Core Insights - The commercial real estate market is undergoing a deep adjustment period characterized by recovery and transformation, with ongoing downward pressure despite a recovering consumer market [1] - Companies are actively expanding financing channels, accelerating the implementation of public REITs for consumer infrastructure, and deepening digital transformation to enhance operational quality and consumer experience [1] - The market is expected to remain in a dynamic process influenced by multiple variables, requiring companies to be agile and resilient in their operations to navigate the new cycle [1] Industry Overview - The commercial real estate sector is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, particularly in the commercial office segment, which has not yet been fundamentally resolved [1] - Investment confidence and development motivation among enterprises remain insufficient, indicating a cautious outlook for future investments [1] Company Strategies - Companies are responding to market challenges by innovating business models and enhancing operational quality to meet increasingly diverse consumer demands [1] - The "Performance Index • 2025 Commercial Real Estate Performance" report aims to provide market participants with practical references to explore certain development paths amid uncertainties [1] Performance Rankings - The report includes a ranking of companies based on various performance metrics, such as brand value, management capability, and innovation ability, showcasing the competitive landscape within the industry [2][5][7][9][10][12][19][30]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in Chinese property stocks is primarily driven by increasing policy expectations, with the potential for this outperformance to continue until the next government meeting in late November or December [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The fundamentals of the industry indicate a rising probability of new policy support [1] - The preferred stocks in the sector include China Resources Land, China Resources Mixc Lifestyle, and China Jinmao [1] - Longfor Group is considered to have the best risk-reward ratio amid the policy-driven rebound [1] Group 2: Hong Kong Real Estate Stocks - The upward trend in Hong Kong real estate stocks is attributed to increased confidence in the market recovery [1] - Despite a positive outlook on the market, valuations of residential stocks have fully reflected the expectations of a comprehensive recovery, with Sun Hung Kai Properties' adjusted stock price reaching historical highs while the secondary property price index remains 26% below its peak [1] - Currently, the risk-reward profile for rental property stocks is viewed as more favorable, with top picks being Swire Properties, Hang Lung Properties, Link REIT, and Wharf Real Estate Investment Company [1] - Among developers, the company favors Sino Land and Henderson Land [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the real estate industry [7] Core Insights - The real estate industry is experiencing a low-level adjustment with accelerated differentiation among companies, where the overall revenue of sample companies decreased by 12.5% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 161.6% [4][8] - The sales decline is narrowing, with top companies like Jianfa Real Estate, China Jinmao, and Yuexiu Property achieving growth against the trend [4][9] - The land market is showing a trend of quality improvement and reduced volume, with core city premium land transactions supporting a year-on-year increase in transaction value [4][9] Summary by Sections 1. Financial Performance: Weakness Continues, Differentiation Among Companies - In the first three quarters of 2025, the overall revenue of 23 sample companies decreased by 12.5% year-on-year, with state-owned enterprises showing a growth of 6.1% while private and mixed-ownership companies faced declines of 17.1% and 27.8% respectively [16] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for these companies fell by 161.6%, with state-owned enterprises experiencing a decline of 1595.6% [16][22] - The overall gross margin for the sample companies was 13.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the full year of 2024, while state-owned enterprises saw a recovery in gross margin [22][40] 2. Operational Performance: Sales Under Pressure, Land Market Quality Improvement - In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative sales amount of commercial housing nationwide decreased by 7.9% year-on-year, with a decline in sales area of 5.5% [9][43] - The top 100 real estate companies reported a cumulative sales amount of 24,948 billion, down 12.8% year-on-year, with the top 10 companies showing a decline of 11.7% [49][52] - The land market is characterized by a reduction in supply and an increase in transaction value, with the cumulative transaction amount reaching 13,304 billion, up 11.9% year-on-year [54][57] 3. Financing Environment: Marginal Improvement, State-Owned Enterprises at an Advantage - The bond issuance scale for real estate companies has stopped declining, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% in the first three quarters of 2025 [10] - The average bond issuance interest rate has decreased from 5.5% in 2021 to 2.8% in the first half of 2025, indicating a recovery in market confidence [10][57] - The liquidity pressure remains, with significant differences in the financial health of various companies [10][57] 4. