| --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 | [Table_Title] 短期承压，积极调整 | | 公司研究 | [Table_ReportDate] 2024 年 08 月 27 日 | | [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 | [Table_Summary] 事件：公司发布 2024 年中期报告， ...

Financial Performance - Revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 1,259,511 thousand, a decrease of 11.0% compared to RMB 1,414,764 thousand in the same period of 2023[2] - Gross profit for the same period was RMB 697,657 thousand, down 6.1% from RMB 742,813 thousand year-on-year[2] - Profit before tax decreased significantly by 61.5% to RMB 56,769 thousand from RMB 147,396 thousand in the previous year[2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the period was RMB 32,913 thousand, a decline of 67.7% compared to RMB 101,742 thousand in 2023[2] - Total comprehensive income for the six months ending June 30, 2024, was RMB 37.7 million, a decrease of 68.1% compared to RMB 118.2 million for the same period in 2023[33] - The total tax expense for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 23,856,000, compared to RMB 45,654,000 in the same period of 2023, representing a decrease of approximately 47.8%[86] - The basic and diluted earnings per share for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 0.01, down from RMB 0.04 in 2023[61] Store Operations - Total number of stores as of June 30, 2024, was 3,456, down from 3,706 in the previous year[3] - Revenue from self-operated stores was RMB 696,877 thousand, representing 55.3% of total revenue, down from 53.1% in the previous year[5] - The company is focusing on improving store quality rather than merely increasing the number of stores, assessing long-term growth potential[14] - As of June 30, 2024, the company successfully opened 127 "dual-format stores" in Wuhan and surrounding areas to meet diverse consumer demands[14] Sales and Marketing - Total sales volume for the period was 14,618 tons, a decrease from 15,791 tons in the same period last year[3] - Average spending per purchase order was RMB 55.57, down from RMB 62.01 year-on-year[3] - The company has strengthened its member system and private domain operations, focusing on personalized marketing activities to attract younger consumers[16] - The company launched a store incentive program to enhance employee motivation and improve service quality, resulting in innovative sales strategies[15] Cost Management - Cost of sales reduced by 16.4% to RMB 561.9 million, primarily due to a decrease in product sales volume and lower raw material prices[22] - Gross profit declined by 6.1% to RMB 697.7 million, but the gross profit margin increased from 52.5% to 55.4%[23] - Financial expenses decreased by 58.1% to RMB 6.0 million, mainly due to the redemption of all convertible bonds in the second half of 2023[25] - Selling and distribution expenses increased by 6.5% to RMB 505.0 million, driven by the expansion of offline self-operated stores[26] Assets and Liabilities - As of June 30, 2024, the group's net asset value was RMB 3,698.9 million, down from RMB 3,935.4 million as of December 31, 2023[36] - Current assets decreased to RMB 1,946,543 thousand from RMB 2,130,825 thousand, representing a decline of about 8.6%[65] - Total liabilities increased to RMB 805,061 thousand from RMB 684,184 thousand, marking an increase of approximately 17.6%[65] - The group's debt-to-asset ratio increased from 19.6% as of December 31, 2023, to 21.2% as of June 30, 2024, primarily due to the bank borrowings of RMB 150.0 million[44] Cash Flow - The net cash generated from operating activities for the six months ended June 30, 2024, is approximately RMB 193.8 million, compared to RMB 156.6 million for the same period in 2023[46] - The net cash generated from investing activities for the six months ended June 30, 2024, is approximately RMB 374.4 million, slightly down from RMB 376.8 million for the same period in 2023[47] - The net cash used in financing activities for the six months ended June 30, 2024, is approximately RMB 249.2 million, compared to RMB 241.5 million for the same period in 2023[47] Strategic Initiatives - The company is undergoing organizational iterations to enhance brand competitiveness and achieve stable, high-quality growth in the second half of 2024[18] - The company is optimizing its supply chain to support the new "dual-format" business model, ensuring efficient resource allocation[17] - The company is committed to enhancing product quality, introducing various classic flavored products to differentiate itself in a competitive market[16] - The group plans to utilize internal resources and IPO proceeds for expansion and business operations[34] Shareholder Information - The group has not declared any interim dividend for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to an interim dividend of HKD 0.12 per share in the same period of 2023[88] - The group repurchased 81,580,000 shares at a total cost of HKD 147,687,203.00 on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange[35] - The group’s reserves available for distribution to shareholders amounted to approximately RMB 1,140.6 million as of June 30, 2024[59] Market Position - The company continues to focus on the production, marketing, and retail of duck leisure products in mainland China, with no specific new product launches or technological advancements mentioned in the provided data[68] - The group’s primary business is the production, marketing, and retail of duck leisure products, with all revenue generated from mainland China[72][73]

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry - The discussion revolves around the company's strategic adjustments in response to current market conditions and consumer behavior trends. Core Points and Arguments - The company has conducted internal reflections and reviews to adapt to the changing market environment and the more cautious and rational consumption trends of consumers this year [1]. - A significant restructuring of key strategies was initiated at the beginning of the year to align with these market changes [1]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The emphasis on understanding consumer behavior indicates a proactive approach to market dynamics, suggesting potential future investments in consumer research and analytics [1].

