Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The polyolefin market is in narrow - range consolidation. The spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remain stable. The polyolefin consumption has entered a relative off - season, and the overall spot price performance is average. The disk price fluctuates more following the cost and market sentiment. With the cooling of the Middle East conflict and the decline of international oil prices, the cost support weakens. Polyolefin is gradually digesting selling pressure through sideways consolidation. Attention should be paid to the cooling of cost - end raw materials mainly based on crude oil and the reality of the seasonal demand off - season. The effectiveness of supply contraction during the summer equipment maintenance should be focused on [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Fluctuations**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7243, 7221, and 7282 respectively, with changes of - 19, - 27, and - 2 compared to the day before, and corresponding percentage changes of - 0.26%, - 0.37%, and - 0.03%. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7042, 7032, and 7078 respectively, with changes of 1, - 9, and 4 and percentage changes of 0.01%, - 0.13%, and 0.06%. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 44517, 180, and 301296 respectively, and the open interests were 106805, 1584, and 448681 respectively, with changes of - 5366, 54, and 4549. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 28869, 598, and 210061 respectively, and the open interests were 107738, 3668, and 414623 respectively, with changes of - 330, 481, and 4430. - **Spreads**: The current spreads for LL (January - May, May - September, September - January) were 22, - 61, and 39 respectively, compared to previous values of 14, - 36, and 22. For PP, the current spreads were 10, - 46, and 36 respectively, compared to previous values of 0, - 33, and 33 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2400 yuan/ton, 6575 yuan/ton, 558 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6980 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2415 yuan/ton, 6610 yuan/ton, 570 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6980 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton. - **Mid - stream Spot**: For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7750 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7600 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton, 7050 - 7150 yuan/ton, and 7100 - 7250 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Market News - The strong US employment market supports the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged. Investors are waiting for clarification on President Trump's plan to impose tariffs on multiple countries. It is expected that OPEC and its production - cut allies will further increase crude oil production in August, and international oil prices continue to decline cautiously. On July 4, 2025 (US Independence Day), there was no settlement price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange, but electronic trading was normal. The last trading price of the August 2025 futures electronic disk was 66.50 dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.50 dollars or 0.75% from the previous trading day's settlement price, with a trading range of 66.04 - 67.18 dollars. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was 68.30 dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.50 dollars or 0.73% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 67.75 - 68.89 dollars [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil prices are supported by a decline in production in Southeast Asian producing areas, and the US biodiesel policy is favorable to the demand outlook for US soybean oil, so it is expected that oils will mainly maintain high - level fluctuations. Pay attention to the MPOB report data this month [3] - Protein meal: Recently, US soybeans have strengthened due to factors such as the possible release of positive signals in Sino - US trade relations and US biofuel policies, driving the continuous meal to follow a relatively strong shock. However, the domestic supply - loose pattern will still put pressure on the upside space, and it is expected that the continuous meal will maintain a shock situation [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 7944, 8472, and 9607 respectively, with price changes of - 50, - 6, and - 12, and percentage changes of - 0.63%, - 0.07%, and - 3.15% respectively. The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 2954, 2458, and 8844 respectively, with price changes of - 4, - 2, and 26, and percentage changes of - 0.14%, - 0.08%, and 0.29% respectively [2] - **Spreads and Ratios**: There are various spread and ratio indicators for different varieties, such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, etc. The current values and previous values of these indicators are provided, showing certain changes [2] International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing price of BMD palm oil was 4032 ringgit/ton, with a price change of 22 and a percentage change of 0.55%. The previous day's closing price of CBOT soybeans was 1048 cents/bu, with a price change of 1 and a percentage change of 0.05%. The previous day's closing price of CBOT US soybean oil was 55 cents/lb, with a price change of - 1 and a percentage change of - 0.96%. The previous day's closing price of