Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The core logic for this year lies in the direction of international tariff policies. In April, the US had fluctuations in tariff policies towards Canada, Mexico, Europe and other countries. As the pricing window for long - term contracts on US routes approaches, retaliatory tariffs have become a negotiation tool, adding significant uncertainties to the future of the shipping industry. Although shipping companies intend to support prices, price wars among alliances are inevitable. Two key aspects need attention: the price war between MSK and MSC in the second quarter and the feedback of terminal demand under aggressive tariff policies [4]. - The market is affected by factors such as tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates. The main contract 2506 closed at 1288.2 on May 7, with a decline of 1.83%, a trading volume of 53,600 lots, and an open interest of 39,500 lots, an increase of 3,642 lots from the previous day [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Shipping Freight Index - On May 5, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1,379.07 points, a 3.5% decrease from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1,320.69 points, a 7.3% increase from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1,340.93 points, a decrease of 6.91 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1,200 USD/TEU, a 4.76% decrease from the previous period; the SCFI price for the US - West route was 2,272 USD/FEU, a 6.12% increase from the previous period [2]. - On May 2, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 930.24 points, a 2.40% increase from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 764 points, a 4.04% decrease from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1,477.93 points, a 19.67% increase from the previous period. On April 30, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1,121.08 points, a 0.1% decrease from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1,497.15 points, a 0.2% decrease from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 837.43 points, a 1.7% increase from the previous period [2]. PMI Data - In March, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery in the manufacturing industry's prosperity. The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in March was 51.2, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous month, reaching a four - month high [3]. - In April, the preliminary value of the Eurozone's Manufacturing PMI was 48.7 (expected 47.5); the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 49.7 (expected 50.5); the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.9). The Eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence Index in April was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous value - 2.9) [2]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in April was 50.7 (expected 49.1, final value in March 50.2); the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 51.4 (expected 52.8, final value in March 54.4); the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 51.2 (expected 52.2, final value in March 53.5) [3]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Due to the volatile external policies in the short term, the operation is difficult. It is recommended to focus on medium - and long - term contracts if participating [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of tariff fermentation, attention can be paid to the reverse - spread structure. The window period is short and the fluctuations are large [4]. - Long - term strategy: Risk - preferring investors can try to go long lightly when the 2508 contract falls below 1,600 points and the 2510 contract falls below 1,200 points, set stop - losses, and take profits when the price rises [4]. Contract Information - On May 7, the main contract 2506 closed at 1288.2, with a decline of 1.83%, a trading volume of 53,600 lots, and an open interest of 39,500 lots, an increase of 3,642 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily limit for contracts 2504 - 2602 has been adjusted to 19%. The company's margin for contracts 2504 - 2602 has been adjusted to 29%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2504 - 2602 is 100 lots [4]. Geopolitical and Diplomatic Events - After a large - scale air strike by Israel, the Houthi armed forces in Yemen stated that they would not give up their support for the Gaza Strip at any cost and that the counter - attack would be devastating [4]. - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will visit Switzerland from May 9 - 12 and hold talks with the US side during the visit. China decided to engage with the US after careful evaluation, considering global expectations, Chinese interests, and the appeals of the US industry and consumers [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Short-term neutral, medium to long-term bearish, suggesting shorting the 09 contract on rallies [2] - Coking coal and coke: Bearish [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Neutral [2] - Glass: Bearish with a neutral bias [2] - CSI 300 Index: Neutral [4] - SSE 50 Index: Bullish [4] - CSI 500 Index: Bullish [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Bullish [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Neutral [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Neutral [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Bullish [4] - Gold: Bullish with a neutral bias [4] - Silver: Bullish with a neutral bias [4] - Pulp: Bearish with a neutral bias [5] - Logs: Neutral [5] - Soybean oil: Bearish with a neutral bias [5] - Palm oil: Bearish with a neutral bias [5] - Rapeseed oil: Bearish