Summary of Conference Call Transcript Company/Industry Involved - The discussion involves a listed company in the transportation service sector, focusing on community and commercial circle electric models. Core Points and Arguments - There is a noticeable increase in voluntary demand feedback from the company's leadership, indicating a positive market sentiment in the second quarter compared to the first quarter [1] - The company is analyzing the year-over-year performance of different electric models, particularly in the transportation service sector, to assess single-key revenue trends [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The call highlights the importance of understanding market demand and competition dynamics as they evolve from the first to the second quarter [1]

Summary of the Conference Call Company and Industry - The conference call primarily discusses **Zhou Hei Ya**, a company in the **snack food industry**, specifically focusing on **marinated food products**. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Demand and Sales Performance** - Since October 2023, consumer income expectations and consumption information have not shown significant improvement, remaining relatively low compared to the previous year. Overall store sales are still lagging behind last year's figures, reflecting a similar trend across the industry [3][4][22]. 2. **Sales Channels and Performance Gaps** - Different sales channels, including transportation hubs, commercial areas, and communities, are experiencing sales gaps compared to last year. The first quarter of 2023 had a high base, contributing to the current performance challenges [4][12]. 3. **Strategic Focus on New Product Offerings** - The company is focusing on **electronic sales** as a core strategy, introducing a new dual-product model that combines hot and bulk products to enhance store efficiency [5][11]. 4. **Store Performance Variability** - Initial tests of the new product offerings in about 70-80 stores show mixed results, with some stores performing well while others are still under observation. More stable data will be available after three months of operation [7][28]. 5. **Store Renovation and Opening Strategy** - The majority of the new dual-product stores are renovations rather than new openings, as renovations are quicker and less costly. The renovation cost is estimated to be between 10,000 to 20,000 yuan per store [14][18]. 6. **Consumer Behavior and Pricing Sensitivity** - In a downtrending consumption environment, consumers are becoming more rational and price-sensitive. The introduction of lower-priced products aims to meet this demand [12][13]. 7. **Competition and Market Dynamics** - The marinated food industry faces competition from emerging snack stores and small vendors, which may divert consumer spending. However, the company believes it maintains a competitive edge in terms of food safety and brand reputation [19][22][24]. 8. **Future Growth and Expansion Plans** - The company plans to open around 300 new dual-product stores, primarily in Wuhan and surrounding areas, while also considering expansion into other regions based on the success of current models [45][46]. 9. **Product Safety and Supply Chain Management** - The company emphasizes strict control over food safety, especially with the introduction of bulk and hot products. Daily supply chain management is in place to ensure product quality [54][55]. 10. **Financial Metrics and Profitability** - Transportation hub stores contribute approximately 20% of total revenue, with a slightly higher profit margin compared to other channels. The average payback period for new stores is estimated to be within 18 months [37][42]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The company is actively exploring partnerships with new retail channels, such as Costco, to enhance market reach and adapt to changing consumer preferences [23][24]. - The dual-product model is designed to cater to different consumer needs, such as convenience for on-the-go purchases versus immediate consumption [30][31]. - The company is continuously refining its product offerings based on consumer feedback and market trends, indicating a responsive approach to changing market dynamics [50][52].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on enhancing single-store revenue through the introduction of a "fresh goods + hot marinated" dual-store model, emphasizing private domain operations, and strengthening brand youthfulness [2]. - The dual-store model aims to expand the consumer base by combining casual and meal-oriented marinated products, with an average transaction value of over 20 yuan, leading to increased foot traffic and improved store efficiency [2]. - The company plans to open and renovate a certain number of dual-store formats over the next two years, while also returning to classic flavors to differentiate from competitors [2]. - The emphasis on private domain construction is seen as a way to supplement online growth, with the company starting to build a private domain platform to enhance customer engagement and transaction frequency [2]. - The company is targeting the youth demographic through campus initiatives, aiming to promote brand recognition among young consumers [2]. Financial Forecasts - The projected net profit for 2024-2026 is 211 million, 281 million, and 318 million yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18, 13, and 12 times [3]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 2,744 million yuan in 2023 to 4,364 million yuan by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [4]. - The net profit margin is projected to improve from 4.2% in 2023 to 7.3% in 2026, indicating a positive trend in profitability [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of 10-20% from the current level [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of CNY 2.744 billion for 2023, a year-on-year increase of 17.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 116 million, reflecting a significant growth of 357.1% [2][3]. - The company plans to focus on enhancing store efficiency in 2024, with projected store counts of 4,036 and 4,346 for 2024 and 2025, respectively, down from previous estimates of 4,666 and 5,476 [2]. - The forecasted net profits for 2024-2026 are CNY 207 million, CNY 254 million, and CNY 308 million, representing year-on-year growth rates of 79%, 23%, and 21% respectively [2][3]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue and profit forecasts for the company are as follows: - 2024E Revenue: CNY 3.137 billion, 14% growth - 2025E Revenue: CNY 3.511 billion, 12% growth - 2026E Revenue: CNY 3.871 billion, 10% growth - 2024E Net Profit: CNY 207 million, 79% growth - 2025E Net Profit: CNY 254 million, 23% growth - 2026E Net Profit: CNY 308 million, 21% growth [3][8]. Operational Highlights - The company has accelerated the expansion of its transportation hub stores, with a total of 3,816 stores at the end of the reporting period, including 1,720 self-operated and 2,096 franchised stores [2]. - The average revenue per self-operated store increased by 7.9% year-on-year, while franchised stores saw a decline of 2.5% [2]. - The company is diversifying its consumer reach through delivery services and e-commerce platforms, with a focus on late-night dining scenarios [2].

