（责任编辑：贺翀 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 据中信建投消息，Oracle发布财报显示，其云订单暴涨至4550亿美元，较去年同期翻逾四倍。AI客 户对算力基础设施的需求显著增长，推动Oracle云业务和阿里云收入双双上升。中信建投建议关注算力 基础设施产业链，尤其是国内外AI算力市场的强劲需求。此外，中国移动启动空芯光缆招标，表明国 内互联网公司正加速试用新型光缆技术，以满足AI需求。中美将在西班牙讨论经贸问题，商务部对美 芯片反倾销调查也引发关注。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that a new round of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is imminent, which will benefit the U.S. real estate chain. A reduction in mortgage rates by 150-200 basis points historically leads to significant market movements, with beneficiary stocks typically seeing early valuation increases. The introduction of the "Big and Beautiful" plan has significantly widened the U.S. fiscal gap, creating potential for interest rate cuts. Given the current high-interest environment, the U.S. real estate market is at a critical low point, and rate cuts are expected to invigorate market activity, suggesting investment opportunities in home appliance and power tool export companies during this cycle [1]. Group 1 - The transmission of interest rates to real estate is precise, indicating a systematic reversal for the U.S. real estate chain. The strong cyclicality of the U.S. home appliance and tool industries is closely tied to changes in the real estate cycle, with revenue fluctuations of leading companies in these sectors closely mirroring trends in U.S. home sales. The U.S. real estate market is currently at a historical low, and demand for tools is expected to rise as the real estate cycle enters a recovery phase [2]. - The potential for stock price increases in the post-cycle sector is significant. Historical analysis of major interest rate cut cycles since the 21st century shows that a 150-200 basis point reduction in mortgage rates can lead to a doubling of stock prices for post-cycle companies. The predictability of interest rate policies has improved since the introduction of the dot plot by the FOMC in 2012, shortening the lag time for stock prices to respond to Fed rate cuts [3]. - The current high level of the federal funds rate is expected to decline. The "Big and Beautiful" plan will increase debt levels, further raising interest pressure. To mitigate risks from high interest payments and address rising unemployment, significant rate cuts are seen as a necessary policy choice for the White House. The weak job market is shifting the Fed's focus from controlling inflation to preventing recession, with expectations for rate cuts increasing significantly for September [4]. Group 2 - The U.S. real estate market is currently at its lowest transaction levels in nearly 20 years, with strong demand potential. However, the "rate lock" effect has suppressed activity for 2-3 years. The initiation of rate cuts, combined with home purchases by millennials, is expected to effectively activate the U.S. real estate market. Concerns about the effectiveness of moderate rate cuts in a high-interest environment are addressed by referencing recovery experiences from the 1980s, where moderate cuts in a high-rate environment also significantly boosted the real estate chain [5]. - With the gradual clarification of rate cut expectations, U.S. mortgage rates are likely to decrease, leading to a gradual recovery in the U.S. real estate market in the first half of 2026. This recovery is expected to further enhance the economic outlook for the home appliance and tool industries. Regarding tariffs, the pressure on Southeast Asian production capacities is not expected to exceed that of domestic capacities from 2024, making the overall impact manageable [6].

资料显示，西安中熔电气股份有限公司位于陕西省西安市高新区锦业二路97号中熔电气产业基地，成立 日期2007年4月20日，上市日期2021年7月15日，公司主营业务涉及熔断器及相关配件的研发、生产和销 售。主营业务收入构成为：电力熔断器及配件86.93%，激励熔断器12.77%，电子类熔断器0.30%。 截至发稿，艾翀累计任职时间7年327天，现任基金资产总规模1.62亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 85.76%， 任职期间最差基金回报-23.39%。 杨志武累计任职时间2年287天，现任基金资产总规模3.14亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报41.68%， 任职 期间最差基金回报1.77%。 9月15日，中熔电气涨5.27%，截至发稿，报108.53元/股，成交1.81亿元，换手率2.46%，总市值106.71 亿元。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，中信建投基金旗下1只基金重仓中熔电气。中信建投致远混合A（019322）二季度持有股数 1.63万股，占基金净值比例为2.25%，位居第九大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约8.83万元。 中信建投致远混合A（019322）成立日期2024年1月30日，最新规模421.57万 ...

数据显示，中信建投基金旗下1只基金重仓潍柴重机。中信建投低碳成长混合A（013851）二季度持有 股数106.23万股，占基金净值比例为6.8%，位居第三大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮亏损失约291.07万 元。 中信建投低碳成长混合A（013851）成立日期2021年12月13日，最新规模2.07亿。今年以来收益 7.76%，同类排名6226/8246；近一年收益9.56%，同类排名7054/8054；成立以来亏损44.98%。 中信建投低碳成长混合A（013851）基金经理为周紫光。 截至发稿，周紫光累计任职时间8年114天，现任基金资产总规模10.34亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 31.92%， 任职期间最差基金回报-45.8%。 责任编辑：小浪快报 9月15日，潍柴重机跌5.37%，截至发稿，报48.28元/股，成交2.17亿元，换手率2.77%，总市值159.96亿 元。 资料显示，潍柴重机股份有限公司位于山东省潍坊滨海经济技术开发区富海大街17号，成立日期1993年 6月28日，上市日期1998年4月2日，公司主营业务涉及公司主要开发、制造和销售船舶动力和发电设备 市场用30-12000马力的发动机及动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors with growth potential as inflation improves, suggesting that fundamental factors may regain attention as market valuations stabilize and enter a slow bull phase [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Recent months have seen investors becoming less attentive to fundamental factors, but this may change as market valuations have completed their correction [1]. - The slow bull market requires both leading sectors and overall fundamental support, with a need to reverse deflationary trends to attract foreign investment in Chinese assets [1]. Group 2: Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch include AI, pig farming, new energy, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and non-bank financials [1]. - The ongoing market consolidation phase necessitates attention to sector rotation between high and low performers [1].

