2025年4月25日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 现货运价持续走低，叠加宏观情绪回落，主力合约大幅下跌，近期操作难度较高，风险偏好者可等待反弹机会 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 4月21日 | 4月18日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1508.44点, 较上期上涨7.6% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 921.24点,较上期下跌4.20% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 1368.41点, 较上期下跌13.8% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 839.73点,较上期下跌10.11% | | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1216.42点,较上期下跌0.46% | | 4月18日 | 4月18日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1370.58点,较上期下跌24.10点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI(综合指数) 1110.94点,较上期上涨0.3% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl欧线价格1316USD/TEU,较上期下跌2.9 ...

交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 4 月 25 日星期五 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-4-25） | | | | 铁矿：关税扰动反复，短期逻辑转向供需基本面。随着天气转暖和矿山检 修结束，二季度供给端扰动减少，发运和到港量有望逐步回升。当前钢厂 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铁矿石 | 逢高试空 | 利润尚可，铁水需求好于前期市场预期，基本面边际有所好转。钢厂铁矿 | | | | | 库存低位，五一小长假存补库备货预期，以及 4 月底政治局会议大概率围 | | | | | 绕稳地产和消费复苏进行部署，以推动经济稳定增长。反倾销和关税影响 | | | | | 仍将持续，出口依旧面临下滑，基于远月有粗钢限产及铁矿投产预期压制， | | | | | 激进的投资尝试铁矿 09 合约逢高空配。 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 煤焦：国内焦煤产量仍偏高，焦煤总体产地供应有所增加，受关税影响， | | | | | 钢材现货成交不佳，市场信心受挫，焦煤成交氛围有所转弱，市场对后续 | | | | | 预期并不乐观。目前多数焦企处于盈亏平衡状态 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 4 月 24 日星期四 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-4-24） | | | | 铁矿：海外避险情绪暂时降温，预计税率将大幅降低，短期逻辑转向供需 基本面。随着天气转暖和矿山检修结束，二季度供给端扰动减少，发运和 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 到港量有望逐步回升。当前钢厂利润尚可，铁水需求好于前期市场预期， | | | | | 港口库存延续四周去库，基本面边际有所好转。钢厂铁矿库存低位，五一 | | | | | 小长假存补库备货预期，以及 4 月底政治局会议大概率围绕稳地产和消费 | | | | | 复苏进行部署，以推动经济稳定增长，短期铁矿呈现反弹走势。反倾销和 | | | | | 关税影响仍将持续，出口依旧面临下滑，基于远月有粗钢限产及铁矿投产 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 预期压制，激进的投资尝试铁矿 09 合约逢高空配。 | | | | | 煤焦：国内焦煤产量仍偏高，焦煤总体产地供应有所增加，受关税影响， | | | | | 钢材现货成交不佳，市场信心受 ...

