Group 1 - Goldman Sachs' chief China equity strategist Liu Jinjun's team has released a series of reports indicating that the mid-term investment value of Chinese private enterprises has improved due to macroeconomic, policy, and micro factors [1] - The research team has identified the "Top Ten Private Enterprises" in China, which includes Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, BYD, Meituan, NetEase, Midea, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, Ctrip, and Anta, similar to the "Big Seven" in the US stock market [1] - Goldman Sachs expects these "Top Ten Private Enterprises" to expand their dominance in the Chinese stock market, with all stocks rated as "Buy" by analysts [1] Group 2 - The total market capitalization of the "Top Ten Private Enterprises" is estimated at $1.6 trillion, accounting for 42% of the MSCI China Index weight, with an average daily trading volume of $11 billion [1] - The projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for earnings per share (EPS) over the next two years is 13%, indicating high market influence and investment appeal [1] - These enterprises demonstrate significant advantages in market capitalization, trading volume, profit growth potential, and valuation, making them worthy of investor attention [1] Group 3 - In the equity market, there are 5,121 listed private enterprises, with 3,771 listed on the A-share market and 1,350 on offshore markets, totaling a market capitalization of $9 trillion, which is 71% of the total MSCI China Index market capitalization [2] - The earnings weight of these private enterprises accounts for 31% of the index [2]

Core Viewpoint - The mid-term investment outlook for Chinese private enterprises is improving due to various macro, policy, and micro factors, as highlighted in a recent report by Goldman Sachs' chief China equity strategist Liu Jinjun [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Goldman Sachs has identified a list of ten favored Chinese private listed companies, referred to as the "Ten Giants," which include Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, BYD, Meituan, NetEase, Midea, Hengrui Medicine, Ctrip, and Anta [1] - The total market capitalization of these ten companies is approximately $1.6 trillion, accounting for 42% of the MSCI China Index weight, with a daily trading volume of $11 billion [1] - Analysts at Goldman Sachs project a 13% growth in earnings (compound annual growth rate) for the "Ten Giants" over the next two years, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 16 times [1] Group 2: Economic Themes - The "Ten Giants" are expected to reflect the latest economic themes in China, including advancements in artificial intelligence/technology, international expansion, new consumption trends, and enhanced shareholder returns [1] - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that investing in private enterprises does not exclude the preference for high-quality state-owned enterprises and shareholder return combinations [1]

Group 1 - Southbound funds had a significant net purchase of 5.743 billion yuan today [1] - In the Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shanghai), China Construction Bank and Meituan-W received net purchases of 1.108 billion HKD and 0.493 billion HKD respectively [1] - Xiaomi Group-W had the highest net sell amount, totaling 1.489 billion HKD [1] Group 2 - In the Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shenzhen), Meituan-W and Kangfang Biologics received net purchases of 0.622 billion HKD and 0.206 billion HKD respectively [1] - Xiaomi Group-W again had the highest net sell amount, amounting to 0.391 billion HKD [1]

Core Insights - The core argument is that instant retail and traditional e-commerce are not in a zero-sum game, but rather represent different branches of the broader e-commerce ecosystem, with instant retail addressing immediate consumer needs that traditional e-commerce struggles to fulfill [2][15]. Retail Evolution - The retail ecosystem has evolved from offline to online and now to instant retail, with offline retail still holding a significant market share of over 60% in China's retail market, projected to reach 47.14 trillion yuan in 2024 [3]. - Traditional e-commerce has reshaped the retail landscape over the past two decades, with a market size exceeding 15 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, focusing on planned purchases and price advantages [5]. Instant Retail Growth - Instant retail has rapidly gained traction, with a market size of 650 billion yuan in 2023, expected to surpass 1 trillion yuan by 2025, driven by platforms like Meituan and JD [6]. - It addresses immediate consumer needs, such as urgent grocery items or medicines, filling a gap left by traditional retail in terms of timely response [6][12]. Complementary Nature - Instant retail focuses on immediate needs, while traditional e-commerce targets planned purchases, creating a complementary relationship rather than a competitive one [7][8]. - The supply chain for traditional e-commerce relies on national logistics networks, while instant retail utilizes local stores and warehouses to meet high-frequency, urgent demands [9]. Market Dynamics - As of 2024, instant retail's market size is approximately 800 billion yuan, indicating it is still in its growth phase compared to traditional e-commerce and offline retail [12]. - The future growth of instant retail will involve integrating with traditional e-commerce and offline retail, enhancing service offerings to meet both planned and immediate consumer needs [13][14]. Future Outlook - The long-term market structure is expected to stabilize into a "three-way split," with offline retail focusing on experiential shopping, traditional e-commerce on planned purchases, and instant retail on urgent needs, each serving distinct consumer demands [14][15]. - The evolution of the retail ecosystem will be characterized by digital integration, allowing for a more seamless consumer experience across different retail formats [15].

