Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. The overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, with demand steadily released. However, market sentiment is still affected by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market. In the short term, the self - valuation of polyolefins is at a low level, and the market may continue the low - level oscillation trend in the future [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Change**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6793, 6845, and 6880 respectively, with price increases of 23, 14, and 3 and percentage increases of 0.34%, 0.20%, and 0.04% respectively. For PP, the corresponding closing prices were 6372, 6474, and 6519, with price increases of 15, 0, and 2 and percentage increases of 0.24%, 0.00%, and 0.03% respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 334461, 107016, and 1244 respectively, and the open interests were 497429, 176591, and 2688 respectively, with open interest changes of - 15317, 25839, and 129 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes were 374416, 95707, and 1999 respectively, and the open interests were 605178, 183032, and 10073 respectively, with open interest changes of - 21657, 21079, and 206 respectively [2] - **Spread**: The current spreads of LL for January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 52, - 35, and 87 respectively, compared with previous values of - 61, - 46, and 107. For PP, the current spreads are - 102, - 45, and 147 respectively, compared with previous values of - 117, - 43, and 160 [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film are 2082 yuan/ton, 5925 yuan/ton, 561 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6160 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, with some price changes compared to the previous values [2] - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6900 - 7350 yuan/ton, 6800 - 7050 yuan/ton, and 7000 - 7400 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the ranges are 6250 - 6450 yuan/ton, 6150 - 6350 yuan/ton, and 6350 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively, with some price changes compared to the previous values [2] Consumption Information - On Monday (November 24), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.84 per barrel, up $0.78 or 1.34% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $57.42 - $59.06. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $63.37 per barrel, up $0.81 or 1.29% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.94 - $63.56 [2]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no specific investment rating provided for the industry in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of copper may be on the strong side, while the price of zinc may fluctuate within a certain range [2]. - For copper, the concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output continues to grow at a high rate. Power grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales grow positively, home appliance production scheduling shows negative growth, and the real - estate market remains weak. The mine accident in Indonesia is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, which will support copper prices in the long term [2]. - For zinc, the processing fee of zinc concentrate has declined, and the concentrate supply is in a stage of tightness, but smelting output continues to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales grow positively, home appliance production shows negative growth, and the real - estate market remains weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, and it may generally fluctuate within a range [2]. Group 3: Data Summaries Copper - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 86,030 yuan/ton, domestic basis: 65 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 10,782 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M): 24.88 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 155,025 tons, LME inventory daily change: - 2,900 tons [2] Aluminum - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 21,495 yuan/ton, domestic basis: - 10 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 2,813 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M): - 32.80 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 548,000 tons, LME inventory daily change: 3,925 tons [2] Zinc - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 22,380 yuan/ton, domestic basis: 25 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 3,003 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M): 140.20 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 47,325 tons, LME inventory daily change: 1,250 tons [2] Nickel - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 115,250 yuan/ton, domestic basis: - 3,700 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 14,730 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M): - 190.47 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 253,950 tons, LME inventory daily change: - 222 tons [2] Lead - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 17,200 yuan/ton, domestic basis: - 115 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 1,992 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M): - 28.49 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 262,850 tons, LME inventory daily change: - 1,800 tons [2] Tin - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 292,030 yuan/ton, domestic basis: 1,250 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 37,425 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M): 113.99 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 3,085 tons, LME inventory daily change: 20 tons [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures are trading at low levels. Although the overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is high and demand is steadily released, market sentiment is still affected by the weakness of crude oil and commodities as a whole. In the short term, the valuation of polyolefins is low, and the market may continue to fluctuate at low levels [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6835, 6883, and 6923 respectively, with price changes of 2, 0, and -2, and price change rates of 0.03%, 0.00%, and -0.03%. The trading volumes were 312525, 83531, and 370, and the open interests were 516737, 138934, and 2291, with open interest changes of -11929, 3573, and 39 [2] - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6400, 6513, and 6546 respectively, with price changes of -34, -19, and -18, and price change rates of -0.53%, -0.29%, and -0.27%. The trading volumes were 334339, 63404, and 1884, and the open interests were 617955, 161714, and 9736, with open interest changes of -2378, -1252, and 815 [2] - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are -48, -40, and 88 respectively; for PP, they are -113, -33, and 146 respectively [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film are 2023 yuan/ton, 5940 yuan/ton, 559 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6200 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Spot Market**: For LL, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6900 - 7400 yuan/ton, 6800 - 7050 yuan/ton, and 7000 - 7400 yuan/ton respectively; for PP, they are 6250 - 6500 yuan/ton, 6200 - 6450 yuan/ton, and 6400 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively [2] Market News - On Thursday (November 20), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for December 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $59.14 per barrel, down $0.30 or 0.50% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $58.86 - $60.33. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $63.38 per barrel, down $0.13 or 0.20% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.94 - $64.40 [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures are trading at low levels. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP are stable. Fundamentally, the overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, and demand is steadily released. However, market sentiment is still affected by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market. In the short term, the valuation of polyolefins is low, and the market may continue to fluctuate at low levels in the future [2] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6770, 6831, and 6877 respectively, with price drops of -65, -52, and -46 and declines of -0.95%, -0.76%, and -0.66%. The trading volumes were 244504, 77484, and 923, and the open interests were 512746, 150752, and 2559, with changes of -3991, 11818, and 268. The current spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January were -61, -46, and 107 [2] - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6357, 6474, and 6517 respectively, with price drops of -43, -39, and -29 and declines of -0.67%, -0.60%, and -0.44%. The trading volumes were 233476, 43286, and 1299, and the open interests were 626835, 161953, and 9867, with changes of 8880, 239, and 131. The current spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January were -117, -43, and 160 [2] Raw Material and Spot Market - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, and North China powder were 2021 yuan/ton, 5940 yuan/ton, 554 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, and 6180 yuan/ton respectively, with the price of agricultural film at 8700 yuan/ton [2] - **Midstream Spot**: The current prices of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6900 - 7350, 6800 - 7050, and 7000 - 7400 respectively. The current prices of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6250 - 6450, 6200 - 6450, and 6400 - 6550 respectively [2] News - On Friday (November 21), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.06 per barrel, down $0.94 or 1.59% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $57.38 - $58.80. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $62.56 per barrel, down $0.82 or 1.29% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.87 - $63.10 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may be on the stronger side, while zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [2] 3. Summary by Variety Copper - Night - time copper prices closed lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profit is at the break - even point, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales grow positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate sector remains weak. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand situation into a deficit, providing long - term support for copper prices. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventory is generally at a high level. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance output is in negative growth, and the real estate sector remains weak. The overall difference in zinc supply - demand is not obvious, and prices may fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] 4. Market Data Domestic Futures - Copper's previous closing price was 86,080 yuan/ton with a basis of 50 yuan/ton; aluminum was 21,495 yuan/ton with a basis of - 10 yuan/ton; zinc was 22,380 yuan/ton with a basis of 55 yuan/ton; nickel was 115,250 yuan/ton with a basis of - 3,150 yuan/ton; lead was 17,200 yuan/ton with a basis of - 140 yuan/ton; tin was 292,030 yuan/ton with a basis of - 460 yuan/ton [2] LME Market - Copper's LME 3 - month closing price was 10,686 dollars/ton with a spot premium of - 33.13 dollars/ton and inventory of 157,875 tons (a daily increase of 17,375 tons); aluminum was 2,807 dollars/ton with a spot premium of - 32.88 dollars/ton and inventory of 546,075 tons (a daily decrease of 2,000 tons); zinc was 3,004 dollars/ton with a spot premium of 152.14 dollars/ton and inventory of 45,075 tons (a daily increase of 1,550 tons); nickel was 14,455 dollars/ton with a spot premium of - 197.66 dollars/ton and inventory of 255,846 tons (a daily decrease of 1,986 tons); lead was 2,005 dollars/ton with a spot premium of - 27.39 dollars/ton and inventory of 264,475 tons (a daily decrease of 325 tons); tin was 37,035 dollars/ton with a spot premium of 100 dollars/ton and inventory of 3,115 tons (a daily increase of 60 tons) [2]