2025年4月24日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 美对华关税或将下调，市场情绪稍有缓和，盘面大幅震荡，近期操作难度较高，风险偏好者可等待反弹机会 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 4月18日 4月21日 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 921.24点, 较上期下跌4.20% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1508.44点, 较上期上涨7.6% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 839.73点, 较上期下跌10.11% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 1368.41点, 较上期下跌13.8% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1216.42点, 较上期下跌0.46% 4月18日 4月18日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1370.58点,较上期下跌24.10点 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1110.94点,较上期上涨0.3% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl欧线价格1316USD/TEU,较上期下跌2.9% 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (欧洲航线) 1486.14点,较上期下跌0.6% 上海出口集装箱运价指数 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The core logic for this year lies in the direction of international tariff policies. In April, the US will have repeated tariff policies towards countries such as Canada, Mexico, and Europe. As the pricing window for long - term contracts on the US routes approaches, retaliatory tariffs have become a significant disturbing factor for future shipping trends. Although shipping companies intend to support freight rates, price wars among alliances cannot be avoided. Attention should be paid to the price war between MSK and MSC in the second quarter and the feedback of terminal demand under radical tariff policies [5]. 3. Detailed Summaries 3.1 Freight Indexes - **SCFIS**: On April 21, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1508.44 points, up 7.6% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1368.41 points, down 13.8% from the previous period [3]. - **NCFI**: On April 18, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 921.24 points, down 4.20% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 839.73 points, down 10.11% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1216.42 points, down 0.46% from the previous period [3]. - **SCFI**: On April 18, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1370.58 points, down 24.10 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1316 USD/TEU, down 2.9% from the previous period; the SCFI price for the US West route was 2103 USD/FEU, down 4.5% from the previous period [3]. - **CCFI**: On April 18, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1110.94 points, up 0.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1486.14 points, down 0.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 811.65 points, up 1.9% from the previous period [3]. 3.2 PMI Data - **Eurozone**: In March, the preliminary value of the manufacturing PMI was 48.7 (expected 48.2), the service PMI was 50.4 (expected 51), and the composite PMI preliminary value rose to 50.4 (February was 50.2, the highest since August). The Sentix investor confidence index was - 2.9 (expected - 8.4, previous value - 12.7) [3]. - **China**: In February, the manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. The Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50.8, the highest in the past three months, and the labor contraction rate slowed down significantly [4]. - **US**: In March, the preliminary value of the S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.8 (the lowest in three months), the preliminary value of the service PMI was 54.3 (the highest in three months), and the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 53.5 (the highest in three months) [4]. 3.3 Market and Policy Analysis - **Tariff Policy**: In April, the US tariff policies towards Canada, Mexico, Europe and other countries are uncertain. The retaliatory tariffs have added a major disturbing factor to future shipping trends. Shipping companies want to support freight rates, but price wars among alliances are inevitable [5]. - **Market Performance**: On April 22, the main contract 2506 closed at 1456.8, down 4.24%, with a trading volume of 50,500 lots and an open interest of 38,700 lots, an increase of 939 lots from the previous day [5]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: Due to the volatile external policies in the short term, the operation is difficult. It is recommended to focus on medium - and long - term contracts if participating in each contract [5]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Against the background of tariff fermentation, attention can be paid to the reverse arbitrage structure. The window period is short and the volatility is large [5]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended that risk - preference investors try to go long lightly when the 2508 contract falls below 1600 points and the 2510 contract falls below 1200 points, and set stop - losses [5]. 3.5 Other Information - **GDP Forecast**: Bloomberg economists lowered the US GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1% to 1.3% and the global GDP growth forecast from 3.1% to 2.7%. It is expected that the global economic growth will remain at a low level of 2.8% in 2026 [6]. - **Anti - Dumping and Countervailing Duties**: The US Department of Commerce announced the final anti - dumping and countervailing duty rates on crystalline photovoltaic cells from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. Some Cambodian enterprises were imposed a countervailing duty of up to 3403.96%, and the "national entities" in Vietnam were imposed an anti - dumping duty of up to 271.28% [6].

交易提示 1 敬请参阅文后的免责声明 期市有风险投资须谨慎 交易提示 | | 沪深 300 | 震荡 | 录 0.14%，中证 500 股指收录-0.32%，中证 1000 股指收录-0.06%。多元 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 金融、港口板块资金流入，互联网、电脑硬件板块资金流出。人社部、财 | | | | | 政部、税务总局三部门联合印发《关于延续实施失业保险稳岗惠民政策措 | | | 中证 500 | 上行 | 施的通知》，支持企业稳定岗位，助力提升职业技能，兜牢失业保障底线； | | | | | 对不裁员少裁员的参保企业继续实施稳岗返还政策至 2025 年底，中小微 | | | 中证 1000 | 上行 | 企业按不超过企业及其职工上年度实际缴纳失业保险费的 60%返还、大型 | | | | | 企业返还比例不超过 30%。据外汇局统计，一季度，银行结汇 5290 亿美 | | | 2 年期国债 | 震荡 | 元，售汇 5866 亿美元；银行代客涉外收入 18871 亿美元，对外付款 18354 | | | | | 亿美元。外汇局表示，一季度，我国外贸克服外 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In May, the price increase announcement failed, and the market is in a pessimistic atmosphere with wide - range fluctuations and in a bottom - searching process. The short - term operation is difficult, and risk - preferring investors can wait for rebound opportunities [1][4]. - The core logic for this year lies in the trend of international tariff policies. In April, the US may have repeated tariff policies for countries such as Canada, Mexico, and Europe, adding a major disturbing factor to future shipping trends. Shipping companies intend to support prices, but cannot avoid price wars among alliances [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content a. Freight Index - On April 21, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1508.44 points, up 7.6% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1368.41 points, down 13.8% from the previous period [2]. - On April 18, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 921.24 points, down 4.20% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 839.73 points, down 10.11% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1216.42 points, down 0.46% from the previous period [2]. - On April 18, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1370.58 points, down 24.10 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1316 USD/TEU, down 2.9% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 2103 USD/FEU, down 4.5% from the previous period [2]. - On April 18, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1110.94 points, up 0.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1486.14 points, down 0.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 811.65 points, up 1.9% from the previous period [2]. b. PMI Data - In the eurozone, the March manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 48.7 (expected 48.2), the March services PMI preliminary value was 50.4 (expected 51), and the March composite PMI preliminary value rose to 50.4 (February was 50.2, the highest since August). The March Sentix investor confidence index was - 2.9 (expected - 8.4, previous value - 12.7) [2]. - China's February manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, with a significant recovery in manufacturing sentiment. China's February Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50.8, the highest in the past three months, and the employment contraction rate slowed down significantly [3]. - The US March S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, the lowest in three months; the March services PMI preliminary value was 54.3, the highest in three months; the March composite PMI preliminary value was 53.5, the highest in three months [3]. c. Market Situation and Strategies - Short - term strategy: Due to the volatile external policies in the short term, the operation is difficult. It is recommended to focus on medium - and long - term contracts if participating [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the background of tariff fermentation, attention can be paid to the reverse arbitrage structure, but the window period is short and the volatility is large [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended that risk - preferring investors try to go long lightly when the 2508 contract falls below 1600 points and the 2510 contract falls below 1200 points, and set stop - losses [4]. d. Contract Information - On April 18, the main contract 2506 closed at 1533.0, with a decline of 1.11%, a trading volume of 53,900 lots, and an open interest of 36,100 lots, a reduction of 817 lots from the previous day [4]. - The price limit for contracts from 2504 - 2602 is 16%. The company's margin for contracts from 2504 - 2602 is 26%. The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2504 - 2602 is 100 lots [4]. e. Other Information - Most shipping companies will continue to use the April - end freight rates in early May, and the price increase announcement in early May failed, with a generally bearish atmosphere and wide - range market fluctuations. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. - Maersk will adjust the Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) for routes from countries in the Far East (excluding China and Hong Kong, China) to the US and Canada, effective May 15, 2025, until further notice, with 1000 US dollars for small containers and 2000 US dollars for large containers [5]. - There are reports that Hamas is willing to reach a long - term cease - fire with Israel and hand over the governance control of Gaza to an independent institution, but the news has not been confirmed by Hamas [4][5]. - The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing issued a statement opposing the US 301 investigation measures against China's logistics, maritime, and shipbuilding sectors [5].