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Leading Companies in Core Areas - The report recommends focusing on leading companies that continue to acquire land in core areas of first-tier and strong second-tier cities, such as Greentown China, Jianfa International Group, and China Overseas Development [11][57] - Attention should also be given to companies with potential turnaround opportunities and those with core competitive advantages in the real estate intermediary sector [11]

Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group is transitioning towards a second growth curve by enhancing its operational capabilities in commercial real estate, particularly in light of declining development business performance [2][4][6]. Group 1: Current Business Performance - Longfor Group reported operating revenue of approximately RMB 22.16 billion for the first ten months of 2025, accounting for 39.7% of its contract sales during the same period [2]. - The company's contract sales have significantly decreased from RMB 290.1 billion in 2021 to RMB 55.8 billion in the first ten months of 2025, with an expectation of falling below RMB 100 billion for the first time since 2017 [4]. - The share of recurring business revenue in total revenue has been increasing, reaching 22.6% in the first half of 2025, but the gross profit margin for recurring business was only 12.6%, indicating insufficient support for overall profitability [7][8]. Group 2: Comparison with Competitors - Longfor's recurring business gross profit margin is significantly lower than that of China Resources Land, which achieved a gross profit margin of 24% in its recurring business [7][8]. - The difference in profitability is attributed to the positioning of their commercial segments, with Longfor targeting middle-income families while China Resources focuses on high-end consumers [8]. Group 3: Strategic Moves and Challenges - The acquisition of the World Trade Center project in Beijing is seen as a strategic opportunity for Longfor to enhance its presence in the high-end commercial market and improve brand visibility [9][10][12]. - The project has the potential to diversify Longfor's commercial product offerings and align with government policies encouraging the integration of commercial and cultural tourism [14]. - However, challenges include the need for significant capital investment for upgrades, uncertainty in rental income due to high vacancy rates (40%-50%), and a lack of experience in renovating older commercial properties [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The signing of the agreement between Beijing Aozhongxingye and Longfor Commercial for the Beijing World Trade Center project marks a significant transition for the CBD landmark, indicating Longfor's completion of its tenth commercial project in Beijing [1][4]. Group 1: Project Background - The Beijing World Trade Center, which opened in 2007, was once a vibrant commercial hub featuring Asia's largest sky screen, attracting significant foot traffic and hosting high-profile brands like ZARA and the upscale restaurant chain, Golden Jaguar [2]. - In recent years, the project has faced severe competition from nearby commercial areas, such as Taikoo Li Sanlitun and THE BOX, which have drawn away customers and contributed to the decline of the World Trade Center [2][3]. - The pandemic exacerbated the situation, leading to financial difficulties for tenants, resulting in many opting to vacate the premises after unsuccessful negotiations for rent reductions [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The World Trade Center was previously put up for sale in 2015, with a reported valuation of approximately 4 billion yuan, but the sale fell through due to asset issues faced by the owner [3]. - According to a report by CBRE, over 1 million square meters of new commercial space is expected to be added in Beijing in 2024, intensifying competition in the core area and further squeezing the World Trade Center's market position [3]. Group 3: Longfor's Strategy - Following the acquisition, Longfor Commercial has established a network of commercial projects in Beijing, including nine "Tianjie" locations, enhancing its market presence across various districts [5]. - The successful transformation of the Beiyuan Tianjie project, which achieved a 99% leasing rate and generated over 33 million yuan in revenue within the first three days of opening, sets a positive precedent for the upcoming operations of the World Trade Center [5][6]. - Longfor's commercial operations reported a rental income of 7.01 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a 2.5% year-on-year increase, with a high occupancy rate of 97% across its 89 shopping centers [6].

