Group 1 - The copper-aluminum price ratio reached 4.49 on December 29, 2025, marking a new high since 2003, with potential acceleration in aluminum replacing copper in certain sectors [2][3] - In the wire and cable industry, aluminum poses a significant substitution threat to copper due to its price advantage and favorable physical properties [2] - New standards related to aluminum heat exchangers are being developed, indicating a shift towards aluminum in HVAC applications [2] Group 2 - There are disruptions in overseas electrolytic aluminum supply, with limited short-term capacity expansion due to issues like power supply agreements and infrastructure constraints [3] - A production line in Iceland faced a temporary shutdown, reducing its capacity significantly, and another facility in Mozambique is expected to enter maintenance due to unresolved power supply agreements [3] - The aluminum consumption structure is shifting, with increased demand from transportation and power sectors, and new growth points emerging from data centers and energy storage [4] Group 3 - Domestic and international policy expectations are solidifying the bottom for alumina prices, with the Chinese government emphasizing management and optimization in resource-intensive industries [5] - China's reliance on imported bauxite is increasing, with Guinea being the largest supplier, and potential market interventions could impact alumina pricing [5] - The forecast for domestic aluminum consumption in 2026 is 57.37 million tons, reflecting a growth rate of over 1.7% year-on-year [4] Group 4 - Companies to watch include Zhongfu Industrial, Yun Aluminum, and Shenhuo, which are expected to benefit from expanding aluminum profits [6] - China Aluminum and Nanshan Aluminum are highlighted for their potential rebound in alumina prices and high dividend expectations [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the Chinese government is promoting "anti-involution" policies and stable growth initiatives, which are expected to lead to the elimination of outdated production capacity in the petrochemical industry and foster healthy industry development [1][2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) plans to implement a stable growth work plan for the petrochemical industry from 2025 to 2026, targeting an average annual growth of over 5% in the industry's added value [2][3] - The focus will be on structural adjustments, optimizing supply, and eliminating outdated production capacity in key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals [2][3] Group 2 - Strict control policies on high-energy-consuming industries such as calcium carbide and caustic soda have been in place since 2016, aiming to limit new production capacity and promote energy-saving and pollution-reduction upgrades [3] - The report indicates that the calcium carbide industry is expected to see an increase in concentration as outdated capacity is eliminated, which will improve overall industry conditions [4] - The liquid alkali industry is currently at a low point, with a projected single-ton gross profit of 744 yuan by the end of 2025, indicating a need for supply-side improvements to drive industry recovery [5] Group 3 - The PVC market is closely tied to the real estate and infrastructure sectors, with a projected apparent consumption of approximately 1,866 million tons in 2025, reflecting a 7.1% decline from 2020 [6][7] - The PVC industry is characterized by low concentration, with the top six companies holding only 26% of the total production capacity, which is expected to change as environmental policies tighten and outdated capacities are phased out [7] - Investment opportunities are identified in various sectors, including the calcium carbide-chloralkali-PVC industry chain and nitrogen fertilizer industry, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment [8]

Core Viewpoint - The animation film "Nezha 2" significantly boosted the box office, contributing over 15 billion in revenue, overshadowing the lackluster performance of mid-tier content and overall weak demand in the film market [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The total box office for the 2025 New Year period reached 5.345 billion, a 75.25% increase year-on-year, marking a new high for the New Year box office in the past five years [1] - The total box office for 2025 surpassed 50 billion, reaching 51.832 billion, with the share of box office from top films exceeding 50%, indicating a significant concentration in the market [2][3] - The average ticket price has seen a slight decline for two consecutive years, while the attendance rate for 2025 rose slightly to 7.1%, still below 2019 levels, indicating cautious audience behavior [2][3] Group 2: Film Industry Trends - The number of films registered and new releases in 2025 saw a slight decline, with 2,472 films registered and only 464 new releases, reflecting a decrease in the supply of highly anticipated films [2] - Animation films emerged as a core driver of market growth, with total box office revenue from animation films exceeding 24.5 billion, nearly half of the total box office [3] - The film investment landscape is shifting, with smaller cinemas being phased out and market share consolidating among leading film investment companies, which are diversifying into "non-ticket economy" models [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The film market is expected to transition from reliance on single films to a more diversified approach with multiple strong films contributing to recovery, despite high baseline pressure from "Nezha 2" in early 2026 [1] - The 2026 Spring Festival film lineup is gaining attention, with several anticipated films set to compete, although overall excitement may not match the previous year [4]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 光大證券股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年1月6日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 601788 | 說明 | | A股(上海證券交易所) | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 3,906,698,839 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 3,906,698,839 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 3,906,698,839 | RMB | | | 1 RMB | | 3,906,698, ...

