Report Title - "PP Weekly Report 20250810: Lack of Contradiction, Prices Continue to Fluctuate" [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Polypropylene is in a stage of fluctuating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. The contract is pp2509. The Middle East conflict has caused slight fluctuations in energy, but from the fundamental perspective, over - supply will further intensify. In 2025, the device will be in operation throughout the year, and there will be intensive production in June and July, increasing production capacity pressure. At the same time, the supply is higher than the same period in previous years, and the demand situation is "normal" [3]. - Pay attention to the cost - end crude oil price and the inventory changes in the middle and lower reaches [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The spot price is basically stable, and the basis has slightly strengthened. The East China basis has strengthened by 30 to about - 40 yuan/ton, the North China basis has strengthened by 50 to about - 100 yuan/ton, and the South China basis has strengthened by 10 to about 0 yuan/ton. The non - standard basis shows a similar trend [15]. - **Regional Spread**: The North China - East China spread has a slight rebound, and the South China - East China spread remains at a low level [25]. - **Related Product Spread**: The spreads between injection molding - drawing and low - melt copolymer - drawing have strengthened [26]. - **Disk Spread**: The 9 - 1 month spread has further dropped to around - 31. The L - PP3 spread remains at around 220. The previous PP - V09 spread has rebounded and then dropped significantly, and has recently recovered. The L - PP spread has limited changes, mainly due to less driving force. Overall, the supply pressure of PP is greater, while L has more maintenance and reduced imports, and both are in the off - season in terms of demand. The MTO profit remains at a low level [44]. 2. Domestic Production - End Profit and Supply - **Production Profit**: - Oil - based PP: This week, the oil price has continued to decline, with Brent oil falling to around 66 US dollars/barrel. The oil - based PP profit has recovered compared with the previous period [71]. - PDH: Overseas supply from the Middle East and the United States will further increase, and domestic refineries are back in production, increasing supply pressure. The domestic spot price is under pressure, and the PDH profit is not good [71]. - CTO and MTO: With the arrival of the coal - using peak season, the coal price has rebounded, but the CTO profit remains at a high level. The methanol price at the origin has increased due to tight supply and demand, and the inland MTO profit has deteriorated [71]. - **Domestic Output and Load**: This week, the PP output is 77.71 tons (+ 0.38 tons), and the operating rate is 77.31% (+ 0.37%). The PP supply loss is 28.03 tons, including 15.86 tons of maintenance loss and 7.16 tons of load - reduction loss. The maintenance loss of the device has decreased this week [6][98]. - **Production Allocation Ratio**: The production allocation ratio of PP upstream devices is provided. An increase in the drawing production allocation may indicate that the standard product is stronger than the non - standard product in the short term, but the medium - term supply pressure may increase [122]. 3. US Dollar Price and Import - Export Profit - **US Dollar Price and Spread**: - **External US Dollar Price**: The prices in Northwest Europe have fallen from high levels, the prices in the US Gulf have remained stable, and the overall prices in Asia have declined. The CFR Far East price has remained stable, but the prices in Southeast Asia and South Asia have fallen significantly. - **Internal - External Spread**: The spread between CFR China and the external market has rebounded [127]. - **Import - Export Profit**: The domestic market is in a volatile consolidation. The export offer of production enterprises has remained stable, and the export sentiment is positive, with actual transactions at a discounted price. On the import side, it is difficult to open the import arbitrage window [144]. 4. Downstream开工 - This week, the comprehensive downstream operating rate has increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and most operating rates are improving. The operating rates of plastic weaving, PP non - woven fabrics, and BOPF have remained stable. Recently, due to the hot weather and subsidies from food delivery platforms, the demand for milk tea cups, cold drink cups, and lunch boxes has increased, which has significantly supported the daily injection molding and transparent PP industries, leading to an increase in their operating rates. The previous maintenance devices of modified PP and CPP have resumed operation, and with the support of a small number of new orders, the industry operating rates have increased month - on - month. With the arrival of the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", the downstream operating rate will gradually increase [147]. 5. Inventory - Production enterprise inventory has increased by 2.23 tons to 2.23 tons. Among them, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina has increased by 1.44 tons, the coal - chemical inventory has increased by 0.56 tons, the PBI inventory has remained unchanged, and the local refinery inventory has increased by 0.24 tons. Downstream enterprises continue to make rigid purchases with average enthusiasm, while the supply has further increased, resulting in inventory accumulation at a high level [7][205]. - Trader inventory has increased by 1.4 tons, and the downstream transmission is not smooth; port inventory has decreased by 0.13 tons [7][205]. 6. Position, Trading Volume, and Warehouse Receipt Situation - **Position**: The position information of PP 09, 05, and 01 contracts is provided [220]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume information of PP 01, 09, and 05 contracts is provided [223][227][230]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: The number of registered PP warehouse receipts on August 8, 2025, is 17,191 [235][236].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - sentiment has declined, and the spot price of near - term caustic soda has collapsed. The upside space of caustic soda is limited, with pressure at the 2800 price level. The supply of liquid caustic soda is expected to remain high, the overall demand is weak, and both liquid and flake caustic soda have seen a week - on - week inventory build - up. The caustic soda price has been falling this week, mainly due to weakening demand in the Shandong region and a downward adjustment in the purchase price of alumina, the main downstream product [3][6]. - For different market participants, corresponding hedging strategies are recommended. For example, producers with high inventory can buy put options and sell call options; traders looking to build inventory can sell put options and buy call options; terminal customers worried about price increases can buy call options [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Price - China's caustic soda is divided into different specifications, including 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda. The price of low - concentration caustic soda in China has remained stable week - on - week. In Shandong, the average market price of 32% ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda is 847 yuan/ton (converted to 2646.875 yuan/dry ton), and the price of high - concentration liquid caustic soda has declined [11]. 