Core Insights - On October 21, Shandong Molong made its first appearance on the Hong Kong Stock Connect active trading list in the past month, with a trading volume of 1.147 billion HKD and a net buying amount of 48 million HKD, closing up 8.39% [1] Trading Activity Summary - The total trading volume of active stocks on the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached 44.268 billion HKD, accounting for 35.00% of the day's total trading amount, with a net buying amount of 868 million HKD [1] - Alibaba-W led the trading volume with 10.33 billion HKD, followed by SMIC and Pop Mart with trading amounts of 7.805 billion HKD and 5.897 billion HKD, respectively [1] Stock Performance Overview - The most frequently listed stocks in the past month include Alibaba-W and Huahong Semiconductor, each appearing 16 times, indicating strong interest from Hong Kong Stock Connect investors [1] - Shandong Molong's trading activity on October 21 marked its first listing in the past month, with a notable increase in its stock price [1]

Market Overview - On October 21, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.65%, with total southbound trading amounting to HKD 126.49 billion, including buy transactions of HKD 63.83 billion and sell transactions of HKD 62.66 billion, resulting in a net buying amount of HKD 1.17 billion [1] Southbound Trading Details - The southbound trading through Stock Connect (Shenzhen) had a cumulative trading amount of HKD 45.84 billion, with buy transactions of HKD 22.25 billion and sell transactions of HKD 23.60 billion, leading to a net selling amount of HKD 1.35 billion [1] - Conversely, the Stock Connect (Shanghai) recorded a cumulative trading amount of HKD 80.65 billion, with buy transactions of HKD 41.59 billion and sell transactions of HKD 39.06 billion, resulting in a net buying amount of HKD 2.52 billion [1] Active Stocks - Among the actively traded stocks, Alibaba-W had the highest trading amount at HKD 103.30 billion, followed by SMIC with HKD 78.05 billion and Pop Mart with HKD 58.97 billion [1] - In terms of net buying, Pop Mart led with a net buying amount of HKD 11.21 billion despite a closing price drop of 8.08%, followed by Xiaomi Group-W with HKD 4.81 billion and Hua Hong Semiconductor with HKD 4.41 billion [1] - The stock with the highest net selling was the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong, with a net selling amount of HKD 11.02 billion, while Alibaba-W and Innovent Biologics experienced net selling amounts of HKD 4.30 billion and HKD 0.78 billion, respectively [1] Detailed Stock Performance - The following table summarizes the trading performance of selected stocks on October 21: - Pop Mart: Total trading amount of HKD 589.69 million, net buying of HKD 112.07 million, with a price drop of 8.08% [3] - Xiaomi Group-W: Total trading amount of HKD 357.59 million, net buying of HKD 48.11 million, with a price drop of 1.44% [3] - Hua Hong Semiconductor: Total trading amount of HKD 366.72 million, net buying of HKD 44.13 million, with a price drop of 0.26% [3] - Tencent Holdings: Total trading amount of HKD 461.03 million, net selling of HKD 3.19 million, with a price increase of 0.48% [3] - Alibaba-W: Total trading amount of HKD 1,033.04 million, net selling of HKD 42.98 million, with a price increase of 1.98% [3] - Tracker Fund of Hong Kong: Total trading amount of HKD 111.86 million, net selling of HKD 110.23 million, with a price increase of 0.68% [3]

Core Points - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.65% to close at 26,027.55 points on October 21, with a net inflow of HKD 1.171 billion from southbound funds through the Stock Connect [1] - The total trading volume for the Stock Connect on the same day was HKD 126.489 billion, with a net buy of HKD 1.171 billion [1] - In the Shanghai Stock Connect, the trading volume was HKD 80.647 billion with a net buy of HKD 2.524 billion, while the Shenzhen Stock Connect had a trading volume of HKD 45.843 billion with a net sell of HKD 1.353 billion [1] Trading Activity - The most actively traded stock in the Shanghai Stock Connect was Alibaba-W, with a trading volume of HKD 6.587 billion, followed by SMIC and Pop Mart, with trading volumes of HKD 4.678 billion and HKD 4.097 billion, respectively [1] - In terms of net buying, Pop Mart led with a net inflow of HKD 0.683 billion, despite its stock price dropping by 8.08% [1] - Alibaba-W had the highest net sell amount of HKD 0.133 billion, while its stock price increased by 1.98% [1] Shenzhen Stock Connect Activity - In the Shenzhen Stock Connect, Alibaba-W also topped the trading volume with HKD 3.743 billion, followed by SMIC and Pop Mart with HKD 3.127 billion and HKD 1.800 billion, respectively [2] - Pop Mart again had the highest net buy amount of HKD 0.438 billion, despite a closing price drop of 8.08% [2] - The stock with the largest net sell was the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong, with a net sell of HKD 1.102 billion, while its stock price rose by 0.68% [2]

