更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha Asia Pacific Equity Research 04 June 2025 Property Data Monitor Mainland China: data is softening; HK: mixed sell- through rates Mainland China Hong Kong SAR See page 16 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this re ...

Major Events - JiuTai Rural Commercial Bank (06122) plans to sell 78.51% stake in HuanShan HuiMin Village Bank for 40.4 million yuan [1] - Vanke Enterprises (02202) intends to receive a loan of up to 3 billion yuan from its major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group [1] - China Gas Holdings (08246) signed a memorandum of understanding with the Lao Ministry of Industry and Commerce to explore cooperation in developing fuel and natural gas supply networks in Laos [1] - Miniso Group (09896) is conducting a preliminary assessment on the potential spin-off listing of its trendy toy business operated under the "TOP TOY" brand [1] - Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical (00874) subsidiary received approval from the National Medical Products Administration for the drug registration certificate of Tadalafil tablets (2.5mg, 5mg) [1] - Huaxing Capital Holdings (01911) portfolio company Circle successfully listed on the New York Stock Exchange, marking the first IPO milestone in the global stablecoin sector [1] - China National Nuclear Corporation (01763) plans to initiate its first irradiation station cooperation project in Peru [1] Operating Performance - Yuexiu Property (00123) reported a cumulative contract sales amount of approximately 50.7 billion yuan in the first five months, an increase of about 26.5% year-on-year [1] - China Overseas Land & Investment (00688) recorded a cumulative property sales amount of approximately 90.4 billion yuan in the first five months, a decrease of 11.1% year-on-year [1] - Shimao Group (00813) reported a cumulative contract sales total of 11.2 billion yuan in the first five months, a decrease of 18.71% year-on-year [1] - Zhongliang Holdings (02772) achieved a cumulative contract sales amount of approximately 5.37 billion yuan in the first five months, a decrease of 33.38% year-on-year [1] - GAC Group (02238) experienced a year-on-year decline in May's automobile production by 8.16% and a sales drop of 24.80% [1] - Poly Property Group (00119) achieved a contract sales amount of approximately 21.8 billion yuan in the first five months, an increase of 3.81% year-on-year [1] - New天绿色能源 (00956) completed a power generation volume of approximately 7.29 million megawatt-hours in the first five months, an increase of 10.86% year-on-year [1]

中国海外发展5月合约销售额238.5亿元，同比增长21.1％。 ...

本报记者 陈潇 此次成交的4宗地块中，最受瞩目的当属海淀区宝山村0016、0017两宗。其中，经过多轮现场竞价， 0016地块最终由中建壹品以27.78亿元成交，楼面价约5.51万元/平方米，溢价率1.76%；0017地块最终由 金隅集团以33.64亿元成交，楼面价约5.6万元/平方米，溢价率1.48%。 "从位置上看，成交的2宗海淀区地块交通便捷，距离地铁6号线廖公庄站步行距离约700米；临近西五环 入口约800米。教育配套方面，规划中明确将配建一所九年一贯制学校，目前拟引入首都师范大学附属 中学教育资源。"中指研究院土地市场研究负责人张凯向《证券日报》记者表示，宝山村地块核心价值 体现在其稀缺的五环内区位、明确的教育资源引入计划以及相对合理的价格梯度。 此外，石景山区西黄村地块则由中海企业发展集团有限公司（以下简称"中海地产"）以底价45.23亿元 摘得，成交楼面价约2.75万元/平方米；昌平区北四村地块由越秀地产股份有限公司等房企和贝好家组 成的联合体以底价23.95亿元摘得，成交楼面价约3万元/平方米。整体来看，本轮供地延续了北京今年 以来的"稳量提质"的出让节奏，拿地企业以央企、国企和品牌民企为主。 ...

