changed little during the holiday. The short - term price may fluctuate sharply [27] - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills' production enthusiasm is high, iron ore demand is supported, and global iron ore shipments have decreased. The market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [28] - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The market supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is expected to be bullish in the medium term, with hot - rolled coil stronger than rebar [29] 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The bean and rapeseed meal oscillated weakly at night. The USDA report is expected to lower the US soybean yield, but the report is postponed. The domestic market is well - supplied, and the market is expected to oscillate [30] - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats were weak at night. The MPOB report showed an increase in palm oil inventory, which may put short - term pressure on prices. In the long term, prices are expected to rise [31][32] - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory - accumulation phase, and the domestic market is affected by new - season sugar production and import pressure. Sugar prices are expected to oscillate [33] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price fell. The domestic cotton market is affected by new - cotton supply and weak downstream demand. The price is expected to be oscillating and bearish [34] 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index oscillated downward. The off - season trading may have ended, and the near - term market will enter a game for the year - end peak season. The short - term peak - season expectation may weaken due to the trade war, and the far - term market is affected by the Red Sea resumption progress [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After a high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection phase again and is likely to maintain a bullish trend. In the short term, due to Sino - US trade issues, market risk - aversion sentiment may intensify, and stock market volatility may increase. Domestically, the liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. With the Fed's interest rate cuts and RMB appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In terms of market style, although technology growth has been the core theme of the current upward market trend, considering the expected increase in Q4's growth - stabilization policies and the resonance of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market style in Q4 may shift towards value and become more balanced compared to Q3 [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4613.80, 4600.40, 4592.20, and 4571.80 respectively, with declines of 98.20, 102.80, 102.20, and 100.80. The trading volumes were 43832.00, 5422.00, 96227.00, and 16669.00, and the positions were 51030.00, 9132.00, 162971.00, and 55448.00, with position changes of - 3181.00, 1427.00, - 329.00, and 3589.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 2976.00, 2973.60, 2975.80, and 2974.00, with declines of 46.80, 48.60, 48.40, and 49.80. The trading volumes were 20378.00, 3053.00, 43708.00, and 6794.00, and the positions were 21085.00, 3090.00, 67688.00, and 13880.00, with position changes of 13.00, 793.00, 840.00, and 524.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 7382.00, 7311.20, 7266.00, and 7100.60, with declines of 149.40, 160.40, 166.80, and 171.60. The trading volumes were 39765.00, 10064.00, 99771.00, and 20790.00, and the positions were 50530.00, 18841.00, 140200.00, and 50503.00, with position changes of - 6184.00, 3029.00, - 3614.00, and - 1513.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 7514.20, 7421.80, 7340.40, and 7120.00, with declines of 104.60, 117.60, 127.40, and 128.80. The trading volumes were 53416.00, 15411.00, 140881.00, and 23742.00, and the positions were 70956.00, 22199.00, 183267.00, and 80505.00, with position changes of - 2937.00, 6180.00, 1106.00, and - 498.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 13.40, - 2.40, - 70.80, and - 92.40 respectively, compared to previous values of - 9.60, - 0.80, - 62.40, and - 80.60 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 4616.83, 2974.85, 7398.22, and 7533.82 respectively, with declines of 1.97%, 1.51%, 2.00%, and 1.49%. Their trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 319.02, 67.28, 262.26, and 290.43, and total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 7927.43, 2001.81, 5021.27, and 4857.04 [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among industries, energy rose 0.88%, while raw materials, industry, optional consumption, major consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, information technology, telecom business, and public utilities had changes of - 2.23%, - 3.07%, - 1.22%, - 0.12%, - 2.74%, 0.48%, - 5.58%, - 1.41%, and 0.18% respectively [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IF contracts (current month - CSI 300, next month - CSI 300, next quarter - CSI 300, far - quarter - CSI 300) were - 3.03, - 16.43, - 24.63, and - 45.03 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IH contracts (current month - SSE 50, next month - SSE 50, next