2025.05.06-05.09 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 中线行情分析 长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型分析螺纹钢期货主力合约2510 本周运行区间为3030至3180，建议关注3180一线的压力区间。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 目录 螺纹钢周度产量233万吨，表观消费量291万吨，主要钢厂库存173万 吨，社会库存694万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货价格日线级别处于下行通道中。 2 钢材现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 钢材现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略。 n 本周策略建议 现货客户可考虑在3150至3050区域分步实施卖出保值策略。 n 现货企业套期保值建议 钢材生产企业可考虑在3150至3050区域分步实施50%现货比 例的卖出保值策略。 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 本报告数据 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the soybean meal futures, the mid - line trend is in a wide - range oscillation. The current tight supply is due to slow recovery of oil mill operations and downstream stocking, but future supply is expected to increase. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. - For the soybean oil futures, the overall trend is in an interval oscillation. There is a temporary supply shortage before the holiday, but subsequent supply pressure will be released. It's also recommended to wait and see [34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soybean Meal Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation. In the 16th week, the oil mill's soybean actual crushing volume was 1315400 tons, with an operating rate of 36.98%. Soybean inventory increased by 17.58% to 4259100 tons, and the soybean meal inventory decreased by 56.80% to 125500 tons. The slow recovery of oil mill operations and downstream stocking led to a sharp reduction in inventory, but future supply is expected to increase. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean meal futures price was in a sideways oscillation, with more positive funds. M2509 was expected to continue wide - range oscillation in the range of 2950 - 3200, and interval operation was recommended [9]. - This week's strategy recommendation: The soybean meal futures price is in a sideways oscillation, with more negative funds. M2509 is expected to continue wide - range oscillation in the range of 2900 - 3100, and interval operation is recommended [10]. 3.1.3 Related Data Situation - Relevant data includes soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio [20][22][28]. 3.2 Soybean Oil Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean oil main contract continues an interval oscillation. In the 16th week, the actual output of 125 oil mills was 249900 tons, an increase of 63000 tons from last week. The commercial inventory in key regions decreased by 43500 tons to 650400 tons. Temporary supply shortage before the holiday and improved macro - sentiment, but future supply pressure will be released. It's recommended to wait and see [34]. 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean oil futures price was in a sideways consolidation, with more positive funds. Y2509 was expected to maintain interval oscillation in the range of 7500 - 8000, and interval operation was recommended [37]. - This week's strategy recommendation: The soybean oil futures price is in a sideways consolidation, with more negative funds. Y2509 is expected to maintain interval oscillation in the range of 7700 - 8100, and interval operation is recommended [38]. 3.2.3 Related Data Situation - Relevant data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, and trading volume [48][53].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Industrial silicon futures prices are in a weak downward trend due to delayed polysilicon production, concentrated maintenance of silicone devices leading to weaker demand, high social inventory of 270,000 tons, and high futures warehouse receipts of 200,000 tons. The price will continue to be under pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [6][7]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices are in a weak and volatile state. The spot market has an oversupply situation, and downstream manufacturers are mostly waiting and seeing, mainly purchasing raw materials for rigid demand. The price is under pressure to decline, and the pressure range for lithium carbonate 2507 is 71,000 - 72,000. It is recommended to wait and see [28][29][33]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - The price is in a weak downward trend. The demand is weakening marginally, and the inventory is at a historical high. The AI intelligent investment consultation shows the price is in a downward channel. It is recommended to wait and see [6][7]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week: The situation of weak supply and demand was difficult to change, and the price would continue to be under pressure. It was recommended to wait and see. - This week: Due to high inventory and weak demand, the price will continue to be under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Related Data Situation** - As of April 19, 2024, SHFE cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, and it was at a relatively high level compared to the past five years. - As of April 19, 2024, LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts was 25.73%. It was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [13][15]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - The price is in a weak and volatile state. The spot market has an oversupply, and the technical analysis shows it is in a downward channel. The price is under pressure, and the pressure range for lithium carbonate 2507 is 71,000 - 72,000 [28][29]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week: Lithium carbonate 2507 should focus on the operating range of 68,000 - 73,000, and a large - grid trading strategy could be considered. - This week: The pressure range for lithium carbonate 2507 is 71,000 - 72,000. It is recommended to wait and see [32][33]. - **Related Data Situation** - As of April 19, 2024, SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. - As of April 19, 2024, LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts was 66.03%. It was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [35][37].

2025.04.28-04.30 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 近期装置检修少，整体供应处于较高水平，预计本周开工90+%，产 量76+万吨。五月上旬，检修企业逐步增加，预期产量下降。临近 月底，企业接收新订单。纯碱需求维持，消费稳定，低价补库为主， 下游原材料库存增加趋势，据了解有下游采购量合适，价格相对低。 下月纯碱检修计划增加，市场情绪提振。上周浮法日熔量15.78万 吨，环比减少700吨，光伏日熔量9.73万吨，环比增加1200吨。本 周，浮法生产线一条线放水，产能6 0 0吨，光伏预期两条，产能 2050吨，近期光伏行情有转弱迹象，点火有可能推迟。综上所述， 纯碱走势震荡运行，价格波动收窄。 2 中线策略建议 3 建议观望 中线行情分析 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 纯碱产量维持高位徘徊，下游整体需求波动小，下游原材料 库存增加趋势，市场情绪偏弱，驱动不足，预计纯碱维 持震荡运行。预计主力合约纯碱2509预期运行区间1250- 14 ...

