消费、投资共同发力扩内需，消费升级推动建材高品质转型 消费端，中央经济工作会议提到，2026年要"深入实施提振消费专项行动，清理消费领域不合理限制措 施"，与十五五规划建议稿中提到的"清理汽车、住房等消费不合理"相呼应，预计26年各地区居民住房 限购政策将逐步放开，家装市场回暖预期增强，有望带动消费建材需求恢复。投资端，中央经济工作会 议提到"推动投资止跌回稳，优化实施'两重'项目"，与十五五规划建议稿对"扩大有效投资"的描述相契 合，水泥等传统建材需求与基建投资高度相关，"两重"项目建设将是缓解地产新开工疲软的主要对冲力 量，预计明年"两重"项目将托底传统建材市场需求。与此同时，近年我国居民消费水平不断提高，中央 经济工作会议提到"高质量推进城市更新"及"有序推动'好房子'建设"，在地产进入存量时代背景下，城 市更新及高品质建设成为建材市场重要抓手，一方面，随着明年城市更新工作的推进与落地，城市基础 设施建设及城市综合管廊建设等相关的建材产品需求有望加速释放；另一方面，消费升级趋势下，具备 品牌属性及品质优势的龙头企业有望受益。 深化推进"反内卷"，传统建材供需格局预期向好 中央经济工作会议提到"制定全国统 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to continue its volatile structure as the year-end approaches, with a focus on policy dividends and economic trends for the upcoming year [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Main Line 1: The unprecedented global changes are accelerating, shifting the domestic economic logic towards new productive forces, with key areas of interest including artificial intelligence, embodied intelligence, new energy, controllable nuclear fusion, quantum technology, and aerospace as highlighted in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - Main Line 2: The gradual implementation of anti-involution policies, combined with an optimized supply-demand structure and expectations of price recovery, indicates a clear path for profit recovery in the manufacturing and resource sectors [1] - Auxiliary Line 1: Under the guidance of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, the consumer sector is entering a favorable window for investment [1] - Auxiliary Line 2: The trend of going global is expected to further enhance corporate profit margins [1]

中信证券：内外兼顾，寻求交集 从此次中央经济工作会议内容来看，做大内循环仍是重心，定位和去年相似。但对于股票市场而言，内需品种 和外需品种的预期和定价与去年存在巨大差异：去年底，投资者对外需普遍谨慎，对内需充满期待，但最终外 需的表现大超预期；今年是重仓布局外需敞口品种，预期相对充分，但对内需品种欠缺信心。实际上，明年外 需继续超预期的难度在加大，但内需可期待的因素在增多。 从这些角度来看，海外敞口品种业绩兑现力强，但估值继续提升难度大；内需敞口品种景气度一般，但一旦超 预期修复，估值弹性不小。配置上要寻求交集，即海外敞口为基底、内需积极变化也会产生催化的品种。 国泰海通：当下是布局春季行情的重要窗口 对于后市，我们比市场共识更乐观：部分投资者以政策表述从"超常规"到"跨周期"解读政策不积极，但这存在 谬误，2025年超常规是相较于2024年尾部风险暴露而言。面向2026年，中央经济工作会议明确"巩固拓展经济 稳中向好势头"，并要求财政政策"更加积极"与"内需主导"，首次提出"推动投资止跌回稳"，并时隔十年重提 房地产"去库存"；中财办副主任韩文秀表示将根据形势变化出台实施增量政策，继续实施"国补"与靠前实 ...

