Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The market entered a high-level consolidation phase after a long period of continuous rise, with some funds increasing their hedging demand at high levels, leading to a certain divergence between long and short forces and significant fluctuations in stock index futures. In the long run, the strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are mostly composed of technology growth stocks, are more offensive and volatile but may bring higher returns, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices, which are mostly composed of dividend blue chips, are more defensive, less volatile, but may have relatively weak price elasticity [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF contracts for different delivery months decreased, with the decline ranging from -0.29% to -0.43%. The trading volume of the current month contract was 83,488, and the open interest decreased by 11,408 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of IH contracts for different delivery months also decreased, with the decline ranging from -0.35% to -0.43%. The trading volume of the current month contract was 36,849, and the open interest decreased by 6,262 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of IC contracts for different delivery months increased, with the increase ranging from 0.59% to 0.78%. The trading volume of the current month contract was 86,462, and the open interest decreased by 7,730 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of IM contracts for different delivery months increased, with the increase ranging from 0.11% to 0.39%. The trading volume of the current month contract was 134,399, and the open interest decreased by 12,508 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads between different delivery months of each contract showed certain changes [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **CSI 300 Index**: The index decreased by -0.57%, with a trading volume of 26.644 billion lots and a total trading value of 689.576 billion yuan [1] - **SSE 50 Index**: The index decreased by -0.49%, with a trading volume of 6.171 billion lots and a total trading value of 177.453 billion yuan [1] - **CSI 500 Index**: The index increased by 0.35%, with a trading volume of 26.657 billion lots and a total trading value of 499.36 billion yuan [1] - **CSI 1000 Index**: The index increased by 0.31%, with a trading volume of 31.584 billion lots and a total trading value of 508.828 billion yuan [1] - **CSI 300 Industry Index**: Different industries in the CSI 300 index showed different trends, with the telecommunications business industry having the largest decline of -2.97% and the information technology industry having the largest increase of 1.03% [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis between futures and spot prices of each index showed certain changes compared with the previous values [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indices - **Domestic Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by -0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by -0.43%, the Small and Medium - Sized Board Index decreased by -0.54%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by -1.09% [1] - **Overseas Indices**: The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.16%, the Nikkei 225 increased by 0.89%, the S&P 500 decreased by -0.05%, and the DAX Index decreased by -0.02% [1] 5. Macro Information - The Ministry of Commerce initiated an anti - dumping investigation into imported analog chips from the United States. The dumping margin of the products from the US was over 300%, and they accounted for an average of 41% of the Chinese market share [2] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 600 - billion - yuan 6 - month term repurchase operation on September 15, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan this month, a continuous increase for four months [2] - Policies to promote private investment are being formulated, including setting minimum private investment participation ratios for major projects in industries such as railways, nuclear power, and oil and gas pipelines [2] - A series of industry stability and growth work plans have been or will be released, including those for the automotive, electronic information manufacturing, and power equipment industries [2] 6. Industry Information - The Shenzhen Science and Technology Sports Industry Fund was established, aiming to invest in frontier fields such as artificial intelligence, high - end sports equipment, and the metaverse [2] - The summer grain purchase in 2025 was coming to an end, with over 100 million tons of wheat purchased [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation drafted the "Interim Measures for the Management of Food Safety Inspectors (Draft for Comment)" and solicited public opinions [2] - From January to August 2025, the national railway completed fixed - asset investment of 504.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [2]