9月15日，中信建投（601066）研报认为，锂电板块已兑现2025年市场需求超预期的逻辑，当前板块核 心矛盾转向2026年需求预期能否在20%增速基础上进一步上修。后续关注三大信号：一是四季度储能招 标情况，其将映射2026年装机数据；二是11月底电池企业招标对应2026年的要货预期，尽管当前部分电 池企业已经给出2026年指引将大幅超市场预期，但置信度仍被质疑，后续以价为基础的谈量具备可信 度；三是2026年汽车以旧换新等政策延续情况以及锂电排产信息。当前尽管有较大预期差，但经济性带 动下的储能超预期或将在明年加速，关注度提升的情况下第二波行情随时可能出现。 ...

台积电是全球最大的先进芯片生产商，也是英伟达的芯片代工制造商和重要战略合作伙伴，台积电销售 额的激增是AI芯片需求仍然强劲的有力证据。当前AI技术正加快融入千行百业，超大规模AI模型和海 量数据对算力的需求也持续攀升。新应用场景加速发展进一步带动算力需求爆发，AI芯片市场有望迎 接爆发式增长。半导体行业是新一轮科技革命中各国的兵家必争之地，半导体设备作为半导体行业的关 键支撑环节是科技战中的重中之重。中美科技战愈演愈烈，有望催化国产替代加速，国产化率较低的环 节仍有较大替代空间。 ...

人民财讯9月15日电，中信建投（601066）研报称，储能方面，继续重点推荐储能板块。近期山东机制 电价折价明显，业主自发配储意愿提升；宁夏继甘肃之后推出容量电价，有助于业主投资积极性。锂电 方面，锂电板块已经兑现2025年市场需求超预期，当前核心矛盾为2026年需求预期是否继续上修，后续 持续关注储能招标及装机数据、2026年指引置信度、2026年车以旧换新等政策延续情况以及锂电排产信 息等。持续看多锂电、储能。氢能方面，北美电力需求缺口带来SOFC(固体氧化物燃料电池)的产业趋 势仍在被验证并加强，持续看好SOFC降本带来度电成本优势；绿醇长期应用趋势是船运脱碳的必然结 果，IMO规则正在加快平价进度、提升行业空间。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent surge in aluminum prices is driven by supply-side tensions, as indicated by significant withdrawal requests from LME warehouses, leading to a price breakout above 21,000 yuan per ton [1][3] - The demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to improve due to a recovering Chinese economy and the growth in the new energy sector, with a projected consumption growth of 2.6% for the year [2][3] - The global electrolytic aluminum supply is anticipated to face a shortfall in 2026 and 2027, with a projected gap of approximately 25,000 tons and 33,000 tons respectively, despite an increase in production [4][5] Group 2 - The price of electrolytic aluminum has been trading as a dividend asset, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio generally between 8 and 10 times, and is expected to maintain a profit margin of 4,000 to 5,500 yuan per ton [5] - The global electrolytic aluminum production is expected to grow at rates of 2.15% and 1.72% in 2026 and 2027, respectively, with significant contributions from new projects in Indonesia and Vietnam [4] - The current market conditions, including a low inventory level and ample liquidity due to the Fed's interest rate cuts, provide upward price elasticity for aluminum [2][5]

Core Insights - The public fund sales retention scale among the top 100 fund distribution institutions showed a steady growth trend in the first half of 2025, with significant performance differentiation among different types of funds and institutions [1][3][17] Group 1: Fund Performance - As of the end of the first half of 2025, the total retention scale of equity funds among the top 100 fund distribution institutions reached 51,374 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.89% [1][3] - The retention scale of non-monetary market funds was 101,993 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.95% [1][3] - The bond and other funds reached 50,619 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.05% [1][3] - Stock index funds performed the best, with a total retention scale of 19,522 billion yuan and a quarter-on-quarter growth rate of 14.57%, becoming the core driver of public fund distribution growth [1][3] Group 2: Institutional Performance - Among the top 100 institutions, brokerage firms stood out with 57 firms listed, accounting for nearly half of the rankings [4][6] - The quarter-on-quarter growth rates for non-monetary funds, equity funds, and stock index funds for brokerage firms were 9.43%, 6.48%, and 9.94%, respectively [4][6] - Brokerage firms dominated the stock index fund market, holding over 55% market share, showcasing their absolute advantage [4][6] Group 3: Regulatory Impact - The revised "Securities Company Classification Evaluation Regulations" introduced on August 27, 2025, added specific indicators for fund advisory and equity fund sales retention scale, guiding brokerages to focus on long-term asset appreciation rather than just initial offerings [2][17] - The new mechanism is expected to shift industry resources towards equity fund sales, accelerating the optimization of wealth management business structures [2][17] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The competition among leading brokerages remains intense, with notable ranking changes; Guotai Junan and other firms have shown significant improvements in their rankings [7][10] - The differentiation in fund distribution strategies among brokerages reflects their varying preferences and market positioning [7][8] - The retention scale of equity funds for leading brokerages like CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities remains robust, with significant absolute values [10][14]