| 指标 | CNF到岸价: | | | 申万期货品种策略日报- | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 马来西亚棕 榈油:连续 | | 2026/2/9 | 油脂油料 | | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | | 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；交易咨询号:Z0019570） | | | | | | | | lijy@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | 棕榈油主力 | 菜油主力 | 豆粕主力 | 菜粕主力 | 花生主力 | | | 前日收盘价 | 8102 | 9026 | 9144 | 2735 | 2342 | 8844 | | 国 | 涨跌 | -2 | -16 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 26 | | 内 | 涨跌幅(%) | -0.02% | -0.18% | -3.15% | 0.15% | 0.39% | 0.29% | | 期 | 价差 | Y9-1 | P9-1 | OI9-1 | Y-P09 | OI-Y09 | OI-P09 | | 货 | 现 ...

20260209申万期货品种策略日报-双焦(JI&J) | 申银万国期货研究所 沈击奉 (从业编号F03148029 交易咨询号Z0022842) | shenvb@sywggh. con. cn 021-50582113 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11.0 | 13 | 1月 | 5月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | 9 H | | | | | | | | | | 前1日收盘价 | 1217.5 | 1390.5 | 1138.5 | 1860.0 | 1698.5 | 1769.0 | 前2日收盘价 | 1172.0 | 1888. 0 | 1738.0 | 1804. 0 | 1414.0 | 1248.0 | | | | 涨跌 | -23.5 | -33.5 | EF | -30. 5 | -28.0 | -39.5 | -35.0 | 煮跌幅 | સ્ત | -2. ...

| | | | | 20260209申万期货品种策略日报-软商品 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 黄莹(执业编号：F03148260；投资咨询编号：Z0022869） | | | | | | | | huangying@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 白糖2609 | 白糖2605 | 白糖2603 | 11号糖2603 | 11号糖2607 | 11号糖2605 | | | 前日收盘价 | 5239 | 5228 | 5242 | 14.14 | 13.73 | 14.07 | | | 前2日收盘 价 | 5227 | 5224 | 5243 | 14.27 | 13.84 | 14.15 | | 期 | 涨跌 | 12 | 4 | -1 | -0.13 | -0.11 | -0.08 | | 货 | 涨跌幅% | 0.23 | 0.08 | -0.02 | -0.91 | -0.79 | -0.57 | | 市 | 持仓量 | 117083 | 44690 ...

申万期货品种策略日报-天胶 | | 申银万国期货研究所 倪梦雪 （从业编号F0264569 投资咨询号Z0002226） | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | nimx@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586042 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 价差 | | | | | | | | | | | RU主力 | NR主力 | BR主力 | | RU-NR | RU-BR | NR-BR | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 16080 | 13050 | 12845 | 现值 | 3030 | 3235 | 205 | | 货 | 前2日收盘价 | 16175 | 13135 | 12925 | 前值 | 3040 | 3250 | 210 | | 市 | 涨跌 涨跌幅 | -95 -0.59% | -85 -0.65% | -80 -0.62% | 涨跌 | -10 | -15 基差 | -5 | | 场 | | | | | | | | | | | 成交量 | 229543 | 5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core View - Precious metals rebounded after a significant shock, mainly influenced by the nomination of the Fed chair and fund stampede. The nomination of Kevin Warsh, a traditional hawk, cooled the expectation of interest rate cuts and led to a rebound in the US dollar index. A large number of funds took profits. In the long run, the supporting factors for the upward movement of gold have not reversed. After the market is fully adjusted and new positive factors accumulate, gold is expected to return to a steady upward channel. Due to the higher volatility of silver and the relatively low gold - silver ratio, investors are advised to wait and see [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 decreased by 1.48% and 1.41% respectively, and those of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 decreased by 7.93% and 7.19% respectively compared with the previous day [2] - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 are 84,618 and 163,840 respectively, and the trading volumes are 126,031 and 494,742 respectively. The positions of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 are 128,060 and 227,163 respectively, and the trading volumes are 597,736 and 1,291,544 respectively [2] - **Spot Premium and Discount**: The spot premium and discount of Shanghai Gold 2606 is - 1.23, and that of Shanghai Gold 2604 is 1.37. The spot premium and discount of Shanghai Silver 2606 is 253, and that of Shanghai Silver 2604 is - 602 [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D decreased by 1.30%, and the closing price of London Gold increased by 3.98%. The closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D decreased by 8.49%, and the closing price of London Silver increased by 9.70% [2] - **Price Ratios**: The current value of Shanghai Gold 2606 - Shanghai Gold 2604 is 2.60, and the current value of Shanghai Silver 2606 - Shanghai Silver 2604 is - 855.00. The current value of the gold - silver ratio (spot) is 59.98, the ratio of Shanghai Gold to London Gold is 0.98, and the ratio of Shanghai Silver to London Silver is 1.05 [2] Inventory - **Changes**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold remained unchanged at 104,052 kilograms, and the inventory of silver decreased by 62,559 kilograms to 349,900 kilograms. The COMEX gold inventory decreased by 121,403 ounces to 35,370,105 ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 3,498,075 ounces to 394,511,408 ounces [2] Related Derivatives - **Positions and Changes**: The position of SPDR Gold ETF decreased by 2 tons to 1,076 tons, and the position of SLV Silver ETF decreased by 56 tons to 16,191 tons. The net position of CFTC speculators in gold decreased by 39,792 to 165,604, and the net position in silver increased by 2,174 to 25,877 [2] Macro Information - **Political News**: The scandal of Peter Mandelson's appointment as the British Ambassador to Washington has put pressure on Prime Minister Starmer. His chief of staff Morgan McSweeney resigned, and there are speculations about Starmer's possible resignation. In the Japanese House of Representatives election, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party won a majority of seats [3] - **Market Trends**: The yen continued its recent decline in the Asian trading session on Monday. The market is concerned about the design and communication of fiscal policies. The US Treasury Secretary believes that gold is in a typical speculative selling market and does not expect the Fed to take rapid action on the balance - sheet issue [3]

| 五、宏观信息 | | | --- | --- | | 春节长假将至，多家券商研究所发布关于春节行情的研判观点。"持股过节"是机构主流建议，其理由既来自对历史"春节效应"的复盘，也基于对当前经济 | | | 预期、流动性环境及风险偏好的综合评估。多家券商认为，节前要注重均衡与防御，节后聚焦成长与产业趋势。 | | | 本周全球市场大事不断！国内方面，中国1月CPI、PPI将于2月11日公布；新增贷款、社融等信贷数据有望出炉；2025年第四季度恒生指数系列检讨结果将于2 | | | 月13日公布；科技巨头春节红包大战持续。国际方面，延迟公布的美国1月非农就业和通胀数据重磅来袭；美国与伊朗拟进行新一轮谈判；戛纳世界人工智能 | | | 峰会将于2月12日举办。财报方面，麦当劳、可口可乐、中芯国际、网易等将披露最新财报。 | | | 特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克表示，未来3年内，太空将成为部署AI最具经济性的地点。马斯克认为，未来"仿真数字人类"将远超人类数量。在此背景 | | | 下，控制AI不是重点，当务之急是确保其价值观与人类文明延续目标一致。今年年内或实现AI对人类能力的全面数字化模拟，这将彻底改变许多行 ...