Store Expansion and Operations - In 2023, Zhou Hei Ya had a total of 3,816 retail stores, focusing on store expansion in transportation hubs and high-potential business zones[11]. - As of December 31, 2023, the total number of stores reached 3,816, focusing on transportation hubs and high-potential business districts to enhance operational efficiency[12]. - The Group recorded a net increase of 141 stores located in transportation hubs, bringing the total to 319 stores by the end of 2023[29]. - The number of self-operated retail stores in 2023 was 1,720, which is a 19% increase from 1,446 in 2022[27]. - The overall market presence of offline stores has been bolstered through a dual-drive model of self-operation and franchising[22][23]. - The Group's focus on high-potential shopping zones and commercial complexes aims to adapt to changing consumer preferences and improve store performance[29]. - The Group's strategy includes optimizing low-performing stores and enhancing operational efficiency through regular reviews of operational data[29][30]. Financial Performance - The total revenue for 2023 reached RMB 2,248,991,000, representing a 21.6% increase from RMB 1,848,258,000 in 2022[25]. - The Group's total revenue increased by 17.1% from RMB2,343.4 million in 2022 to RMB2,743.6 million in 2023, driven by the recovery of the economy and consumer market, leading to increased sales from offline stores[49]. - Gross profit increased by 11.5% from RMB1,289.5 million in 2022 to RMB1,438.2 million in 2023, with a gross profit margin of 52.4%, down from 55.0% in 2022[54]. - Profit before tax surged by 291.3% from RMB54.7 million in 2022 to RMB214.1 million in 2023[51]. - Profit for the year increased by 357.1% from RMB25.3 million in 2022 to RMB115.6 million in 2023[51]. - Basic and diluted earnings per share rose to RMB0.05 in 2023, compared to RMB0.01 in 2022, reflecting a 400.0% increase[51]. - Total comprehensive income for the year was RMB125.8 million, up 61.3% from RMB78.0 million in 2022[51]. Cost Management and Efficiency - Zhou Hei Ya prioritized supply assurance, quality improvement, and cost reduction, effectively mitigating the impact of rising raw material costs on gross profit margin[11]. - The Group achieved a gross profit margin of 52.4% by effectively mitigating cost pressures from rising raw material prices through supply chain optimization[42]. - Cost of sales rose by 23.9% from RMB1,053.9 million in 2022 to RMB1,305.5 million in 2023, attributed to higher sales volume and significant increases in raw material prices[53]. - Selling and distribution expenses increased by 5.6% from RMB930.5 million in 2022 to RMB983.0 million in 2023, primarily due to increased rent and salaries as offline store operations normalized[61]. - Administrative expenses rose by 2.1% from RMB310.4 million in 2022 to RMB317.0 million in 2023, primarily due to credit loss allowances and increased preparation costs for the Sichuan processing facility[66][64]. Consumer Market Trends - The global economy showed slow recovery, while the Chinese economy demonstrated good momentum despite challenges in consumer demand and confidence[9]. - The consumer market in China is experiencing structural disparities, with a shift towards more affordable products and an emphasis on personal value and experiences[19]. - The overall consumption environment is expected to gradually rebound amid fluctuations, with a focus on maintaining strategic determination for steady expansion[16]. - The integration of online and offline channels is accelerating, improving the overall shopping experience for consumers[20]. Product Innovation and Marketing - The company implemented strategies to enhance operational efficiency and introduced cost-effective new products and packages to align with consumer preferences[10]. - The company introduced a variety of cost-effective new products and packages, aiming to build a product matrix that caters to diverse consumer needs[13]. - The Group launched a new flavor in its premium product series, achieving terminal sales (including tax) of approximately RMB 521 million[39]. - The Group's offline marketing initiatives, such as "Scratch Card" and "Super Wednesday," successfully increased consumer participation and purchase interest[40]. - The Group is committed to continuous product innovation and brand marketing to cater to evolving consumer preferences[37]. Cash Flow and Financial Position - As of December 31, 2023, the Group's net assets were approximately RMB3,935.4 million, down from RMB4,088.3 million in 2022[82]. - Cash and bank deposits decreased from RMB1,245.2 million in 2022 to approximately RMB1,074.5 million in 2023, consisting of RMB277.6 million in unrestricted cash and RMB796.9 million in term deposits[83]. - For the year ended December 31, 2023, net cash generated from operating activities decreased to