股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 截至月份: | 2025年8月31日 | 狀態: 新提交 | | --- | --- | --- | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | 公司名稱: | 中國海外發展有限公司 | | | 呈交日期: | 2025年9月1日 | | | I. 法定/註冊股本變動 不適用 | | | FF301 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 FF301 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00688 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 10,944,883,535 | | 0 | | 10,944,883,535 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 ...

Market Overview - In August, the Guangzhou real estate market remained subdued due to the traditional off-season and weather factors, with developers slowing down their sales pace and focusing on natural sales of existing projects [1] - As of August 24, the new residential sales area in Guangzhou for August was 381,000 square meters, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous month; however, the total sales area from January to August reached 4.315 million square meters, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [1] Sales Performance of Real Estate Companies - The top 20 real estate companies in Guangzhou for the period from January to August 2025 achieved a total sales amount of 120.11 billion yuan, with the threshold for entering the top 20 being 1.51 billion yuan [5] - Poly Developments topped both the sales amount and equity amount rankings, with flow sales amounting to 26.33 billion yuan and equity sales at 21.80 billion yuan [8] - The second place was held by Yuexiu Property, with flow sales of 20.82 billion yuan and equity sales of 15.81 billion yuan [8] Sales Area of Real Estate Companies - The top 20 real estate companies in Guangzhou for sales area from January to August 2025 had a total sales area of 3.364 million square meters, with a threshold of 64,000 square meters to enter the top 20 [11] - Poly Developments led the sales area rankings with 551,000 square meters for flow area and 457,000 square meters for equity area [12] - Yuexiu Property followed in second place with 498,000 square meters for flow area and 378,000 square meters for equity area [12] Project Sales Performance - The top-selling project in Guangzhou from January to August 2025 was Poly Tianyi in Haizhu District, with a sales amount of 4.45 billion yuan [15] - The second-ranked project was Poly Dazhan in Tianhe District, with a sales amount of 3.89 billion yuan [15] - The top project by sales area was Asian Games City in Panyu District, with a sales area of 60,000 square meters [15]

Group 1: Sales Performance of Real Estate Companies - The top 10 real estate companies in China achieved a total sales amount of 705.3 billion yuan from January to August 2025, representing an 8% year-on-year increase [8] - The sales amounts for the top 100 real estate companies reached 28.2 billion yuan, with a significant decline in the threshold values for the top 30 and 50 companies, which decreased by 10% and 18% respectively [8] Group 2: Policy Changes and Market Impact - Beijing and Shanghai have optimized their housing purchase restrictions in non-core areas, but these changes have not significantly impacted the real estate market [10][11] - The adjustments in purchase policies allowed for increased buying capacity for eligible families in non-core areas, yet the immediate sales results did not show a notable increase [14][15] Group 3: Land Supply and Market Dynamics - The focus of real estate policy has shifted from "incremental expansion" to "stock quality improvement," with a trend towards re-supplying previously unsold or stored land through regulatory adjustments [16] - In August, significant land transactions occurred in Shenzhen and Ningbo, with a notable land deal in Shenzhen reaching a total price of 8.64 billion yuan, setting a record for the year [17][18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a general increase in Hong Kong real estate stocks, driven by the relaxation of housing purchase restrictions in Beijing and Shanghai, which are the strictest cities in terms of these policies [1][1][1] - Major real estate companies such as China Jinmao, New World Development, and Sunac China saw significant stock price increases, with China Jinmao rising over 4% [1][1][1] - Analysts suggest that if the real estate market continues to show weakness, cities like Beijing and Shanghai are likely to further ease purchase restrictions, indicating a potential shift in national housing policy [1][1][1] Group 2 - The China Index Academy anticipates that September will be a period of intensive real estate policy announcements, with new supportive measures expected to accelerate under the goal of stabilizing the market [1][1][1] - As the market anticipates a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, there is an expectation for increased domestic monetary policy flexibility, which could further benefit the real estate sector [1][1][1] - The real estate market is entering the "Golden September and Silver October" sales season, with expectations that property companies will accelerate their sales efforts in core cities, leading to a potential short-term increase in market activity [1][1][1]

Core Insights - In August 2025, over 30% of the top 100 real estate companies achieved a month-on-month sales increase despite an overall decline in the housing market [1][5] - The sales turnover of the top 100 real estate companies in August saw a year-on-year decline of 17.6%, but this was a narrowing of 6.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [2][5] - The upcoming "Golden September" is expected to see a low rebound in new home transactions, with ongoing differentiation between cities and projects [1][16] Sales Performance - The sales turnover for the top 100 real estate companies in August 2025 was 207.04 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 1.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.6% [2][5] - Cumulatively, from January to August 2025, the sales turnover reached 2,070.88 billion yuan, down 13.1% year-on-year, with a slight increase in the number of companies exceeding 100 billion yuan in sales [5][11] Market Trends - The sales threshold for the top 100 real estate companies has decreased significantly, with the top 10 companies' sales threshold dropping by 4.3% year-on-year to 56.06 billion yuan, the lowest in recent years [8][11] - The market is experiencing a significant differentiation, with first-tier cities seeing a more pronounced decline in sales compared to second and third-tier cities [15][16] Future Outlook - The "Golden September" is anticipated to bring a low rebound in new home sales, driven by increased supply and favorable policies [14][16] - Core cities like Beijing and Shanghai have implemented policies to relax purchase restrictions, which may gradually restore market confidence [15][17]