Core Insights - The recent actions of Zhipu AI, including layoffs and internal turmoil, highlight the challenges faced by this once-prominent AI company as it approaches its IPO [1] - The competitive landscape for AI applications in China has shifted dramatically, with major companies dominating the market, leaving little room for startups [2][7] - The trend of major firms capturing market share is evident, as they leverage their existing ecosystems to enhance AI applications, effectively sidelining smaller competitors [7][12] Group 1: Company Developments - Zhipu AI's research and development center has been reportedly dissolved, retaining only about half of its staff, with many employees receiving abrupt notifications regarding their termination and loss of benefits [1] - Since 2025, Zhipu AI has experienced a series of executive departures, indicating instability within its core team [1] - The company, once part of the "AI Six Dragons," has seen a rapid decline in its fortunes within a year, as larger firms gain traction in the AI space [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, major companies accounted for 70% of the top 20 AI applications in China, with only 7 slots occupied by startups [2][3] - The dominance of large firms in the AI application market contrasts sharply with the global landscape, where only 15% of top products are from major companies [3][4] - The shift towards major firms is further evidenced by the significant user engagement metrics, with applications like ChatGPT and Quark leading the charts [4][5] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competition among AI applications in China resembles the early days of the mobile internet, where major players are increasingly solidifying their market positions [8][9] - The lack of innovation in the domestic AI application market raises concerns about the potential for a repeat of past market consolidations, where only a few dominant players emerge [9][11] - The trend of startups moving their focus overseas indicates a potential loss of domestic innovation, as they seek better opportunities in international markets [12][13] Group 4: Future Implications - The ongoing dominance of large firms in the AI sector may stifle the emergence of new, disruptive applications, leading to a stagnation in innovation [11][16] - As more AI startups shift their focus to international markets, the risk of losing local talent and innovation capabilities increases [12][13] - The current landscape suggests that the window for AI product innovation in China may be closing, with startups facing significant challenges in competing against established giants [7][16]

Group 1 - On October 21, 2025, Alibaba-W (09988), SMIC (00981), and Pop Mart (09992) ranked as the top three companies by trading volume in the Southbound Stock Connect, with transaction amounts of 6.587 billion, 4.678 billion, and 4.097 billion respectively [1] - In the Southbound Stock Connect for the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Alibaba-W (09988), SMIC (00981), and Pop Mart (09992) also held the top three positions, with transaction amounts of 3.743 billion, 3.127 billion, and 1.800 billion respectively [1] Group 2 - In the Southbound Stock Connect, the top active trading companies included Alibaba-W (09988) with a transaction amount of 6.587 billion and a net buy of -0.133 billion, SMIC (00981) with 4.678 billion and a net buy of -51.9952 million, and Pop Mart (09992) with 4.097 billion and a net buy of +683 million [2] - For the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the top active trading companies were Alibaba-W (09988) with a transaction amount of 3.743 billion and a net buy of -0.296 billion, SMIC (00981) with 3.127 billion and a net buy of +180 million, and Pop Mart (09992) with 1.800 billion and a net buy of +438 million [2]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market continues its upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.65%, the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.26%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up by 0.76%, indicating a broad market rally with 1,315 stocks rising and 883 falling [1] - Southbound funds recorded a net purchase of HKD 1.171 billion on a single day, signaling renewed buying interest after a brief outflow [4] Stock Performance - The most favored stocks included Pop Mart, Xiaomi Group-W, and Hua Hong Semiconductor, which saw net purchases of HKD 1.121 billion, HKD 0.481 billion, and HKD 0.441 billion, respectively [4] - Conversely, the iShares Asia 50 ETF, Alibaba-W, and Innovent Biologics experienced varying degrees of net selling, with net sales of HKD 1.102 billion, HKD 4.3 billion, and HKD 0.78 billion, respectively [5] Future Outlook - According to Guotai Junan, historical data suggests that minor pullbacks in the Hong Kong market often occur after profit-taking following market rallies, with the Hang Seng Index typically declining by an average of 7% over 11 trading days [6] - The report emphasizes that short-term fluctuations do not alter the medium-term positive trend, with the technology sector