Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The view is to wait for a long - entry opportunity for MEG, but the downside space may also be large. The recommended contract is eg2505. The logic is that although MEG inventory slightly accumulated in Q1 2025, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand driver is still upward under the current low port inventory. However, the cost of crude oil and coal prices has moved downward weakly. It is recommended to go long at low prices after the cost side stabilizes [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Upstream Prices - On April 2, 2025, compared with the previous day, the price of naphtha CFR Japan decreased by 1 to 645.00, the price of动力煤 (内蒙Q5500) remained unchanged at 495.00, the price of ethylene Northeast Asia remained unchanged at 855.00, and the price of methanol in Taicang decreased by 8 to 2571.00 [7]. 2. EG Each Process Profit - On April 1, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, MEG's import profit increased by 13.31 to - 51.65 yuan/ton, oil - made profit increased by 72.27 to - 1168.02 yuan/ton, coal - made profit increased, ethylene - made profit increased by 65.41 to - 741.10 yuan/ton, methanol - made profit increased by 80.48 to - 1597.51 yuan/ton, and the weighted profit increased by 70.05 to - 803.66 yuan/ton [7]. 3. EG Basis, Spread and Position - On April 1, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, EG5 - month basis decreased by 2 to 41.00 [7]. 4. PF Basis and Profit - On April 1, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, the spot profit of direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased by 31.57 to 139.37, the closing price of PF2505 increased by 72 to 6662, the short - fiber main - contract disk profit decreased by 59.48 to 60.34, and the polyester staple fiber basis decreased by 72 to 88 [7]. 5. Industrial Chain Operation Suggestions - For refineries with high MEG inventory worried about price drops, they can long eg2505 at 4500 with a 50% hedging ratio to hedge against risks [5]. - For traders, when establishing inventory and seeking to buy MEG at low prices, they can buy call options eg2505 - C - 4900 at 115 with a 50% ratio to prevent price increases; when having inventory and seeking to sell at high prices, they can short eg2505 at 4600 with a 50% ratio for short - term risk prevention [5]. - For terminal customers in need of polyester raw materials worried about price increases, they can buy call options eg2505 - C - 4900 at 115 with a 50% ratio [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The downward space of styrene is limited, with support at the price level of 7,600. The contract is eb2505. Looking ahead, styrene may show a pattern of having support below and pressure above. The support lies in the fact that as the maintenance season of pure benzene and styrene approaches, styrene inventory will gradually be depleted. The de - stocking degree of pure benzene is less than that of styrene, showing a mild de - stocking trend, so the price support in the second quarter is relatively strong. The upper - side pressure comes from the limited ability of the end - users to bear high prices. One should focus on the downstream profits of pure benzene and styrene. The price range is estimated to be between 7,600 and 8,150 [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1产业链操作建议 - For refiners with high inventory and worried about styrene price decline, they can short - hedge a small proportion of unsold EB inventory using eb2505 at an entry price of 9,600 to prevent unexpected risks [6]. - For traders building inventory and seeking to buy styrene at low prices, they can buy call options (eb2505 - C - 8600) according to the procurement plan at an entry price of 77 [6]. - For traders with inventory and seeking to sell styrene at high prices, they can short - hedge a part of the inventory using eb2505 at an entry price of 9,600 to prevent short - term price decline [6]. - For end - customers purchasing styrene and worried about price increase, they can buy call options (eb2505 - C - 8600) according to the procurement plan at an entry price of 77 [6]. - For end - customers with inventory and worried about price decline, they can short - hedge a part of the inventory using eb2505 at an entry price of 9,600 to prevent short - term price decline [6]. 3.2日度描述 - Crude oil is generally running strongly. The domestic profit of pure benzene has recently continued to recover to a seasonal high, while the non - integrated profit of styrene is currently at a relatively low valuation level [8]. 