Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold continues to strengthen, with international gold prices surpassing $4,200 per ounce. The Fed Chair hinted at a pause in balance - sheet reduction, trade - war concerns are intensifying, and bets on two interest rate cuts this year are growing stronger. The U.S. government shutdown is ongoing, and the U.S. fiscal deficit and debt situation are deteriorating. Against this backdrop, central banks are continuously increasing their gold holdings, and investors' recognition of gold as a safe - haven and value - storing asset is rising. However, after a rapid rise, there are accumulated profitable positions, so be aware of possible adjustments and increased volatility [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Market**: - For gold futures, the prices of沪金2606 and沪金2512 are 969.60 and 962.08 respectively, with daily increases of 1.86 and 1.74, and increases of 0.19% and 0.18%. Their trading volumes are 6,880 and 420,246, and open interests are 22,325 and 230,686. - For silver futures, the prices of沪银2606 and沪银2512 are 12,201.00 and 12,138.00 respectively, with daily increases of 171.00 and 172.00, and increases of 1.42% and 1.44%. Their trading volumes are 31,945 and 2,033,514, and open interests are 19,602 and 477,807 [2]. - **Spot Market**: - The price of Shanghai Gold T + D has increased by 18.55 to 958.5, with a rise of 1.97%. London gold (in dollars per ounce) has increased by 13.55 to 964.00, with a rise of 1.43%. - The price of Shanghai Silver T + D has increased by 431.00 to 11,961.00, with a rise of 3.74%. London silver (in dollars per ounce) has increased by 1.64 to 53.05, with a rise of 3.19% [2]. - **Inventory**: - The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold has increased by 2,916.00 kilograms to 75,099 kilograms. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver has decreased by 32,643.00 kilograms to 1,030,429 kilograms. - COMEX gold inventory has decreased by 375,461.09 to 39,285,219, and COMEX silver inventory has decreased by 2,921,026 to 512,711,524 [2]. - **Related Derivatives and Indexes**: - The dollar index has decreased by 0.38% to 98.6659, the S&P index has increased by 0.40% to 6,671.06, the U.S. Treasury yield has increased by 0.50% to 4.05, and Brent crude oil has increased by 0.01% to 62.47. The U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan has decreased by 0.14% to 7.1301. - The spdr gold ETF and SLV silver ETF holdings have both increased by 1.00 tons to 44,315 tons. The CFTC speculator net long position in silver has increased by 486 to 33,486, while that in gold has decreased by 1,451 to 32,895 [2]. Macro News - The U.S. side said that whether to impose a 100% tariff on China depends on China's actions. The Chinese Foreign Ministry urged the U.S. to correct its wrong actions and resolve issues through dialogue. China opposes the EU's forced technology - transfer practices. - The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that economic activity has changed little recently, with a slight decline in overall consumer spending and stable employment levels. - The U.S. Senate failed to advance the Republican's temporary appropriation bill. The U.S. government may cut over 10,000 federal government jobs during the shutdown. The U.S. Treasury Secretary plans to submit Fed leadership candidates to Trump after Thanksgiving [3]. Fed Policy and Economic Data - Fed Governor Stephen Milan said that due to increased trade tensions, policymakers need to cut interest rates soon. He expects two interest rate cuts this year. - The New York Fed's manufacturing index rose 19.4 points to 10.7 in October, far exceeding market expectations, and the outlook index reached its highest level since the beginning of the year [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection phase again, and it is likely to maintain a bullish trend. Domestically, the liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. Externally, with the Fed's interest rate cuts and RMB appreciation, foreign funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In terms of market style, although technology growth has been the core theme in the current upward market trend, considering the possible intensification of Q4's growth - stabilization policies and the potential resonance of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market style in Q4 may shift towards value and become more balanced compared to Q3 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4601.60, 4586.60, 4576.40, and 4555.00 respectively, with increases of 70.60, 73.20, 77.20, and 77.80. The trading volumes were 40430.00, 16606.00, 86223.00, and 12308.00, and the open interests were 35819.00, 24260.00, 160428.00, and 56592.00, with changes of - 9895.00, 5467.00, - 2013.00, and - 848.00 respectively. The increases of the CSI 300 corresponding to these contracts were 1.56%, 1.62%, 1.72%, and 1.74% [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 2999.40, 2998.20, 2997.40, and 2998.40, with increases of 41.00, 46.00, 44.40, and 44.60. The trading volumes were 17842.00, 6567.00, 41717.00, and 5176.00, and the open interests were 13703.00, 6914.00, 