Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with various factors influencing different sectors. In the short - term, some commodities may experience fluctuations, while in the long - term, certain trends are expected to continue. For example, the stock index may have short - term adjustments but a high probability of long - term upward trends, and precious metals may show a relatively strong trend in the context of approaching interest rate cuts and external interference [11][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Main News on the Day - **International News**: The number of ADP employed in the US in August was 54,000, lower than the expected 65,000 and the previous value of 104,000 [5]. - **Domestic News**: The General Office of the State Council issued an opinion on releasing the potential of sports consumption and promoting the high - quality development of the sports industry, including increasing financial support [6]. - **Industry News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Action Plan for Stable Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026", with expected average growth rates for related industries and specific goals by 2026 [7]. b. Daily Gains of Overseas Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures dropped 1.24%, the US dollar index rose 0.21%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.76%, London gold spot decreased 0.22%, London silver dropped 0.83%, ICE No. 11 sugar fell 2.18%, ICE No. 2 cotton dropped 0.02%, CBOT soybeans fell 0.59%, CBOT soybean meal rose 1.34%, CBOT soybean oil fell 0.70%, CBOT wheat fell 0.89%, and CBOT corn rose 0.50% [8]. c. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: US stock indexes rose, while the previous trading day's stock index continued to correct. In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, and with the increasing probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September, the attractiveness of RMB assets is enhanced. The market is at the resonance of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but short - term adjustments are possible [10][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds showed mixed trends. The yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond fell to 1.746%. The market is affected by factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, economic data, and real - estate policies. The price of treasury bond futures has stabilized, but the stock - bond seesaw effect continues [12]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices fluctuated at night. Before the end of the US peak driving season, gasoline and distillate inventories decreased, but commercial crude oil inventories increased. Future attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 1.18% at night. Coastal methanol inventories increased significantly, and the overall device operating rate and the average operating rate of coal (methanol) to olefin devices both increased. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short - term [3][14]. - **Rubber**: Rubber fluctuated narrowly. The price is mainly supported by supply - side factors, but the demand side is weak. The short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures were in consolidation. The spot market is mainly affected by supply - demand fundamentals, and it remains to be seen whether the futures stop falling can drive the spot to stop falling [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures continued to be weak. The market is in the process of inventory digestion, and future attention should be paid to consumption in autumn and policy changes [17]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices fell after profit - taking. The market focuses on the non - farm payrolls data on Friday. Multiple factors affect the precious metals market, and gold and silver are expected to be strong in the context of approaching interest rate cuts and external interference [4][18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices closed lower at night. With multiple factors at play, copper prices may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices closed lower at night. The supply - demand situation may tilt towards surplus, and zinc prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment. Supply and demand both show certain changes, and the price may have a callback risk after a rapid rise. If inventory starts to decline, the price may rise further [21]. - **Black Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore remains supported, but the medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large. The market is expected to be strong and volatile in the future [22]. - **Steel**: The supply - side pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is in a short - term adjustment, and the trading logic focuses on fundamental changes [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke were strong at night. The market is affected by factors such as policy expectations, inventory changes, and demand seasons, and is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2][24]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: Protein meal fluctuated at night. The US soybean market has both positive and negative factors, and the domestic market is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short - term [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats were strong at night. The fundamentals of the palm oil market have limited changes, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate [26]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory accumulation stage, with a weak trend expected. The domestic sugar market has both supporting and dragging factors, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the weak trend of the international market in the short - term [27]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices rose slightly. The domestic cotton market has a relatively tight supply in the short - term, and the market focuses on the new cotton purchase price. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [28]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index declined. The short - term market is affected by sentiment and expectations, with an expected volatile trend. The medium - term market may return to the game of off - season freight rates [29].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Polyolefin futures are trading in a consolidation mode. The spot market for linear LL has some price cuts by Sinopec, while for drawing PP, both Sinopec and PetroChina keep prices stable. The market enthusiasm has cooled, and the polyolefin spot market is mainly driven by supply - demand. Summer maintenance is in balance, and inventory is being slowly digested. The polyolefin spot prices are generally weak at the beginning of the month, and whether the stop - fall in the futures market can drive the spot market to stop falling remains to be seen [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7225, 7220, and 7170 respectively, with price drops of - 22, - 20, and - 15 and declines of - 0.30%, - 0.28%, and - 0.21% compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 235618, 5386, and 212, and the open interests were 502560, 31934, and 8450 with changes of 12101, 382, and - 77 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 5, 50, and - 55, compared to previous values of 7, 55, and - 62 [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6939, 6949, and 6828 respectively, with price drops of - 15, - 16, and - 32 and declines of - 0.22%, - 0.23%, and - 0.47% compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 207771, 5643, and 396, and the open interests were 595380, 45582, and 5316 with changes of 15647, 379, and - 273 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 10, 121, and - 111, compared to previous values of - 11, 105, and - 94 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film are 2381 yuan/ton, 6605 yuan/ton, 587 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2385 yuan/ton, 6630 yuan/ton, 589 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Market**: For LL, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets are 7200 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7350 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous prices of 8100 - 8250 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 7150 - 7450 yuan/ton. For PP, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets are 6800 - 6950 yuan/ton, 6750 - 6950 yuan/ton, and 6750 - 7050 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous prices of 7400 - 7750 yuan/ton, 6800 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6800 - 6950 yuan/ton [2]. Oil Price Information - On Thursday (September 4, 2025), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.48 per barrel, down $0.49 or 0.77% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.72 - $63.84. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.99 per barrel, down $0.61 or 0.90% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $66.35 - $67.41 [2].

