Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%. After the Fed's interest rate decision, U.S. stocks, the U.S. dollar, and U.S. Treasury yields declined, while gold rose slightly. Traders still expect the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year before July [4]. - Gold continued to be strong, while silver oscillated weakly. Concerns about tariff increases and geopolitical conflicts, along with central bank gold - buying demand, supported the gold price. The market is concerned about the scale of tariff escalation, and future economic data may show a more obvious stagflation trend [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - For gold futures (沪金2506, 沪金2512), the current prices are 800.20 and 806.68 respectively, with daily increases of 0.68% and 0.79%. For silver futures (沪银2506, 沪银2512), the current prices are 8146.00 and 8222.00 respectively, with daily decreases of 1.08% and 1.01% [2]. Spot Market - The previous day's closing prices of Shanghai Gold T+D, London Gold, and London Gold (in dollars per ounce) were 792.87, 796.45, and 3431.105 respectively, with daily increases of 1.72%, 5.25%, and 5.88%. The previous day's closing prices of Shanghai Silver T+D and London Silver (in dollars per ounce) were 8221.00 and 33.21 respectively, with daily increases of 0.71% and 3.78% [2]. Inventory - The current values of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory (in kilograms, daily), Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory (in kilograms, daily), COMEX gold inventory (daily), and COMEX silver inventory (daily) are 15,648, 959,785, 40,607,507, and 501,316,990 respectively. Compared with the previous values, the changes are 0, 96.00, -281,064.04, and 673016 respectively [2]. Related Derivatives - The current values of the spdr gold ETF holdings (in tons), SLV silver ETF holdings (in tons), CFTC speculators' net positions (silver), and CFTC speculators' net positions (gold) are 44315, 44315, 33486, and 32895 respectively. Compared with the previous values, the changes are 1.00, 1.00, 481, and -1451 respectively [2]. Macroeconomic News - The Fed can be patient and does not need to rush to cut interest rates. Tariffs are the main factor driving inflation expectations. The impact of tariffs has been much greater than expected. If tariffs increase significantly as announced, there will be higher inflation and lower employment [4]. - The U.S. Vice - President hopes that the European market will open to U.S. goods. The EU will announce details of counter - measures against U.S. tariffs if the negotiation fails [4]. - Due to concerns about U.S. tariffs on imported drugs, pharmaceutical manufacturers are hoarding large amounts of inventory. In March, U.S. drug imports increased by $20 billion [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On May 7, the central bank conducted 195.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 335.3 billion yuan due to 530.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing. Starting from May 8, the central bank adjusted the 7 - day reverse repurchase operation rate from 1.50% to 1.40%, and announced a series of monetary policy adjustments including a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the deposit - reserve ratio and interest rate cuts for various policy tools. The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged, and the economic outlook uncertainty increased. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year. The real estate market shows signs of improvement, with increased real estate loan balances and growing investment value recognized by some international investment institutions. The short - term market interest rates generally declined, and the yields of key - term Chinese and overseas government bonds changed differently. The short - end government bond futures prices are expected to be supported by the loose market funds, while the long - end government bond futures prices may fluctuate more if the tariff negotiation makes progress [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: On the previous trading day, government bond futures prices generally declined. For example, the T2506 contract fell 0.18%. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts changed. The open interest of some contracts decreased, while that of others increased. The cross - period spreads of some contracts also changed [2]. - **IRR**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main government bond futures contracts was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: On the previous trading day, short - term market interest rates generally declined. For instance, the SHIBOR 7 - day rate dropped 4.6bp, the DR007 rate dropped 4.19bp, and the GC007 rate dropped 5.8bp [2]. - **Chinese Key - term Government Bond Yields**: The yields of key - term Chinese government bonds changed differently. The 10Y government bond yield rose 1.76bp to 1.65%, and the long - short (10 - 2) government bond yield spread was 15.26bp [2]. - **Overseas Key - term Government