63594.00, and 13300.00, with changes of - 5392.00, 1526.00, - 1687.00, and - 796.00 respectively. The increases of the SSE 50 corresponding to these contracts were 1.39%, 1.56%, 1.50%, and 1.51% [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 7278.20, 7196.20, 7140.20, and 6977.00, with increases of 118.40, 124.20, 121.60, and 120.00. The trading volumes were 38456.00, 19428.00, 105607.00, and 19123.00, and the open interests were 34255.00, 32793.00, 141518.00, and 52944.00, with changes of - 9786.00, 5875.00, - 10422.00, and - 2023.00 respectively. The increases of the CSI 500 corresponding to these contracts were 1.65%, 1.76%, 1.73%, and 1.75% [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 7455.80, 7362.60, 7275.20, and 7060.20, with increases of 117.60, 128.20, 126.60, and 134.20. The trading volumes were 55423.00, 28745.00, 178569.00, and 30417.00, and the open interests were 47911.00, 46218.00, 191595.00, and 84507.00, with changes of - 11189.00, 7939.00, - 2448.00, and - 280.00 respectively. The increases of the CSI 1000 corresponding to these contracts were 1.60%, 1.77%, 1.77%, and 1.94% [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 15.00, - 1.20, - 82.00, and - 93.20 respectively, compared to the previous values of - 25.20, - 3.60, - 87.40, and - 110.00 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 4606.29, 3001.35, 7294.00, and 7483.45 respectively, with increases of 1.48%, 1.36%, 1.38%, and 1.50%. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 284.77, 63.38, 217.56, and 244.85, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 6073.26, 1571.06, 3974.59, and 4037.98 respectively [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among different industries, the increases of energy, raw materials, industry, optional consumption, major consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, information technology, telecommunications, and public utilities were 0.32%, 1.18%, 1.98%, 1.49%, 0.45%, 1.77%, 1.06%, 2.75%, 1.11%, and - 0.20% respectively [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IF (current month - CSI 300), IF (next month - CSI 300), IF (next quarter - CSI 300), and IF (far - quarter - CSI 300) were - 4.69, - 19.69, - 29.89, and - 51.29 respectively, compared to the previous two - day values of 1.34, - 23.86, - 31.86, and - 52.86 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IH (current month - SSE 50), IH (next month - SSE 50), IH (next quarter - SSE 50), and IH (far - quarter - SSE 50) were - 1.95, - 3.15, - 3.95, and - 2.95 respectively, compared to the previous two - day values of 3.90, 0.30, - 2.70, and - 0.10 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IC (current month - CSI 500), IC (next month - CSI 500), IC (next quarter - CSI 500), and IC (far - quarter - CSI 500) were - 15.80, - 97.80, - 153.80, and - 317.00 respectively, compared to the previous two - day values of - 41.45, - 128.85, - 184.85, and - 350.65 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IM (current month - CSI 1000), IM (next month - CSI 1000), IM (next quarter - CSI 1000), and IM (far - quarter - CSI 1000) were - 27.65, - 120.85, - 208.25, and - 423.25 respectively, compared to the previous two - day values of - 33.15, - 143.15, - 227.35, and - 451.15 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3912.21, 13118.75, 8106.60, and 3025.87 respectively, with increases of 1.22%, 1.73%, 1.77%, and 2.36% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P, and DAX Index were 25910.60, 46847.32, 6671.06, and 24181.37 respectively, with increases of 1.84%, - 2.58%, 0.40%, and - 0.23% [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - The US side said that whether to impose a 100% tariff on China depends on China's actions. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded, urging the US to correct its wrong practices and resolve issues through dialogue and negotiation. China also opposes the EU's protectionist and discriminatory practices in the name of enhancing competitiveness [2] - In September, M2 increased by 8.4% year - on - year, M1 increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the "scissors gap" between M1 and M2 reached a new low for the year. In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2] - In September, China's CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 0.3% year - on - year. Core CPI increased by 1% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the fifth consecutive month and returning to 1% for the first time in nearly 19 months. PPI remained flat month - on - month and decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] - In September, the average interest rate of newly issued corporate loans was about 3.1%, about 40 basis points lower than the same period last year, and the average interest rate of newly issued personal housing loans was about 3.1%, about 25 basis points lower than the same period last year [2] 3.6 Industry Information - Six departments including the National Development and Reform Commission issued an action plan to double the service capacity of electric vehicle charging facilities in three years, aiming to build 28 million charging facilities nationwide by the end of 2027, providing over 300 million kilowatts of public charging capacity to meet the charging needs of over 80 million electric vehicles [2] - In September, the trading volume of the national second - hand car market was 1.7944 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 8.2%, with a trading amount of 110.466 billion yuan [2] - Chengdu expanded the scope of beneficiaries of the "commercial - to - provident" loan policy,取消了本市缴存限制，符合条件的异地缴存人也可申请办理，and all commercial banks that have signed cooperation agreements with the Chengdu Housing Provident Fund Center can participate [2]

