Core Viewpoint - The securities industry in China has shown significant recovery in 2025, with a focus on enhancing its capabilities to serve the real economy and new productive forces, alongside a notable increase in investor asset allocation and satisfaction. The merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities marks a step towards building a first-class investment bank, while the industry continues to strengthen its overseas subsidiaries and deepen high-level openness [2][4][5]. Industry Development - The securities industry has increasingly demonstrated its functional capabilities, with total assets of 107 securities firms reaching 14.5 trillion yuan, a growth of over 10% from the end of 2024. Net assets rose to 3.3 trillion yuan, showing steady growth [5]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, 43 listed securities firms reported a combined operating income of 419.56 billion yuan, with an average year-on-year increase of 40%, and a net profit of 169.29 billion yuan, reflecting an average increase of 88.68% [5]. - The merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities has been completed, achieving a "1+1>2" effect, while other mergers, such as CICC with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, are in progress [4][5]. Investment Banking - The investment banking sector has shown signs of recovery, focusing on serving the real economy through equity financing, mergers and acquisitions, and cross-border service upgrades. The A-share IPO market saw over 100 companies listed, with total fundraising reaching 110 billion yuan [7][8]. - The Hong Kong IPO market has rebounded, with 91 companies completing IPOs and raising a total of 259.89 billion HKD, marking a significant recovery [8]. - Mergers and acquisitions have become a key avenue for investment banks to deepen their services to the real economy, with policies guiding the market towards industrial integration and transformation [8]. Wealth Management - The wealth management business of securities firms has seen significant growth, with a total revenue of approximately 145.03 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 37.4% [11]. - Brokerage fee income reached 111.78 billion yuan, up 74.64%, while asset management fees were 33.25 billion yuan, showing a modest increase [11]. - The transition from earning trading commissions to management and service fees is evident, with over 90% of new accounts opened online and more than 80% of transactions conducted via mobile apps [13]. Asset Management - The asset management industry is undergoing a restructuring, with the total scale of private asset management products reaching 5.79 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.95% from the beginning of the year [15]. - The pursuit of public fund licenses has been paused, with several firms withdrawing their applications, indicating a shift in focus towards private asset management strategies [16]. - Collaboration between asset management and wealth management is emerging as a new development path, with firms expected to enhance their offerings in active management and client service [17]. Mergers and Acquisitions - The wave of mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry has intensified, with significant deals such as the merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities and the absorption of Dongxing and Xinda Securities by CICC [18][19]. - Policies supporting the consolidation of leading firms aim to enhance core competitiveness and encourage differentiated development among smaller firms [19]. - The industry is expected to see a clearer new structure by 2026, with a focus on integrating resources and enhancing the international competitiveness of Chinese securities firms [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the insurance and brokerage sectors, suggesting an "Overweight" rating for both industries, indicating expected outperformance compared to the overall market [2][66]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector is experiencing a fundamental and valuation mismatch, with a recommendation to focus on leading firms benefiting from improved competitive dynamics [2][5]. - The insurance sector is poised for a systematic value reassessment, with significant regulatory changes expected to enhance asset-liability management practices [2][17]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,568.18 with a slight decline of -0.28% over the week, while the non-bank index rose by 2.90% [5]. - The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial sectors reported gains of 1.01%, 7.03%, and 1.39% respectively [5]. Key Data in Non-Banking Sector - As of December 19, 2025, the average daily trading volume in the stock market was 18,033.77 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 15.23% compared to the previous month [41]. - The margin trading balance reached 24,993.66 billion yuan, an increase of 34.0% from the end of 2024 [15]. Brokerage Sector Insights - The report highlights the merger of China International Capital Corporation (CICC) with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, marking a significant consolidation trend in the brokerage industry [2][29]. - The brokerage index's price-to-book ratio (PB) is currently at 1.38, indicating a low valuation compared to historical levels [2]. Insurance Sector Insights - The new asset-liability management regulations are expected to significantly impact the insurance industry, emphasizing the need for effective risk management and alignment of assets and liabilities [2][17]. - The insurance sector index increased by 7.03%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 7.30 percentage points [2]. Investment Recommendations - For the brokerage sector, the report recommends focusing on top-tier firms such as Guotai Junan, GF Securities, and CITIC Securities, which are expected to benefit from improved competitive conditions [2]. - In the insurance sector, companies like China Life, Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance are highlighted for their potential in the ongoing value reassessment [2].