敬请参阅文后的免责声明 期市有风险投资须谨慎 交易提示 交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 4 月 22 日星期二 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-4-22） | | | | 铁矿：外部扰动延续但边际影响减弱，国内稳市场为主，市场情绪有一定 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 改善。本期澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量继续环比小幅增加，随着天气转暖和矿 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 山检修结束，二季度供给端扰动减少，发运和到港量有望逐步回升。钢企 | | | | | 盈利状况尚可，日均铁水产量保持高位，远超去年同期水平，港口铁矿石 | | | | | 去库较好，铁矿基本面边际好转。受反倾销和关税影响，出口面临下滑， | | | | | 板材需求降幅增大。5 月合约即将进入交割月，前期入场的铁矿石 59 正 | | | | | 套择机止盈，基于远月有粗钢限产及铁矿投产预期压制，激进的投资尝试 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 铁矿 09 合约逢高空配。 | | | | | 煤焦：国内焦煤产量仍偏高，焦煤总体产地供应有所增加，受关税影 ...

| SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | --- | | 4月18日 4月14日 | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）921.24点，较上期下跌4.20% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1422.42点，较上期下跌3.5% | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 839.73点, 较上期下跌10.11% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1129.45点，较上期上涨3.7% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1216.42点，较上期下跌0.46% | | 4月18日 4月18日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1370.58点，较上期下跌24.10点 | | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1110.94点，较上期上涨0.3% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1316USD/TEU, 较上期下跌2.9% | | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（欧洲航线）1486.14点，较上期下跌0.6% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线2103USD/FEU,较上期下跌4.5% | | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（美西航线） ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 4 月 21 日星期一 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-4-21） | | | | 铁矿：外部扰动延续但边际影响减弱，国内稳市场为主，市场情绪有一定 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 改善。本期澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量环比小幅增加，随着天气转暖和矿山检 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 修结束，二季度供给端扰动减少，发运量有望逐步回升。钢企盈利状况尚 | | | | | 可，日均铁水产量保持高位，已超去年同期水平。受反倾销和关税影响， | | | | | 板材需求降幅增大，出口面临下滑。铁矿供强需弱预期，叠加远月有粗钢 | | | | | 限产及铁矿投产预期压制，稳健的投资者仍可持有铁矿 05-09 正套，铁 | | | | | 矿 09 合约长期空配。 | | | 煤焦 | 偏弱 | 煤焦：焦炭首轮提涨落地，关税预期的反复影响，黑色板块仍承压，宏观 | | | | | 预期虽在，但未看到有效出台。国内从美国进口的煤炭以焦煤为主，本次 | | | | | 进一步提高关税，后期从美国进口的 ...