CBOT US soybean meal was 292 dollars/ton, with a price change of 2 and a percentage change of 0.58% [2] Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: Spot prices of various oils and meals are provided, such as Tianjin first - grade soybean oil at 8150, with a percentage change of - 0.73%, and Nantong soybean meal at 2800, with a percentage change of - 0.71% [2] - **Basis and Spreads**: Spot basis and spreads between different varieties are also given, such as the spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil being 206 and the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil being - 350 [2] Import Profit and Pressure - Import profit and pressure indicators for different imported varieties are presented, such as the current value of the near - month Malaysian palm oil being - 580, showing a change compared to the previous value [2] Warehouse Receipts - Current and previous values of warehouse receipts for various varieties like soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are provided, with some showing changes [2] Industry Information - Malaysia's palm oil production from June 1 - 30 is estimated to decrease by 4.69%, with different changes in different regions [3] - The global food price index in June increased by 0.5% compared to May, reaching an average of 128.0 points [3] - As of the week ending June 29, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, the flowering rate was 17%, and the pod - setting rate was 3% [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of gold and silver rebounded but showed hesitation in further upward movement. As the deadline for the tariff suspension approaches in July, the market is uneasy about policy uncertainties. The better - than - expected June non - farm payrolls data and the decline in the unemployment rate have cooled the expectation of an early interest rate cut by the Fed, putting pressure on gold and silver. The "Big and Beautiful" bill has raised expectations of fiscal deficits, leading to a weak dollar. Fed officials have indicated a wait - and - see stance, with conditions for rate cuts including lower inflation, weaker employment data, and clear trade policies. The impact of tariff policies shown in recent US data is smaller than feared, but it may increase as corporate inventories are depleted. The market may be paving the way for future easing, and if tariff policies become clear, the expectation of a rate cut will be further clarified, with a neutral expectation of a rate cut starting in September. Although the long - term drivers for gold still provide support, it is at a high price and shows hesitation in upward movement. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Gold Futures**: For沪金2508, the current price is 774.72, down 0.16 (-0.02%) from the previous close, with a trading volume of 53073 and an open interest of 93922. For沪金2512, the current price is 778.98, up 0.18 (0.02%), with a trading volume of 24526 and an open interest of 85287. The spread between沪金2512 and previous values is 4.26 (previous was 3.92). [2] - **Silver Futures**: For沪银2508, the current price is 8931.00, up 12.00 (0.13%), with a trading volume of 385997 and an open interest of 250718. For沪银2512, the current price is 8976.00, up 12.00 (0.13%), with a trading volume of 49501 and an open interest of 185262. The spread between沪银2512 and previous values is 45 (unchanged). [2] Spot Market - **Gold Spot**: London gold's previous closing price was 771.57, down 4.24 (-0.55%); Shanghai Gold T + D's previous closing price was 3336.94, up 10.855 (0.33%). The ratio of Shanghai gold to London gold is 7.49 (previous was 7.54). [2] - **Silver Spot**: London silver's previous closing price was 768.73, up 1.82 (0.24%); Shanghai Silver T + D's previous closing price was 8885.00, down 44.00 (-0.49%). The ratio of Shanghai silver to London silver is 7.19 (previous was 7.25). The gold - to - silver ratio (spot) is 86.84 (previous was 86.89). [2] Inventory - **Gold Inventory**: The上期所gold inventory is 21,456 kg (an increase of 3,000 kg from the previous value), and the COMEX gold inventory is 36,785,583 ounces (a decrease of 262,617.32 ounces from the previous value). [2] - **Silver Inventory**: The上期所silver inventory is 1,339,746 kg (a decrease of 1,046 kg from the previous value), and the COMEX silver inventory is 499,281,076 ounces (a decrease of 902370 ounces from the previous value). [2] Related Derivatives and Indexes - **ETF Holdings**: The spdr gold ETF holding is 44315 tons (an increase of 1 ton from the previous value), and the SLV silver ETF holding is 44315 tons (an increase of 1 ton from the previous value). [2] - **CFTC Speculators' Net Positions**: The CFTC speculators' net position in silver is 33486 (an increase of 481 from the previous value), and in gold is 32895 (a decrease of 1451 from the previous value). [2] - **Indexes**: The US dollar index is 96.9880 (up 0.22% from the previous value), the Standard & Poor's index is 6279.35 (up 0.83%), the US Treasury yield is 4.35 (up 1.16%), the Brent crude oil price is 68.51, and the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1701 (up 0.12%). [2] Macroeconomic Information - **US Trade Policy**: US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the final stage of trade negotiations is at a deadlock, and the next 72 hours will be very busy in trade negotiations. There may be several major announcements in the coming days. 100 smaller countries will get fixed tariff rates. The focus of trade negotiations is on 18 countries that account for 95% of the US trade deficit. The August 1 deadline has been stated in letters to countries, and if no agreement is reached by then, tariffs will return to April levels. [3] - **Russian Initiative**: Russian President Putin proposed at the 17th BRICS Leaders' Meeting to build an independent settlement and custody system on the BRICS platform and promote the expansion of local currency settlement. [3] - **US New Tariff**: US President Trump said on July 4 that the US government will start sending letters to trading partners to set new unilateral tariff rates, which may range from 10% - 20% to 60% - 70%, and the new tariffs will "most likely" take effect on August 1. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market as a whole shows signs of breaking through the previous consolidation and starting to break upward. It is recommended to go long on stock index futures and buy options on stock index options. In the medium - to - long - term, A - shares have a relatively high investment cost - performance ratio. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more supported by science and innovation policies, and their high growth potential may bring higher returns, while SSE 50 and CSI 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) increased, with the current month rising by 17.40 points (0.44%), the next month by 15.80 points (0.40%), the next quarter by 18.20 points (0.46%), and the far - quarter by 18.20 points (0.47%). The trading volumes were 43,577.00, 3,462.00, 66,892.00, and 12,076.00 respectively, and the open interests increased by 8,133.00, 1,295.00, 14,488.00, and 3,143.00 respectively [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts increased, with the current month rising by 16.40 points (0.61%), the next month by 15.60 points (0.58%), the next quarter by 16.80 points (0.62%), and the far - quarter by 15.80 points (0.59%). The trading volumes were 19,657.00, 2,008.00, 39,517.00, and 5,041.00 respectively, and the open interests increased by 6,144.00, 476.00, 9,229.00, and 1,249.00 respectively [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts mostly decreased, with the current month falling by 0.40 points (- 0.01%), the next month by 0.40 points (- 0.01%), the next quarter by 4.80 points (- 0.08%), and the far - quarter by 2.40 points (- 0.04%). The trading volumes were 43,750.00, 3,957.00, 40,420.00, and 11,157.00 respectively, and the open interests increased by 6,820.00, 1,471.00, 6,230.00, and 1,556.00 respectively [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts decreased, with the current month falling by 18.20 points (- 0.29%), the next month by 22.60 points (- 0.36%), the next quarter by 26.40 points (- 0.43%), and the far - quarter by 28.20 points (- 0.47%). The trading volumes were 67,153.00, 5,911.00, 151,899.00, and 25,317.00 respectively, and the open interests increased by 8,029.00, 840.00, 16,019.00, and 4,548.00 respectively [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed, for example, the current value of the IF next - month minus current - month spread was - 19.00 (previous value - 18.60) [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The CSI 300 index increased by 0.36%, the SSE 50 index by 0.58%, the CSI 500 index decreased by 0.19%, and the CSI 1000 index decreased by 0.48%. The trading volumes and total trading amounts of these indexes also changed [1]. - **Industry Indexes**: Among different industries, the energy industry increased by 0.54%, the raw materials industry decreased by 0.99%, the industrial industry increased by 0.18%, the optional consumer industry increased by 0.22%, the major consumer industry increased by 0.39%, the medical and health industry increased by 0.15%, the real estate and finance industry increased by 1.25%, the information technology industry decreased by 0.11%, the telecommunications business industry decreased by 0.48%, and the public utilities industry increased by 0.33% [1]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - The futures - spot basis of different contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM) relative to their corresponding spot indexes changed compared to the previous two days [1]. 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.32%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.25%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index decreased by 0.21%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.36% [1]. - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.64%, the Nikkei 225 increased by 0.06%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.83%, and the DAX index decreased by 0.61% [1]. 