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | TS2512 | TS2603 | TF2512 | TF2603 | T2512 | T2603 | TL2512 | TL2603 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.382 | 102.282 | 105.730 | 105.635 | 108.130 | 107.815 | 114.58 | 114.24 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.384 | 102.292 | 105.775 | 105.665 | 108.170 | 107.865 | 114.76 | 114.41 | | | 涨跌 | -0.002 | -0.010 | -0.045 | -0.030 | -0.040 | -0.050 | -0.180 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The NOPA's monthly crushing report shows that the soybean oil inventory at the end of September dropped to 1.243 billion pounds, down 0.2% month - on - month, hitting a nine - month low, but up 16.6% year - on - year and higher than market expectations [2] - Indian vegetable oil imports in September were 1,639,743 tons, slightly down from 1,677,346 tons in August, with palm oil imports dropping significantly from 990,528 tons in August to 829,017 tons [2] - Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal closed up. The US is working to ease trade tensions, alleviating concerns about US soybean exports. The 10 - month USDA supply - demand report is postponed due to the government shutdown. The domestic supply is sufficient, putting pressure on the upward movement of domestic meal prices [2] - Night trading of soybean and rapeseed oil was weak, while palm oil closed up. The MPOB report shows that September Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 0.73% month - on - month, exports increased by 7.7% month - on - month, and inventory increased by 7.2% month - on - month. In the short term, the oil market may be under pressure, but in the long - term, the Southeast Asian production area will enter the production - reduction season and biodiesel policies will support oil consumption [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For domestic futures, the previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8252, 9322, and 9932 respectively, with changes of 12, - 8, and - 27 and percentage changes of 0.15%, - 0.09%, and - 3.15% [1] - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spreads and ratios of various varieties have changed. For example, the Y9 - 1 spread changed from - 296 to - 320, and the M9 - 1 spread changed from - 85 to - 74 [1] International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean oil, and CBOT soybean meal were 4350 ringgit/ton, 1007 cents/bu, 51 cents/lb, and 276 dollars/ton respectively, with changes of - 70, 1, 0, and 1 and percentage changes of - 1.58%, 0.07%, 0.51%, and 0.40% [1] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: Spot prices of various oils and meals have changed. For example, the current prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8450 and 8540 respectively, with a percentage change of - 0.12% [1] - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spreads between different spot products have also changed. For example, the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil changed from - 590 to - 560 [1] Import and Crushing Profit - **Profit Changes**: The import and crushing profits of various products have changed. For example, the profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil changed from - 417 to - 379 [1] Warehouse Receipts - **Quantity Changes**: The quantity of warehouse receipts for some products has changed. For example, the quantity of soybean oil warehouse receipts changed from 25,444 to 26,294 [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Polyolefin futures fluctuated at a low level and closed in the red, with a slight decline during the night session. In the spot market, Sinopec lowered the price of linear LL by 100 in some cases, while PetroChina kept it stable. For drawn PP, Sinopec and PetroChina both lowered the price by 50 in some cases. From a fundamental perspective, the medium - term market should pay more attention to the realization of actual demand and potential industrial policy changes on the supply side of polyolefins in the fourth quarter. Currently, due to the continued China - US game, crude oil is under pressure, weakening cost support. In the short term, polyolefin prices generally fluctuate passively following the cost side, and market sentiment is cautious. However, after continuous declines in chemicals, the decline rate may slow down [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Futures Market LL Futures - Previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6910, 6945, and 6997 respectively, with changes of - 8, - 4, and 0, and percentage changes of - 