Core Insights - The Beijing land market successfully sold multiple plots, generating a total revenue of 130.6 billion yuan [1] - Notable transactions include the Baoshan Village plots in Haidian, which were acquired by China State Construction and Jinyu for 27.78 billion yuan and 33.64 billion yuan respectively [1] - The Xihuang Village plot in Shijingshan was acquired by China Overseas Land for a base price of 45.23 billion yuan [1] - The Beihou Village plot in Changping was jointly acquired by a consortium including Yuexiu, Beijing Urban Construction, Future Science City, and Beike's Beihome for a base price of 23.95 billion yuan [1] Transaction Details - Haidian Baoshan Village plots had floor prices of 5.51 million yuan/sqm and 5.6 million yuan/sqm [1] - The floor price for the Shijingshan Xihuang Village plot was approximately 2.75 million yuan/sqm [1] - The Changping Beihou Village plot had a floor price of about 3 million yuan/sqm [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the real estate market is stabilizing after a period of decline, supported by recent monetary policy adjustments such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [2][3] - In the first five months of the year, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies exceeded 1.44 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8%, with 33 companies achieving sales over 10 billion yuan, unchanged from the previous year [2] - Poly Developments leads the sales with 116.1 billion yuan, becoming the first company to surpass 100 billion yuan in sales this year, followed by Greentown China and China Overseas Land & Investment with sales of over 96 billion yuan and 90.4 billion yuan respectively [2] Group 2 - The overall real estate market in May showed signs of stabilization, with new housing supply significantly decreasing, while transaction volumes remained stable compared to April, and year-on-year growth was maintained [2] - The analysis indicates that weak employment income expectations among residents are the primary constraint on housing demand, with a continued focus on policy support for the real estate sector [3] - In major cities, supply constraints are becoming more pronounced, particularly in hot markets like Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu, which may limit transaction volumes despite the introduction of desirable properties [3]

Core Viewpoint - The sales performance of the top 100 real estate companies in China has declined significantly in the first five months of the year, with a total sales amount of 1,443.64 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 10.8% [1][3]. Group 1: Sales Performance - The total sales of the top 100 real estate companies reached 1,443.64 billion yuan from January to May, showing a year-on-year decline of 10.8% [1][3]. - In May alone, the sales amount for the top 100 companies dropped by 17.3% year-on-year, which is an increase in the decline rate compared to April [3]. - Poly Developments leads the sales with 116.1 billion yuan, becoming the first company to exceed 100 billion yuan in sales this year [2][3]. Group 2: Company Rankings - The top three companies are Poly Developments, Greentown China, and China Overseas Property, with sales of 116.1 billion yuan, 96.44 billion yuan, and 90.4 billion yuan respectively [2][3]. - China Overseas Property has overtaken China Resources Land to claim the third position, narrowing the gap with Greentown China [3][5]. - Among the top 10 companies, four are state-owned enterprises, including Poly Developments, China Overseas Property, China Resources Land, and China Merchants Shekou [3][6]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competition between China Resources Land and China Overseas Property is intensifying, with China Overseas Property regaining the lead in May [5]. - China Merchants Shekou's sales are significantly lower than the top four, indicating a challenging path to catch up [6]. - Only one private company, Binjiang Group, has entered the top 10, ranking ninth with sales of 43.36 billion yuan [12]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The rankings of companies are subject to change, with some companies rising while others are falling, indicating a dynamic market environment [13]. - Binjiang Group has shown aggressive expansion intentions, with a land acquisition amount of 27 billion yuan, ranking fourth in this regard [12]. - The overall market is experiencing a transformation, with new players emerging and established companies facing challenges [13].