Summary of Real Estate Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The real estate market remains at a low level, with a year-on-year decline exceeding 30% [1][3] - Significant differentiation among companies, with only one-third of real estate firms achieving month-on-month growth [2][5] - The top ten firms, including China Overseas, Greentown, China Merchants, and Huafa, showed notable growth rates of 20% to 30% [2][1] Key Market Trends - Supply in first-tier cities has significantly decreased, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen experiencing substantial declines [1][3] - Beijing's new supply was only 130,000 square meters, down over 30% month-on-month and nearly 70% year-on-year [3] - Shanghai's new supply was 310,000 square meters, with overall land market activity remaining sluggish [3] - Guangzhou's new home market remained relatively stable, benefiting from new regulations that accounted for 62% of new supply [12][1] - Shenzhen's transaction volume dropped significantly, with a month-on-month decline of 32% and a year-on-year decline of 50% [11][1] Sales Performance - In August, real estate sales continued to decline, with a month-on-month drop of 1.9% and a year-on-year drop of 17.6% [2] - Cumulatively, from January to August, the sales of the top 100 real estate firms fell by 13.1% [2] - The transaction volume in 30 key cities decreased by 12% month-on-month and 17% year-on-year in August [5][1] Policy Impact - The cancellation of purchase restrictions in Beijing on August 8 had limited effects, with transaction volumes remaining stable despite a 16% increase in visitor numbers [9][1] - New policies in Shanghai introduced on August 25 did not significantly stimulate the market, with only slight improvements in certain segments [10][1] - The overall market is still waiting for a significant policy breakthrough as current data shows no signs of recovery [21][1] Future Expectations - There is an expectation of a 30% to 50% increase in new supply in September, driven by development cycles [19][1] - The stability of core cities and new product regulations may provide some assurance for the market, but overall caution is advised [6][1] Inventory and Market Dynamics - The inventory situation varies, with some cities like Changsha and Wuhan showing high turnover rates due to unique project designs [25][1] - The overall inventory in Wuhan is approximately 15 million square meters with a 21-month turnover cycle, while Changsha has about 5 million square meters with an 18-month cycle [30][1] Conclusion - The real estate market is characterized by significant challenges, including declining sales, reduced supply, and limited policy effectiveness. However, certain firms and cities are showing resilience, indicating potential areas for investment and recovery in the future.

Core Viewpoint - The sales performance of the top 100 real estate companies in China for the first eight months of 2025 shows a significant decline, with total sales amounting to 23,270.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.3% [3][5]. Group 1: Sales Performance - The total sales of the top 100 real estate companies from January to August 2025 reached 23,270.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 13.3% [3]. - The equity sales amount for the top 100 companies was 16,275.2 billion yuan, with an equity sales area of 83.828 million square meters [3]. - The top five companies by sales in the first eight months were Poly Development (181.2 billion yuan), Greentown China (156.3 billion yuan), China Overseas Property (150.3 billion yuan), China Resources Land (142.5 billion yuan), and China Merchants Shekou (124.05 billion yuan) [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - August is typically a slow sales month for the real estate market, with a reported 30% decrease in supply and a 12% month-on-month decline in transaction volume across 30 monitored cities [4][5]. - In August, the top 100 real estate companies achieved sales of 207.04 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 1.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.6% [5]. - Despite the overall decline, 33% of the top 100 companies reported month-on-month sales growth in August, with 21 companies experiencing growth exceeding 30% [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The industry anticipates a potential recovery in September, driven by policy adjustments such as "recognizing houses but not loans" and lowering down payment ratios in major cities [6]. - The traditional peak sales season in September is expected to boost new home transaction volumes, with a gradual recovery in market confidence [6].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is undergoing significant changes, with predictions indicating a prolonged adjustment period for housing prices, which have already seen substantial declines in some areas [8][11]. Group 1: Expert Predictions - Vanke founder Wang Shi emphasizes that the adjustment in the real estate market will take several years, and current price declines are not indicative of a quick recovery [8]. - He suggests that ordinary individuals should refrain from rushing to buy properties and should instead adopt a wait-and-see approach [8]. - Wang Shi predicts a severe polarization among real estate companies, where those with high debt and poor product quality may face bankruptcy or mergers, while financially stable companies focusing on quality will thrive [11]. Group 2: Market Trends - The explosive demand for housing has largely been exhausted, with urbanization rates stabilizing at over 65% as of 2023, indicating a shift in market dynamics [16]. - Housing prices in major cities have escalated significantly over the past two decades, making them less accessible even after recent declines [16]. - The demographic shift, including a decrease in newborns and an aging population, is expected to further alter housing demand [16]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Wang Shi advises monitoring price differentiation trends, noting that major cities and new first-tier cities like Wuhan and Chengdu will likely maintain stronger price support compared to third- and fourth-tier cities facing population outflows [18]. - There may be opportunities in the market for improved housing, as older properties become less desirable due to maintenance issues, leading to a preference for low-density, well-managed communities [18]. - The overall sentiment aligns with previous views that purchasing in core urban areas is advisable for self-use, while speculative investments should be approached with caution [20].