with a neutral bias [5] - Soybean meal: Bearish with a neutral bias [7] - Rapeseed meal: Bearish with a neutral bias [7] - No. 2 soybeans: Bearish with a neutral bias [7] - No. 1 soybeans: Neutral [7] - Rubber: Neutral [7] - PX: Neutral [7] - PTA: Suggest shorting processing spreads [7] - MEG: Hold and observe [7] - PR: Hold and observe [8] - PF: Hold and observe [8] - Plastics: Bearish with a neutral bias [8] - PP: Bearish with a neutral bias [8] - PVC: Bearish with a neutral bias [8] Core Viewpoints - The global iron ore shipment may increase seasonally in the coming weeks, while steel mills' production cuts will have a negative impact on the raw material end. The 09 iron ore contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [2] - The supply pressure of coking coal remains high, and the oversupply pattern of coke remains unchanged. Coal and coke generally follow the trend of finished products [2] - The supply pressure of rebar continues to rise, and the market has doubts about external demand and domestic demand. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2] - The glass demand is difficult to rebound significantly, and the fundamentals lack the impetus to push up prices [2] - The central bank will introduce a package of monetary policy measures, and the CSRC will promote long-term funds to enter the market, which is beneficial to the stock market [4] - The logic of the current round of gold price increase has not completely reversed, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4] - The supply of pulp is sufficient, and the demand side performs poorly, so the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - The supply pressure of logs decreases, and the demand is expected to improve marginally, with the price expected to stabilize and fluctuate at a low level [5] - The supply of oils and fats is abundant, and the consumption is in the off-season, so the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - The supply of soybean meal will gradually increase, and the market will shift from "tight reality" to "loose expectation", with the price expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - The supply of No. 2 soybeans will gradually become loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - The supply of rubber is expected to increase, and the demand is uncertain. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - PX price is expected to fluctuate with oil prices [7] - PTA supply and demand will destock, mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations [7] - MEG supply and demand are not bad in the short term, but the macro sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the price fluctuates widely [7] - The polyester bottle chip market may adjust weakly and steadily [8] - The polyester staple fiber market will continue to be in a game state, and the price may fluctuate within a narrow range [8] - The supply and demand of plastics are bearish, and the 05 contract will run weakly [8] - The supply pressure of PP decreases, and the price is expected to run weakly [8] - The PVC supply and demand are bearish, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8] Summary by Category Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: After the press conference, the iron ore futures price rose rapidly and then fell back. The global shipment may increase seasonally, and the steel mills' production cuts will have a negative impact on the raw material end. The short-term reality is strong, and the price may fluctuate and consolidate at the current position. In the medium and long term, the 09 contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [2] - Coking coal and coke: The supply pressure of coking coal remains high, and the oversupply pattern of coke remains unchanged. The second round of coke price increase has not been implemented, and the overall inventory has increased. Coal and coke generally follow the trend of finished products [2] - Rebar: After the press conference, the rebar futures price rose rapidly and then fell back. The supply pressure continues to rise, and the market has doubts about external demand and domestic demand. The inventory is at a low level, which supports the price. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2] - Glass: Some production lines have resumed production, and the daily melting volume has fluctuated slightly. The profit has improved, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The demand is difficult to rebound significantly, and the fundamentals lack the impetus to push up prices [2] Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: The central bank will introduce a package of monetary policy measures, and the CSRC will promote long-term funds to enter the market, which is beneficial to the stock market. The Fed maintains the interest rate unchanged, and the external market stabilizes. The stock index bulls can hold [4] - Treasury bonds: The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations, and the market liquidity is at a reasonable level. The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond rises, and the bulls can hold [4] Precious Metals - Gold: The logic of the current round of gold price increase has not completely reversed, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy may be short-term disturbing factors, and the tariff policy evolution dominates the market risk aversion sentiment [4] - Silver: The inflation data slows down, and the Fed does not cut interest rates as expected. The short-term price is affected by the Fed's policy and trade negotiations, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4] Pulp and Logs - Pulp: The spot market price is strong, but the cost price decline weakens the support for the pulp price. The papermaking industry's profitability is low, and the demand side performs poorly. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - Logs: The port shipment volume increases, and the supply pressure decreases. The spot market price is weak, and the demand is expected to improve marginally. The price is expected to stabilize and fluctuate at a low level [5] Oils and Fats and Meals - Oils and fats: The supply of oils and fats is abundant, and the consumption is in the off-season. The production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia increases seasonally, and the demand for biodiesel weakens. The supply of domestic soybeans increases, and the inventory is expected to rise. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - Meals: The supply of soybean meal will gradually increase, and the market will shift from "tight reality" to "loose expectation". The supply of No. 2 soybeans will gradually become loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7] Soft Commodities - Rubber: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is uncertain. The inventory accumulation speed slows down, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the impact of the macro and policy aspects [7] Chemicals - PX: The oil price fluctuates at a low level, and the PX price is expected to fluctuate with the oil price [7] - PTA: The raw material price fluctuates repeatedly, and the processing spread is at a certain level. The supply and demand will destock, mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations [7] - MEG: The supply and demand are not bad in the short term, but the macro sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the price fluctuates widely [7] - PR: The raw material support is weak, but there is certain support from the peak consumption season. The market may adjust weakly and steadily [8] - PF: The demand expectation is weak, and the oil price falls. The PTA supply shrinks, and the market will continue to be in a game state. The price may fluctuate within a narrow range [8] - Plastics: The supply and demand are bearish, and the 05 contract will run weakly. The cost end is affected by factors such as oil prices, and the supply side has new device production expectations [8] - PP: The supply pressure decreases, and the price is expected to run weakly. The cost end is affected by multiple factors, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement [8] - PVC: The supply and demand are bearish, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The cost end is stable, the inventory is destocked, and the spot transaction is average [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The core logic this year depends on international tariff policy trends. In April, the US may change tariff policies for countries like Canada, Mexico, and Europe. Near the pricing window for long - term contracts on US routes, retaliatory tariffs are added to negotiation means, increasing uncertainty in shipping. Attention should be paid to the price war between MSK and MSC in Q2 and the feedback of terminal demand under aggressive tariff policies [3] - Although the SCFIS is continuously declining, the spot freight rate is relatively stable, and investors are观望. The overall market fluctuates widely under the long - short game. Future attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Freight Rate Index - On April 25, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI, composite index) was 908.48 points, down 1.39% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS, European route) was 1379.07 points, down 3.5% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 796.14 points, down 5.19% from the previous period; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1320.69 points, up 7.3% from the previous period; the NCFI (US West route) was 1235.01 points, up 1.53% from the previous period [1] - On April 30, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1340.93 points, down 6.91 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI, composite index) was 1121.08 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1200 USD/TEU, down 4.76% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1497.15 points, down 0.2% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 2272 USD/FEU, up 6.12% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 837.43 points, up 1.7% from the previous period [1] Economic Data - In the eurozone, the April manufacturing PMI flash was 48.7 (expected 47.5), the April services PMI flash was 49.7 (expected 50.5), and the April composite PMI flash was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous 50.9). The April Sentix investor confidence index was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous - 2.9) [1] - In March, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The Caixin China manufacturing PMI in March was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a four - month high [1] - In April, the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash was 50.7 (expected 49.1, March final 50.2), the services PMI flash was 51.4 (expected 52.8, March final 54.4), and the composite PMI flash was 51.2 (expected 52.2, March final 53.5) [2] Market Conditions and Trading Strategies - On May 6, the main contract 2506 closed at 1299.5, up 0.10%, with a trading volume of 33,900 lots and an open interest of 35,900 lots, an increase of 2618 lots from the previous day [3] - Short - term strategy: Due to the volatile external policies, it is difficult to operate in the short term. It is recommended to focus on medium - to - long - term contracts if participating [3] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the background of tariff fermentation, attention can be paid to the reverse arbitrage structure, with a short window period and large fluctuations [3] - Long - term strategy: Risk - preferring investors can try to go long with a light position when the 2508 contract falls below 1600 points and the 2510 contract falls below 1200 points, and set stop - losses [3] - Circuit breakers: For contracts from 2504 to 2602, the circuit breaker is adjusted to 19% [3] - Margin: For contracts from 2504 to 2602, the margin is adjusted to 29% [3] - Daily opening limit: For all contracts from 2504 to 2602, the daily opening limit is 100 lots [3]