Bond Yields**: The 10Y US government bond yield dropped 4bp, the 10Y German government bond yield dropped 1bp, and the 10Y Japanese government bond yield rose 3.5bp [2]. Macroeconomic News - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, adjusted the reverse repurchase operation rate, cut the deposit - reserve ratio, and lowered various policy interest rates to support the real economy [3]. - **Real Estate Market**: In the first quarter, real estate loan balances increased, and the investment value of the Chinese real estate market is gradually emerging. The financial regulatory authorities will improve relevant financing systems to support the real estate market [3]. - **Fed Policy**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged, and the economic outlook uncertainty increased. The market expects interest rate cuts [3]. - **US - EU Trade**: The US - EU trade negotiation is progressing slowly, and the EU may announce counter - measures if the negotiation fails [3]. Market Comment and Strategy - The short - end government bond futures prices are expected to be supported by the loose market funds, while the long - end government bond futures prices may fluctuate more if the tariff negotiation makes progress. The central bank may increase the intensity of monetary policy regulation according to the economic and financial situation [3].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is the 20250508 Shenwan Futures Variety Strategy Daily Report on Polyolefins (LL&PP) [1] Group 2: Futures Market - LL and PP futures prices showed increases on the previous day, with LL's 1 - month contract rising 58 yuan to 6979 yuan, a 0.84% increase; PP's 1 - month contract rising 53 yuan to 6952 yuan, a 0.77% increase [2] - The trading volume and open interest of each contract varied, with significant changes in open interest, such as a decrease of 12,547 in LL's 9 - month contract and an increase of 3,754 in PP's 1 - month contract [2] - The spreads between different contracts also changed, for example, the 1 - month to 5 - month spread of LL increased from - 309 to - 284 [2] Group 3: Raw Materials and Spot Market - The prices of raw materials such as methanol futures, Shandong propylene, and South China propane had some fluctuations, while the prices of some (semi) - finished products like PP recycled materials and North China powder remained stable [2] - In the spot market, the price ranges of LL and PP in different regions had minor changes, with some price adjustments by Sinopec and PetroChina [2] Group 4: News and Market Commentary - On Wednesday, May 7, 2025, the settlement prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil futures decreased, with WTI down 1.02 dollars to 58.07 dollars per barrel, a 1.73% decrease; Brent down 1.03 dollars to 61.12 dollars per barrel, a 1.66% decrease [2] - On Wednesday, the polyolefin futures market closed positive but fell at night. The consumption of polyolefins has temporarily peaked and declined, but due to cost fluctuations, there is resistance to downward movement at low valuations. The press conference of the State Council Information Office released many positive signals, and the implementation effect of stimulus policies should be followed up [2]

I. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating II. Core Viewpoints - The price of crude oil futures in Europe and the United States continued to decline due to OPEC and its eight allied countries accelerating production increases, triggering concerns about more supply. But the situation in the Middle East may deteriorate, narrowing the decline in international oil prices at the end of the session. Short - term outlook for oil prices is bearish [3]. - The domestic methanol market is mainly bullish in the short - term. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants increased, while the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants decreased slightly. Coastal methanol inventories dropped significantly [3]. III. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Crude Oil - SC near - month contract: The previous day's closing price was 490.0, up 10.0 (2.08%) from the day before. The trading volume was 9, and the open interest was 2,456, with a decrease of 3 [2]. - SC next - month contract: The previous day's closing price was 471.1, down 12.5 (-2.58%) from the day before. The trading volume was 128,314, and the open interest was 22,870, with a decrease of 3,357 [2]. - WTI near - month contract: The previous day's closing price was 58.38, down 0.60 (-1.02%) from the day before. The trading volume was 167,984, and the open interest was 226,780, with an increase of 4,207 [2]. - WTI next - month contract: The previous day's closing price was 57.94, down 0.50 (-0.86%) from the day before. The trading volume was 373,281, and the open interest was 587,561, with a decrease of 18,868 [2]. - Brent near - month contract: The previous day's closing price was 60.25, down 1.20 (-1.95%) from the day before. The trading volume was 236,097, and the open interest was 357,456, with an increase of 13,396 [2]. - Brent next - month contract: The previous day's closing price was 59.97, down 1.11 (-1.82%) from the day before [2]. Methanol - 01 contract: The previous day's closing price was 2316, down 25.0 (-1.07%) from the day before. The trading volume was 18,626, and the open interest was 116,830, with an increase of 4,357 [2]. - 05 contract: The previous day's closing price was 2311, down 44.0 (-1.87%) from the day before. The trading volume was 30,174, and the open interest was 7,735, with a decrease of 23,333 [2]. - 09 contract: The previous day's closing price was 2251, down 27.0 (-1.19%) from the day before. The trading volume was 494,490, and the open interest was 635,491, with a decrease of 19,453 [2]. 