Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Pessimistic sentiment has slightly eased, with the market fluctuating widely under the game between bulls and bears. It is difficult to operate in the near term, and risk - takers can wait for rebound opportunities [1] - The tariff policy of the United States in April will add a large disturbing factor to the future shipping trend, and the price war between shipping alliances needs to be concerned [4] - Market bearish factors have slightly weakened their impact on the market. The tariff war may delay the peak season of the European line, and the market is fluctuating at a low level. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4] Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On April 14, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1422.42 points, down 3.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1129.45 points, up 3.7% from the previous period [2] - On April 11, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 961.61 points, down 2.10% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 934.17 points, up 1.76% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1222.05 points, down 17.95% from the previous period [2] - On April 11, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1394.68 points, up 1.90 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1356 USD/TEU, up 1.5% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 2202 USD/FEU, down 4.8% from the previous period [2] - On April 11, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1107.28 points, up 0.4% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1495.45 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 796.27 points, up 2.5% from the previous period [2] Economic Data - In the eurozone, the preliminary manufacturing PMI in March was 48.7 (expected 48.2), the preliminary services PMI was 50.4 (expected 51), and the preliminary composite PMI rose to 50.4 (50.2 in February, the highest since August). The Sentix investor confidence index was - 2.9 (expected - 8.4, previous value - 12.7) [2] - China's manufacturing PMI in February was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50.8, the highest in three months, with a significantly slower contraction rate of employment [3] - In the US, the preliminary manufacturing PMI in March was 49.8 (the lowest in three months), the preliminary services PMI was 54.3 (the highest in three months), and the preliminary composite PMI was 53.5 (the highest in three months) [3] Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Risk - takers can try to go long lightly when the 2508 contract falls below 1600 points and the 2510 contract falls below 1200 points, and set stop - losses [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the background of tariff fermentation, attention can be paid to the reverse arbitrage structure, but the window period is short and the fluctuation is large [4] - Long - term strategy: Currently, the far - month contracts are deeply discounted. All profits have been recommended to be taken. It is recommended to wait for the price war in April to be clear and the far - month contracts to adjust to a suitable price before making a layout [4] Market Conditions of Main Contracts - On April 17, the main contract 2506 closed at 1555.2, down 1.67%, with a trading volume of 66,900 lots and an open interest of 36,900 lots, an increase of 506 lots from the previous day [4] Other Information - Maersk will adjust the peak - season surcharge (PSS) for routes from Far - East countries (excluding China and Hong Kong, China) to the US and Canada, effective May 15, 2025, until further notice. The PSS is 1000 US dollars for 20 - foot containers and 2000 US dollars for 40 - foot containers [5]

2025年4月17日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 美国再度提高对华关税,悲观情绪下盘面持续承压下行,近期操作难度较高,风险偏好者可等待反弹机会 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 4月14日 | 4月11日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1422.42点，较上期下跌3.5% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）961.61点，较上期下跌2.10% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1129.45点，较上期上涨3.7% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 934.17点，较上期上涨1.76% | | 4月11日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1222.05点，较上期下跌17.95% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1394.68点，较上期上涨1.90点 | 4月11日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1356USD/TEU, 较上期上涨1.5% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1107.28点，较上期上涨0.4% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航 ...

交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 4 月 17 日星期四 交易提示 | | | | 铁矿：近期铁矿石市场行情主要受到宏观因素影响，关税预期的反复，盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 面波动加剧。本期澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量环比小幅增加，随着天气转暖和 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 矿山检修结束，二季度供给端扰动减少，发运量有望逐步回升。钢企盈利 | | | | | 状况尚可，日均铁水产量继续环比小幅回升，已超去年同期水平。受反倾 | | | | | 销和关税影响，板材需求降幅增大，出口面临下滑。铁矿供强需弱预期， | | | | | 叠加远月有粗钢限产及铁矿投产预期压制，稳健的投资者仍可持有铁矿 | | | | | 05-09 正套，铁矿 09 合约长期空配。 | | | | | 煤焦：焦炭首轮提涨落地，叠加宏观预期偏强，盘面下方受到支撑。国内 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 从美国进口的煤炭以焦煤为主，本次进一步提高关税，后期从美国进口的 | | | | | 焦煤将受到影响，同时从蒙古、俄罗斯、澳大利亚增加进口来替代美国进 | | ...

