Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company 康方生物 (9926 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 140.00, indicating a potential upside of 29.3% from the current price of HKD 108.30 [2][12][13]. Core Insights - The company is advancing multiple indications for its drug 依沃西, with a significant focus on I/O and ADC strategies, which are expected to differentiate its offerings in the market [2][7]. - The report highlights the promising overseas approval prospects for 依沃西, particularly for its application in treating 2L+ EGFRm NSCLC, as the efficacy shown in the HARMONi study surpasses existing chemotherapy options [7]. - 康方生物 is also initiating several Phase III studies in mainland China for various cancers, indicating a broadening of its therapeutic scope [7]. - The report anticipates a peak sales adjustment for 依沃西 in China to RMB 7.1 billion [7]. - The company is starting overseas development for 卡度尼利, with a recent approval for a new indication in first-line cervical cancer, and plans for a Phase II study in second-line liver cancer [7]. - The ADC development strategy is gaining traction, with the first ADC (HER3) entering clinical trials and the first bispecific ADC AK146D1 completing patient enrollment [7]. - The report emphasizes the rich pipeline of catalysts, including upcoming data releases and negotiations for multiple products in Q4 2025 [7]. Financial Overview - The company’s projected revenues for 2025 are estimated at RMB 3,506 million, with a significant growth trajectory expected in subsequent years, reaching RMB 8,053 million by 2027 [6][15]. - The net profit is projected to recover to RMB 402 million in 2025, with further increases anticipated in the following years [6][15]. - The report notes a substantial year-to-date stock price increase of 78.42% [4]. - The company’s market capitalization stands at approximately HKD 97.08 billion [4]. Valuation Model - The DCF valuation model indicates an equity value of RMB 114,241 million, translating to a per-share value of HKD 140.00 [9]. - The report reflects adjustments in revenue forecasts, with a decrease in expected revenues for 2025 and 2026 compared to previous estimates [8]. Market Position - 康方生物 is positioned within the biotechnology sector, focusing on innovative therapies that leverage both I/O and ADC technologies, aiming to capture new market opportunities [2][12]. - The report suggests that the company’s strategic initiatives and product pipeline could lead to sustained long-term value creation [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (159567) has shown significant growth in both share volume and fund size since its inception, indicating strong investor interest in the innovative drug sector [1]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of July 9, 2024, the Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (159567) closed with a gain of 1.08% and a trading volume of 2.352 billion yuan [1]. - The fund's share volume increased by 419.87% from 3.95 million shares at the end of 2023 to 20.55 million shares by July 8, 2024 [1]. - The fund's size grew by 749.27%, from 378 million yuan at the end of 2023 to 3.209 billion yuan by July 8, 2024 [1]. Group 2: Liquidity and Trading Activity - Over the last 20 trading days, the cumulative trading amount for the ETF reached 42.082 billion yuan, with an average daily trading amount of 2.104 billion yuan [1]. - Since the beginning of the year, the ETF has recorded a total trading amount of 100.143 billion yuan over 124 trading days, averaging 808 million yuan per day [1]. Group 3: Fund Management - The current fund manager, Ma Jun, has managed the Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF since its inception on January 3, 2024, achieving a return of 56.11% during the management period [1]. Group 4: Top Holdings - The ETF's top holdings include WuXi Biologics (11.47%), BeiGene (10.87%), and Innovent Biologics (9.60%), among others, indicating a focus on leading companies in the innovative drug sector [2]. - The fund's holdings are diversified across several key players in the biotechnology and pharmaceutical industries, with significant positions in companies like China Biologic Products and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group [2].