2. Spot Market Crude Oil - International market: OPEC's basket of crude oil price was 61.80, Brent DTD was 61.47, Russian ESPD was 58.29, Oman was 62.12, Dubai was 62.18, and Cinta was 60.42 [2]. - Domestic market: The price of Daqing crude oil was 59.79, Shengli was 59.10. The Chinese gasoline wholesale price index was 8,046 yuan/ton, and the Chinese diesel wholesale price index was 6,800 yuan/ton. FOB naphtha in Singapore was 62.18, and the ex - factory price of aviation kerosene was 5,445 yuan/ton [2]. Methanol - The spot price in the port was 0 US dollars, in East China was 2492.5 yuan, and in North China was 2395 yuan [2]. 3. Market Analysis and Strategy Crude Oil - OPEC and its eight allied countries will implement a daily production adjustment of 411,000 barrels starting from June 2025 based on the May 2025 production level, equivalent to a three - month increase [3]. - Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu vowed to retaliate against Iran, which may lead to the deterioration of the Middle East situation [3]. Methanol - The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 77.38%, a month - on - month increase of 2.73%. As of April 24, the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants was 71.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.47 percentage points but a year - on - year increase of 2.45 percentage points [3]. - Coastal methanol inventories were 58.1 tons as of April 24, down 10.93 tons (15.83%) from April 17, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.07%. The estimated tradable supply of methanol in coastal areas was around 20.4 tons. It is estimated that the arrival volume of imported methanol ships from April 25 to May 11 will be between 533,700 - 540,000 tons [3].

报告日期：2025 年 5 月 6 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：新关税担忧引发市场波澜 中国制造业与非制造业 PMI 环比双降，需求端收缩显著，但生产端仍处相对高位 （49.8%），新出口订单指数下跌至 44.7%，后续出口增长存疑，短期"抢出口" 虽支撑货运量增 1.3%，但外需疲态已显现。内需韧性分化，订单指数微降 2.3%， 消费品行业 PMI 仅降 0.6%，消费支撑力较强。美国一季度 GDP 年化下降 0.3%， 不过自 3 月市场已经对一季度的经济萎缩有一定心理准备。4 月的非农数据显示 美国就业市场仍然强劲，此背景下 5 月美联储大概率继续按兵不动，同时市场对 6 月降息的预期有所降温。关税谈判方面仍未有明显进展，而昨日特朗普表示要 对非美国制作影片征收 100%关税引发关税规模再度升级的担忧。 重点品种：原油、贵金属、铜 原油：欧佩克及其同盟八国进一步加快增产，引发对更多供应的担忧，欧美原油 期货继续下跌。八个参与国将在 2025 年 6 月从 2025 年 5 月所需的生产水平开始 实施每天 41.1 万桶的生产调整，这相当于三个月的增量。欧佩克及其减产同盟 国八国加速减产的决定公布后 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overseas market was bullish during the May Day holiday, and the A50 index rose. In the previous trading session, the stock index showed a mixed trend, with the computer sector leading the gains and the banking sector leading the losses. The total trading volume of the whole market was 1.19 trillion yuan. Among them, IH2505 fell 0.48%, IF2505 fell 0.17%, IC2505 rose 0.31%, and IM2505 rose 0.69%. The Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 indices have a relatively high proportion of domestic demand, and if the disputes between China and the United States continue, they will be less affected and have higher defensiveness. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices have a relatively large proportion of growth industries, and consumer electronics products with more exports are more affected by the China-US tariff disputes. From the current trend, the A-share market still has resilience. In the future, the focus will be on the effective policies introduced by China to boost the domestic economy. After a short-term continuous shock, it is expected to choose a direction soon [2] Summary by Directory I. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous two-day closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far quarter) were 3757.80, 3724.80, 3670.00, and 3645.60 respectively; the previous day's closing prices were 3752.00, 3716.20, 3663.20, and 3637.80 respectively, with price drops of -6.40, -9.60, -7.00, and -6.00, and declines of -0.17, -0.26, -0.19, and -0.16 respectively. The trading volumes were 20059.00, 42386.00, 6879.00, and 2373.00 respectively; the open interests were 48409.00, 136357.00, 55233.00, and 7044.00 respectively, with increases of 2138.00, 2217.00, 390.00, and 1225.00 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous two-day closing prices of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far quarter) were 2639.00, 2621.20, 2589.80, and 2583.40 