推动人民币升值的因素逐渐增多，市场关注度也开始升温，投资者要逐步适应在一个人民币持续升值的 环境下去做资产配置。从过去20年间7轮人民币升值周期来看，汇率并不是主导行业配置的决定性因 素。然而，部分行业在持续升值预期形成的初期确实会有更好表现，市场可能会复制这样的肌肉记忆， 同时从成本收入分析来看，约19%的行业会因为升值带来利润率提升，这些行业也会逐步被投资者重视 起来。此外，为抑制过快单边升值趋势而做出的政策应对，反而是影响行业配置的更重要因素。行业配 置上，在人民币持续升值的背景下，可以关注短期肌肉记忆驱动、利润率变化驱动以及政策变化驱动三 条线索，我们在本期聚焦详细梳理了潜在受益行业。 推动人民币持续升值的因素逐渐增多，市场关注度也开始升温 我们认为投资者要逐步开始适应在一个人民币持续升值的环境下去做资产配置。今年前11个月中国的累 计贸易顺差达到1.076万亿美元，同比增长21.7%，创历史新高。更重要的是出口企业的结汇意愿开始不 断上升，今年10月顺差转化为顺收的比例已经超过100%，这是与过去几年最大的差异。2022年以来， 我们估算出口商积累的待结汇规模为1万亿美元左右，一旦人民币升值预期形成 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance sector [1]. Core Views - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from economic recovery and rising interest rates, with a significant increase in the sales proportion of savings products. The report anticipates improvements in both the liability and investment sides of the insurance business [46]. - The securities sector is undergoing transformation, which is expected to bring new business growth points, benefiting from a recovering market and favorable policy environment [46]. - The non-bank financial sector is currently undervalued, providing a safety margin and a balanced risk-reward profile [46]. Summary by Sections Non-Bank Financial Subsector Recent Performance - From December 15 to December 19, 2025, all non-bank financial sub-sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index, with the insurance sector rising by 7.04%, multi-financial sector by 2.04%, and securities sector by 1.06%, while the overall non-bank financial sector increased by 2.99% [11][12]. Securities Sector - Trading volume decreased month-on-month in December 2025, with the average daily trading amount for stock funds at 21,087 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.09% but a month-on-month decrease of 5.91% [16]. - The margin balance reached 24,994 billion yuan, up 32.93% year-on-year and 34.04% since the beginning of the year [16]. - The report highlights the merger of CICC with Dongxing and Xinda, which will result in a combined asset scale exceeding one trillion yuan, ranking fourth in the industry [20]. Insurance Sector - The report discusses the public consultation on new asset-liability management regulations, which aim to strengthen regulatory requirements and optimize long-term stock risk factor requirements [24]. - The insurance sector's valuation is currently between 0.67 and 1.01 times the 2025E P/EV, indicating it is at a historical low, thus maintaining an "Overweight" rating [32]. Multi-Financial Sector - The trust industry saw its asset scale reach 32.43 trillion yuan by June 2025, a year-on-year growth of 20.11% [32]. - The futures market experienced a significant increase in trading volume and value, with November 2025 figures showing a year-on-year increase of 13.54% in volume and 7.11% in value [39]. Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The report ranks the sectors as follows: insurance > securities > other multi-financial sectors, recommending companies such as China Life, Ping An, New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, CICC, and Tonghuashun [46].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that factors driving the appreciation of the Renminbi are increasing, leading to heightened market attention. Investors need to gradually adapt their asset allocation strategies in an environment of sustained Renminbi appreciation [1] Group 1: Historical Context and Market Behavior - Over the past 20 years, there have been seven cycles of Renminbi appreciation, and exchange rates have not been the decisive factor in industry allocation decisions. However, certain industries tend to perform better during the initial stages of sustained appreciation expectations, suggesting a potential for market memory to replicate past behaviors [1] - Approximately 19% of industries are expected to see an increase in profit margins due to Renminbi appreciation, which will gradually attract investor interest [1] Group 2: Policy Implications and Industry Allocation - Policy responses aimed at curbing rapid unilateral appreciation trends are considered more significant factors influencing industry allocation than the appreciation itself [1] - In the context of ongoing Renminbi appreciation, industry allocation can be guided by three key factors: short-term memory effects, changes in profit margins, and policy changes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that factors driving the appreciation of the Renminbi are increasing, leading to heightened market attention. Investors need to adapt their asset allocation strategies in a continuously appreciating Renminbi environment [1] Group 1: Historical Context and Market Behavior - Over the past 20 years, there have been seven cycles of Renminbi appreciation, and exchange rates are not the decisive factor in industry allocation decisions. However, certain industries may perform better in the early stages of a sustained appreciation expectation, suggesting a potential for market memory to replicate past behaviors [1] - Approximately 19% of industries are expected to see profit margin improvements due to the appreciation of the Renminbi, which will gradually attract investor attention [1] Group 2: Policy Implications and Industry Allocation - Policy responses aimed at curbing rapid unilateral appreciation trends are considered more significant in influencing industry allocation than the appreciation itself [1] - In the context of ongoing Renminbi appreciation, three key drivers for industry allocation should be monitored: short-term memory effects, profit margin changes, and policy changes [1]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：中信证券研究 文|裘翔 高玉森 陈泽平 刘春彤 张铭楷 陈峰 推动人民币升值的因素逐渐增多，市场关注度也开始升温，投资者要逐步适应在一个人民币持续升值的 环境下去做资产配置。