2025.04.21-04.25 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 黄金期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 沪金期货整体趋势处在上升通道中，当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 近日金价连创新高，由于贸易战局势愈发紧张，加之美元大跌，以及对 全球经济衰退的担扰，刺激黄金避险需求。中长期而言，黄金价格的上 涨是多重因子非线性叠加的结果，当前市场已进入"预期驱动"阶段。 需关注美联储政策路径、地缘冲突演变及央行购金节奏对价格波动的放 大效应。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 精选指标情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 黄金短期回调压力犹存，等待时机配置买入看涨期权。黄金主力 合约2506下方支撑：733—738。 n 本周策略建议 黄金短期回调压力犹存，等待时机配置买入看涨期权。黄金主力 合约2506下方支撑：778－785。 品种诊断情况 | 黄金(au) v 品种诊断 机构观点 | | 盈利席位 主力资金 : | | 黄金(au) v | | - ...

Group 1: Industrial Silicon Futures Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The industrial silicon futures price is in a weak downward trend, and the price will continue to be under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [7][8][11] Summary by Directory - **Mid - term Market Analysis**: As of April 18, 2025, the industrial silicon market showed a weak consolidation trend. Both futures and spot prices declined. Futures inventory slightly increased, and social inventory decreased. Supply and demand were both weak, and market sentiment was pessimistic. The AI intelligent investment consultation variety diagnosis report of Great Wall Futures showed that the daily line of industrial silicon prices was in a downward channel. It was recommended to wait and see as the price was seeking bottom support and would continue to be pressured [7][8] - **Variety Trading Strategy**: Last week, it was recommended to wait and see during the stage of shock seeking bottom support. This week, due to the difficult - to - change situation of weak supply and demand, the price will continue to be under pressure, and it is still recommended to wait and see [11] - **Related Data Situation**: As of April 19, 2024, the SHF cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, and was at a relatively high level compared to the past five years. The LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the注销仓单 (unregistered warehouse receipts) ratio was 25.73%, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. The multi - empty flow was - 8.9 with no obvious inclination, the capital energy was basically stable at 12.0 days, and the multi - empty divergence was 99.4 with high risk of market change [14][16][21] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Futures Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The lithium carbonate futures price runs in a weak oscillation. For the lithium carbonate 2507 contract, it is recommended to pay attention to the operating range of 68,000 - 73,000 and consider the large - grid trading strategy [29][30][33] Summary by Directory - **Mid - term Market Analysis**: As of April 18, 2025, the domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) market price was concentrated at 70,000 - 71,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 70,500 yuan/ton; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.0%) market price was concentrated at 68,500 - 69,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 69,000 yuan/ton. The upstream lithium salt plants had a weak buying sentiment and mainly digested inventory. Holders were reluctant to cut prices. Affected by Sino - US tariff issues, downstream demand was uncertain. The supply surplus in the lithium carbonate spot market still existed, and the supply - demand situation did not change significantly. Technically, the AI variety diagnosis report of Great Wall Futures showed that the daily line of lithium carbonate futures was basically in a downward channel. The operating range of lithium carbonate 2507 was 68,000 - 73,000 [29][30] - **Variety Trading Strategy**: Last week, it was suggested to wait and see as the lithium carbonate 2505 contract might further bottom out. This week, it is recommended to pay attention to the 68,000 - 73,000 operating range of lithium carbonate 2507 and consider the large - grid trading strategy [33] - **Related Data Situation**: As of April 19, 2024, the SHF electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. The LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the注销仓单 (unregistered warehouse receipts) ratio was 66.03%, also at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [35][39][41]

2025.04.21-04.25 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 下游整体需求波动小，有行业产能增加，消费提升。下游原材料库 存增加趋势，低价补库，维持正常库存。期现价格合适，有点价成 交。市场情绪偏弱，驱动不足。周内，浮法日熔量15.85万吨，环 比稳定，光伏日熔量9.61万吨，环比稳定。下周光伏生产线及浮法 稳定。预计纯碱维持震荡运行。 2 中线策略建议 3 中线行情分析 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 近期装置平稳运行，波动小，且暂无新增检修计划，产量预计持续 高位徘徊。测算下周产量预计76+万吨，开工率90+%。现货价格灵 活，有企业窄幅下跌。企业待发基本能维持到月底。 建议观望 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 纯碱上周弱势运行，整体开工维持在高位，需求表现一般， 仍以按需为主，成交气氛清淡。市场情绪较为谨慎，纯碱过 剩格局延续。预计主力合约纯碱2505预期运行区间1250-1400， 建议空仓观望。 n 本周策略建议 纯碱产量维持高位徘徊，下游整体需求波动小，下游原材 ...