0.12%, - 0.06%, and 0.00% compared to the prices two days ago. Volumes were 205449, 17406, and 257, and open interests were 568826, 60269, and 618, with changes of - 8271, 1224, and 72 respectively. Spreads such as January - May, May - September, and September - January had present values of - 35, - 52, and 87, compared to previous values of - 31, - 48, and 79 [2] PP Futures - Previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6595, 6648, and 6672 respectively, with changes of - 7, - 3, and - 8, and percentage changes of - 0.11%, - 0.05%, and - 0.12% compared to the prices two days ago. Volumes were 270926, 28348, and 476, and open interests were 667779, 113474, and 3657, with changes of 2325, 2983, and 128 respectively. Spreads such as January - May, May - September, and September - January had present values of - 53, - 24, and 77, compared to previous values of - 49, - 29, and 78 [2] Spot Market Upstream and Downstream - For raw materials, the current values of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and plastic film were 2300 yuan/ton, 6260 yuan/ton, 531 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6510 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous values of 2278 yuan/ton, 6280 yuan/ton, 524 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6520 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] Mid - stream - For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6950 - 7500, 6900 - 7150, and 7150 - 7600 respectively, compared to previous ranges of 6950 - 7550, 6950 - 7250, and 7150 - 7600. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6450 - 6650, 6500 - 6600, and 6500 - 6650 respectively, compared to previous ranges of 6500 - 6650, 6500 - 6600, and 6500 - 6650 [2] Information on Crude Oil - On Wednesday (October 15), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.27 per barrel, down $0.43 or 0.73% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $58.2 - $59.42. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $61.91 per barrel, down $0.48 or 0.77% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.79 - $63.04 [2]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may be on the stronger side. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, yet smelting output continues to grow. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, which will support copper prices in the long - term. Market sentiment has gradually stabilized after the Sino - US trade confrontation [2]. - Zinc prices will follow the trend of copper prices. Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, and smelting profits have turned positive, with smelting output expected to continue to rise. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones [2]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Price Movement**: The copper price closed up 0.57% overnight [2]. - **Supply - demand Factors**: The concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output continues to grow. Grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production schedules are in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap [2]. - **Suggestion**: Pay attention to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: The zinc price closed down 0.74% overnight [2]. - **Supply - demand Factors**: Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, and smelting profits have turned positive, with smelting output expected to continue to rise. Galvanized sheet inventories have increased weekly. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production schedules are in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. Domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones due to different inventory situations at home and abroad [2]. - **Suggestion**: Pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data | Variety | Domestic Previous - day Futures Closing Price (Yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (Yuan/ton) | Previous - day LME 3 - month Futures Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium (CASH - 3M, USD/ton) | LME Inventory (ton) | LME Inventory Daily Change (ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 84,400 | 20 | 10,599 | 54.87 | 139,350 | - 50 | | Aluminum | 20,840 | 0 | 2,740 | 10.22 | 506,000 | - 2,825 | | Zinc | 22,200 | - 85 | 2,954 | 87.22 | 37,475 | - 475 | | Nickel | 120,490 | - 1,640 | 15,105 | - 208.69 | 242,094 | 4,716 | | Lead | 17,050 | - 200 | 1,978 | - 44.48 | 237,000 | 0 | | Tin | 280,000 | 940 | 35,290 | - 113.00 | 2,385 | - 25 | [2]