从过去20年间7轮人民币升值周期来看，汇率并不是主导行业配置的决定性因 素。然而，部分行业在持续升值预期形成的初期确实会有更好表现，市场可能会复制这样的肌肉记忆， 同时从成本收入分析来看，约19%的行业会因为升值带来利润率提升，这些行业也会逐步被投资者重视 起来。此外，为抑制过快单边升值趋势而做出的政策应对，反而是影响行业配置的更重要因素。行业配 置上，在人民币持续升值的背景下，可以关注短期肌肉记忆驱动、利润率变化驱动以及政策变化驱动三 条线索，我们在本期聚焦详细梳理了潜在受益行业。 推动人民币持续升值的因素逐渐增多， 市场关注度也开始升温 我们认为投资者要逐步开始适应在一个人民币持续升值的环境下去做资产配置。今年前11个月中国的累 计贸易顺差达到1.076万亿美元，同比增长21.7%，创历史新高。更重要的是出口企业的结汇意愿开始不 断上升，今年10月顺差转化 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent activities in the secondary market for Sci-Tech bonds indicate a significant innovation in trading mechanisms, enhancing liquidity and broadening financing channels for technology enterprises [2][3][4][5]. Group 1: Trading Innovations - GF Securities and Industrial Bank executed the first bond lending transaction for Sci-Tech bonds on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, totaling 40 million yuan [2]. - CITIC Securities and Everbright Bank successfully completed a repurchase transaction using "National Development Floating Rate Sci-Tech Bonds" as collateral, amounting to 50 million yuan [4]. - Industrial Bank and Dongfang Securities conducted the first buyout repurchase transaction in the interbank market using "National Development Sci-Tech Bonds" as collateral, with a transaction value of 210 million yuan [5]. Group 2: Market Impact - The introduction of these transactions is expected to enrich the variety of Sci-Tech bond trading, increase market activity, and improve the functionality of the secondary market [2][3][4]. - The People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission have issued guidelines to support the issuance of Sci-Tech bonds, encouraging market participants to finance technology innovation and industrial upgrades [2]. - The successful execution of these transactions is seen as a practical example that enhances the liquidity of Sci-Tech bonds and attracts more market participants [3][4]. Group 3: Institutional Responses - GF Securities aims to leverage its expertise in bond trading to enhance the liquidity and financing capabilities of Sci-Tech bonds, thereby attracting more investors [3]. - CITIC Securities plans to continue focusing on the construction of a trading ecosystem to lower financing costs for Sci-Tech enterprises [4]. - Industrial Bank is committed to expanding the asset utilization range for investors and reducing financing costs for technology enterprises through innovative trading mechanisms [5].

12月20日，中国证监会官网披露，芯和半导体科技（上海）股份有限公司及其辅导券商中信证券向上海 证监局提交了辅导工作完成报告。中信证券在结论中写道：经辅导，中信证券认为，辅导对象具备成为 上市公司应有的公司治理结构、会计基础工作、内部控制制度，充分了解多层次资本市场各板块的特点 和属性；辅导对象及其董事、高级管理人员、持有百分之五以上股份的股东和实际控制人（或其法定代 表人）已全面掌握发行上市、规范运作等方面的法律法规和规则、知悉信息披露和履行承诺等方面的责 任和义务，树立了进入证券、市场的诚信意识、自律意识和法治意识。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent IPOs of Muxi Co. and Moer Thread have set new records for profitability in the A-share market, with significant gains for both investors and underwriting securities firms [1][3]. Group 1: IPO Performance - Muxi Co. achieved a maximum floating profit of approximately 395,200 yuan per share on its first trading day, while Moer Thread reached about 286,900 yuan [1][3]. - The total number of new A-share listings in 2023 has surpassed last year's total, with 105 companies raising a total of 120.99 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of over 80% compared to the previous year [7]. Group 2: Underwriting Revenue - Huatai United Securities, the underwriter for Muxi Co., is expected to earn 268 million yuan in underwriting fees and over 652 million yuan in investment floating profits [3][5]. - CITIC Securities, the underwriter for Moer Thread, anticipates receiving over 100 million yuan in underwriting fees and more than 828 million yuan in investment floating profits [5]. Group 3: Market Trends - The overall IPO market has shown signs of recovery, with a structural improvement emphasized by regulatory support for high-quality expansions in sectors aligned with national strategies [7][9]. - The underwriting and sponsorship fees generated by A-share companies have contributed 5.932 billion yuan to securities firms, marking a growth of over 30% compared to the previous year [7][9]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Leading firms such as CITIC Securities, Huatai United Securities, and Guotai Junan have dominated the underwriting market, with significant shares of the total underwriting fees [9][10]. - The competition among securities firms has shifted from merely securing project numbers to focusing on high-value, high-tech projects, reflecting a change in market dynamics [10]. Group 5: Strategic Investment and Risks - Securities firms have engaged in strategic placements and underwriting, with a total of over 30 billion yuan in floating profits from 16 new stocks on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [11][16]. - The strategic placement system requires underwriters to hold shares for 24 months, introducing uncertainty regarding the realization of floating profits due to market volatility [14][16].