3.3产业链每日数据 - **Price Data**: On April 1, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, the price of naphtha CFR Japan decreased by 1 to 645.00; the price of ethylene CFR Northeast Asia remained unchanged at 855.00; the price of toluene CFR China increased by 12 to 747.00; the price of toluene FOB Korea increased by 4 to 730.00; the price of pure benzene China CFR increased by 17 to 853.00; the price of pure benzene Korea FOB increased by 12 to 832.00; the price of pure benzene in East China increased by 145 to 6,760.00; the spot price of styrene in East China increased by 146 to 8,153.00; the EPS price remained unchanged at 8,950.00; the PS price remained unchanged at 8,800.00; the ABS price remained unchanged at 11,275; the EB outer - disk US dollar price in China CFR decreased by 3 to 975.00; the US Gulf FOB remained unchanged at 1,100.00; the Korea FOB decreased by 3 to 965.00; the Rotterdam FOB increased by 47 to 1,264.00; the China Taiwan CFR remained unchanged at 1,006.50 [10]. - **Profit Data**: On April 1, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, the domestic profit of pure benzene increased by 152.9 to 532.54; the import profit of pure benzene increased by 1.4 to - 331.18; the non - integrated profit of styrene increased by 31.2 to - 161.72; the integrated profit of styrene (ethylbenzene dehydrogenation) increased by 164.0 to 714.05; the import profit of styrene increased by 170.0 to - 106.69; the EPS profit increased by 73.73 to - 203; the PS profit decreased by 146.0 to - 353.00; the ABS profit decreased by 119.9 to 527.55 [21]. - **Spread and Basis Data**: On April 1, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, the pure benzene paper - cargo spread decreased by 5 to 0.00; the EB04 closing price increased by 109 to 8,029.00; the EB05 closing price increased by 146 to 7,983.00; the EB4 - 5 spread decreased by 37 to 46.00; the EB04 East China basis increased by 37 to 124.00 [30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - No information provided in the document. 3. Summary by Related Content - **Positive Changes**: Products with positive price changes include propane import cost (FEI propane) with a 72 increase to 5,087 and a change rate of 8.2%, methanol in East China with a 125 increase to 2,687 and a change rate of 4.9%, and many others like asphalt in Shandong with a 2.3% change rate and an 84 increase to 3,700 [1]. - **Negative Changes**: Products with negative price changes include hot - rolled coil in Zhonghai with a - 20 change to 3,370 and a - 0.1% change rate, 20 - number rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone with a - 146 change to 14,818 and a - 0.1% change rate, and coke in Shanxi with a - 194 change to 1,441 and an - 11.9% change rate [1]. - **Calculation Notes**: The document provides calculation formulas for key indicators such as the main basis (main basis = spot - main contract), the discount rate ((spot price - futures price)/futures price), and the change refers to the comparison with the same period of the previous trading day [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The downside space of styrene is limited, with support at the [7600] price level. The styrene contract is eb2505. Looking ahead, styrene may show a pattern of having support below and pressure above. The support lies in the upcoming maintenance season for pure benzene and styrene, during which styrene inventory will gradually decline. The de - stocking of pure benzene is less significant than that of styrene, showing a moderate de - stocking trend, so the price support in the second quarter is relatively strong. The upper - side pressure comes from the limited ability of end - users to bear high prices. One should focus on the profits of pure benzene downstream and styrene downstream. The price range is estimated to be between [7600, 8150] [4]. - Crude oil is generally strong. The profit of domestic pure benzene has recently continued to recover to a seasonal high, while the non - integrated profit of styrene has been at a relatively low level recently [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Toluene Spread - The document presents the toluene spread data in different regions such as America, Europe, and Asia on 2025 - 03 - 26, including the spread between benzene and toluene, and toluene and naphtha, with a daily update frequency [10][11][14]. 2. Pure Benzene Spread and Profit - On 2025 - 03 - 26, the domestic pure benzene profit was 268.62 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 87.5 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 334.89 yuan/ton. The pure benzene import profit was - 311.54 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 78.6 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 106.04 yuan/ton. The document also shows the pure benzene US Gulf FOB - South Korea FOB spread and other related data with a daily update frequency [9][21][23]. 