报告日期：2025 年 10 月 15 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：美联储或将结束缩表 美联储主席鲍威尔暗示，官员们可能在未来几个月停止收缩资产负债表，他承认 货币市场出现了紧缩的"一些迹象"。鲍威尔表示，自 9 月 FOMC 货币政策会议 以来，通胀和就业前景似乎变化不大，不过他强调，劳动力市场出现越来越多的 疲软迹象。鲍威尔暗示，即使政府停摆严重削弱了美联储对经济形势的掌握程度， 但仍有望在本月晚些时候再次降息 25 个基点。10 月 13 日，中国期货业协会最 新统计数据显示，9 月份全国期货市场成交量为 7.7 亿手，成交额为 71.5 万亿 元，同比分别下降 3.03%和增长 33.16%；前三季度累计成交量为 67.44 亿手，成 交额近 550 万亿元，同比分别增长 18.29%和 24.11%。 重点品种： 贵金属、铜、原油 贵金属：金银高位波动加剧。不过随着美联储主席关于暂停的暗示下重新上涨。 本周对贸易战升温的担忧下，黄金再度中收益，对年内两次降息的押注也愈发强 烈，美国政府"停摆"持续发酵。体现在美国财政赤字、债务状况持续恶化，全 球对抗加剧，对当前金融体系不信任度上升背景下，黄金 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In the protein meal market, overnight soybean meal closed up in a volatile manner, while rapeseed meal closed slightly down. The US is working to ease trade tensions with China, alleviating concerns about US soybean exports. Although the market strongly anticipates a downward adjustment of US soybean yield per unit in the October USDA report, the report has been postponed due to the US government shutdown. With frequent market news, US soybean futures prices are mainly fluctuating. Domestically, the impact of tariffs on the market is weakening, and sufficient domestic supply still poses significant pressure on the short - term upward movement of domestic soybean meal futures [2]. - In the oil market, overnight oils showed weak performance. The MPOB September supply - demand report indicated that Malaysian palm oil production in September was 1.841 million tons, a 0.73% month - on - month decrease; exports were 1.428 million tons, a 7.7% month - on - month increase, basically in line with market expectations. By the end of September, Malaysian palm oil inventory was 2.3609 million tons, a 7.2% month - on - month increase. The MPOB report shows that inventory accumulation is higher than expected, and uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations and increased macro - disturbances may put short - term pressure on the oil market. However, in the medium to long term, the Southeast Asian production area will enter the production reduction season, and international biodiesel policies will continue to support oil consumption demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 8240, 9330, 9959, 2902, 2388, and 8844 respectively. The price changes were - 28, - 34, - 63, - 30, - 12, and 26, with percentage changes of - 0.34%, - 0.36%, - 3.15%, - 1.02%, - 0.50%, and 0.29% respectively [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads and ratios of various varieties have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the Y9 - 1 spread is now - 320 (previous value - 296), and the M9 - 1 spread is now - 74 (previous value - 85) [1]. 3.2 International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4420 ringgit/ton, 1006 cents/bushel, 51 cents/pound, and 275 dollars/ton respectively. The price changes were - 53, - 2, 0, and 0, with percentage changes of - 1.18%, - 0.20%, 0.08%, and 0.11% respectively [1]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of various oils and meals have different percentage changes. For example, the spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8460, with a - 0.12% change [1]. - **Spreads**: The current spreads between different spot products have also changed compared to the previous values. For example, the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is now - 560 (previous value - 590) [1]. 3.4 Import and Crushing Profit - The current import and crushing profits of various products have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the current import and crushing profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil is - 417 (previous value - 465) [1]. 3.5 Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of various products have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the current warehouse receipts of palm oil are 500 (previous value 1570) [1]. 3.6 Industry Information - As of the week ending October 10, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.89 per bushel, a 5.3% decrease from the previous week. In 2024, the average crushing profit was $2.44 per bushel, lower than $3.29 per bushel in 2023 [2]. - Brazil's National Supply Company (CONAB) released the 2025/26 annual supply - demand report, predicting that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production will reach 177.6 million tons, slightly lower than last month's forecast of 177.67 million tons but a 3.6 - percentage - point increase from the 2024/25 season. The US Department of Agriculture's forecast is 175 million tons [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After high-level fluctuations in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection phase again, with a high probability of maintaining a bullish trend [2] - In the short term, due to Sino - US trade issues, market risk - aversion sentiment may intensify, and stock market volatility may increase [2] - Domestically, the liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. With the Fed's interest rate cut and RMB appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market [2] - In the fourth quarter, considering the potential intensification of growth - stabilizing policies and the possible resonance of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market style may shift towards value and become more balanced compared to the third quarter [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts decreased, with declines ranging from - 0.87% to - 1.19%. Trading volumes varied, and changes in open interest showed a mixed pattern, with some decreasing and some increasing [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts had minor changes, with small increases or decreases. Trading volumes and open - interest changes also showed different trends [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts decreased