3.2 Price Difference - **Model Price Difference**: The price differences between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda, and between 99% flake caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in different regions such as Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Shaanxi are presented, with daily - updated data [37]. - **Regional Price Difference**: The price differences of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda between different regions are analyzed, including the differences between Zhejiang - Shandong, Shaanxi - Shandong, and Jiangsu - Shandong, with daily - updated data [37]. 3.3 Supply - **Production and Supply**: China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North, Northwest, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total. This week, the estimated domestic caustic soda production is 828,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,600 tons, and the weekly operating rate of liquid caustic soda enterprises is 84.32%, a week - on - week increase of 1.04% [55]. - **Maintenance Situation**: Many chlor - alkali plants have completed maintenance this week, while some are still under maintenance or have planned maintenance. This week's maintenance is expected to affect a total of 27,950 tons of caustic soda production in terms of 100% purity [60]. - **Flake Caustic Soda Unit Operation**: The operation status of flake caustic soda units of various manufacturers is reported, including normal operation, reduced operation, and maintenance [64]. 3.4 Downstream Demand - **Alumina**: This week, the supply of alumina has changed little. The overall supply - demand imbalance in the south has not improved significantly. As of August 7, the installed capacity of alumina in China is 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity is 94.4 million tons, and the operating rate is 82.23% [67]. - **Viscose Staple Fiber**: From August 1 to August 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry is 84.97%, remaining unchanged from last week [67]. - **Printing and Dyeing Industry**: As of August 7, the comprehensive operating rate in the Yangtze River Delta is 69.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.38%. The market demand in the printing and dyeing industry remains weak [67]. 3.5 Inventory - As of August 8, 2025, the inventory of domestic liquid caustic soda factories is 376,930 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.99%. The inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 23,555 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23.65% [80]. 3.6 Valuation - **Cost Side**: The cost of caustic soda production mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. This week, the domestic industrial salt market has declined slightly, and the domestic thermal coal market price has risen [84]. - **Profit**: This week, the comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry at the spot end has been compressed, with a slight increase in the cost - side price and a weakening of the liquid caustic soda market price [85]. 3.7 Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - The report presents data on the benchmark spot price of PVC, the weekly operating rate of PVC powder, the comprehensive profit of the calcium carbide method, and the comprehensive profit of the northwest integrated chlor - alkali industry. It also includes data on the capacity utilization rate and production profit of products such as propylene oxide and epichlorohydrin [97].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - The upside space for caustic soda is limited, with pressure at the 2800 price level. The supply of liquid caustic soda is expected to remain high, downstream demand is weak, and inventory has increased. The price of caustic soda has been falling due to weak demand in the Shandong region and a downward adjustment in the purchase price of alumina, the main downstream product. [3][6] - For different market participants, corresponding option trading strategies are recommended to manage inventory and procurement risks. [4] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Spot Price - Domestic caustic soda is divided into different specifications, including 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda. The price of low - concentration caustic soda in Shandong has been adjusted downward, with poor trading for high - concentration caustic soda. [11] - The report provides price data for different regions and specifications of caustic soda, including 32 - alkali in Shandong, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Henan; 50 - alkali in Shandong, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Henan; and 99 - flake caustic soda in Shandong, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang. [12][20][27] 2. Spread 2.1 Model Spread - The report shows the price spreads between 50 - alkali and 32 - alkali in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Shaanxi, as well as the spreads between 99 - flake caustic soda and 32 - alkali in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shandong. [37] 2.2 Regional Spread - It presents the regional price spreads of 32 - alkali (Zhejiang - Shandong, Shaanxi - Shandong, Jiangsu - Shandong), 50 - alkali (Jiangsu - Shandong, Zhejiang - Shandong, Shaanxi - Shandong), and 99 - flake caustic soda (Shandong - Shaanxi, Shandong - Inner Mongolia). [37] 3. Supply 3.1 Load and Output - China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total. This week, the domestic caustic soda production is expected to be 828,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,600 tons, and the weekly operating rate of liquid caustic soda enterprises is 84.32%, a week - on - week increase of 1.04%. [55] 3.2 Maintenance Situation - Many enterprises' chlor - alkali plants have completed maintenance or are in the process of maintenance. This week, the impact of maintenance on production is smaller than last week. The report lists the maintenance situations of multiple chlor - alkali plants, including those in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Shandong, Hubei, and Gansu. [55][60] 3.3 Flake Caustic Soda Plant Operation - The report details the operation status of flake caustic soda plants of various manufacturers, including normal operation, reduced load, and maintenance. [64] 4. Downstream Demand 4.1 Alumina - This week, the supply of alumina has changed little. The supply - demand imbalance in different regions still exists. As of August 7, the installed capacity of alumina in China is 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity is 94.4 million tons, and the operating rate is 82.23%. [67] 4.2 Viscose Staple Fiber - From August 1 to August 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry is 84.97%, the same as last week, and the domestic viscose plants are operating stably. [67] 4.3 Printing and Dyeing Industry - As of August 7, the comprehensive operating rate of the printing and dyeing industry in the Yangtze River region is 69.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.38%. The market demand is still weak, and it is expected that the demand will gradually pick up after mid - September. [67] 5. Inventory - As of August 8, 2025, the inventory of domestic liquid caustic soda plants is 376,930 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.99%, and the inventory of flake caustic soda plants is 23,555 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23.65%. [80] 6. Valuation 6.1 Cost - The cost of caustic soda production mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. This week, the domestic industrial salt market has declined slightly, and the domestic thermal coal market price has risen. [84] 6.2 Profit - This week, the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the spot market has been compressed, with a slight increase in the cost side and a weakening of the liquid caustic soda market price. [85] 7. Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - The report provides data on the benchmark spot price of PVC, the weekly operating rate of PVC powder, the comprehensive profit of calcium carbide - based PVC, and the production profits of propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, etc. [97]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report 10 - year Treasury Bond (T2509) - **View**: Range - bound trading in the range of [106, 109] - **Logic**: Slightly improved liquidity environment, continued focus on central bank's capital injection; loose monetary policy; economic data decline in June with weak domestic demand and external shocks - **Concern Data**: Economic data in May [7] 2 - year Treasury Bond (TS2509) - **View**: Range - bound trading in the range of [102, 103] - **Logic**: Slightly improved liquidity environment, central bank's open - market reverse repurchase; the tone of monetary policy set by the Politburo meeting in July is moderately loose - **Concern Data**: Changes in central bank's LPR interest rate, changes in central bank's monetary policy, economic data in May [7] 5 - year Treasury Bond (TF2509) - **View**: Range - bound trading in the range of [105, 106.5] - **Logic**: Slightly improved liquidity environment, central bank's open - market reverse repurchase; the tone of monetary policy set by the Politburo meeting in July is moderately loose - **Concern Data**: Central bank's monetary policy operations, changes in central bank's LPR interest rate, economic data in May [12] 30 - year Treasury Bond (TL2509) - **View**: Range - bound trading in the range of [111, 120] - **Logic**: Slightly improved liquidity environment, continued focus on central bank's capital injection; loose monetary policy; economic data decline in June with weak domestic demand and external shocks - **Concern Data**: Economic data in May [12] Summary According to the Directory I. Economic Situation 1. Consumption - Short - term consumption declined slightly. In June 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4,228.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. From January to June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 24,545.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [21] 2. Investment - Investment growth declined slightly. In the first half of 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2,486.54 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.6% year - on - year. In June, manufacturing investment growth declined to 7.5%, a 1% decline from the previous month. High - tech service industry growth remained at a high level, exceeding that of high - tech manufacturing. Infrastructure investment growth excluding electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industries was 4.8% year - on - year, further declining from the previous month [21][25][29] 3. Real Estate - In June, real estate investment growth continued to decline. The cumulative year - on - year decline in the floor area of newly started buildings was 20.1%, with a slightly narrowed decline. The cumulative year - on - year decline in the floor area of commercial housing sales was 3.5%, with an enlarged decline [35] 4. Import and Export - In June 2025, exports increased by 5.8% year - on - year, with a 1.0 - percentage - point increase from May. The cumulative export in the first half of the year increased by 5.9% year - on - year. Imports increased by 1.1% year - on - year, ending consecutive negative growth; the cumulative import in the first half of the year decreased by 3.9% year - on - year [39] II. Inflation Indicators 1. CPI - In June 2025, the national consumer price index increased by 0.1% year - on - year. In the first half of the year, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period of the previous year [46] 2. PPI - In June 2025, the national producer price index for industrial products and the purchase price index decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, with an enlarged decline of 0.3% [49] III. Policy Expectations - The Politburo meeting continued the general tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability", emphasizing "maintaining policy continuity and stability, and enhancing flexibility and predictability". Fiscal and monetary policies did not introduce large - scale stimulus tools but focused on the "implementation and refinement" of previous policies. Fiscal policy focused on accelerating the issuance and use of government bonds, improving capital efficiency, and ensuring the "three guarantees" at the grass - roots level. Monetary policy focused on structural tools to support scientific and technological innovation, small and micro - enterprises and other fields, and promote the decline of social financing costs [49] IV. Overseas Data 1. US Economy - In the second quarter of 2025, the US GDP's quarter - on - quarter annualized rate was 3%, showing an obvious rebound from the first quarter [49] 2. US Inflation - In June 2025, the US CPI increased by 2.67% year - on - year, slightly higher than the market expectation; the core CPI was 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, indicating a mild rebound in inflation pressure but still within the controllable range [52] 3. US Employment - In July 2025, the initial value of new non - farm payrolls was 73,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 104,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, the highest level since November 2021 [54] 4. US Manufacturing PMI - In June, the US ISM manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded to 49% but remained below the boom - bust line [56] 5. Fed Monetary Policy - The Fed paused interest rate cuts in July, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%. Market expectations show that the probability of a rate cut in September is only about 40%, mainly due to Powell's hawkish speech after the July meeting. The probability of rate cuts from October to December remains high. The Fed may delay balance - sheet reduction [61][67][68] V. Other Data 1. Interest Rates - The DR interest rate continued to decline, breaking through 1.40%. The interest rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit also slightly rebounded compared with the previous month, with a general increase of about 3 - 5bp for each term [75] 2. Exchange Rates - In July, the on - shore US dollar - RMB exchange rate fluctuated around 7.17. The US dollar index remained weak in July, fluctuating around the level of 97 [82]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA (TA509), it is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. The supply - side second - quarter centralized maintenance has ended, downstream polyester is weakening in the off - season, and factors such as tariffs may affect medium - and long - term terminal consumer exports. In the third quarter, the overall supply - demand pattern is weak, and PTA should be short - positioned in the medium - and long - term [1]. - For p - xylene (PX509), it is also in a stage of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. After the third - quarter centralized maintenance ends, the supply - side load recovers, downstream polyester starts to weaken in the off - season, and factors like tariffs may affect medium - and long - term terminal consumer exports. The subsequent price center is likely to weaken, and it can be short - tested in the third quarter [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Overview and Strategy - **Supply**: PX and PTA device maintenance plans are few in the third quarter. PE and PTA loads are at a moderately high level, and new devices are put into production smoothly. Supply will be sufficient in the second half of the year [12]. - **Demand**: Polyester starts at around 88% recently, with inventory at a moderately high level after restocking, but profit is weak. Terminal data is average, and the demand in the peak season this year may not be too optimistic [12]. - **Spot**: PTA spot basis is weak, with the spot premium over the 09 - contract at about 0 yuan/ton [12]. - **Valuation**: Recent valuation changes are small, currently oscillating around 200 US dollars/ton in 2018, and the spot processing fee is about 200 yuan/ton. The industrial chain valuation is neutral, and whether it can be maintained depends on the polyester's start - up rate on the demand side [12]. - **Unilateral Strategy**: Against the background of relatively cheap crude oil on the cost side, PTA is considered bearish in the medium - and long - term. Near the peak season, the peak - season expectation may bring a rebound. In the short - term, it may oscillate strongly, but in the medium - and long - term, it should be treated bearishly, and it is suitable to hold PTA as a short - position in energy - chemical or commodity portfolios [12]. 