respectively; the previous day's closing prices were 2627.20, 2609.20, 2578.00, and 2575.80 respectively, with price drops of -12.80, -14.00, -12.80, and -10.40, and declines of -0.48, -0.53, -0.49, and -0.40 respectively. The trading volumes were 10889.00, 26366.00, 3669.00, and 774.00 respectively; the open interests were 17334.00, 44590.00, 17493.00, and 1567.00 respectively, with increases of 40.00, 1522.00, 576.00, and 75.00 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous two-day closing prices of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far quarter) were 5573.80, 5487.20, 5360.80, and 5275.60 respectively; the previous day's closing prices were 5590.20, 5497.00, 5365.60, and 5273.00 respectively, with price increases of 17.40, 9.40, 5.00, and 6.40, and increases of 0.31, 0.17, 0.09, and 0.12 respectively. The trading volumes were 21929.00, 38409.00, 8218.00, and 3883.00 respectively; the open interests were 46587.00, 94639.00, 44900.00, and 11692.00 respectively, with decreases of -1258.00, -1230.00, -57.00, and an increase of 1431.00 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous two-day closing prices of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far quarter) were 5868.00, 5773.60, 5610.00, and 5478.20 respectively; the previous day's closing prices were 5905.40, 5801.40, 5627.60, and 5500.60 respectively, with price increases of 40.60, 32.40, 20.60, and 22.20, and increases of 0.69, 0.56, 0.37, and 0.41 respectively. The trading volumes were 36606.00, 108819.00, 20491.00, and 6528.00 respectively; the open interests were 61187.00, 153214.00, 69465.00, and 18314.00 respectively, with decreases of -2106.00, -6247.00, -513.00, and an increase of 694.00 respectively [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF next month - IF current month, IH next month - IH current month, IC next month - IC current month, and IM next month - IM current month were -35.80, -18.00, -93.20, and -104.00 respectively, compared with the previous values of -33.00, -17.80, -86.60, and -94.40 respectively [1] II. Stock Index Spot Market - **CSI 300 Index**: The previous value of the index points was 3770.57, the trading volume was 143.68 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 2448.20 billion yuan; the previous two - day value was 3775.08, 111.51 billion lots, and 1974.63 billion yuan respectively [1] - **Shanghai Composite 50 Index**: The previous two - day value of the index points was 2645.51, the trading volume was 28.04 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 538.94 billion yuan, with a decline of -0.47% [1] - **CSI 500 Index**: The previous value of the index points was 5631.82, the trading volume was 138.39 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 1816.17 billion yuan; the previous two - day value was 5604.91, 126.74 billion lots, and 1580.33 billion yuan respectively, with an increase of 0.48% [1] - **CSI 1000 Index**: The previous value of the index points was 5950.12, the trading volume was 195.46 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 2417.59 billion yuan; the previous two - day value was 5903.38, 186.02 billion lots, and 2194.12 billion yuan respectively, with an increase of 0.79% [1] - **Industry Indexes**: The previous values of the indexes of energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption were 2075.95, 2434.94, 2000.01, and 6326.87 respectively; the previous two - day values were 2080.22, 2445.34, 2003.97, and 6305.36 respectively, with changes of -0.21%, -0.43%, -0.20%, and 0.34% respectively. The previous values of the indexes of major consumption, medical and health, real estate and finance, and information technology were 22704.05, 7773.03, 6002.97, and 2298.09 respectively; the previous two - day values were 22637.13, 7694.19, 6074.25, and 2277.33 respectively, with changes of 0.30%, 1.02%, -1.17%, and 0.91% respectively. The previous values of the indexes of telecommunications and public utilities were 2712.24 and 2610.29 respectively; the previous two - day values were 2699.67 and 2619.69 respectively [1] III. Futures - Spot Basis - **CSI 300**: The previous value of the basis of IF current month - CSI 300, IF next month - CSI 300, IF next quarter - CSI 300, and IF far quarter - CSI 300 were -18.57, -54.37, -107.37, and -132.77 respectively; the previous two - day values were -17.28, -50.28, -105.08, and -129.48 respectively [1] - **Shanghai Composite 50**: The previous value of the basis of IH current month - Shanghai Composite 50, IH next month - Shanghai Composite 50, IH next quarter - Shanghai Composite 50, and IH far quarter - Shanghai Composite 50 were -5.96, -23.96, -55.16, and -57.36 respectively; the previous two - day values were -6.51, -24.31, -55.71, and -62.11 respectively [1] - **CSI 500**: The previous value of the basis of IC current month - CSI 500, IC next month - CSI 500, IC next quarter - CSI 500, and IC far quarter - CSI 500 were -41.62, -134.82, -266.22, and -358.82 respectively; the previous two - day values were -31.11, -117.71, -244.11, and -329.31 respectively [1] - **CSI 1000**: The previous value of the basis of IM current month - CSI 1000, IM next month - CSI 1000, IM next quarter - CSI 1000, and IM far quarter - CSI 1000 were -44.72, -148.72, -322.52, and -449.52 respectively; the previous two - day values were -35.38, -129.78, -293.38, and -425.18 respectively [1] IV. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index are not fully provided in the report [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P Index, and DAX Index were 22504.68, 36830.69, 5650.38, and 23344.54 respectively; the previous two - day values were 22119.41, 36452.30, 5686.67, and 23086.65 respectively, with changes of 1.74%, 1.04%, -0.64%, and 1.12% respectively [1] V. Macroeconomic Information - **Trade Policy**: US President Trump authorized the Department of Commerce and the US Trade Representative to impose a 100% tariff on all foreign - made movies entering the US, and he is negotiating trade agreements with many countries [2] - **Regional Financial Cooperation**: People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng attended and presided over the ASEAN + 3 Finance Ministers' and Central Bank Governors' Meeting. The meeting passed the establishment of a rapid financing facility funded by freely usable currencies such as the RMB under the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization [2] - **Hong Kong Monetary Authority Intervention**: Due to the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate hitting the strong - side convertibility undertaking, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority sold a record 60.543 billion Hong Kong dollars on Tuesday, selling for three consecutive days with a cumulative sale of 116.614 billion Hong Kong dollars to maintain the exchange rate stability [2] - **Consumption during May Day**: During the May Day holiday, the national consumer market was prosperous. The sales of key retail and catering enterprises increased by 6.3% year - on - year. The subsidy applications for car trade - ins exceeded 60,000, driving new car sales of 8.8 billion yuan; consumers bought 3.56 million household appliances, driving sales of 11.9 billion yuan; and bought 2.42 million digital products, driving sales of 6.4 billion yuan [2] - **China - US Economic Relations**: Chinese Ambassador to the US Xie Feng pointed out that China - US economic and trade cooperation is generally balanced and win - win. Imposing tariffs harms both sides, disrupts business operations and people's consumption, and causes fluctuations in the global financial market [2] VI. Industry Information - **Data Infrastructure**: The National Data Bureau will increase central financial investment to support the construction of data infrastructure projects, use ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds, and accelerate the formulation of the national data infrastructure plan [2] - **Digital China Summit**: The 8th Digital China Construction Summit ended. It signed 455 digital economy key projects with a total investment of 228 billion yuan, an increase of 8% and 12% respectively compared with the previous summit [2] - **Housing Provident Fund**: The Kunming Housing Provident Fund Management Center in Yunnan Province adjusted the maximum housing provident fund loan amount from 500,000 yuan for single - contributor families and 800,000 yuan for double - contributor families to 700,000 yuan and 1 million yuan respectively [2] - **Banking Promotion**: During the May Day consumption season, many banks launched time - limited promotions for large - value credit cards and standby funds, and a new round of consumer loan interest rate discounts was launched, with some banks' consumer loan interest rates dropping to a minimum of 3% [2]

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2506 | TS2509 | TF2506 | TF2509 | T2506 | T2509 | TL2506 | TL2509 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.366 | 102.628 | 106.100 | 106.385 | 109.000 | 109.145 | 120.76 | 121 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.332 | 102.592 | 106.070 | 106.345 | 109.120 | 109.245 | 120.98 | 121.24 | | | 涨跌 | 0.034 | 0.036 | 0.030 | 0.040 | -0.120 | -0.100 | -0.220 | -0.240 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.03% | 0 ...

| | 20250425申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 短期可能宽幅波动 | | | | 锌： 可能宽幅区间波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 可能短期震荡 | | | | 镍： 可能宽幅震荡 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价 ，考验冶炼产量。 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动电力投资 | | | 铜 | 高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新能源渗透率提升有望巩固 | 短期可能宽 | | | 汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美国关税谈 | 幅波动 | | | 判进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨超1%。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来 | | | 锌 | 看，国内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电表现良好，地产数据降幅缩 窄。市场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复，前期锌价的回落 | 可能宽幅区 间波动 | | | 已部分消化产量增长预期。短期锌价可能宽幅波动，关注 ...

