Core Viewpoint - Nomura analysts predict that Li Ning's sales are likely to rebound in the second half of the year due to a lower comparative base, despite a decline in sales from May to June [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Li Ning's sales experienced a decrease during the period from May to June [1] - The anticipated sales recovery is attributed to a lower comparative base in the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Brand Recognition - Recent operational improvements, such as brand ambassador Yang Hansheng's breakthrough in the NBA, are expected to enhance Li Ning's brand recognition in the long term [1] Group 3: Analyst Ratings - Nomura maintains a neutral rating on Li Ning with a target price of HKD 16.20 [1]

Company Overview - The major shareholder, Everbright, announced an increase in its stake in Li Ning Company by acquiring 18.09 million shares for a total of HKD 275 million at an average price of HKD 15.20 per share [1] Business Performance - Li Ning's basketball business is under pressure, with retail sales expected to decline by 21% in 2024, accounting for 21% of the company's overall sales [1] - Despite the challenges, Li Ning continues to sponsor various basketball leagues and is focused on launching new products and technologies to maintain brand positioning [1] - The company signed a player who was selected 16th in the 2025 NBA Draft, marking the third Chinese player to be a first-round pick, which is expected to enhance brand visibility in the basketball sector [1] Strategic Initiatives - In the second quarter of 2025, Li Ning's brand is still facing pressure from a volatile market environment and intense competition, particularly in retail and discounting [2] - The company aims to innovate in core categories like running and basketball while increasing exposure and investment in sports like badminton and table tennis [2] - A contract with the Chinese Olympic Committee was completed at the end of April, which is anticipated to lead to more marketing events in the second half of 2025 [2] Shareholder Confidence - The major shareholder's increase in stake from January to June 2025 reflects confidence in Li Ning's "single brand, multiple categories, and multi-channel" core strategy [2] Financial Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 and 2026 remains unchanged at CNY 0.92 and CNY 1.07, respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to 16 and 14 times the projected earnings for those years [2] - The target price is maintained at HKD 20.82, indicating a potential upside of 28% from the current stock price [2]

Core Viewpoint - The selection of Yang Hanshen as the 16th overall pick by the Portland Trail Blazers in the NBA draft marks a significant milestone for Chinese basketball and the Li Ning brand, potentially revitalizing Li Ning's basketball business and enhancing its overall brand influence [1][8]. Company Summary - Li Ning has shifted its focus towards CBA players in recent years, signing Yang Hanshen in 2023 and subsequently signing other young CBA stars in 2024, indicating a strategy to build a strong endorsement matrix within the domestic basketball scene [4][7]. - The brand's basketball business is expected to benefit from Yang Hanshen's NBA debut, as he becomes the first Chinese player to wear Li Ning shoes in the NBA, which could lead to increased visibility and sales for the brand [2][8]. - Li Ning's basketball equipment has been chosen by over 1,160 professional players and has been validated through more than 5,020 top-tier matches, showcasing the brand's commitment to the sport [4]. Industry Summary - The basketball shoe market in China remains competitive, with Li Ning holding a significant share despite a growing trend towards running shoes, which has seen a 25% increase in retail sales for Li Ning's running products [18]. - The overall retail revenue for Li Ning's basketball segment has declined by 21%, prompting the company to adjust its product focus while still achieving a 6.8% increase in total shoe revenue [18]. - The changing dynamics in sports viewership, particularly the declining interest in the NBA among Chinese fans, highlight the challenges faced by basketball brands, making the endorsement of a promising player like Yang Hanshen crucial for Li Ning's strategy [14][18].

智通财经6月27日电，香港交易所信息显示，贝莱德（BlackRock）在李宁的持股比例于06月23日从 5.11%降至4.94%。 ...

Group 1: Player's Selection and Impact - Yang Hanshen was selected as the 16th pick in the first round of the 2025 NBA Draft, making him the first Chinese player selected since 2016 and the ninth in history [1][2] - His selection is seen as a win-win for both the Portland Trail Blazers and the NBA's expansion in the Chinese market [1][2] - Yang's contract is structured as "2+1+1" over four years, totaling $21.39 million, with salaries increasing from $4.42 million in 2025-26 to $7.46 million in 2028-29 [3] Group 2: Comparison with Previous Players - Yang's selection at 16th is the third-highest for a Chinese player, following Yao Ming (2002) and Yi Jianlian (2007) [2] - The NBA salaries have significantly increased, with the current top pick expected to earn $62 million over four years, compared to Yao Ming's $18 million and Yi Jianlian's $13 million contracts [3] Group 3: Commercial Value and Brand Partnerships - Yang has signed with Li Ning, becoming the main spokesperson for the "Yushuai" series, marking a significant partnership for a Chinese player with a domestic brand [5] - Following the draft, Li Ning's stock rose by 5%, indicating a positive market reaction to Yang's selection [5] - Yang's commercial potential is projected to exceed $10 million, similar to other Chinese players who have seen significant sponsorship growth after entering the NBA [8] Group 4: Market Potential and Fan Engagement - The NBA's influence in China has waned since 2016, and Yang's entry is expected to rejuvenate interest and commercial opportunities in the market [8] - The demand for Yang's jersey in China surged, with orders exceeding three times that of Damian Lillard's peak period [8] - The basketball population in China is approximately 125 million, with over 76 million core fans, highlighting the vast market potential for NBA engagement [9]