3.2 Market Review: July Market Trends - PTA prices oscillated in July, with the price center slightly rising following the cost - side crude oil. From the supply - demand perspective, there were no significant highlights in July, with weak off - season demand and compressed overall valuation. Affected by strong commodity macro - sentiment and rising crude oil prices, it showed an oscillating upward trend with small self - fluctuations [18]. 3.3 PX Fundamental Analysis - **Device Changes**: The Xianglongdao project had no progress in the first half of the year. Recently, the device is in line with expectations, and the PX load has been rising in the third quarter, returning to the normal level range of previous years. The market trading focus has shifted to the impact of domestic macro - policies on commodities, and the supply - demand may be balanced in the third quarter [28]. - **Profit**: The PX processing fee is around 260 US dollars/ton recently, remaining at a high level this year. If the supply - demand remains balanced, PXN may oscillate in this range, and attention should be paid to whether demand can effectively support it [43]. 3.4 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Start - up Rate**: The effective start - up rate is 80%. Recently, multiple devices have been overhauled as planned, and the PTA load is at a normal level. There are few overhaul plans in the third quarter, and the impact of new device production on this year's supply - demand pattern may be limited [61]. - **Profit**: The spot processing fee is around 200 yuan/ton, which is currently in a neutral position. As supply recovers, the basis weakens, and the spot processing fee is compressed [62]. 3.5 Polyester Fundamental Analysis - **Start - up**: Polyester starts at 88%. Due to inventory pressure in the off - season, polyester factories have cut production. As the off - season ends, attention should be paid to the inventory performance before the Peak Season. Whether the demand can return to a high load in the peak season may be the core factor for the industrial chain's valuation [69]. - **Profit**: The profit of polyester bottle chips has been at the bottom of the historical level, resulting in low start - up rates and possible post - ponement of new device production. Most polyester varieties have poor profits due to strong raw material prices [72]. - **Inventory**: After terminal restocking, the polyester burden has been digested to some extent. Currently, terminal demand confidence is insufficient, and short - term production and sales are difficult to maintain. Polyester is likely to accumulate inventory, and attention should be paid to inventory changes, which will greatly affect the expectation of peak - season load [87]. 3.6 Terminal Weaving Fundamental Analysis - **Start - up**: The weaving start - up rate is 58%. The terminal situation is average in terms of order index, start - up, and inventory data. Domestic macro - policies have led to strong raw material prices, which may further compress terminal demand expectations. Although the peak season is approaching, the overall situation may not be very optimistic [93]. - **Export**: The export data of clothing and textile products shows certain fluctuations, and the trade situation is affected by various factors such as tariffs [102][110]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **PX**: The supply - demand is basically balanced in the third quarter, with production, import, and consumption showing certain trends and year - on - year changes [121]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation is also analyzed in the balance sheet, including production, import, consumption, and inventory changes, etc. Production is estimated based on device overhauls and new device commissions, and import and export are inferred according to trade contracts and price differences [121]. 3.8 Basis and Spread Analysis - **PX**: The basis and spread of the PX09 contract show certain trends, which can provide arbitrage opportunities and reflect market supply - demand and price relationships [125]. - **PTA**: The basis and spread of PTA contracts (such as TA01, TA09, etc.) also show different trends, having an impact on trading strategies and market expectations [126][135]. 3.9 Position and Trading Volume Analysis - **PX**: The position and trading volume of the PX09 contract show certain changes, which can reflect market participation and trading sentiment [140]. - **PTA**: The position and trading volume of the PTA09 contract also show corresponding trends, affecting price fluctuations and market supply - demand relationships [140].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upper - space of caustic soda is limited, and there is pressure at the 2800 price level. The recent supply - demand remains loose. With the return of previously overhauled devices, supply pressure persists, and downstream demand remains dull with no obvious positive factors. The market mainly weighs the possible negative feedback on the operating rate caused by the decline in liquid chlorine prices and the potential impact of domestic exports. Considering the approaching delivery of the near - end contract, the upper - space of the near - end is expected to be limited without obvious event shocks [3]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In July, domestic caustic soda futures showed a trend of rising from a low level and strengthening with fluctuations. Taking the main contract SE2509 as an example, it rebounded from the June low of 2207 yuan/ton to the intra - cycle high of 2757 yuan/ton, with a rise of 28.23%. The strong performance of caustic soda futures in the cycle was related to the near - end spot pattern and July policy expectations. The near - end spot strengthened as the previous pessimistic expectations were gradually corrected. The market's discussion on the comprehensive profit, inventory, and possible production cuts of upstream chlor - alkali enterprises heated up due to the rapid decline in the price of associated liquid chlorine. Upstream enterprises raised the price of liquid caustic soda, and downstream alumina enterprises also increased their procurement prices. In addition, the "anti - involution" series of policies in July boosted the commodity sentiment, and the caustic soda market showed an upward trend [15]. 