报告日期：2025 年 4 月 25 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：央行 MLF 操作，黄金强势依旧 中美没有就关税问题磋商或谈判，更谈不上达成协议。据新华网，有记者问：近 来美方不断有消息称，中美之间正在谈判，甚至将会达成协议。你能否证实双方 有没有开始谈判？外交部发言人郭嘉昆说，这些都是假消息。"据我了解，中美 双方并没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判，更谈不上达成协议。"特朗普考虑对华 关税分级方案。央视网援引《华尔街日报》报道，美方高级官员透露，特朗普政 府正考虑多种方案。中国央行 25 日将开展 6000 亿元 MLF 操作，将实现净投放 5000 亿。本月有 1000 亿元 MLF 到期，在 4 月 25 日进行 6000 亿元 MLF 操作后， 将实现净投放 5000 亿元。3 月央行超量续作 MLF，实现净投放 630 亿元，是 2024 年 7 月以来 MLF 首次净投放，展现了适度宽松的货币政策取向。 重点品种：原油、贵金属、集运指数 原油：SC 上涨 1%。有消息援引哈萨克新任命的能源部长的话说，在决定石油产 量水平时，哈萨克斯坦将优先考虑国家利益，而非欧佩克及其减产同盟国的利益。 他还表 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold prices have stabilized and rebounded. Fed officials have signaled potential rate cuts in June if there is clear evidence of the economic direction. Amid trade war disturbances, issues such as financial market turmoil, increased recession risks, de - dollarization, and US debt have become more prominent, causing gold prices to continuously reach new historical highs. Given the US debt pressure and the clear stagflation situation this year, gold remains strong overall but faces short - term adjustment pressure due to Trump's softened attitude and overbought conditions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2506 and沪金2512 are 796.46 and 801.52 respectively, with daily increases of 4.26 and 4.32, and daily increase rates of 0.54%. The current prices of沪银2506 and沪银2512 are 8320.00 and 8383.00 respectively, with daily increases of 24.00 and 20.00, and daily increase rates of 0.29% and 0.24% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest of沪金2506 is 173030, and the trading volume is 1125865; the open interest of沪金2512 is 48336, and the trading volume is 47246. The open interest of沪银2506 is 321717, and the trading volume is 1098950; the open interest of沪银2512 is 104462, and the trading volume is 41908 [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, and London Gold (in dollars per ounce) were 793.25, 784.67, and 3347.95 respectively, with daily increases of 7.12, 14.20, and 60.01, and daily increase rates of 0.91%, 1.84%, and 1.83%. The previous day's closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 8295.00, with a daily increase of 104.00 and a daily increase rate of 1.27%. The previous day's closing price of London Silver (in dollars per ounce) was 33.57, with a daily increase of 0.01 and a daily increase rate of 0.04% [2]. Inventory - **Changes**: The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold is 15,648 kg, unchanged from the previous day; the current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver is 914,191 kg, an increase of 1,405 kg from the previous day. The current COMEX gold inventory is 42,634,144, a decrease of 169,137.20 from the previous day; the current COMEX silver inventory is 496,891,266, an increase of 193011 from the previous day [2]. Related Assets - **Price Changes**: The current value of the US dollar index is 99.2880, a decrease of 0.62% from the previous day; the current value of the Standard & Poor's Index is 5484.77, an increase of 2.03% from the previous day; the current US Treasury yield is 4.4, a decrease of 0.23% from the previous day; the current price of Brent crude oil is 65.6, an increase of 0.01% from the previous day; the current US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.2879, an increase of 0.01% from the previous day [2]. Derivatives - **Position Changes**: The current position of the spdr Gold ETF is 44315 tons, an increase of 1.00 ton from the previous day; the current position of the SLV Silver ETF is 44315 tons, an increase of 1.00 ton from the previous day. The current net position of CFTC speculators in silver is 33486, an increase of 481 from the previous day; the current net position of CFTC speculators in gold is 32895, a decrease of 1451 from the previous day [2]. Macroeconomic Information - **US Economic Data**: In April, US tariff revenue surged by more than 60%, reaching at least $15 billion, setting a new monthly record. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 222,000, in line with expectations. The previous value was revised from 215,000 to 216,000. The US durable goods orders in March increased by 9.2% month - on - month, far exceeding the expected increase of 2.0%. The previous value was revised from an increase of 1.0% to an increase of 0.9% [2]. - **Fed Officials' Statements**: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated on Thursday that the Fed has basically ruled out a rate cut in May. However, she also signaled that there is room for policy action in June if there is clear evidence of the economic direction [2].