20250915申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃（LL&PP） | | lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | LL | | | PP | | | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 7169 | 7181 | 7050 | 6913 | 6936 | 6787 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 | 7209 | 7220 | 7145 | 6939 | 6961 | 6805 | | 货 | 涨跌 | -40 | -39 | -95 | -26 | -25 | -18 | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -0.55% | -0.54% | -1.33% | -0.37% | -0.36% | -0.26% | | 场 | 成交量 | 244355 | 9836 | 1732 | 255093 | 11223 | 528 | | | 持仓量 | 561110 | 35866 | 0 | 643355 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold is consolidating at a high level while silver is taking over and strengthening [4]. - The inflation data announced last week was generally in line with expectations, with the CPI rising and the PPI falling, which strengthened the expectation of a September interest - rate cut [4]. - Multiple data in September showed a weak employment market in the US, further confirming the prospect of a September interest - rate cut and pushing up the price of gold [4]. - There is speculation about a 50 - bp interest - rate cut, but it is more likely to have multiple interest - rate cuts within the year, with a neutral expectation of three cuts [4]. - The trade environment is deteriorating, and the long - term driver for gold remains clear due to factors such as the US fiscal deficit, debt expansion, and central banks' gold purchases [4]. - Gold and silver are likely to show a strong trend as the interest - rate cut approaches and there are concerns about Trump's interference in the Fed's independence, but short - term adjustments due to profit - taking should be noted [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Contents Futures Market - **Gold Futures**: - For沪金2510, the current price is 834.00, up 3.22 (0.39%) from the previous close, with a position of 114,423 and a trading volume of 165,360 [2]. - For沪金2512, the current price is 836.00, up 3.16 (0.38%) from the previous close, with a position of 210,404 and a trading volume of 107,160 [2]. - **Silver Futures**: - For沪银2510, the current price is 10,051.00, up 253.00 (2.58%) from the previous close, with a position of 203,343 and a trading volume of 301,985 [2]. - For沪银2512, the current price is 10,075.00, up 254.00 (2.59%) from the previous close, with a position of 353,668 and a trading volume of 196,315 [2]. Spot Market - **Gold Spot**: - Shanghai Gold T + D's previous - day closing price was 826.09, down 3.63 (- 0.44%) [2]. - London Gold's previous - day closing price was 831.58, down 1.70 (- 0.20%) [2]. - **Silver Spot**: - Shanghai Silver T + D's previous - day closing price was 9,772.00, down 12.00 (- 0.12%) [2]. - London Silver's previous - day closing price was 41.50, up 0.36 (0.87%) [2]. Inventory - The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold is 50,151 kg, an increase of 4,200 kg [2]. - The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver is 1,240,187 kg, a decrease of 11,983 kg [2]. - COMEX gold inventory remains unchanged, and COMEX silver inventory increases by 1,384,668 [2]. Related Market Data - The US dollar index is 97.5299, down 0.32% [2]. - The S&P index is 6,587.47, up 0.85% [2]. - The US Treasury yield is 4.01, down 0.74% [2]. - Brent crude oil is 66.31, up 0.01% [2]. - The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1129, down 0.10% [2]. Derivatives - The position of spdr gold ETF is 44,315 tons, an increase of 1 ton [2]. - The position of SLV silver ETF is 44,315 tons, an increase of 1 ton [2]. - CFTC speculators' net position in silver is 33,486, an increase of 481 [2]. - CFTC speculators' net position in gold is 32,895, a decrease of 1,451 [2]. Macro News - There is a 93.4% probability that the FOMC will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, and a very slim chance of a 50 - bp cut [3]. - Rick Rieder of BlackRock is among the top candidates for the next Fed chair and has advocated a 50 - bp interest - rate cut [3]. - The US's 15% "reciprocal tariff" on most EU goods has impacted Italy's pharmaceutical export industry, with an estimated cost increase of up to 19.5 billion euros [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index has been the standout performer, while commodities are poised for a potential upswing. The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose in 2025, and more incremental policies may be introduced in Q4 to boost the real economy. With external risks gradually easing and an increased probability of a Fed rate cut in September, the attractiveness of RMB assets is further enhanced. The current market is at the resonance of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but investors need to adapt to the accelerating sector rotation and structural differentiation [1][2][9]. - Crude oil prices may be affected by the decision of eight countries to increase daily production by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the potential partial or full restoration of the 1.65 million barrels per day voluntary production cut. Attention should be paid to the OPEC's production increase situation [3][12]. - The glass and soda ash markets are in the process of inventory digestion, with the futures market showing weakness and converging towards the spot market. The focus is on whether autumn consumption can further aid in inventory digestion and the impact of new policy changes on the fundamentals in the long - term [3][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Main News on the Day - **International News**: In August, the US consumer price index increased by 2.9% year - on - year (in line with the forecast) and 0.4% month - on - month (higher than the expected 0.3%). The number of initial jobless claims last week was 263,000, higher than the estimated 235,000 [4][5]. - **Domestic News**: The State Council has approved the implementation of comprehensive reform pilot projects for the market - based allocation of factors in 10 regions, including the Beijing Sub - center and several city clusters, for a period of two years starting immediately [6]. - **Industry News**: From September 1 - 7, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 304,000 units, a 10% year - on - year decrease and a 4% month - on - month decrease. The wholesale volume was 307,000 units, a 5% year - on - year decrease and a 9% month - on - month increase [7]. 