2026年02月09日 申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯 | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | sunxm@sywgqh.com.cn | | 021-50585921 | | | | | | pt2606 | pt2608 | pt2610 | pd2606 | pd2608 | pd2610 | | | 现价 | 506.00 | 498.55 | 491.60 | 410.50 | 408.45 | 405.55 | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 540.30 | 536.90 | 531.40 | 442.70 | 435.65 | 424.30 | | 货 | 涨跌 | -42.85 | -47.45 | -42.25 | -26.75 | -26.25 | -17.60 | | 市 场 | 涨跌幅 | -7.81% | -8.69% | -7.91% | -6.12% | -6.04% | -4.16% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a table indicating the investment rating possibilities for various varieties, including "cautiously bearish" and "cautiously bullish" assessments [6]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes multiple key financial and commodity markets, including precious metals, crude oil, and stock indices. It suggests that the long - term upward trend of gold remains intact despite recent volatility. The stock market is expected to continue its short - term positive trend in February, but potential risks from overseas markets during the Spring Festival need to be watched. For other markets, it provides detailed analyses of supply - demand relationships, price trends, and influencing factors [2][4][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Main News Focus - **International News**: The European Central Bank maintained its benchmark interest rate, pausing rate cuts for the fifth consecutive time since June last year. It did not signal the next policy direction, strengthening the market's expectation of a stable monetary policy. Officials are monitoring the impact of the euro's appreciation on export competitiveness and inflation [7]. - **Domestic News**: Eight departments jointly issued an implementation plan for the high - quality development of the traditional Chinese medicine industry, aiming to achieve certain goals by 2030, such as cultivating high - standard raw material bases and new large - scale Chinese patent medicines [8]. - **Industry News**: In January, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, indicating an expansion of logistics business, with key sub - indices in the expansion range [9]. 3.2 Daily Earnings of Overseas Markets - The report presents the daily earnings of various overseas market indices and commodities on February 4th and 5th, including the S&P 500, European STOXX50, and others. Most showed declines, except for the US dollar index and some commodities like CBOT soybeans [10]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Indices**: US stock indices declined. The A - share market also fell, with the beauty and care sector leading the gain and the non - ferrous metal sector leading the loss. The stock market's positive trend since 2026 is due to multiple factors. It is expected to continue its short - term positive trend in February, but potential risks from overseas markets during the Spring Festival need attention [4][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly, with the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond falling. The central bank's open - market operations and the expected "rate - cut and balance - sheet reduction" policy in the US, along with domestic economic data, have influenced the Treasury bond market [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell 0.73% at night. The US and Iran plan to hold nuclear - issue talks, but reaching an agreement is considered difficult. The strengthening US dollar and volatile precious metal prices have negatively affected the commodity market [3][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 1.46%. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants increased, as did the overall methanol plant operating rate. Coastal methanol inventories decreased slightly but were still at a relatively high level [15]. - **Natural Rubber**: Natural rubber futures declined. With domestic and some overseas production areas in different production states, and the inventory in Qingdao increasing, the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures mainly declined, with the market focusing on supply improvement expectations and macro - factors. The falling oil price also contributed to the cooling of the polyolefin market [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures mainly declined. Glass production enterprise inventories increased slightly, and soda ash inventories also rose. The supply - demand situation is gradually adjusting, and the future market depends on the real - estate and photovoltaic industries [18][19]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals fluctuated at night. Recent volatility was mainly due to the nomination of the Fed chair and capital stampede. In the long run, gold is expected to resume its upward trend, while investors are advised to wait and see for silver [2][20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose 0.15% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and downstream demand is mixed. Copper prices may enter an adjustment phase [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose 0.84% at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, and downstream demand is also mixed. Zinc prices may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals [22]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum fell 0.23% at night. Short - term spot - level upward drivers are limited, but long - term factors such as low inventory and stable demand provide support [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate main contract touched the daily limit down and then slightly recovered. The market has high attention, and downstream buyers are cautious. Supply and demand factors are complex, and a cautious short - selling view is maintained [24][25]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke main contracts fluctuated at night. Steel production and demand are in a seasonal off - peak, but import disruptions and pre - holiday restocking provide support [26]. - **Steel**: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival. The macro - environment is improving, and raw - material costs provide support. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand [27]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate. Shipping volumes and port inventories have changed, and steel mills will continue to purchase on - demand [28]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meals**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices fluctuated and rose at night. Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing, and the US - China soybean purchase plan affects the market. Domestic high inventories and sufficient supply expectations pressure prices [29]. - **Oils and Fats**: Bean and palm oils were weak, while rapeseed oil rose slightly. Malaysian palm oil exports are strong and production is falling, but market supply expectations affect prices [30][31]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated and were slightly stronger. With a seasonal supply increase and import pressure, prices are expected to remain low in the short term [32]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton futures maintained a volatile trend. With approaching Spring Festival, the market has a certain demand support, but import factors may limit price increases [33]. - **Hogs**: The hog market continued to be weak and volatile, with regional differences. The market is in a "price - decline and reluctance - to - sell" game, and pre - holiday prices are expected to adjust [34]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index rose 3.86%. Pre - holiday spot freight rates are expected to decline. The market has a large discount, and future price trends depend on factors such as the pre - April 1st export rush and shipping company price increases [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - SC night session for crude oil dropped 0.73%. Talks on the nuclear issue between the US and Iran are scheduled on the 6th in Muscat. In 2025, under Oman's mediation, a Middle - Eastern country and the US held multiple rounds of indirect talks but with core differences remaining unsolved. The US has asked Israel to avoid unilateral military actions during the talks, and Israel believes the possibility of an agreement is "extremely low". A stronger US dollar and volatile precious - metal prices have negatively affected the commodity market and overall risk sentiment [3]. - Methanol declined 1.46%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants is 80.61%, up 0.55 percentage points month - on - month. The overall CTO/MTO operation in China has increased due to the startup and load - increase of some eastern MTO plants. As of February 5th, the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants is 78.32%, up 0.76 percentage points month - on - month and 2.12 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Coastal methanol inventory is 139.5 tons (at a historically medium - high level), down 3.5 tons from January 29th, a decrease of 2.45% and 35.37% year - on - year. The estimated import arrivals from February 6th to 22nd are 580,000 - 590,000 tons [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume Information**: For crude oil futures, SC near - month had a previous - day closing price of 463.5, up 1.1 (0.24%) from the day before. WTI near - month closed at 64.47, up 0.57 (0.89%). Brent near - month closed at 67.82, up 1.51 (2.28%). In terms of volume, SC near - month had 97,941 contracts, WTI near - month 354,331, and Brent near - month 475,717. Regarding持仓量, SC near - month was 21,605, decreasing by 6074; WTI near - month was 348,001, decreasing by 9228; Brent near - month was 610,320, decreasing by 11107 [2]. - **Price Difference Information**: The current value of SC near - month minus SC next - month is - 3.7 yuan/barrel, and the previous value was - 4.0. The current value of SC near - month minus Brent near - month is - 7.1, and the previous value was 2.3 [2]. Spot Market - **International Market**: OPEC's basket of crude oil prices rose from 65.23 to 66.65, Brent DTD from 69.89 to 69.92, and Russian ESPD from 63.21 to 65.14 [2]. - **Domestic Market**: The wholesale price index of Chinese gasoline increased from 7,413 to 7,423 yuan/ton, and the wholesale price index of Chinese diesel decreased slightly from 6,098 to 6,096 yuan/ton [2].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the natural rubber futures trended downward. With domestic production areas in a state of suspension, and Thailand's northeastern region set to gradually halt production in January while its southern region is in peak season, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao continues to accumulate. In the short - term, the elasticity of the supply side weakens, and raw rubber prices remain relatively firm. The demand side supports stable production of all - steel tires. Synthetic rubber has seen a significant decline recently. It is expected that the natural rubber price will undergo oscillatory adjustments [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Price Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of RU, NR, and BR were 16175, 13135, and 12925 respectively, with price drops of - 210, - 165, and - 435 and percentage drops of - 1.28%, - 1.24%, and - 3.26% compared to two days ago. The spreads of RU - BR, NR - BR, and RU - NR were 3040, 3250, and 210 respectively with changes of - 45, 225, and 270 compared to the previous values [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of RU, NR, and BR were 283333, 62662, and 112386 respectively. The open interests were 12925, 50827, and - 684 respectively, with changes of - 435, - 544, and 10 [2] - **Basis**: The current basis of RU, mixed - RU, and smoke - sheet - RU were - 175, - 915, and 2125 respectively, compared to previous values of - 185, - 1260, and 2115 [2] Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Prices**: The current prices of whole - latex in Shandong, Shanghai, and Kunming were 15900, 16000, and 15800 respectively, with percentage drops of - 1.08%, - 0.93%, and - 1.23%. The prices of smoke - sheet in Shandong and Shanghai were 18300, with a percentage drop of - 1.08%. The prices of mixed rubber in Qingdao and Yunnan were 15260 and 15750 respectively, with a change of 0.89% and - 1.25% [2] - **Downstream Spot Prices**: The current prices of Thai smoke - sheet, Thai cup - lump, and Thai latex were 61, 53.52, and 59 (Thai baht/kg) respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.31%, 1.50%, and 0.34% [2]