2. Spot Prices - **32% caustic soda**: The prices in different regions such as Shandong, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Henan are presented, with specific price data and trends shown in the figures [18][22]. - **50% caustic soda**: The prices in regions like Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, and Inner Mongolia are provided, along with their price trends [24]. - **99% flake caustic soda**: The prices in Shandong, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang are given, and the price trends are also shown [25]. 3. Price Spreads - **Model price spreads**: The price spreads between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Shaanxi, as well as the spreads between 99% flake caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shandong, are analyzed, with specific data and trends presented [33]. - **Regional price spreads**: The price spreads of 32% caustic soda and 50% caustic soda between different regions are studied, including the spreads between Zhejiang - Shandong, Jiangsu - Shandong, etc., and the corresponding data and trends are shown [33][34]. 4. Supply Side - **Overall supply situation**: China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total national capacity. The production capacity in Southwest, South, and Northeast China is relatively low. In June, the domestic caustic soda production (in 100% equivalent) was 3.5122 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%. In July, the expected domestic caustic soda production (in 100% equivalent) was 3.6178 million tons, with an expected month - on - month decrease of 2.98%. The operating rate of domestic chlor - alkali enterprises in July was 58.01%, a month - on - month increase of 2.41% compared to June (83.01%) [50]. - **Operating rate**: The weekly operating rates of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda are presented, along with their trends [51]. - **Overhaul situation**: A list of chlor - alkali device overhauls is provided, including long - term shutdown capacities and overhauls in July. Some enterprises have completed overhauls and resumed production, while others have planned overhauls in August and September [57]. - **Flake caustic soda device operation**: The operating conditions of flake caustic soda devices of various manufacturers are described, including overhauls, normal operations, and planned overhauls [61]. 5. Import and Export - In June 2025, China's liquid caustic soda imports were 48,011 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 40.62% and a month - on - month decrease of 113.00%. The cumulative imports from January to June were 181,468 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 97.03%. Exports of liquid caustic soda were 291,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 32.31% and a month - on - month increase of 13.70%. The cumulative exports from January to June were 1.7255 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.79%. Imports of solid caustic soda were 862.84 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 63.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 44.67%. Exports of solid caustic soda were 59,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 79.32% and a year - on - year increase of 79.82% [65][68]. 6. Demand Side - **Alumina demand**: In July, the operating capacity of alumina enterprises was at a relatively high level. Although the supply - demand fundamentals had a certain negative impact on prices, the procurement demand from some downstream enterprises in the southern region and the short - term overhauls of some calcination devices in some enterprises led to a tight supply of spot goods in some areas, driving up the alumina price. The alumina market was also affected by macro - policies, but the actual impact on existing capacities was limited [73]. - **Viscose staple fiber demand**: In July, the domestic viscose staple fiber market was stable with fluctuations. The average monthly price was 12,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 84 yuan/ton compared to the previous month, a decline of 0.63%. The cost side weakened as the prices of raw materials decreased. The industry's supply increased as some previously shut - down or reduced - production devices resumed production. The inventory decreased, and the downstream demand increased slightly, resulting in more stable quotes from manufacturers and an increase in the number of signed contracts [74]. 7. Inventory - In July, the overall inventory of domestic liquid caustic soda factories maintained a high - level oscillation, while the inventory of flake caustic soda continued to decline. There were differences among different manufacturers in Shandong. Enterprises with low inventory pressure had a strong willingness to raise prices, while those with moderate inventory adjusted prices according to market conditions. As of August 1, 2025, the inventory of domestic liquid caustic soda factories was 266,300 tons, basically unchanged compared to June 27, 2025 (266,600 tons). The inventory of domestic flake caustic soda factories was 19,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 43.49% compared to May 2, 2025 [97]. 8. Valuation - The processing cost of caustic soda mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. Each ton of caustic soda production requires 1.51 tons of raw salt, accounting for about 12% - 18% of the total cost, and the power consumption per ton is about 2300 - 2400 kWh, accounting for about 60% of the total cost. In July, the cost side weakened, while the spot price of caustic soda strengthened, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali showed a recovery [103]. 9. Chlorine - consuming Downstream - The report presents data on the PVC benchmark spot price, PVC powder weekly operating rate, and the comprehensive profit of the calcium carbide method in the northwest integrated chlor - alkali industry. It also shows the production capacity utilization rate and production profit of products such as epoxy propane, epichlorohydrin, dichloromethane, and trichloromethane [115]. 10. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides data on the total production, cumulative production, export volume, net export volume, cumulative net export volume, apparent consumption, cumulative apparent consumption, consumption, cumulative consumption, and inventory changes of caustic soda from 2024 to 2025, along with their year - on - year growth rates [142].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Domestic "anti - involution" policies have entered the implementation stage. Multiple industries and departments have taken actions, and there may be more forceful policies in the future [3]. - China's economy in the first half of the year showed growth, with consumption supporting the growth. Overseas, the US economic situation has inflation, employment, and interest - rate - related changes [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Economic Situation - **GDP**: In the first half of 2025, GDP was 66.00 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. Q1 GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and Q2 increased by 5.2% [17]. - **Industrial Added Value**: From January to June, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.4% year - on - year. In June, the added value of the mining industry increased by 6.1%, manufacturing by 7.4%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water by 1.8% [18]. - **Real Estate Data**: In the first half of the year, real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. In June, relevant real - estate data such as sales area and new - construction area had different trends [17][18]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: In the first half of the year, fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8%, with private fixed - asset investment decreasing by 0.6%. In June, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.12% month - on - month [17][18]. - **Social Retail Consumption**: In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 24,545.