3.2. Daily Returns of External Markets - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.85%, the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 2.08%, ICE Brent crude oil dropped by 1.91%, and other commodities showed various degrees of price changes [8]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes rose, and the previous trading day's stock index rebounded across the board. The communication sector led the gain, with a market turnover of 2.46 trillion yuan. The margin trading balance increased by 5.774 billion yuan to 2.309269 trillion yuan on September 10. The stock index has been rising since July, with short - term fluctuations but a high probability of a long - term upward trend [2][9][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The short - end of treasury bonds strengthened, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond fell to 1.8075%. The central bank's net injection of funds maintained a relatively stable capital market. However, concerns about the reduction of bond fund scale, along with the stock - bond seesaw effect and the impact of fund redemption regulations, are expected to keep the long - end of treasury bonds weak [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: The SC crude oil night session fell by 1.45%. Eight countries decided to increase daily production by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the 1.65 million barrels per day voluntary production cut may be partially or fully restored [3][12]. - **Methanol**: The methanol night session dropped by 0.54%. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory reached a historical high, indicating a short - term bearish trend [13]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price showed a weak and volatile trend. The supply is affected by the rainy season in the main producing areas, while the demand is in the off - season with uncertainties. The short - term trend is expected to be in a volatile adjustment [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins showed a weak performance. The supply - demand relationship is the main factor in the spot market. Although the inventory is gradually being digested and the rebound of international crude oil prices is helpful, the market still needs time to stop falling. Attention should be paid to the support from downstream procurement [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass futures were in a volatile consolidation. The supply - demand situation is slowly recovering, and the inventory of glass and soda ash production enterprises decreased this week. The futures market is weak and converging towards the spot market, and the focus is on autumn consumption and policy changes [3][16]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold entered a consolidation phase. The inflation data in August strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. The long - term driving factors for gold, such as the US fiscal deficit and central bank gold purchases, still exist. Gold and silver are expected to show a relatively strong trend in the short - term, but investors should be cautious of profit - taking adjustments [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose by 0.45% at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, but the smelting output continues to grow. The power, automotive, and other industries have different performance trends, and the copper price is likely to fluctuate within a range [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose by 0.13% at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrates has increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The short - term supply - demand balance may tilt towards oversupply, and the zinc price may fluctuate weakly within a range [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium price remained stable. The production increased, and the inventory decreased. However, there are still many uncertainties in the market, and investors should be vigilant against capital speculation [21]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures showed a high - level volatile trend. The inventory accumulation is mainly from rebar, and the iron - water output recovery will increase the supply pressure of finished products. Policy expectations and potential production - over - inspection effects can provide some support [22]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills have started to resume production, and the demand for iron ore is supported. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the port inventory is being rapidly depleted. The iron ore price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the future, but attention should be paid to the steel mills' production progress [23]. - **Steel**: The profitability of steel mills remains stable, and the supply pressure is gradually emerging. The steel inventory is accumulating, and the export situation is mixed. The supply - demand contradiction in the steel market is not significant for now, and the short - term trend is a correction [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal prices rose slightly at night. Although the US soybean export is affected by trade tariffs, the reduction of planting area and potential decline in yield support the price. The domestic market is expected to be in a narrow - range fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the USDA report [25][26]. - **Edible Oils**: The edible oil prices were strong at night. The palm oil price may be under pressure due to the lower - than - expected export in August. The soybean oil price is affected by the US biodiesel policy and the upcoming USDA report. