| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | TS2512 | TS2603 | TF2512 | TF2603 | T2512 | T2603 | TL2512 | TL2603 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.396 | 102.348 | 105.585 | 105.505 | 107.865 | 107.585 | 116.06 | 115.72 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.394 | 102.360 | 105.590 | 105.510 | 107.950 | 107.685 | 116.35 | 116 | | | 涨跌 | 0.002 | -0.012 | -0.005 | -0.005 | -0.085 | -0.100 | -0.290 | -0. ...

20250909申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 摘要 | 铜： 可能短期区间波动 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅偏弱波动 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收低。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润承压，但冶炼产量延 续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力行业延续正增长，光伏抢装同比陡 | | | 铜 | 增，未来增速可能放缓；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲 | 可能短期区 间波动 | | | 弱。多空因素交织，铜价可能区间波动。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需求 | | | | 等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收低。锌精矿加工费总体回升，冶炼利润转正，冶炼产量有望 | | | | 持续回升。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存周度增加。基建投资累计增速小幅正增 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | 长，汽车产销正增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。短期供求差异可 | 幅偏弱波动 | | | 能向过剩倾斜，锌价可能区间偏弱波动。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下游需 | | | | 求等变化。 | | | | 分析师：李野 | | | | 从业资格号：F0 ...

| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | 2025/9/9 | 星期二 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | | | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | IF当月 | IF下月 | IF下季 | IF隔季 | | | | | | | | 前两日收盘价 | 4456.60 | 4452.80 | 4434.00 | 4419.20 | 前日收盘价 | 4453.00 | 4445.80 | 4424.40 | 4407.20 | | | 涨跌 | 2.40 | -0.40 | -2.80 | -3.00 | 沪深300 | 涨跌幅 | 0.05 | ...

20250909申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 多家机构经济学家预测，美国劳工统计局即将公布的基准修正，可能会将就业人数大幅下调近 80万人，这将是该数据连续第二年出现显著修正。野村证券、美国银行和加拿大皇家银行的预 测则更为悲观，认为下修幅度可能接近100万。 | | | | linxj@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50586279 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪金2510 | 沪金2512 | 沪银2510 | 沪银2512 | | | | 现价 | 829.26 | 831.90 | 9858.00 | 9880.00 | | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 822.86 | 825.18 | 9813.00 | 9835.00 | | | 货 | 涨跌 | 6.40 | 6.72 | 45.00 | 45.00 | | | 市 | | | | | | | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.78% | 0.81% | 0.46% | 0.46% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 129838 | 203546 | 232496 ...

报告日期：2025 年 9 月 8 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：黄金闪亮，原油暗淡 周五美国 8 月非农新增就业 2.2 万大幅低于预期，失业率 4.3%创近四年新高， 非农报告几乎确定 9 月降息。特朗普调整全球关税政策，黄金、钨、铀等关键商 品获豁免。 美日关税协议细节披露：日本投资 5500 亿美元，特朗普决定投向，"长期 90% 利润"归美国。日本首相石破茂决定辞职。中国 7 月外汇储备规模环比上涨 0.91%， 央行连续第 10 个月增持黄金。深圳市楼市罗湖等多区放开限购，非深户可买两 套；限购区域大幅放宽，限购人群历史性放宽。 重点品种：黄金、股指、原油 黄金：金银继续维持强势。上周公布的多项数据显示美国经济就业市场疲弱，尤 其是上周五公布的非农就业 2.2 万人，大幅低于低于市场预期的 7.5 万人，提前 确认 9 月降息前景，进一步推升金银。此外，特朗普试图解雇美联储理事，挑战 美联储独立性的行为令市场感到不安。贸易谈判呈现多方进展，但整体贸易环境 恶化，大而美法案落地继续推升美国财政赤字预期，中国央行持续增持黄金，黄 金方面长期驱动仍然有支撑。金银整体或在降息临近以及特朗普干预美联储独 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, and it is in a policy window period. More incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year to boost the real economy. External risks are gradually easing, and the increasing probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September further enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets [2]. - The current market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but investors need to adapt to the accelerating sector rotation and structural differentiation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which have more technology - growth components, are more offensive, with larger fluctuations but potentially higher returns. The SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices, which have more dividend - blue - chip components, are more defensive, with smaller fluctuations but relatively weaker price elasticity [2]. - Since July, the stock index has been rising continuously with a large increase. There are signs of short - term adjustment, but the probability of the medium - and long - term market continuation is high [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (including current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) decreased compared to the day before. The price declines were - 83.40, - 84.80, - 81.20, and - 79.40 respectively, with corresponding decline rates of - 1.88%, - 1.92%, - 1.84%, and - 1.81%. The trading volumes were 133914.00, 8218.00, 57395.00, and 15256.00 respectively, and the open interests increased by 6959.00, 915.00, 3261.00, and 1301.00 respectively [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts decreased. The price declines were - 44.40, - 43.80, - 44.80, and - 45.00 respectively, with decline rates of - 1.51%, - 1.49%, - 1.52%, and - 1.53%. The trading volumes were 65727.00, 5056.00, 24358.00, and 6289.00 respectively, and the open interests increased by 4043.00, 826.00, 2463.00, and 1652.00 respectively [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts declined. The price declines were - 165.00, - 164.60, - 167.00, and - 169.20 respectively, with decline rates of - 2.42%, - 2.44%, - 2.51%, and - 2.60%. The trading volumes were 113276.00, 8055.00, 55486.00, and 17262.00 respectively, and the open interests increased by 9697.00, 1664.00, 2409.00, and 2562.00 respectively [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts decreased. The price declines were - 158.40, - 151.60, - 154.20, and - 147.40 respectively, with decline rates of - 2.21%, - 2.14%, - 