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 5 月 7 日星期三 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-5-7） | | | | 周，全球铁矿发运或季节性回升，钢厂高炉复产带动铁水产量维持高位， | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 铁矿：今日一揽子金融政策支持稳市场预期，黑色夜盘受到支撑。未来几 | | | | | 全国日均铁水产量 245.42 万吨，环比增 1.07 万吨。按目前铁水走势看，5 | | | 铁矿石 | 逢高试空 | 月份将是钢材产量的峰值，同时钢材出口受关税扰动风险上升，国内需求 | | | | | 步入季节性淡季，钢厂销售压力加剧或导致利润收缩，自发性减产还是被 | | | | | 动减产，其减产的总量都对原料端形成利空。短期铁矿基本面矛盾不突出， | | | | | 盘面反弹态势，中长期来看，考虑到钢厂限产，铁水或见顶回落以及中美 | | | | | 贸易摩擦延续，铁矿 09 合约逢高试空，关注政策落地情况。 | | | | | 煤焦：进口方面，蒙古口岸通关量维持低位，叠加竞拍市场持续低迷，蒙 | | | 煤焦 ...

美国4月标普全球制造业PM1初值50.7，预期49.1，3月终值50.2; 服务业PM1初值51.4，预期52.8，3月终值54.4; 综合PM1初值51.2，预期 52.2, 3月终值53.5。 | 对于今年核心逻辑的预判在于国际关税政策走向，4月美国将对 | | | --- | --- | | 加拿大、墨西哥、欧洲等国家的关税政策再出反复,临近美线长 | | | 协定价窗口,报复性关税被加入谈判手段,对未来海运走向增加 | 短期策略:短期外盘政策动荡,操作难度较大,各合约若要参与建 | | 一个较大的扰动因素,在运价上各船司有意挺价,但绕不开联盟 | 议以中长线为主。 | | 间的价格战。综上述,我们认为一需要关注MSK与MSC在第二 | 套利策略:关税发酵背景下,可关注反套结构,窗口期较短,波动 | | 炭 季度开展的价格战问题,二是激进的关税政策下终端需求的反馈 | 较大。 | | | 长期策略:建议风险偏好者可尝试2508合约跌至1600点以下轻仓 | | | 试多，2510合约1200点以下轻仓试多，设置好止损。 | | 4月30日主力合约2506收盘1324.3, 涨幅为3.42%, 成交量 | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The core logic for this year lies in the direction of international tariff policies. In April, the US may introduce tariff policy changes for countries such as Canada, Mexico, and Europe, adding uncertainty to future shipping trends. Attention should be paid to the price war between MSK and MSC in Q2 and the feedback of terminal demand under aggressive tariff policies [3]. - The spot freight rate continues to decline, with short - term external policies being unstable and difficult to operate. It is recommended to focus on medium - to long - term operations for each contract. In the context of tariff issues, the reverse arbitrage structure can be considered, but the window period is short and the volatility is high. Risk - preferring investors can try to go long lightly when the 2508 contract falls below 1600 points and the 2510 contract falls below 1200 points, and set stop - losses [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Freight Index - On April 28, the Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 908.48 points, down 1.39% from the previous period; the Shanghai Containerized Freight Settlement Index (SCFIS) (European route) was 1429.39 points, down 5.2%; the NCFI (European route) was 796.14 points, down 5.19%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1368.41 points, down 10.1%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1235.01 points, up 1.53% [1]. - On April 25, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1347.84 points, down 22.74 points from the previous period; the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1122.40 points, up 1.0%; the SCFI European route price was 1260 USD/TEU, down 4.26%; the CCFI (European route) was 1499.50 points, up 0.9%; the SCFI US West route was 2141 USD/FEU, up 1.81%; the CCFI (US West route) was 823.14 points, up 1.4% [1]. 3.2 Economic Data - Eurozone's April manufacturing PMI was 48.7 (expected 47.5), services PMI was 49.7 (expected 50.5), and composite PMI was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.9). The April Sentix investor confidence index was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous value - 2.9) [1]. - China's February manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the March Caixin China manufacturing PMI was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a four - month high [1]. - The US April S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 50.7 (expected 49.1, March final value 50.2), services PMI was 51.4 (expected 52.8, March final value 54.4), and composite PMI was 51.2 (expected 52.2, March final value 53.5) [2]. 3.3 Market Conditions - On April 29, the main contract 2506 closed at 1275.6, down 7.83%, with a trading volume of 54,900 lots and an open interest of 37,600 lots, a decrease of 2001 lots from the previous day [3]. - The spot freight rate maintains a downward trend. Under the game between long and short positions, short - selling sentiment slightly prevails, and the market fluctuates at a low level [3]. 3.4 Policy and Geopolitical Events - In April, the US may introduce tariff policy changes for countries such as Canada, Mexico, and Europe, and retaliatory tariffs are added to the negotiation means, increasing uncertainty to future shipping trends [3]. - On April 28, the US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced sanctions on three ships and their owners supporting the Houthi armed forces in Yemen [5]. 3.5 Strategy Suggestions - Short - term strategy: Due to the unstable external policies in the short term, it is difficult to operate. It is recommended to focus on medium - to long - term operations for each contract [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of tariff issues, the reverse arbitrage structure can be considered, but the window period is short and the volatility is high [4]. - Long - term strategy: Risk - preferring investors can try to go long lightly when the 2508 contract falls below 1600 points and the 2510 contract falls below 1200 points, and set stop - losses [4]. 