20250905申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 美国司法部已对美联储理事库克展开刑事调查，并发出传票。随着美国总统特朗普试图对美联 储施加影响并推动降息，投资者对美联储独立性的担忧日益加剧。摩根大通团队表示，投资者 正在为潜在的通胀上升做准备。高盛分析师认为，对美联储信誉的"日益担忧"正在引发"重 大尾部风险"。 白宫表示，美国总统特朗普签署行政命令，正式实施美日贸易协定。据悉，该行政令将明确关 税调整措施，确保此前已征收较高关税的日本进口产品不会被双重征税，而此前税率低于15%的 商品将调整至新税率。此外，白宫表示，日本正致力于加快落实将美国大米采购量增加75%的计 划。 美国7月贸易逆差环比飙升32.5%至783亿美元，高于市场预期的757亿美元，创四个月新高。7月 进口总额激增5.9%至3588亿美元，出口总额小幅增长0.3%至2805亿美元。 黄金收敛突破后，获利回吐价格回落。市场聚焦周五非农就业数据。美国职位空缺数量减少 17.6万个，降至718.1万个，低于预期的737.8万。上周特朗普试图解雇美联储理事，挑战美联 储独立性的行为令市场感到不安。美国地质勘探局提议将白银等六种矿产纳入2025年关键矿 ...

Report Overview - The report is a daily strategy report on precious metals by Shenwan Futures, covering market data, macro news, and analysis of precious metal trends [1] Market Data Futures Market - **Gold Futures**: The current prices of Shanghai Gold 2510 and 2512 are 821.68 and 823.66 respectively, with daily increases of 0.83% and 0.86%. Their trading volumes are 265,502 and 111,269, and open interests are 142,330 and 193,360 [2] - **Silver Futures**: The current prices of Shanghai Silver 2510 and 2512 are 9,918.00 and 9,940.00 respectively, with daily increases of 1.00% and 0.98%. Their trading volumes are 627,101 and 238,141, and open interests are 270,592 and 333,080 [2] Spot Market - **Gold Spot**: Shanghai Gold T+D closed at 809.97 the previous day, up 1.27% with a gain of 10.19. London Gold closed at 817.04, up 0.77% with a gain of 6.27 [2] - **Silver Spot**: Shanghai Silver T+D closed at 9,780.00 the previous day, down 0.20% with a loss of 20.00. London Silver closed at 41.19, up 0.91% with a gain of 0.37 [2] Inventory - **Gold Inventory**: The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange is 40,251 kilograms, an increase of 627 kilograms from the previous day. COMEX gold inventory remains unchanged at 38,957,798 ounces [2] - **Silver Inventory**: The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange is 1,207,227 kilograms, an increase of 11,231 kilograms from the previous day. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 2,164,636 ounces to 516,067,724 ounces [2] Related Market Indicators - The current value of the US Dollar Index is 98.1485, up 0.29% from the previous day. The S&P Index is 6,460.26, down 0.64%. The US Treasury yield is 4.22%, down 1.40%. Brent crude oil is at $67.39, up 0.01%. The USD/CNY exchange rate is 7.1221, up 0.02% [2] Macro News - The Fed's latest Beige Book shows that economic activity in most parts of the US has hardly changed in recent weeks. Consumer spending is flat or declining as wages fail to keep up with price increases. All regions reported price increases, with 10 reporting "moderate or slight" inflation and 2 reporting "strong input price growth" [3] - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the number of job openings in July dropped to 7.181 million from a revised 7.36 million in June, hitting a 10 - month low and well below the expected 7.382 million [3] - Fed Governor Waller suggests starting interest - rate cuts this month and making multiple cuts in the coming months, but remains open to the specific pace. St. Louis Fed President Mousalem believes the current interest - rate level is suitable for the economic environment [3] - The final Eurozone Composite PMI for August slightly rose to 51, revised down 0.1 percentage point from the preliminary value, reaching a 12 - month high. The Services PMI dropped from 51 in July to 50.5 [3] Analysis and Strategy - Gold and silver have strengthened, with gold showing a convergent breakout. The market is focused on Friday's non - farm payroll data [3] - The decrease in US job openings, Trump's attempt to fire a Fed governor, and the proposal to include silver in the 2025 critical minerals list have influenced the market [3] - Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting are considered dovish, increasing expectations of a September interest - rate cut. Coupled with disappointing July non - farm payroll data, it is beneficial for precious metals [3] - The Fed's internal views are divided. Trump's personnel appointments affect market expectations of the Fed. However, due to tariff - induced inflation pressure, the Fed may still take a preventive approach to interest - rate cuts in September [3] - Trade negotiations have shown progress, but the overall trade environment has deteriorated. The "Big and Beautiful" bill is expected to increase the US fiscal deficit. The People's Bank of China's continuous gold purchases support the long - term trend of gold [3] - Overall, gold and silver are likely to show a stronger trend as the interest - rate cut approaches and Trump interferes with the Fed's independence. The market is focused on this week's non - farm payroll data [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, and it is in a policy window period. More incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year to boost the real economy. External risks are gradually easing, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September increases, further enhancing the attractiveness of RMB assets. The current market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but it is necessary to adapt to the accelerating rotation of sectors and structural differentiation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes, which have more technology - growth components, are more offensive with larger fluctuations but may bring higher returns. The SSE 50 and CSI 300, which have more dividend - blue - chip components, are more defensive with smaller fluctuations and relatively weaker price elasticity. Since July, the stock index has continued to rise with a large increase, showing signs of short - term adjustment, but the probability of the medium - to - long - term market continuation is high [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts decreased, with the decline ranging from 42.80 to 53.00. The trading volume of the IF current - month contract was 120,700, and the open interest decreased