2025.04.21-04.25 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于宽幅震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 n 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价趋势整体横盘震荡的阶段,资金方面较为偏空。中 美贸易摩擦升级不确定性的影响下，M2509预计延续宽幅震 荡，运行区间：2950-3200，可考虑区间操作。 n 本周策略建议 豆粕期价趋势整体横盘震荡的阶段,资金方面较为偏多。在供 应预期宽松及现货阶段性偏紧的影响下，M2509预计延续宽幅 震荡，运行区间：2950-3200，可考虑区间操作。 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第15周油厂大豆实际压榨量98.37万吨，开机率27.65%； 大豆库存362.24万吨，较上周增加71.81万吨，增幅24.73%；豆粕库存下 滑至29.05万吨，较上周减少28.86万吨，减幅49.84%。随着大豆通关加 速及油厂开机回升，豆粕供应压力即将得到缓解。巴西大豆收割接近尾 声，丰产预期逐步兑现，集中上市压力贴水有所下调。然而中美贸易摩 擦不断升级，下游饲料企业豆 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rebar futures, the AI intelligent model of Great Wall Futures shows that the main contract 2510 will operate in the range of 2900 - 3150 this week, and the pressure area at 3150 should be noted. The price is in a downward channel on the daily - line level, and the main force has a relatively obvious short - bias attitude. Spot customers can consider a selling hedging strategy [7]. - For iron ore futures, the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 670 - 730, and attention should be paid to the pressure at around 730. The daily line is in a downward channel, and spot customers can consider a selling hedging strategy [34]. 3. Summary by Directory Rebar Futures 3.1. Mid - line Market Analysis - The AI intelligent model of Great Wall Futures indicates that the main contract 2510 of rebar futures will operate in the range of 2900 - 3150 this week, and the pressure area at 3150 should be focused on. In the third week of April 2025, rebar production was 229000 tons, apparent consumption was 273000 tons, steel mill inventory was 200000 tons, and social inventory was 782000 tons. The daily - line price is in a downward channel, and the main force has a short - bias attitude. Spot customers can consider a selling hedging strategy [7]. 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: Steel spot customers could consider implementing a selling hedging strategy step - by - step [10]. - **This week's strategy suggestion**: Steel spot customers can consider implementing a selling hedging strategy step - by - step. The AI intelligent model shows that the weekly operating range of rebar futures is 2900 - 3150, and attention should be paid to the pressure area above 3150 [11]. - **Suggestion for spot enterprise hedging**: Implement an appropriate - proportion selling hedging strategy according to the AI intelligent model of Great Wall Futures [12]. 3.3. Relevant Data Situation - The data sources of this report are Wind, MySteel, and the trading consulting department of Great Wall Futures [15]. Iron Ore Futures 3.1. Mid - line Market Analysis - The main contract of iron ore futures is expected to operate in the range of 670 - 730, and attention should be paid to the pressure at around 730. In terms of supply, the global shipment volume of iron ore last week was 2.907 million tons, the arrival volume at 45 major ports in China was 2.525 million tons, steel enterprise inventory was 9.052 million tons, and the inventory at domestic major ports was 14.056 million tons. The daily - line price is in a downward channel, and spot customers can consider a selling hedging strategy [34]. 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The AI variety diagnosis report of Great Wall Futures shows that the daily line of iron ore futures is in a downward channel, and a selling hedging strategy can be considered [37]. - **This week's strategy suggestion**: Based on the comprehensive analysis of the AI intelligent model data of Great Wall Futures, spot inventory customers can consider implementing a selling hedging strategy step - by - step and pay attention to the pressure at around 730 [37]. 3.3. Relevant Data Situation - The data sources of this report are Wind, MySteel, and the trading consulting department of Great Wall Futures [40].

2025.04.21-04.25 电解铝 期货品种周报 中线行情分析 4月底铝价或仍修复性反弹，但空间预计难以逾越20800-21000附近阻力， 5月宏观面主导，价格大区间波动为主。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 4月底政治局会议或成为关键节点，若新一轮稳增长政策（如地产纾困、 基建加码）超预期出台，则市场情绪或仍将进一步提升，另外，6月份 美债到期前，美联储降息预期或进一步升温，但特朗普政策变动性较 大，当前美股熊市特征越发明显，VIX指数处于高位，市场避险情绪仍 偏浓。供需方面，由于云南水电复产完成，近期国内供应压力边际增 加，需求端则结构性分化，整体需求增长较为缓慢，供需中性偏弱。 2 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 价格仍有所反弹，沪铝2506区间预计19500-20200。 沪铝2506看19600-20300区间，区间操作。 n 本周策略建议 n 现货企业套期保值建议 等待企稳买入套保。 【各环节总体看法】 | | 2025年4月第3周 | | --- | --- | | 铝土矿市场 | 二季度铝土矿资源供应大概率继续增加，需要谨防铝土矿来源国几内亚、澳大利亚地区矿石新政等引起 | | | 的 ...