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade relations and US biodiesel policies [27]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory accumulation stage with increased Brazilian sugar supply, while the domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory. However, the pressure from imported processed sugar and the upcoming new sugar - pressing season may drag down the price. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to follow the weak trend of international sugar [28]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton price rose slightly. The domestic cotton market is shifting the focus to the new cotton purchase, but the downstream demand is weak. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak [29]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC container shipping index to Europe showed a weak performance, falling by 5.28%. With the approaching of the National Day Golden Week, shipping companies are intensifying price competition, and the market is following the downward trend of spot freight rates. Attention should be paid to the shipping companies' price - adjustment rhythm [30].

2025年09月12日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2512 | TS2603 | TF2512 | TF2603 | T2512 | T2603 | TL2512 | TL2603 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.410 | 102.320 | 105.590 | 105.485 | 107.580 | 107.280 | 114.74 | 114.39 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.350 | 102.290 | 105.425 | 105.350 | 107.490 | 107.205 | 114.76 | 114.38 | | | 涨跌 | 0.060 | 0.030 | 0.165 | 0.135 | 0.090 | 0.075 | -0.020 | 0. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Polyolefins are operating weakly. The spot market of polyolefins is still mainly driven by supply - demand fundamentals. This summer's maintenance is in balance. Currently, PE inventory is being slowly digested, and PP inventory has also improved. However, the futures market is in a process of gradually stopping the decline. In the future, attention should be paid to the support of downstream stocking for raw materials [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7209, 7220, and 7145 respectively, with price drops of -17, -17, and -31, and percentage drops of -0.24%, -0.23%, and -0.43%. The trading volumes were 217976, 5427, and 29, and the open interests were 533469, 34922, and 8028, with open interest changes of 16282, 1284, and -25. The spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were -11, 75, and -64 (current values) compared to -11, 61, and -50 (previous values) [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6939, 6961, and 6805 respectively, with price drops of -9, -10, and -49, and percentage drops of -0.13%, -0.14%, and -0.71%. The trading volumes were 197721, 6276, and 190, and the open interests were 624199, 53554, and 2184, with open interest changes of 9293, 1437, and -135. The spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were -22, 156, and -134 (current values) compared to -23, 117, and -94 (previous values) [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2389 yuan/ton, 6700 yuan/ton, 601 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, compared to 2408 yuan/ton, 6675 yuan/ton, 598 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton (previous values) [2]. - **Spot Market (Mid - stream)**: The current price ranges of LL in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7150 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7350 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. The current price ranges of PP in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6750 - 6950 yuan/ton, 6700 - 6950 yuan/ton, and 6750 - 7000 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Market News - On Thursday (September 11), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.37 per barrel, down $1.30 or 2.04% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.21 - $63.80. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.37 per barrel, down $1.12 or 1.66% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $66.15 - $67.62 [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views - The probability of the current ENSO neutral climate transitioning to La Nina climate between October and December 2025 has been raised to 71% [2]. - From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit decreased by 2.70% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.09% month - on - month, and production decreased by 3.17% month - on - month [2]. - Protein meal: Night - session soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated and closed higher. Despite uncertainties in US soybean exports due to Sino - US trade tariffs, lower planting area and poor weather since August are expected to lead to a downward adjustment of US soybean yield per unit. US soybeans have strong support at the bottom with limited downside. In China, the expectation of abundant raw material supply continues, and it is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations in the short term [2]. - Oils: Night - session oils trended strongly. Malaysia's palm oil production in August was 1.85 million tons, a 2.35% month - on - month increase; exports were 1.32 million tons, a 0.29% month - on - month decrease; and inventory was 2.2 million tons, a 4.18% month - on - month increase. Short - term palm oil prices may be under pressure. US biodiesel policy has a negative impact on soybean oil, but the upcoming USDA report may boost soybean oil futures prices. Attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade relations and US biodiesel policy [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8336, 9330, and 9893 respectively, with price changes of 80, 86, and 123, and percentage changes of 0.97%, 0.93%, and - 