| | 1、据船运调查机构ITS数据显示，马来西亚11月1日至20日棕榈油出口量为831005吨，环比上月同 | | --- | --- | | | 期下降20.5%。2、据美国农业部(USDA)网站11月20日消息，民间出口商报告向中国出口销售 | | 行业 | 462000吨大豆和132000吨小麦，2025/2026市场年度付运。 | | 信息 | | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆菜粕偏强运行，usda供需报告下调25/26年度美豆单产预估至53蒲式耳/蒲,由此美 | | | 豆产量下降至42.53亿蒲，最终美豆期末库存预估为2.9亿蒲，9月报告预估为3亿蒲，产量和库存 | | | 均下降从数据上看为利多。但由于此前市场对于报告调整力度预期偏高，而实际报告数据利多不 | | | 足。但近期公布的数据来看，美豆压榨需求强劲，根据NOPA数据显示10月压榨大豆2.27亿蒲式 | | | 耳，较9月增长15.1%，较去年同期增长13.9%；但由于近期美豆期价上涨较多因此出现一定回调。 | | | 国内豆粕仍维持宽松格局，库存处于高位，预计连粕短期跟随美豆调整为主。 | | 评论 | 油脂：夜盘豆棕油偏弱运行，菜油震 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper may be on the stronger side, with weekend night - session copper prices closing higher. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output continues to grow. Grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, auto production and sales grow positively, home appliance production scheduling shows negative growth, and the real estate sector remains weak. An Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices [2]. - Zinc may fluctuate within a range, with weekend night - session zinc prices closing lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees are falling, and the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventories are generally at a high level. Infrastructure investment growth slows down, auto production and sales grow positively, home appliance production shows negative growth, and the real estate sector remains weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious [2]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table - **Copper**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 85,650 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 60 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 10,778 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 1.06 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 157,925 tons, and the daily change was 50 tons [2]. - **Aluminum**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 21,495 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 10 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,808 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 30.87 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 544,075 tons, and the daily change was - 2,000 tons [2]. - **Zinc**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,380 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 5 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,992 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 135.09 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 46,075 tons, and the daily change was 1,000 tons [2]. - **Nickel**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 115,250 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 3,020 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 14,620 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 184.81 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 254,172 tons, and the daily change was - 1,674 tons [2]. - **Lead**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,200 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 145 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,989 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 22.41 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 264,650 tons, and the daily change was 175 tons [2]. - **Tin**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 292,030 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 2,750 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 36,970 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 95.67 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 3,065 tons, and the daily change was - 50 tons [2].

Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - Short - term adjustments do not change the slow - bull trend of Chinese assets. Despite recent market corrections due to external factors, the "slow - bull" of Chinese assets is still expected under the support of domestic technology industries and "anti - involution" policies [1]. - In the economic situation with relatively large pressure, relevant incremental policies are still expected to be actively introduced, and the long - term and slow - paced bull market is likely to continue [2][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Chief Comment - Recent stock market corrections have led to a large amount of funds flowing into ETFs on the decline. From November 17th to 21st, the entire market's equity ETFs received a net inflow of over 70 billion yuan, with over 40 billion yuan flowing in on November 21st alone. External factors such as the decline in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the increasing concerns about the AI bubble are the main reasons for the market correction, but the "slow - bull" of Chinese assets remains promising [1]. 