2.22%, and - 2.17%. The trading volumes were 239398.00, 15491.00, 98940.00, and 29410.00 respectively. The open interest of the current - month contract decreased by 1649.00, while those of the next - month, next - quarter, and far - quarter contracts increased by 1824.00, 3861.00, and 1460.00 respectively [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Index Performance**: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices decreased compared to the day before, with decline rates of - 2.12%, - 1.71%, - 2.48%, and - 2.30% respectively. The trading volumes and total trading amounts of these indices also changed [1]. - **Industry Performance**: Different industries in the CSI 300 index showed various trends. The energy, raw materials, industry, optional consumption, major consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, information technology, telecommunications, and public utilities industries had different decline or increase rates, with the telecommunications industry having a significant decline rate of - 9.13% and the public utilities industry having a slight increase rate of 0.40% [1]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - For the CSI 300, the basis differences between IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, far - quarter) and the CSI 300 index changed compared to the day before [1]. - For the SSE 50, the basis differences between IH contracts and the SSE 50 index also changed [1]. - For the CSI 500, the basis differences between IC contracts and the CSI 500 index changed [1]. - For the CSI 1000, the basis differences between IM contracts and the CSI 1000 index changed [1]. 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indices - Domestic indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index decreased compared to the day before, with decline rates of - 1.25%, - 2.83%, - 2.37%, and - 4.25% respectively [1]. - Overseas indices such as the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index had different performance, with the Hang Seng Index declining by - 1.12% and the Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index increasing by 1.53%, 0.83%, and 0.74% respectively [1]. 3.5 Macro Information - The Ministry of Commerce announced China's first anti - circumvention investigation ruling, deciding to implement anti - circumvention measures on US exporters from September 4 [2]. - President Xi Jinping held talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong - un, emphasizing China's support for North Korea's development path and its objective and fair stance on the Korean Peninsula issue [2]. - The General Office of the State Council issued an opinion on releasing sports consumption potential and promoting the high - quality development of the sports industry, aiming to cultivate world - influential sports enterprises and events and achieve a total industry scale of over 7 trillion yuan by 2030 [2]. - Two departments issued an action plan for stabilizing the growth of the electronic information manufacturing industry, with the expected average growth rate of the added value of scale - above computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries at about 7% from 2025 - 2026, and the average annual revenue growth rate of the electronic information manufacturing industry exceeding 5% including related fields [2]. - Shanghai launched the "Keyan" Return Plan (pilot), providing 50,000 yuan in subsidies to eligible female scientific and technological talents after childbirth [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - From January to July, China's renewable energy added 283 million kilowatts of installed capacity, with a total installed capacity of 2.171 billion kilowatts, accounting for nearly 60% of the country's total installed capacity. Efforts will be made to promote the development of new models and formats of renewable energy [2]. - In September, the housing supply in 28 cities increased by 10% month - on - month due to the traditional marketing peak season. The supply in first - tier cities rebounded significantly, while that in second - tier cities remained flat month - on - month but halved year - on - year with intensified internal differentiation. The supply in third - and fourth - tier cities increased both month - on - month and year - on - year due to the influence of individual cities such as Wuxi [2]. - The Securities Association of China launched the 2025 single - business quality evaluation work for securities companies' investment banking, bond business, and major asset restructuring financial advisory business, requiring relevant evaluation materials to be submitted by September 15 [2]. 3.7 Stock Index Views - The three major US indices rose, while the stock index continued to correct in the previous trading day, with the communication sector leading the decline. The market turnover was 2.58 trillion yuan. On September 2, the margin trading balance increased by 1.548 billion yuan to 2.273914 trillion yuan [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations due to the combination of tight concentrate supply, high smelting output, and mixed downstream demand [2]. - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range weak fluctuations as the supply - demand balance may tilt towards surplus, with factors like rising smelting output and certain downstream demand trends [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Content Copper - **Market Situation**: Night - session copper prices closed lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, yet smelting output