Core Insights - The sales performance of the top 100 real estate companies in China for the first eight months of 2025 shows a total sales amount of 23,270.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.3%, consistent with the previous seven months [1] - Recent policy measures such as "recognizing houses but not loans" and lowering down payment ratios in major cities are expected to boost market recovery as the "golden September" approaches [1] - The top five real estate companies by sales include Poly Developments with 1,812 billion yuan, Greentown China with 1,563 billion yuan, and China Overseas Land & Investment with 1,503 billion yuan, all exceeding 1,000 billion yuan in sales [1] Sales Performance - Among the top 100 companies, five achieved sales exceeding 1,000 billion yuan, with an average sales amount of 1,508.7 billion yuan; six companies had sales between 500 billion and 1,000 billion yuan, averaging 750.3 billion yuan; and 53 companies surpassed 100 billion yuan in sales [2] - Poly Developments led in sales area with 8.934 million square meters, followed by Greentown China and Vanke with 7.330 million and 6.992 million square meters respectively [2] - The top 10 companies hold a significant market share, indicating a high concentration in the industry [2] Land Market Activity - The total land acquisition amount for the top 100 companies reached 605.6 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 28.0%, although the growth rate has slowed compared to the previous seven months [2] - Companies are focusing on key regional markets, with notable land acquisition activities by China Merchants Shekou in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing, and Chengdu [2] Market Outlook - The sales trend in August indicates a stabilization, with leading companies actively engaging in land acquisition [3] - The strategy of focusing on core cities and high-quality properties is expected to support future sales for real estate companies [3]

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Property Market in Mainland China and Hong Kong SAR - **Key Insights**: The property market is experiencing mixed signals with leading indicators in Mainland China showing declines while Hong Kong sees strong tourist arrivals. Mainland China Property Market - **Leading Indicators**: - Centaline tier-1 cities' secondary asking price index decreased from 19.4 to 18.5, marking the lowest since May 2024 [4] - Centaline manager confidence index fell from 45 to 44, reaching a new low since October 2024 [4] - **Sales Performance**: - 60-city primary sales increased by 1% year-over-year, recovering from a previous decline of 8% [4] - Sales registrations in Beijing improved by 17% year-over-year following policy easing on August 7, but asking prices remained stable [4] - 12-city secondary sales year-over-year growth improved from 4% to 6% [4] - **Market Dynamics**: - The sector's share price rose by 3% last week, with Vanke outperforming at +9% [4] - Notable underperformers included Shimao (-14%) and A-Living (-7%) [4] - **Investment Recommendations**: - Top picks include CR Land, CR Mixc, and Jinmao, with potential upside in laggards like COLI, COPH, and Longfor [4] Hong Kong Property Market - **Tourism Impact**: - Tourist arrivals increased by 1% week-over-week to 1.24 million, the highest year-to-date, with a year-over-year growth of 19% [4] - **Residential Sales**: - Residential sell-through rates have slowed, with Blue Coast II achieving a 56% sell-through rate, lower than expected [4] - Home price index fell by 0.5% week-over-week [4] - **Market Indicators**: - Centa Valuation Index rose to 65.2, indicating banks are revising up valuations, which supports price stabilization [4] - Secondary transactions in top 35 estates increased by 52% week-over-week to 82 units [4] - **Investment Recommendations**: - Among landlords, top picks include Swire Prop, Hang Lung, Wharf REIC, and Link REIT; among developers, Henderson and Sino are favored [4] Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: - The overall sentiment in the property market remains cautious, with leading indicators suggesting potential challenges ahead [4] - **Credit Views**: - Vanke reported a quarterly net loss of RMB 6 billion, with net gearing rising to 90% in Q2 2025, but is not expected to default due to support from Shenzhen Metro [9] - **Share Price Movements**: - The property sector in Mainland China and Hong Kong showed varied performance, with some companies experiencing significant fluctuations in share prices [4][55] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding the property markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong, highlighting both challenges and opportunities for investors.