by 9,043. The spread between the next - month and current - month contracts decreased [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts increased, with the increase ranging from 6.60 to 10.60. The trading volume of the IH current - month contract was 53,059, and the open interest increased by 9,442. The spread between the next - month and current - month contracts remained unchanged [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts decreased, with the decline ranging from 118.20 to 126.60. The trading volume of the IC current - month contract was 105,870, and the open interest increased by 11,825. The spread between the next - month and current - month contracts increased [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts decreased, with the decline ranging from 118.80 to 136.40. The trading volume of the IM current - month contract was 218,061, and the open interest increased by 12,533. The spread between the next - month and current - month contracts increased [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.74%, the SSE 50 index increased by 0.39%, the CSI 500 index decreased by 2.09%, and the CSI 1000 index decreased by 2.50%. In terms of industries, the energy, optional consumption, major consumption, and real - estate finance sectors increased, while the raw materials, industrial, pharmaceutical, and information technology sectors decreased [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis of IF contracts decreased, the basis of IH contracts increased, the basis of IC contracts decreased, and the basis of IM contracts decreased [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.26%, the Small and Medium - Sized Board Index increased by 1.79%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 3.00% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.94%, the Nikkei 225 increased by 0.41%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.43%, and the DAX Index decreased by 0.37% [1] 5. Macro Information - The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank held its second meeting to discuss issues related to the bond market and pledged to promote the stable and healthy development of the bond market [2] - This year, 12 provinces have raised the minimum wage standard, with most provinces increasing the monthly minimum wage standard or the highest - grade monthly minimum wage standard by about 8% - 12% [2] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce ruled that some US fiber - optic producers and exporters evaded anti - dumping measures, and imposed anti - dumping duties on relevant companies [2] - A Hong Kong legislator pointed out that the stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong are strict, with few licenses issued, and a license may be issued early next year. The legislative process for offline OTC will also be initiated next year [2] 6. Industry Information - By 2027, relevant departments plan to build a number of agricultural machinery verification platforms and application centers [2] - In August, the second - hand housing market in Beijing increased, the second - hand housing market in Shenzhen remained above the "boom - bust line" for six consecutive months, and the second - hand housing market in Guangzhou slowed down [2] - In August, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China increased year - on - year and month - on - month, with a penetration rate of 55.3% [2] - Large paper mills such as Nine Dragons Paper, Shanying International, Lee & Man Paper, and Wuzhou Special Paper announced price increases in early September [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures continued to be weak. The spot market of linear LL and拉丝PP remained stable for Sinopec and PetroChina. Currently, from a fundamental perspective, market enthusiasm has cooled, and the polyolefin spot market is still mainly driven by supply and demand. Summer maintenance is in balance, and inventory is being slowly digested. At the beginning of the month, polyolefin spot prices were generally weak. After consecutive declines in futures, whether the stabilization of the futures market can drive the stabilization of the spot market remains to be seen [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7247, 7240, and 7185 respectively, with price changes of -5, -4, and -17 and percentage changes of -0.07%, -0.06%, and -0.24%. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6954, 6965, and 6860 respectively, with price changes of 11, 7, and 2 and percentage changes of 0.16%, 0.10%, and 0.03% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 212912, 4688, and 311 respectively, and the open interests were 490459, 31552, and 8527 respectively, with open interest changes of 9091, -45, and -104. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 186905, 6072, and 738 respectively, and the open interests were 579733, 45203, and 5589 respectively, with open interest changes of 6984, 1282, and -259 [2]. - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 7, 55, and -62 respectively, compared to previous values of 8, 42, and -50. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -11, 105, and -94 respectively, compared to previous values of -15, 100, and -85 [2]. Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2385 yuan/ton, 6630 yuan/ton, 589 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2375 yuan/ton, 6645 yuan/ton, 583 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Mid - stream Products**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7200 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively, which were the same as the previous values. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6800 - 7000 yuan/ton, 6800 - 6950 yuan/ton, and 6750 - 7050 yuan/ton respectively, with the North China market's previous range being 6800 - 7000 yuan/ton and the other two markets remaining the same [2]. News - It is expected that the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday will consider further increasing the production target in October. International oil prices rose during the session and then tumbled sharply. On Wednesday (September 3), the settlement price of the WTI crude oil futures contract for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.97 per barrel, down $1.62 or 2.47% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.72 - $65.72. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures contract for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.60 per barrel, down $1.54 or 2.23% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $67.36 - $69.24 [2].