Core Viewpoint - 康方生物 is positioned to lead the next generation of tumor immunotherapy with its innovative dual-antibody platform and strong pipeline of products [1][2][3] Group 1: Company Overview - 康方生物 focuses on developing innovative antibody drugs, utilizing its ACE platform and Tetrabody technology to support over 20 pipelines [1] - The company achieved a significant milestone with the approval of AK104, the world's first PD-1/CTLA-4 dual antibody, in 2022 [1] - 康方生物 has a robust cash position of 7.3 billion RMB in 2024, which supports the commercialization of its pipeline [1] Group 2: Product Pipeline and Market Potential - AK112 has outperformed K drug in head-to-head trials and is expected to become a cornerstone product in the global immuno-oncology market, with peak revenue projections of 17.1 billion RMB by 2035 [2] - AK104 is the only approved PD-1/CTLA-4 dual antibody, with ongoing clinical trials expanding its indications, including cervical and gastric cancers [3] - The company anticipates rapid revenue growth from AK104 and AK112, with projected revenues of 3.67 billion, 5.34 billion, and 7.24 billion RMB for 2025-2027 [4] Group 3: Financial Projections and Valuation - The valuation of 康方生物 is projected at 160 billion HKD based on the potential of AK104 and AK112, with domestic revenue estimated at 3x PS and overseas at 15x PE [4] - The FCFF model indicates a target price of 163.33 RMB, suggesting significant upside potential compared to the closing price on July 7, 2025 [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the dual antibody sector, spearheading a new era in immuno-oncology with its innovative products, particularly AK104 and AK112, which are nearing commercialization [8][13]. - The revenue forecast indicates significant growth, with projected revenues of 3.672 billion, 5.342 billion, and 7.240 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a strong upward trajectory [1][24]. - The company has a robust cash reserve of 7.344 billion CNY, which supports ongoing research and development efforts [29]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company focuses on developing innovative antibody drugs and has established a comprehensive drug development platform, ACE, with over 20 product pipelines [13][14]. - It has successfully launched the world's first dual immune checkpoint inhibitor, AK104, for cervical cancer in June 2022, and is expanding its product offerings [13][14]. Financial Performance - The company reported total revenue of 2.124 billion CNY in 2024, with a significant increase in product sales revenue to approximately 2.002 billion CNY, marking a year-on-year growth of 24.88% [24][25]. - The gross profit margin remains high at 86.39%, indicating strong profitability relative to industry standards [25][28]. Product Pipeline - AK104 is the only approved PD-1/CTLA-4 dual antibody globally, with multiple indications approved and ongoing clinical trials for additional cancers [33][34]. - AK112 is also positioned to challenge existing therapies, with promising clinical trial results and a strong market potential [8][19]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a market valuation of 160 billion HKD based on the anticipated revenues from its core products [8]. - The report projects a target price of 163.33 CNY per share, indicating a potential upside from the current market price [8].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the PD-(L)1/VEGF bispecific antibody business development (BD) expectations are driving a sustained surge in the innovative drug market. AstraZeneca is in talks for a potential deal worth up to $15 billion with Summit Therapeutics for the PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody AK112, indicating strong recognition from multinational corporations (MNCs) for this class of drugs [5][14] - The successful launch of Vuxin Qibai monoclonal antibody marks a harvest period for innovative drugs in the gout field, with the market for anti-gout drugs in China expected to grow from 2.2 billion yuan in 2024 to over 10 billion yuan by 2030 [6][32] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has seen a 3.64% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.1 percentage points, ranking 4th among 31 sub-industries [7][41] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The report discusses the ongoing excitement in the innovative drug market driven by the PD-(L)1/VEGF bispecific antibody BD expectations and the successful market entry of Vuxin Qibai monoclonal antibody [5][6][14] Subsector Performance - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector rose by 3.64%, with other biopharmaceuticals showing the highest increase of 8.28%. The medical device sector experienced the largest decline at 0.21% [7][41][44] Recommended and Benefiting Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - Innovative drugs: Xinda Biopharma, Kangfang Biopharma, and others - Medical devices: Yingke Medical, Maipu Medical, and others - Benefiting stocks: Innovative drugs in H-shares and A-shares, including Zai Lab, Yifang Biopharma, and others [8][40][51]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (159567) closed down 1.44% on July 7, with a trading volume of 1.402 billion yuan [1] - The fund was established on January 3, 2024, with a management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [1] - As of July 4, 2024, the fund's latest share count was 1.995 billion shares, with a total size of 3.203 billion yuan, reflecting a 404.69% increase in shares and a 747.72% increase in size year-to-date [1] Group 2 - The fund's liquidity showed a cumulative trading amount of 44.415 billion yuan over the last 20 trading days, with an average daily trading amount of 2.221 billion yuan [1] - Year-to-date, the cumulative trading amount reached 96.310 billion yuan over 122 trading days, with an average daily trading amount of 789 million yuan [1] - The current fund manager, Ma Jun, has managed the fund since its inception, achieving a return of 60.51% during the tenure [1] Group 3 - The top holdings of the Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF include WuXi Biologics (11.47%), BeiGene (10.87%), and Innovent Biologics (9.60%), among others [2] - The fund's holdings are diversified across various companies in the innovative drug sector, with significant investments in both domestic and international firms [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [9]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical index increased by 3.64% during the week of June 30 to July 4, outperforming both the ChiNext and CSI 300 indices, indicating a positive market sentiment towards innovative drugs and brain-computer interface technologies [14][15]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of PD-1 Plus drugs, which are seen as a driving force in the current market recovery, supported by significant business development (BD) deals and a favorable industry trend [2][15]. - The outlook for 2025 remains optimistic, focusing on innovative drugs, new technologies, and the restructuring of supply chains [3][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a rebound, with innovative drugs and brain-computer interfaces leading the charge. The report highlights the importance of PD-1 Plus drugs in this recovery [14][15]. 2. Innovative Drug Selection - PD-1 Plus drugs are gaining traction, with significant overseas collaborations and clinical trial advancements. The report notes that companies like Innovent Biologics and BeiGene are at the forefront of this trend [20][21]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with promising PD-1/IL-2 combinations and those that have successfully entered international markets [23]. 3. Investment Strategies - The report outlines a strategy focusing on core stocks in the innovative drug space, particularly those with strong growth potential and upcoming clinical data releases [3][17]. - Key companies to watch include Innovent Biologics, Zai Lab, and others involved in PD-1 Plus and related technologies [4][17]. 4. Market Performance - The report provides a comparative analysis of the performance of various indices, noting that the innovative drug index has outperformed the broader pharmaceutical index and the CSI 300 index since the beginning of 2025 [41][42]. - The report also highlights the performance of specific stocks within the innovative drug sector, indicating a positive trend for companies like Zai Lab and BeiGene [45]. 5. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued optimism in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly around innovative drugs and new technologies such as AI in healthcare and rehabilitation robotics [3][16]. - The focus will be on identifying high-growth opportunities in the innovative drug space and leveraging the ongoing restructuring of supply chains [3][19].

Core Viewpoint - Multiple favorable policies have been released, leading to a collective surge in innovative drug stocks, with Kangfang Biotech's market capitalization surpassing HKD 100 billion [9][11]. Market Performance - On July 4, the Hang Seng Index initially dropped over 1.5% but later narrowed its losses, closing down 0.64% at 23,916.06 points, with a weekly decline of 1.52% [2]. - The total market turnover was HKD 267.8 billion, with southbound funds net buying HKD 6.68 billion [4]. - The healthcare sector index rose by 0.8%, while the materials sector index fell by nearly 1.2% [7]. Stock Highlights - Kangfang Biotech's stock price increased by 9.43% to HKD 116.10, with a total market value reaching HKD 104.2 billion [9][12]. - Other innovative drug companies also saw significant gains, including: - Boan Biotech up 8.55% - Cloudtop New Drug up 4.84% - WuXi AppTec up 4.31% [11][12]. Policy Impact - On July 1, the National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission released measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, which are expected to expand market opportunities and encourage R&D efforts [12][13]. - The introduction of a commercial insurance innovative drug directory is seen as a significant exploration of an innovative payment system, injecting new vitality into the innovative drug ecosystem [13].