2月中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.2%，比上月上升1.1个百分点，制造业景气水平明显回升。中国2月财新制造业PMI 50.8，近三个月最高，用 工收缩率明显放缓。 美国 3 月标普全球制造业 PM 初值录得49.8，为 3 个月以来新低。美国 3 月标普全球服务业 PMI 初值录得 54.3，为 3 个月以来新高。美国 3 月标普全 球综合 PMI 初值录得 53.5, 为 3个月以来新高。 对于今年核心逻辑的预判在于国际关税政策走向，4月美国将对加拿 大、墨西哥、欧洲等国家的关税政策再出反复,临近美线长协定价窗 口,报复性关税被加入谈判手段,对未来海运走向增加一个较大的扰 动因素，在运价上各船司有意挺价，但绕不开联盟间的价格战。综上 述,我们认为一需要关注MSK与MSC在第二季度开展的价格战问 题,二是激进的关税政策下终端需求的反馈。 4月15日主力合约2506收盘1600.1, 跌幅为7.72%, 成交量5.54万 手,持仓量3.54万手,较上日增仓2304手。 关税战引发对全球航运的担忧，也对市场带来消极扰动，MSK上涨 美线旺季附加费,盘面承压低位震荡。之后需对关税政策、中东局势 以及现货运 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 4 月 16 日星期三 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-4-16） | | | | 铁矿：近期铁矿石市场行情主要受到宏观因素影响，关税预期的反复，盘 面波动加剧。本期澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量环比增加 41.8 万吨，随着天气 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 转暖和矿山检修结束，二季度供给端扰动减少，发运量有望逐步回升。钢 | | | | | 企盈利状况尚可，日均铁水产量继续环比小幅回升，已超去年同期水平。 | | | | | 受反倾销和关税影响，板材需求降幅增大，出口面临下滑。铁矿供强需弱 | | | | | 预期，叠加远月有粗钢限产及铁矿投产预期压制，稳健的投资者仍可持有 | | | | | 铁矿 05-09 正套，铁矿 09 合约长期空配。 | | | | | 煤焦：焦炭首轮提涨落地，叠加宏观预期偏强，盘面下方受到支撑。国内 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 从美国进口的煤炭以焦煤为主，本次进一步提高关税，后期从美国进口的 | | | | | 焦煤将受到影响，同时从蒙古 ...

| 4月14日 | 4月11日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1422.42点，较上期下跌3.5% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 961.61点，较上期下跌2.10% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1129.45点，较上期上涨3.7% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 934.17点, 较上期上涨1.76% | | 4月11日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1222.05点, 较上期下跌17.95% | | | 4月11日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1394.68点，较上期上涨1.90点 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl欧线价格1356USD/TEU,较上期上涨1.5% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1107.28点，较上期上涨0.4% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线2202USD/FEU,较上期下跌4.8% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (欧洲航线) 1495.45点，较上期下跌0.8% | | | 中国出口集 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 4 月 15 日星期二 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-4-15） | | | | 铁矿：近期铁矿石市场行情主要受到宏观因素影响，关税预期的反复，盘 面波动加剧。本期澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量环比增加 41.8 万吨，随着天气 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 转暖和矿山检修结束，二季度供给端扰动减少，发运量有望逐步回升。钢 | | | | | 企盈利状况尚可，日均铁水产量继续环比小幅回升，已超去年同期水平， | | | | | 但有见顶迹象。受反倾销和关税影响，板材需求降幅增大，出口面临下滑。 | | | | | 铁矿供强需弱预期，叠加远月有粗钢限产及铁矿投产预期压制，稳健的投 | | | | | 资者仍可持有铁矿 05-09 正套，铁矿 09 合约长期空配。 | | | | | 煤焦：焦炭提涨，叠加宏观预期偏强，盘面下方受到支撑。国内从美国进 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 口的煤炭以焦煤为主，本次进一步提高关税，后期从美国进口的焦煤将受 | | | | | 到影响，同时 ...

| SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 4月7日 | | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1422.42点，较上期下 | 4月11日 | | 跌3.5% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）961.61点，较上期下跌2.10% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1129.45点，较上期上 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）934.17点，较上期上涨1.76% | | 涨3.7% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1222.05点，较上期下跌17.95% | | 4月11日 | 4月11日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1394.68点，较上期上涨1.90点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1107.28点，较上期上涨0.4% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1356USD/TEU,较上期上涨 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（欧洲航线）1507.27点，较上期下跌1.3% | | 1.5% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（美西航线）776.61点，较上 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Weak [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Weak [2] - Glass: Weak [2] - Soda ash: Weak [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Volatility [4] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Volatility [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Bullish [4] - Silver: Bullish [4] - Soybean oil: Rebound [3] - Palm oil: Rebound [6] - Rapeseed oil: Rebound [6] - Soybean meal: Bullish with volatility [6] - Rapeseed meal: Bullish with volatility [6] - Soybean No. 2: Bullish with volatility [6] - Soybean No. 1: Bullish with volatility [6] - Rubber: Volatility [6] - Pulp: Weak volatility [6] - Logs: Volatility [7] - PX: Wait - and - see [7] - PTA: Wait - and - see [7] - MEG: Wait - and - see [7] - PR: Bullish with volatility [7] - PF: Buy on dips for processing margin [7] - Plastic: Volatility, bullish bias [7] - PP: Volatility, bullish bias [8] - PVC: Volatility, bullish bias [8] Core Viewpoints - The tariff policy has caused significant fluctuations in commodities. The US suspension of tariffs on some Chinese goods has alleviated market sentiment, but different industries are affected differently [2][4]. - In the black industry, demand is generally weak, and supply and demand are seeking a new balance. In the financial market, the stock index is affected by macro - economic data and policies, and the bond market is affected by interest rates and capital supply. The precious metals market is driven by geopolitical risks, inflation data, and central bank actions. The agricultural products market is influenced by factors such as production, trade policies, and weather [2][4][6]. Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Although the export order index of China's manufacturing industry has rebounded, it is still in the contraction range, which restricts the export of steel products and drags down raw material demand. The global iron ore shipment is expected to increase, and the supply is loose. Steel mills' profits are okay, and the daily average pig iron output has rebounded but shows signs of peaking. Investors can consider the 05 - 09 positive spread operation and long - term short - allocation of the 09 contract [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The increase in tariffs on US coking coal imports will lead to a decrease in imports from the US and an increase from other countries. The high output of coking coal and the over - supply of coke remain unchanged, and the inventory pressure of coking enterprises has increased. The first round of price increases by coke enterprises has supported the market, and the overall market follows the trend of finished products [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: The tariff policy has caused fluctuations, and the current valuation is neutral. The cost of off - peak electricity supports the price. Both production and demand are increasing, but the demand recovery is slow. Steel mills are unlikely to cut production spontaneously on a large scale, and production is expected to increase in April. Terminal demand is in a weak recovery stage, and the May contract may hit a new low in the short term [2]. - **Glass**: Production has increased slightly, and the 2025 completion volume is expected to be lower than that in 2024. Although there are real - estate利好消息, the transmission of terminal demand takes time. Inventory has been decreasing, and the short - term tariff disturbance is negative. Attention should be paid to macro - policies, inventory changes, cold - repair progress, and the increase in real - estate completion area [2]. Financial Market - **Stock index**: The previous trading day's stock index showed different trends, with capital flowing into the precious metals and semiconductor sectors and out of the agricultural and food sectors. The social financing scale in the first quarter of 2025 increased year - on - year, and the money supply also changed. The four - department guidance on financial support for the sports industry was issued. With the stabilization of the external market and the easing of risk - aversion sentiment, long positions in the stock index can be held [4]. - **Treasury bond**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond increased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of funds. With the significant decline in interest rates and stable market funds, Treasury bonds are on the rise [4]. - **Precious metals**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Geopolitical risks, debt problems, and inflation data all affect the price of precious metals. The short - term trade - war escalation and the expected decline in US inflation support the upward trend of precious metals [4]. Agricultural Products Market - **Oils and fats**: Southeast Asian palm oil has entered the seasonal production - increasing cycle, and the export market is weak. South American soybeans have a record - high harvest, and the import of Brazilian soybeans to China is affected by trade frictions. Domestic soybean arrivals are increasing, and the inventory of oils and fats is declining. With the easing of tariff expectations, oils and fats are expected to stop falling and rebound [3][6]. - **Meals**: The USDA's supply - demand data is positive, and the postponement of some tariffs by the US and the EU has alleviated concerns about US crop exports. Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, and the heavy rain in Argentina has raised concerns about soybean production. The short - term trend of soybean meal is bullish with volatility, and attention should be paid to South American weather and soybean arrivals [6]. - **Soybean No. 2**: The USDA report is slightly positive, and the export of new Brazilian soybeans is accelerating. The expected soybean arrivals in the first quarter in China are lower than last year, but it may exceed 10 million tons in April. The short - term trend is bullish with volatility, and attention should be paid to South American weather and soybean arrivals [6]. Other Commodities - **Rubber**: The price of Shanghai rubber has risen slightly. The global natural rubber supply is entering the production - increasing period, and the arrival of imported rubber has increased inventory pressure. The downstream consumption is affected by tariff disputes. The supply in Yunnan is affected by weather and diseases, and the demand is weakening. The short - term market is expected to show weak volatility [6]. - **Pulp**: The spot market price has stabilized. The cost of pulp is strongly supported, but the demand from paper mills is weak, and the pulp price is expected to show weak volatility [6]. - **Logs**: The spot market price is relatively strong, but the sustainability is questionable. The arrival of logs is expected to decrease, the supply pressure will decline, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - **Chemical Products**: - **PX**: The demand is weakening, and the oil price is under pressure. The domestic PX load is decreasing, and the PXN spread is volatile. The PX price is expected to follow the oil - price fluctuations [7]. - **PTA**: The raw - material price fluctuates, the PXN spread is around $189/ton, and the spot TA processing margin is around 315 yuan/ton. The TA load has decreased, and the polyester load is stable. The short - term supply and demand are okay, mainly affected by raw - material price fluctuations [7]. - **MEG**: The domestic MEG load has decreased, and the port may accumulate inventory. The polyester load has rebounded. The raw - material end is differentiated, and the macro - sentiment fluctuates greatly, resulting in wide - range fluctuations in the disk [7]. - **PR**: The increase in the weekend oil price provides strong cost support, and the polyester bottle - chip market is mainly in a strong - side volatile state [7]. - **PF**: The increase in the oil price and the good short - term supply - demand pattern of PTA and EG support the cost. The short - term market of polyester staple fiber is expected to rebound, but the long - term impact of trade disputes on the downstream should be noted [7]. - **Plastic**: The price has decreased, the basis has strengthened, and the supply is at a high level. With the increase in downstream start - up and the decrease in inventory, the 05 contract is expected to run with a bullish bias [7]. - **PP**: The price has decreased, the basis has strengthened, and the cost has increased. The impact of tariffs is positive. The supply pressure is not large, and the downstream start - up is recovering. The price is expected to run with a bullish bias [8]. - **PVC**: The cost of calcium carbide is stable. The upstream and downstream start - up has increased slightly, and the export is average. The short - term inventory has decreased, but the supply - demand contradiction is still large. With the positive sentiment from the US cancellation of some tariffs, the PVC is expected to run with a bullish bias [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The suspension of tariffs on some countries by the US has boosted bullish sentiment, leading to a strong rebound in the market. However, recent operations are highly challenging. Risk - preferring investors can wait for rebound opportunities [1] - The core logic for this year's prediction lies in the direction of international tariff policies. In April, the US may change its tariff policies towards countries such as Canada, Mexico, and Europe again. The inclusion of retaliatory tariffs in the negotiation process adds a significant disturbing factor to the future of the shipping industry [1] - It is necessary to focus on the price war between MSK and MSC in the second quarter and the feedback of terminal demand under aggressive tariff policies [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Shipping Indexes - On April 7, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1422.42 points, a 3.5% decrease from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1129.45 points, a 3.7% increase from the previous period [1] - On March 28, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 983.01 points, a 12.89% increase from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 866.25 points, a 0.65% decrease from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1524.4 points, a 49.83% increase from the previous period [1] - On April 3, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1392.78 points, a 35.90 - point increase from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1336 USD/TEU, a 1.4% increase from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 2313 USD/FEU, a 6.2% increase from the previous period [1] - On April 3, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1102.71 points, a 0.8% decrease from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1507.27 points, a 1.3% decrease from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 776.61 points, a 3.6% decrease from the previous period [1] Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in March was 48.7 (expected 48.2); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50.4 (expected 51). The preliminary value of the Eurozone's composite PMI in March rose to 50.4, up from 50.2 in February, the highest since August. The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in March was - 2.9 (expected - 8.4, previous value - 12.7) [1] - China's manufacturing PMI in February was 50.2%, a 1.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, indicating an obvious recovery in manufacturing prosperity. China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in February was 50.8, the highest in the past three months, and the contraction rate of employment slowed down significantly [1] - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in March was 49.8, the lowest in three months; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 54.3, the highest in three months; the preliminary value of the US S&P Global composite PMI in March was 53.5, the highest in three months [1] Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Risk - preferring investors can try to go long lightly when the 2508 contract drops below 1900 points and the 2510 contract drops below 1200 points, and set stop - losses [1] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of tariff fermentation, attention can be paid to the reverse - arbitrage structure, but the window period is short and the volatility is large [1] - Long - term strategy: Currently, the far - month contracts are in deep water. It is recommended to take all profits. After the price war situation becomes clear in April, wait for the far - month contracts to adjust to an appropriate price before making new arrangements [1] Market Conditions - On April 10, the main contract 2506 closed at 1886.0, with a 14.47% increase, a trading volume of 82,600 lots, and an open interest of 33,200 lots, a decrease of 1498 lots from the previous day [1] - Due to the US announcement of tariff suspension for non - retaliatory countries, the market rebounded rapidly, and the container shipping index futures opened and closed higher. In the future, attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [1]