6月16日，《国际金融报》记者获悉，饿了么宣布全面升级"优店腾跃计划"，追加10亿元专项投入，以费率优惠、流量扶持及AI技术赋能三重举措，进 一步抢占外卖商家服务赛道。而这一动作正值京东外卖订单量突破2500万单、市场格局从 "双雄争霸" 迈向 "三足鼎立" 的关键节点。 据介绍，即日起至8月底期间，饿了么将继续加码超过10亿元，通过提供新店最高3个月免佣、增加最高3个月新店期流量扶持权益，以及联合阿里生态 流量资源提高曝光和订单转化等系列升级举措，进一步吸引线下优质锁品牌以及中小餐饮商家入驻，更好支持优质餐饮商家的数字化生意增长。 饿了么加码该计划背后，行业竞争态势急剧变化。记者留意到，饿了么的"优店腾跃计划"始于今年3月，是平台2025年商家扶持战略的核心举措之一。 该计划承诺全年投入超10亿元，涵盖费率优惠、专项补贴、专属流量、数字化运营服务及AI技术赋能等多个维度，旨在帮助线下餐饮商家加速数字化转 型，拓展线上业务增量。 近年来，随着数字经济快速发展、城市化进程加速以及消费者生活方式转变，外卖已深度融入日常生活，成为餐饮行业的重要增长引擎。行业分析显 示，2024年，美团与饿了么两大平台合计占据98% ...