【大河财立方消息】2025年A股已进入收官倒计时，步入年末，市场正处于全年业绩兑现与2026年开局 衔接的关键节点。来年如何布局？跨年行情怎么看？大河财立方记者梳理了6家券商最新解读。 中信建投：跨年行情蓄势待发 中信建投分析师夏凡捷、何盛发表研报认为，从9月初至12月初，AH两地市场经历了较长时间的调整， 投资者情绪趋于谨慎，而近期，多项关键事件与数据相继公布，整体基调符合或略好于市场预期。 中信建投认为，牛市底层逻辑仍在，主要由结构性行情和资本市场改革政策推动。目前市场已经基本完 成调整，叠加基金排名基本落地，跨年有望迎来新一波行情。 中期行业配置方面，中信建投建议重点关注具有一定景气催化的有色金属和AI算力，主题上以商业航 天为主，可控核聚变和人形机器人为辅；港股也具有投资机会，潜在热点板块主要有互联网巨头、创新 药。重点关注：有色、商业航天、AI、人形机器人、可控核聚变、创新药、非银金融等。 中信证券：内外兼顾，寻求交集 中信证券裘翔、刘春彤等人发表研报认为，从此次中央经济工作会议内容来看，做大内循环仍是重心， 定位和去年相似。 研报中提到，但对于股票市场而言，内需品种和外需品种的预期和定价与去年存在 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a fluctuating and differentiated trend from December 8 to December 12, with the overall index rising by 0.26% [1][31] - The North Star 50 and ChiNext indices led the gains, increasing by 2.79% and 2.74% respectively, while the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 saw slight declines [1][31] - Small-cap stocks outperformed, with the CSI 1000 index rising by 0.39%, compared to a decline of 0.08% for the CSI 300 [1][31] - Among sectors, telecommunications, defense, and electronics were the top gainers, with increases of 6.27%, 2.80%, and 2.63% respectively, while coal, oil and petrochemicals, and steel faced significant declines [1][31][39] Fund Flow - The trading activity in the A-share market showed signs of recovery, with an average daily turnover of 19,530 billion yuan, up by 2,568.66 billion yuan from the previous week [2][32] - Northbound capital saw an average daily turnover of 2,324.71 billion yuan, an increase of 397.27 billion yuan compared to the previous week [2][32] - The total margin trading balance reached 25,079.69 billion yuan, up by 263.01 billion yuan from the previous week [2][32] - A total of 23 new funds were established this week, with a total issuance of 18.218 billion units, of which equity funds accounted for 13, with an issuance of 6.690 billion units, a decrease of 4.526 billion units from the previous week [2][32][47] Valuation Changes - As of December 12, the PE (TTM) ratio for the overall A-share index decreased by 0.24% to 21.73 times, placing it at the 85.10 percentile since 2010 [2][23] - The PB (LF) ratio fell by 0.1% to 1.79 times, situated at the 47.62 percentile since 2010 [2][23] - The bond yield spread for the A-shares was 2.7613%, near the three-year rolling average of 3.3405% and at the 52.16 percentile since 2010 [2][23][51] Investment Outlook - Recent significant events include the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations, although internal divisions have widened [3][33] - The Central Political Bureau and Central Economic Work Conference held this week provided direction for economic work in 2026, emphasizing "seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency" [3][33] - The focus on domestic demand as a primary task reflects the urgent need to address "insufficient effective demand," highlighting the importance of technological innovation under the drive for innovation [3][33] - The capital market's role is expected to be further strengthened, with a clear commitment to "continuously deepen the comprehensive reform of capital market investment and financing" [3][33] Configuration Opportunities - Main Line 1: The unprecedented global changes are accelerating, with a shift in domestic economic logic towards new productive forces, highlighting key areas such as artificial intelligence, embodied intelligence, new energy, controllable nuclear fusion, quantum technology, and aerospace [4][34] - Main Line 2: The moderate advancement of anti-involution policies, combined with supply-demand structure optimization and price recovery expectations, indicates a clear path for profit recovery in manufacturing and resource sectors [4][34] - Auxiliary Line 1: The policy direction to expand domestic demand presents a window for investment in the consumer sector [4][34] - Auxiliary Line 2: The trend of going global is expected to further open up profit space for enterprises [4][34]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that capital strength has become a key factor influencing the operations and development of securities firms, leading them to actively issue bonds to supplement capital and enhance competitiveness in a favorable market environment [1][2]. Group 2 - Securities firms have significantly increased their bond issuance this year, with a total of 925 bonds issued, amounting to 1.8 trillion yuan, representing a 44.79% increase compared to the same period last year [2]. - The issuance includes 502 corporate bonds totaling 1.08 trillion yuan, 311 short-term financing bonds amounting to 540.87 billion yuan, and 112 subordinated bonds totaling 181.29 billion yuan [2]. - Factors driving this increase include a strong desire for business expansion, a low-interest-rate environment reducing financing costs, and the need to continuously supplement capital in response to increasing industry competition [2][3]. Group 3 - A total of 54 securities firms have successfully issued 70 technology innovation bonds this year, raising 82.44 billion yuan, with Guotai Junan leading at 18 billion yuan [2]. - The issuance of technology innovation bonds reflects the firms' commitment to supporting the real economy and aligning with national strategies [3]. Group 4 - Among the 75 firms that issued bonds, four major firms led the market with issuance exceeding 100 billion yuan, including China Galaxy at 146.9 billion yuan, Guotai Junan at 135.3 billion yuan, Huatai Securities at 125.6 billion yuan, and CITIC Securities at 102.7 billion yuan [3]. - Additionally, seven firms have issued 30 bonds in overseas markets, raising a total of 4.703 billion USD, a 33.12% increase from the previous year [3]. Group 5 - The industry is focusing on improving debt financing mechanisms and enhancing capital efficiency, with firms like Dongwu Securities and CITIC Securities implementing strategic frameworks for financing and capital management [4]. - The overall financing pace in the securities industry is expected to accelerate, with a shift towards high-capital and high-return businesses, potentially enhancing overall profitability and driving high-quality development [4].

