Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. is a leading player in the non-ferrous metal mining industry, with significant production capabilities in molybdenum, tungsten, cobalt, and copper, and is experiencing fluctuations in stock performance and market interest [1][2][3]. Company Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. is primarily engaged in the mining, selection, smelting, and deep processing of precious metals such as molybdenum, tungsten, and gold, and has a comprehensive integrated industrial chain [2][7]. - The company is one of the top five molybdenum producers globally and the largest tungsten producer, as well as the second-largest cobalt and niobium producer [2][3]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 94.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.83%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 60.07% to 8.67 billion yuan [8]. - The company has distributed a total of 21.56 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 10.58 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [9]. Production and Growth - The company has been expanding its precious metals business, with the revenue and profit contribution from gold and silver products increasing annually [3]. - In 2023, the company expects to produce between 25,000 to 27,000 ounces of gold from its NPM copper-gold mine in Australia, representing a year-on-year increase of 56% to 69% [3]. Market Activity - On October 13, the company's stock rose by 3.11%, with a trading volume of 6.81 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 2.37%, indicating a market interest ranking of 49th in the A-share market [1]. - The stock has seen a net outflow of 2.59 million yuan from major investors today, with a continuous reduction in holdings over the past three days [4][5]. Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the company had 237,500 shareholders, a decrease of 15.95% from the previous period, with the average circulating shares per person remaining at zero [8]. - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and various ETFs, indicating a diversified ownership structure [9]. Technical Analysis - The average trading cost of the stock is 10.76 yuan, with the current price approaching a resistance level of 18.00 yuan, suggesting potential for a breakout or a pullback [6].

Group 1: Rare Metal ETF Performance - The Rare Metal ETF has a turnover rate of 11.57% during trading, with a transaction volume of 359 million yuan, indicating active market trading [3] - The latest scale of the Rare Metal ETF reached 3.08 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception and ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The ETF's share reached 3.67 billion shares, also a new high since inception, and ranks first among comparable funds [3] - Over the past three days, the Rare Metal ETF has seen continuous net inflows, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 358 million yuan, totaling 551 million yuan [3] - As of October 10, the net value of the Rare Metal ETF has increased by 17.31% over the past three years [3] - The highest monthly return since inception is 24.02%, with the longest consecutive monthly increase being five months and a maximum increase of 66.25%, averaging a monthly return of 8.60% [3] Group 2: Cobalt Export Quotas and Market Dynamics - According to CITIC Construction Investment, cobalt export quotas for Congo (Kinshasa) have been finalized, with Luoyang Molybdenum, Glencore, and Eurasian Resources holding the top three shares at 35.9%, 27.3%, and 21.6% respectively [4] - The total quota for 2026 and 2027 is set at 96,600 tons, which includes a basic quota of 87,000 tons allocated to production enterprises and a strategic quota of 9,600 tons [4] - Under the quota system, only about 44% of production can be exported, resulting in a reduction of over 100,000 tons [4] - Based on estimates for 2024, with a supply of 270,000 tons and demand of 230,000 tons, the market is expected to shift from a surplus of about 70,000 tons to a shortage of about 30,000 tons, potentially driving cobalt prices higher [4] Group 3: Rare Earth Export Controls - The Ministry of Commerce has issued four documents to strengthen rare earth export controls, adding five categories of medium and heavy rare earths to the export control list [4] - The controls also extend to the entire industrial chain, including equipment, technology, and raw materials, with additional regulations on overseas military and high-end semiconductor demands [4] - The strategic position of rare earths has been further reinforced through these measures [4] Group 4: Rare Metal Index and Investment Opportunities - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Rare Metal Theme Index include Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, Huayou Cobalt, and others, collectively accounting for 59.91% of the index [4] - Investors can also participate in the rare metal sector through the Rare Metal ETF linked fund (014111) [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights the potential for price increases in copper due to supply disruptions and tariff impacts, suggesting that recent price pullbacks may present good buying opportunities [6] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of precious metals, particularly gold, amid renewed tariff concerns between China and the US, recommending an increased allocation to gold [5] - The report notes significant price increases in cobalt intermediate products, forecasting continued price growth in 2026-2027 due to supply-demand imbalances [7] - The report discusses the tightening supply of rare earths due to new export controls, which may lead to price increases in the domestic market [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 7554.83, with a 52-week high of 7783.14 and a low of 4280.14 [2] Price Movements - Basic metals saw price increases: LME copper rose by 0.76%, aluminum by 2.20%, zinc by 0.95%, and lead by 1.44%. Precious metals also saw gains, with COMEX gold up by 3.80% and silver by 1.44% [21] Inventory Changes - Global visible inventory changes included an increase of 14,579 tons in copper, a decrease of 4,602 tons in aluminum, and an increase of 17,175 tons in lead [30]