3.15% respectively. For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts, the previous day's closing prices were 3088, 2550, and 8844 respectively, with price changes of 22, - 15, and 26, and percentage changes of 0.72%, - 0.58%, and 0.29% respectively [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current values of spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 were - 68, 116, and 87 respectively, showing changes compared to the previous values. Ratios and spreads like M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, and M - RM09 also had corresponding current and previous values [1]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4340, 1025, 51, and 286 respectively, with price changes of - 40, - 6, 1, and - 3, and percentage changes of - 0.91%, - 0.53%, 1.17%, and - 1.00% respectively [1]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of domestic products such as Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, and Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil were 8520, 8640, and 9330 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.12%, 0.12%, and - 0.53% respectively. Spot prices of other products also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: Spot basis and spreads such as those between different grades of oils and meals had current and previous values, showing corresponding changes [1]. Import and Profit - **Import Profit**: The current import profits of products such as Malaysian palm oil, US Gulf soybeans, and Brazilian soybeans were - 292, 105, and - 70 respectively, showing changes compared to the previous values [1]. Warehouse Receipts - **Warehouse Receipt Quantities**: The current warehouse receipt quantities of products such as soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 24,544, 639, and 6,953 respectively, with some showing no change compared to the previous values [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, and it is in a policy window period. More incremental policies may be introduced in Q4 to boost the real economy. External risks are gradually easing, and the increasing probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September further enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets. The current market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but it is necessary to adapt to the accelerating sector rotation and structural differentiation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which have more technology - growth components, are more offensive, with larger fluctuations but potentially higher returns. The SSE 50 and CSI 300, which have more dividend - blue - chip components, are more defensive, with smaller fluctuations but relatively weaker price elasticity. Since July, the stock index has continued to rise with a large increase, with short - term fluctuations and consolidations, but the probability of a medium - to - long - term upward trend is high [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (IF当月, IF下月, IF下季, IF隔季) were 4562.00, 4554.40, 4530.20, and 4507.20 respectively, with increases of 117.40, 117.20, 115.00, and 113.20, and increases of 2.64%, 2.64%, 2.60%, and 2.58% respectively. The trading volumes were 96412.00, 11604.00, 47652.00, and 13945.00 respectively, and the open interests were 115085.00, 18038.00, 108324.00, and 40692.00 respectively, with changes of 1600.00, 2953.00, 1872.00, and 239.00 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts (IH当月, IH下月, IH下季, IH隔季) were 2990.20, 2988.60, 2988.40, and 2991.20 respectively, with increases of 46.00, 45.20, 45.20, and 45.40, and increases of 1.56%, 1.54%, 1.54%, and 1.54% respectively. The trading volumes were 42028.00, 4349.00, 19781.00, and 4837.00 respectively, and the open interests were 50570.00, 7175.00, 36302.00, and 10351.00 respectively, with changes of 2315.00, 1502.00, 3653.00, and 1041.00 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts (IC当月, IC下月, IC下季, IC隔季) were 7124.60, 7073.00, 6969.20, and 6823.20 respectively, with increases of 236.80, 247.20, 259.20, and 266.60, and increases of 3.44%, 3.62%, 3.86%, and 4.07% respectively. The trading volumes were 103556.00, 16823.00, 55990.00, and 19426.00 respectively, and the open interests were 105917.00, 22720.00, 96364.00, and 41335.00 respectively, with changes of 623.00, 7285.00, 7632.00, and 3408.00 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts (IM当月, IM下月, IM下季, IM隔季) were 7387.80, 7326.00, 7183.60, and 6994.00 respectively, with increases of 211.20, 213.60, 218.60, and 216.60, and increases of 2.94%, 3.00%, 3.14%, and 3.20% respectively. The trading volumes were 181199.00, 20631.00, 87901.00, and 28376.00 respectively, and the open interests were 147845.00, 34852.00, 136366.00, and 69269.00 respectively, with changes of - 6657.00, 4743.00, 3831.00, and 2712.00 respectively [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF下月 - IF当月, IH下月 - IH当月, IC下月 - IC当月, and IM下月 - IM当月 were - 7.60, - 1.60, - 51.60, and - 61.80 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 9.60, - 1.60, - 60.40, and - 62.40 respectively [1] II. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous value of the CSI 300 index was 4548.03, with a trading volume of 6931.57 billion yuan and a trading volume of 253.26 billion hands, and a previous two - day value of 4445.36, with a rise of 2.31%. The previous value of the SSE 50 index was 2983.08, with a trading volume of 1884.95 billion yuan and a trading volume of 68.33 billion hands, and a previous two - day value of 2939.59, with a rise of 1.48%. The previous value of the CSI 500 index was 7122.71, with a trading volume of 4694.98 billion yuan and a trading volume of 243.95 billion hands, and a previous two - day value of 6932.11, with a rise of 2.75%. The previous value of the CSI 1000 index was 7399.89, with a trading volume of 4862.37 billion yuan and a trading volume of 293.98 billion hands, and a previous two - day value of 7230.17, with a rise of 2.35% [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among different industries, the energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption sectors had increases of 0.28%, 1.64%, 1.43%, and 0.69% respectively. The main consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and information technology sectors had increases of 0.96%, - 0.40%, 1.36%, and 6.34% respectively. The telecommunications business and public utilities sectors had increases of 8.27% and 0.10% respectively [1] III. Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts**: The previous values of IF当月 - CSI 300, IF下月 - CSI 300, IF下季 - CSI 300, and IF隔季 - CSI 300 were 13.97, 6.37, - 17.83, and - 40.83 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 12.96, - 22.56, - 44.76, and - 67.16 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous values of IH当月 - SSE 50, IH下月 - SSE 50, IH下季 - SSE 50, and IH隔季 - SSE 50 were 7.12, 5.52, 5.32, and 8.12 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 1.79, - 3.39, - 2.79, and 0.21 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous values of IC当月 - CSI 500, IC下月 - CSI 500, IC下季 - CSI 500, and IC隔季 - CSI 500 were 1.89, - 49.71, - 153.51, and - 299.51 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 68.71, - 129.11, - 249.31, and - 400.91 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous values of IM当月 - CSI 1000, IM下月 - CSI 1000, IM下季 - CSI 1000, and IM隔季 - CSI 1000 were - 12.09, - 73.89, - 216.29, and - 405.89 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 79.17, - 141.57, - 291.97, and - 480.17 respectively [1] IV. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous value of the Shanghai Composite Index was 3875.31, with a previous two - day value of 3812.22 and a rise of 1.65%. The previous value of the Shenzhen Component Index was 12979.89, with a previous two - day value of 12557.68 and a rise of 3.36%. The previous value of the Small and Medium - sized Board Index was 7923.26, with a previous two - day value of 7686.96 and a rise of 3.07%. The previous value of the ChiNext Index was 3053.75, with a previous two - day value of 2904.27 and a rise of 5.15% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous value of the Hang Seng Index was 26086.32, with a previous two - day value of 26200.26 and a decline of 0.43%. The previous value of the Nikkei 225 was 44372.50, with a previous two - day value of 43837.67 and a rise of 1.22%. The previous value of the S&P 500 was 6587.47, with a previous two - day value of 6532.04 and a rise of 0.85%. The previous value of the DAX Index was 23703.65, with a previous two - day value of 23632.95 and a rise of 0.30% [1] V. Macroeconomic Information - **Domestic**: The State Council approved a two - year pilot program for comprehensive reform of factor market allocation in 10 regions including the Beijing Sub - center and key cities in southern Jiangsu, covering traditional factors such as land, labor, and capital, as well as innovative factors such as technology and data, aiming to remove institutional obstacles to factor flow and efficient allocation. The People's Bank of China and the Central Bank of Indonesia launched a bilateral local - currency settlement framework and a QR - code interconnection cooperation project [2] - **International**: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US CPI in August rose 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations, and 0.4% month - on - month, slightly higher than the expected 0.3%. The core CPI rose 3.1% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month, in line with expectations and the previous value. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest since October 2021. After the data release, traders fully priced in three Fed rate cuts by the end of the year. Mexico plans to raise import tariffs on some trading partners, and China's Ministry of Commerce said it would closely monitor the situation and take necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests [2] VI. Industry Information - **Automobile Industry**: In 2026 and 2027, the purchase tax on new - energy vehicles will be halved to 5%. In August, China's automobile production and sales were 2.815 million and 2.857 million respectively, up 13% and 16.4% year - on - year. New - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, up 27.4% and 26.8% year - on - year. From January to August, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time [2] - **Internet Industry**: The National Internet Information Office shut down or restricted multiple illegal accounts such as "券业行家" and "国际投行研究报告" [2] - **Labor Union**: The All - China Federation of Trade Unions held a meeting on platform algorithm and labor rule negotiation. As of now, 15 leading platform companies have been included in the scope of work, 7 of which have signed special agreements on algorithms and labor rules, and the rest are expected to complete negotiations and sign agreements by the end of September, covering over 20 million new - form workers [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - Gold has entered a consolidation phase. The inflation data in August strengthened the expectation of a September interest rate cut, and the weak employment data further confirmed the prospect of a rate cut in September, which boosted gold prices. The market is speculating on a 50bp rate cut, but multiple rate cuts within the year are more likely. Gold and silver may show a relatively strong trend as the