continues to grow. Downstream, the power industry shows positive growth, but future growth may slow; auto production and sales are positive; home appliance output growth is slowing; and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - **Price Outlook**: Copper prices may fluctuate within a range. Key factors to watch include the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Zinc - **Market Situation**: Night - session zinc prices closed lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, leading to positive smelting profits and expected continuous growth in smelting output. Galvanized sheet inventory has increased weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - **Price Outlook**: Zinc prices may have wide - range weak fluctuations in the short term. Attention should be paid to the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data | Metal | Domestic Previous - Day Futures Closing Price (Yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (Yuan/ton) | Previous - Day LME 3 - Month Futures Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium/Discount (CASH - 3M, USD/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 79,800 | 135 | 9,898 | - 67.16 | 158,575 | - 200 | | Aluminum | 20,620 | - 10 | 2,590 | 3.51 | 479,600 | 0 | | Zinc | 22,100 | - 65 | 2,838 | 16.21 | 55,225 | - 375 | | Nickel | 120,650 | - 1,030 | 15,236 | - 179.22 | 214,230 | 3,996 | | Lead | 16,805 | - 125 | 1,986 | - 44.77 | 254,550 | - 3,475 | | Tin | 271,820 | 1,850 | 34,425 | 97.50 | 2,195 | 20 | [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with various factors influencing different sectors. In the short - term, some commodities may experience fluctuations, while in the long - term, certain trends are expected to continue. For example, the stock index may have short - term adjustments but a high probability of long - term upward trends, and precious metals may show a relatively strong trend in the context of approaching interest rate cuts and external interference [11][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Main News on the Day - **International News**: The number of ADP employed in the US in August was 54,000, lower than the expected 65,000 and the previous value of 104,000 [5]. - **Domestic News**: The General Office of the State Council issued an opinion on releasing the potential of sports consumption and promoting the high - quality development of the sports industry, including increasing financial support [6]. - **Industry News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Action Plan for Stable Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026", with expected average growth rates for related industries and specific goals by 2026 [7]. b. Daily Gains of Overseas Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures dropped 1.24%, the US dollar index rose 0.21%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.76%, London gold spot decreased 0.22%, London silver dropped 0.83%, ICE No. 11 sugar fell 2.18%, ICE No. 2 cotton dropped 0.02%, CBOT soybeans fell 0.59%, CBOT soybean meal rose 1.34%, CBOT soybean oil fell 0.70%, CBOT wheat fell 0.89%, and CBOT corn rose 0.50% [8]. c. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: US stock indexes rose, while the previous trading day's stock index continued to correct. In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, and with the increasing probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September, the attractiveness of RMB assets is enhanced. The market is at the resonance of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but short - term adjustments are possible [10][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds showed mixed trends. The yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond fell to 1.746%. The market is affected by factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, economic data, and real - estate policies. The price of treasury bond futures has stabilized, but the stock - bond seesaw effect continues [12]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices fluctuated at night. Before the end of the US peak driving season, gasoline and distillate inventories decreased, but commercial crude oil inventories increased. Future attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 1.18% at night. Coastal methanol inventories increased significantly, and the overall device operating rate and the average operating rate of coal (methanol) to olefin devices both increased. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short - term [3][14]. - **Rubber**: Rubber fluctuated narrowly. The price is mainly supported by supply - side factors, but the demand side is weak. The short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures were in consolidation. The spot market is mainly affected by supply - demand fundamentals, and it remains to be seen whether the futures stop falling can drive the spot to stop falling [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures continued to be weak. The market is in the process of inventory digestion, and future attention should be paid to consumption in autumn and policy changes [17]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices fell after profit - taking. The market focuses on the non - farm payrolls data on Friday. Multiple factors affect the precious metals market, and gold and silver are expected to be strong in the context of approaching interest rate cuts and external interference [4][18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices closed lower at night. With multiple