在为期八个月的钴出口禁令将于下周到期之际，刚果民主共和国政府公布了今年剩余时间的钴出口配 额。 刚果占到全球钴产量的四分之三左右，这种金属用于电动汽车电池、航空航天和国防工业等。 该监管机构上个月表示，今年剩余时间内，矿商将获准出口略高于18,000吨钴，2026年和2027年每年出 口量最多为96,600吨。未来两年每年许可的出口量还不到该国去年产量的一半。 其声明概述了各家公司在今年剩余时间内可以出口多少钴，并表示12月的配额将自动续期，作为明年的 月度配额。 洛阳钼业获得了2025年剩余时间内略高于三分之一的配额，预计其2026年将能够出口31200吨，这仅占 其刚果矿山去年总产量的27%。去年洛阳钼业的钴产量占全球总产量的40%以上。 尽管受到出口限制，该公司上半年的产量实际上略有增长。各家矿商一直在囤积钴，同时继续出口铜 ——这两种金属在刚果同时开采。 机构研究认为，未来两年钴均有缺口：24年全球钴供给29万吨(刚果金22万吨+印尼2.8万吨)，需求18.5 万吨，过剩10.5万吨；26年全球供给18万吨(刚果金9.66万吨+印尼4万吨)，需求20万吨，短缺2万吨。 1、所有冶炼厂没有拿到配额，华友 ...

这个中非国家已采取严格控制措施以遏制供应过剩。近年来，随着洛阳钼业在该国两座大型矿山的产量 增加，刚果钴产量大增，但价格也大幅下跌。 刚果战略矿产市场监管局周六在发送给媒体的声明中表示，配额将于10月16周六生效，大致根据一家公 司在截至2024年底的三年内的出口情况按比例计算。 该监管机构上个月表示，今年剩余时间内，矿商将获准出口略高于18,000吨钴，2026年和2027年每年出 口量最多为96,600吨。未来两年每年许可的出口量还不到该国去年产量的一半。 智通财经APP获悉，在为期八个月的钴出口禁令将于下周到期之际，刚果民主共和国政府公布了今年剩 余时间的钴出口配额。 刚果占到全球钴产量的四分之三左右，这种金属用于电动汽车电池、航空航天和国防工业等。 机构研究认为，未来两年钴均有缺口：24年全球钴供给29万吨(刚果金22万吨+印尼2.8万吨)，需求18.5 万吨，过剩10.5万吨；26年全球供给18万吨(刚果金9.66万吨+印尼4万吨)，需求20万吨，短缺2万吨。 1、所有冶炼厂没有拿到配额，华友和盛屯也是矿端拿到了配额，其他国内冶炼厂均没有拿到配额； 2、现货原材料会极度紧张，未来洛钼只能拿配额来保供 ...