2. Key Varieties Index Futures - The three major US indices rebounded, while the index futures dropped significantly the previous trading day. The non - ferrous metals and power equipment sectors led the decline, with a market turnover of 1.98 trillion yuan. On November 20th, the margin trading balance decreased by 5.939 billion yuan to 2.474385 trillion yuan. The 15th Five - Year Plan still focuses on technological self - reliance, and the technology sector is expected to be the long - term direction. The "strong weights, weak growth" pattern since November is the result of short - term trading rhythms, event disturbances, and capital defense needs. If overseas technology performance materializes and small - cap stocks complete their supplementary declines, the market style may return to balance. However, before policy and liquidity signals become clearer, large - cap value stocks may still dominate in the short term. With the end of the year approaching, funds are more cautious, and the market style is more balanced compared to the third quarter [2][12]. Crude Oil - SC crude oil futures fell 1.46% at night. US trade sanctions on Russian oil companies and Lukoil will take effect on Friday, and Lukoil must sell its large international asset portfolio by December 13th. Ukrainian President Zelensky has received a peace plan draft for the Russia - Ukraine conflict from the US and is expected to discuss it with President Trump. The Fed's October policy meeting minutes showed a split among policymakers on the interest - rate cut last month. Despite warnings about inflation, they still decided to cut rates. The overall downward trend is hard to reverse [4][15]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke futures showed a volatile trend on the night of last Friday, and the coking coal positions continued to decline. Last week, the output of refined coal from sample mines was basically flat, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume rebounded rapidly, exceeding last year's level. The supply side has recovered. The demand side showed that the output of the five major steel products increased last week, mainly contributed by building materials. The overall inventory decreased significantly, with the largest de - stocking in rebar. The overall apparent demand improved. However, the expectation of a decline in hot metal production still exists, and the short - term futures price is expected to correct. Attention should be paid to the changes in coking coal supply, steel de - stocking speed, and hot metal production trends [3][22]. 3. Daily News International News - The 20th G20 Leaders' Summit closed in Johannesburg, South Africa. South African President Ramaphosa thanked all parties for their support during South Africa's presidency of the G20 and emphasized that the summit successfully adopted the Leaders' Declaration, reflecting the G20's determination to maintain multilateral cooperation and promote common development in difficult global situations [7]. Domestic News - Chinese Premier Li Qiang met with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Johannesburg. Li Qiang pointed out that developing a stable, sustainable, and high - quality comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Germany is in the fundamental interests of the two peoples. The two countries are important economic and trade partners, and the two governments should strengthen dialogue and communication to properly handle concerns. He hopes that Germany will adopt a rational and pragmatic policy towards China [8]. Industry News - Zhang Yuzhuo, Secretary of the Party Committee and Director of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, visited the headquarters of three central enterprises in Xiongan New Area. He said that the SASAC will support enterprises to stay, stabilize, and develop well in Xiongan. Enterprises should focus on their main responsibilities and businesses, strengthen innovation - driven development, and contribute to the high - standard and high - quality construction of Xiongan [9]. 4. Overseas Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500 rose 0.98% from 6,538.76 on November 20th to 6,602.99 on November 21st. The European STOXX 50 fell 0.40%, the FTSE China A50 futures dropped 2.66%, the US dollar index declined 0.07%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 1.08%, London gold spot decreased 0.30%, London silver dropped 1.29%, LME aluminum rose 0.05%, LME nickel increased 1.14%, ICE No. 11 sugar rose 0.61%, ICE No. 2 cotton increased 0.24%, CBOT soybean meal rose 0.66%, CBOT soybean oil fell 0.90%, CBOT wheat rose 0.18%, CBOT corn remained unchanged, LME zinc fell 0.38%, and CBOT soybeans rose 0.31% [11]. 5. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Index Futures**: Similar to the key varieties analysis, the long - term slow - bull trend is expected to continue [12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds fell slightly, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond rose to 1.812%. The central bank increased open - market operations this week, with a net injection of 43.4 billion yuan, an 800 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation, and an additional roll - over of 500 billion yuan. The Shibor short - term varieties declined, and the market liquidity eased. The US government ended the "shutdown", and the Fed's decision - makers were divided on the interest - rate cut in October. The current economic fundamentals are weak, and the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which is expected to support the treasury bond futures price. The main contract has shifted to the March 2026 contract [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The