| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2512 | TS2603 | TF2512 | TF2603 | T2512 | T2603 | TL2512 | TL2603 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.354 | 102.270 | 105.650 | 105.550 | 107.980 | 107.690 | 113.97 | 113.64 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.394 | 102.296 | 105.730 | 105.610 | 108.045 | 107.720 | 114.53 | 114.18 | | | 涨跌 | -0.040 | -0.026 | -0.080 | -0.060 | -0.065 | -0.030 | -0.560 | -0.540 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - For protein meals, the night - session of soybean and rapeseed meal weakened. The USDA quarterly inventory report had a neutral impact on the market. There is a high expectation of a reduction in US soybean yield in the upcoming USDA report due to poor weather since late August. However, the postponement of the October USDA report restrains market trading, and domestic supply sufficiency suppresses the market, so it is expected that the Dalian soybean meal will continue to fluctuate within a range [2] - For oils, the night - session of oils was weak. The MPOB report showed that the inventory accumulation was higher than expected, which may put short - term pressure on the oil market. But in the long - term, as Southeast Asian production areas enter the production - reduction season and there is support from international biodiesel for consumption demand, the price center of oils is expected to move up [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 8100, 9126, 9921, 2930, 2457, and 8844 respectively. The price changes were 14, 72, - 75, 2, - 35, and 26, and the percentage changes were 0.17%, 0.80%, - 3.15%, 0.07%, - 1.40%, and 0.29% respectively [1] - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current values of spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, Y - P09, OI - Y09, OI - P09, M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, M/RM09, Y/M09, Y - M09 are - 320, - 538, - 380, - 808, 1761, 953, - 74, 3, 458, 1.19, 2.72, 4924 respectively, with corresponding previous values [1] International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean oil, and CBOT soybean meal were 4299 (ringgit/ton), 1009 (cents/bushel), 50 (cents/pound), and 276 (dollars/ton) respectively. The price changes were - 84, - 4, - 0, - 1, and the percentage changes were - 1.92%, - 0.40%, - 0.14%, - 0.40% respectively [1] Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of domestic products such as Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil, etc. are 8310, 8430, 9130 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis and spreads of various products are provided, such as the basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 210, and the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is - 560 [1] Import and Profit - The current values of import profit for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, etc. are - 417, - 28 respectively, with corresponding previous values [1] Warehouse Receipts - The current values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 25534, 1500, 8057, 39055, 9245, 0 respectively, with corresponding previous values [1] Industry Information - As of October 5, soybean harvesting was 39% complete, higher than the same period in previous years. Analysts expect the net export sales volume of US 2025/26 soybeans in the week ending October 2 to be between 600,000 and 1.6 million tons [2] - From October 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 495,415 tons, a 19.37% increase compared to the same period last month [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Possibly bullish [2] - Zinc: Possibly fluctuating weakly in a wide range [2] Core View of the Report - Copper prices closed 0.7% lower overnight. Concentrate supply has been tight since the beginning of the year, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output has continued to grow at a high rate. Grid investment has continued positive growth, power supply investment has slowed down, automobile production and sales have shown positive growth, home appliance production scheduling has shown negative growth, and the real estate market has remained weak. The Indonesian mine accident will probably lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices [2]. - Zinc prices closed 1.25% lower overnight. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally rebounded, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory increased on a weekly basis. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment has slowed down, automobile production and sales have shown positive growth, home appliance production scheduling has shown negative growth, and the real estate market has remained weak. Short - term supply - demand differences may tilt towards oversupply, and zinc prices may fluctuate weakly in a range [2]. Summary by Related Catalog Copper - Overnight copper price dropped 0.7%. Since the beginning of the year, concentrate supply has been tight, but smelting output has grown rapidly. Grid investment grows positively, power supply investment slows, auto production and sales grow, home appliance production declines, and real estate is weak. The Indonesian mine accident may cause a global copper supply - demand gap, supporting copper prices in the long run. The strategy direction is possibly bullish [2]. Zinc - Overnight zinc price dropped 1.25%. Zinc concentrate processing fees rise, smelting profits turn positive, and output is expected to increase. Galvanized sheet inventory rises weekly. Infrastructure investment growth slows, auto production and sales grow, home appliance production declines, and real estate is weak. Short - term supply - demand may turn to oversupply, and zinc prices may fluctuate weakly. The strategy direction is possibly fluctuating weakly in a wide range [2]. Market Data - Copper: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 82,470 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 10 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 10,205 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 33.91 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 144,425 tons, and daily change is - 350 tons [2]. - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 20,755 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 10 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 2,649 