3.6 Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts from 2504 to 2602 is adjusted to 19% [4]. - The margin for contracts from 2504 to 2602 is adjusted to 29% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2504 to 2602 is 100 lots [4]. 3.7 Marine Economy - In Q1, the initial total marine production value was 2.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%, 0.3 percentage points higher than the GDP growth rate [5].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The core logic for this year lies in the direction of international tariff policies. In April, the US may change its tariff policies towards countries like Canada, Mexico, and Europe. With the approaching pricing window for long - term contracts on US routes, retaliatory tariffs are added to the negotiation means, which adds a major disturbing factor to the future shipping trend. Shipowners intend to support prices, but price wars among alliances are inevitable. Attention should be paid to the price war between MSK and MSC in the second quarter and the feedback of terminal demand under aggressive tariff policies [3]. - The spot freight rate maintains a downward trend. Under the game between long and short positions, the short - selling sentiment slightly prevails, and the market fluctuates at a low level. Future attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and the spot freight rate [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Freight Rate Index - On April 28, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI, composite index) was 908.48 points, down 1.39% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS, European route) was 1429.39 points, down 5.2% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 796.14 points, down 5.19% from the previous period; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1368.41 points, down 10.1% from the previous period; the NCFI (US West route) was 1235.01 points, up 1.53% from the previous period [1]. - On April 25, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1347.84 points, down 22.74 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI, composite index) was 1122.40 points, up 1.0% from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1260 USD/TEU, down 4.26% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1499.50 points, up 0.9% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route price was 2141 USD/FEU, up 1.81% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 823.14 points, up 1.4% from the previous period [1]. PMI and Investor Confidence Index - The eurozone's April manufacturing PMI was 48.7 (expected 47.5), the service PMI was 49.7 (expected 50.5), and the composite PMI was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.9). The eurozone's April Sentix investor confidence index was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous value - 2.9) [1]. - The US April S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 50.7 (expected 49.1, March final value 50.2), the service PMI was 51.4 (expected 52.8, March final value 54.4), and the composite PMI was 51.2 (expected 52.2, March final value 53.5) [2]. Market Conditions - On April 29, the main contract 2506 closed at 1275.6, with a decline of 7.83%, a trading volume of 54,900 lots, and an open interest of 37,600 lots, a decrease of 2001 lots from the previous day [3]. Strategies - Short - term strategy: Due to the volatile external policies in the short term, the operation is difficult. If participating in each contract, it is recommended to focus on the medium - and long - term [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the background of tariff fermentation, the reverse arbitrage structure can be concerned. The window period is short and the fluctuation is large [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended that risk - preferring investors can try to go long lightly when the 2508 contract falls below 1600 points and the 2510 contract falls below 1200 points, and set stop - losses [4]. Policy Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2504 to 2602 is adjusted to 19% [4]. - The margin for contracts from 2504 to 2602 is adjusted to 29% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2504 to 2602 is 100 lots [4]. Other Information - On April 28, the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced sanctions on three ships and their owners supporting the Houthi armed forces in Yemen [5]. - In the first quarter, the total ocean production value was 2.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%, 0.3 percentage points higher than the GDP growth rate [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Recommend shorting at high prices [2] - Coking coal and coke: Sideways [2] - Rebar and wire rod: Sideways [2] - Glass: Sideways [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Sideways [4] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Sideways [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Sideways [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Sideways [4] - Gold: High - level sideways [4] - Silver: High - level sideways [5] - Pulp: Weak sideways [5] - Logs: Sideways [5] - Soybean oil: Weak sideways [5] - Palm oil: Weak sideways [5] - Rapeseed oil: Weak sideways [5] - Soybean meal: Weak sideways [7] - Rapeseed meal: Weak sideways [7] - Soybean No. 2: Weak sideways [7] - Soybean No. 1: Sideways [7] - Rubber: Sideways [7] - PX: Sideways [7] - PTA: Sideways [7] - MEG: Low - level range [7] - PR: Hold off [8] - PF: Hold off [8] - Plastic: Weak sideways [8] - PP: Weak sideways [8] - PVC: Weak sideways [8] Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the