downward trend is hard to reverse due to sanctions, peace - plan news, and Fed's interest - rate cut decisions [15]. - **Methanol**: Methanol futures rose 0.5% at night. The average operating load of domestic coal - (methanol) to olefin plants increased, while the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants decreased slightly. The coastal methanol inventory decreased, but the expected import volume is large. Short - term methanol is expected to be weak [16]. - **Rubber**: Overseas rubber supply is increasing, while domestic supply will decrease as the domestic production area enters the off - season. The demand support is limited. The short - term price is expected to correct [17]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures are at a low level. The downstream demand is stable, but the market sentiment is affected by crude oil and the overall commodity weakness. The short - term valuation is low, and it is expected to continue the low - level oscillation [18]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures hit a low, with an increase in the inventory of glass production enterprises last week. Soda ash futures oscillated at a low level, with a decrease in the inventory of soda ash production enterprises. Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and the market is cautious. The short - term glass supply adjustment needs time, and the soda ash supply - demand digestion pressure increases [19]. Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, but the smelting output is growing. The demand in different sectors varies, and the Indonesian mine accident may lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, supporting copper prices in the long term [20]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, and the smelting output continued to grow. The demand in different sectors is mixed, and the zinc supply - demand difference is not obvious, with the price likely to fluctuate within a range [21]. Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Similar to the key varieties analysis, the short - term price is expected to correct [3][22]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Bean meal futures declined at night, while rapeseed meal was relatively strong. The USDA's supply - demand report showed a decrease in US soybean production and inventory, but the market expected more. The domestic bean meal supply is loose, and it is expected to adjust following the US soybean market [23]. - **Oils and Fats**: Rapeseed oil rose at night, while soybean and palm oils were weak. The MPOB report showed an increase in Malaysian palm oil production and exports, but the inventory continued to rise. The supply of rapeseed raw materials is increasing, and the bio - diesel demand is expected to weaken. The short - term oils and fats are expected to be weak [24]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to decline. The global sugar market is in a stocking phase, and the Brazilian sugar production is high. The domestic market follows the international trend, but the cost of the new domestic sugar - pressing season may support the price. The short - term Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak [26]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton futures were weak within a range. The Xinjiang cotton picking is almost over, and the market focus has returned to the supply - demand fundamentals. The downstream demand is weak, and the short - term price is expected to be weak [27]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fell 3.2% last Friday. The SCFI European line rate decreased, and the price cut by Maersk indicates that the price - support expectation in mid - November was false. Although there is an expectation of pre - Spring Festival rush in December and January, the current shipping companies' capacity control is limited, and the 02 - contract value is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to the follow - up price cuts of the OA Alliance [28].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core View - The market expects the stock index to continue its long - term and steady upward trend. The 14th Five - Year Plan focuses on technology, and the technology sector is a long - term direction. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, with residents likely to increase their allocation of equity assets, and external funds may flow in as the Fed cuts interest rates and the RMB appreciates. Near the end of the year, funds are relatively cautious, and the market style is more balanced compared to the third quarter [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) were 4583.40, 4565.20, 4532.20, and 4489.00 respectively, with increases of 23.40, 22.20, 20.00, and 21.20, and increases of 0.51%, 0.49%, 0.44%, and 0.47% respectively. The trading volumes were 25910.00, 76820.00, 14405.00, and 5478.00, and the open interests were 29702.00, 156324.00, 67558.00, and 18583.00, with changes of - 3947.00, - 2502.00, - 388.00, and 316.00 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 3018.00, 3011.00, 3006.40, and 2996.20 respectively, with increases of 17.40, 16.60, 15.60, and 13.60, and increases of 0.58%, 0.55%, 0.52%, and 0.46% respectively. The trading volumes were 8705.00, 36365.00, 6657.00, and 1812.00, and the open interests were 9339.00, 61909.00, 18559.00, and 5430.00, with changes of - 1795.00, - 1076.00, 283.00, and 134.00 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 7116.60, 7054.80, 6875.40, and 6664.00 respectively, with changes of - 15.60, - 1.60, 0.40, and - 9.60, and changes of - 0.22%, - 0.02%, 0.01%, and - 0.14% respectively. The trading volumes were 24997.00, 83682.00, 17690.00, and 6223.00, and