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4,228.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8% [18]. - **Demand**: The purchasing manager index (PMI) in June showed an upward trend, indicating improved market demand [8]. - **Import and Export Data**: Specific data on export and import amounts in June are presented in the report, with different trends in monthly and annual comparisons [34]. - **Unemployment Rate**: The urban surveyed unemployment rate remained stable, and the employment situation in the US also had corresponding changes [6][36]. 3.2 Financial Situation - **Social Financing Data**: In June, the single - month new social financing was 4.20 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 90.08 billion yuan. The stock of social financing scale reached 430.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [37]. - **Credit Data**: In June, financial institutions' new RMB loans were 2.24 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11 billion yuan. Loans were divided into different sectors such as enterprises and residents [37]. - **Money Supply**: M2 balance was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. M1 balance was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The M2 - M1 gap narrowed [37]. 3.3 Price - Related - **CPI**: In June, China's CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, ending four consecutive months of decline. The core CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [5][47]. - **PPI**: In June, China's PPI's year - on - year decline expanded by 0.3 percentage points to 3.6% [5][47]. 3.4 Overseas Economy - **US Economy**: In June, the US CPI and core CPI increased, the unemployment rate decreased, and the employment market remained strong. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July was almost zero, and the probability in September was about 75% [4][6][56]. - **Eurozone Economy**: Relevant data such as HICP, retail sales index, and PMI in the Eurozone are presented in the report [15][16]. 3.5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Exchange Rates**: In July, the RMB exchange rate showed a two - way fluctuation pattern. Affected by the Fed's suspension of interest - rate hikes, the US dollar index fell, and the RMB - US dollar exchange rate fluctuated within a certain range [67]. - **Interest Rates**: Data on various interest rates such as DR007, SHIBOR, LPR, and bond yields are presented in the report, showing different trends [68][73][76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views 2.1. Soybean Meal - The downside space is limited, with support at the [2850] price level for the m2509 contract. [3] - Abroad, the good rate of US soybeans is relatively good, and the phased weather risk is limited. The upward driving force of CBOT soybeans is insufficient, and it is expected to maintain an operating range of 1000 - 1100 cents. Domestically, the expected arrival and crushing of imported soybeans remain at a high level, the supply of soybean meal continues to recover, and the downstream feed demand boost is limited. The basis of soybean meal spot is expected to be weak. From the cost side, the bottom space of CBOT soybeans is limited, and the import cost supports the price of soybean meal. [3] - In the short - term, affected by the decline in market sentiment and fundamental pressure, the futures market is expected to oscillate and correct. In the medium - to long - term, as the Sino - US relationship is undetermined, there are still concerns about soybean supply in the fourth quarter, and coupled with the seasonal recovery of downstream demand, the soybean meal futures market is expected to have an opportunity to strengthen. [3] 2.2. Rapeseed Meal - The downside space is limited, with support at the [2500] price level for the RM509 contract. [3] - Abroad, the global rapeseed inventory pressure in the 2024/25 season is limited, and the phased international rapeseed price is supported. In the 2025/26 season, the global rapeseed production is expected to recover, which may suppress the price center of rapeseed meal. Domestically, the near - month inventory is still relatively sufficient, and the far - month supply is expected to gradually tighten. The downstream aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the demand for rapeseed meal is expected to increase, but the supply of soybeans arriving in the next two months is loose, and the low spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is not conducive to the substitute consumption of rapeseed meal. The demand boost is expected to be limited. [3] - Overall, due to limited policy and fundamental support, the price of rapeseed meal is expected to adjust weakly following soybean meal. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Futures Data - DCE soybean meal futures: The 01 contract closed at 3059.00 this week, down 19 from last week, a decrease of 0.62%; the 05 contract closed at 2759.00, up 15 from last week, an increase of 0.55%; the 09 contract closed at 3021.00, down 35 from last week, a decrease of 1.15%. [12] - CZCE rapeseed meal futures: The 01 contract closed at 2405.00 this week, up 11 from last week, an increase of 0.46%; the 05 contract closed at 2373.00, up 21 from last week, an increase of 0.89%; the 09 contract closed at 2675.00, down 47 from last week, a decrease of 1.73%. [12] 3.2. US Soybean Supply and Demand - The excellent - good rate of US soybean production areas decreased slightly, and CBOT soybeans mainly oscillated. The US has reached trade agreements with Indonesia and Japan recently, and the market sentiment has improved. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US trade negotiations at the end of July. [16][17] - As of July 20, 2025, the excellent - good rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than the market expectation of 71%. As of the same week, the flowering rate of US soybeans was 62%, and the pod - setting rate was 20%. [17] - As of the week of July 18, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was 2.20 US dollars per bushel, a week - on - week decrease of 10.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.91%. [18] - As of July 22, about 8% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought. [17] - As of July 17, the net increase in US soybean export sales was 39.97 tons. [18] 3.3. South American Soybean Supply and Demand - The short - term Brazilian soybean premium continued to be strong, and the procurement for shipments after October was limited. Attention should be paid to the subsequent Sino - US trade policy changes. [29] - Brazil's soybean export sales are close to 70%. In Argentina, the soybean export tariff was restored in July, and farmers' sales enthusiasm declined. [30] - Anec estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in July were 12.11 million tons, and soybean meal exports were 2.4 million tons. [30] 3.4. CFTC Soybean and Soybean Meal Positions - As of July 15, 2025, the non - commercial net long position of CBOT soybeans was 286,869, and the non - commercial net long position of CBOT soybean meal was 179,629. [55][57] 3.5. Rapeseed Supply and Demand - Canada raised the output of old crops, and the output of new crops decreased slightly. The EU's yield per unit area is expected to be good. [59] - In the July USDA report, the global rapeseed output in the 2024/25 season was slightly increased by 165,000 tons month - on - month, a year - on - year decrease of 4.45 million tons. The ending inventory decreased by 2.31 million tons year - on - year to 9.09 million tons, and the stock - to - use ratio was 10.39%. [60] - As of July 20, Canada's rapeseed export volume increased by 151.12% week - on - week to 202,400 tons. As of the same date, Canada's rapeseed commercial inventory was 1.1823 million tons. [61] 3.6. Domestic Meal Supply and Demand - The recent arrival and crushing of domestic soybeans remain at a relatively high level, the supply pattern of soybean meal continues to be loose, and the spot basis is expected to run weakly. [71] - In June 2025, China imported 12.264 million tons of soybeans, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6544 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.15 million tons, an increase of 10.35%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import of soybeans was 49.