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 3.80 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 515,925 tons, and daily change is - 1,225 tons [2]. - Zinc: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 21,950 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 95 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 2,887 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is 39.18 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 43,800 tons, and daily change is - 600 tons [2]. - Nickel: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 121,100 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 1,180 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 15,155 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 178.77 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 230,586 tons, and daily change is 0 tons [2]. - Lead: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 17,070 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 130 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 2,002 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 39.07 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 219,550 tons, and daily change is - 175 tons [2]. - Tin: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 273,600 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 840 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 34,415 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 48.22 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 2,740 tons, and daily change is 45 tons [2].

Key Points of the Report Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese capital market is in the initial stage of strategic allocation, with the 9 - month stock index in a high - level consolidation phase after continuous growth. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][12]. - For bonds, it is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and remain on the sidelines for short - term bonds, as the central bank's policy adjustment awaits central government deployment, and the equity market is strengthening [14]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the outlook for various products varies. For example, crude oil's future depends on OPEC's production increase; methanol is short - term bearish; rubber is expected to fluctuate within a range; and polyolefins may continue to oscillate in a low - level range [15][16][17][19]. - Regarding metals, copper is supported in the long - term due to potential supply shortages; zinc may fluctuate weakly in the short - term; and lithium carbonate may oscillate in the short - term with demand and inventory factors at play [21][22][23]. - In the agricultural product sector, protein meal may oscillate at a low level; some oils are showing signs of rebound; and cotton and sugar are expected to have complex short - term trends influenced by supply and demand [27][28][30][31]. - The shipping index of container shipping to Europe may be in a short - term oscillatory pattern, with the focus on shipping companies' price increases and capacity adjustment [32]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Macroeconomic Situation - From January to August, the total profit of Chinese industrial enterprises above designated size was 4.69297 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In August, the profit increased by 20.4% year - on - year, compared with a 1.5% decline in the previous month. The equipment manufacturing industry was a major driver, with 7 out of 8 sub - industries seeing profit growth [1]. - The US core PCE price index in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. Real consumer spending increased by 0.4% for the third consecutive month, exceeding the expected 0.2% [1]. 2. Key Varieties Analysis Financial - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices rose, while the previous trading day's stock index declined. The oil and petrochemical sector led the gain, and the computer sector led the decline, with a market turnover of 2.17 trillion yuan. On September 25, the margin trading balance increased by 13.288 billion yuan to 2.427411 trillion yuan [2][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank continued to inject medium - term liquidity, but the cross - festival capital tightened. The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in August increased significantly. The Fed restarted interest rate cuts, and the US GDP growth rate was revised up. It is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and remain on the sidelines for short - term bonds [13][14]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The SC night session rose 1.21%. Russia will impose a partial ban on diesel exports by the end of the year and extend the gasoline export ban. The global decline rate of oil and gas field production has accelerated. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3][15]. - **Methanol**: Methanol oscillated at night. The average operating load of domestic coal - to - olefin plants increased. Coastal methanol inventory decreased, but it is still at a historical high. Methanol is short - term bearish [16]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber futures oscillated. Supply in some areas improved, and bonded area inventory decreased. The start - up rate of all - steel tires increased. It is expected to continue to oscillate within a range [17]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins continued to rebound at night. The price generally fluctuated with the cost. It may continue to oscillate in a low - level range, with attention on demand and supply - side policies [18][19]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined. The short - term market supply and demand are slowly recovering, and attention is on the supply - side contraction. The inventory of glass and soda ash production enterprises decreased. The market has a positive expectation for the glass industry's supply change [4][20]. Metals - **Copper**: The copper price at night decreased by 0.7%. The concentrate supply has been tight, but the smelting output has been growing. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply shortage, supporting the long - term price [21]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price at night decreased by 1.25%. The zinc concentrate processing fee increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The short - term supply may be in surplus, and the price may fluctuate weakly [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand both increased, and inventory decreased. The bullish logic has been weakened, and the price may oscillate in the short - term [23]. - **Double Cokes**: The double - coke futures were weak at night. The steel fundamentals put pressure on coking coal, and investors are advised to operate cautiously before the holiday [24]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills' demand for iron ore is supported. Global iron ore shipments decreased, and port inventory decreased rapidly. The price is expected to be strong and oscillate [25]. - **Steel**: The steel supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The export of billets is strong. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar [26]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal were weak at night. Argentina temporarily cancelled export taxes, but the exemption period has ended. The domestic market may oscillate at a low level [27]. - **Oils**: The price of soybean oil declined slightly at night, while rapeseed and palm oil were strong. After the digestion of the negative news of Argentina's tax cancellation, the oil price rebounded [28]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in a stock - building stage, and the domestic market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory, but also dragged by import pressure. Zhengzhou sugar may oscillate after a rebound [30]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton market has supply pressure, and the domestic market is affected by the new cotton harvest. The price may oscillate weakly in the short - term [31]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC oscillated and declined on Friday. The SCFI European line price decreased. Shipping companies are trying to raise prices, and the contract may shift to the 12 - month contract. It is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern in the short - term [32]. 3. News Summaries - **International News**: Ukrainian drones attacked Russian refineries, causing fuel shortages in some Russian regions. Russia will impose a partial ban on diesel exports and extend the gasoline export ban [3][6][15]. - **Domestic News**: The "Super Golden Week" of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day is approaching. The tourism market is booming, with changes in travel patterns and consumer preferences [7]. - **Industry News**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs requires supporting Xinjiang to improve grain production capacity, promote cotton seed breeding, and develop characteristic industries [8][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The September trend of the stock index was more volatile compared to July and August, entering a high - level consolidation phase after continuous growth. Due to some funds' hedging needs at high levels after a long - term uptrend, there was a divergence in long - and short - term forces, leading to significant fluctuations in the stock index. However, in the medium - to long - term, China's capital market is just at the beginning of the strategic allocation period. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are mainly composed of technology growth stocks, are more aggressive with larger fluctuations and potentially higher returns. The SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices, which are dominated by dividend blue - chip stocks, are more defensive with smaller fluctuations but relatively weaker price elasticity [2]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (for different delivery months) decreased compared to the previous two days, with declines ranging from - 0.87% to - 1.16%. Trading volumes were 35095.00, 3254.00, 71448.00, and 11288.00 respectively, and the changes in open interest were - 2835.00, 367.00, - 3631.00, and - 350.00 [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices also declined, with decreases from - 0.43% to - 0.48%. Trading volumes were 15109.00, 966.00, 29241.00, and 2910.00 respectively, and the changes in open interest were 819.00, 301.00, 341.00, and - 420.00 [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The prices dropped by - 1.44% to - 1.48%. Trading volumes were 35918.00, 3743.00, 82089.00, and 14285.00 respectively, and the changes in open interest were - 1087.00, 841.00, 3028.00, and 583.00 [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The prices decreased by - 1.33% to - 1.47%. Trading volumes were 56703.00, 5684.00, 155277.00, and 25326.00 respectively, and the changes in open interest were 623.00, 1021.00, 8777.00, and 1116.00 [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts showed different changes compared to the previous values [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices all declined, with decreases of - 0.95%, - 0.40%, - 1.37%, and - 1.45% respectively. The trading volumes and total trading amounts also changed [1]. - **Industry Performance**: Different industries had different trends. Energy, main consumption, pharmaceutical and healthcare, etc. showed certain percentage changes in prices [1]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - The futures - spot basis of IF contracts (for different delivery months) compared to the CSI 300 index had different values on the previous day and the previous two days [1]. 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indices - **Domestic Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index all declined, with decreases of - 0.65%, - 1.76%, - 1.85%, and - 2.60% respectively [1]. - **Overseas Indices**: The Hang Seng Index declined by - 1.35%, while the Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index increased by 0.27%, 0.59%, and 0.87% respectively [1]. 3.5 Macro Information - The National Development and Reform Commission will implement practical measures to stimulate private investment. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the labor - age population still has scale advantages and demographic dividends. During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, small - passenger cars can pass toll - free on national highways, and the expected cross - regional passenger flow is 23.6 billion person - times, a 3.2% increase from last year. The 2025 Conference on Accelerating the Construction of a Transportation Power emphasized multiple transportation construction tasks. South Korea will implement a visa - free policy for Chinese group tourists from September 29 to next June 30, and the number of Chinese tourists to South Korea is expected to exceed 5 million this year [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - Eight departments issued a work plan for the non - ferrous metals industry, aiming for an average annual growth of about 5% in added value and 1.5% in the output of ten non - ferrous metals from 2025 - 2026. From January to August, the national transportation fixed - asset investment was 2.26 trillion yuan. The State Administration for Market Regulation issued regulations on food safety responsibilities of catering service chain enterprises. As of September 27, more than 470 policies to stabilize the real - estate market were introduced in about 200 cities (counties) [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - Amid the dual demand for funds during the quarter - end and holidays, the central bank has intensified liquidity injection. The bond market has shown mixed trends with some yields rising and falling. The Fed's entry into the interest - rate cut cycle expands the policy space for the domestic central bank, but policy adjustments await central unified deployment. With the equity market strengthening, bond futures prices fluctuate at low levels. It is recommended to maintain a short - term neutral stance on long - term bonds and stay on the sidelines for short - term bonds, while controlling risks before the holiday [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures prices generally rose. For example, the T2512 contract rose 0.07%. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts showed different changes, such as the open interest of T2512 decreasing [2] - **Arbitrage Opportunity**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - **Domestic Bond Yields**: The yields of key - term treasury bonds in China showed mixed trends. The 10Y treasury bond yield dropped 0.78bp to 1.88%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 42.06bp [2] - **Overseas Bond Yields**: The yields of key - term overseas treasury bonds also showed mixed trends. The 10Y US, German, and Japanese treasury bond yields rose by 2bp, 1bp, and 1bp respectively [2] Macro News - **Central Bank Liquidity**: The central bank carried out 1817 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on September 28, achieving a net injection. In the previous two days, it also made significant net injections through reverse repurchase and MLF operations [3] - **Private Investment**: The National Development and Reform Commission will implement practical measures to stimulate private investment [3] - **Population Statistics**: In 2024, the working - age population aged 16 - 59 was 857.98 million, accounting for 60.9% of the total population [3] - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank's monetary policy committee proposed to strengthen monetary policy regulation, maintain capital market stability, and support the real estate market [3] - **Real Estate Policy**: Since 2025, about 200 cities (counties) have introduced over 470 policies, and the fourth - quarter policies are expected to continue to stabilize the real estate market [3] - **Industrial Profits**: From January to August, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 4,692.97 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In August, the profits increased by 20.4% year - on - year [3] - **US Economic Data**: The US core PCE price index in August was in line with expectations, and consumer spending was strong, increasing the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut [3] Industry Information - **Money Market Rates**: On September 28, most money market rates in China showed mixed trends, with some rising and some falling [3] - **US Treasury Yields**: US Treasury yields showed mixed trends, with some maturities rising and some falling [3] Comment and Strategy - **Market Situation**: The central bank increased open - market operations last week, and the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size improved significantly in August. The Fed restarted interest - rate cuts, and US inflation remained stubborn [3] - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and stay on the sidelines for short - term bonds, while controlling risks before the holiday [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The polyolefin market continued to rebound overnight. In the medium - term, the market focuses on actual demand fulfillment and pre - holiday terminal stocking. Attention should also be paid to potential policy changes in the overall supply side in the fourth quarter in China. Due to the cost - driven nature, polyolefins may continue to oscillate in a low - level range [2][3]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7159, 7197, and 7225 respectively, with price drops of - 10, - 12, and - 6, and declines of - 0.14%, - 0.17%, and - 0.08% compared to two days ago. Trading volumes were 195523, 9491, and 39, and open interests were 554591, 46752, and 172, with changes of - 7269, 245, and 3 respectively. The current spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 38, - 28, and 66 [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6893, 6936, and 6908 respectively, with price drops of - 5, - 5, and - 6, and declines of - 0.07%, - 0.07%, and - 0.09% compared to two days ago. Trading volumes were 229349, 14353, and 521, and open interests were 609770, 78694, and 2230, with changes of - 18267, 1335, and 351 respectively. The current spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 43, 28, and 15 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and plastic film were 2358 yuan/ton, 6475 yuan/ton, 586 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6730 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of methanol futures and PP recycled materials remained unchanged, while Shandong propylene decreased by 10 yuan/ton, South China propane decreased by 3 dollars/ton, North China powder decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and plastic film remained unchanged [2]. - **Spot Market**: For LL, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7150 - 7600 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6700 - 6800 yuan/ton, 6650 - 6750 yuan/ton, and 6650 - 6850 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Consumption Information - On Friday (September 26), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $65.72 per barrel, up $0.74 or 1.14% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.66 - $66.42. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $70.13 per barrel, up $0.71 or 1.02% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $69.11 - $70.76 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish Outlook**: Crude oil, methanol, gold, silver, copper, iron ore, corn, lithium carbonate [6] - **Bearish Outlook**: Zinc, cotton, apple, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, stock index (IH, IF, IC, IM) [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The scale of China's public - offering funds has exceeded 36 trillion yuan, with bond funds slightly decreasing due to the stock - bond seesaw effect. The US GDP growth rate in Q2 was revised up, and the PCE price index indicated persistent inflation. The market's expectation of a rate cut in October has cooled [1]. - For the stock index, September was more volatile, in a high - level consolidation phase after continuous growth. The long - term strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][12]. - The SC crude oil rose slightly at night. Russia will ban diesel exports and extend the gasoline export ban. The global decline rate of oil and gas field production has accelerated. Future OPEC production increase should be monitored [3][14]. - The glass futures continued to rebound, and the supply - demand situation was slowly improving. The inventory of glass and soda ash was being digested. Attention should be paid to autumn consumption and policy changes [4][18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main News of the Day 3.1.1 International News - The US GDP in Q2 was revised up to an annualized quarter - on - quarter growth of 3.8%, and the core PCE price index was revised up to 2.6% [7]. 3.1.2 Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce included three US entities in the export control list and three Taiwan - related US entities in the unreliable entity list [8]. 3.1.3 Industry News - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed measures to control the expansion of copper smelting capacity, and relevant departments are studying regulatory measures [9]. 3.2 Daily Returns of External Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, London silver, ICE No. 11 sugar, CBOT soybeans, CBOT wheat, CBOT corn, and CBOT soybean oil all rose, while LME copper and CBOT soybean meal fell [11]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Financial Products - **Stock Index**: After the decline of US indices, the previous trading day's stock index rebounded. The financing balance increased. In the long - term, the strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has started [2][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded after hitting the bottom. The central bank continued to inject medium - term liquidity. The domestic economic situation was still in adjustment. With the Fed's rate cut, the central bank's policy space has increased, but policy adjustment needs central government deployment. It is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and neutral on short - term bonds [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose slightly at night. Russia restricted fuel exports, and the global decline rate of oil and gas field production accelerated. Future OPEC production increase should be monitored [3][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased, and the coastal inventory decreased. It is short - term bearish [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fell slightly. Supply may increase, the bonded area inventory decreased, and tire production increased. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins rebounded slightly. Prices follow the cost, and future demand and supply policies should be monitored. It may fluctuate within a low - level range [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures continued to rebound, and the supply - demand situation was slowly improving. The inventory of glass and soda ash decreased. Attention should be paid to autumn consumption and policy changes [4][18]. 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend paused. The Fed's rate - cut stance was cautious, but the rate - cut prospect was clear. The long - term driver for gold was still there, but there was short - term adjustment [20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell at night. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap, which will support copper prices in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose slightly at night. The smelting output may increase, and the short - term supply may be in surplus. It may fluctuate weakly within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Weekly production increased. Inventory was being digested rapidly. It may fluctuate in the short - term, and the actual situation of projects in Jiangxi should be monitored [23]. 3.3.4 Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - session prices were weak. The fundamentals of finished steel products improved, and the prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [25]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills resumed production, and iron ore demand was supported. Global iron ore shipments decreased, and port inventory decreased rapidly. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [26]. - **Steel**: The profitability of steel mills remained stable, and supply pressure increased. The supply - demand contradiction was not significant, and the market is expected to be bullish, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar [27]. 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Soybean meal fell at night, and rapeseed meal was strong. Argentina temporarily cancelled export taxes, but the exemption period ended early. Domestic soybean meal may fluctuate at a low level [28]. - **Edible Oils**: Edible oils were strong at night. The impact of floods in Malaysia on palm oil production was limited. After digesting the negative news of Argentina's tax cancellation, oil prices rebounded [29]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be weak, while domestic sugar prices are supported by low inventory but pressured by imports. Zhengzhou sugar may fluctuate after a rebound [30]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton prices rose slightly. International supply pressure still exists, and domestic new - cotton purchase is in focus. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [31]. 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC rebounded. Shipping companies signaled post - holiday price support, but success depends on cargo volume and capacity control. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [32].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefins rebounded narrowly. The prices of polyolefins generally fluctuate passively following the cost - end. In the medium - term, the market focuses on actual demand fulfillment and pre - holiday terminal stocking, and also needs to pay attention to potential policy changes in the overall supply side in the fourth quarter in China. Polyolefins may continue to oscillate in the low - level range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7169, 7209, and 7231 respectively, with price increases of 27, 27, and 13, and price increase rates of 0.38%, 0.38%, and 0.18%. The trading volumes were 167193, 10346, and 48, and the open interests were 561860, 46507, and 169, with open interest changes of - 9915, 1516, and 4 [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6898, 6941, and 6914 respectively, with price increases of 21, 21, and 4, and price increase rates of 0.31%, 0.30%, and 0.06%. The trading volumes were 166035, 9614, and 198, and the open interests were 628037, 77359, and 1879, with open interest changes of - 8467, 890, and 137 [2]. - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 40, - 22, and 62, compared with previous values of - 40, - 36, and 76. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 43, 27, and 16, compared with previous values of - 43, 10, and 33 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2358 yuan/ton, 6485 yuan/ton, 589 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6740 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Mid - stream Spot**: For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7150 - 7600 yuan/ton, 7050 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6700 - 6800 yuan/ton, 6700 - 6800 yuan/ton, and 6650 - 6850 yuan/ton [2]. News - On Thursday (September 25, 2025), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was 64.98 dollars per barrel, down 0.01 dollars or 0.02% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 64.06 - 65.34 dollars. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was 69.42 dollars per barrel, up 0.11 dollars or 0.16% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 68.42 - 69.68 dollars [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Likely to be strong [2] - Zinc: Likely to fluctuate weakly in a wide range [2] Group 2: Report Core Views - Copper prices may be supported in the long - term as the Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand situation into a deficit. Zinc prices may fluctuate weakly in the short - term as the supply - demand difference may tilt towards surplus [2] Group 3: Summary by Variety Copper - Night - time copper prices closed 0.4% lower. The supply of concentrates has been tight since the beginning of the year, but smelting output has continued to grow at a high rate. The power industry and automobile production and sales are growing positively, while the growth rate of home appliance output is slowing down, and the real estate market is weak. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand deficit and support copper prices in the long run. Suggest to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed up 0.02%. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally rebounded, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory has increased weekly. Infrastructure investment and automobile production and sales are growing positively, while the growth rate of home appliance output is slowing down, and the real estate market is weak. The short - term supply - demand difference may tilt towards surplus, and zinc prices may fluctuate weakly in a range. Suggest to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] Market Data - Copper: Domestic previous - day closing price is 82,660 yuan/ton, domestic basis is 40 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price is 10,276 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 31.55 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 144,775 tons, and daily change is - 200 tons [2] - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day closing price is 20,760 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 10 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price is 2,664 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 2.10 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 517,150 tons, and daily change is 3,300 tons [2] - Zinc: Domestic previous - day closing price is 22,030 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 105 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price is 2,923 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is 53.93 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 44,400 tons, and daily change is - 1,375 tons [2] - Nickel: Domestic previous - day closing price is 122,680 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 2,110 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price is 15,240 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 174.35 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 230,586 tons, and daily change is 132 tons [2] - Lead: Domestic previous - day closing price is 17,060 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 120 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price is 2,009 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 36.80 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 219,725 tons, and daily change is - 250 tons [2] - Tin: Domestic previous - day closing price is 273,710 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 2,040 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price is 34,390 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 50.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 2,695 tons, and daily change is 120 tons [2]