remaining the main investment focus amid an upward industrial cycle and increased capital inflow [6] - Guoyuan International highlights that the primary external uncertainty remains the US-China rivalry, which could impact investor sentiment and lead to short-term market volatility, but there is a significant likelihood that the Hang Seng Index will return to an upward trajectory [6]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market saw a net inflow of 11.71 billion HKD from northbound trading on October 21, with a net buy of 25.24 billion HKD from the Shanghai Stock Connect and a net sell of 13.53 billion HKD from the Shenzhen Stock Connect [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The most bought stocks included Pop Mart (09992), Xiaomi Group-W (01810), and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) [1] - The most sold stocks included the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800), Alibaba Group-W (09988), and Innovent Biologics (01801) [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Details - Pop Mart (09992) received a net buy of 11.2 billion HKD, with projected revenue growth of 245%-250% year-on-year for Q3 2025 [4] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) had a net buy of 4.81 billion HKD, with the company repurchasing 10.7 million shares at prices between 45.9 and 46.76 HKD [5] - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) saw a net buy of 4.29 billion HKD, supported by positive sentiment around the semiconductor sector driven by AI [5] - China Mobile (00941) received a net buy of 1.77 billion HKD, reporting Q3 service revenue of 216.2 billion HKD, a 0.8% year-on-year increase [5] - China Life (02628) had a net buy of 517.7 million HKD, with expected net profit growth of 50% to 70% year-on-year for the first three quarters [6] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) experienced a net sell of 11.02 billion HKD, attributed to increased market volatility and high valuations of global risk assets [6] - Tencent (00700), Innovent Biologics (01801), and Alibaba Group-W (09988) faced net sells of 318.7 million, 776.4 million, and 4.29 billion HKD respectively [7]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts Tencent Holdings (00700) to achieve a 13% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3, with an 18% increase in non-IFRS operating profit, indicating potential growth in gaming and advertising sectors, and a likely expansion in profit margins [1] Financial Performance - Tencent's Q3 revenue is expected to grow by 13% year-on-year [1] - Non-IFRS operating profit is projected to rise by 18% [1] Business Outlook - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on Tencent, setting a target price of HKD 700, continuing to view it as a preferred stock [1] - The firm has raised its non-IFRS operating profit forecasts for Tencent for the years 2025 to 2027 by 1% to 2% [1] - Anticipated capital expenditure for Tencent from 2025 to 2027 is estimated at RMB 320 billion [1] Growth Drivers - The company is expected to demonstrate robust growth across all business segments, supported by positive operating leverage, limited competition, and strong capital management and execution capabilities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts Tencent Holdings (00700) to achieve a 13% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3, with an 18% increase in non-IFRS operating profit, highlighting potential growth in gaming and advertising sectors, and suggesting that profit margins may continue to expand [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The firm maintains an "Overweight" rating on Tencent, setting a target price of HKD 700, continuing to position it as a preferred stock [1] - Morgan Stanley has raised its non-IFRS operating profit forecasts for Tencent for the years 2025 to 2027 by 1% to 2% [1] - The expected capital expenditure for Tencent from 2025 to 2027 is projected to be RMB 320 billion [1] Group 2: Business Outlook - The firm is optimistic about Tencent's robust growth across all business segments, citing positive operating leverage, limited competition, and strong capital management and execution capabilities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities reports that Tencent possesses the best investment portfolio in China's internet industry, highlighting its AI-driven growth potential, stable competitive landscape, and attractive shareholder returns under appealing valuations [1] Group 1: Investment Potential - Tencent is viewed as a major beneficiary of AI applications and monetization in China, with expectations for accelerated growth in advertising and cloud revenue, validating the benefits of AI technology on its core business [1] - The integration of AI functionalities into WeChat, such as AI agents directly recommending services and products, is anticipated to drive a re-rating of the stock price in the medium term [1] Group 2: Ratings and Price Target - The firm maintains a "Buy" rating on Tencent, raising the target price from HKD 690 to HKD 780 [1]