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 889,000 tons, an increase of 1.83%. [73] - As of July 18, the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.3055 million tons, and the operating rate was 64.81%. The rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 59,000 tons, and the operating rate this week was 15.72%. [91] - As of July 18, the soybean inventory of 125 domestic oil mills was 6.4224 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 152,500 tons, a decrease of 2.32%; the soybean meal inventory was 998,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 112,200 tons, an increase of 12.66%. The rapeseed inventory of coastal oil mills increased by 16,000 tons week - on - week, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased. [103] - As of the week of July 23, the national soybean meal trading volume was 728,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 51,300 tons; the total提货 volume was 936,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,500 tons. [106]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC is likely to rise in the short - term but has limited upside potential, facing pressure at the [5500] price level [3]. - The supply of PVC shows a weakening trend, with high production maintained. Domestic and export demand is declining, and social inventory has been accumulating for three consecutive weeks. Although the current profit performance reflects a weak reality, under the policy expectations of capacity structure optimization, there is an increase in black and building material varieties. Attention should be paid to whether the rising coal price can repair the profits of the coal - based cost industry chain [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Fundamental Supply - Demand Situation - **Supply**: There is an expectation of tightened supply at the calcium carbide/PVC end. The recent sharp rise in coal prices may strongly support costs, and attention should be paid to the upward shift of the entire industrial chain price from coal prices to calcium carbide [9]. - **Demand - Inventory**: On July 25, the domestic PVC supply - side开工率 increased, enterprises received good orders, and market arrivals were normal. However, downstream procurement enthusiasm was poor, mainly from hedgers. The total inventory in East and South China continued to increase. The total inventory in the East and South China sample warehouses was 402,900 tons, up 3.65% from the previous period and down 26.93% year - on - year [10]. - **Demand - Calcium Carbide**: This week, the calcium carbide price slightly declined. The average calcium carbide industry开工率 rose to 72.20%, up 0.9% from the previous week. In the future, most calcium carbide plants may maintain normal operations, but the increase in开工率 may be limited due to peak - shaving production in Inner Mongolia and the summer electricity peak. PVC plants have many maintenance plans in July and August, so the demand for calcium carbide is expected to decrease. If there is an unexpected reduction in supply or the rising coal price is transmitted to the cost chain, the calcium carbide price may rebound [11][75]. - **Demand - Caustic Soda**: Most chlor - alkali enterprises are operating normally with sufficient supply. Some areas are supported by plant maintenance. In terms of downstream demand, the alumina industry provides rigid support, but non - aluminum industries perform averagely. Some enterprises face certain sales pressure, so the price has no strong upward driving force [12]. - **Demand - Production Capacity**: In the first quarter of 2025, 500,000 tons of production capacity were put into operation. 900,000 tons of production capacity are expected to be put into operation from July to August, with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of 6.37% [13]. - **Demand - Export**: This week, the export order volume of PVC production enterprises decreased by 11.66% week - on - week and increased by 56% year - on - year. Exports to India are expected to slow down in summer [14]. 3.2 Disk Data - This week, both PVC futures and spot prices rose. The basis discount to the disk increased, with the East China 09 basis weakening to around - 220. The 9 - 1 spread changed little, around - 113. The 09 contract position was around 860,000 lots, and the warehouse receipts increased to around 56,400 lots [21]. 3.3 Regional and Quality Spreads - **Regional Spread**: The spread between East and South China for calcium carbide - based PVC strengthened significantly to 33, and the spread between East and North China for calcium carbide - based PVC strengthened significantly to 223 [34]. - **Ethylene - Calcium Carbide Spread**: The ethylene - calcium carbide spread weakened to - 3 [34]. 3.4 Profit Performance - **Calcium Carbide - Based Profit**: The current calcium carbide - based production capacity accounts for 74%. In areas with limited cost fluctuations and a significant increase in PVC spot prices, profits in various regions have improved significantly. North China has achieved profitability. Northwest integrated enterprises' comprehensive profit has expanded to around 680 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive profit of purchasing calcium carbide in the Northwest is around 1,000 yuan/ton. Shandong's chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has turned from loss to profit at around 100 yuan/ton [45]. - **Ethylene - Based Profit**: The current ethylene - based production capacity accounts for about 23.5%. The profit of purchasing vinyl chloride is around the break - even point, and the profit of purchasing ethylene is a loss of 200 yuan/ton [46]. 3.5 Industrial Chain - Related Products - **Calcium Carbide - Based PVC Raw Material - Lanthanum Coke**: On July 25, the price of lanthanum coke remained stable. The average transaction price in the Shaanxi market was 580 - 630 yuan/ton. The开工率 of sample enterprises was 39.14%, unchanged from the previous week. In the future, the开工 rate may increase, and attention should be paid to the transmission of coal prices to lanthanum coke and calcium carbide prices [69]. - **Calcium Carbide - Based PVC Raw Material - Calcium Carbide**: On July 25, the calcium carbide price declined slightly. The average industry开工率 rose to 72.20%. In the future, most calcium carbide plants may maintain normal operations, but the increase in开工率 may be limited. PVC plants have many maintenance plans in July and August, so the demand for calcium carbide is expected to decrease. If there is an unexpected reduction in supply or the rising coal price is transmitted to the cost chain, the calcium carbide price may rebound [75]. - **Calcium Carbide - Based PVC Raw Material - Caustic Soda**: On July 25, the spot price of liquid caustic soda fluctuated slightly. The开工率 of sample enterprises was 84%, up 1.4% from the previous week, and the inventory was 408,400 tons, up 6.38% from the previous week. In the future, the supply is sufficient, and the price has no strong upward driving force [81]. 