南方财经1月6日电，据企业预警通，光大证券股份有限公司公告披露，2025年12月31日，公司收到江苏 省南京市中级人民法院民事判决书，金通灵公司需赔偿叶小明等43269名投资者投资损失共计7.748亿 元，并承担相关费用。对公司等其他25名被告的诉讼请求将继续审理，并另行制作裁判文书。截至公告 日，公司及控股子公司无其他应披露而未披露的重大诉讼、仲裁事项。该案件对公司本期或期后利润影 响尚不确定，但目前公司经营正常，偿债能力未受重大不利影响。 ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 光大證券股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年1月6日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 601788 | 說明 | | A股(上海證券交易所) | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 3,906,698,839 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 3,906,698,839 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 3,906,698,839 | RMB | | | 1 RMB | | 3,906,698, ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Prudent control of the scale of bond net - buying is the most appropriate approach at the initial stage of restarting bond purchases to avoid the superposition and resonance of the two channels affecting bond yields [1][3] - The ideal state is that investors treat information on treasury bond trading operations like daily open - market reverse repurchase operations, and the central bank can flexibly use open - market treasury bond trading tools to inject base money and adjust bank - system liquidity without overly affecting bond yields [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Why did the central bank only purchase 50 billion yuan of treasury bonds? - On January 5, 2026, the People's Bank of China announced the liquidity injection situation of the central bank's various tools in December 2025, showing a net liquidity injection of 50 billion yuan through open - market treasury bond trading tools. Compared with the monthly net purchases of 100 - 300 billion yuan from August to December 2024, the monthly net purchases of 20 - 50 billion yuan since the restart of treasury bond trading in October 2025 are relatively small. Prudent control of the purchase scale is appropriate in the initial months after restarting bond purchases [1] Impact of open - market treasury bond trading on bond yields - Open - market treasury bond trading affects bond yields through two channels. The asset - liability - sheet channel is that the central bank's trading of treasury bonds changes market supply - and - demand relations, and the expected channel is that investors trade on the information of the central bank's treasury bond trading, increasing the volatility of bond yields. The decline in yields largely comes from the expected channel [2] Measures to suppress the impact of the expected channel - The way to suppress the second channel is to dilute investors' attention to the central bank's bond purchases and weaken the relationship between the central bank's bond purchases and yields. At the beginning of restarting bond purchases, it is necessary to control the scale of bond net purchases to avoid the superposition of the two channels. When the market no longer overly focuses on the central bank's bond - purchase scale, the central bank can gradually increase the scale [3]

2、二级市场表现 价格走势：2025年12月1日-2025年12月31日（以下简称"本月"），我国已上市公募REITs的二级市场价格 整体延续上月的波动下行趋势：中证REITs（收盘）和中证REITs全收益指数分别收于778.6和1009.84，本 月回报率分别为-3.77%和-2.93%。与其他主流大类资产相比，回报率由高至低排序分别为：A股>可转债> 黄金>纯债>美股>REITs>原油。 从项目属性来看，产权类REITs和特许经营权类REITs的二级市场价格均有所下跌，其中，特许经营权类 REITs的跌幅更大。从底层资产类型来看，本月新型基础设施类REITs涨幅最大。本月，回报率表现较好 的底层资产类别为新型基础设施类和保障房类。从单只REIT层面来看，有23只REITs上涨，有55只REITs 下跌。涨跌幅方面，涨幅排名前三的分别是华泰南京建邺REIT、中金重庆两江REIT和华夏基金华润有巢 REIT。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 ...

Core Viewpoint - Demar Technology (688360.SH) received an administrative regulatory measure decision from the Zhejiang Securities Regulatory Bureau, indicating violations related to the use of raised funds and inaccurate information disclosure [1][2][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Violations - From July 30 to August 5, 2020, Demar Technology used raised funds to pay unrelated land fees amounting to 5.8 million yuan [1]. - Between August 31, 2020, and September 27, 2023, the company used raised funds to cover expenses for a non-project "landscape restaurant" totaling 3.9451 million yuan [1]. - The company disclosed inaccuracies in its semi-annual and annual reports regarding the management and use of raised funds from March 2021 to August 2025 [1]. Group 2: Accountability of Company Personnel - The chairman and general manager, Zhuo Xu, the then financial officer, Chen Xueqiang, the then board secretary, Guo Aihua, and the current financial director and board secretary, Huang Hai, failed to ensure proper use of raised funds and fulfill information disclosure obligations [2]. - The actions of these individuals violated multiple regulations outlined in the Securities Regulatory Guidelines and Information Disclosure Management Measures [2]. Group 3: Regulatory Measures and Company Response - The Zhejiang Securities Regulatory Bureau decided to issue warning letters to the company and the aforementioned individuals, which will be recorded in the securities market integrity archives [3]. - Demar Technology expressed its commitment to addressing the issues raised in the decision and will submit a written rectification report to the Zhejiang Securities Regulatory Bureau within the specified timeframe [3]. - The company aims to enhance its compliance with securities laws and improve the quality of information disclosure to protect the interests of shareholders and promote stable, high-quality development [3]. Group 4: Company Financial Information - Demar Technology was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board on June 2, 2020, issuing 21,419,150 shares at a price of 25.12 yuan per share [4]. - The total amount raised from the initial public offering was 538.049 million yuan, with a net amount of 460.9362 million yuan, exceeding the original fundraising target by 82.9551 million yuan [4]. - The total issuance costs for the IPO were 77.1128 million yuan, with Everbright Securities receiving 55.5799 million yuan in underwriting and sponsorship fees [4].

光期研究 见微知著 股指期货策略月报 202 6 年 1 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 股指期货："跨年行情"可能缺席 1、盘面逻辑存在背离 我们认为，1月指数继续在中枢内震荡的概率较高，指数级别冲破中枢向上的条件可能还未成熟。春季躁动行情需要一定的条 件，对小盘指数而言，需要政策边际放宽流动性；对大盘而言，需要通胀预期的持续改善。当下上述条件并不突出。从盘面来看， 三组逻辑背离可能支撑上述观点：（1）价格持续上涨但成交量未明显增加；（2）融资余额上涨但指数隐含波动率回落；（3） A500ETF大幅申购但IF净空头增加。上述逻辑背离表明市场可能并未对指数向上突破做好准备，12月下旬的指数走强更多是题材轮 动引发的短期资金热情。 2、当前基本面环境与历史上"跨年行情"存在差异 历史上1月指数涨跌幅的绝对值水平确实高于其他月份，存在明显的"跨年行情"。我们以2017年至2025年的连续9年作为样本。 中证1000在其中7年的1月录得负增长，其中2022年和2024年均由流动性收窄引发较大跌幅。仅2020年1月和2 ...