Summary of Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM) - **Industry**: China Internet and Other Services - **Market Cap**: US$48.82 billion - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: US$83.00, representing a 17% upside from the current price of US$70.89 as of November 17, 2025 Key Financial Highlights - **3Q25 Revenue**: Rmb18.2 billion, up 16% YoY, 1% above Morgan Stanley estimates [2][4] - **Segment Performance**: - **Hotel Revenue**: Up 18% YoY - **Flight Revenue**: Up 12% YoY - **International OTA GTV**: Up 60% YoY - **Outbound Volume**: Recovered to 140% of pre-COVID levels [2] - **Non-GAAP Operating Profit**: Rmb6.1 billion, up 12% YoY, 4% above estimates [3] - **Non-GAAP Net Profit**: Rmb19.2 billion, up 221% YoY, primarily due to Rmb17 billion in other income from the sale of MMYT stake [3] Detailed Financial Metrics - **Operating Margin**: 33.4%, 1.2 percentage points above estimates [3] - **Net Revenue**: Rmb18.338 billion, up 16% YoY [4] - **Gross Profit**: Rmb14.979 billion, with a gross margin of 81.7% [4] - **Profit Before Tax**: Rmb23.098 billion, a 315% increase YoY [4] - **Net Income to Shareholders**: Rmb19.919 billion, up 165% YoY [4] Future Outlook - **EPS Estimates**: - FY 2025: Rmb26.62 - FY 2026: Rmb29.45 - FY 2027: Rmb33.50 [6] - **Revenue Projections**: - FY 2025: Rmb61.347 billion - FY 2026: Rmb68.881 billion - FY 2027: Rmb76.381 billion [6] Risks and Considerations - **Upside Risks**: - Rebound in macroeconomic growth and RMB - Recovery in outbound travel growth [10] - **Downside Risks**: - Rising competition from domestic players like Tongcheng Travel and Meituan - Pandemic uncertainties and macroeconomic slowdown affecting travel demand [10] Valuation Methodology - **Valuation Method**: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) - **Key Assumptions**: - WACC of 10.5% - Terminal growth rate of 3% - FX rate of 7.15 [9] Conclusion Trip.com Group Ltd shows strong financial performance with significant growth in revenue and profit metrics, driven by recovery in travel demand. The company is well-positioned for future growth, although it faces competitive and macroeconomic risks. The stock is rated as Overweight with a favorable price target indicating potential upside.

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The U.S. Department of Energy has indicated that a significant portion of future funding will be directed towards nuclear power plant construction, highlighting the increasing importance of nuclear energy in the federal energy strategy. This shift is driven by the substantial growth in electricity demand from AI and large-scale data centers, which traditional renewable energy sources and grid expansions cannot meet in the short term. Nuclear power, known for its stability and predictability, is re-emerging as a foundational option in the U.S. energy system [4][16] - The report notes a decline in technology stocks during the week of November 10 to November 14, 2025, with the Hang Seng Technology Index falling by 0.4% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping by 2.0% [7][9] - The cryptocurrency market experienced significant outflows, with a total market capitalization of $3.35 trillion as of November 14, 2025, down from $3.37 trillion the previous week. The total trading volume for cryptocurrencies was $219.79 billion, accounting for 6.56% of the total market capitalization [18][22] Summary by Sections 1. Overseas AI - The technology sector saw fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Technology Index closing at 5812.8, down 0.4%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index at 6811.2, down 2.0% [7][9] - The top five gainers included Xpeng Motors (+12%), Cisco (+10%), AMD (+6%), Trip.com Group (+5%), and Tongcheng Travel (+5%), while the top five losers were NUSCALE POWER (-26%), NANO NUCLEAR ENERGY (-16%), CENTRUS ENERGY (-15%), OKLO (-13%), and Blue Doctor Semiconductor (-12%) [9][14] 2. Web3 and Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market is currently in a state of panic, with the Fear and Greed Index at 22, indicating a high level of fear among investors [22] - The report highlights that the core assets in the cryptocurrency market experienced significant outflows, totaling $1.112 billion for the week, with major ETFs also recording net outflows [27][34] - The overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market remains negative, with liquidity tightening and core asset prices dropping below $95,000 [34][36]