3.6 Supply - **Production Capacity Progress**: The production capacity growth rate in the third quarter is 3.18%, and the annual growth rate is expected to be 6.37%. Two ethylene - based plants of Fujian Wanhua and Bohua Development started trial production in July and are expected to achieve mass production in August. Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton ethylene - based plant is planned to be put into operation in the third quarter [85]. - **开工率 and Maintenance**: On July 25, the overall开工率 of PVC powder was 75.81%, up 0.84% from the previous week. There were new maintenance enterprises this week, and some previously maintained enterprises resumed production. The theoretical loss due to parking and maintenance this week was 71,640 tons, down 279 tons from the previous week [87]. 3.7 Import - Export - **Import**: In June 2025, the PVC import volume was 24,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 63.80%. The cumulative import from January to June was 124,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.51%. The import sources are mainly the United States and Northeast Asia, and the import dependence is about 1% [116]. - **Export**: In June 2025, the PVC export volume was 262,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.61%. The cumulative export from January to June was 1,960,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.20%. The main destination is India. This week, the export order volume of PVC production enterprises decreased by 11.66% week - on - week and increased by 56% year - on - year [116][125]. 3.8 Demand - **Downstream开工率**: Currently, the downstream开工率 is at a low level compared to the same period. This week, the开工 rates of the profile and film industries improved, while the pipe industry continued to decline. Domestic downstream product enterprises continued to purchase at low prices, resisted high - priced raw materials, and faced seasonal weakening due to high temperatures [137]. - **Terminal - Real Estate**: From January to June, real estate investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, new construction area decreased by 20% year - on - year, and sales area decreased by 3.5% year - on - year. The real estate market is still in a downturn, and PVC demand may continue to shrink [154]. 3.9 Inventory - **Production Enterprises**: As of July 24, the available inventory of PVC powder in sample production enterprises was - 467,150 tons, a decrease of 188,900 tons from the previous period. The factory inventory was 312,250 tons, a decrease of 3,250 tons from the previous period [169]. - **East and South China**: As of July 24, the original sample inventory in East China was 358,900 tons, up 3.97% from the previous period and down 29.50% year - on - year. The expanded sample inventory in East China was 587,200 tons, up 3.82% from the previous period and down 30.64% year - on - year. The sample inventory in South China was 44,000 tons, up 1.15% from the previous period and down 26.93% year - on - year [169].

Report Title - Policy and fundamentals are intertwined, and the oscillation of oils and fats continues [1][2][8] Core Views - Palm oil is in a stage of oscillating upward, and the price center is expected to rise in the later period. The p2509 contract is expected to be mainly in a strong oscillation. [3] - Soybean oil is prone to rise but has limited upward space in the short term. The y2509 contract has resistance at the price of 18,400. [3] - Rapeseed oil is also prone to rise but has limited upward space in the short term. The 01509 contract has resistance at the price of 9,800. [3] Week - on - Week Data Changes DCE Palm Oil - 01 contract: The closing price this week was 8,104.0, down 14 from last week, a decline of 0.17%. The 1 - 5 spread was 366.0, down 18 from last week, a decline of 4.69%. [9] - 05 contract: The closing price was 7,738.0, up 4 from last week, an increase of 0.05%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 406.0, up 20 from last week, a change of - 4.69%. [9] - 09 contract: The closing price was 8,144.0, down 16 from last week, a decline of 0.20%. The 9 - 1 spread was 40.0, down 2 from last week, a decline of 4.76%. [9] DCE Soybean Oil - 01 contract: The closing price was 8,928.0, down 4 from last week, a decline of 0.04%. The 1 - 5 spread was 270.0, down 18 from last week, a decline of 6.25%. [9] - 05 contract: The closing price was 8,658.0, up 14 from last week, an increase of 0.16%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 278.0, up 42 from last week, a change of - 13.12%. [9] - 09 contract: The closing price was 8,936.0, down 28 from last week, a decline of 0.31%. The 9 - 1 spread was 8.0, down 24 from last week, a decline of 75.00%. [9] CZCE Rapeseed Oil - 01 contract: The closing price was 9,401.0, down 108 from last week, a decline of 1.14%. The 1 - 5 spread was 91.0, down 38 from last week, a change of 11.00%. [9] - 05 contract: The closing price was 9,310.0, down 70 from last week, a decline of 0.75%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 147.0, up 59 from last week, a change of - 27.50%. [9] - 09 contract: The closing price was 9,457.0, down 129 from last week, a decline of 1.35%. The 9 - 1 spread was 56.0, down 21 from last week, a change of 22.46%. [9] International Market Analysis Southeast Asian Palm Oil - Malaysia: From July 1 - 20, according to ITS, palm oil exports decreased by 3.5%; according to AmSpec, exports decreased by 7.3%. The production in the first and middle of July increased by 6.19% month - on - month. [13] - Indonesia: In May, palm oil and refined product exports reached 2.86 million tons, a nearly 50% increase from the previous month. The production was 4.17 million tons, and the inventory decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2 million tons. [13] - India: From May 30, India halved the basic import tax of crude edible oils. In June and July, palm oil imports increased. [25] US Soybeans and Soybean Oil - CBOT soybeans oscillated weakly this week. The USDA reduced the 2025/26 US soybean production forecast by 5 million bushels to 4.335 billion bushels. [31] - As of July 20, the soybean flowering rate was 88%, the pod - setting rate was 28%, and the good - excellent rate was 68%. [36] South American Soybeans and Soybean Oil - Brazil: The 2025/26 production is expected to reach 175 million tons. In July, the estimated export volume is 12.11 million tons. [64] - Argentina: The 2024/25 production was estimated at 49.9 million tons. [64] Global Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The 2024/25 global rapeseed supply tightened marginally. The 2025/26 USDA forecast shows a restorative increase in production, and the global rapeseed stock - to - use ratio will slightly rise to 10.64%. [73] - Canada: The 2025 rapeseed planting area is expected to be 21.46 million acres. The 2025/26 production is estimated to be 17.8 million tons. [78] Domestic Oils and Fats Market Review - This week, the three major domestic oils oscillated. The performance of soybean and palm oils was better than that of rapeseed oil. [93] Future Outlook - Palm oil: The tight supply pattern in Southeast Asia has eased. It is expected to enter a relatively slow inventory - building cycle. The p2509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. [94] - Soybean oil: South American soybean export potential is expected to weaken in the third quarter. The y2509 contract is supported by CBOT soybeans. [95] - Rapeseed oil: The global rapeseed supply is tightening marginally. The 01509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. [95] Supply and Demand - As of July 18, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils was 2.3602 million tons, an increase of 62,200 tons from last week, a rise of 2.71%. [125]