3.5 Macro Information - Premier Li Qiang will establish the China - BRICS New - Quality Productivity Research Center and set up the BRICS New Industry "Golden Egret" Excellence Scholarship [2]. - The "Procedures for the Administration of Program Trading" of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges came into effect on July 7, 2025, clarifying high - frequency trading standards and making differential regulatory arrangements [2]. - US Treasury Secretary Beisente said that the final stage of trade negotiations is at an impasse, and there may be several major announcements in the next few days. If an agreement is not reached by August 1, tariffs will return to the April level [2]. - Minister of Finance Lan Fuan attended the 2025 BRICS Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting, expressing China's willingness to deepen BRICS financial cooperation. The New Development Bank of BRICS approved Colombia and Uzbekistan as new members [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - Shenzhen introduced measures to promote the high - quality development of the semiconductor and integrated circuit industry and set up a 5 - billion - yuan "Semiconductor Industry Private Equity Fund" [2]. - As of now, the cumulative purchase of wheat nationwide has exceeded 50 million tons, and the expected purchase volume of summer grains in the new season is about 100 million tons, with about 85 million tons of wheat [2]. - By the end of the first half of the year, the total market value of public REITs exceeded 200 billion yuan. Most REITs products have achieved positive returns this year, and the Jiasheng Wumei Consumption REIT has risen by more than 50%. The industry's leading effect is gradually emerging [2]. - Guangdong issued a guiding opinion on resolving historical legacy issues in real estate registration on state - owned construction land, clarifying registration prohibitions [2].

| 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2509 | TS2512 | TF2509 | TF2512 | T2509 | T2512 | TL2509 | TL2512 | 昨日收盘价 | 102.514 | 102.644 | 106.255 | 106.365 | 109.105 | 109.180 | 121.13 | 121 | | | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.512 | 102.642 | 106.250 | 106.345 | 109.130 | 109.210 | 121.18 | 121.04 | 涨跌 | 0.002 | 0.002 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations due to the combination of low concentrate processing fees, low copper prices, and mixed downstream demand factors [1]. - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range fluctuations as the market expects improved concentrate supply and potential recovery in smelting supply, along with mixed downstream demand [1]. - Aluminum may have narrow - range oscillations. The aluminum market is affected by factors such as the high - level shock of alumina operating capacity, cost support, and changes in electrolytic aluminum ingot production and demand [1]. - Nickel prices may oscillate in the short term due to factors like tight nickel ore supply in Indonesia, new tariff policies, and mixed supply - demand situations in the nickel market [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices closed lower. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices are testing smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with the power industry growing positively, automobile production and sales increasing, home appliance output growth slowing, and the real estate sector remaining weak. Copper prices may range - bound fluctuate, and factors such as US tariff progress, the US dollar, copper smelting, and home appliance output should be monitored [1]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic automobile production and sales are growing positively, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. The market expects significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and potential recovery in smelting supply. Zinc prices may have wide - range fluctuations, and factors such as US tariff progress, the US dollar, zinc smelting, and home appliance output should be watched [1]. Aluminum - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum in the night session fell 0.17%. The strengthening of the Fed's easing expectation boosted the non - ferrous sector. Fundamentally, the operating capacity of alumina is oscillating at a high level, with sufficient spot supply, but cost support has emerged, leading to an oscillating situation in the alumina futures market. In the short term, the casting volume of electrolytic aluminum may decrease, demand may weaken, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots has increased month - on - month but remains at a low level. Shanghai aluminum may operate with high - level oscillations, and aluminum alloy futures may have narrow - range oscillations [1]. Nickel - The main contract of Shanghai nickel in the night session rose 0.86%. Nickel ore supply in Indonesia is still tight overall, and local demand for Philippine nickel ore has increased, driving up the price of Philippine nickel ore. New tariff policies in Indonesia may raise local nickel product prices. Precursor manufacturers have sufficient raw material inventories and low purchasing enthusiasm, and nickel salt enterprises have production - cut expectations, which may lead to a moderate increase in nickel salt prices. Stainless steel demand is in the traditional off - season, and prices are mainly oscillating. Fundamentally, there are both positive and negative factors in the nickel market, and nickel prices may oscillate [1]. Market Data | Variety | Domestic Previous - Day Futures Closing Price (Yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (Yuan/ton) | Previous - Day LME 3 - Month Futures Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium (CASH - 3M) (USD/ton) | LME Inventory (ton) | LME Inventory Daily Change (ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 80,780 | 65 | 9,952 | 87.61 | 93,250 | 2,000 | | Aluminum | 20,850 | - 30 | 2,606 | - 5.75 | 356,625 | 8,000 | | Zinc | 22,310 | 95 | 2,738 | - 21.99 | 113,425 | - 1,475 | | Nickel | 121,120 | - 1,690 | 15,355 | - 187.48 | 204,102 | 216 | | Lead | 17,145 | - 280 | 2,063 | - 26.47 | 268,150 | - 1,925 | | Tin | 268,270 | 1,040 | 33,805 | - 42.00 | 2,215 | - 5 | [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The