Market Overview - On November 18, global financial markets experienced a collective decline due to multiple factors affecting market risk sentiment, with Hong Kong's three major indices showing weakness throughout the day. The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.72%, closing below the 26,000-point mark, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.65% and 1.93%, respectively [1][2]. Sector Performance - Concerns over overvaluation in artificial intelligence have led to a continued decline in technology stocks. The spot gold price briefly fell below $4,000, causing significant drops in gold and non-ferrous metal stocks, with Lingbao Gold experiencing a nearly 9% decline. The steel sector also faced notable declines due to significant price drops throughout the year [2][5]. - The steel sector led the declines, with China Hanking down over 9%, Maanshan Iron & Steel down over 7%, and several other steel companies experiencing declines of over 5%. A report from CITIC Construction indicated that the steel price is expected to decline significantly by 2025 due to supply-demand mismatches and weakened cost support [5][6]. - The gold sector saw substantial losses, with Lingbao Gold down nearly 9% and other gold mining companies also experiencing declines of over 5% [6][8]. - The lithium battery sector continued to decline, with major companies like Cai Ke New Energy and Zhong Chuang Innovation falling over 10% and 8%, respectively [10]. - The automotive sector faced a downturn, with sales data indicating a 0.8% year-on-year decline in retail sales for October, and a significant drop in November sales figures [11][12]. Investment Trends - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of HKD 7.466 billion, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect seeing net purchases of HKD 2.745 billion and HKD 4.721 billion, respectively [15]. - Looking ahead, Guosen Securities noted that the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December will set the tone for macro policies and key tasks for the following year, influencing investment strategies and stock valuations [17].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market continues to face pressure, with the Hang Seng Index opening down 0.8%, the National Enterprises Index down 0.72%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.25% [1] - Major stocks such as China Hongqiao, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, Li Auto, and NetEase experienced declines, with China Hongqiao dropping 7.74% [1] Company Performance - XPeng Motors reported a significant reduction in net loss for the three months ending September 30, 2025, with a loss of 381 million RMB, down 78.93% year-on-year. Revenue reached 20.381 billion RMB, a 101.76% increase, with automotive sales revenue at 18.054 billion RMB, up 105.27% [1] - The gross profit for XPeng Motors was 4.104 billion RMB, a 166.26% increase, with a quarterly gross margin of 20.1%, up 4.8 percentage points from the same period in 2024 [1] - Leap Motor reported a net profit of 150 million RMB for Q3 2025, with total net profit for the first three quarters reaching 180 million RMB. Q3 revenue was 19.45 billion RMB, a 97.3% increase from 9.86 billion RMB in Q4 2024 [2] - The gross margin for Leap Motor in Q3 2025 was 14.5%, up 0.9 percentage points from Q2 2025 [2] Debt Issuance - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company announced the successful issuance of its third phase of technology innovation bonds for 2025, raising 3 billion RMB with a term of 3+N years and an interest rate of 2.06% [2] Market Sentiment - Investor sentiment is cautious due to cooling interest rate cut expectations and a lack of surprises in earnings reports, leading to a downward trend in major indices [3] - The overall market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, with significant support at 26,000 points and resistance at 27,000 points [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Ctrip Group's Q3 performance is robust, with revenue increasing by 16% year-on-year to 18.3 billion yuan, aligning with expectations from both Citigroup and the market [1] - The gross margin for the quarter was reported at 81.7%, slightly higher than the 81% in Q2 and above Citigroup's expectations [1] - The non-GAAP operating profit margin reached 33.4%, exceeding Citigroup's forecast of 32% [1] Group 2 - The hotel business showed steady performance, primarily driven by the recovery in Average Daily Rate (ADR) [1] - Strong growth in other income is attributed to the rapid expansion of the advertising business [1] - The solid operating profit margin benefited from better-than-expected gross margins and a reduction in administrative expenses [1] Group 3 - Citigroup has set a target price of $85 for Ctrip's U.S. stock and maintains a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a collective decline, with technology and automotive stocks leading the downturn, while Ctrip Group's strong quarterly performance stands out as a positive highlight in the online travel sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The three major indices in the Hong Kong stock market fell collectively on November 18, with technology stocks experiencing widespread declines and automotive stocks weakening [1] - The largest ETF in the A-share sector, the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180), followed the index down, with significant declines in holdings