iron ore market are gradually weakening due to repeated tariff disturbances and the resurgence of crude steel production restrictions. The supply of coking coal and coke is in an oversupply situation, and the market is pessimistic. The steel market is affected by policies and demand, with a cautious outlook. The glass market has weak demand and high inventory, with a short - term low - level sideways trend. The stock index market has a positive outlook with the easing of external market risks. The bond market is under pressure, and long positions in bonds should be reduced. The precious metals market is affected by multiple factors, with high - level sideways trends expected. The pulp market has weak demand and falling prices. The forest products market has marginal improvement, with a sideways trend. The oil and fat market has sufficient supply and is expected to be weak sideways. The rubber market has weak short - term driving forces and is expected to be weak sideways. The chemical product market is affected by raw material prices and supply - demand relationships, with mostly sideways or weak sideways trends [2][4][5][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: Tariff disturbances and crude steel production restrictions have led to a weakening of fundamentals. Overseas iron ore shipments are increasing, and with the improvement of weather and the end of mine maintenance, shipments and arrivals are expected to rise in the second quarter. Steel mill profits are okay, but there is an expectation of a peak in molten iron production, and market sentiment is pessimistic. Radical investors can hold a light position in the iron ore 09 contract and avoid uncertainties during the May Day holiday [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Domestic coking coal production is still high, and supply has increased. Affected by tariff policies, steel spot trading is poor, and market confidence is frustrated. Most coking enterprises are at the break - even point, and the second round of coke price increases has not been implemented. The supply of coke is in an oversupply situation, and the overall market follows the trend of finished products [2] - **Rebar**: At the beginning of the month, the tariff impact landed, but the total reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut tools have not been implemented. The market is cautious. At the end of the month, the crude steel policy has an impact, and the supply - side contraction expectation supports steel prices. Rebar is at a neutral valuation level, and cost support is strengthening. Demand is falling, and there are signs of a peak. It is recommended that investors hold a light position during the May Day holiday [2] - **Glass**: The conversion of 9 glass coal - fired production lines in Shahe City to clean gas has increased the cost of the far - month contract, making the far - month contract stronger than the near - month contract. Recently, coal prices have fallen rapidly, and the profit of coal - fired glass has improved. The start - up rate and daily output of float glass have declined, and supply has decreased slightly. Downstream demand is still weak, and inventory has started to accumulate. It is recommended to hold a light position during the May Day holiday and pay attention to spot trading, macro policies, and inventory changes [2] Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures. The inflow and outflow of funds in different sectors were different. With the stabilization of the external market and the easing of risk - aversion sentiment, long positions in stock index futures can be held [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has decreased, and the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations. Interest rates are fluctuating, and the market is under pressure. Long positions in Treasury bonds should be reduced [4] - **Precious Metals**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and central bank gold purchases are the key. It has multiple attributes such as currency, finance, and risk - aversion. The current logic for the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed, and short - term fluctuations may be caused by the Fed's interest rate and tariff policies. Silver is also in a high - level sideways trend, and it is necessary to pay attention to inflation and employment data [4][5] Forest Products - **Pulp**: The spot market price of pulp has continued to decline, and the cost price has also decreased, weakening the support for pulp prices. The profitability of the papermaking industry is low, and demand is weak. Pulp prices are expected to be weak sideways [5] - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports has increased, but demand has declined after reaching a phased high. The arrival volume in the near future has decreased, and supply pressure has eased. The inventory at ports has remained stable. The cost has decreased, and the market price is expected to be sideways [5] Oil and Fats - The Southeast Asian palm oil is in the seasonal production - increasing cycle, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. South American soybeans have a record - high harvest, and domestic soybean arrivals have increased significantly. The supply of the three major oils is sufficient, and with the end of pre - holiday stocking, the oil and fat market is expected to be weak sideways [5] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply side is expected to increase in May as the main domestic and overseas production areas start tapping. The demand side has weak sales in the semi - steel tire industry, and the overall demand is uncertain. The inventory accumulation speed