U.S. Congress House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which will raise the federal government's statutory debt ceiling by $5 trillion and may increase the government budget deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade [1]. - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures down 0.71% and COMEX silver futures up 0.85%. The Fed's policy shift expectation and trade tensions support the gold price, but strong non - farm payroll data weakens the safe - haven demand [1]. - For major varieties, methanol is short - term bullish, glass is in a inventory - digestion cycle, and gold has long - term support but is hesitant to rise at high prices [2][3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Main News Focus International News - The U.S. Department of Commerce revoked the requirement for three major global chip design software suppliers to apply for government licenses for their business in China. Siemens fully restored Chinese customers' access to its software and technology, while Synopsys and Cadence are gradually restarting related services [5]. Domestic News - China and the EU held the 13th round of high - level strategic dialogue. Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that China and the EU should strengthen exchanges and cooperation. He also responded to the issue of China's rare - earth export control, stating that it should not be a problem between China and the EU [6]. Industry News - The State Council issued a document to replicate and promote 77 pilot measures of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, including 34 measures for other free trade zones and 43 measures for the whole country [7]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.83%, the European STOXX 50 rose 0.28%, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.98%, and the U.S. dollar index rose 0.35%. ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.43%, London gold spot fell 0.92%, and London silver rose 0.77%. Other commodities also had different price changes [9]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The U.S. three major indexes rose. The previous trading day, the stock index rebounded. The electronic sector led the rise, and the coal sector led the decline. The market turnover was 1.33 trillion yuan. It is recommended to be bullish on stock index futures and buy options on stock index options. A - shares have high investment value in the long - term [10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds showed mixed performance. The central bank's open - market operations at the beginning of the month were mainly net withdrawals, and the market liquidity was relatively loose. The U.S. economic data and policy changes affected the U.S. bond yield. The domestic economic situation supported the Treasury bond futures price [11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices fell slightly at night. The uncertainty of tariffs and the end of the 90 - day tariff suspension on July 9th raised concerns about economic impact and fuel demand. The U.S. labor market was healthy, and the number of U.S. online drilling oil wells decreased [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 0.88%. The average operating load of domestic coal - to - olefin (methanol) plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory increased. It is short - term bullish [2][14]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber futures fluctuated. The new rubber supply in producing areas was affected by weather, and the raw rubber price was supported. The inventory in Qingdao area fluctuated, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins traded in a narrow range. The consumption of polyolefins entered the off - season, and the cost support weakened. It is necessary to focus on the supply contraction effect during the summer device maintenance [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures did not continue the rebound, and the inventory decreased slightly. Soda ash futures fell, and the inventory increased. Both are in the inventory - digestion cycle, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand balance [17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metal prices fell. The better - than - expected U.S. non - farm employment data reduced the Fed's early - rate - cut expectation. Gold has long - term support but is hesitant to rise at high prices. Attention should be paid to policy uncertainties [18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices closed lower at night. The low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices tested smelting output. The domestic downstream demand was stable overall, and copper prices may fluctuate in a range [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices closed higher at night. The concentrate processing fees continued to rise. The domestic demand showed mixed performance, and zinc prices may fluctuate widely [20]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed down 0.17% at night. The Fed's easing expectation boosted the non - ferrous sector. The alumina market was in a complex situation, and the aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly. Shanghai aluminum may oscillate at a high level [21]. - **Nickel**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed up 0.86% at night. The nickel ore supply in Indonesia was tight, and the price of Philippine nickel ore rose. The nickel market had both bullish and bearish factors, and