Core Insights - On July 4, 2025, Guotai Junan International (01788), Alibaba-W (09988), and SMIC (00981) were the top three stocks by trading volume in the Southbound Stock Connect, with trading amounts of 10.714 billion, 3.571 billion, and 3.184 billion respectively [1] - In the Southbound Stock Connect for the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Guotai Junan International (01788), Alibaba-W (09988), and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) also led the trading volume, with amounts of 3.641 billion, 3.489 billion, and 2.435 billion respectively [1] Southbound Stock Connect (Shanghai-Hong Kong) - Top active companies by trading volume: - Guotai Junan International (01788): 10.714 billion, net buy of 91.5226 million [2] - Alibaba-W (09988): 3.571 billion, net sell of 334 million [2] - SMIC (00981): 3.184 billion, net buy of 37.2 million [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810): 3.087 billion, net sell of 370 million [2] - Meituan-W (03690): 2.379 billion, net sell of 270 million [2] - China Construction Bank (00939): 2.120 billion, net buy of 168 million [2] - XPeng Inc. (09868): 2.108 billion, net buy of 919 million [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700): 1.900 billion, net sell of 145 million [2] - CanSino Biologics (09926): 1.674 billion, net sell of 95.5519 million [2] - Dmall (02586): 1.249 billion, net buy of 30.1596 million [2] Southbound Stock Connect (Shenzhen-Hong Kong) - Top active companies by trading volume: - Guotai Junan International (01788): 3.641 billion, net buy of 50.5414 million [2] - Alibaba-W (09988): 3.489 billion, net sell of 1.153 billion [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810): 2.435 billion, net sell of 443 million [2] - SMIC (00981): 1.969 billion, net buy of 39.6 million [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700): 1.777 billion, net sell of 28.7313 million [2] - CanSino Biologics (09926): 1.675 billion, net buy of 19.5 million [2] - Meituan-W (03690): 1.660 billion, net buy of 96.5584 million [2] - XPeng Inc. (09868): 1.480 billion, net sell of 462.813 million [2] - Innovent Biologics (01801): 819 million, net buy of 18.2291 million [2] - China Mobile (00941): 622 million, net buy of 47.7507 million [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index (HSHCI) has shown strong performance, with significant gains in constituent stocks, indicating a positive trend in the healthcare sector [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 4, 2025, the HSHCI rose by 1.19%, with notable increases in stocks such as Huahao Zhongtian Pharmaceutical-B (02563) up 16.34% and Kangfang Biotech (09926) up 8.67% [3]. - The Hang Seng Healthcare ETF (513060) increased by 0.86%, with a latest price of 0.59 yuan, and has seen a cumulative increase of 3.57% over the past week [3]. - The ETF recorded a turnover rate of 18.66% during the trading session, with a transaction volume of 1.516 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Huatai Securities suggests that AI is expected to reshape drug development and healthcare service delivery, with increasing applications in the medical field, highlighting potential investment opportunities by 2025 [4]. - The Hang Seng Healthcare ETF has seen a significant growth in scale, with an increase of 191 million yuan over the past week, ranking in the top third among comparable funds [4]. - Leveraged funds are actively investing, with the latest financing buy-in amounting to 291 million yuan and a financing balance of 277 million yuan [4]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - The Hang Seng Healthcare ETF has achieved a net value increase of 18.78% over the past two years, with a maximum monthly return of 28.34% since inception [4]. - The ETF has outperformed its benchmark with an annualized excess return of 1.73% over the past year, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.85 as of June 27, 2025 [4]. - The ETF has the lowest drawdown among comparable funds, with a relative drawdown of 0.45% year-to-date [4]. Group 4: Fee Structure and Valuation - The management fee for the Hang Seng Healthcare ETF is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.15% [5]. - The ETF's tracking error over the past year is 0.069%, the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [5]. - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the HSHCI is 27.68, indicating a valuation below 90.41% of the historical data over the past three years, suggesting it is at a historical low [5]. Group 5: Index Composition - The top ten weighted stocks in the HSHCI account for 58.46% of the index, including companies like Innovent Biologics (01801) and BeiGene (06160) [5].