approximately RMB361.2 million from RMB467.6 million in 2022, primarily due to an increase in inventory and trade receivables[98][102]. - Net cash generated from investing activities was approximately RMB563.2 million for the year ended December 31, 2023, down from RMB1,044.4 million in 2022, mainly due to the redemption of structured deposits and other financial assets[99][106]. - Net cash used in financing activities was approximately RMB1,046.5 million for the year ended December 31, 2023, compared to RMB1,318.3 million in 2022, primarily due to dividends paid and the repurchase of convertible bonds[103][105]. Shareholder and Governance - The Group's reserves available for distribution to shareholders amounted to approximately RMB 948.2 million[115]. - The Group's dividend policy intends to distribute not less than 60% of the profit attributable to owners of the Company for a financial year, subject to various financial considerations[151]. - The Group has complied with all relevant laws and regulations that significantly impact its operations during the reporting period[141]. - The Group's principal activity is to produce and retail casual braised food[135]. Environmental and Social Responsibility - The Group has enhanced its environmental management system, focusing on energy and resource consumption efficiency during the year ended December 31, 2023[139]. - The Group has implemented solid waste sorting and recycling management to promote a circular economy and reduce waste generation[140]. - The Group continues to improve its long-term communication mechanisms with stakeholders to manage environmental and social regulatory risks effectively[145].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][8] Core Views - The report highlights a recovery in revenue and a significant increase in profit, with total revenue reaching 2.744 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 17.1%, and a net profit of 116 million HKD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 357.1% [5][8] - The company is actively pursuing a "self-operated + franchising" dual-drive model to enhance the quality of its offline stores, with a total of 3,816 stores as of 2023 [5][6] - The report anticipates continued revenue growth, projecting total revenues of 3.141 billion HKD in 2024, 3.547 billion HKD in 2025, and 3.938 billion HKD in 2026 [8][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 2.744 billion HKD, up 17.08% year-on-year, while the gross profit margin decreased by 2.61 percentage points to 52.42% due to rising raw material costs [5][6] - The net profit margin increased by 3.13 percentage points, resulting in a net profit of 116 million HKD [5][10] Business Model and Strategy - The company continues to implement a dual-drive model of "self-operated + franchising," with self-operated stores generating 1.466 billion HKD (53.4% of total revenue) and franchised stores contributing 783 million HKD (28.5%) [5][6] - The company is focusing on optimizing store locations and improving operational efficiency, particularly in high-demand areas [5][6] Product Development - The company has diversified its product offerings, introducing new flavors and price ranges to attract a broader consumer base, with a notable sales contribution from lower-priced products [8][10] Future Projections - The report forecasts a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.08 HKD in 2024, 0.11 HKD in 2025, and 0.14 HKD in 2026 [8][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has significantly improved customer order numbers, with a focus on enhancing store operations [1] - The company has expanded its product price range and categories, leading to a 20% increase in customer orders despite a 1.73% decrease in average transaction value [4] - The company is actively integrating online and offline channels, with notable sales in late-night delivery and in-store promotions [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 2.744 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 17.1%, and a net profit of 116 million RMB, up 357.1% [4] - The company plans to repurchase up to 400 million HKD of its shares to boost shareholder confidence [5] Store Expansion and Quality - The company increased its store count by 387 to a total of 3,816 stores in 2023, with a strong focus on key transportation hubs [4] - The number of stores in transportation hubs rose to 319, an increase of 141 stores year-on-year [4] Cost Management and Profitability - The company's gross margin was 52.42%, a decrease of 2.61 percentage points due to rising raw material costs [5] - The company improved its net profit margin to 4.21%, an increase of 3.13 percentage points year-on-year, aided by better cost management [5] Earnings Forecast - The company expects EPS of 0.08, 0.10, and 0.13 RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21, 16, and 12 [6][7]