Financial Performance - Oracle reported a total revenue of $57.4 billion for the fiscal year 2025, with a net profit of $12.4 billion. The fourth quarter revenue reached $15.9 billion, marking an 11% year-over-year increase [2] - Adobe's Q2 revenue was $5.87 billion, up 11% year-over-year, exceeding analyst expectations. Adjusted EPS was $5.06, a 13% increase, but investor concerns about future competition in AI remain [3] Company Changes - ByteDance's AI Lab head, Li Hang, has officially stepped down, transitioning to a consultant role. This change follows the integration of the AI Lab into the Seed team led by former Google DeepMind VP Wu Yonghui [3][5] - Kingsoft Cloud announced the resignation of CFO He Haijian, effective June 30, 2025, due to personal reasons [6] AI Talent Acquisition - Baidu launched its largest AI talent recruitment initiative, expanding job openings by over 60% compared to last year, focusing on cutting-edge AI fields [6] AI Product Developments - ByteDance's self-developed AI IDE "TRAE" has surpassed 1 million monthly active users, with over 80% of internal engineers utilizing it for development [7] - Volcano Engine released version 1.6 of its Doubao large model, introducing a pricing model based on input length, significantly reducing costs [9] - Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen 3 model achieved over 12.5 million downloads in its first month, with over 130,000 derivative models created [10] Corporate Investments - Amazon plans to invest AUD 20 billion in expanding its data center infrastructure in Australia from 2025 to 2029, marking the largest global tech investment in the country [18] - Meta announced the acquisition of a 49% stake in Scale AI for $14.8 billion to enhance its AI capabilities [22][23] Market Trends - IDC forecasts that the Chinese graph database market will reach RMB 644 million in 2024, growing 17% year-over-year, with major players including Huawei Cloud and Ant Group [24] - The Ministry of Transport emphasized the need for collaboration in technology transfer within the transportation sector to enhance AI applications [27]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the mid-term investment outlook for Chinese private enterprises is improving due to various macro, policy, and micro factors [1] - Goldman Sachs has identified a list of "Ten Giants" among Chinese private companies, which includes Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, BYD, Meituan, NetEase, Midea, Hengrui Medicine, Ctrip, and Anta, covering multiple sub-industries [1] - These "Ten Giants" represent five major investment trends: AI/technology development, self-sufficiency, globalization, service consumption, and improved shareholder returns in China [1] Group 2 - The "Ten Giants" are expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% over the next two years, with an average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16 times, making them more attractive compared to the U.S. "Seven Sisters" [2] - The average trading valuation of the "Ten Giants" is 13.9 times the expected 12-month P/E ratio, which is only a 22% premium over the MSCI China Index, significantly lower than the historical average and the 43% premium of the U.S. tech giants [2] - If Chinese private enterprises achieve a valuation premium similar to that of the U.S., their market concentration could increase from 11% to 13%, adding $313 billion in market value [2] Group 3 - AI technology is expected to drive a 2.5% annual profit growth for Chinese companies over the next decade, with private enterprises accounting for 72% of the defined AI-tech universe [3] - Private enterprises in the technology sector show significantly higher attention to AI compared to their peers, as analyzed from over 1,300 earnings call reports [3] - Companies that have a large customer base and data, and are embracing new AI technologies, are more likely to become long-term winners [3]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has introduced the concept of "Chinese Prominent 10," which includes major private companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and Xiaomi, aiming to identify core assets in the Chinese stock market with long-term dominance potential [1][2] - The total market capitalization of these ten companies is approximately $1.6 trillion, representing 42% of the MSCI China Index, with an expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% in earnings over the next two years [1][2] - The "Chinese Prominent 10" spans various high-growth sectors, including technology, consumer goods, and automotive, reflecting new economic drivers such as AI, self-sufficiency, globalization, and service consumption upgrades [1][2] Group 2 - The selected "Chinese Prominent 10" companies include Tencent ($601 billion), Alibaba ($289 billion), Xiaomi ($146 billion), BYD ($121 billion), Meituan ($102 billion), NetEase ($86 billion), Midea ($78 billion), Hengrui Medicine ($51 billion), Trip.com ($43 billion), and Anta ($35 billion) [2] - These companies collectively account for a daily trading volume of $11 billion, indicating significant market influence and investment appeal [2] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for these companies is 16 times, with a forward price-to-earnings growth (fPEG) ratio of 1.1, making them more attractive compared to the U.S. "Magnificent 7" with a P/E of 28.5 and fPEG of 1.8 [2] Group 3 - Since the low point at the end of 2022, the average increase in stock prices for these ten companies has been 54%, with a year-to-date rise of 24%, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 33 and 8 percentage points, respectively [3] Group 4 - Following a significant market value loss of nearly $4 trillion since late 2020, private enterprises in China are showing signs of strong recovery, with profits and return on equity (ROE) rebounding by 22% and 1.2 percentage points, respectively, since 2022 [4] - Recent policies have increased the focus on private enterprises, boosting confidence among entrepreneurs, as evidenced by the private enterprise symposium in February and the introduction of the first Private Economy Promotion Law in April [4] - The rapid advancements in AI technology, particularly with the emergence of models like DeepSeek-R1, have enhanced market optimism towards technology-driven private enterprises [4] Group 5 - The concentration of the Chinese stock market is relatively low, with the top ten companies accounting for only 17% of the total market capitalization, compared to 33% in the U.S. and 30% in other emerging markets [6] - As leading companies expand their dominance, market concentration is expected to increase in the coming years [6] Group 6 - The investment interest from private enterprises is anticipated to support organic growth and acquisitions, aided by a more transparent and relaxed merger and acquisition framework [7] Group 7 - The average turnover rate of the top ten companies in China over the past decade has been only 12%, indicating strong competitive advantages and market "stickiness" among leading firms [8] - Factors such as capital expenditure, R&D investment, and market concentration are positively correlated with subsequent stock returns and market share representation [8] Group 8 - AI technology is reshaping the competitive landscape, with large private enterprises leveraging their customer base, data accumulation, and investment capabilities to excel in AI development and commercialization [9][10] - Private enterprises are leading the "going global" strategy, with overseas sales increasing from 10% in 2017 to an estimated 17% in 2024 [10] - Companies with strong balance sheets and cash flows are better positioned to capitalize on overseas market opportunities, where profit margins can be significantly higher than in domestic markets [10] Group 9 - Despite ongoing improvements in fundamentals, the valuations of the "Chinese Prominent 10" remain at historical lows, with an average trading valuation of 13.9 times the expected P/E ratio, only 22% higher than the MSCI China Index [11] - If these private enterprises achieve similar valuation premiums as their U.S. counterparts, their market concentration could increase from 11% to 13%, adding approximately $313 billion in market value [11]