significantly, with declines of up to - 2.99%. Trading volumes were relatively large, and open - interest changes were mixed [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts decreased, with declines between - 1.78% and - 2.18%. Trading volumes were substantial, and open - interest changes were a combination of increases and decreases [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of inter - month spreads for some contracts changed compared to the previous values [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes all showed different degrees of decline, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 having relatively larger declines [1] - **Industry Indexes**: In the CSI 300 industry indexes, the main consumption and real - estate finance sectors had positive growth rates, while the pharmaceutical and information technology sectors had negative growth rates [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis values of different contracts relative to their corresponding indexes changed compared to the previous two days [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others showed declines, while information on overseas indexes like the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, and S&P was also provided [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need to implement counter - cyclical adjustments, expand domestic demand, and create a first - class industrial ecosystem [2] - China countered the US' 301 investigation on its maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors by restricting transactions with relevant US subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean [2] - Fed Chair Powell hinted at a possible end to balance - sheet reduction and a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut this month [2] - The central bank's monetary policy department stated that the RMB exchange rate will remain stable in the long - term [2] 6. Industry Information - Relevant authorities may issue a document to regulate photovoltaic production capacity, including restrictions on capacity utilization and a ban on new capacity [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission will support energy - saving and carbon - reduction transformations in key industries [2] - In September, China's automobile production and sales reached new highs, with significant year - on - year growth, and new - energy vehicle production and sales also set records [2] - Shanghai aims to boost the intelligent terminal industry, targeting a total scale of over 300 billion yuan by 2027 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures mainly declined. For linear LL, some prices of Sinopec were lowered by 50, while PetroChina's prices remained stable. For拉丝 PP, some prices of Sinopec were lowered by 100, and some of PetroChina's were lowered by 50. In the medium - term, the market focuses more on the actual demand fulfillment and potential industrial policy changes on the supply side of polyolefins in the fourth quarter. After the Sino - US game over the weekend, crude oil was under pressure, weakening cost support. In the short - term, polyolefin prices fluctuate passively with the cost side, and market sentiment is cautious [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6918, 6949, and 6997 respectively, down 65, 80, and 74 from the day before, with declines of - 0.93%, - 1.14%, and - 1.05%. Trading volumes were 266284, 25247, and 310, and open interests were 577097, 59045, and 546, with changes of 12312, - 70, and 120 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 31, - 48, and 79, compared to - 46, - 42, and 88 previously [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6602, 6651, and 6680 respectively, down 91, 97, and 66 from the day before, with declines of - 1.36%, - 1.44%, and - 0.98%. Trading volumes were 365570, 42343, and 686, and open interests were 665454, 110491, and 3529, with changes of 22160, 1235, and 346 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 49, - 29, and 78, compared to - 55, 2, and 53 previously [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2278 yuan/ton, 6280 yuan/ton, 524 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6520 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, compared to 2344 yuan/ton, 6210 yuan/ton, 527 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6560 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton previously [2]. - **Spot Market (Mid - stream)**: For LL, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6950 - 7550, 6950 - 7250, and 7150 - 7600 respectively, compared to 7050 - 7550, 7000 - 7250, and 7200 - 7650 previously. For PP, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6500 - 6650, 6500 - 6600, and 6500 - 6650 respectively, compared to 6550 - 6700, 6550 - 6650, and 6550 - 6650 previously [2]. News - On Tuesday (October 14), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.70 per barrel, down $0.79 or 1.33% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $57.68 - $59.82. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $62.39 per barrel, down $0.93 or 1.47% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.50 - $63.63 [2].