3. Other Downstream Profits of Pure Benzene - On 2025 - 03 - 26, the EPS price was 8950 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 50 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 150 yuan/ton. The PS price was 8800 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 50 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 150 yuan/ton. The ABS price was 11312.5 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 62.5 yuan/ton [11][12][13]. 4. Styrene Profit and Spread - On 2025 - 03 - 26, the non - integrated styrene profit was - 119.15 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 63.6 yuan/ton and a weekly change of 3.74 yuan/ton. The integrated (ethylbenzene dehydrogenation) styrene profit was 611.70 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 42.5 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 328.44 yuan/ton. The document also includes styrene price, spread, and other related data [23][24][31]. 5. EB Inventory Situation - On 2025 - 03 - 26, the China CFR price of EB was 961.00 US dollars/ton, with a weekly change of - 26 US dollars/ton. The US Gulf FOB price was 1125.00 US dollars/ton, with no change. The South Korea FOB price was 951.00 US dollars/ton, with a weekly change of - 26 US dollars/ton. The Rotterdam FOB price was 1223.00 US dollars/ton, with a daily change of 8 US dollars/ton and a weekly change of 10 US dollars/ton. The China Taiwan CFR price was 989.00 US dollars/ton, with a weekly change of - 20 US dollars/ton [15][16][17]. 6. EB Downstream Profits - The document shows the profit data of EB downstream products such as EPS, PS, and ABS, with different daily and weekly changes [11][12][13]. 7. Pure Benzene Inventory Situation - The document presents the pure benzene inventory data in East China ports from different sources (Longzhong and Huarui) on different dates, with a weekly update frequency [45][46]. 8. Styrene Inventory Situation - It includes the inventory data of styrene in mainstream storage areas in Jiangsu and South China, national factory inventory, total inventory, and port total inventory from different sources (Longzhong and Huarui) on different dates, with a weekly update frequency [62]. 9. Industry Chain Operation Suggestions - For refiners with high inventory worried about styrene price decline, they can hedge a small proportion of unsold EB inventory by short - selling eb2505 to prevent unexpected risks, with a hedging ratio of 20% and an entry price of 9600 [5]. - For traders building inventory and seeking to buy styrene at low prices, they can buy call options (eb2505 - C - 8600) according to the procurement plan to prevent price increases, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry price of 77 [5]. - For traders with inventory seeking to sell styrene at high prices, they can partially short - hedge to prevent short - term price declines, with a hedging ratio of 20% and an entry price of 9600 [5]. - For end - customers purchasing styrene and worried about price increases, they can buy call options (eb2505 - C - 8600) according to the procurement plan to prevent price increases, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry price of 77 [5]. - For end - customers with inventory worried about styrene price decline, they can partially short - hedge to prevent short - term price declines, with a hedging ratio of 20% and an entry price of 9600 [5]. - Attention should be paid to the inventory data of Longzhong's pure benzene and styrene at ports on Mondays, Huarui's pure benzene and styrene at ports on Wednesdays, the load and inventory of the styrene industrial chain on Thursdays, and the load and inventory of the pure benzene industrial chain on Fridays [5].

EGPF早报 日期: 2025-03-27 ZHESHANG FUTURES EGPF早报 核心观点 ® 观点: MEG 等待做多机会,但下方空间也可能较大 * 合约: eg2505 ® 逻辑： 观点：乙二醇进入25年Q1季度库存略积累，但在目前范口库存低位背景下，中长期供需驱动依旧在上，但成本端原油及煤价省偏弱下移，建议待成本端企稳后再逢低做多 主要逻辑: （1）目前油眼负荷偏稳运行，1月检修装置依旧棉多，后续关注滇海炼化回归情况。煤制方面后续来看，随着煤制剂润持续爆复，煤制负荷不断攀升，后续荣朗负荷动潍井高位近行，随着聚盛淡泽到来，聚酯负荷动碳暖下 滑，25年Q1库存或略有积累,但累库幅度相对有限,预计后续港口依旧维持相对偏低库存运行。 (2) 近期乙二醇期货价格维持区间震荡，整体呈现下有支撑上有压力的状态，25年Q1潜口库存或略有积累，但低库存现实下乙二醇价格支撑仍偏强，在化工板块中依旧偏多配。 产业链操作建议 快速套保 快速套保 (模拟) 场外报价 行为导向 情形导向 现货敞口 策略推荐 套保比例(%) 入场价格 相关场外产品 参与角色 套保衍生品 买卖 可针对未卖出MEG库存,按比例套保做 炼厂 多 ...

| 2025年3月26日收盘基差表 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 现货折盘面 变动 主力基差 变动 贴水幅度 价差结构 现货基准地 | | | | | | | た誠 2,916 -6 367 -3 14.4% 山东 | | | | | | | 日相 330 3,150 -10 +38 11.7% 日熊 | | | | | | | 生猪 14,820 -50 1,285 -130 9.5% 河南 | | | | | | | LPG华南 5,100 331 -46 6.9% 华南 - | | | | | | | 棕櫚潤 -44 6.4% 乐莞 9,410 -10 564 | | | | | | | 工业硅(出) 10,300 -100 ર્કર +50 5.7% 华东 | | | | | | | 棉花 新疆 | | | | | | | 14,385 +40 750 -10 5.5% | | | | | | | 丙烷进口成本 252 -8 5.3% FEI内烷 5,021 +38 | | | | | | | LPG华东 5,000 23 ...