rate cut approaches and due to Trump's interference in the Fed's independence, but short - term adjustments due to profit - taking should be noted [5] Group 3: Market Data Summary Futures Market - For gold futures contracts (沪金2510 and 沪金2512), prices decreased with a decline of 0.18% and 0.13% respectively. For silver futures contracts (沪银2510 and 沪银2512), prices increased by 0.90% and 0.93% respectively [2] Spot Market - In the spot market, the prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, and Shanghai Silver T + D decreased, while the price of London Silver increased by 0.87% [2] Inventory - The inventory of gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 4,200 kg, while the inventory of silver decreased by 11,983 kg. COMEX silver inventory increased by 1,384,668 [2] Related Derivatives - The SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 1 ton each. The CFTC net long position for silver increased by 481, while that for gold decreased by 1,451 [2] Group 4: Macro News Summary - US August CPI data was released, with CPI同比 at 2.9% (in line with expectations), CPI环比 at 0.4% (slightly higher than expected), and core CPI同比 at 3.1% and环比 at 0.3% (both in line with expectations and previous values). The number of initial jobless claims last week reached 263,000, the highest since October 2021. After the data release, traders fully priced in three rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year [3] - The proportion of gold in global central bank reserves (excluding the Fed) has exceeded US Treasuries for the first time since 1996 [3] - The European Central Bank kept its policy unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, believing that inflation pressure has been effectively curbed and the euro - zone economy remains robust. Traders reduced their bets on the ECB's easing policy, suggesting that the rate - cut cycle has ended [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The U.S. three major indices showed mixed performance. The previous trading day saw the stock index rebound with oscillations, with the communication sector leading the gains and the power equipment sector leading the losses. The market turnover was 2.00 trillion yuan. On September 9, the margin trading balance increased by 5952 million yuan to 2303.495 billion yuan. In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, and it is in a policy window period. In the fourth quarter, more incremental policies may be introduced to boost the real economy, and external risks are gradually easing. The increasing probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September further enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets. The current market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but one needs to adapt to the accelerating sector rotation and structural differentiation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are mostly composed of technology - growth stocks, are more offensive, with larger fluctuations but potentially higher returns. The SSE 50 and CSI 300, which are mostly composed of dividend blue - chip stocks, are more defensive, with smaller fluctuations but relatively weaker price elasticity. Since July, the stock index has continued to rise with a large increase, and it may undergo shock consolidation in the short term, but the probability of a long - term market continuation is high [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4426.20, 4419.20, 4399.60, and 4379.20 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 4432.40, 4422.80, 4400.60, and 4378.20 respectively. The price increases were 11.60, 10.00, 7.40, and 4.60 respectively, and the corresponding increases in the CSI 300 were 0.26, 0.23, 0.17, and 0.11. The trading volumes were 76988.00, 6115.00, 38360.00, and 9217.00 respectively, and the open interest was 113485.00, 15085.00, 106452.00, and 40453.00 respectively. The changes in open interest were 944.00, 828.00, 4011.00, and 1524.00 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 2925.40, 2925.80, 2924.80, and 2926.60 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 2937.80, 2936.20, 2936.80, and 2939.80 respectively. The price increases were 15.80, 14.60, 15.00, and 16.60 respectively, and the corresponding increases in the SSE 50 were 0.54, 0.50, 0.51, and 0.57. The trading volumes were 33015.00, 2270.00, 14970.00, and 2994.00 respectively, and the open interest was 48255.00, 5673.00, 32649.00, and 9310.00 respectively. The changes in open interest were - 159.00, - 802.00, 623.00, and 245.00 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 6872.80, 6813.60, 6696.40, and 6550.00 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 6863.40, 6803.00, 6682.80, and 6531.20 respectively. The price decreases were 3.40, 5.00, 9.20, and 15.20 respectively, and the corresponding decreases in the CSI 500 were 0.05, 0.07, 0.14, and 0.23. The trading volumes were 75803.00, 7440.00, 39131.00, and 12223.00 respectively, and the open interest was 105294.00, 15435.00, 88732.00, and 37927.00 respectively. The changes in open interest were 1013.00, 556.00, 801.00, and - 638.00 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 7165.80, 7100.60, 6956.40, and 6776.80 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 7151.00, 7088.60, 6938.20, and 6750.00 respectively. The price decreases were 2.40, 3.80, 10.60, and 19.80 respectively, and the corresponding decreases in the CSI 1000 were 0.03, 0.05, 0.15, and 0.29. The trading volumes were 161976.00, 14887.00, 74810.00, and 23421.00 respectively, and the open interest was 154502.00, 30109.00, 132535.00, and 66557.00 respectively. The changes in open interest were - 826.00, 1901.00, 1429.00, and 539.00 respectively [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of the inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 9.60, - 1.60, - 60.40, and - 62.40 respectively, and the previous values were - 7.00, 0.40, - 59.20, and - 65.20 respectively [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 4445.36, 2939.59, 6932.11, and 7230.17 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 4436.26, 2928.63, 6928.97, and 7226.03 respectively. The increases were 0.21, 0.37, 0.05, and 0.06 respectively. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 203.60, 56.40, 189.92, and 252.67 respectively, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 5355.39, 1338.02, 3596.67, and 3961.05 respectively [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among the CSI 300 industry indexes, the energy, raw materials, industrial, and optional consumption sectors had decreases of - 0.47%, - 1.21%, - 0.88%, and - 0.61% respectively. The major consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and information technology sectors had increases of 0.31%, - 0.71%, - 0.08%, and 2.13% respectively. The telecommunications business and public utilities sectors had increases of 4.05% and 0.00% respectively [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts and CSI 300**: The previous values of the basis of IF (current month - CSI 300), IF (next month - CSI 300), IF (next quarter - CSI 300), and IF (far - quarter - CSI 300) were - 12.96, - 22.56, - 44.76, and - 67.16 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 10.06, - 17.06, - 36.66, and - 57.06 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts and SSE 50**: The previous values of the basis of IH (current month - SSE 50), IH (next month - SSE 50), IH (next quarter - SSE 50), and IH (far - quarter - SSE 50) were - 1.79, - 3.39, - 2.79, and 0.21 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 3.23, - 2.83, - 3.83, and - 2.03 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts and CSI 500**: The previous values of the basis of IC (current month - CSI 500), IC (next month - CSI 500), IC (next quarter - CSI 500), and IC (far - quarter - CSI 500) were - 68.71, - 129.11, - 249.31, and - 400.91 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 56.17, - 115.37, - 232.57, and - 378.97 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts and CSI 1000**: The previous values of the basis of IM (current month - CSI 1000), IM (next month - CSI 1000), IM (next quarter - CSI 1000), and IM (far - quarter - CSI 1000) were - 79.17, - 141.57, - 291.97, and - 480.17 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 60.23, - 125.43, - 269.63, and - 449.23 respectively [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3812.22, 12557.68, 7686.96, and 2904.27 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 3807.29, 12510.60, 7676.37, and 2867.97 respectively. The increases were 0.13%, 0.38%, 0.14%, and 1.27% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 26200.26, 43837.67, 6532.04, and 23632.95 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 25938.13, 43459.29, 6512.61, and 23718.45 respectively. The increases were 1.01%, 0.87%, 0.30%, and - 0.36% respectively [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - China's CPI in August was flat month - on - month and decreased by 0.4% year - on - year due to the high base and the drag of food prices. The core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the fourth consecutive month. The PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month, and was flat month - on - month, ending the eight - month downward trend [2] - The report on the implementation of the national economic and social development plan since this year pointed out that in the second half of the year, it is necessary to better coordinate domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles, coordinate high - quality development and high - level security, maintain policy continuity and stability, enhance flexibility and predictability, focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations, and promote the domestic and international dual - cycle, aiming to promote a reasonable recovery of the price level, social employment stability, and economic growth [2] - China will unswervingly expand high - level opening - up, actively align with international high - standard economic and trade rules, accelerate pilot implementation in platforms such as free trade pilot zones and national service trade innovation and development demonstration zones, and promote high - quality development of service trade [2] - China opposed the negative words and deeds of the US side, which damaged China's legitimate rights and interests and interfered in China's internal affairs [2] 3.6 Industry Information - Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly launched a special rectification action on network chaos in the automotive industry, focusing on issues such as online trolls and "black public relations" [2] - China has made major breakthroughs in prospecting for strategic emerging industry minerals, discovering an "Asian lithium belt" spanning four provinces and regions and multiple large and super - large lithium mines [2] - In August, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.31, a 3% month - on - month decrease and a 12.9% year - on - year increase. The inventory level was below the warning line but higher than the reasonable range. The passenger car terminal retail sales in September are expected to increase steadily month - on - month [2] - The China E - commerce Logistics Index in August was 112.3 points, up 0.3 points from the previous month, reaching a new high this year, and has increased for six consecutive months [2]