factors at play, copper prices may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices closed lower at night. The supply - demand situation may tilt towards surplus, and zinc prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment. Supply and demand both show certain changes, and the price may have a callback risk after a rapid rise. If inventory starts to decline, the price may rise further [21]. - **Black Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore remains supported, but the medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large. The market is expected to be strong and volatile in the future [22]. - **Steel**: The supply - side pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is in a short - term adjustment, and the trading logic focuses on fundamental changes [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke were strong at night. The market is affected by factors such as policy expectations, inventory changes, and demand seasons, and is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2][24]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: Protein meal fluctuated at night. The US soybean market has both positive and negative factors, and the domestic market is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short - term [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats were strong at night. The fundamentals of the palm oil market have limited changes, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate [26]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory accumulation stage, with a weak trend expected. The domestic sugar market has both supporting and dragging factors, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the weak trend of the international market in the short - term [27]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices rose slightly. The domestic cotton market has a relatively tight supply in the short - term, and the market focuses on the new cotton purchase price. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [28]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index declined. The short - term market is affected by sentiment and expectations, with an expected volatile trend. The medium - term market may return to the game of off - season freight rates [29].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Polyolefin futures are trading in a consolidation mode. The spot market for linear LL has some price cuts by Sinopec, while for drawing PP, both Sinopec and PetroChina keep prices stable. The market enthusiasm has cooled, and the polyolefin spot market is mainly driven by supply - demand. Summer maintenance is in balance, and inventory is being slowly digested. The polyolefin spot prices are generally weak at the beginning of the month, and whether the stop - fall in the futures market can drive the spot market to stop falling remains to be seen [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7225, 7220, and 7170 respectively, with price drops of - 22, - 20, and - 15 and declines of - 0.30%, - 0.28%, and - 0.21% compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 235618, 5386, and 212, and the open interests were 502560, 31934, and 8450 with changes of 12101, 382, and - 77 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 5, 50, and - 55, compared to previous values of 7, 55, and - 62 [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6939, 6949, and 6828 respectively, with price drops of - 15, - 16, and - 32 and declines of - 0.22%, - 0.23%, and - 0.47% compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 207771, 5643, and 396, and the open interests were 595380, 45582, and 5316 with changes of 15647, 379, and - 273 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 10, 121, and - 111, compared to previous values of - 11, 105, and - 94 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film are 2381 yuan/ton, 6605 yuan/ton, 587 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2385 yuan/ton, 6630 yuan/ton, 589 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Market**: For LL, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets are 7200 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7350 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous prices of 8100 - 8250 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 7150 - 7450 yuan/ton. For PP, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets are 6800 - 6950 yuan/ton, 6750 - 6950 yuan/ton, and 6750 - 7050 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous prices of 7400 - 7750 yuan/ton, 6800 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6800 - 6950 yuan/ton [2]. Oil Price Information - On Thursday (September 4, 2025), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.48 per barrel, down $0.49 or 0.77% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.72 - $63.84. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.99 per barrel, down $0.61 or 0.90% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $66.35 - $67.41 [2].

20250905申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 美国司法部已对美联储理事库克展开刑事调查，并发出传票。随着美国总统特朗普试图对美联 储施加影响并推动降息，投资者对美联储独立性的担忧日益加剧。摩根大通团队表示，投资者 正在为潜在的通胀上升做准备。高盛分析师认为，对美联储信誉的"日益担忧"正在引发"重 大尾部风险"。 白宫表示，美国总统特朗普签署行政命令，正式实施美日贸易协定。据悉，该行政令将明确关 税调整措施，确保此前已征收较高关税的日本进口产品不会被双重征税，而此前税率低于15%的 商品将调整至新税率。此外，白宫表示，日本正致力于加快落实将美国大米采购量增加75%的计 划。 美国7月贸易逆差环比飙升32.5%至783亿美元，高于市场预期的757亿美元，创四个月新高。7月 进口总额激增5.9%至3588亿美元，出口总额小幅增长0.3%至2805亿美元。 黄金收敛突破后，获利回吐价格回落。市场聚焦周五非农就业数据。美国职位空缺数量减少 17.6万个，降至718.1万个，低于预期的737.8万。上周特朗普试图解雇美联储理事，挑战美联 储独立性的行为令市场感到不安。美国地质勘探局提议将白银等六种矿产纳入2025年关键矿 ...