Core Viewpoint - The partnership between Longfor Commercial and Beijing Aozhong Xingye aims to revitalize the Beijing World Trade Center (WTC) project, positioning it as a commercial aesthetic landmark in Beijing's CBD, marking Longfor's 10th project in the city [1][4]. Group 1: Historical Context and Challenges - The WTC was once a prominent commercial landmark in Beijing, known for its massive electronic canopy, which cost 250 million yuan and is the largest in Asia [2]. - The WTC gained fame during the 2008 Beijing Olympics but has since struggled with declining foot traffic and brand appeal due to the emergence of new commercial entities [2][3]. - The overall retail real estate market in Beijing is under pressure, with a reported 3.5% decline in effective rents and a 7.1% vacancy rate in the city center as of Q3 2025 [3]. Group 2: Current Developments - Longfor Commercial's entry into the WTC project is part of its strategy to expand its presence in Beijing, now operating 10 commercial projects in the city [5]. - The collaboration aims to leverage the WTC's historical significance while addressing its operational challenges, focusing on creating a new identity as a commercial aesthetic landmark [4][6]. - The success of this partnership will depend on Longfor's ability to innovate and attract foot traffic, as traditional shopping centers face the need for systemic innovation beyond mere tenant acquisition [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3][4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that real estate is a crucial asset allocation and investment direction for Chinese households, and stabilizing housing prices is significant for facilitating economic circulation. The policy environment is expected to strengthen further, promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector. There is an anticipated wave of development for high-quality residential properties due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure [4][48]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.1%, while the real estate sector (Shenwan) declined by 0.2% during the week [4][7]. - In the new housing market, 154 million square meters were sold across 42 key cities from November 1 to November 7, representing a 38.7% decrease from the previous week and a 46.7% year-on-year decline [4][13]. - The second-hand housing market saw 191 million square meters sold in 21 key cities during the same period, reflecting a 7.6% decrease week-on-week and a 26.7% year-on-year decline [4][28]. Data Tracking - For new housing, the cumulative sales in November (up to the week of November 7) were 154 million square meters, showing a 195.2% increase month-on-month but a 46.7% decrease year-on-year [4][17]. - In the second-hand housing market, cumulative sales for November reached 191 million square meters, indicating an 895.9% increase month-on-month but a 26.7% decrease year-on-year [4][31]. Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued a plan to promote the development of smart cities, aiming to establish over 50 fully digital transformation cities by the end of 2027 [4][45]. - Shenzhen is supporting the conversion of idle non-residential properties into affordable rental housing, while Hunan's Pingjiang County is implementing a comprehensive approach to selling existing homes [4][45]. Company Announcements - In October, major real estate companies reported significant declines in sales, with China Overseas Development at 186.6 billion (down 55.1% year-on-year) and Poly Development at 211.2 billion (down 50.1% year-on-year) [4][48].

Group 1 - Hong Kong real estate stocks experienced a general rise, with Longfor Group up 3.33%, China Resources Land up 3%, and Agile Group up 3.4% [1] - Other notable increases include R&F Properties, Jin Hui Holdings, Ronshine China, and Jianfa International Group, each rising approximately 2%, while Midea Real Estate, Longguang Group, New City Development, and China Overseas Macro Holdings rose over 1% [1] Group 2 - The China Index Academy recently released the October financing report, indicating that the total bond financing in the real estate sector for October 2025 reached 51.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76.9% [1] - The issuance of credit bonds in October also saw a year-on-year increase, primarily from state-owned enterprises, with real estate credit bond financing amounting to 32.7 billion yuan, up 50.7% year-on-year, accounting for 63.8% of the total [1] Group 3 - CITIC Securities suggests that 2026 may be a critical year for real estate companies to enter a balance sheet repair phase, with some firms potentially reaching the bottom of a long-term profit cycle [1] - Companies that manage to recover first are likely those with well-positioned assets in good cities, operational investment properties, or financial assets with appreciation potential [1]

Group 1 - Hong Kong property stocks experienced an upward trend in early trading [1] - R&F Properties (02777.HK) rose by 3.64%, trading at HKD 0.57 [1] - Longfor Group (00960.HK) increased by 2.94%, trading at HKD 10.51 [1] - China Resources Land (01109.HK) saw a rise of 2.75%, trading at HKD 29.88 [1] - Oceanwide Holdings (03377.HK) gained 1.9%, trading at HKD 0.107 [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights a positive trend in the Chinese real estate sector, with several major property stocks experiencing gains in early trading, including R&F Properties up 3.64% and Longfor Group up 2.94% [1] - According to Open Source Securities, as of October 31, a total of 438.4 billion yuan in special bonds for land reserves have been issued, with 319.8 billion yuan specifically for affordable housing projects [1] - The urban development is shifting from large-scale expansion to improving existing stock, emphasizing high-quality urban development and urban renewal projects, with an estimated investment demand of 4 trillion yuan over the next five years [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities indicates that the supply and demand situation in the real estate market has improved, suggesting a foundation for stabilization by 2026 [1] - The year 2026 is projected to be critical for real estate companies in terms of balance sheet recovery, with some firms potentially reaching a long-term profitability bottom [1] - Companies that have successfully navigated challenges are likely to be those with strong urban positioning, well-operating investment properties, or valuable financial assets [1]