the open interests were 21873.00, 141911.00, 61676.00, and 23052.00, with changes of - 9350.00, 2214.00, 1590.00, and 39.00 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 7390.40, 7298.20, 7068.80, and 6838.60 respectively, with changes of - 38.60, - 31.00, - 26.60, and - 28.20, and changes of - 0.52%, - 0.42%, - 0.37%, and - 0.41% respectively. The trading volumes were 37059.00, 149890.00, 27892.00, and 12626.00, and the open interests were 34672.00, 201080.00, 85839.00, and 42548.00, with changes of - 10135.00, 11495.00, - 716.00, and 1475.00 respectively [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM were - 18.20, - 7.00, - 61.80, and - 92.20 respectively, compared to previous values of - 14.60, - 6.00, - 73.00, and - 93.80 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 4588.29, 3020.35, 7122.75, and 7387.21 respectively, with changes of 0.44%, 0.58%, - 0.40%, and - 0.82% respectively. The trading volumes (in billions of shares) were 172.92, 48.20, 162.79, and 238.39, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 3852.30, 995.51, 2567.55, and 3671.73 [1] - **CSI 300 Industry Indexes**: The previous day's values of different CSI 300 industry indexes showed various changes. For example, the energy, raw materials, and telecommunications sectors had increases of 2.48%, 2.54%, and 1.08% respectively, while the main consumption, pharmaceutical, and IT sectors had decreases of - 0.33%, - 0.65%, and - 0.60% respectively [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - **CSI 300 Basis**: The previous day's basis values of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) relative to the CSI 300 were - 4.89, - 23.09, - 56.09, and - 99.29 respectively [1] - **SSE 50 Basis**: The previous day's basis values of IH contracts relative to the SSE 50 were - 2.35, - 9.35, - 13.95, and - 24.15 respectively [1] - **CSI 500 Basis**: The previous day's basis values of IC contracts relative to the CSI 500 were - 6.15, - 67.95, - 247.35, and - 458.75 respectively [1] - **CSI 1000 Basis**: The previous day's basis values of IM contracts relative to the CSI 1000 were 3.19, - 89.01, - 318.41, and - 548.61 respectively [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's values of the SSE Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, SME Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3946.74, 13080.09, 7943.55, and 3076.85 respectively, with changes of 0.18%, 0.00%, - 0.18%, and 0.25% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 25830.65, 48702.98, 6642.16, and 23204.14 respectively, with changes of - 0.38%, - 3.22%, 0.38%, and 0.13% respectively [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - **China - Japan Relations**: China has notified Japan of the suspension of Japanese aquatic product imports. Japan's wrong remarks on Taiwan have damaged the political foundation of China - Japan relations, and China will take counter - measures if necessary [2] - **Domestic Policies**: Deputy Premier Zhang Guoqing emphasized the digital and intelligent transformation of the manufacturing industry and the innovation and development of state - owned enterprises. The National Immigration Administration has expanded the number of ports issuing one - time Taiwan Resident Permits to 100. Russia will implement a visa - free policy for Chinese citizens soon. The Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region has signed a cooperation plan for the entire industrial chain of free trade zones [2] 6. Industry Information - **Real Estate**: The cumulative sales volume of second - hand homes in key cities increased slightly in the first 10 months of this year, with market activity declining in October. The sales volume in November is expected to recover month - on - month but face pressure year - on - year, and prices may continue to adjust [2] - **Organic Silicon**: The organic silicon industry is discussing production cuts, which are expected to be implemented gradually in early December [2] - **Vaccine Industry**: The China Vaccine Industry Association has issued an initiative against "involution - style" competition to maintain market price stability [2] - **Photovoltaic and Energy Storage**: The 8th China International Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Industry Conference issued the "Chengdu Declaration" to promote capacity structure optimization and industry self - regulation [2] - **Memory Market**: Due to a shortage of key chips, memory prices are expected to rise by about 50% by the second quarter of 2026, with traditional LPDDR4 at the highest risk of price increases [2] 7. Stock Index Views - **Market Performance**: The three major US indexes rose. The previous trading day saw a divergence in the stock index, with the non - ferrous metals and petrochemical sectors leading the gains and the comprehensive and real estate sectors leading the losses. The market trading volume was 1.74 trillion yuan. On November 18, the margin trading balance increased by 2.581 billion yuan to 2.484901 trillion yuan [2]

报告日期：2025 年 11 月 20 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：俄罗斯不计划主动减少石油产量 阿联酋富查伊拉石油工业区最新数据显示，截至 11 月 17 日当周，阿联酋富查伊 拉港的成品油总库存为 2065.2 万桶，较一周前减少 115.9 万桶。其中轻质馏分 油库存减少 56.2 万桶至 722.5 万桶，中质馏分油库存增加 17.6 万桶至 318.8 万 桶，重质残渣燃料油库存减少 77.3 万桶至 1023.9 万桶。俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表 示:俄罗斯 2025 年石油产量预测维持不变，为 5.1 亿吨。俄罗斯不计划主动减少 石油产量，将坚持欧佩克+协议。中金公司拟吸收合并东兴证券、信达证券，作 为代表国家意志的金融平台，汇金公司推动券商股整合是落实国家金融战略重要 举措。 重点品种：股指、原油、甲醇 股指：美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指分化，有色金属和石油石化板块 领涨，综合和房地产板块领跌，市场成交额 1.74 万亿元。资金方面，11 月 18 日融资余额增加 25.81 亿元至 24849.01 亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技 自立，预计科技板块是长期方向。资金面来看，国内流动性环境有 ...