研究局限性和风险提示 20250904申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 摘要 | 铜： 可能短期区间波动 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅偏弱波动 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润承压，但冶炼产量延 续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力行业延续正增长，光伏抢装同比陡 | | | 铜 | 增，未来增速可能放缓；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲 | 可能短期区 间波动 | | | 弱。多空因素交织，铜价可能区间波动。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需求 | | | | 等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收低。锌精矿加工费总体回升，冶炼利润转正，冶炼产量有望 持续回升。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存周度增加。基建投资累计增速小幅正增 | | | 锌 | 长，汽车产销正增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。短期供求差异可 | 可能短期宽 | | | 能向过剩倾斜，锌价可能区间偏弱波动。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下游需 | 幅偏弱波动 | | | 求等变化。 | | | | 分析师：李野 | | | | 从业资格号 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall trading environment has deteriorated, and the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill has further increased the expectation of the US fiscal deficit. The People's Bank of China has continuously increased its gold holdings, providing long - term support for gold. Precious metals are expected to show a relatively strong trend as the interest rate cut approaches and Trump interferes with the independence of the Federal Reserve [2][20]. - The steel industry's policy expectations remain positive, and the pre - National Day rigid demand restocking expectation can support the double - coking market. However, factors such as the increase in coking coal inventory, high hot metal production, and the expectation of coke price cuts will put pressure on the market, resulting in a high - level oscillatory trend [3][27][28]. - The SC crude oil night session fell 1.67%. The US has imposed additional tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase of Russian oil, and the intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has raised concerns about supply disruptions. The future trend depends on OPEC's production increase [4][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: Federal Reserve's Waller stated that the Fed should cut interest rates at the next meeting and may implement multiple rate cuts, with the pace depending on data performance [6]. - **Domestic News**: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce ruled that US fiber optic producers and exporters' trade - mode change for exporting relevant single - mode fibers to China constitutes an evasion of anti - dumping measures. Starting from September 4, 2025, the current anti - dumping tax rates for non - dispersion - shifted single - mode fibers imported from the US will be applied to relevant cut - off wavelength - shifted single - mode fibers [7]. - **Industry News**: FTSE Russell announced quarterly review changes to indices such as the FTSE China 50 on September 3, to take effect after the close on September 19. The FTSE China A50 Index will include BeiGene - U, New Fiber Optic Network, WuXi AppTec, and Zhongji Innolight, and remove China National Nuclear Power, China Unicom, Guodian NARI, and Wanhua Chemical [8]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The FTSE China A50 futures decreased by 0.56%, the US dollar index increased by 0.38%, ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 1.07%, London gold spot increased by 2.34%, London silver increased by 1.04%, ICE No. 11 sugar decreased by 1.77%, ICE No. 2 cotton decreased by 0.45%, CBOT soybeans decreased by 2.07%, CBOT soybean meal decreased by 3.16%, CBOT soybean oil decreased by 0.45%, and CBOT wheat decreased by 2.42%. CBOT corn remained unchanged [9]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index Futures**: The US major indices rose. The previous trading day saw a correction in stock index futures, with the defense and military industry sector leading the decline. The trading volume was 2.40 trillion yuan. The A - share market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom". The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, with more technology - growth components, are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 indices, with more dividend - blue - chip components, are more defensive. The stock index has risen significantly since July, showing short - term adjustment signs but with a high probability of a medium - to - long - term upward trend [11][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally rose, with the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond falling to 1.755%. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 1508 billion yuan. The market is concerned about the large debt scales of Japan and the US, and the US bond yield fluctuates. Although the economic sentiment level continues to expand, the real estate market is still in adjustment. The bond futures prices have stabilized, and attention should be paid to the impact of the equity market on the bond market sentiment [13]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell 1.67% at night. The US has imposed additional tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase of Russian oil, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict has intensified attacks on each other's energy infrastructure. The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts affects oil demand. The US crude oil inventory has decreased. Future attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [4][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 0.38% at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly, while the coal - to - olefin plant operating rate increased. The coastal methanol inventory is at a relatively high level, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. It is expected to be short - term bullish [15][16]. - **Rubber**: Rubber showed a narrow - range oscillation. The price is mainly supported by the supply side, but the supply is expected to increase periodically. The demand side is in the off - season, and the consumption stimulus policy provides some support. The short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [17]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures continued to be weak. The spot market is mainly driven by supply and demand, and the inventory is slowly being digested. It remains to be seen whether the stabilization of the futures market can drive the spot market to stop falling [18]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures continued to be weak. The supply - demand repair is ongoing, and the market focuses on the supply - side contraction. The glass and soda ash markets are in the process of inventory digestion, and future attention should be paid to the autumn consumption and policy changes [19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals, especially gold and silver, are strong. The decrease in US job vacancies, Trump's attempt to interfere with the Federal Reserve, and the expectation of an interest rate cut are all beneficial to precious metals. The long - term driving force for gold remains supported, and the market focuses on this week's non - farm payroll data [2][20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, but the smelting output continues to grow. The power, automotive, and home - appliance industries have different trends, and copper prices may fluctuate within a range [21][22]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee has increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The short - term supply - demand balance may tilt towards oversupply, and zinc prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend of lithium carbonate is affected by sentiment, with high volatility. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is also growing. The inventory has decreased slightly. There is a risk of correction after the previous rapid rise, but there is still room for price increase if the inventory is depleted [24]. - **Black Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by the strong production momentum of steel mills. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the port inventory is decreasing rapidly. The iron ore price is expected to be oscillatory and bullish in the future [25]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The rebar performs weaker than hot - rolled coils. The short - term market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the trading logic focuses on fundamental changes [26]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The double - coking futures were weak at night. The policy expectation is positive, but factors such as inventory and price cuts put pressure on the market, resulting in a high - level oscillatory trend [3][27][28]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: Protein meal futures oscillated and rose at night. The US soybean production outlook is optimistic, but the reduction in planting area and strong bio - fuel demand provide support. The domestic market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillations in the short term [29]. - **Edible Oils**: Edible oil futures were weak at night. The Malaysian palm oil production decreased in August, while exports increased. The market fundamentals have limited changes, and the oil market is expected to continue oscillating [30]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market has entered the inventory - accumulation stage, and the domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratios and low inventories. However, the import and new - season sugar supply may put pressure on prices. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to follow the international market and show a weak - oscillatory trend [31]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton futures rose slightly. The domestic cotton supply is relatively tight, and the market focus is shifting to the new - cotton purchase. The Xinjiang cotton production is high, and attention should be paid to the selling - hedging pressure after the large - scale listing of new cotton. The cotton market is expected to oscillate in the short term [32]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index oscillated and fell 3.04%. The short - term market is expected to be supported by the stabilization of the US - bound shipping market and the MSC's National Day suspension plan. In the medium term, it may return to the game of off - season freight rates. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the impact of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays on shipping companies' capacity regulation [33][34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range due to the combination of positive and negative factors. The supply of concentrates is tight, squeezing smelting profits, yet smelting output continues to grow. The power industry, PV installation, auto production and sales show positive growth, while the growth of home appliance output slows and the real estate sector remains weak [2]. - Zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range and weak fluctuations. The processing fees for zinc concentrates are rising, leading to positive smelting profits and expected continuous increase in smelting output. The short - term supply - demand balance may tilt towards surplus, with factors such as inventory increase and mixed downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Copper - **Market Performance**: Night - session copper prices closed higher. The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 79,680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 220 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month closing price was 9,981 dollars/ton, and the LME spot was at a discount of 69.58 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract. LME inventory was 158,875 tons, with a daily decrease of 25 tons [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are under pressure, but smelting output continues to grow strongly. The power industry maintains positive growth, PV installation has a sharp year - on - year increase but future growth may slow. Auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Night - session zinc prices closed higher. The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 22,280 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 85 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month closing price was 2,866 dollars/ton, and the LME spot was at a premium of 20.44 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract. LME inventory was 55,875 tons, with a daily decrease of 625 tons [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising overall, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. The weekly inventory of galvanized sheets increased. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. Other Metals - **Aluminum**: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 20,740 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 30 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month closing price was 2,622 dollars/ton, and the LME spot was at a premium of 5.70 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract. LME inventory was 481,050 tons with no daily change [2]. - **Nickel**: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 122,220 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 2,140 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month closing price was 15,232 dollars/ton, and the LME spot was at a discount of 185.03 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract. LME inventory was 209,844 tons, with a daily increase of 300 tons [2]. - **Lead**: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 16,800 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 130 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month closing price was 1,994 dollars/ton, and the LME spot was at a discount of 43.10 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract. LME inventory was 259,550 tons, with a daily decrease of 1,500 tons [2]. - **Tin**: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 273,660 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 1,110 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month closing price was 34,735 dollars/ton, and the LME spot was at a premium of 140.01 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract. LME inventory was 2,155 tons, with a daily increase of 145 tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Polyolefin futures continued to be weak yesterday. In the spot market, linear LL prices were stable for Sinopec and partly stable for PetroChina, while拉丝 PP prices were stable for Sinopec and partly reduced by 30 for PetroChina. Currently, from a fundamental perspective, market enthusiasm has cooled, and the polyolefin spot market is still mainly driven by supply - demand factors. Summer maintenance is in balance, and inventory is being slowly digested. Polyolefin spot prices were generally weak at the beginning of the month. Whether the stop - falling of the futures market can drive the spot market to stop falling remains to be seen [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7252, 7244, and 7202 respectively, with price drops of - 18, - 32, and - 2, and percentage drops of - 0.25%, - 0.44%, and - 0.03% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6943, 6958, and 6858 respectively, with price drops of - 22, - 24, and - 13, and percentage drops of - 0.32%, - 0.34%, and - 0.19% respectively [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: LL's trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 224458, 9387, and 1076 respectively, and open interests were 481368, 31597, and 8631 respectively, with open interest changes of 12546, 1855, and - 569 respectively. PP's trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 206293, 5697, and 1264 respectively, and open interests were 572749, 43921, and 5848 respectively, with open interest changes of 14143, 734, and - 629 respectively [2]. - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 8, 42, and - 50 respectively, compared to previous values of - 6, 72, and - 66. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 15, 100, and - 85 respectively, compared to previous values of - 17, 111, and - 94 [2]. Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and plastic film were 2375 yuan/ton, 6645 yuan/ton, 583 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous values of 2387 yuan/ton, 6605 yuan/ton, 574 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Mid - stream Products**: For LL, the current price ranges in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7200 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively, with previous price ranges in North China including 8100 - 8250 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6800 - 7000 yuan/ton, 6800 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6750 - 7050 yuan/ton respectively, with a previous price range in South China of 6800 - 7050 yuan/ton [2]. News - On Tuesday (September 2), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $65.59 per barrel, up $1.58 or 2.47% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.66 - $66.03. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $69.14 per barrel, up $0.99 or 1.45% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $68.05 - $69.53 [2].