Core Insights - China Galaxy (06881) achieved a revenue of 22.75 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 44.4% [1][4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 10.97 billion yuan, a robust year-on-year growth of 57.5% [1][4] - The weighted average ROE stood at 8.77%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.97 percentage points, indicating a notable improvement in profitability [1][4] Group 1: Brokerage and Margin Financing - Benefiting from a 113% year-on-year increase in the average daily trading volume of stock funds to 1.81 trillion yuan, the brokerage business generated a net income of 6.31 billion yuan, up 70.7% year-on-year [2][5] - In the third quarter alone, the brokerage income reached 2.66 billion yuan, a staggering year-on-year increase of 125% and a quarter-on-quarter rise of 54%, significantly outpacing market trading volume growth [2][5] - The total number of customers surpassed 18 million by mid-2025, showcasing strong customer base and engagement [2][5] Group 2: Proprietary Investment Performance - The net investment income (including fair value changes) for the first three quarters was 12.103 billion yuan, achieving a year-on-year growth of 42.4% despite a high base [3][6] - The financial asset scale reached 417 billion yuan by the end of the third quarter, reflecting a 9% increase from the beginning of the year [3][6] - The ratio of equity securities and derivatives to net capital increased from 27.27% at the beginning of the year to 32.69%, indicating enhanced capacity for future market upswings [3][6] Group 3: Future Outlook - The institution maintains a "buy" rating, projecting net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 14.7 billion, 16.9 billion, and 18.3 billion yuan, corresponding to year-on-year growth rates of 46.5%, 14.9%, and 8.6% respectively [6] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book ratio of less than 1 for 2026, providing a substantial investment safety cushion [6] - As a leading central enterprise brokerage, China Galaxy is expected to leverage its advantages in risk management, customer base, and policy benefits to continuously unlock growth potential amid industry recovery and business structure optimization [6]

中经记者 罗辑 北京报道 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议全面总结了2025年经济工作，深入分析当前经济形 势，系统部署2026年经济工作。 在政策取向上，会议提出"要坚持稳中求进、提质增效"，明确延续"更加积极的财政政策"和"适度宽松 的货币政策"。会议还确定了明年经济工作抓好的八项重点任务。其中，"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内 市场"居于首位。 多家券商机构指出，会议释放了积极的政策信号，为推动宏观经济回升向好，推动经济实现质的有效提 升和量的合理增长。机构预计，上市公司基本面有望回升，为市场持续上行提供有力支撑。 宏观政策延续积极 中信证券研究认为，从总量政策看，会议要求继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，并 指出"发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应"，政策或更注重政策协调与落地效果。财政政策方面，会议保 持了"实施更加积极的财政政策"的定调，较去年相比，表述上减少了"提高赤字率"但增加"保持必要的 财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量"。 "我们预计明年财政预算赤字率或与去年持平，特别国债、地方新增专项债规模或会小幅提高。"中信证 券分析表示。 货币政策方面，中信证券强调，会议明确 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 12.66, representing a potential upside of 25.9% from the current price of HKD 10.05 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong performance with a significant increase in revenue and net profit, achieving a revenue of RMB 227.5 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 44.4%, and a net profit of RMB 109.7 billion, up 57.5% year-on-year [5]. - The return on equity (ROE) has improved to 8.77%, reflecting enhanced profitability and operational efficiency [5]. - The brokerage and margin financing businesses have shown robust growth, with net income from brokerage services reaching RMB 63.1 billion, a 70.7% increase year-on-year, benefiting from a 113% rise in average daily trading volume [5]. - The company's self-investment segment has also performed well, with net investment income growing by 42.4% year-on-year to RMB 121.03 billion [5]. - Investment banking revenues have rebounded, with net income of RMB 4.8 billion, a 29.9% increase year-on-year, driven by a significant rise in equity underwriting [5]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company