Market Overview - The market experienced a strong performance yesterday but faced a quick decline today, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.61% [1] - UBS warned that the current short squeeze in the US stock market may be nearing its end, with their tracked short squeeze index rising 43% recently [1] - Apollo Global's chief economist predicts a slowdown in US GDP growth to 1.2% by 2025, with inflation remaining around 3% and unemployment potentially rising to 4.4% or higher [1] Economic Indicators - Concerns were raised by Jerome Powell regarding the reliability of economic data collected by US government agencies, suggesting potential overestimations due to budget cuts [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought HKD 94.2 billion (approximately RMB 86.13 billion) to support the currency, indicating liquidity tightening in the market [2] Sector Performance - The securities sector failed to maintain its upward momentum, with leading firms like Guotai Junan International seeing a drop of over 4% [3] - The Hong Kong government announced a new policy to promote digital assets, aiming to position the city as a global innovation hub in this field [3] - Consumer sectors are gaining attention, with the "Hong Kong Happy Shopping Festival" set to offer over HKD 1.9 billion in discounts, attracting significant participation from brands [5] Company Developments - Rongchang Bio announced a deal with VorBio for USD 125 million in cash and warrants, but the market reacted negatively, viewing the price as too low [4] - Li Ning's major shareholder has been increasing their stake, which is expected to support the company's operational stability [8] - Li Ning's revenue from running products is projected to grow by 25% in 2024, with core categories like running, basketball, and training accounting for 64% of retail revenue [9] Stock Movements - Stocks in the aviation sector are expected to rise due to increased ticket bookings for the summer travel season, with domestic bookings up about 5% year-on-year [7] - The military sector saw gains following comments from Trump regarding potential conflicts, with companies like China Shipbuilding Defense and AVIC rising over 6% and 1.68% respectively [6] - The weakening US dollar has led to a rise in commodity stocks, with companies like Minmetals Resources and China Hongqiao seeing increases of over 4% [5]

Group 1 - BlackRock's shareholding in Li Ning decreased from 5.08% to 4.14% as of June 17 [1]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a rebound with all three major indices in the green, particularly the Hang Seng Index which rose by 1.26% to close at 23,530.48 points, with a total turnover of HKD 222.42 billion [1] - Citigroup raised its target price for the Hang Seng Index, citing minimal impact from the Middle East situation and clearer tariff developments, predicting better earnings growth for Hong Kong stocks next year [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Li Ning (02331) led blue-chip stocks with a 4.8% increase, closing at HKD 15.72, contributing 2.68 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Other notable performers included China Life (02628) up 4.74% and Sunny Optical Technology (02382) up 3.99%, while Xinyi Glass (00868) and PetroChina (00857) saw declines [2] Sector Performance - The banking sector showed strength with notable gains from banks like Minsheng Bank (01988) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398) [3][4] - The insurance sector also performed well, with China Life and New China Life (01336) both seeing significant increases [4] Shipping Sector Insights - The shipping sector experienced a strong performance, particularly due to rising tensions in the Middle East, with companies like Derun Shipping (02510) seeing a substantial increase of 35.68% [6][7] - Rental prices for oil tankers have surged, with rates for supertankers doubling from USD 19,998 per day to USD 47,609 per day [6] Solar Industry Developments - The solar sector faced challenges with reports of potential production cuts of 10%-15% in the third quarter, alongside stricter controls on below-cost sales [8] - Despite the negative sentiment, some industry players maintain optimistic pricing expectations, although analysts caution against this outlook [8] Notable Stock Movements - Non-Farm Holdings (00933) significantly increased its stake in Li Ning, leading to a 17.65% rise in its stock price [9] - China Duty Free Group (01880) saw a moderate increase of 2.19%, supported by favorable macroeconomic policies promoting tourism and consumption [11]

Group 1 - Key Point 1: 基石药业-B (02616) rose over 5% after its drug for lung cancer,舒格利单抗, received long-term survival data recognition in The Lancet Oncology, reinforcing its position as a first-line treatment in Europe [2] - Key Point 2: 海昌海洋公园 (02255) increased by over 4% as a major shareholder, 祥源控股, is set to acquire a 38.6% stake for HKD 22.95 billion, potentially alleviating liquidity pressures [2] - Key Point 3: 冠忠巴士 (00306) surged 27% with a projected 143% increase in annual pre-tax profit to HKD 165 million, driven by revenue growth, reduced fuel costs, and autonomous driving licenses [2] Group 2 - Key Point 1: 东方表行 (00398) fell over 5% due to a 5.2% decline in revenue and a 20% drop in net profit, attributed to weak luxury goods demand amid geopolitical conflicts and interest rate fluctuations [2] - Key Point 2: 北森控股 (09669) plummeted over 17% as its adjusted annual EBITDA was only HKD 28.9 million, with Everbright Securities lowering revenue forecasts by 10%-15% due to growth challenges [3] - Key Point 3: 顺丰控股 (06936) rose over 6% to a new high, with May express delivery revenue increasing by 13.4%, and the scaling of unmanned delivery vehicles potentially opening up future profit opportunities [3] Group 3 - Key Point 1: 中国中免 (01880) increased by over 5% as it accelerates the expansion of its duty-free stores, with 4 already opened and 9 more in preparation, benefiting from favorable policies [3] - Key Point 2: 华虹半导体 (01347) rose over 7% with a capacity utilization rate of 102.7%, and Tianfeng Securities optimistic about future contributions of USD 1.28 billion from its 9th factory [3] - Key Point 3: 网龙 (00777) increased over 3% after showcasing AI digital human presentation technology at a UN conference, launching the "EDA Education Metaverse" strategy, which catalyzed a revaluation of AI [4]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index increased by 1%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.6% [1] - Minsheng Bank saw a rise of 4%, with Sunny Optical Technology, China Life Insurance, and Li Ning all increasing by over 3% [1]