such as XPeng Motors, Lenovo Group, Xiaomi Group, NIO, Li Auto, and BYD [1] Group 2: Ctrip Group's Financial Performance - Ctrip Group reported a net operating revenue of 18.3 billion RMB for Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16%, driven by sustained global travel demand [1] - The company's net profit for the quarter reached 19.9 billion RMB, a substantial increase from 6.8 billion RMB in the same period of 2024 [1] Group 3: International Business Growth - Ctrip's international business showed remarkable performance, with total bookings on its international OTA platform increasing by approximately 60% year-on-year, and inbound tourism bookings more than doubling [1] - Outbound hotel and flight bookings have surged to 140% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019 [1] Group 4: Industry Insights - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, the revenue growth of online travel companies is outpacing the overall travel market, benefiting from improved online conversion rates and a predominance of leisure travelers [1] - Ctrip and Tongcheng Travel have not been adversely affected by new competitors entering the market this year; instead, domestic marketing efficiency has improved, and the growth rates for outbound travel and pure overseas business provide long-term performance growth drivers [1]

Core Insights - Ctrip Group's international business showed remarkable performance in Q3 2025, with total bookings on the international OTA platform increasing by approximately 60% year-on-year, and inbound travel bookings more than doubling, up over 100% [1] - Outbound hotel and flight bookings reached 140% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019 [1] Financial Performance - The company's net operating revenue for Q3 2025 was 183 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 16% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24% [3] - Accommodation booking revenue was 8 billion RMB, up 18% year-on-year and 29% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Transportation ticketing revenue reached 6.3 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 12% and a quarter-on-quarter rise of 17% [1] - Vacation revenue amounted to 1.6 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year growth of 3% and a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 49% [1] - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 19.9 billion RMB, a substantial increase compared to 6.8 billion RMB in Q4 2024 and 4.9 billion RMB in the previous quarter [1] Investment in Technology - The company continued to increase its investment in technology, with product development expenses reaching 4.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 12% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17%, accounting for 22% of net operating revenue [1] - Sales and marketing expenses were 4.2 billion RMB, up 24% year-on-year and 26% quarter-on-quarter, representing 23% of net operating revenue [1]

Group 1 - Ctrip Group-S (09961.HK) saw a post-earnings increase of nearly 4%, with a current rise of 3.69% to 576 HKD [2] - The trading volume reached 654 million HKD [2]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group's stock rose nearly 4% following the release of its Q3 2025 earnings report, reflecting strong performance driven by increased global travel demand [1] Financial Performance - Ctrip's net operating revenue for Q3 reached 18.3 billion RMB (approximately 2.6 billion USD), marking a 16% increase compared to the same period last year [1] - The company's net profit for the quarter was 19.9 billion RMB (around 2.8 billion USD), significantly up from 6.8 billion RMB in Q3 2024 [1] International Business Growth - Ctrip's international business showed remarkable growth, with total bookings on its international OTA platform increasing by approximately 60% year-on-year [1] - Inbound tourism bookings surged by over 100% compared to the previous year [1] - Bookings for outbound hotels and flights have reached 140% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group's stock rose nearly 4% following the release of its Q3 2025 earnings report, reflecting strong performance driven by increased global travel demand [1] Financial Performance - The net operating revenue for Q3 reached 18.3 billion RMB (approximately 2.6 billion USD), representing a 16% increase compared to the same period last year [1] - The net profit for the quarter was 19.9 billion RMB (approximately 2.8 billion USD), significantly up from 6.8 billion RMB in Q4 2024, marking a substantial year-on-year growth [1] International Business Performance - Ctrip's international business showed remarkable growth, with total bookings on the international OTA platform increasing by approximately 60% year-on-year [1] - Inbound travel bookings surged by over 100% compared to the previous year [1] - Bookings for outbound hotels and flights have risen to 140% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019 [1]