nickel prices may oscillate [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium ore price showed signs of stopping falling. The weekly output of lithium carbonate increased, and the inventory also increased. The lithium market is still in a weak situation [23][24]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore was supported by the strong production momentum of steel mills. The global iron ore shipment decreased recently, and the port inventory decreased rapidly. Iron ore prices may be supported in the short - term and weaken in the later period [25]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel gradually emerged, and the inventory continued to decrease. The steel export was affected by tariffs and anti - dumping, and the demand for both building materials and plates may weaken in the later period. The steel market may be in a weak and oscillating state [26]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Soybean and rapeseed meal futures rose at night. The U.S. soybean growth data was mixed, and the domestic oil - mill operation rate increased, which may lead to an increase in soybean meal inventory [27]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil futures were strongly oscillating at night, while soybean and rapeseed oil futures fell slightly. The Malaysian palm oil inventory, production, and export data showed different trends, and the oils and fats may continue to oscillate [28]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index oscillated, and the 08 contract rose 0.11%. The market's pessimistic expectation about the peak season of European routes was repaired, and the freight rate may be stable in the later period. Attention should be paid to the shipping companies' price - increase notices and macro - tariff factors [29].

| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 2025/7/4 | 星期五 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | | | | | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | | | | | | | | | IF当月 IF下月 | | | | | IF下季 IF隔季 | | | | 前两日收盘价 3921.00 3903.20 | | | | | 3894.20 3856.20 | | | | 前日收盘价 3946.60 3928.00 | | | | | 3918.00 3879.00 | | | | 涨跌 27.00 25.80 沪深300 | | | | | 26.20 24.80 | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Gold and silver prices declined due to better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls in June, which cooled the expectation of an early Fed rate cut. The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill is expected to increase the fiscal deficit, and the US dollar is weak. The Fed is maintaining a wait - and - see stance, with a neutral expectation of a rate cut starting in September. Gold has long - term support but is hesitant to rise at high prices. Caution is needed regarding the uncertainty of Trump's policies as the July tariff suspension deadline approaches [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For futures contracts, the prices of沪金2508,沪金2512,沪银2508, and沪银2512 decreased, with respective changes of - 5.92, - 5.80, - 28.00, - 27.00 and percentage changes of - 0.76%, - 0.74%, - 0.31%, - 0.30%. For example,沪金2508 is now at 773.00 compared to the previous close of 778.92 [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of different contracts vary. For instance, the open interest of沪金2508 is 98320 and its trading volume is 53873 [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, London Gold (in USD/oz), Shanghai Silver T + D, and London Silver (in USD/oz) have different changes. For example, the price of Shanghai Gold T + D increased by 5.48 with a change rate of 0.71%, while London Gold decreased by 6.09 with a change rate of - 0.79% [2]. Inventory - **Inventory Changes**: The inventories of gold and silver in different exchanges have changed. The上期所白银库存 increased by 2133.00 kg, while COMEX gold inventory decreased by 262,617.32 and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 902370 [2]. Related Derivatives - **ETF and Speculator Positions**: The positions of spdr gold ETF, SLV silver ETF, and CFTC speculators in gold and silver have changed. For example, the spdr gold ETF position increased by 1.00 ton, and the CFTC speculator net position in gold decreased by 1451 [2]. Macroeconomic Information - **Policy and Data**: The US House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which will increase the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion and may increase the budget deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade. The US will impose a 20% tariff on Vietnam, not in addition to the existing 10%. US non - farm payrolls in June increased by 147,000, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, and the initial jobless claims reached a six - week low. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September dropped to about 80%. The US May factory orders increased by 8.2% month - on - month [5].

研究局限性和风险提示 | | 20250703申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期区间波动 | | | 摘要 | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 铝： 可能短期内震荡 | | | | 镍： 可能短期内震荡 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增 | | | 铜 | 长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织， | 可能短期区 | | | 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | 间波动 | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。市 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | | | | | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波 动，关注美国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产量等因素变化。 | 幅波动 | ...