is projected to have total revenue of RMB 336 billion, with a net profit of RMB 79 billion, translating to an EPS of 0.67 [3][6]. - The company expects revenue to grow to RMB 355 billion in 2024, followed by a decline to RMB 308 billion in 2025, before rebounding to RMB 342 billion in 2026 and RMB 361 billion in 2027 [3][6]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is RMB 147 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 46.5% [5][6]. - The company’s financial metrics indicate a price-to-book ratio of 0.9 for 2025, suggesting a favorable valuation relative to its net asset value [3][5].

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a strong upward trend on December 12, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 446.28 points, or 1.75%, closing at 25,976.79 points [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 103.46 points, or 1.87%, closing at 5,638.05 points [1] - The China Enterprises Index rose by 145.07 points, or 1.62%, closing at 9,079.35 points [1] - The Red Chip Index gained 47.77 points, or 1.16%, closing at 4,150.4 points [1] Sector Performance - Technology stocks saw significant gains, with NetEase rising over 4%, and Tencent, Alibaba, and Lenovo increasing by over 2% [1] - Power equipment stocks surged, with Dongfang Electric rising over 13% [1] - Gold stocks generally rose, with Zijin Mining International increasing by over 3% [1] - Chinese brokerage stocks saw a late rally, with China Galaxy rising over 6% [1] - Insurance stocks strengthened in the afternoon, with China Pacific Insurance and China Life both rising over 5% [1] - AIGC concept stocks and real estate blue-chip stocks also saw gains [1] - However, the Everbright system and tobacco stocks declined [1] Company News - Hong Kong Electronic Commerce reported a total merchandise transaction value of HKD 636 million in November, a year-on-year decrease of 7.4% [2] - BOE Technology Group signed a total product processing agreement with its Vietnam subsidiary [2] - China Galaxy completed the issuance of a short-term corporate bond worth 4 billion yuan [2] - Cloudy Technology plans to establish a joint venture focusing on innovative robotic solutions [3] - Cloudtop New Horizon signed a commercialization service agreement with Haisen Bio [3] - Peijia Medical's TaurusTrio transcatheter aortic valve system received approval from the National Medical Products Administration [3] - China Antibody's SM17 new drug research application was accepted by the National Medical Products Administration [4] - Hengyi Holdings plans to undergo capital restructuring and fundraising activities [5] Institutional Insights - GF Securities noted that the Hong Kong stock market is more sensitive to external risks, with potential rebounds expected in mid to late December and early January [6] - Dongwu Securities believes the market is still in a left-side phase, requiring patience for a rebound [6] - Everbright Securities indicated that while there is significant room for growth compared to previous bull markets, the current market may lack strong catalysts [6] - Guoxin Securities highlighted that the recent net inflow of southbound funds into the Hong Kong market exceeded 110 billion yuan in November, indicating strong liquidity and a willingness to invest at lower levels [6] - The forecast for the Hong Kong market in 2026 is expected to range between 30,000 and 32,000 points [6] Industry Trends - The ice and snow economy is emerging as a new growth point, encompassing ice and snow sports, tourism, equipment, and culture [7] - This sector is characterized by a long industrial chain, significant spillover effects, and high social benefits, contributing to regional economic development [7] - The increasing popularity of ice and snow sports and tourism is transforming "cold resources" into a "hot economy," leading to rapid growth in the ice and snow industry [7] - There is a recommendation to focus on ice and snow sports brands with marginal improvements and stable dividend-paying leading companies [7]