机构：广发证券 研究员：糜韩杰 2026 年预计公司有望保持稳健增长。其中，安踏主品牌有望保持稳健增长，主要基于灯塔计划，门店 持续改造，新业态新店型持续跑通，海外继续发力。FILA 品牌势能良好，有望持续保持增长。其他品 牌虽然规模变大，但考虑到品牌竞争力和行业景气度，仍有望保持较快增长。 盈利预测与投资建议。预计公司25-27 年EPS 为4.70/5.12/5.79 元/股，参考可比公司，且考虑公司作为行 业龙头，竞争力强，给予公司26年PE18 倍，对应合理价值102.81 港元/股，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示。安踏主品牌受挫、FILA 和Amer 海外业务低于预期等风险。 所有其他品牌保持高增长。2025Q4，我们预计迪桑特快速增长，可隆预计强劲增长，前者预计主要系 冰雪运动景气度高，品牌在专业运动领域拥有扎实基础，门店结构优质，店效高质量增长，后者预计主 要系户外消费势头良好，品牌持续推进全国化布局，持续加大产品的投入。 公司公告2025 年第四季度及全年营运表现。2025Q4，安踏主品牌零售金额同比低单位数下降，FILA 品 牌零售金额同比中单位数增长，所有其他品牌零售金额同比35-40%增长 ...

纺织服员饰 2026 年 01 月 25 日 本周发布 25 年报前瞻，澳毛周期、无纺布制造可期 -纺织服装行业周报 20260125 相关研究 《安踏体育 (02020) 点评: 全年各品牌 增长指引达成，户外品牌内生动能依然强 劲》 2026/01/22 《品牌服饰表现分化,澳毛周期、无纺布 制造可期 --- 纺织服装行业 2025 年报业 绩前瞻》 2026/01/21 《澳毛复拍价格阶段性新高, 25Q4 港股 运动略超预期 -- 纺织服装行业周报 20260118》 2026/01/18 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 求佳峰 A0230523060001 qiujf@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱本伦 A0230125090001 zhubl@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱本伦 A0230125090001 zhubl@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 本期投资提示: 长讨/分享 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各 ...

业 及 产 业 纺织服饰 2026 年 01 月 25 日 本周发布 25 年报前瞻，澳毛周期、无纺布制造可期 看好 ——纺织服装行业周报 20260125 相关研究 《安踏体育（02020）点评：全年各品牌 增长指引达成，户外品牌内生动能依然强 劲》 2026/01/22 《品牌服饰表现分化，澳毛周期、无纺布 制造可期——纺织服装行业 2025 年报业 绩前瞻》 2026/01/21 《澳毛复拍价格阶段性新高，25Q4 港股 运动略超预期——纺织服装行业周报 20260118》 2026/01/18 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 求佳峰 A0230523060001 qiujf@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱本伦 A0230125090001 zhubl@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱本伦 A0230125090001 zhubl@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读 ...