Core Viewpoint - The sales performance of major real estate companies in China for the first five months of 2025 shows a significant decline compared to the same period in 2024, indicating a challenging market environment for the industry [1][4]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Only Poly Developments achieved over 100 billion yuan in sales, totaling 116.1 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 15.2 billion yuan year-on-year [1]. - China Overseas ranked second with sales of 90.4 billion yuan, down 11.3 billion yuan from the previous year [1]. - China Resources Land, despite moving up one rank, reported sales of 86.9 billion yuan, a decline of 5.8 billion yuan year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - The threshold for entering the top 10 sales list increased to 43.3 billion yuan, with Huafa Group becoming the new entry, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 7.4 billion yuan [3]. - Companies like Yuexiu and Jianfa saw sales growth, while major players like China Vanke experienced a significant drop of over 44 billion yuan [3][4]. - The overall sales of the top 20 companies showed a mixed trend, with some companies like China State Construction and Greenland reporting growth, while others like Jinmao and Longfor faced declines [6][8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The real estate market is characterized by insufficient incremental demand, leading to intense competition among the top 100 companies [9]. - Recent price reductions by leading companies, such as China Overseas, indicate a response to market pressures despite the overarching goal of stabilizing the market [10]. - Policy changes, including interest rate cuts and reduced down payment ratios, aim to support the market, but the overall recovery remains sluggish [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [3][5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the current policy environment is being driven by fundamental pressures, suggesting that the policy response may exceed the measures taken in 2008 and 2014 [3]. - Real estate is identified as an early-cycle indicator, serving as a barometer for economic trends, making it a strategic investment focus [3]. - The competitive landscape within the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private firms performing well in land acquisition and sales [3]. - The report continues to support investment in first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, which have shown better performance during sales rebounds [3]. - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are highlighted as critical areas to monitor, with first- and second-tier cities expected to benefit more [3]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The report notes that the Shenwan Real Estate Index increased by 0.9%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.03 percentage points, ranking 11th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [10]. - New housing transactions in 30 cities totaled 2.41 million square meters, a 11.2% increase month-on-month but a 11.9% decrease year-on-year [21]. - Second-hand housing transactions in 14 sample cities amounted to 2.18 million square meters, a 6.8% decrease month-on-month but an 8.9% increase year-on-year [30]. Key City New and Second-Hand Housing Transaction Tracking - In first-tier cities, new housing transaction area was 685,000 square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 23.7% and a year-on-year increase of 16.9% [21]. - In second-tier cities, new housing transaction area was 1.08 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 13.7% but a year-on-year decrease of 23.9% [21]. - In third-tier cities, new housing transaction area was 641,000 square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 2.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.9% [21]. Key Company Credit Bond Situation - During the week of May 26 to June 1, five credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 5.31 billion yuan, a 15.11 billion yuan increase from the previous week [42]. - The net financing amount was -3.84 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.41 billion yuan increase in net financing compared to the previous week [42]. - The majority of the bonds issued were rated AAA (83.1%) and primarily consisted of general medium-term notes (81.0%) [42].

今年以来，房地产市场整体延续止跌回稳态势。 5月30日—31日，中指研究院、克而瑞、亿翰智库等机构陆续发布2025年前5月百强房企销售业绩及拿地金额榜单。中指研究院数据显示，前5月，百强房企 销售总额14436.4亿元，同比下降10.8%。另据克而瑞数据，百强房企5月销售操盘金额2945.8亿元，环比增长3.5%。 头部企业表现依然稳健。亿翰智库统计显示，前5月，TOP10房企和TOP30房企的销售门槛值分别同比增长8%和2%。保利发展前5月以1161亿元领跑百强房 企，并成为今年首个销售额破千亿元的房企。 在土地端，百强房企的拿地金额增长明显。据中指研究院数据，前5月，百强企业拿地总额4051.9亿元，同比增长28.8%，增幅较4月扩大2.2个百分点。央国 企仍是拿地主力，部分民营房企也积极拿地，如滨江集团、邦泰集团、兴耀房产等均进入拿地金额前二十。 58安居客研究院院长张波6月1日下午通过微信向《每日经济新闻》记者分析指出，从百强房企销售来看，市场总体表现呈现"弱复苏基调下的区域性向好"趋 势，虽未整体回暖，但部分企业表现向好，市场的总体表现好于预期。 今年首个"千亿房企"诞生 房企整体销售业绩仍然处于下 ...