Group 1: Cobalt Export Quota in Congo - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has announced a cobalt export quota, effective from October 16, aimed at strengthening resource sovereignty and signaling a shift from a surplus to a shortage in the cobalt market, leading to a systematic increase in price levels [1] - The DRC's Strategic Mineral Market Regulatory Authority stated that miners will be allowed to export slightly over 18,000 tons of cobalt for the remainder of this year, with annual export limits of 96,600 tons for 2026 and 2027, which is less than half of last year's production [1] - The quota distribution includes major companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, which received a quota of 31,200 tons (32.3%), exceeding some prior expectations [1] Group 2: Future Cobalt Supply and Demand - Institutions predict a cobalt supply gap in the next two years, with global supply expected to be 290,000 tons in 2024 (DRC 220,000 tons + Indonesia 28,000 tons) against a demand of 185,000 tons, resulting in a surplus of 105,000 tons; by 2026, supply is projected to drop to 180,000 tons (DRC 96,600 tons + Indonesia 40,000 tons) while demand will rise to 200,000 tons, leading to a shortfall of 20,000 tons [2] Group 3: Market Trends and Stock Performance - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 6.1%, with major U.S. stock indices also experiencing significant declines, indicating a bearish trend in the market [3] - Notable declines were observed in large tech stocks, with companies like Broadcom and Tesla dropping nearly 6% and 5.06% respectively, reflecting broader market challenges [3] Group 4: Rare Earth Prices - Baotou Steel and Northern Rare Earth announced an increase in rare earth concentrate prices for Q4 2025, with a projected 37.13% increase compared to Q3 [7] Group 5: Company Announcements - China Energy Construction signed three new energy EPC contracts worth approximately 27.45 billion USD (about 195.54 billion RMB) with Saudi companies [11] - Smoore International reported a record high quarterly revenue of approximately 4.1968 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of about 27.2% [12] - Kelun-Biotech's TROP2ADC drug received approval for a new indication, expanding its market potential in treating specific lung cancer cases [13] - Zhaojin Mining reported a net profit of approximately 2.117 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 140.43% [14]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) government has issued conditions for obtaining and distributing cobalt export quotas, effective from October 16, 2025 [1][2] - The DRC is expected to contribute 76% of global cobalt production in 2024, with a projected reduction in export supply over the next two years [10][11] - The report highlights potential supply shortages in the cobalt market due to various companies facing operational challenges [8][10] Summary by Sections Export Quota Details - The basic export quotas for cobalt in 2025 are set at 3,625 tons for October, and 7,250 tons for both November and December [2] - Quotas are allocated based on historical export volumes from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2024, with specific exclusions for certain companies [2][3] Company-Specific Quotas - Key companies and their basic export quotas for Q4 2025 include: - Luoyang Molybdenum: 6,650 tons - Glencore: 3,925 tons - Eurasian Resources: 2,125 tons - Gecamines: 1,475 tons [6][16] - The 2026 quotas for these companies are projected to be significantly higher, indicating a potential increase in production capacity [7] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report anticipates a supply gap of approximately 25,500 tons in 2027, driven by increasing global demand for cobalt, particularly in electric vehicles [12][13] - The DRC's export supply is expected to decrease significantly, with a projected reduction of 12,340 tons over the next two years [11][12] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as: - Luoyang Molybdenum, which will hold a significant share of the DRC's export quotas - Huayou Cobalt, with substantial production capacity in Indonesia - Other companies like Likin Resources and Greeenmei, which are expanding their nickel and cobalt production capabilities [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting the strengthening of gold's safe-haven attributes and further management of the rare earth industry [1]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the impact of trade tariff concerns on gold's safe-haven demand, while silver prices are accelerating due to spot market shortages and warehouse squeezes [7]. - The rare earth industry is seeing enhanced management policies, ensuring the strategic security of China's rare earth industry [7]. - The cobalt market is expected to experience upward price pressure due to the announced export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [7]. Industry Overview - **Industrial Metals**: The report notes that trade tariff concerns are increasing gold's safe-haven demand, with silver prices rising due to market shortages. The SPDR Gold ETF saw a decrease in holdings by 2.3 tons to 1013.44 tons, while iShares Silver ETF increased by 35.28 tons to 15443.76 tons [7]. - **Rare Earths**: Recent announcements from the Ministry of Commerce regarding export controls on rare earth materials are expected to enhance the management of the industry, ensuring strategic security [7]. - **Cobalt**: The Democratic Republic of Congo's export quota policy is likely to support cobalt prices, with the average price of electrolytic cobalt rising by 4.8% to 349,500 CNY/ton [9]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the precious metals sector such as Zhongjin Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Shandong Gold, as well as silver companies like Xingye Silver and Shengda Resources [2]. - For cobalt, companies such as Huayou Cobalt, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Tengyuan Cobalt are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of rising cobalt prices [10].

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. has experienced significant stock price fluctuations, driven primarily by rising copper prices, with a notable increase of 24% in stock price over a few trading days, reaching a historical high of 18 yuan per share [2][4][6]. Company Performance - Since April 9, 2023, Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price has surged by 218%, increasing its market capitalization from 121 billion yuan to a peak of 384 billion yuan, and maintaining a market cap of 357.7 billion yuan as of October 10, 2023 [2][4]. - The company reported a net profit of 8.671 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 60.07% [2][11]. Market Dynamics - The stock price of Luoyang Molybdenum is closely linked to copper prices, which have risen from 9,154 USD/ton to 10,867 USD/ton since April 11, 2023, marking an increase of 18.7% [8]. - The company has strategically positioned itself in the copper and cobalt markets, capitalizing on the growing demand driven by the global energy transition [3][10]. Strategic Initiatives - Luoyang Molybdenum has focused on acquiring high-quality mining resources, including significant stakes in world-class mines, which has established a long-term cost advantage [3][9]. - The company has adopted a "mining + trading" dual-driven model to maximize the value of its mining industry chain [6][10]. Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite strong performance, Luoyang Molybdenum faces challenges related to its dependence on cyclical industries and market volatility, particularly in the context of global supply chain uncertainties [2][4]. - The company is exploring new growth paths to reduce reliance on cyclical profits and ensure sustainable growth [2][10].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a decline in the non-ferrous metal sector, with significant drops in share prices of various companies [1] Company Summaries - Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) has seen a decrease of 10.44%, currently trading at 45.72 HKD [1] - China Nonferrous Mining (01258.HK) has dropped by 9.72%, with shares priced at 14.77 HKD [1] - Shandong Gold (01787.HK) is down 7.18%, trading at 39.04 HKD [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993.HK) has fallen by 6.66%, currently at 16.4 HKD [1] - Jiangxi Copper (00358.HK) has decreased by 4.36%, with shares at 36.42 HKD [1]