[Table_Title] 【广发 纺 服 & 海 外 】 安 踏 体 育 （02020.HK） 25Q4 安踏承压，FILA 回暖，其他品牌保持高增长 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | | | | [Table_ 单位 Finance] :人民币百万元 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入 | 62,356 | 70,826 | 77,464 | 85,221 | 94,684 | | 增长率（ % ） | 16.2% | 13.6% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 11.1% | | EBITDA | 19,708 | 23,861 | 24,689 | 26,748 | 29,797 | | 归母净利润 | 10,236 | 15,596 | 13,142 | 14,325 | 16,198 | | 增长率（ % ） | 34.9% | 52.4% | -15.7% | 9.0% | 13.1% | | EPS（元/股） | 3.61 | 5.52 | ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [6] Core Insights - Anta's Q4 2025 operational data shows a decline in main brand sales, while FILA and other brands experienced low single-digit negative growth and mid-single-digit positive growth, respectively. For the entire year of 2025, Anta, FILA, and other brands recorded retail sales growth of low single digits, mid-single digits, and 45-50% positive growth [2][3] - Xtep's Q4 2025 operational data indicates that the main brand's retail sales remained flat, with discounts ranging from 70% to 75%. The Saucony brand achieved over 30% year-on-year growth in retail sales. For the full year of 2025, Xtep's main brand and Saucony recorded low single-digit and over 30% positive growth in retail sales, respectively [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - Anta's Q4 2025 operational data shows a decline in main brand sales, while FILA and other brands experienced low single-digit negative growth and mid-single-digit positive growth, respectively. For the entire year of 2025, Anta, FILA, and other brands recorded retail sales growth of low single digits, mid-single digits, and 45-50% positive growth [2][3] - Xtep's Q4 2025 operational data indicates that the main brand's retail sales remained flat, with discounts ranging from 70% to 75%. The Saucony brand achieved over 30% year-on-year growth in retail sales. For the full year of 2025, Xtep's main brand and Saucony recorded low single-digit and over 30% positive growth in retail sales, respectively [2][3] 2. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84%, while the SW textile and apparel sector increased by 3.83%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.99% [14] - The top five stocks in the textile and apparel sector by weekly increase were Tianchuang Fashion, Yanjing Co., Mengjie Co., Tanshan Outdoor, and Sanfu Outdoor [14] 3. Industry Data Tracking 3.1. Raw Material Data - The Australian wool market index rose by 6.49% in the week ending January 15, 2026, and has increased by 38.49% since the beginning of 2025 [4][32] - The cotton price index in China decreased slightly, with a year-to-date increase of 1.83% as of January 23, 2026 [26] 3.2. Export Data - In 2025, textile and apparel exports totaled $267.79 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.26% [45] - In December 2025, the export value of oilcloth, tents, and sunshades decreased by 8.89% year-on-year [50] 3.3. End Consumer Data - In December 2025, the online retail sales of the apparel industry decreased by 11.93% year-on-year, with a total of 45.55 billion yuan [3.3.4] - The total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2025 grew by 0.9% year-on-year, while online retail sales increased by 8.6% [3.3.5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese industries of sports apparel, beauty, and jewelry, highlighting the potential for experience-driven growth in 2026 amidst a backdrop of overall consumer trend sluggishness due to economic stability concerns, consumer confidence, and unemployment [1][3]. Core Insights and Arguments Experience-Driven Growth - There is a growing preference among Chinese consumers for experience-driven consumption, driven by: 1. A desire for healthier and emotionally fulfilling lifestyles 2. Strong demand for social relationships 3. Supportive government policies [3][7]. - Companies that successfully provide unique emotional resonance in consumer experiences are expected to capture greater market share and enjoy higher valuation premiums [1]. Key Success Factors for Sustainable Quality Experience - Three critical success factors for providing sustainable quality experiences in offline channels are identified: 1. Controlled store expansion to maintain service quality and avoid internal competition 2. Direct-to-consumer business models for better operational control and rapid feedback 3. Comprehensive employee management systems to ensure high service quality [3][68]. Jewelry Industry Insights - The ancient gold segment in the jewelry industry is projected to continue double-digit growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 50% from 2018 to 2025. This growth is attributed to: 1. Improved craftsmanship leading to better designs 2. The rise of national trends 3. A combination of aesthetic and value preservation demands [3][47]. - Lao Pu Gold is expected to benefit significantly from experience-driven growth due to its controlled store count (47 stores compared to 2,000-6,000 for competitors), direct-to-consumer model, and a well-trained team providing differentiated service quality. The company is projected to achieve a 40% year-on-year profit growth in 2026 [3][76]. Beauty Industry Insights - The beauty industry is expected to grow at a low single-digit rate in 2026, with intense competition. Mao Geping is well-positioned to benefit from experience-driven consumption trends due to: 1. Higher offline presence compared to competitors (approximately 50% vs. less than 25%) 2. Unique value-added personalized beauty and skincare services supported by a large team of trained beauty consultants [3][40]. - Mao Geping is projected to achieve nearly 30% year-on-year profit growth in 2026 [3]. Sports Apparel Industry Insights - The sports apparel industry is expected to achieve low to mid-single-digit growth in 2026, benefiting from increasing health awareness and supportive government policies. Anta is highlighted for its strong multi-brand product portfolio and overseas expansion potential, with a forecasted profit growth of over 10% in 2026 [3][76]. Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional value in consumer decision-making, with over 80% of consumers prioritizing emotional value as the second most important factor after product quality [25][26]. - The government is focusing on enhancing consumer confidence and purchasing power through various measures, including promoting wage growth and expanding cultural and tourism consumption [34][32]. - The report also notes the increasing popularity of experience consumption among younger consumers, particularly in areas such as fitness, live music events, and outdoor activities [15][16]. This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed overview of the current state and future potential of the Chinese sports apparel, beauty, and jewelry industries, emphasizing the importance of experience-driven growth and consumer engagement strategies.

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of integrating cultural symbols, sports spirit, core technology, and key market segments for brands to maintain a competitive edge in the market during the Year of the Horse [1][34] - The marketing strategies of various sports brands during the Year of the Horse are highlighted, showcasing their efforts to avoid homogenization and find a balance between cultural deconstruction and brand expression [5][34] Group 1: Cultural Significance of the Horse - The preference for the "Horse" symbol among sports brands is rooted in its rich cultural connotations and strong spiritual symbolism, representing speed, endurance, and success [2][4] - The Horse's image resonates deeply with consumers, making it an effective marketing symbol that connects emotionally and culturally [2][4] Group 2: Marketing Strategies - Brands are employing three main marketing strategies: cultural empowerment, emotional resonance, and product performance linkage [5][13] - Cultural empowerment involves leveraging traditional symbols and values associated with the Horse to create meaningful marketing narratives [5][7] - Emotional resonance focuses on connecting the Horse's spirit with consumers' experiences and attitudes towards life and sports [13][15] Group 3: Product Integration - Brands are integrating the Horse's imagery and spirit into their product designs, enhancing the emotional and cultural value of their offerings [4][9] - Examples include PUMA's "Puma Power" series and Anta's collaboration with Xu Beihong's "Galloping Horses" painting, showcasing a blend of traditional art and modern sports aesthetics [7][9] Group 4: Future Marketing Opportunities - The Year of the Horse in 2026 is anticipated to be a significant marketing opportunity, particularly with the integration of the Horse theme into marathon events [28][30] - The alignment of the Horse's symbolism with the endurance and spirit of marathon running presents a unique marketing angle for brands [30][32] - The potential for "Horse Year × Marathon" marketing strategies could lead to innovative product offerings and deeper consumer engagement [32][34]