has slowed down, and the price is expected to be weak sideways. Attention should be paid to the macro and policy aspects [7] Chemical Products - **PX**: There is a lack of positive drivers, and oil prices may fluctuate within a narrow range. The domestic PX load is fluctuating, and the demand from the PTA side has declined. PX prices are expected to follow oil price fluctuations [7] - **PTA**: Raw material prices are volatile, and the PXN spread is around $184/ton, and the spot TA processing margin is around 429 yuan/ton. The TA load has increased, and the polyester load is maintained. The short - term supply - demand situation is in a state of inventory reduction, mainly affected by raw material prices [7] - **MEG**: The domestic MEG load has increased, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. The polyester load is stable. Raw material prices are weak, and the market fluctuates widely due to macro - sentiment fluctuations [7] - **Plastic Products**: Most chemical products are affected by raw material prices, supply - demand relationships, and policies. The market is in a sideways or weak sideways trend. For example, the plastic market is affected by concerns about economic decline and new device production, with a weak outlook. The PP market is affected by falling oil prices and supply - demand relationships, with a weak sideways trend. The PVC market has a decline in upstream and downstream starts, and inventory has decreased, but the market is still expected to be weak sideways [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot freight rate trend remains pessimistic, with wide fluctuations in the futures market due to the game between bulls and bears. It is difficult to operate in the short term, and risk - takers can wait for rebound opportunities [1]. - The core logic for this year lies in the direction of international tariff policies. The repeated tariff policies of the US in April and the upcoming US - line long - term agreement pricing window add significant disturbances to future shipping trends [1]. - Attention should be paid to the price war between MSK and MSC in the second quarter and the feedback of terminal demand under aggressive tariff policies [1]. Summary by Related Content Freight Index Data - On April 25, the NCFI (composite index) was 908.48 points, down 1.39% from the previous period; the SCFIS (European route) was 1508.44 points, up 7.6%; the NCFI (European route) was 796.14 points, down 5.19%; the SCFIS (US - West route) was 1368.41 points, down 13.8%; the NCFI (US - West route) was 1235.01 points, up 1.53% [1]. - On April 25, the SCFI was 1347.84 points, down 22.74 points from the previous period; the CCFI (composite index) was 1122.40 points, up 1.0%; the SCFI European route price was 1260 USD/TEU, down 4.26%; the CCFI (European route) was 1499.50 points, up 0.9%; the SCFI US - West route was 2141 USD/FEU, up 1.81%; the CCFI (US - West route) was 823.14 points, up 1.4% [1]. Economic Data of Different Regions - In the Eurozone, the March manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 48.7 (expected 48.2), the services PMI preliminary value was 50.4 (expected 51), the composite PMI preliminary value rose to 50.4 (50.2 in February, the highest since August), and the Sentix investor confidence index was - 2.9 (expected - 8.4, previous value - 12.7) [1]. - In China, the February manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50.8, the highest in the past three months with a significantly slower contraction rate of employment [1]. - In the US, the March S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8 (the lowest in 3 months), the services PMI preliminary value was 54.3 (the highest in 3 months), and the composite PMI preliminary value was 53.5 (the highest in 3 months) [1]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Due to the volatile external policies, it is difficult to operate. It is recommended to participate in contracts with a medium - to - long - term perspective [1]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of tariff issues, attention can be paid to the reverse - spread structure, with a short window period and large fluctuations [1]. - Long - term strategy: Risk - takers can try to go long lightly when the 2508 contract falls below 1600 points and the 2510 contract falls below 1200 points, and set stop - losses [1]. Market Conditions and Other Information - On April 25, the main contract 2506 closed at 1365.1, down 2.92%, with a trading volume of 64,300 lots and an open interest of 40,300 lots, a decrease of 4120 lots from the previous day [1][2]. - The spot freight rate trend is pessimistic, and the Sino - US tariff issue is intensifying, leading to strong market wait - and - see sentiment and wide - range fluctuations in the futures market. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [1][2]. - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2504 to 2602 is 16%, the margin is 26%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2504 to 2602 is 100 lots [1][2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Recommend shorting at high prices [2] - Coking coal and coke: Sideways [2] - Rebar and wire rod: Sideways [2] - Glass: Sideways [2] - Soda ash: Sideways [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Sideways [4] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Sideways [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Sideways [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Sideways [4] - Gold: Sideways [4] - Silver: Sideways [4] - Soybean oil: Sideways [4] - Palm oil: Sideways [4] - Rapeseed oil: Sideways [6] - Soybean meal: Sideways to weak [6] - Rapeseed meal: Sideways to weak [6] - Soybean No. 2: Sideways to weak [6] - Soybean No. 1: Sideways [6] - Rubber: Sideways [6] - Pulp: Weak sideways [6] - Logs: Sideways [7] - PX: Wait - and - see [7] - PTA: Wait - and - see [7] - MEG: Operate in the low - range [7] - PR: Wait - and - see [7] - PF: Wait - and - see [7] - Plastic: Sideways [7] - PP: Sideways [7] - PVC: Sideways [8] Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is affected by tariff disturbances and potential crude steel production restrictions, with supply expected to increase in Q2 and demand facing uncertainties [2] - The coking coal and coke market is under pressure due to high domestic production, poor steel spot sales, and unfulfilled price increases [2] - The rebar market is in a neutral valuation, with supply contraction expected from production restrictions and weakening demand [2] - The glass market has cost increases in the far - month contracts, but demand remains weak due to the real estate adjustment [2] - The stock index market shows positive signs with improved corporate profits and policy support, and long - positions can be held [4] - The Treasury bond market has a complex situation with flat yields and changing short - term rates, and long - positions can be reduced [4] - The precious metal market is influenced by central bank purchases, inflation, and geopolitical factors, with short - term uncertainties [4] - The oil and fat market is facing supply increases from Southeast Asian palm oil and South American soybeans, and is expected to be volatile [4][6] - The rubber market has supply increases and weakening demand, and is expected to be weak sideways [6] - The pulp market has falling costs and weak demand, and is expected to be weak [6] - The log market has marginal improvement in fundamentals and is expected to be sideways [7] - The petrochemical products market is affected by raw material prices, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical factors, with different trends for each product [7][8] Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Supply is expected to increase in Q2 as weather improves and mine maintenance ends. Steel mills may replenish stocks before the May Day holiday, but export is still under pressure due to anti - dumping and tariffs. Radical investors can hold the Iron Ore 09 contract [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Domestic coking coal production is high, and the market is affected by tariffs and poor steel sales. Coke production has increased, but the second price increase has not been implemented. The overall market follows the trend of finished steel products [2] - **Rebar and wire rod**: After the tariff impact at the beginning of the month, the market is cautious. Supply may contract due to production restrictions, and demand is showing signs of peaking, especially in exports [2] - **Glass**: Cost increases in the far - month contracts due to energy - source conversion. Supply has slightly decreased, and demand is still weak due to the real estate adjustment. Inventory has been decreasing, but pressure remains [2] - **Soda ash**: No specific additional information other than the rating of sideways [2] Financial Industry - **Stock Index**: Industrial enterprise profits have improved, and the government emphasizes policy support. With the stabilization of the external market and reduced risk - aversion sentiment, long - positions can be held [4] - **Treasury Bond**: Yields are flat, short - term rates are changing, and the central bank conducts reverse - repurchase operations. With the easing of risk - aversion, long - positions can be reduced [4] - **Precious Metals**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, influenced by central bank purchases, inflation, and geopolitical factors. Silver is also affected by market sentiment and economic data, with short - term uncertainties [4] Oil and Fat Industry - **Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil**: Southeast Asian palm oil is in the production - increasing season, and South American soybeans have a record harvest. Supply is expected to increase, and the market is expected to be volatile [4][6] - **Soybean meal and rapeseed meal**: With a large amount of imported soybeans arriving in Q2, supply will increase, and demand may become more cautious after short - term stocking. The market is expected to be weak sideways [6] - **Soybean No. 1 and No. 2**: Supply will gradually become more abundant as South American soybeans arrive, and the market is expected to be sideways to weak [6] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply is increasing as the production season starts, and demand is weakening with the approaching May Day holiday. Inventory is still relatively high, and the market is expected to be weak sideways [6] - **Pulp**: The cost of raw materials is decreasing, and demand from the paper - making industry is weak. The market is expected to be weak [6] - **Logs**: The fundamentals are improving marginally, and the market is expected to be sideways [7] Petrochemical Industry - **PX and PTA**: Prices are affected by raw material prices, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical factors, and the market is in a wait - and - see state [7] - **MEG**: Supply and demand are currently not bad, but the market is volatile due to macro - sentiment fluctuations [7] - **PR and PF**: The PR market is strong due to factory support, and the PF market may be slightly warmer but faces pressure [7] - **Plastic, PP, and PVC**: These markets are affected by raw material prices, supply - demand relationships, and potential tariff policies. They are expected to be sideways, with inventory and production - capacity utilization being important factors [7][8]