注7:高硫燃油掉期为新加坡高硫燃油380掉期，合约月份为3月。低硫燃油掉期为新加坡低硫燃油0.5%掉期，合约月份为3月。高硫燃油 为新加坡高硫380MOPS价格, 低硫燃油为新加坡低0.5MMOPS价格, MOPS价格为前一交易日价格,仅供参考。 注8:从2023年7月4日起. 山东现货基准价格由京博切换为弘润价格. 山东弘润无品牌贴水. 山东地域贴水80元 注9: 集运指数(欧线)现货价格为每周一下午公布的上海出口集装箱运价指数(SCFIS), 每周更新一次 注10: 纯碱贸易商基差报价数据由于品牌、交割库、点价合约等区别仅供参考 注11: 从2025年1月1日起, 山东现货基准价格由弘润切换为京博价格, 山东京博无品牌贴水, 山东地域贴水80元/吨 本表格仅供参考,不作为入市依据。 注3: 现货价格为当日上午或下午基准地报价,期货价格为发布时最新价:其中股指期现都用最新价: 注4:期货主力合约月份选择:股指4月,连续金属4月, 沥青4月,159合约为5月, 螺纹、热卷为5月,集运为4月,工业硅,碳酸锂4月 注5: 进口成本按FEl丙烷掉期折算成国内人民币计算,丙烷贴水已计算在内 注6:铁矿为65%卡粉,螺 ...

【宏观周报20250316】美国2月通胀数据意外回落，但市场仍担 忧关税影响 朱枭鹏，Z0015158 日期: 2025-03-16 【宏观周报20250316】美国2月通胀数据意外回落，但市场仍担忧关税影响 【宏观总结20250316】 海外经济:美国2月通胀数据超预期回落 3月12日，美国劳卫部公布的数据显示，今年2月美国消费者价格指数（8P）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨2.8%，商蛋价格环比上涨10.4%，同比上涨68.8%，显示出美国吗蛋短线观找070 未缓解。数据显示，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，2月核心8PI环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨3.1%，远高于美国联邦储备委员会设定的20长期目标。 海外经济:美国2月就业数据偏弱,政府雇员新增人数由正转负 3月7日、美国劳工部发布的数据显示，2月份非农部门就业人数增加15.1万人、失业率环比上升0.1个百分点，至4.1%。上述数据整体而言低于市场的普遍顾期。美国2月份的华农就 业人数降低于过去12个月的月均值116.8万人)，失业率仍处在自2024年5月以来4.08~4. 25k的波动区间。数据显示，美国2月份主要的就业增长来自医疗保健、金融服务、运输和仓 ...

Economic Overview - In February, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, compared to an increase of 0.5% in the previous month[4] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1% in February, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 151,000, below the market expectation[3] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for February was reported at 50.3, indicating slight expansion, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 53.5, showing stronger growth[19] Policy and Economic Goals - The Chinese government aims for a GDP growth of around 8% for 2025, with a target urban unemployment rate of approximately 5.3% and a consumer price increase of about 2.8%[4] - The focus of the Chinese government during the Two Sessions is on boosting consumption and stabilizing the real estate and stock markets[4] Inflation and Monetary Policy - U.S. inflation data for January showed a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, exceeding expectations, while core CPI rose by 3.3%[5] - The Federal Reserve's Chairman Powell indicated that there is no urgency to lower interest rates, citing stable labor market conditions[6] Financial Indicators - In January, China's social financing scale increased by 7.06 trillion yuan, which is 683 billion yuan more than the same period last year[5] - The manufacturing PMI in China rose to 50.28 in February, up by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved economic conditions[4]

【宏观周报20250223】科技概念助推国内市场宏观情绪偏向乐观 朱枭鹏，Z0015158 日期: 2025-02-21 【宏观周报20250223】科技概念助推国内市场宏观情绪偏向乐观 【宏观总结20250223】 国内经济:1月信贷社融开门红 1月社会融资规模增量为7.06万亿元，比上年同期多5833亿元。其中，对实体经济发放的人民币贷款增加6.22万亿元，同比多增3793亿元。1月份人民币贷款增加5.18万亿元。分部 门看，住户贷款增加4438亿元，企（事）业单位贷款增加4.78万亿元。社融数据数据同比回升，显示宏观经济边际好转进一步加强. 海外经济:美国1月通胀数据超预期回升 2月12日，美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，美国1月29日同比增长3%，超出预期和前值的2.9%、1月GPI环比增0.5%，为2020年8月以来的最大涨幅。超出预期的0.3%以及前值的2.9%及 连续第七个月加速。剔除波动较大的食品和能源，1月份核心SPL上涨0.4%，同比增速见加快至3.3%。面对新一轮商品和服务成本上涨，以及美国关税政策的比动，美联储立场可能 维持谨慎，即在经济不确定性日益增加的情况下，并不急于恢复降息。 海外经 ...