Core Viewpoint - JD.com is expanding into the online travel industry, attempting to disrupt the market with aggressive hiring and a "no bundling" approach for ticket sales, but faces significant challenges due to its past failures and the competitive landscape [2][7]. Group 1: JD.com's Strategy and Challenges - JD.com is likely to replicate its "lightning war" strategy from the food delivery sector, involving high salaries and subsidies to attract talent and customers [2][3]. - The online travel market is fundamentally different from food delivery, as travel decisions are less frequent and involve a longer decision-making process, making it harder to sway users with subsidies [3][4]. - The complexity of the travel service chain, including hotel bookings and various travel services, presents significant challenges for JD.com in implementing a subsidy strategy effectively [3][4]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The online travel industry is dominated by established players like Meituan, Ctrip, and Fliggy, creating a strong "Matthew effect" where market share is concentrated among a few [4][5]. - Ctrip has a long-standing relationship with high-star hotels, while Meituan has built a strong advantage in the local market through a comprehensive service model [4][5]. - JD.com faces three major barriers: resource control, user perception, and the need for a robust service network to handle complex travel-related issues [5][6]. Group 3: Technological Integration - The integration of AI in the online travel industry is becoming essential, with competitors like Fliggy and Tongcheng leveraging AI for enhanced user experiences [6][7]. - JD.com has not made significant strides in AI applications within the travel sector, which could hinder its competitiveness as other players advance [6][7]. - The current landscape suggests that merely relying on price competition is insufficient for success in the online travel market, which has evolved beyond a "burning money" strategy [7].

Core Insights - JD's food delivery service has rapidly increased its daily order volume, reaching 2.5 million orders per day within just four months of launch, capturing over 31% of the national market share and approximately 45% in the quality food delivery segment [1][3][9] Company Strategies - JD's food delivery platform offers significant incentives for merchants, including a commission waiver for quality dining merchants until May 1, 2025, and a long-term commission rate capped at 5% [3][9] - The platform has attracted nearly 200,000 restaurant merchants, with over 1.5 million quality dining establishments already onboarded, indicating a strong growth trajectory [3][9] - JD provides comprehensive insurance for full-time delivery riders and offers accident and health insurance for part-time riders, enhancing job security and attracting a large workforce [3][9] Consumer Engagement - JD's food delivery service has implemented substantial consumer subsidies, including a maximum delivery subsidy of 20 yuan and the distribution of 100,000 "billion subsidy vouchers" daily, enhancing user engagement [5][9] - The platform emphasizes quality by allowing only "quality dining restaurants" to join, with a strict approval process that results in a 40% acceptance rate for new merchants [8][9] Competitive Landscape - The food delivery market is becoming increasingly competitive, with major players like Meituan and Alibaba also intensifying their efforts to capture market share [16][24] - Meituan is focusing on quality and reducing marketing dependency, while Alibaba is leveraging its e-commerce resources to enhance its food delivery services [16][24][25] Industry Trends - The boundaries between food delivery and instant retail are blurring, with consumers seeking diverse instant services beyond just food [24][25] - All major platforms face the challenge of integrating food delivery with instant retail to create new growth engines, necessitating innovation and strategic resource allocation [24][25][28]