Group 1: Market Reaction and Investment Opportunities - The Chinese U23 men's football team achieved a historic victory, defeating Vietnam 3-0, which triggered a surge in "football concept stocks" in the capital market, including companies like Tsinghua Tongfang and Inpai [1] - The victory is seen as a catalyst for a valuation recovery in the football industry, signaling a potential market shift as the 2026 World Cup approaches, which is expected to be a "football year" with significant economic implications [1][2] - The unexpected rise of the U23 team is accelerating interest in the football market, with amateur player numbers nearly doubling to 980,000 in 2025, indicating a growing commercial demand [2] Group 2: Industry Growth and Projections - China's sports event market is projected to reach nearly 40 billion yuan by 2025, while the broader outdoor sports industry is expected to exceed 3 trillion yuan [3] - The demand for artificial turf in football fields is anticipated to grow significantly, with over 54% of future demand coming from renovations rather than new constructions [4] - The Chinese sports apparel market is expected to reach $27 billion by 2026, driven by companies like Anta and Li Ning, which are focusing on youth leagues and national team sponsorships [4] Group 3: Technological Integration and AI in Football - The upcoming 2026 World Cup presents a complex challenge for event services, with an increase in teams and matches, necessitating advanced technology for logistics and audience engagement [6] - Lenovo, as a technology partner for the World Cup, is leveraging AI to enhance various aspects of the event, including tactical analysis and real-time officiating support [6][7] - The global sports market for AI is projected to grow from $1.2 billion in 2024 to $4.7 billion by 2034, indicating a significant opportunity for tech companies in the sports sector [7] Group 4: Policy Support and Long-term Outlook - The Chinese government's "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the role of the sports industry in boosting domestic demand and economic resilience, with a target of over 70,000 football fields by 2025 [8] - The development of a grassroots competition system is underway, with urban leagues being established across 16 provinces, fostering a non-commercial growth model that supports the entire industry chain [8] - Analysts caution that while the football industry shows promise, the path to monetization remains complex, with future growth likely stemming from the integration of sports and technology [9]

机构：中金公司 研究员：杨润渤/林骥川/宋习缘/陈婕 公司近况 4Q25 安踏品牌流水同降低单位数，FILA品牌流水同增中单位数，其他品牌（不含2024 年初后新增品 牌）流水同增35-40%。 风险 评论 终端零售环境不及预期，行业竞争加剧，品牌提升不及预期。 面对零售环境偏弱、天气偏暖、行业竞争激烈以及节庆错期等因素带来的不利影响，集团中高端品牌展 现出良好的增长韧性。 安踏品牌面对激烈竞争的大众市场，季内流水同比小幅下滑低单位数。公司坚持品牌长期价值，冠军系 列2025 年末已达150 家门店，全年流水突破10 亿元；年内累计改造近300 家灯塔店，店效较普通门店提 升60%+。公司严格执行经营纪律，季内线下折扣稳定在71 折，线上折扣同比收窄2ppt 至5 折，季末库 销比略高于5x。 FILA 品牌围绕体验升级与品牌表达，4Q25 零售流水同增中单位数，其中FILA 大货同增高单位数， KIDS 和FUSION 均同增低单位数。线上渠道同增低双位数表现出色，羽绒服/老爹鞋品类在天猫抖音平 台稳居第一。季内线下/线上折扣分别73/55 折，季末库销比略高于5x，保持在可控区间。 其他品牌坚持高质量增长 ...

研究员：杨欣/赵中平/杨雨钦 业绩简评 公司于1 月20 日公布2025Q4 运营情况。安踏主品牌Q4 零售额同比录得低单位数负增长；FILA 同比录 得中单位数正增长；其他品牌（不含2024 年1 月1 日后新加入品牌）同比录得35-40%正増长。2025 全 年安踏主品牌同比录得低单位数正增长；FILA 同比录得中单位数正增长；所有其他品牌同比录得45- 50%正增长。 机构：国金证券 主品牌Q4 流水小幅下降，全年流水实现稳健增长。安踏主品牌Q4零售流水同比小幅下滑，主要受外部 需求与竞争环境恶化影响，同时电商业务仍处于调整期。经营质量方面，线下折扣率稳定在约七一折， 线上折扣率较同比收窄2pct 至约五五折，库销比略高于5倍（健康区间）。新业态门店表现突出，冠军 系列年末门店达150家、流水破10 亿；灯塔店效率较普通门店高出超60%。海外业务持续推进，美国及 东南亚等市场加速布局，为中长期增长提供支撑。25 全年安踏主品牌流水同比低单位数增长，符合指 引。 FILA 流水稳健增长，26 年有望延续增长势头。FILAQ4 实现中单位数增长，且较前三季度环比加速,其 中FILA 大货线下实现高单位数增长 ...