quarter - SSE 50, far - quarter - SSE 50) were 1.15, - 1.25, 0.95, and - 0.85 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IC contracts (current month - CSI 500, next month - CSI 500, next quarter - CSI 500, far - quarter - CSI 500) were - 16.22, - 87.02, - 132.22, and - 297.62 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IM contracts (current month - CSI 1000, next month - CSI 1000, next quarter - CSI 1000, far - quarter - CSI 1000) were - 19.62, - 112.02, - 193.42, and - 413.82 [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3897.03, 13355.42, 8293.71, and 3113.26 respectively, with declines of 0.94%, 2.70%, 2.86%, and 4.55% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 26290.32, 48580.44, 6552.51, and 24241.46 respectively, with changes of - 1.73%, 1.77%, - 2.71%, and - 1.50% [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - China's rare - earth export control is not a ban. The US plan to impose 100% tariffs on China seriously damages China's interests, and China firmly opposes it. China is not afraid of a tariff war. US Vice - President Vance signaled a potential easing of the trade situation, saying Trump is willing to have rational negotiations with China [2] - The National Conference on Scientific and Technological Innovation in the Industrial and Information Technology Sector was held, emphasizing the construction of a modern industrial scientific and technological innovation system [2] 6. Industry Information - The 138th Canton Fair will open on October 15, with record - high exhibition scale and pre - registered buyers. It signals a potential continued resilient growth of China's foreign trade [2] - Supervision on the illegal flow of individual business loans into the real - estate market has been strengthened, and the risks of such loans are emerging as they reach maturity and real - estate values decline [2] - The "report - price - alignment" policy will be implemented in the non - auto insurance sector. Major insurance companies have set up working groups to implement regulatory requirements [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyolefin futures are running weakly. In the spot market, some prices of linear LL from Sinopec were lowered by 100, and some from PetroChina were lowered by 50. For drawn PP, some prices from Sinopec were lowered by 50, while those from PetroChina remained stable. From a fundamental perspective, the market focuses more on the actual demand fulfillment in the medium - term and potential industrial policy changes on the supply side of polyolefins in the fourth quarter. With the continuation of China - US game on Friday, crude oil was under pressure, and in the short - term, polyolefin prices generally fluctuate passively following the cost side, with cautious market sentiment [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7037, 7066, and 7124 respectively, with decreases of - 40, - 40, and - 34 compared to the day before the previous day, and declines of - 0.57%, - 0.56%, and - 0.47% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6722, 6762, and 6782 respectively, with decreases of - 23, - 23, and - 25, and declines of - 0.34%, - 0.34%, and - 0.37% respectively [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 225133, 21799, and 186 respectively, and the open interests were 557868, 53285, and 427 respectively, with increases of 11563, 4180, and 119 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes were 251636, 14886, and 258 respectively, and the open interests were 634901, 109252, and 2775 respectively, with increases of 11295, 3625, and 170 respectively [2]. - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 29, - 58, and 87 respectively, compared to previous values of - 29, - 52, and 81. For PP, the current spreads were - 40, - 20, and 60 respectively, compared to previous values of - 40, - 22, and 62 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and plastic film were 2390 yuan/ton, 6470 yuan/ton, 532 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6590 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2293 yuan/ton, 6495 yuan/ton, 535 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6590 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Market**: In the LL spot market, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7050 - 7600 yuan/ton, 7000 - 7250 yuan/ton, and 7200 - 7650 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous ranges of 8100 - 8250 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7600 yuan/ton, and 7050 - 7300 yuan/ton. In the PP spot market, the current price ranges were 6600 - 6700 yuan/ton, 6550 - 6650 yuan/ton, and 6550 - 6700 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous ranges of 7250 - 7650 yuan/ton, 6650 - 6750 yuan/ton, and 6600 - 6750 yuan/ton [2]. Energy News - Oil prices dropped significantly on Friday. The settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.9 per barrel, the lowest since early May, down $2.61 from the previous trading day, a decline of 4.24%, with a trading range of $58.22 - $61.67. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $62.73 per barrel, the lowest since May 5, down $2.49 from the previous trading day, a decline of 3.82%, with a trading range of $62 - $65.36 [2].